Search results for: Indian banking

Authors: Mala Mukherjee

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Background: India is urbanizing very fast and urbanisation in India is treated as one of the most crucial components of economic growth. Though the pace of urbanisation (31.6 per cent in 2011) is however slower and lower than the average for Asia but the absolute number of people residing in cities and towns has increased substantially. Rapid urbanization leads to urban poverty and it is well represented in slums. Currently India has four metropolises and 53 million plus cities. All of them have significant slum population but the standard of living and success of slum development programmes varies across regions. Objectives: Objectives of the paper are to show how urbanisation and slum development varies across space; to show spatial variation in the standard of living in Indian slums; to analyse how the implementation of slum development policies like JNNURM, Rajiv Awas Yojana varies across cities and bring different results in different regions and what are the factors responsible for such variation. Data Sources and Methodology: Census 2011 data on urban population and slum households and amenities have been used for analysing the regional variation of urbanisation in 53 million plus cities of India. Special focus has been put on Kolkata Metropolitan Area. Statistical techniques like z-score and PCA have been employed to work out Standard of Living Deprivation score for all the slums of 53 metropolises. ARC-GIS software is used for making maps. Standard of living has been measured in terms of access to basic amenities, infrastructure and assets like drinking water, sanitation, housing condition, bank account, and so on. Findings: 1. The first finding reveals that migration and urbanization is very high in Greater Mumbai, Delhi, Bangaluru, Chennai, Hyderabad and Kolkata; but slum population is high in Greater Mumbai (50% population live in slums), Meerut, Faridabad, Ludhiana, Nagpur, Kolkata etc. Though the rate of urbanization is high in southern and western states but the percentage of slum population is high in northern states (except Greater Mumbai). 2. Standard of Living also varies widely. Slums of Greater Mumbai and North Indian Cities score fairly high in the index indicating the fact that standard of living is high in those slums compare to the slums in eastern India (Dhanbad, Jamshedpur, Kolkata). Therefore, though Kolkata have relatively lesser percentage of slum population compare to north and south Indian cities but the standard of living in Kolkata’s slums is deplorable. 3. It is interesting to note that even within Kolkata Metropolitan Area slums located in the southern and eastern municipal towns like Rajpur-Sonarpur, Pujali, Diamond Harbour, Baduria and Dankuni have lower standard of living compare to the slums located in the Hooghly Industrial belt like Titagarh, Rishrah, Srerampore etc. Slums of the Hooghly Industrial Belt are older than the slums located in eastern and southern part of the urban agglomeration. 4. Therefore, urban development and emergence of slums should not be the only issue of urban governance but standard of living should be the main focus. Slums located in the main cities like Delhi, Mumbai, Kolkata get more attention from the urban planners and similarly, older slums in a city receives greater political attention compare to the slums of smaller cities and newly emerged slums of the peripheral parts.

Keywords: urbanisation, slum, spatial variation, India

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Authors: Godwin Chigozie Okpara, William Chimee Nwaoha

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The paper set out to stress on how financial inclusion index could be calculated and also investigated the impact of inclusive finance on inclusive growth in an emerging economy. In the light of these objectives, chi-wins method was used to calculate indexes of financial inclusion while co-integration and error correction model were used for evaluation of the impact of financial inclusion on inclusive growth. The result of the analysis revealed that financial inclusion while having a long-run relationship with GDP growth is an insignificant function of the growth of the economy. The speed of adjustment is correctly signed and significant. On the basis of these results, the researchers called for tireless efforts of government and banking sector in promoting financial inclusion in developing countries.

Keywords: chi-wins index, co-integration, error correction model, financial inclusion

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Authors: Sanjay Kumar Srivastava, Anu Rani Sharma, Kamna Sachdeva

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Every year, fog formation over the Indo-Gangetic Plains (IGPs) of Indian region during the winter months of December and January is believed to create numerous hazards, inconvenience, and economic loss to the inhabitants of this densely populated region of Indian subcontinent. The aim of the paper is to analyze the spatial and temporal variability of winter fog over IGPs. Long term ground observations of visibility and other meteorological parameters (1971-2010) have been analyzed to understand the formation of fog phenomena and its relevance during the peak winter months of January and December over IGP of India. In order to examine the temporal variability, time series and trend analysis were carried out by using the Mann-Kendall Statistical test. Trend analysis performed by using the Mann-Kendall test, accepts the alternate hypothesis with 95% confidence level indicating that there exists a trend. Kendall tau’s statistics showed that there exists a positive correlation between time series and fog frequency. Further, the Theil and Sen’s median slope estimate showed that the magnitude of trend is positive. Magnitude is higher during January compared to December for the entire IGP except in December when it is high over the western IGP. Decade wise time series analysis revealed that there has been continuous increase in fog days. The net overall increase of 99 % was observed over IGP in last four decades. Diurnal variability and average daily persistence were computed by using descriptive statistical techniques. Geo-statistical analysis of fog was carried out to understand the spatial variability of fog. Geo-statistical analysis of fog revealed that IGP is a high fog prone zone with fog occurrence frequency of more than 66% days during the study period. Diurnal variability indicates the peak occurrence of fog is between 06:00 and 10:00 local time and average daily fog persistence extends to 5 to 7 hours during the peak winter season. The results would offer a new perspective to take proactive measures in reducing the irreparable damage that could be caused due to changing trends of fog.

Keywords: fog, climatology, Mann-Kendall test, trend analysis, spatial variability, temporal variability, visibility

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Authors: Audia Syafa'atur Rahman, Rozali Haron

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The practices of Islamic banking are more attuned to the goals of profit maximization rather than obtaining ethical profit. Ethical profit is obtained from interest-free earnings and to give an impact which benefits to the growth of society and economy. Good corporate governance practices are needed to assure the sustainability of Islamic banks in order to achieve Maqasid Shariah with the main purpose of boosting the well-being of people. The Maqasid Shariah performance measurement is used to measure the duties and responsibilities expected to be performed by Islamic banks. It covers not only unification dimension like financial measurement, but also many dimensions covered to reflect the main purpose of Islamic banks. The implementation of good corporate governance is essential because it covers the interests of the stakeholders and facilitates effective monitoring to encourage Islamic banks to utilize resources more efficiently in order to achieve the Maqasid Shariah. This study aims to provide the empirical evidence on the Maqasid performance of Islamic banks in relation to the Maqasid performance evaluation model, to examine the influence of SSB characteristics and board structures to Islamic Banks performance as measured by Maqasid performance evaluation model. By employing the simple additive weighting method, Maqasid index for all the Islamic Banks in Indonesia within 2012 to 2016 ranged from above 11% to 28%. The Maqasid Syariah performance index where results reached above 20% are obtained by Islamic Banks such as Bank Muamalat Indonesia, Bank Panin Syariah, and Bank BRI Syariah. The consistent achievement above 23% is achieved by BMI. Other Islamic Banks such as Bank Victoria Syariah, Bank Jabar Banten Syariah, Bank BNI Syariah, Bank Mega Syariah, BCA Syariah, and Maybank Syariah Indonesia shows a fluctuating value of the Maqasid performance index every year. The impact of SSB characteristics and board structures are tested using random-effects generalized least square. The findings indicate that SSB characteristics (Shariah Supervisory Board size, Shariah Supervisory Board cross membership, Shariah Supervisory Board Education, and Shariah Supervisory Board reputation) and board structures (Board size and Board independence) have an essential role in improving the performance of Islamic Banks. The findings denote Shariah Supervisory Board with smaller size, higher portion of Shariah Supervisory Board cross membership; lesser Shariah Supervisory Board holds doctorate degree, lesser reputable scholar, more members on board of directors, and less independence non-executive directors will enhance the performance of Islamic Banks.

