Search results for: sales process ARIMA models

Authors: M. V. Manoj Kumar, Likewin Thomas, Annappa

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Process mining provides methods and techniques for analyzing event logs recorded in modern information systems that support real-world operations. While analyzing an event-log, state-of-the-art techniques available in process mining believe that the operational process as a static entity (stationary). This is not often the case due to the possibility of occurrence of a phenomenon called concept drift. During the period of execution, the process can experience concept drift and can evolve with respect to any of its associated perspectives exhibiting various patterns-of-change with a different pace. Work presented in this paper discusses the main aspects to consider while addressing concept drift phenomenon and proposes a method for detecting and localizing the sudden concept drifts in control-flow perspective of the process by using features extracted by processing the traces in the process log. Our experimental results are promising in the direction of efficiently detecting and localizing concept drift in the context of process mining research discipline.

Keywords: abrupt drift, concept drift, sudden drift, control-flow perspective, detection and localization, process mining

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Authors: E. Gil, A. Zepeda, J. Rivera, C. Ben-Youssef, S. Rincón

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Water pollution has become one of the most serious environmental problems. Multiple methods have been proposed for the removal of Pb(II) from contaminated water. Among these, adsorption processes have shown to be more efficient, cheaper and easier to handle with respect to other treatment methods. However, research for adsorbents with high adsorption capacities is still necessary. For this purpose, we proposed in this work the study of metal-organic Framework [Co2(btec)(bipy)(DMF)2]n (MOF-Co) as adsorbent material of Pb (II) in aqueous media. MOF-Co was synthesized by a simple method. Firstly 4, 4’ dipyridyl, 1,2,4,5 benzenetetracarboxylic acid, cobalt (II) and nitrate hexahydrate were first mixed each one in N,N dimethylformamide (DMF) and then, mixed in a reactor altogether. The obtained solution was heated at 363 K in a muffle during 68 h to complete the synthesis. It was washed and dried, obtaining MOF-Co as the final product. MOF-Co was characterized before and after the adsorption process by Fourier transforms infrared spectra (FTIR) and X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS). The Pb(II) in aqueous media was detected by Absorption Atomic Spectroscopy (AA). In order to evaluate the adsorption process in the presence of Pb(II) in aqueous media, the experiments were realized in flask of 100 ml the work volume at 200 rpm, with different MOF-Co quantities (0.0125 and 0.025 g), pH (2-6), contact time (0.5-6 h) and temperature (298,308 and 318 K). The kinetic adsorption was represented by pseudo-second order model, which suggests that the adsorption took place through chemisorption or chemical adsorption. The best adsorption results were obtained at pH 5. Langmuir, Freundlich and BET equilibrium isotherms models were used to study the adsorption of Pb(II) with 0.0125 g of MOF-Co, in the presence of different concentration of Pb(II) (20-200 mg/L, 100 mL, pH 5) with 4 h of reaction. The correlation coefficients (R2) of the different models show that the Langmuir model is better than Freundlich and BET model with R2=0.97 and a maximum adsorption capacity of 833 mg/g. Therefore, the Langmuir model can be used to best describe the Pb(II) adsorption in monolayer behavior on the MOF-Co. This value is the highest when compared to other materials such as the graphene/activated carbon composite (217 mg/g), biomass fly ashes (96.8 mg/g), PVA/PAA gel (194.99 mg/g) and MOF with Ag12 nanoparticles (120 mg/g).

Keywords: adsorption, heavy metals, metal-organic frameworks, Pb(II)

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Authors: Keneilwe Maremi, Marlien Herselman, Adele Botha

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The main purpose and focus of this paper are to determine the Interoperability Maturity Models to consider when using School Management Systems (SMS). The importance of this is to inform and help schools with knowing which Interoperability Maturity Model is best suited for their SMS. To address the purpose, this paper will apply a scoping review to ensure that all aspects are provided. The scoping review will include papers written from 2012-2019 and a comparison of the different types of Interoperability Maturity Models will be discussed in detail, which includes the background information, the levels of interoperability, and area for consideration in each Maturity Model. The literature was obtained from the following databases: IEEE Xplore and Scopus, the following search engines were used: Harzings, and Google Scholar. The topic of the paper was used as a search term for the literature and the term ‘Interoperability Maturity Models’ was used as a keyword. The data were analyzed in terms of the definition of Interoperability, Interoperability Maturity Models, and levels of interoperability. The results provide a table that shows the focus area of concern for each Maturity Model (based on the scoping review where only 24 papers were found to be best suited for the paper out of 740 publications initially identified in the field). This resulted in the most discussed Interoperability Maturity Model for consideration (Information Systems Interoperability Maturity Model (ISIMM) and Organizational Interoperability Maturity Model for C2 (OIM)).

