Search results for: external hazard index

Authors: Sirapat Lookrak, Anol Paisal

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Space debris has numerous manifestations, including ferro-metalize and non-ferrous. The electric field will induce negative charges to split from positive charges inside the space debris. In this research, we focus only on conducting materials. The assumption is that the electric charge density of a conducting surface is proportional to the electric field on that surface due to Gauss's Law. We are trying to find the induced charge density from an external electric field perpendicular to a conducting spherical surface. An object is a sphere on which the external electric field is not uniform. The electric field is, therefore, considered locally. The localised spherical surface is a tangent plane, so the Gaussian surface is a very small cylinder, and every point on a spherical surface has its own cylinder. The electric field from a circular electrode has been calculated in near-field and far-field approximation and shown Explanation Touchless maneuvering space debris orbit properties. The electric charge density calculation from a near-field and far-field approximation is done.

Keywords: near-field approximation, far-field approximation, localized Gauss’s law, electric charge density

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Authors: Miguel Angel Calvo Salve

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Building enclosures and façades not only have an aesthetic component they must also ensure thermal comfort and improve the acoustics and air quality in buildings. The role of facades design, its assemblies, and construction are key in developing a greener future in architecture. This research and study focus on the design of a multi-leaves building envelope, with a self-supporting wall of granite slabs. The study will demonstrate the advantages of its use in compare with the hanging stone veneer in a vented cladding system. Using the Design of the School of Music and Theatre of the Atlantic Area in Spain as a case study where the multi-leaves enclosure system consists in a self-supported outer leaf of large granite slabs of 15cm. of thickness, a vent cavity with thermal isolation, a brick wall, and a series of internal layers. The methodology used were simulations and data collected in building. The advantages of the self-supporting wall of granite slabs in the outer leaf (15cm). compared with a hanging stone veneer in a vented cladding system can summarize the goals as follows: Using the stone in more natural way, by compression. The weight of the stone slabs goes directly to a strip-footing and don't overload the reinforced concrete structure of the building. The weight of the stone slabs provides an external aerial soundproofing, preventing the sound transmission to the structure. The thickness of the stone slabs is enough to provide the external waterproofing of the building envelope. The self-supporting system with minimum anchorages allows having a continuous and external thermal isolation without thermal bridges. The thickness of ashlars masonry provides a thermal inertia that balances the temperatures between day and night in the external thermal insulation layer. The absence of open joints gives the quality of a continuous envelope transmitting the sensations of the stone, the heaviness in the facade, the rhythm of the music and the sequence of the theatre. The main cost of stone due his bigger thickness is more than compensated with the reduction in assembly costs. Don´t need any substructure systems for hanging stone veneers.

Keywords: self-supporting wall, stone cladding systems, hanging veneer cladding systems, sustainability of facade systems

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Authors: Arsalan Ghaderi

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Introduction: Inactivity is one of the most important risk factors for cardiovascular disease. According to the study prevalence of inactivity in Iran, about 67.5% and in the staff, and especially nurses, are similar. The inflammatory index (HS-CRP) is highly predictive of the progression of these diseases. Physical activity education is very important in preventing these diseases. One of the modern educational methods is web-based theory-based education. Methods: This is a semi-experimental interventional study which was conducted in Isfahan and Kurdistan universities of medical sciences in two stages. A cross-sectional study was done to determine the status of physical activity and its predictive factors. Then, intervention was performed, and six months later the data were retrieved. The data was collected using a demographic questionnaire, an integrative model of behavior prediction constructs, a standard physical activity questionnaire and (HS-CRP) test. Data were analyzed by SPSS software. Results: Physical activity was low in 66.6% of nurses, 25.4% were moderate and 8% severe. According to Pearson correlation matrix, the highest correlation was found between behavioral intention and skill structures (0.553**), subjective norms (0.222**) and self-efficacy (0.198**). The relationship between age and physical activity in the first study was reverse and significant. After intervention, there was a significant change in attitudes, self-efficacy, skill and behavioral intention in the intervention group. This change was significant in attitudes, self-efficacy and environmental conditions of the control group. HS-CRP index decreased significantly after intervention in both groups, but there was not a significant relationship between inflammatory index and physical activity score. The change in physical activity level was significant only in the control group. Conclusion: Despite the effect of educational intervention on attitude, self-efficacy, skill, and behavioral intention, the results showed that if factors such as environmental factors are not corrected, training and changing structures cannot lead to physical activity behavior. On the other hand, no correlation between physical activity and HS-CRP showed that this index can be influenced by other factors, and this should be considered in any intervention to reduce the HS-CRP index.