Keywords: Maqasid Shariah, corporate governance, Islamic banks, Shariah supervisory board

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Authors: Hemant Kumar, Nilendu Das

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A study based on ANN structure gives us the information to predict the size of the future in realizing a past event. ANN, IMD (Indian meteorological department) data and remote sensing were used to enable a number of parameters for calculating the size that may occur in the future. A threshold selected specifically above the high-frequency harvest reached the area during the selected seismic activity. In the field of human and local biodiversity it remains to obtain the right parameter compared to the frequency of impact. But during the study the assumption is that predicting seismic activity is a difficult process, not because of the parameters involved here, which can be analyzed and funded in research activity.

Keywords: ANN, Bayesion class, earthquakes, IMD

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Authors: Mehdi Janbaz

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The global financial crisis and the credit crunch that followed magnified the importance of credit risk management and its crucial role in the stability of all financial sectors and the whole of the system. Many believe that risks faced by the sovereign sector are highly interconnected with banking risks and most likely to trigger and reinforce each other. This study aims to examine (1) the impact of banking and interbank risk factors on the sovereign credit risk of Eurozone, and (2) how the EU Credit Default Swaps spreads dynamics are affected by the Crude Oil price fluctuations. The hypothesizes are tested by employing fitting risk measures and through a four-staged linear modeling approach. The sovereign senior 5-year Credit Default Swap spreads are used as a core measure of the credit risk. The monthly time-series data of the variables used in the study are gathered from the DataStream database for a period of 2008-2019. First, a linear model test the impact of regional macroeconomic and market-based factors (STOXX, VSTOXX, Oil, Sovereign Debt, and Slope) on the CDS spreads dynamics. Second, the bank-specific factors, including LIBOR-OIS spread (the difference between the Euro 3-month LIBOR rate and Euro 3-month overnight index swap rates) and Euribor, are added to the most significant factors of the previous model. Third, the global financial factors including EURO to USD Foreign Exchange Volatility, TED spread (the difference between 3-month T-bill and the 3-month LIBOR rate based in US dollars), and Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) Crude Oil Volatility Index are added to the major significant factors of the first two models. Finally, a model is generated by a combination of the major factor of each variable set in addition to the crisis dummy. The findings show that (1) the explanatory power of LIBOR-OIS on the sovereign CDS spread of Eurozone is very significant, and (2) there is a meaningful adverse co-movement between the Crude Oil price and CDS price of Eurozone. Surprisingly, adding TED spread (the difference between the three-month Treasury bill and the three-month LIBOR based in US dollars.) to the analysis and beside the LIBOR-OIS spread (the difference between the Euro 3M LIBOR and Euro 3M OIS) in third and fourth models has been increased the predicting power of LIBOR-OIS. Based on the results, LIBOR-OIS, Stoxx, TED spread, Slope, Oil price, OVX, FX volatility, and Euribor are the determinants of CDS spreads dynamics in Eurozone. Moreover, the positive impact of the crisis period on the creditworthiness of the Eurozone is meaningful.

Keywords: CDS, crude oil, interbank risk, LIBOR-OIS, OVX, sovereign credit risk, TED

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Authors: Pronob Kumar Mozumder M. Nazrul Islam, M. Abdur Rob Mollah

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This study was conducted in Cox’s Bazar-Teknaf Peninsula and Sonadia Island Ecologically Critical Areas during the period of October, 2011 to June, 2013. Six species of marine turtle are found in the Indian Ocean. Among them, olive ridley (Lepidochelys olivacea) listed as endangered in the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species. Marine turtle populations in the Indian Ocean have been depleted through long-term exploitation of eggs and adults, incidental capture (fisheries bycatch) and many other sources of mortality. The specific objective of the study was to conserve the sea turtles specially the olive ridley (Lepidochelys olivacea) with a view to contribute towards protection of the turtle species from extinction and to facilitate hatching of eggs through providing protection to turtle eggs or nest through ex-situ conservation efforts. In order to achieve the desired outputs and success, a total of five turtle hatcheries were established at Pechardwip, Khurermukh, Hazompara, Bodormokam, and Sonadia Eastpara sites. In total, 31,853 eggs were collected from 260 nests and were transferred to five hatcheries. The number of eggs/nest varied from 38 to 190 with an average clutch size of 122 eggs/ nest. Hatching of eggs took place during January to June with a peak in April. Sea turtle eggs were incubated by metabolic heat and the heat of the sun. The incubation period of turtle eggs in Cox’s Bazar-Teknaf Peninsula and Sonadia Island ECAs extended from 54 to 75 days depending on the month with an average of 66 days. During study period the temperature in the ECAs varied between 10.5-34.5°C. A total of 27,937 hatchlings of turtle were produced from the five hatcheries and all the hatchlings produced were released into the sea. Hatching rates varied from 74-98 % depending on the location and months with an average of 88 %. Sea turtles spend the majority of their lives in the sea, only emerging on beaches to nest. Despite the intense conservation efforts on the beaches, some populations have still declined to the edge of extinction. So proper conservation and awareness measure should be taken for prevention of turtle extinction.