Keywords: interoperability, interoperability maturity model, school management system, scoping review

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Authors: Abirami Baleswaran, Christel Couderc, Loubnah Belahcen, Jean Dayde, Hélène Tormo, Gwénaëlle Jard

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Cheeses are often reported to be spoiled by Pseudomonas spp., responsible for defects in appearance, texture, taste, and smell, leading to their non-marketing and even their destruction. Despite preventive actions, problems linked to Pseudomonas spp. are difficult to control by the lack of knowledge and control of these contaminants during the cheese manufacturing. Lactic goat cheese producers are not spared by this problem and are looking for solutions to decrease the number of spoiled cheeses. To explore different hypotheses, experiments are needed. However, cheese-making experiments at the pilot scale are expensive and time consuming. Thus, there is a real need to develop a miniature cheeses model system under controlled conditions. In a previous study, several miniature cheese models corresponding to different type of commercial cheeses have been developed for different purposes. The models were, for example, used to study the influence of milk, starters cultures, pathogen inhibiting additives, enzymatic reactions, microflora, freezing process on cheese. Nevertheless, no miniature model was described on the lactic goat cheese. The aim of this work was to develop a miniature cheese model system under controlled laboratory conditions which resembles commercial lactic goat cheese to study Pseudomonas spp. spoilage during the manufacturing and ripening process. First, a protocol for the preparation of miniature cheeses (3.5 times smaller than a commercial one) was designed based on the cheese factorymanufacturing process. The process was adapted from “Rocamadour” technology and involves maturation of pasteurized milk, coagulation, removal of whey by centrifugation, moulding, and ripening in a little scale cellar. Microbiological (total bacterial count, yeast, molds) and physicochemical (pH, saltinmoisture, moisture in fat-free)analyses were performed on four key stages of the process (before salting, after salting, 1st day of ripening, and end of ripening). Factory and miniature cheeses volatilomewere also obtained after full scan Sift-MS cheese analysis. Then, Pseudomonas spp. strains isolated from contaminated cheeses were selected on their origin, their ability to produce pigments, and their enzymatic activities (proteolytic, lecithinasic, and lipolytic). Factory and miniature curds were inoculated by spotting selected strains on the cheese surface. The expression of cheese spoilage was evaluated by counting the level of Pseudomonas spp. during the ripening and by visual observation and under UVlamp. The physicochemical and microbiological compositions of miniature cheeses permitted to assess that miniature process resembles factory process. As expected, differences involatilomes were observed, probably due to the fact that miniature cheeses are made usingpasteurized milk to better control the microbiological conditions and also because the little format of cheese induced probably a difference during the ripening even if the humidity and temperature in the cellar were quite similar. The spoilage expression of Pseudomonas spp. was observed in miniature and factory cheeses. It confirms that the proposed model is suitable for the preparation of miniature cheese specimens in the spoilage study of Pseudomonas spp. in lactic cheeses. This kind of model could be deployed for other applications and other type of cheese.

Keywords: cheese, miniature, model, pseudomonas spp, spoilage

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Authors: Ivan Župan

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Critical infrastructure is essential for the functioning of a country and is designated for special protection by governments worldwide. Due to the increase in smart technology usage in every facet of the industry, including critical infrastructure, the exposure to malicious cyber-physical attacks has grown in the last few years. Proper security measures must be undertaken in order to defend against cyber-physical threats that can disrupt the normal functioning of critical infrastructure and, consequently the functioning of the country. This paper provides a review of the scientific literature of models, methods and technologies used to protect from cyber-physical threats in industries. The focus of the literature was observed from three aspects. The first aspect, resilience, concerns itself with the robustness of the system’s defense against threats, as well as preparation and education about potential future threats. The second aspect concerns security risk management for systems with cyber-physical aspects, and the third aspect investigates available testbed environments for testing developed models on scaled models of vulnerable infrastructure.

Keywords: critical infrastructure, cyber-physical security, smart industry, security methodology, security technology

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Authors: Huimin Zhao, Xiaoquan Liu, Haochen Liu

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The major challenge facing Alzheimer's Disease (AD) drug development is how to effectively improve cognitive function in clinical practice. Growing evidence indicates that stimulating hippocampal neurogenesis is a strategy for restoring cognition in animal models of AD. The mitogen-activated protein kinase (MAPK) pathway is a crucial factor in neurogenesis, which is negatively regulated by Dual-specificity phosphatase 16 (DUSP16). Transcriptome analysis of post-mortem brain tissue revealed up-regulation of DUSP16 expression in AD patients. Additionally, DUSP16 was involved in regulating the proliferation and neural differentiation of neural progenitor cells (NPCs). Nevertheless, whether the effect of DUSP16 on ameliorating cognitive disorders by influencing NPCs differentiation in AD mice remains unclear. Our study demonstrates an association between DUSP16 SNPs and clinical progression in individuals with mild cognitive impairment (MCI). Besides, we found that increased DUSP16 expression in both 3×Tg and SAMP8 models of AD led to NPC differentiation impairments. By silencing DUSP16, cognitive benefits, the induction of AHN and synaptic plasticity, were observed in AD mice. Furthermore, we found that DUSP16 is involved in the process of NPC differentiation by regulating c-Jun N-terminal kinase (JNK) phosphorylation. Moreover, the increased DUSP16 may be regulated by the ETS transcription factor (ELK1), which binds to the promoter region of DUSP16. Loss of ELK1 resulted in decreased DUSP16 mRNA and protein levels. Our data uncover a potential regulatory role for DUSP16 in adult hippocampal neurogenesis and provide a possibility to find the target of AD intervention.