Keywords: HS-CRP, integrative model of behavior prediction, physical activity, nurses, web-based education

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Authors: Huiqiang Yang, Domingo Santana

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This paper proposes a novel configuration which introduces a natural draft dry cooling tower system in a molten salt power tower. A three-dimensional numerical modeling was developed based on the novel configuration. A plan of building 20 new concentrating solar power plants has been announced by Chinese government in September 2016, and among these 20 new plants, most of them are located in regions with long winter and harsh winter climate. The innovative configuration proposed includes an external receiver concrete tower at the center, a natural draft dry cooling tower which is surrounding the external receiver concrete tower and whose shell is fixed on the external receiver concrete tower, and a power block (including a steam generation system, a steam turbine system and hot/cold molten salt tanks, and water treatment systems) is covered by the roof of the natural draft dry cooling tower. Heat exchanger bundles are vertically installed at the furthest edge of the power block. In such a way, all power block equipment operates under suitable environmental conditions through whole year operation. The monthly performance of the novel configuration is simulated as compared to a standard one. The results show that the novel configuration is much more efficient in each separate month in a typical meteorological year. Moreover, all systems inside the power block have less thermal losses at low ambient temperatures, especially in harsh winter climate. It is also worthwhile mentioning that a photovoltaic power plant can be installed on the roof of the cooling tower to reduce the parasites of the molten salt power tower.

Keywords: molten salt power tower, natural draft dry cooling, commercial scale, power block, harsh winter climate

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Authors: Serge Provost, Abdous Saboor

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A q-analogue of the generalized extreme value distribution which includes the Gumbel distribution is introduced. The additional parameter q allows for increased modeling flexibility. The resulting distribution can have a finite, semi-infinite or infinite support. It can also produce several types of hazard rate functions. The model parameters are determined by making use of the method of maximum likelihood. It will be shown that it compares favourably to three related distributions in connection with the modeling of a certain hydrological data set.

Keywords: extreme value theory, generalized extreme value distribution, goodness-of-fit statistics, Gumbel distribution

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Authors: Bhawesh Kumar, A. P. Krishna

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There are continuous changes upon earth’s surface by a variety of natural and anthropogenic agents cut, carry away and depositing of minerals from land. Running water has higher capacity of erosion than other geomorphologic agents. This research work has been carried out on Ganga River, whose channel is continuously changing under the influence of geomorphic agents and human activities in the surrounding regions. The main focus is to study morphological characteristics and sand dynamics of Ganga River with particular emphasis on bank lines and width changes using remote sensing and GIS techniques. The advance remote sensing data and topographical data were interpreted for obtaining 52 years of changes. For this, remote sensing data of different years (LANDSAT TM 1975, 1988, 1993, ETM 2005 and ETM 2012) and toposheet of SOI for the year 1960 were used as base maps for this study. Sinuosity ratio, braiding index and migratory activity index were also established. It was found to be 1.16 in 1975 and in 1988, 1993, 2005 and 2005 it was 1.09, 1.11, 1.1, 1.09 respectively. The analysis also shows that the minimum value found in 1960 was in reach 1 and maximum value is 4.8806 in 2012 found in reach 4 which suggests creation of number of islands in reach 4 for the year 2012. Migratory activity index (MAI), which is a standardized function of both length and time, was computed for the 8 representative reaches. MAI shows that maximum migration was in 1975-1988 in reach 6 and 7 and minimum migration was in 1993-2005. From the channel change analysis, it was found that the shifting of bank line was cyclic and the river Ganges showed a trend of southward maximum values. The advanced remote sensing data and topographical data helped in obtaining 52 years changes in the river due to various natural and manmade activities like flood, water velocity and excavation, removal of vegetation cover and fertile soil excavation for the various purposes of surrounding regions.

Keywords: braided index, migratory activity index (MAI), Ganga river, river morphology

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Authors: Gurleen Kaur

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Being tall-short, fat-thin, black-white, etc. is an inevitable part of how people perceive you. This association of people with your external appearance carves out an identity for you. This paper will look at the reasons why people relate a person to a particular categorization on the basis of his/her physical appearance. The paper delves into reasons for this categorization into groups: Subconscious grouping, personal gain, ease of relating to the group, and social acceptance. Development of certain unique physical features also leads to a person relating himself to a collective identity. Thus, this paper will support the fact that physical appearance plays a crucial role in categorization of people into groups and hence forming a group identity for them. This paper is divided into three parts. The first part will discuss what physical appearance is and how is it linked to our daily lives. The second part will talk about why it works i.e. why this factor of external appearance is important in formation of identity. The last part will talk about the factors which lead to categorization of identity because of physical appearance.

Keywords: group identity, physical appearance, subconscious grouping, collective identity

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Authors: P. Sutipan, U. Intarakamhang

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The purpose of this study was to assess and prioritize the order of needs with regard to the healthy lifestyle behaviors for older adults living with hypertension. The participants involved 400 hypertensive elderly individuals in Chiang Mai, Thailand. The research instrument was a 26-item needs-assessment questionnaire in a dual response format on a four-level rating scale. The data was analyzed with the use of descriptive statistics and the needs were ranked using the Modified Priority Needs Index (PNIModified). The results indicated that the three priorities of healthy lifestyle behavior were healthy eating (PNImodified = 0.36), exercise (PNImodified = 0.35), and social contribution (PNImodified = 0.34), respectively. The implications of the findings for planning the intervention phase of the project are of particular interest.