Keywords: conservation of sea turtle, Bangladesh, ecologically critical area, ECA, Lepidochelys olivacea

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Authors: Shreya Srivastava, Sushovan Ghosh, Sagnik Dey

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Aerosols directly affect Earth’s radiation budget by scattering and absorbing incoming solar radiation and outgoing terrestrial radiation. While the uncertainty in aerosol radiative forcing (ARF) has decreased over the years, it is still higher than that of greenhouse gas forcing, particularly in the South Asian region, due to high heterogeneity in their chemical properties. Understanding the Spatio-temporal heterogeneity of aerosol composition is critical in improving climate prediction. Studies using satellite data, in-situ and aircraft measurements, and models have investigated the Spatio-temporal variability of aerosol characteristics. In this study, we have taken aerosol data from Multi-angle Imaging Spectro-Radiometer (MISR) level-2 version 23 aerosol products retrieved at 4.4 km and radiation data from Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES, spatial resolution=1ox1o) for 21 years (2000-2021) over the Indian subcontinent. MISR aerosol product includes size and shapes segregated aerosol optical depth (AOD), Angstrom exponent (AE), and single scattering albedo (SSA). Additionally, 74 aerosol mixtures are included in version 23 data that is used for aerosol speciation. We have seasonally mapped aerosol optical and microphysical properties from MISR for India at quarter degrees resolution. Results show strong Spatio-temporal variability, with a constant higher value of AOD for the Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP). The contribution of small-size particles is higher throughout the year, spatially during winter months. SSA is found to be overestimated where absorbing particles are present. The climatological map of short wave (SW) ARF at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) shows a strong cooling except in only a few places (values ranging from +2.5o to -22.5o). Cooling due to aerosols is higher in the absence of clouds. Higher negative values of ARF are found over the IGP region, given the high aerosol concentration above the region. Surface ARF values are everywhere negative for our study domain, with higher values in clear conditions. The results strongly correlate with AOD from MISR and ARF from CERES.

Keywords: aerosol Radiative forcing (ARF), aerosol composition, single scattering albedo (SSA), CERES

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Authors: Shreya Srivastava, Sagnik Dey

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Aerosol direct radiative forcing (ADRF) refers to the alteration of the Earth's energy balance from the scattering and absorption of solar radiation by aerosol particles. India experiences substantial ADRF due to high aerosol loading from various sources. These aerosols' radiative impact depends on their physical characteristics (such as size, shape, and composition) and atmospheric distribution. Quantifying ADRF is crucial for understanding aerosols’ impact on the regional climate and the Earth's radiative budget. In this study, we have taken radiation data from Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES, spatial resolution=1ox1o) for 22 years (2000-2021) over the Indian subcontinent. Except for a few locations, the short-wave DARF exhibits aerosol cooling at the TOA (values ranging from +2.5 W/m2 to -22.5W/m2). Cooling due to aerosols is more pronounced in the absence of clouds. Being an aerosol hotspot, higher negative ADRF is observed over the Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP). Aerosol Forcing Efficiency (AFE) shows a decreasing seasonal trend in winter (DJF) over the entire study region while an increasing trend over IGP and western south India during the post-monsoon season (SON) in clear-sky conditions. Analysing atmospheric heating and AOD trends, we found that only the aerosol loading is not governing the change in atmospheric heating but also the aerosol composition and/or their vertical profile. We used a Multi-angle Imaging Spectro-Radiometer (MISR) Level-2 Version 23 aerosol products to look into aerosol composition. MISR incorporates 74 aerosol mixtures in its retrieval algorithm based on size, shape, and absorbing properties. This aerosol mixture information was used for analysing long-term changes in aerosol composition and dominating aerosol species corresponding to the aerosol forcing value. Further, ADRF derived from this method is compared with around 35 studies across India, where a plane parallel Radiative transfer model was used, and the model inputs were taken from the OPAC (Optical Properties of Aerosols and Clouds) utilizing only limited aerosol parameter measurements. The result shows a large overestimation of TOA warming by the latter (i.e., Model-based method).

Keywords: aerosol radiative forcing (ARF), aerosol composition, MISR, CERES, SBDART

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Authors: S. R. Santhanam

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A gifted child is one who gives evidence of creativity, good memory, rapid learning. In mathematics, a teacher often comes across some gifted children and they exhibit the following characteristics: unusual alertness, enjoying solving problems, getting bored on repetitions, self-taught, going beyond what teacher taught, ask probing questions, connecting unconnected concepts, vivid imagination, readiness for research work, perseverance of a topic. There are two main areas of research carried out on them: 1)identifying gifted children, 2) interacting and channelizing them. A lack of appropriate recognition will lead the gifted child demotivated. One of the main findings is if proper attention and nourishment are not given then it leads a gifted child to become depressed, underachieving, fail to reach their full potential and sometimes develop negative attitude towards school and study. After identifying them, a mathematics teacher has to develop them into a fall fledged achiever. The responsibility of the teacher is enormous. The teacher has to be resourceful and patient. But interacting with them one finds a lot of surprises and awesomeness. The elementary algebraic identities like (a+b)(a-b)=a²-b², expansion of like (a+b)²(a-b)² and others are taught to students, of age group 13-15 in India. An average child will be satisfied with a single proof and immediate application of these identities. But a gifted child expects more from the teacher and at one stage after a little training will surpass the teacher also. In this short paper, the author shares his experience regarding teaching algebraic identities to gifted children. The following problem was given to a set of 10 gifted children of the specified age group: If a natural number ‘n’ to expressed as the sum of the two squares, will 2n also be expressed as the sum of two squares? An investigation has been done on what multiples of n satisfying the criterion. The attempts of the gifted children were consolidated and conclusion was drawn. A second problem was given to them as: can two natural numbers be found such that the difference of their square is 3? After a successful solution, more situations were analysed. As a third question, the finding of the sign of an algebraic expression in three variables was analysed. As an example: if a,b,c are real and unequal what will be sign of a²+4b²+9c²-4ab-12bc-6ca? Apart from an expression as a perfect square what other methods can be employed to prove an algebraic expression as positive negative or non negative has been analysed. Expressions like 4x²+2y²+13y²-2xy-4yz-6zx were given, and the children were asked to find the sign of the expression for all real values of x,y and z. In all investigations, only basic algebraic identities were used. As a next probe, a divisibility problem was initiated. When a,b,c are natural numbers such that a+b+c is at least 6, and if a+b+c is divisible by 6 then will 6 divide a³+b³+c³. The gifted children solved it in two different ways.

Keywords: algebraic identities, gifted children, Indian scenario, research

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Authors: Faisal Asad Aburub

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Many organizations are investing in web applications and technologies in order to be competitive, some of them could not achieve its goals. The quality of web-based applications could play an important role for organizations to be competitive. So the aim of this study is to investigate the impact of quality of web-based applications to achieve a competitive advantage. A new model has been developed. An empirical investigation was performed on a banking sector in Jordan to test the new model. The results show that impact of web-based applications on competitive advantage is significant. Finally, further work is planned to validate and evaluate the proposed model using several domains.