Keywords: alzheimer's disease, cognitive function, DUSP16, hippocampal neurogenesis

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Authors: Muhammad Azam, Micheal Olaolu Arowolo, Fei He, Mihail Popescu, Dong Xu

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The number of biological papers is growing quickly, which means that the number of biological pathway figures in those papers is also increasing quickly. Each pathway figure shows extensive biological information, like the names of genes and how the genes are related. However, manually annotating pathway figures takes a lot of time and work. Even though using advanced image understanding models could speed up the process of curation, these models still need to be made more accurate. To improve gene name recognition from pathway figures, we applied a Siamese network to map image segments to a library of pictures containing known genes in a similar way to person recognition from photos in many photo applications. We used a triple loss function and a triplet spatial pyramid pooling network by combining the triplet convolution neural network and the spatial pyramid pooling (TSPP-Net). We compared VGG19 and VGG16 as the Siamese network model. VGG16 achieved better performance with an accuracy of 93%, which is much higher than OCR results.

Keywords: biological pathway, image understanding, gene name recognition, object detection, Siamese network, VGG

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Authors: Ali Hesari, Arezoo Esmaeeli

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Regarding to dramatic changes of fertility and higher order births during recent decades in Iran, access to knowledge about affecting factors on different birth orders has crucial importance. In this study, According to hierarchical structure of many of social sciences data and the effect of variables of different levels of social phenomena that determine different birth orders in 365 days ending to 1390 census have been explored by multilevel approach. In this paper, 2% individual row data for 1390 census is analyzed by HLM software. Three different hierarchical linear regression models are estimated for data analysis of the first and second, third, fourth and more birth order. Research results displays different outcomes for three models. Individual level variables entered in equation are; region of residence (rural/urban), age, educational level and labor participation status and province level variable is GDP per capita. Results show that individual level variables have different effects in these three models and in second level we have different random and fixed effects in these models.

Keywords: fertility, birth order, hierarchical approach, fixe effects, random effects

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Authors: Naduni Ranasinghe

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E-learning environments are getting more popular than any other due to the impact of COVID19. Even though e-learning is one of the best solutions for the teaching-learning process in the academic process, it’s not without major challenges. Nowadays, machine learning approaches are utilized in the analysis of how behavioral factors lead to better adoption and how they related to better performance of the students in eLearning environments. During the pandemic, we realized the academic process in the eLearning approach had a major issue, especially for the performance of the students. Therefore, an approach that investigates student behaviors in eLearning environments using a data-intensive machine learning approach is appreciated. A hybrid approach was used to understand how each previously told variables are related to the other. A more quantitative approach was used referred to literature to understand the weights of each factor for adoption and in terms of performance. The data set was collected from previously done research to help the training and testing process in ML. Special attention was made to incorporating different dimensionality of the data to understand the dependency levels of each. Five independent variables out of twelve variables were chosen based on their impact on the dependent variable, and by considering the descriptive statistics, out of three models developed (Random Forest classifier, SVM, and Decision tree classifier), random forest Classifier (Accuracy – 0.8542) gave the highest value for accuracy. Overall, this work met its goals of improving student performance by identifying students who are at-risk and dropout, emphasizing the necessity of using both static and dynamic data.

Keywords: academic performance prediction, e learning, learning analytics, machine learning, predictive model

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Authors: Suren Chilingaryan

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We study two models describing a single two-level system coupled to two boson field modes in either a parallel or orthogonal setup. Both models may be feasible for experimental realization through Raman adiabatic driving in cavity QED. We study their ground state configurations; that is, we find the quantum precursors of the corresponding semi-classical phase transitions. We found that the ground state configurations of both models present the same critical coupling as the quantum Rabi model. Around this critical coupling, the ground state goes from the so-called normal configuration with no excitation, the qubit in the ground state and the fields in the quantum vacuum state, to a ground state with excitations, the qubit in a superposition of ground and excited state, while the fields are not in the vacuum anymore, for the first model. The second model shows a more complex ground state configuration landscape where we find the normal configuration mentioned above, two single-mode configurations, where just one of the fields and the qubit are excited, and a dual-mode configuration, where both fields and the qubit are excited.