Keywords: needs assessment, the modified priority needs index (PNIModified), healthy lifestyle behavior, older adults

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Authors: Pinky Mae O. De Leon, Franchezka S. P. Flores

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This study focuses on applying an enhanced density-based spatial clustering algorithm with noise for fire risk assessments and warnings in Metro Manila. Unlike other clustering algorithms, DBSCAN is known for its ability to identify arbitrary-shaped clusters and its resistance to noise. However, its performance diminishes when handling high dimensional data, wherein it can read the noise points as relevant data points. Also, the algorithm is dependent on the parameters (eps & minPts) set by the user; choosing the wrong parameters can greatly affect its clustering result. To overcome these challenges, the study proposes three key enhancements: first is to utilize multiple MinHash and locality-sensitive hashing to decrease the dimensionality of the data set, second is to implement Jaccard Similarity before applying the parameter Epsilon to ensure that only similar data points are considered neighbors, and third is to use the concept of Jaccard Neighborhood along with the parameter MinPts to improve in classifying core points and identifying noise in the data set. The results show that the modified DBSCAN algorithm outperformed three other clustering methods, achieving fewer outliers, which facilitated a clearer identification of fire-prone areas, high Silhouette score, indicating well-separated clusters that distinctly identify areas with potential fire hazards and exceptionally achieved a low Davies-Bouldin Index and a high Calinski-Harabasz score, highlighting its ability to form compact and well-defined clusters, making it an effective tool for assessing fire hazard zones. This study is intended for assessing areas in Metro Manila that are most prone to fire risk.

Keywords: DBSCAN, clustering, Jaccard similarity, MinHash LSH, fires

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Authors: Zhang Jun Xiong

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Objective: To explore the effect of physical exercise and outdoor lighting on the improvement of pupils' eyesight. Methods: A total of 208 first grade students in a primary school in Chengdu were enrolled in the study, 104 of whom were nearsighted and 104 had normal vision. They were randomly divided into indoor exercise group, outdoor exercise group, indoor control group and outdoor control group. Indoor and outdoor exercise groups performed moderate and high-intensity aerobic exercise three times a week, 60 minutes each time; The indoor and outdoor control groups had normal study and life during the experiment, without exercise intervention. The experiment lasted for one academic year, and the visual indicators of the subjects were tested before and after the experiment. Results: After the experiment, the visual fatigue index of the subjects with normal vision in the outdoor exercise group, indoor exercise group and outdoor control group decreased by 1.5 ± 2.89, 1.4 ± 3.05, 2.12 ± 2.66 respectively, and the diopter index decreased by 0.30D ± 0.09, 0.41D ± 0.16, 0.40D ± 0.19 respectively, while the visual fatigue score of the subjects with normal vision in the indoor control group increased by 2.3 ± 2.15, and the diopter decreased by 0.53D ± 0.22, There were significant differences in visual fatigue and diopter among the subjects with normal vision in each group (P<0.001). After the experiment, the visual fatigue index of the myopic subjects in the outdoor exercise group, indoor exercise group and outdoor control group decreased by 1.8 ± 1.95, 0.8 ± 1.81, 1.1 ± 1.85 respectively, and the diopter index decreased by 0.35D ± 0.21, 0.52D ± 0.24, 0.52D ± 0.15 respectively, while the visual fatigue score of the myopic subjects in the indoor control group increased by 1.3 ± 2.66, and the diopter decreased by 0.62D ± 0.29. There were significant differences between groups in visual fatigue and diopter (P<0.001). Conclusion: Both physical exercise and outdoor lighting can have a beneficial effect on children's vision, and the superposition effect of the two is better. It is suggested that outdoor physical exercise should be carried out more in primary school.

Keywords: physical exercise, outdoor lighting, pupil, vision, myopia

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Authors: Mahdi Nasiri Tabrizi, A. Dadkhah, M. Khirkhah

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In order to study the effect of planting on yield, yield components and quality traits in bread and durum wheat varieties, a field split-plot experiment based on complete randomized design with three replications was conducted in Agricultural and Natural Resources Research Center of Razavi Khorasan located in city of Mashhad during 2013-2014. Main factor were consisted of five sowing dates (first October, fifteenth December, first March, tenth March, twentieth March) and as sub-factors consisted of different bread wheat (Bahar, Pishgam, Pishtaz, Mihan, Falat and Karim) and two durum wheat (Dena and Dehdasht). According to results of analysis variance the effect of planting date was significant on all examined traits (grain yield, biological yield, harvest index, number of grain per spike, thousands kernel weight, number of spike per square meter, plant height, the number of days to heading, the number of days to maturity, during the grain filling period, percentage of wet gluten, percentage of dry gluten, gluten index, percentage of protein). By delay in planting, majority of traits significantly decreased, except quality traits (percentage of wet gluten, percentage of dry gluten and percentage of protein). Results of means comparison showed, among planting date the highest grain yield and biological yield were related to first planting date (Octobr) with mean of production of 5/6 and 1/17 tons per hectare respectively and the highest bread quality (gluten index) with mean of 85 and percentage of protein with mean of 13% to fifth planting date also the effect of genotype was significant on all traits. The highest grain yield among of studied wheat genotypes was related to Dehdasht cultivar with an average production of 4.4 tons per hectare. The highest protein percentage and bread quality (gluten index) were related to Dehdasht cultivar with 13.4% and Falat cultivar with number of 90 respectively. The interaction between cultivar and planting date was significant on all traits and different varieties had different trend for these traits. The highest grain yield was related to first planting date (October) and Falat cultivar with an average of production of 6/7 tons per hectare while in grain yield did not show a significant different with Pishtas and Mihan cultivars also the most of gluten index (bread quality index) and protein percentage was belonged to the third planting date and Karim cultivar with 7.98 and Dena cultivar with 7.14% respectively.