Keywords: competitive advantage, web-based applications, empirical investigation, commercial banks in Jordan

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Authors: Faiz N. K. Yusufi, Aquil Ahmed, Jamal Ahmad

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Predicting the risk of diabetic retinopathy (DR) in Indian type 2 diabetes patients is immensely necessary. India, being the second largest country after China in terms of a number of diabetic patients, to the best of our knowledge not a single risk score for complications has ever been investigated. Diabetic retinopathy is a serious complication and is the topmost reason for visual impairment across countries. Any type or form of DR has been taken as the event of interest, be it mild, back, grade I, II, III, and IV DR. A sample was determined and randomly collected from the Rajiv Gandhi Centre for Diabetes and Endocrinology, J.N.M.C., A.M.U., Aligarh, India. Collected variables include patients data such as sex, age, height, weight, body mass index (BMI), blood sugar fasting (BSF), post prandial sugar (PP), glycosylated haemoglobin (HbA1c), diastolic blood pressure (DBP), systolic blood pressure (SBP), smoking, alcohol habits, total cholesterol (TC), triglycerides (TG), high density lipoprotein (HDL), low density lipoprotein (LDL), very low density lipoprotein (VLDL), physical activity, duration of diabetes, diet control, history of antihypertensive drug treatment, family history of diabetes, waist circumference, hip circumference, medications, central obesity and history of DR. Cox proportional hazard regression is used to design risk scores for the prediction of retinopathy. Model calibration and discrimination are assessed from Hosmer Lemeshow and area under receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC). Overfitting and underfitting of the model are checked by applying regularization techniques and best method is selected between ridge, lasso and elastic net regression. Optimal cut off point is chosen by Youden’s index. Five-year probability of DR is predicted by both survival function, and Markov chain two state model and the better technique is concluded. The risk scores developed can be applied by doctors and patients themselves for self evaluation. Furthermore, the five-year probabilities can be applied as well to forecast and maintain the condition of patients. This provides immense benefit in real application of DR prediction in T2DM.

Keywords: Cox proportional hazard regression, diabetic retinopathy, ROC curve, type 2 diabetes mellitus

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Authors: Chien-Chih Lin

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This study argues that the optimal diversifications for the maximization of bank value are asymmetrical; they depend on the business cycle. During times of expansion, systematic risks are relatively low, and hence there is only a slight effect from raising them with a diversified portfolio. Consequently, the benefit of reducing individual risks dominates any loss from raising systematic risks, leading to a higher value for a bank by holding a diversified portfolio of assets. On the contrary, in times of recession, systematic risks are relatively high. It is more likely that the loss from raising systematic risks surpasses the benefit of reducing individual risks from portfolio diversification. Consequently, more diversification leads to lower bank values. Finally, some empirical evidence from the banks in Taiwan is provided.

Keywords: diversification, default probability, systemic risk, banking, business cycle

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Authors: Dipanshu Sur, Ratnabali Chakravorty, Rimi Pal, Siddhartha Chatterjee, Joyshree Chaterjee, Amal Mallik

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Background: Polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) is a common endocrine disease in reproductive women with a complex hormonal disturbance that affects the menstrual cycle and leads to metabolic consequences in later life. Hyperandrogenaemia is noticeable features of PCOS and influence the process of folliculogenesis in women. The levels of Antimüllerian Hormone (AMH) reflect the number of pre-antral follicles and thus are a marker of oocyte pool – germinal reserve of the ovary for reproduction. Besides its utilization in IVF (In-vitro fertilization), determination of AMH may serve as an additional marker in the diagnostics of PCOS, where increased AMH levels reflect the severity of the disease. The positive correlation of serum AMH with the number of antral follicles was found also in patients with PCOS. Objective: The objective of this study was to investigate the relationship between AMH androgens and whether AMH contributes to altered folliculogenesis in non-obese women with PCOS. Methods: We designed a prospective study which included a total of 65 IVF individuals. It enrolled 26 cases of PCOS based on 2003 Rotterdam criteria and 39 ovulatory normal- non PCOS, healthy, age-matched controls. AMH levels and ovarian morphology were assessed. The relationships between AMH and androgenaemia in patients with and without PCOS were studied. Results: Mean age of PCOS patients were slightly higher than controls (32±4 and 28±3 years, respectively). AMH generally increased with antral follicle count (AFC) [P=0.001], testosterone, and luteinising hormone, and decreased with age, and serum sex hormone binding globulin (SHBG). No significant relationships were found between circulating AMH levels and BMI between PCOS and non-PCOS patients. The calculation of AMH production per antral follicle (AMH/AF) showed that there was a significant difference in median AMH/AF between PCOS and non-PCOS (P =0.001). Both PCOS and non-PCOS groups showed a very similar increase in AMH with increases in AFC, but the PCOS patients had consistently higher AMH across all AFC levels. Conclusions: These observations indicate that there is a connection between AMH and androgens levels between PCOS and non-PCOS East Indian women. Excessive granulosa cell activity may be implicated in the abnormal follicular dynamic of the syndrome. They are higher in women with PCOS and, on the other hand, very low in women with an ovarian failure.

Keywords: anti-Mullerian hormone, polycystic ovary syndrome, antral follicle count, androgens

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Authors: Sule Pallavi, Shah Priyank, Thavkar Amit, Mehta Suyog, Rohira Poonam

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Minoxidil is used topically to help hair growth in the treatment of male androgenetic alopecia. The objective of this study is to compare irritation potential of three conventional formulation of minoxidil 5% topical solution of in human patch test. The study was a single centre, double blind, non-randomized controlled study in 56 healthy adult Indian subjects. Occlusive patch test for 24 hours was performed with three formulation of minoxidil 5% topical solution. Products tested included aqueous based minoxidil 5% (AnasureTM 5%, Sun Pharma, India – Brand A), alcohol based minoxidil 5% (Brand B) and aqueous based minoxidil 5% (Brand C). Isotonic saline 0.9% and 1% w/w sodium lauryl sulphate were included as negative control and positive control respectively. Patches were applied and removed after 24hours. The skin reaction was assessed and clinically scored 24 hours after the removal of the patches under constant artificial daylight source using Draize scale (0-4 points scale for erythema/wrinkles/dryness and for oedema). A combined mean score up to 2.0/8.0 indicates a product is “non-irritant” and score between 2.0/8.0 and 4.0/8.0 indicates “mildly irritant” and score above 4.0/8.0 indicates “irritant”. Follow-up was scheduled after one week to confirm recovery for any reaction. The procedure of the patch test followed the principles outlined by Bureau of Indian standards (BIS) (IS 4011:2018; Methods of Test for safety evaluation of Cosmetics-3rd revision). Fifty six subjects with mean age 30.9 years (27 males and 29 females) participated in the study. The combined mean score (± standard deviation) were: 0.13 ± 0.33 (Brand A), 0.39 ± 0.49 (Brand B), 0.22 ± 0.41 (Brand C), 2.91 ± 0.79 (Positive control) and 0.02 ± 0.13 (Negative control). The mean score of Brand A (Sun Pharma product) was significantly lower than Brand B (p=0.001) and was comparable with Brand C (p=0.21). The combined mean erythema score (± standard deviation) were: 0.09 ± 0.29 (Brand A), 0.27 ± 0.5 (Brand B), 0.18 ± 0.39 (Brand C), 2.02 ± 0.49 (Positive control) and 0.0 ± 0.0 (Negative control). The mean erythema score of Brand A was significantly lower than Brand B (p=0.01) and was comparable with Brand C (p=0.16). Any reaction observed at 24hours after patch removal subsided in a week. All the three topical formulation of minoxidil 5% were non-irritant. Brand A of 5% minoxidil (Sun Pharma) was found to be least irritant than Brand B and Brand C based on the combined mean score and mean erythema score in the human patch test as per the BIS, IS 4011;2018.