Keywords: quantum optics, quantum phase transition, cavity QED, circuit QED

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Authors: Sergo Tsiramua, Sulkhan Sulkhanishvili, Elisabed Asabashvili, Lazare Kvirtia

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The paper presents logical-probabilistic methods, models, and algorithms for reliability assessment of complex systems, based on which a web application for structural analysis and reliability assessment of systems was created. It is important to design systems based on structural analysis, research, and evaluation of efficiency indicators. One of the important efficiency criteria is the reliability of the system, which depends on the components of the structure. Quantifying the reliability of large-scale systems is a computationally complex process, and it is advisable to perform it with the help of a computer. Logical-probabilistic modeling is one of the effective means of describing the structure of a complex system and quantitatively evaluating its reliability, which was the basis of our application. The reliability assessment process included the following stages, which were reflected in the application: 1) Construction of a graphical scheme of the structural reliability of the system; 2) Transformation of the graphic scheme into a logical representation and modeling of the shortest ways of successful functioning of the system; 3) Description of system operability condition with logical function in the form of disjunctive normal form (DNF); 4) Transformation of DNF into orthogonal disjunction normal form (ODNF) using the orthogonalization algorithm; 5) Replacing logical elements with probabilistic elements in ODNF, obtaining a reliability estimation polynomial and quantifying reliability; 6) Calculation of “weights” of elements of system. Using the logical-probabilistic methods, models and algorithms discussed in the paper, a special software was created, by means of which a quantitative assessment of the reliability of systems of a complex structure is produced. As a result, structural analysis of systems, research, and designing of optimal structure systems are carried out.

Keywords: complex systems, logical-probabilistic methods, orthogonalization algorithm, reliability of systems, “weights” of elements

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Authors: Salah Alrabeei, Mohammad Yousuf

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The goal of option pricing theory is to help the investors to manage their money, enhance returns and control their financial future by theoretically valuing their options. However, most of the option pricing models have no analytical solution. Furthermore, not all the numerical methods are efficient to solve these models because they have nonsmoothing payoffs or discontinuous derivatives at the exercise price. In this paper, we solve the American option under jump diffusion models by using efficient time-dependent numerical methods. several techniques are integrated to reduced the overcome the computational complexity. Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) algorithm is used as a matrix-vector multiplication solver, which reduces the complexity from O(M2) into O(M logM). Partial fraction decomposition technique is applied to rational approximation schemes to overcome the complexity of inverting polynomial of matrices. The proposed method is easy to implement on serial or parallel versions. Numerical results are presented to prove the accuracy and efficiency of the proposed method.

Keywords: integral differential equations, jump–diffusion model, American options, rational approximation

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Authors: Mikhail V. Khachaturyan

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The article analyzes problems of improving the management systems of the ownership risks in the conditions of the transformation of the Russian economy. Among the main sources of threats business owners should highlight is the inefficiency of the implementation of business models and interaction with hired managers. In this context, it is particularly important to analyze the relationship of business models and ownership risks. The analysis of this problem appears to be relevant for a number of reasons: Firstly, the increased risk appetite of the owner directly affects the business model and the composition of his holdings; secondly, owners with significant stakes in the company are factors in the formation of particular types of risks for owners, for which relations have a significant influence on a firm's competitiveness and ultimately determines its survival; and thirdly, inefficient system of management ownership of risk is one of the main causes of mass bankruptcies, which significantly affects the stable operation of the economy as a whole. The separation of the processes of possession, disposal and use in modern organizations is the cause of not only problems in the process of interaction between the owner and managers in managing the organization as a whole, but also the asymmetric information about the kinds and forms of the main risks. Managers tend to avoid risky projects, inhibit the diversification of the organization's assets, while owners can insist on the development of such projects, with the aim not only of creating new values for themselves and consumers, but also increasing the value of the company as a result of increasing capital. In terms of separating ownership and management, evaluation of projects by the ratio of risk-yield requires preservation of the influence of the owner on the process of development and making management decisions. It is obvious that without a clearly structured system of participation of the owner in managing the risks of their business, further development is hopeless. In modern conditions of forming a risk management system, owners are compelled to compromise between the desire to increase the organization's ability to produce new value, and, consequently, increase its cost due to the implementation of risky projects and the need to tolerate the cost of lost opportunities of risk diversification. Improving the effectiveness of the management of ownership risks may also contribute to the revitalization of creditors on implementation claims to inefficient owners, which ultimately will contribute to the efficiency models of ownership control to exclude variants of insolvency. It is obvious that in modern conditions, the success of the model of the ownership of risk management and audit is largely determined by the ability and willingness of the owner to find a compromise between potential opportunities for expanding the firm's ability to create new value through risk and maintaining the current level of new value creation and an acceptable level of risk through the use of models of diversification.

Keywords: improving, ownership risks, problem, Russia

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Authors: Arūnas Burinskas

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Although Europe is on the threshold of a new industrial revolution called Industry 4.0, many believe that this will increase the flexibility of production, the mass adaptation of products to consumers and the speed of their service; it will also improve product quality and dramatically increase productivity. However, as expected, all the benefits of Industry 4.0 face many of the inevitable changes and challenges they pose. One of them is the inevitable transformation of current competition and business models. This article examines the possible results of competitive conversion from the classic Bertrand and Cournot models to qualitatively new competition based on innovation. Ability to deliver a new product quickly and the possibility to produce the individual design (through flexible and quickly configurable factories) by reducing equipment failures and increasing process automation and control is highly important. This study shows that the ongoing transformation of the competition model is changing the game. This, together with the creation of complex value networks, means huge investments that make it particularly difficult for small and medium-sized enterprises. In addition, the ongoing digitalization of data raises new concerns regarding legal obligations, intellectual property, and security.