Keywords: yield component, yield, planting date, cultivar, quality traits, wheat

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Authors: Clara T. Fatoye, April Betts, Abayomi Odeyemi, Francis A. Fatoye, Isaac O. Odeyemi

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Background: The post-launch stage is the last stage in the development of a pharmaceutical product. It is important to involve patients in the development of pharmaceutical products at the post-launch stage, as patients are the end-users of pharmaceutical products. It is expected that involving them might ensure an effective working relationship among the various stakeholders. However, involving patients in the development of pharmaceutical products comes with its problems. Hence, this study examined how to resolve problems experienced by involving patients in the developments of pharmaceutical products’ at post-launch consisting of Positioning of pharmaceutical products (POPP), detailing of pharmaceutical products (DOPP) and reimbursement and Formulary Submission (R&FS). Methods: A questionnaire was used for the present study. It was administered at the ISPOR Glasgow 2017 to 104 participants, all of which were professionals from Market access (MA) and health economics and outcomes research (HEOR) backgrounds. They were asked how the issues experienced by patients can be resolved. Participants responded under six domains as follows: communication, cost, effectiveness, external factors, Quality of life (QoL) and safety. Thematic analysis was carried out to identify strategies to resolve issues experienced by patients at the post-launch stage. Results: Three (3) factors cut across at POPP, DOPP, and R&FS that is (external factors, communication and QoL). The first resolution method was an external factor that is, the relationship with stakeholders and policymakers. Communication was also identified as a resolution method that can help to resolve problems experienced by patients at the post-launch stage. The third method was QoL as perceived by the patients based on professionals’ opinions. Other strategies that could be used to resolve problems experienced were the effectiveness of pharmaceutical products at the DOPP level and cost at R&FS. Conclusion: The study showed that focusing on external factors, communication, and patients’ QoL are methods for resolving issues experienced by involving patients at the post-launch stage of pharmaceutical product development. Hence, effective working relationships between patients, policymakers and stakeholders may help to resolve problems experienced at the post-launch stage. Healthcare policymakers are to be aware of these findings as they may help them to put appropriate strategies in place to enhance the involvement of patients in pharmaceutical product development at the post-launch stage, thereby improving the health outcomes of the patients.

Keywords: patients, pharmaceutical products, post-launch stage, quality of life, QoL

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Authors: Jeong Hong Kim, Ju Wan Kang

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Objective: Histamine skin prick testing is most commonly used to diagnose immunoglobulin E (IgE)-mediated allergic diseases, and histamine reactivity is used as a standardized positive control in the interpretation of a skin prick test. However, reactivity to histamine differs among individuals for reasons that are poorly understood. The present study aimed to evaluate the potential association between body mass index (BMI) and histamine skin reactivity in children. Methods: A total of 451 children (246 boys, 205 girls) aged 7–8 years were enrolled in this study. The skin prick test was performed with 26 aeroallergens commonly found in Korea. Other information was collected, including sex, age, BMI, parental allergy history, and parental smoking status. Multivariate analysis was used to confirm the association between histamine skin reactivity and BMI. Results: The histamine wheal size was revealed to be associated with BMI (Spearman's Rho 0.161, p < 0.001). This association was confirmed by multivariate analysis, after adjusting for sex, age, parental allergy history, parental smoking status, and allergic sensitization (coefficient B 0.071, 95% confidence interval 0.030–0.112). Conclusions: Skin responses to histamine were primarily correlated with increased BMI. Further studies are needed to understand the clinical implication of BMI when interpreting the results of skin prick test.

Keywords: allergy, body mass index, histamine, skin prick test

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Authors: Abul Shamsuddin

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The Islamic stock market indices are constructed by screening out stocks that are incompatible with Islam’s prohibition of interest and certain lines of business. This study examines the effects of Islamic screening on the risk-return characteristics of Islamic vis-a-vis mainstream equity portfolios. We use data on Dow Jones Islamic market indices and FTSE Global Islamic indices over 1993-2013. We observe that Islamic equity indices outperform their mainstream counterparts in both raw and risk-adjusted returns. In addition, Islamic equity indices are more resilient to turbulence in international markets than that of their mainstream counterparts. The findings are robust across a variety of portfolio performance measures.

Keywords: Dow Jones Islamic market index, FTSE global Islamic index, ethical investment, finance

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Authors: Iman Nezamzadeh, Ali Faghih, Behnam Oveisi

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In order to reduce earthquake hazards in urban areas, it is necessary to perform comprehensive studies to understand the dynamics of the active faults and identify potentially high risk areas. The fault slip-rates in Late Quaternary sediment are critical indicators of seismic hazard and also provide valuable data to recognize young crustal deformations. To measure slip-rates accurately, is needed to displacement of geomorphic markers and ages of quaternary sediment samples of alluvial deposit that deformed by movements on fault. In this study we produced information about Intermediate term slip rate of Sabzpushan Fault Zone (SPF) within the central part of the Zagros Mountains of Iran using OSL dating technique to make better analysis of seismic hazard and seismic risk reduction for Shiraz city. For this purpose identifiable geomorphic fluvial surfaces help us to provide a reference frame to determine differential or absolute horizontal and vertical deformation. Optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) is an alternative and independent method of determining the burial age of mineral grains in Quaternary sediments. Field observation and satellite imagery show geomorphic markers that deformed horizontally along the Sabzpoushan Fault. Here, drag folds is forming because of evaporites material of Miocen Formation. We estimate 2.8±0.5 mm/yr (mm/y) horizontal slip rate along the Sabzpushan fault zone, where ongoing deformation is involve with drug folding. The Soltan synclinal structure, close to the Sabzpushan fault, shows slight uplift rate due to active core-extrousion.