Keywords: erythema, irritation, minoxidil, patch test

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Authors: Ila Gupta

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The government hospitals in India by and large lack the necessary aesthetic therapeutic components, both in their interior and exterior space designs. These components especially in terms of color application are important to the emotional as well as physical well being of the patients and other participants of the space. The preliminary survey of few government hospitals in Uttarakhand, India, reveals that the government health care industry provides a wide scope for intervention. All most all of the spaces do not adhere to a proper therapeutic color scheme which directly helps the well-being of their patients and workers. The paper aims to conduct a survey and come up with recommendations in this regard. The government hospitals also lack a proper signage system which allows the space to be more user-friendly. The hospital spaces in totality also have scope for improvement in terms of space/landscape design which enhances the work environment in an efficient and positive way. This study will thus enable to come up with feasible recommendations for healthcare and built environment as well as retrofitting the existing spaces. The objective of the paper is mainly on few case studies. The present ambience in many government hospitals generally lacks a welcoming ambience. It is proposed to select one or two government hospitals and demonstrate application of appropriate and self-sustainable color schemes, placement of artifacts, changes in outdoor and indoor space design to bring about a change that is conducive for cognitive healing. Exterior changes to existing and old hospital buildings in depressed historic areas signify financial investment and change, and have the potential to play a significant role in both urban preservation and revitalization. Changes to exterior architectural colors are perhaps the most visible signifier of such revitalization, as the use of color changes as a tool in façade and interior improvement programs. The present project will provide its recommendations on the basis of case studies done in the Indian Public Health Care system. Furthermore, the recommendations will be in accordance with the extended study conducted in Indian Ayurvedic, Yogic texts as well as Vastu texts, which provides knowledge about built environments and healing properties of color.

Keywords: color, environment, facade, architectural color history, interior improvement programs, community development, district/government hospitals

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Authors: H. Chabalala, A. Grootboom, M. Tang

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The innovative development, production, and clinical utilisation of African natural medicines requires frameworks from systematisation, innovation, registration. Afrika faces challenges when it comes to these sectors. The opposite is the case as is is evident in ancient Asian (Traditional Chinese Medicine and Indian Ayurveda and Siddha) medical systems, which are interfaced into their respective national health and educational systems. Afrikan Natural Medicines (ANMs) are yet to develop systematisation frameworks, i.e. disease characterisation and medicines classification. This paper explores classical medical systems drawn from Afrikan and Chinese experts in natural medicines. An Afrikological research methodology was used to conduct in-depth interviews with 20 key respondents selected through purposeful sampling technique. Data was summarised into systematisation frameworks for classical disease theories, patient categorisation, medicine classification, aetiology and pathogenesis of disease, diagnosis and prognosis techniques and treatment methods. It was discovered that ancient Afrika had systematic medical cosmologies, remnants of which are evident in most Afrikan cultural health practices. Parallels could be drawn from classical medical concepts of antiquity, like Chinese Taoist and Indian tantric health systems. Data revealed that both the ancient and contemporary ANM systems were based on living medical cosmologies. The study showed that African Natural Healing Systems have etiological systems, general pathogenesis knowledge, differential diagnostic techniques, comprehensive prognosis and holistic treatment regimes. Systematisation models were developed out of these frameworks, and this could be used for evaluation of clinical research, medical application including development of curriculum for high-education. It was envisaged that frameworks will pave way towards the development, production and commercialisation of ANMs. This was piloted in inclusive innovation, technology transfer and commercialisation of South African natural medicines, cosmeceuticals, nutraceuticals and health infusions. The central model presented here in will assist in curriculum development and establishment of Afrikan Medicines Hospitals and Pharmaceutical Industries.

Keywords: African Natural Medicines, Indigenous Knowledge Systems, Medical Cosmology, Clinical Application

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Authors: Libena Cernohorska, Jan Cernohorsky

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This article aims to evaluate the impact of loans provided within the Czech banking sector on the growth of the Czech economy. The article is based on research of current scientific findings in respect to bank loans and economic development. The paper is based on data taken from the Czech Statistical Office on the development of the gross domestic product and data from the Czech National Bank on the development of loans from the period 2004-2015. Links between selected variables are tested using Granger causality tests. The results calculated confirm the hypothesis of the impact of the loans on economic growth, with a six-month delay. The results thus correspond to the standard economic findings and results of most previous studies.

Keywords: bank, business cycle, economic growth, loans

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Authors: Davendra Singh Malik

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India is one of the mega-biodiversity countries in the world and contributing about 11.72% of global fish diversity. The Yamuna river is the longest tributary of Ganga river ecosystem, providing a natural habitat for existing fish diversity of Himalayan region of Indian subcontinent. The several hydropower dams and barrages have been constructed on different locations of major rivers in Garhwal region. These dams have caused a major ecological threat to change existing fresh water ecosystems altering water flows, interrupting ecological connectivity, fragmenting habitats and native riverine fish species. Mahseer fishes (Indian carp) of the genus Tor, are large cyprinids endemic to continental Asia popularly known as ‘Game or sport fishes’ have continued to be decimated by fragmented natural habitats due to damming the water flow in riverine system and categorized as threatened fishes of India. The fresh water fish diversity as 24 fish species were recorded from Yamuna river. The present fish catch data has revealed that mahseer fishes (Tor tor and Tor putitora) were contributed about 32.5 %, 25.6 % and 18.2 % in upper, middle and lower riverine stretches of Yaumna river. The length range of mahseer (360-450mm) recorded as dominant size of catch composition. The CPUE (catch per unit effort) of mahseer fishes also indicated about a sharp decline of fish biomass, changing growth pattern, sex ratio and maturity stages of fishes. Only 12.5 – 14.8 % mahseer female brooders have showed only maturity phases in breeding months. The fecundity of mature mahseer female fish brooders ranged from 2500-4500 no. of ova during breeding months. The present status of mahseer fishery has attributed to the over exploitative nature in Yamuna river. The mahseer population is shrinking continuously in down streams of Yamuna river due to cumulative effects of various ecological stress. Mahseer conservation programme have implemented as 'in situ fish conservation' for enhancement of viable population size of mahseer species and restore the genetic loss of mahseer fish germplasm in Yamuna river of Garhwal Himalayan region.