Keywords: Bertrand and Cournot Competition, competition model, industry 4.0, industrial organisation, monopolistic competition

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Authors: T. Y. Liu, C. H. Lin, Y. M. Ferng

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Wind energy is one of the clean renewable energy. However, the low frequency (20-200HZ) noise generated from the wind turbine blades, which bothers the residents, becomes the major problem to be developed. It is useful for predicting the aerodynamic noise by flow field and pressure distribution analysis on the wind turbine blades. Therefore, the main objective of this study is to use different turbulence models to analyse the flow field and pressure distributions of the wing blades. Three-dimensional Computation Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulation of the flow field was used to calculate the flow phenomena for the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) Phase VI horizontal axis wind turbine rotor. Two different flow cases with different wind speeds were investigated: 7m/s with 72rpm and 15m/s with 72rpm. Four kinds of RANS-based turbulence models, Standard k-ε, Realizable k-ε, SST k-ω, and v2f, were used to predict and analyse the results in the present work. The results show that the predictions on pressure distributions with SST k-ω and v2f turbulence models have good agreements with experimental data.

Keywords: horizontal axis wind turbine, turbulence model, noise, fluid dynamics

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Authors: Aspasia Koutsokosta, Stefanos Katsavounis

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This paper reviews the model-based qualitative and quantitative Operations Management research in the context of Construction Supply Chain Management (CSCM). Construction industry has been traditionally blamed for low productivity, cost and time overruns, waste, high fragmentation and adversarial relationships. The construction industry has been slower than other industries to employ the Supply Chain Management (SCM) concept and develop models that support the decision-making and planning. However the last decade there is a distinct shift from a project-based to a supply-based approach of construction management. CSCM comes up as a new promising management tool of construction operations and improves the performance of construction projects in terms of cost, time and quality. Modeling the Construction Supply Chain (CSC) offers the means to reap the benefits of SCM, make informed decisions and gain competitive advantage. Different modeling approaches and methodologies have been applied in the multi-disciplinary and heterogeneous research field of CSCM. The literature review reveals that a considerable percentage of CSC modeling accommodates conceptual or process models which discuss general management frameworks and do not relate to acknowledged soft OR methods. We particularly focus on the model-based quantitative research and categorize the CSCM models depending on their scope, mathematical formulation, structure, objectives, solution approach, software used and decision level. Although over the last few years there has been clearly an increase of research papers on quantitative CSC models, we identify that the relevant literature is very fragmented with limited applications of simulation, mathematical programming and simulation-based optimization. Most applications are project-specific or study only parts of the supply system. Thus, some complex interdependencies within construction are neglected and the implementation of the integrated supply chain management is hindered. We conclude this paper by giving future research directions and emphasizing the need to develop robust mathematical optimization models for the CSC. We stress that CSC modeling needs a multi-dimensional, system-wide and long-term perspective. Finally, prior applications of SCM to other industries have to be taken into account in order to model CSCs, but not without the consequential reform of generic concepts to match the unique characteristics of the construction industry.

Keywords: construction supply chain management, modeling, operations research, optimization, simulation

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Authors: Abdellatif Chebboub

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Agricultural production is sensitive to weather and thus directly affected by climate change. Plausible estimates of these climate change impacts require combined use of climate, crop, and economic models. Results from previous studies vary substantially due to differences in models, scenarios, and data. This paper is part of a collective effort to systematically integrate these three types of models. We focus on the economic component of the assessment, investigating how nine global economic models of agriculture represent endogenous responses to seven standardized climate change scenarios produced by two climate and five crop models. These responses include adjustments in yields, area, consumption, and international trade. We apply biophysical shocks derived from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s representative concentration pathway with end-of-century radiative forcing of 8.5 W/m2. The mean biophysical yield effect with no incremental CO2 fertilization is a 17% reduction globally by 2050 relative to a scenario with unchanging climate. Endogenous economic responses reduce yield loss to 11%, increase area of major crops by 11%, and reduce consumption by 3%. Agricultural production, cropland area, trade, and prices show the greatest degree of variability in response to climate change, and consumption the lowest. The sources of these differences include model structure and specification; in particular, model assumptions about ease of land use conversion, intensification, and trade. This study identifies where models disagree on the relative responses to climate shocks and highlights research activities needed to improve the representation of agricultural adaptation responses to climate change.

Keywords: climate change, agriculture, weather change, danger of climate change

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Authors: Neerav Kumar, Naumaan Nayyar, Sharath Kashyap

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Most companies see an increase in the adoption of machine learning (ML) applications across internal and external-facing use cases. ML applications vend output either in batch or real-time patterns. A complete batch ML pipeline architecture comprises data sourcing, feature engineering, model training, model deployment, model output vending into a data store for downstream application. Due to unclear role expectations, we have observed that scientists specializing in building and optimizing models are investing significant efforts into building the other components of the architecture, which we do not believe is the best use of scientists’ bandwidth. We propose a system architecture created using AWS services that bring industry best practices to managing the workflow and simplifies the process of model deployment and end-to-end data integration for an ML application. This narrows down the scope of scientists’ work to model building and refinement while specialized data engineers take over the deployment, pipeline orchestration, data quality, data permission system, etc. The pipeline infrastructure is built and deployed as code (using terraform, cdk, cloudformation, etc.) which makes it easy to replicate and/or extend the architecture to other models that are used in an organization.