Keywords: slip rate, active tectonics, OSL, geomorphic markers, Sabzpushan Fault Zone, Zagros, Iran

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Authors: Qurratulain Safdar

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Drought is a temporary aberration in contrast to aridity, as it is a permanent feature of climate. Virtually, it takes place in all types of climatic regions that range from high to low rainfall areas. Due to the wide latitudinal extent of Pakistan, there is seasonal and annual variability in rainfall. The south-central part of the country is arid and hyper-arid. This study focuses on the spatio-temporal analysis of droughts in arid and hyperarid region of Cholistan using the standardized precipitation index (SPI) approach. This study has assessed the extent of recurrences of drought and its temporal vulnerability to drought in Cholistan region. Initially, the paper described the geographic setup of the study area along with a brief description of the drought conditions that prevail in Pakistan. The study also provides a scientific foundation for preparing literature and theoretical framework in-line with the selected parameters and indicators. Data were collected both from primary and secondary data sources. Rainfall and temperature data were obtained from Pakistan Meteorology Department. By applying geostatistical approach, a standardized precipitation index (SPI) was calculated for the study region, and the value of spatio-temporal variability of drought and its severity was explored. As a result, in-depth spatial analysis of drought conditions in Cholistan area was found. Parallel to this, drought-prone areas with seasonal variation were also identified using Kriging spatial interpolation techniques in a GIS environment. The study revealed that there is temporal variation in droughts' occurrences both in time series and SPI values. The paper is finally concluded, and strategic plan was suggested to minimize the impacts of drought.

Keywords: Cholistan desert, climate anomalies, metrological droughts, standardized precipitation index

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Authors: A. Mavrikos, N. Petsas, E. Kaltsi, D. Kaliampakos

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The lignite-fired power plants in the Western Macedonia Lignite Center produce more than 8 106 t of fly ash per year. Approximately 90% of this quantity is used for restoration-reclamation of exhausted open-cast lignite mines and slope stabilization of the overburden. The purpose of this work is to evaluate the environmental behavior of the mixture of waste rock and fly ash that is being used in the external deposition site of the South Field lignite mine. For this reason, a borehole was made within the site and 86 samples were taken and subjected to chemical analyses and leaching tests. The results showed very limited leaching of trace elements and heavy metals from this mixture. Moreover, when compared to the limit values set for waste acceptable in inert waste landfills, only few excesses were observed, indicating only minor risk for groundwater pollution. However, due to the complexity of both the leaching process and the contaminant pathway, more boreholes and analyses should be made in nearby locations and a systematic groundwater monitoring program should be implemented both downstream and within the external deposition site.

Keywords: co-deposition, fly ash, leaching tests, lignite, waste rock

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Authors: Kriti Singh, Saurabh Tripathi, Pankaj Chaudhary, Abid Ali Ansari, Seema Nigam

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Introduction: The introduction of android and iOS has changed our lives dramatically over the past few years. The new generation is more dependent on their mobile phones for carrying out their daily pursuits. Smartphones have revolutionized our lives. The cutdown in rates of mobile network services has been affecting us drastically. A new type of dependence is seen among the people for Smartphones. A cross-sectional study was conducted to determine the state of addiction among the group of medical students, along with its association with sleep hygiene and anxiety. Material and Method: Study included 50 individuals in the age group of 18-35 years. Smartphone Addiction Scale Short Version, Sleep Hygiene Index, and Perceived Stress Scales were used conducting the study. Results: Mean age of 22 years (12%). The majority of subjects were 20-year olds (15 out of 50), the majority were males with few females. Mean Smartphone addiction score 39 (very severe), Mean Sleep Hygiene Index score 26.76 (moderate maladaptive hygiene and Mean Perceived Stress score of 19.92 (moderate stress). Conclusion: In majority students were found to have a very severe Smartphone Addiction with moderate sleep hygiene and a moderate level of perceived stress. The Smartphone was being used was for surfing social media applications.