Keywords: conservation practice, population dynamics, tor fish species, Yamuna River

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Authors: Kavitha Madhu, Karthik K. Srinivasan, R. Sivanandan

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Indian traffic can be considered as mixed and heterogeneous due to the presence of various types of vehicles that operate with weak lane discipline. Consequently, vehicles can position themselves anywhere in the traffic stream depending on availability of gaps. The choice of lateral positioning is an important component in representing and characterizing mixed traffic. The field data provides evidence that the trajectory of vehicles in Indian urban roads have significantly varying longitudinal and lateral components. Further, the notion of headway which is widely used for homogeneous traffic simulation is not well defined in conditions lacking lane discipline. From field data it is clear that following is not strict as in homogeneous and lane disciplined conditions and neighbouring vehicles ahead of a given vehicle and those adjacent to it could also influence the subject vehicles choice of position, speed and acceleration. Given these empirical features, the suitability of using headway distributions to characterize mixed traffic in Indian cities is questionable, and needs to be modified appropriately. To address these issues, this paper attempts to analyze the time gap distribution between consecutive vehicles (in a time-sense) crossing a section of roadway. More specifically, to characterize the complex interactions noted above, the influence of composition, manoeuvre types, and lateral placement characteristics on time gap distribution is quantified in this paper. The developed model is used for evaluating various performance measures such as link speed, midblock delay and intersection delay which further helps to characterise the vehicular fuel consumption and emission on urban roads of India. Identifying and analyzing exact interactions between various classes of vehicles in the traffic stream is essential for increasing the accuracy and realism of microscopic traffic flow modelling. In this regard, this study aims to develop and analyze time gap distribution models and quantify it by lead lag pair, manoeuvre type and lateral position characteristics in heterogeneous non-lane based traffic. Once the modelling scheme is developed, this can be used for estimating the vehicle kilometres travelled for the entire traffic system which helps to determine the vehicular fuel consumption and emission. The approach to this objective involves: data collection, statistical modelling and parameter estimation, simulation using calibrated time-gap distribution and its validation, empirical analysis of simulation result and associated traffic flow parameters, and application to analyze illustrative traffic policies. In particular, video graphic methods are used for data extraction from urban mid-block sections in Chennai, where the data comprises of vehicle type, vehicle position (both longitudinal and lateral), speed and time gap. Statistical tests are carried out to compare the simulated data with the actual data and the model performance is evaluated. The effect of integration of above mentioned factors in vehicle generation is studied by comparing the performance measures like density, speed, flow, capacity, area occupancy etc under various traffic conditions and policies. The implications of the quantified distributions and simulation model for estimating the PCU (Passenger Car Units), capacity and level of service of the system are also discussed.

Keywords: lateral movement, mixed traffic condition, simulation modeling, vehicle following models

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Authors: Vishwa Joshi

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The study of mood recognition in the field of music has gained a lot of momentum in the recent years with machine learning and data mining techniques and many audio features contributing considerably to analyze and identify the relation of mood plus music. In this paper we consider the same idea forward and come up with making an effort to build a system for automatic recognition of mood underlying the audio song’s clips by mining their audio features and have evaluated several data classification algorithms in order to learn, train and test the model describing the moods of these audio songs and developed an open source framework. Before classification, Preprocessing and Feature Extraction phase is necessary for removing noise and gathering features respectively.

Keywords: music, mood, features, classification

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Authors: Francis Nanda Prakash Monteiro, Shyna Quadras, Tanush Shetty

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The association between human physique and morbidity and mortality resulting from coronary artery disease has been studied extensively over several decades. Multiple studies have also been done on the correlation between grade of atherosclerosis, coronary artery diseases and anthropometrical measurements. However, the number of autopsy-based studies drastically reduces this number. It has been suggested that while in living subjects, it would be expensive, difficult, and even harmful to subject them to imaging modalities like CT scans and procedures involving contrast media to study mild atherosclerosis, no such harm is encountered in study of autopsy cases. This autopsy-based study was aimed to correlate the anthropometric measurements and indices of obesity, such as waist circumference (WC), hip circumference (HC), body mass index (BMI) and waist hip ratio (WHR) with the degree of atherosclerosis in the right coronary artery (RCA), main branch of the left coronary artery (LCA) and the left anterior descending artery (LADA) in 95 South Indian origin victims of both the genders between the age of 18 years and 75 years. The grading of atherosclerosis was done according to criteria suggested by the American Heart Association. The study also analysed the correlation of the anthropometric measurements and indices of obesity with the number of coronaries affected with atherosclerosis in an individual. All the anthropometric measurements and the derived indices were found to be significantly correlated to each other in both the genders except for the age, which is found to have a significant correlation only with the WHR. In both the genders severe degree of atherosclerosis was commonly observed in LADA, followed by LCA and RCA. Grade of atherosclerosis in RCA is significantly related to the WHR in males. Grade of atherosclerosis in LCA and LADA is significantly related to the WHR in females. Significant relation was observed between grade of atherosclerosis in RCA and WC, and WHR, and between grade of atherosclerosis in LADA and HC in males. Significant relation was observed between grade of atherosclerosis in RCA and WC, and WHR, and between grade of atherosclerosis in LADA and HC in females. Anthropometric measurements/indices of obesity can be an effective means to identify high risk cases of atherosclerosis at an early stage that can be effective in reducing the associated cardiac morbidity and mortality. A person with anthropometric measurements suggestive of mild atherosclerosis can be advised to modify his lifestyle, along with decreasing his exposure to the other risk factors. Those with measurements suggestive of higher degree of atherosclerosis can be subjected to confirmatory procedures to start effective treatment.

Keywords: atherosclerosis, coronary artery disease, indices, obesity

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Authors: Bhumika Gupta, Jeayaram Subramanian, Hardik Vachhrajani, Avinash Shivdas

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Indian food processing industry is one of the largest in the world in terms of production, consumption, exports and growth opportunities. SMEs play a crucial role within this. Large manufacturing firms largely dominate innovation studies in India. Innovation sources used by SMEs are often different from that of large firms. This paper focuses on exploring various sources of innovation adopted by food processing SMEs in Kerala, South India. Outcome suggests that SMEs use various sources like suppliers, competitors, employees, government/research institutions and customers to get new ideas.