Keywords: data pipeline, machine learning, AWS, architecture, batch machine learning

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Authors: Ferhat Demir

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Even if strategic management is highly critical for all types of organizations, only a few maturity models have been proposed in business literature for the area of strategic management activities. This paper updates previous studies and presents a new conceptual model for assessing the maturity of strategic management in any organization. Strategic management maturity model (S-3M) is basically composed of 6 maturity levels with 7 dimensions. The biggest contribution of S-3M is to put innovation into agenda of strategic management. The main objective of this study is to propose a model to align innovation with business strategies. This paper suggests that innovation (breakthrough new products/services and business models) is the only way of creating sustainable growth and strategy studies cannot ignore this aspect. Maturity models should embrace innovation to respond dynamic business environment and rapidly changing customer behaviours.

Keywords: strategic management, innovation, business model, maturity model

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Authors: Hongyu Chen, Li Jiang

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Ubiquitous anomalies endanger the security of our system con- stantly. They may bring irreversible damages to the system and cause leakage of privacy. Thus, it is of vital importance to promptly detect these anomalies. Traditional supervised methods such as Decision Trees and Support Vector Machine (SVM) are used to classify normality and abnormality. However, in some case, the abnormal status are largely rarer than normal status, which leads to decision bias of these methods. Generative adversarial network (GAN) has been proposed to handle the case. With its strong generative ability, it only needs to learn the distribution of normal status, and identify the abnormal status through the gap between it and the learned distribution. Nevertheless, existing GAN-based models are not suitable to process data with discrete values, leading to immense degradation of detection performance. To cope with the discrete features, in this paper, we propose an efficient GAN-based model with specifically-designed loss function. Experiment results show that our model outperforms state-of-the-art models on discrete dataset and remarkably reduce the overhead.

Keywords: GAN, discrete feature, Wasserstein distance, multiple intermediate layers

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Authors: Leah Lee

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This paper examines the correlation between deep learning models and emotions with noises to see whether or not noises mask emotions. The deep learning models used are plain convolutional neural networks (CNN), auto-encoder, long short-term memory (LSTM), and Visual Geometry Group-16 (VGG-16). Emotion datasets used are Ryerson Audio-Visual Database of Emotional Speech and Song (RAVDESS), Crowd-sourced Emotional Multimodal Actors Dataset (CREMA-D), Toronto Emotional Speech Set (TESS), and Surrey Audio-Visual Expressed Emotion (SAVEE). To make it four times bigger, audio set files, stretch, and pitch augmentations are utilized. From the augmented datasets, five different features are extracted for inputs of the models. There are eight different emotions to be classified. Noise variations are white noise, dog barking, and cough sounds. The variation in the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) is 0, 20, and 40. In summation, per a deep learning model, nine different sets with noise and SNR variations and just augmented audio files without any noises will be used in the experiment. To compare the results of the deep learning models, the accuracy and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) are checked.

Keywords: auto-encoder, convolutional neural networks, long short-term memory, speech emotion recognition, visual geometry group-16

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Authors: Jang kyun Cho, Jeong-dong Lee

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The advent of the Internet, mobile communications, and social network services has stimulated social interactions among consumers, allowing people to affect one another’s innovation adoptions by exchanging information more frequently and more quickly. Previous diffusion models, such as the Bass model, however, face limitations in reflecting such recent phenomena in society. These models are weak in their ability to model interactions between agents; they model aggregated-level behaviors only. The agent based model, which is an alternative to the aggregate model, is good for individual modeling, but it is still not based on an economic perspective of social interactions so far. This study assumes the presence of social utility from other consumers in the adoption of innovation and investigates the effect of individual interactions on innovation diffusion by developing a new model called the interaction-based diffusion model. By comparing this model with previous diffusion models, the study also examines how the proposed model explains innovation diffusion from the perspective of economics. In addition, the study recommends the use of a small-world network topology instead of cellular automata to describe innovation diffusion. This study develops a model based on individual preference and heterogeneous social interactions using utility specification, which is expandable and, thus, able to encompass various issues in diffusion research, such as reservation price. Furthermore, the study proposes a new framework to forecast aggregated-level market demand from individual level modeling. The model also exhibits a good fit to real market data. It is expected that the study will contribute to our understanding of the innovation diffusion process through its microeconomic theoretical approach.