Keywords: addiction perceived stress, sleep hygiene index, smartphone

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Authors: Amin AminiKhafri, James M. Dawson-Edwards, Ryan M. Simpson, Simaan M. AbouRizk

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Earned value management (EVM) has been introduced as an integrated method to combine schedule, budget, and work breakdown structure (WBS). EVM provides various indices to demonstrate project performance including the cost performance index (CPI). CPI is also used to forecast final project cost at completion based on the cost performance during the project execution. Knowing the final project cost during execution can initiate corrective actions, which can enhance project outputs. CPI, however, is not constant during the project, and calculating the final project cost using a variable index is an inaccurate and challenging task for practitioners. Since CPI is based on the cumulative progress values and because of the learning curve effect, CPI variation dampens and stabilizes as project progress. Although various definitions for the CPI stability have been proposed in literature, many scholars have agreed upon the definition that considers a project as stable if the CPI at 20% completion varies less than 0.1 from the final CPI. While 20% completion point is recognized as the stability point for military development projects, construction projects stability have not been studied. In the current study, an empirical study was first conducted using construction project data to determine the stability point for construction projects. Early findings have demonstrated that a majority of construction projects stabilize towards completion (i.e., after 70% completion point). To investigate the effect of CPI stability on cost forecast accuracy, the correlation between CPI stability and project cost at completion forecast accuracy was also investigated. It was determined that as projects progress closer towards completion, variation of the CPI decreases and final project cost forecast accuracy increases. Most projects were found to have 90% accuracy in the final cost forecast at 70% completion point, which is inlined with findings from the CPI stability findings. It can be concluded that early stabilization of the project CPI results in more accurate cost at completion forecasts.

Keywords: cost performance index, earned value management, empirical study, final project cost

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Authors: Fernando Seabra, Giulia P. Flores, Karolina C. Gomes

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Trade liberalizations measures, as import tariff cuts, are not a sufficient trigger for trade growth. Given that price margins are narrow, traders and cargo operators tend to opt out of markets where the process of goods clearance is slow and costly. Excess paperwork and slow customs dispatch not only lead to institutional breakdowns and corruption but also to increasing transaction cost and trade constraints. The objective of this paper is, therefore, two-fold: First, to evaluate the relationship between institutional and infrastructural performance indexes and trade growth in container throughput; and, second, to investigate the causes for differences in container demurrage and detention fees in Latin American countries (using other emerging countries as benchmarking). The analysis is focused on manufactured goods, typically transported by containers. Institutional and infrastructure bottlenecks and, therefore, the country logistics efficiency – measured by the Logistics Performance Index (LPI, World Bank-WB) – are compared with other indexes, such as the Doing Business index (WB) and the Corruption Perception Index (Transparency International). The main results based on the comparison between Latin American countries and the others emerging countries point out in that the growth in containers trade is directly related to LPI performance. It has also been found that the main hypothesis is valid as aspects that more specifically identify trade facilitation and corruption are significant drivers of logistics performance. The exam of port efficiency (demurrage and detention fees) has demonstrated that not necessarily higher level of efficiency is related to lower charges; however, reductions in fees have been more significant within non-Latin American emerging countries.

Keywords: corruption, logistics performance index, container throughput, Latin America

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Authors: Elena Tkachenko, Elena Rogova, Daria Koval

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The paper examines the ways of cash flows forecasting in the dynamic external environment. The so-called new reality in economy lowers the predictability of the companies’ performance indicators due to the lack of long-term steady trends in external conditions of development and fast changes in the markets. The traditional methods based on the trend analysis lead to a very high error of approximation. The macroeconomic situation for the last 10 years is defined by continuous consequences of financial crisis and arising of another one. In these conditions, the instruments of forecasting on the basis of fuzzy sets show good results. The fuzzy sets based models turn out to lower the error of approximation to acceptable level and to provide the companies with reliable cash flows estimation that helps to reach the financial stability. In the paper, the applicability of the model of cash flows forecasting based on fuzzy logic was analyzed.

Keywords: cash flow, industrial enterprise, forecasting, fuzzy sets

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Authors: Baqir Khawari

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This study has been undertaken to investigate the impact of remittances on household poverty and inequality using OLS and Logit Models with a strictly multi-random sampling method. The result of the OLS model reveals that if the per capita international remittances increase by 1%, then it is estimated that the per capita income will increase by 0.071% and 0.059% during 2019/20 and 2020/21, respectively. In addition, a 1% increase in external remittances results in a 0.0272% and 0.025% reduction in per capita depth of poverty and a 0.0149% and 0.0145% decrease in severity of poverty during 2019/20 and 2020/21, respectively. It is also shown that the effect of external remittances on poverty is greater than internal remittances. In terms of inequality, the result represents that remittances reduced the Gini coefficient by 2% and 7% during 2019/20 and 2020/21, respectively. Further, it is bold that COVID-19 negatively impacts the amount of received remittances by households, thus resulting in a reduction in the size of the effect of remittances. Therefore, a concerted effort of effective policies and governance and international assistance is imperative to address this prolonged problem.

Keywords: migration, remittances, poverty, inequality, COVID-19, Afghanistan

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Authors: Ben-Caleb Egbide, Iyoha Francis, Egharevba Mathew, Oduntan Emmanuel

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The prosperity of any nation is determined not just by the availability of resources, but also by the discipline exercised in the management of those resources. This paper examines the functional association between adherence to budgetary estimates or budget discipline (BDISC) and national prosperity proxied by Real Gross Domestic Product (RGDP) and Relative Poverty Index (RPI)/Human Development Index (HDI). Adopting a longitudinal retrospective research strategy, time series data relating to both the endogenous and exogenous variables were extracted from official government publications for 36 years’ (1980-2015 in the case of RGDP and RPI), and for 26 years (1990-2015 in the case of HDI). Ordinary Least Square (OLS), as well as cointegration regressions, were employed to gauge both the short term and long term impact of BDISC on RPI/HDI and RGDP. The results indicated that BDISC is directly related with RGDP but indirectly related with RPI. The implication is that while adherence to budgetary estimate can enhance economic growth, it has the capacity to slow down the rate of poverty in the long run. The paper, therefore, recommend stricter adherence to budgets as a way out of economic under performance in Nigeria and engender the process of promoting human development and national prosperity.