Keywords: food processing, innovation, SMEs, sources of innovation

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Authors: Shota Gulbani

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At the present stage, for the countries with developing economies, studying, and researching financial markets, gains special importance, because the situation of financial markets shapes an exact views about the carried out economic policy of the country. Besides, it’s unimaginable any country with developed economy, without healthy and functioning financial markets, whereas, for any kind of business it has got a great importance in terms of finding diversified and alternative capital. In this regard; it should be noted that the segments of Georgian financial markets are developed quite unequally, as evidenced by the fact that the Georgian financial sector is represented by 93% of commercial banks, what does not create an conformable environment for non-bank financial institutions development. In spite of the fact that Georgia has got one of the best banking system of region, it is important to properly analyze that this system should not hinder the development of other participants of Georgian financial sector.

Keywords: financial markets, macroeconomics, investments, stock exchange

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Authors: M. V. Shivaani, P. K. Jain, Surendra S. Yadav

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Worldwide regulators, practitioners and researchers view risk-disclosure as one of the most important steps that will promote corporate accountability and transparency. Recognizing this growing significance of risk disclosures, the paper first develops a risk disclosure index. Covering 69 risk items/themes, this index is developed by employing thematic content analysis and encompasses three attributes of disclosure: namely, nature (qualitative or quantitative), time horizon (backward-looking or forward-looking) and tone (no impact, positive impact or negative impact). As the focus of study is on substantive rather than symbolic disclosure, content analysis has been carried out manually. The study is based on non-financial companies of Nifty500 index and covers a ten year period from April 1, 2005 to March 31, 2015, thus yielding 3,872 annual reports for analysis. The analysis reveals that (on an average) only about 14% of risk items (i.e. about 10 out 69 risk items studied) are being disclosed by Indian companies. Risk items that are frequently disclosed are mostly macroeconomic in nature and their disclosures tend to be qualitative, forward-looking and conveying both positive and negative aspects of the concerned risk. The second objective of the paper is to gauge the factors that affect the level of disclosures in annual reports. Given the panel nature of data, and possible endogeneity amongst variables, Diff-GMM regression has been applied. The results indicate that age and size of firms have a significant positive impact on disclosure quality, whereas growth rate does not have a significant impact. Further, post-recession period (2009-2015) has witnessed significant improvement in quality of disclosures. In terms of corporate governance variables, board size, board independence, CEO duality, presence of CRO and constitution of risk management committee appear to be significant factors in determining the quality of risk disclosures. It is noteworthy that the study contributes to literature by putting forth a variant to existing disclosure indices that not only captures the quantity but also the quality of disclosures (in terms of semantic attributes). Also, the study is a first of its kind attempt in a prominent emerging market i.e. India. Therefore, this study is expected to facilitate regulators in mandating and regulating risk disclosures and companies in their endeavor to reduce information asymmetry.

Keywords: risk disclosure, voluntary disclosures, corporate governance, Diff-GMM

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Authors: Joshi Rajiv, Shah Priyank, Thavkar Amit, Rohira Poonam, Mehta Suyog

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Topical formulation containing minoxidil and finasteride helps hair growth in the treatment of male androgenetic alopecia. The objective of this study is to compare the irritation potential of three conventional formulations of minoxidil 5% + finasteride 0.1% topical solution of in human patch test. The study was a single centre, double blind, non-randomized controlled study in 53 healthy adult Indian subjects. Occlusive patch test for 24 hours was performed with three formulations of minoxidil 5% + finasteride 0.1% topical solution. Products tested included aqueous based minoxidil 5% + finasteride 0.1% (AnasureTM-F, Sun Pharma, India – Brand A), lipid based minoxidil 5% + finasteride 0.1% (Brand B) and aqueous based minoxidil 5% + finasteride 0.1% (Brand C). Isotonic saline 0.9% and 1% w/w sodium lauryl sulphate were included as negative control and positive control respectively. Patches were applied and removed after 24 hours. The skin reaction was assessed and clinically scored 24 hours after the removal of the patches under constant artificial daylight source using the Draize scale (0-4 points scale for erythema/dryness//wrinkles and for oedema). Follow-up was scheduled after one week to confirm recovery for any reaction. A combined mean score up to 2.0/8.0 indicates a product is “non-irritant” and a score between 2.0/8.0 and 4.0/8.0 indicates “mildly irritant” and a score above 4.0/8.0 indicates “irritant”. The procedure of the patch test followed the principles outlined by the Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS) (IS 4011:2018; Methods of Test for safety evaluation of Cosmetics-3rd revision). Fifty three subjects with mean age 31.9 years (25 males and 28 females) participated in the study. The combined mean score ± standard deviation were: 0.06 ± 0.23 (Brand A), 0.81 ± 0.59 (Brand B), 0.38 ± 0.49 (Brand C), 2.92 ± 0.47 (positive control) and 0.0 ± 0.0 (Negative control). This means the score of Brand A (Sun Pharma product) was significantly lower than that of Brand B (p=0.001) and that of Brand C (p=0.001). The combined mean erythema score ± standard deviation were: 0.06 ± 0.23 (Brand A), 0.81 ± 0.59 (Brand B), 0.38 ± 0.49 (Brand C), 2.09 ± 0.4 (Positive control) and 0.0 ± 0.0 (Negative control). The mean erythema score of Brand A was significantly lower than Brand B (p=0.001) and that of Brand C (p=0.001). Any reaction observed at 24hours after patch removal subsided in a week. All the three topical formulations of minoxidil 5% + finasteride 0.1% were non-irritant. Brand A of minoxidil 5% + finasteride 0.1% (Sun Pharma) was found to be the least irritant than Brand B and Brand C based on the combined mean score and mean erythema score in the human patch test as per the BIS, IS 4011:2018

Keywords: erythema, finasteride, irritation, minoxidil, patch test

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Authors: Sule Pallavi, Shah Priyank, Thavkar Amit, Rohira Poonam, Mehta Suyog