Keywords: innovation diffusion, agent based model, small-world network, demand forecasting

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Authors: Dev Ras Pandey, Bharat Mishra, S. K. Tripathi

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Cloud computing is ready to transform the structure of businesses and learning through supplying the real-time applications and provide an immediate help for small to medium sized businesses. The ability to run a hypervisor inside a virtual machine is important feature of virtualization and it is called nested virtualization. In today’s growing field of information technology, many of the virtualization models are available, that provide a convenient approach to implement, but decision for a single model selection is difficult. This paper explains the applications of operating system based virtualization in cloud computing with an appropriate/suitable model with their different specifications and user’s requirements. In the present paper, most popular models are selected, and the selection was based on container and hypervisor based virtualization. Selected models were compared with a wide range of user’s requirements as number of CPUs, memory size, nested virtualization supports, live migration and commercial supports, etc. and we identified a most suitable model of virtualization.

Keywords: virtualization, OS based virtualization, container based virtualization, hypervisor based virtualization

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Authors: Saeid Seddegh, Xiaolin Wang, Alan D. Henderson, Dong Chen, Oliver Oims

Abstract:

The main objective of this research is to study the heat transfer processes and phase change behaviour of a phase change material (PCM) in shell and tube latent heat thermal energy storage (LHTES) systems. The thermal behaviour in a vertical and horizontal shell-and-tube heat energy storage system using a pure thermal conduction model and a combined conduction-convection heat transfer model is compared in this paper. The model is first validated using published experimental data available in literature and then used to study the temperature variation, solid-liquid interface, phase distribution, total melting and solidification time during melting and solidification processes of PCMs. The simulated results show that the combined convection and conduction model can better describe the energy transfer in PCMs during melting process. In contrast, heat transfer by conduction is more significant during the solidification process since the two models show little difference. Also, it was concluded that during the charging process for the horizontal orientation, convective heat transfer has a strong effect on melting of the upper part of the solid PCM and is less significant during melting of the lower half of the solid PCM. However, in the vertical orientation, convective heat transfer is the same active during the entire charging process. In the solidification process, the thermal behavior does not show any difference between horizontal and vertical systems.

Keywords: latent heat thermal energy storage, phase change material, natural convection, melting, shell and tube heat exchanger, melting, solidification

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Authors: S. Belhour, A. K. Ferouani, C. Azizi

Abstract:

In recent years, a considerable effort (experience, numerical simulation, and theoretical prediction models) has characterised by high efficiency and low cost. Then an improved physics analytical model for simulating is proposed. The performance of GaAs MESFETs has been developed for use in device design for high frequency. This model is based on mathematical analysis, and a new approach for the standard model is proposed, this approach allowed to conceive applicable model for MESFET’s operating in the turn-one or pinch-off region and valid for the short-channel and the long channel MESFET’s in which the two dimensional potential distribution contributed by the depletion layer under the gate is obtained by conventional approximation. More ever, comparisons between the analytical models with different values of mobility are proposed, and a good agreement is obtained.

Keywords: analytical, gallium arsenide, MESFET, mobility, models

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Authors: Shahram Keshavarzi

Abstract:

Today, getting good service, having a good time, and leaving the company with good feelings are importanttforbothcustomers and businesses. It has been observed that when customersareexposedtopleasantsmells, their visit times increase by 26%, and theyvisittheaislesfor 3 times longer. Byusingtheeffect of scents on people, it is toensurethatcustomersshopmore, benefit from the service and be satisfied. Intoday'sresearch, visual memory can be 40% effective after a period of 4 months, whileolfactorymemory is 60% moreeffectiveevenafter 1 year. The purpose of the research is thehiddenandeffectivepower of skepticism in the behavior of consumersandtheeffectivestrategy of modern marketing. Special scentsdirectlyaffecttheincrease in sales by influencing the customer's-decision mechanism in purchasing products.

Keywords: modern marketing strategy, scent, scent marketing, consumer behavior

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Authors: Munoz A. Tatiana, Solano R. Brandon, Montes C. Juan, Cierco G. Javier

Abstract:

The hydrodynamic cavitation is a process in which the energy that the fluids have in the phase changes is used. From this energy, local temperatures greater than 5000 °C are obtained where thermal cracking of the fluid molecules takes place. The process applied to heavy oil affects variables such as viscosity, density, and composition, which constitutes an important improvement in the quality of crude oil. In this study, the need to design a software through mathematical integration models of mixing, cavitation, kinetics, and reactor, allows modeling changes in density, viscosity, and composition of a heavy oil crude, when the fluid passes through a hydrodynamic cavitation reactor. In order to evaluate the viability of this technique in the industry, a heavy oil of 18° API gravity, was simulated using naphtha as a hydrogen donor at concentrations of 1, 2 and 5% vol, where the simulation results showed an API gravity increase to 0.77, 1.21 and 1.93° respectively and a reduction viscosity by 9.9, 12.9 and 15.8%. The obtained results allow to have a favorable panorama on this technological development, an appropriate visualization on the generation of innovative knowledge of this technique and the technical-economic opportunity that benefits the development of the hydrocarbon sector related to heavy crude oil that includes the largest world oil production.