Keywords: budget discipline, human development index, national prosperity, Nigeria

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Authors: Rubab Ammad, Abdelgadir Abuelgasim

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UAE typically lies in one of the aridest regions of the world and is thus home to geologic features common to such climatic conditions including vast open deserts, sand dunes, saline soils, inland Sabkha and coastal Sabkha. Sabkha are characteristic salt flats formed in arid environment due to deposition and precipitation of salt and silt over sand surface because of low laying water table and rates of evaporation exceeding rates of precipitation. The study area, which comprises of western UAE, is heavily concentrated with inland Sabkha. Remote sensing is conventionally used to study the soil salinity of agriculturally degraded lands but not so broadly for Sabkha. The focus of this study was to identify these highly saline Sabkha areas on remotely sensed data, using salinity indices. The existing salinity indices in the literature have been designed for agricultural soils and they have not frequently used the spectral response of short-wave infra-red (SWIR1 and SWIR2) parts of electromagnetic spectrum. Using Landsat 8 OLI data and field ground truthing, this study formulated indices utilizing NIR-SWIR parts of spectrum and compared the results with existing salinity indices. Most indices depict reasonably good relationship between salinity and spectral index up until a certain value of salinity after which the reflectance reaches a saturation point. This saturation point varies with index. However, the study findings suggest a role of incorporating near infra-red and short-wave infra-red in salinity index with a potential of showing a positive relationship between salinity and reflectance up to a higher salinity value, compared to rest.

Keywords: Sabkha, salinity index, saline soils, Landsat 8, SWIR1, SWIR2, UAE desert

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Authors: Lina Psarra, Manogj Sundaresan, Purjeet Sutar

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In response to the global imperative for sustainable solutions, this article proposes the development of a comprehensive circularity index applicable to a wide range of products across various industries. The absence of a consensus on using a universal metric to assess circularity performance presents a significant challenge in prioritizing and effectively managing sustainable initiatives. This circularity index serves as a quantitative measure to evaluate the adherence of products, processes, and systems to the principles of a circular economy. Unlike traditional distinct metrics such as recycling rates or material efficiency, this index considers the entire lifecycle of a product in one single metric, also incorporating additional factors such as reusability, scarcity of materials, reparability, and recyclability. Through a systematic approach and by reviewing existing metrics and past methodologies, this work aims to address this gap by formulating a circularity index that can be applied to diverse product portfolio and assist in comparing the circularity of products on a scale of 0%-100%. Project objectives include developing a formula, designing and implementing a pilot tool based on the developed Product Circularity Index (PCI), evaluating the effectiveness of the formula and tool using real product data, and assessing the feasibility of integration into various sustainability initiatives. The research methodology involves an iterative process of comprehensive research, analysis, and refinement where key steps include defining circularity parameters, collecting relevant product data, applying the developed formula, and testing the tool in a pilot phase to gather insights and make necessary adjustments. Major findings of the study indicate that the PCI provides a robust framework for evaluating product circularity across various dimensions. The Excel-based pilot tool demonstrated high accuracy and reliability in measuring circularity, and the database proved instrumental in supporting comprehensive assessments. The PCI facilitated the identification of key areas for improvement, enabling more informed decision-making towards circularity and benchmarking across different products, essentially assisting towards better resource management. In conclusion, the development of the Product Circularity Index represents a significant advancement in global sustainability efforts. By providing a standardized metric, the PCI empowers companies and stakeholders to systematically assess product circularity, track progress, identify improvement areas, and make informed decisions about resource management. This project contributes to the broader discourse on sustainable development by offering a practical approach to enhance circularity within industrial systems, thus paving the way towards a more resilient and sustainable future.

Keywords: circular economy, circular metrics, circularity assessment, circularity tool, sustainable product design, product circularity index

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Authors: Alireza Pour Ebrahimi, Vahid Abasi

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Recently by the extension of internet usage, Research on the intrusion detection system takes a significant importance. Many of improvement systems prevent internal and external network attacks by providing security through firewalls and antivirus. In recently years, intrusion detection systems gradually turn from host-based systems and depend on O.S to the distributed systems which are running on multiple O.S. In this work, by considering the diversity of computer networks whit respect to structure, architecture, resource, services, users and also security goals requirement a fully distributed collaborative intrusion detection system based on peer to peer architecture is suggested. in this platform each partner device (matched device) considered as a peer-to-peer network. All transmitted information to network are visible only for device that use security scanning of a source. Experimental results show that the distributed architecture is significantly upgradeable in respect to centralized approach.