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Introduction: Minoxidil has been used topically for a long time to assist hair growth in the management of male androgenetic alopecia. The aim of this study was a comparative assessment of the irritation potential of three commercial formulations of minoxidil 2% topical solution in a human patch test. Methodology: The study was a non-randomized, double-blind, controlled, single-center study of 56 healthy adult Indian subjects. A 24-hour occlusive patch test was conducted with three formulations of minoxidil 2% topical solution. Products tested were aqueous-based minoxidil 2% (AnasureTM 2%, Sun Pharma, India – Brand A), alcohol-based minoxidil 2% (Brand B) and aqueous-based minoxidil 2% (Brand C). Isotonic saline 0.9% and 1% w/w sodium lauryl sulphate as a negative and positive control, respectively, were included. Patches were applied on the back, followed by removal after 24 hours. The Draize scale (0-4 points scale for erythema/dryness/wrinkles and for oedema) was used to evaluate and clinically score the skin reaction under constant artificial daylight 24 hours after the removal of the patches. The patch test was based on the principles outlined by Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS) (IS 4011:2018; Methods of Test for safety evaluation of Cosmetics-3rd revision). A mean combined score up to 2.0/8.0 indicates that a product is “non-irritant,” and a score between 2.0/8.0 and 4.0/8.0 indicates “mildly irritant” and a score above 4.0/8.0 indicates “irritant”. In case of any skin reaction that was observed, a follow-up was planned after one week to confirm recovery. Results: The 56 subjects who participated in the study had a mean age of 28.7 years (28 males and 28 females). The combined mean score ± standard deviation was: 0.09 ± 0.29 (Brand A), 0.29± 0.53 (Brand B), 0.30 ± 0.46 (Brand C), 3.25 ± 0.77 (positive control) and 0.02 ± 0.13 (negative control). This mean score of Brand A (Sun Pharma) was significantly lower than that of Brand B (p=0.016) and that of Brand C (p=0.004). The mean erythema score ± standard deviation was: 0.09 ± 0.29 (Brand A), 0.27 ± 0.49 (Brand B), 0.30 ± 0.46 (Brand C), 2.5 ± 0.66 (positive control) and 0.02 ± 0.13 (negative control). The mean erythema score of Brand A (Sun Pharma) was significantly lower than that of Brand B (p=0.019) and that of Brand C (p=0.004). Reactions that were observed 24 hours after patch removal subsided in a week’s time. Conclusion: Based on the human patch test as per the BIS, IS 4011:2018, all the three topical formulations of minoxidil 2% were found to be non-irritant. Brand A of 2% minoxidil (Sun Pharma) was found to be the least irritant than Brand B and Brand C based on the combined mean score and mean erythema score.

Keywords: erythema, irritation, minoxidil, patch test

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Authors: Rishabh Garg

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Traditionally, business parties build trust with a centralized operating mechanism, such as payment by letter of credit. However, the increase in cyber-attacks and malicious hacking has jeopardized business operations and finance practices. Emerging markets, owing to their higher banking risks and bigger presence of digital financing, are looking forward to technology-driven solutions, financial inclusion and innovative working paradigms. Blockchain has the potential to enhance transaction transparency and supply chain traceability. It has captured a vast landscape with 200 million crypto users worldwide. Fintech and blockchain products are popping up across brokerage, digital wallets, exchanges, post-trade clearance, settlement, middleware, infrastructure, and base protocols.

Keywords: blockchain, distributed ledger technology, decentralized applications, ethereum, smart contracts, trade finance

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Authors: Shabir Ahmad Sofi, Shubham Aggarwal, Sanyam Singhal, Roohie Naaz

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Biometric recognition refers to an automatic recognition of individuals based on a feature vector(s) derived from their physiological and/or behavioral characteristic. Biometric recognition systems should provide a reliable personal recognition schemes to either confirm or determine the identity of an individual. These features are used to provide an authentication for computer based security systems. Applications of such a system include computer systems security, secure electronic banking, mobile phones, credit cards, secure access to buildings, health and social services. By using biometrics a person could be identified based on 'who she/he is' rather than 'what she/he has' (card, token, key) or 'what she/he knows' (password, PIN). In this paper, a brief overview of biometric methods, both unimodal and multimodal and their advantages and disadvantages, will be presented.

Keywords: biometric, DNA, fingerprint, ear, face, retina scan, gait, iris, voice recognition, unimodal biometric, multimodal biometric

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Authors: Chandranath Chatterjee, Amina Khatun, Bhabagrahi Sahoo

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With the changing climate, precipitation events are intensified in the tropical river basins. Since these river basins are significantly influenced by the monsoonal rainfall pattern, critical impacts are observed on the agricultural practices in the downstream river reaches. This study analyses the crop damage and associated flood risk in terms of net benefit in the paddy-dominated tropical Indian delta of the Mahanadi River. The Mahanadi River basin lies in eastern part of the Indian sub-continent and is greatly affected by the southwest monsoon rainfall extending from the month of June to September. This river delta is highly flood-prone and has suffered from recurring high floods, especially after the 2000s. In this study, the lumped conceptual model, Nedbør Afstrømnings Model (NAM) from the suite of MIKE models, is used for rainfall-runoff modeling. The NAM model is laterally integrated with the MIKE11-Hydrodynamic (HD) model to route the runoffs up to the head of the delta region. To obtain the precipitation-derived future projected discharges at the head of the delta, nine Global Climate Models (GCMs), namely, BCC-CSM1.1(m), GFDL-CM3, GFDL-ESM2G, HadGEM2-AO, IPSL-CM5A-LR, IPSL-CM5A-MR, MIROC5, MIROC-ESM-CHEM and NorESM1-M, available in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-Phase 5 (CMIP5) archive are considered. These nine GCMs are previously found to best-capture the Indian Summer Monsoon rainfall. Based on the performance of the nine GCMs in reproducing the historical discharge pattern, three GCMs (HadGEM2-AO, IPSL-CM5A-MR and MIROC-ESM-CHEM) are selected. A higher Taylor Skill Score is considered as the GCM selection criteria. Thereafter, the 10-year return period design flood is estimated using L-moments based flood frequency analysis for the historical and three future projected periods (2010-2039, 2040-2069 and 2070-2099) under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5. A non-dimensional hydrograph analysis is performed to obtain the hydrographs for the historical/projected 10-year return period design floods. These hydrographs are forced into the calibrated and validated coupled 1D-2D hydrodynamic model, MIKE FLOOD, to simulate the flood inundation in the delta region. Historical and projected flood risk is defined based on the information about the flood inundation simulated by the MIKE FLOOD model and the inundation depth-damage-duration relationship of a normal rice variety cultivated in the river delta. In general, flood risk is expected to increase in all the future projected time periods as compared to the historical episode. Further, in comparison to the 2010s (2010-2039), an increased flood risk in the 2040s (2040-2069) is shown by all the three selected GCMs. However, the flood risk then declines in the 2070s as we move towards the end of the century (2070-2099). The methodology adopted herein for flood risk assessment is one of its kind and may be implemented in any world-river basin. The results obtained from this study can help in future flood preparedness by implementing suitable flood adaptation strategies.

Keywords: flood frequency analysis, flood risk, global climate models (GCMs), paddy cultivation

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