Keywords: hydrodynamic cavitation, thermal cracking, hydrogen donor, heavy oil upgrading, simulator

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Authors: Rida Kanwal, Wang Yuhui, Song Weiguo

Abstract:

Wildfires are one of the most prominent threats to ecosystems, human health, and economic activities, with wind acting as a critical driving factor. This study combines machine learning (ML) and remote sensing (RS) to assess the effects of wind on wildfires in Chongqing Province from August 16-23, 2022. Landsat 8 satellite images were used to estimate the difference normalized burn ratio (dNBR), representing prefire and postfire vegetation conditions. Wind data was analyzed through geographic information system (GIS) mapping. Correlation analysis between wind speed and fire radiative power (FRP) revealed a significant relationship. An autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was developed for wind forecasting, and linear regression was applied to determine the effect of wind speed on FRP. The results identified high wind speed as a key factor contributing to the surge in FRP. Wind-rose plots showed winds blowing to the northwest (NW), aligning with the wildfire spread. This model was further validated with data from other provinces across China. This study integrated ML, RS, and GIS to analyze wildfire behavior, providing effective strategies for prediction and management.

Keywords: wildfires, machine learning, remote sensing, wind speed, GIS, wildfire behavior

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Authors: C. Bateira, J. Fernandes, A. Costa

Abstract:

The Douro Demarked Region (DDR) is a production Porto wine region. On the NE of Portugal, the strong incision of the Douro valley developed very steep slopes, organized with agriculture terraces, have experienced an intense and deep transformation in order to implement the mechanization of the work. The old terrace system, based on stone vertical wall support structure, replaced by terraces with earth embankments experienced a huge terrace instability. This terrace instability has important economic and financial consequences on the agriculture enterprises. This paper presents and develops cartographic tools to access the embankment instability and identify the area prone to instability. The priority on this evaluation is related to the use of physically based mathematical models and develop a validation process based on an inventory of the past embankment instability. We used the shallow landslide stability model (SHALSTAB) based on physical parameters such us cohesion (c’), friction angle(ф), hydraulic conductivity, soil depth, soil specific weight (ϱ), slope angle (α) and contributing areas by Multiple Flow Direction Method (MFD). A terraced area can be analysed by this models unless we have very detailed information representative of the terrain morphology. The slope angle and the contributing areas depend on that. We can achieve that propose using digital elevation models (DEM) with great resolution (pixel with 40cm side), resulting from a set of photographs taken by a flight at 100m high with pixel resolution of 12cm. The slope angle results from this DEM. In the other hand, the MFD contributing area models the internal flow and is an important element to define the spatial variation of the soil saturation. That internal flow is based on the DEM. That is supported by the statement that the interflow, although not coincident with the superficial flow, have important similitude with it. Electrical resistivity monitoring values which related with the MFD contributing areas build from a DEM of 1m resolution and revealed a consistent correlation. That analysis, performed on the area, showed a good correlation with R2 of 0,72 and 0,76 at 1,5m and 2m depth, respectively. Considering that, a DEM with 1m resolution was the base to model the real internal flow. Thus, we assumed that the contributing area of 1m resolution modelled by MFD is representative of the internal flow of the area. In order to solve this problem we used a set of generalized DEMs to build the contributing areas used in the SHALSTAB. Those DEMs, with several resolutions (1m and 5m), were built from a set of photographs with 50cm resolution taken by a flight with 5km high. Using this maps combination, we modelled several final maps of terrace instability and performed a validation process with the contingency matrix. The best final instability map resembles the slope map from a DEM of 40cm resolution and a MFD map from a DEM of 1m resolution with a True Positive Rate (TPR) of 0,97, a False Positive Rate of 0,47, Accuracy (ACC) of 0,53, Precision (PVC) of 0,0004 and a TPR/FPR ratio of 2,06.

Keywords: agricultural terraces, cartography, landslides, SHALSTAB, vineyards

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Authors: Saima Nasreen, Uzaira Rafique, Shery Ehrman, Muhammad Aqeel Ashraf

Abstract:

The release of heavy metals into the environment is a potential threat to water and soil quality as well as to plant, animal and human health. In current research work, organically functionalized mesoporous silicates (MSU-H) were prepared by the co-condensation between sodium silicate and oregano alkoxysilanes in the presence of the nonionic surfactant triblock copolymer P104. The surfactant was used as a template for improving the porosity of the hybrid gels. Synthesized materials were characterized by TEM, FT-IR, SEM/EDX, TG, surface area analysis. The surface morphology and textural properties of such materials varied with various kinds of groups in the channels. In this study, removal of some heavy metals ions from aqueous solution by adsorption process was investigated. Batch adsorption studies show that the adsorption capacity of metal ions on the functionalized silicates is more than that on pure MSU-H. Data shows adsorption on synthesized materials is a time efficient process, suggesting adsorption on external surface as well as the mesoporous process. Adsorption models of Langmuir, Freundlich, and Temkin depicted equal goodness for all adsorbents, whereas pseudo 2nd order kinetics is in best agreement with experimental data.

Keywords: heavy metals, mesoporous silica, hybrid, adsorption, freundlich, langmuir, temkin

Procedia PDF Downloads 267