Keywords: network, intrusion detection system, peer to peer, internal and external network

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Authors: Ibrahima Farikou, Kolontchang Gatchou Alberic Lionel, Tsiagadgui Jean Gustave, Ngo Yamben Marie-Ange, Handy Eone Daniel

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Introduction: It was in 1956 that Ilizarov pioneered the concept of osteogenesis in distraction by the device that bears his name to help produce bone and soft tissue regeneration and bone consolidation. This technique is not widely used in Africa where, however, its applications are numerous (loss of bone substances, congenital or acquired malformations). Our goal is to bring the indications of Ilizarov's device back to our practice conditions. Methods: Our study was conducted in 2 hospitals over a period of 20 years. For the retrospective phase, this study included all complete usable records of patients operated on in the Ilizarov external fixator department, and for the prospective phase, all patients operated on in the departments with complete usable records. Our sample was consecutive and not exhaustive. Data were analyzed by SPSS software version 23.0. Results: A total of 52 patients were reviewed. The average age of our patients was 14.7 years. The sex ratio was 1.6 in favor of men. The lower limb was the most affected (49), with a predominance of the tibia (62.4%). The average elongation was 6.4 cm. Traumatic acquired pathologies (delayed union, malunion) represented 60.6%. The mean time to union was seven months. Correction of the limb length discrepancy or filling of loss of bone substance was obtained in 75% of cases. Functionally, 80.8% of the patients treated had regained autonomy at the end of treatment, but in 17.3% of the patients, pain and limping persisted. Conclusion: This technique should be popularized in Africa because the benefit that would accrue to patients is invaluable and would be an attractive alternative to many amputations sometimes carried out in Africa by despair.

Keywords: ilizarov, external fixator, limb lengthening, bone regeneration, africa

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Authors: Kuo-Chun Chien, Chia-Hui Chang, Ren-Der Sun

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Legal Judgment Prediction (LJP) is a subtask for legal AI. Its main purpose is to use the facts of a case to predict the judgment result. In Taiwan's criminal procedure, when prosecutors complete the investigation of the case, they will decide whether to prosecute the suspect and which article of criminal law should be used based on the facts and evidence of the case. In this study, we collected 305,240 indictments from the public inquiry system of the procuratorate of the Ministry of Justice, which included 169 charges and 317 articles from 21 laws. We take the crime facts in the indictments as the main input to jointly learn the prediction model for law source, article, and charge simultaneously based on the pre-trained Bert model. For single article cases where the frequency of the charge and article are greater than 50, the prediction performance of law sources, articles, and charges reach 97.66, 92.22, and 60.52 macro-f1, respectively. To understand the big performance gap between articles and charges, we used a bipartite graph to visualize the relationship between the articles and charges, and found that the reason for the poor prediction performance was actually due to the wording precision. Some charges use the simplest words, while others may include the perpetrator or the result to make the charges more specific. For example, Article 284 of the Criminal Law may be indicted as “negligent injury”, "negligent death”, "business injury", "driving business injury", or "non-driving business injury". As another example, Article 10 of the Drug Hazard Control Regulations can be charged as “Drug Control Regulations” or “Drug Hazard Control Regulations”. In order to solve the above problems and more accurately predict the article and charge, we plan to include the article content or charge names in the input, and use the sentence-pair classification method for question-answer problems in the BERT model to improve the performance. We will also consider a sequence-to-sequence approach to charge prediction.

Keywords: legal judgment prediction, deep learning, natural language processing, BERT, data visualization

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Authors: Sheetla Prasad

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The objective of this study is ‘discovering the real psyche of human beings for prediction of mode, direction and strength of the potential of actions of the individual. The human face was taken as a source of central point to search for the route of real psyche. Analysis of the face architecture (shape and salient features of face) was done by three directional photographs ( 600 left and right and camera facing) of human beings. The shapes and features of the human face were scaled in 177 units on the basis of face–features locations (FFL). The mathematical analysis was done of FFLs by self developed and standardized formula. At this phase, 800 samples were taken from the population of students, teachers, advocates, administrative officers, and common persons. The finding shows that real psyche has two external rings (ER). These ER are itself generator of two independent psyches (manifested and manipulated). Prima-facie, it was proved that micro differences in FFLs have potential to predict the state of art of the human psyche. The potential of psyches was determined by the saving and distribution of mental energy. It was also mathematically proved.

Keywords: face architecture, psyche, potential, face functional ratio, external rings

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Authors: R. Ondarza-Rovira, T. J. M. Boyd

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Intense femtosecond laser light incident on over-critical density plasmas has shown to emit a prolific number of high-order harmonics of the driver frequency, with spectra characterized by power-law decays Pm ~ m-p, where m denotes the harmonic order and p the spectral decay index. When the laser pulse is p-polarized, plasma effects do modify the harmonic spectrum, weakening the so-called universal decay with p=8/3 to p=5/3, or below. In this work, appeal is made to a single particle radiation model in support of the predictions from particle-in-cell (PIC) simulations. Using this numerical technique we further show that the emission radiated by electrons -that are relativistically accelerated by the laser field inside the plasma, after being expelled into vacuum, the so-called Brunel electrons is characterized not only by the plasma line but also by ultraviolet harmonic orders described by the 5/3 decay index. Results obtained from these simulations suggest that for ultra-relativistic light intensities, the spectral decay index is further reduced, with p now in the range 2/3 ≤ p ≤ 4/3. This reduction is indicative of a transition from the regime where Brunel-induced plasma radiation influences the spectrum to one dominated by bremsstrahlung emission from the Brunel electrons.

Keywords: ultra-relativistic, laser-plasma interactions, high-order harmonic emission, radiation, spectrum

Procedia PDF Downloads 464