Search results for: asset liability modelling

Authors: Majid Aldalbahi

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In 2009, over 3.4 billion people in the world resided in urban areas as a result of rapid urban growth. This figure is estimated to increase to 6.5 billion by 2050. This urban growth phenomenon has raised challenges for many countries in both the developing and developed worlds. Urban growth is a complicated process involving the spatiotemporal changes of all socio-economic and physical components at different scales. The socio-economic components of urban growth are related to urban population growth and economic growth, while physical components of urban growth and economic growth are related to spatial expansion, land cover change and land use change which are the focus of this research. The interactions between these components are complex and no-linear. Several factors and forces cause these complex interactions including transportation and communication, internal and international migrations, public policies, high natural growth rates of urban populations and public policies. Urban growth has positive and negative consequences. The positive effects relates to planned and orderly urban growth, while negative effects relate to unplanned and scattered growth, which is called sprawl. Although urban growth is considered as necessary for sustainable urbanization, uncontrolled and rapid growth cause various problems including consumption of precious rural land resources at urban fringe, landscape alteration, traffic congestion, infrastructure pressure, and neighborhood conflicts. Traditional urban planning approaches in fast growing cities cannot accommodate the negative consequences of rapid urban growth. Microsimulation programme, and modelling techniques are effective means to provide new urban development, management and planning methods and approaches. This paper aims to use these techniques to understand and analyse the complex interactions for the case study of Riyadh city, a fast growing city in Saudi Arabia.

Keywords: policy implications, urban planning, traffic congestion, urban growth, Suadi Arabia, Riyadh

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Authors: Hazel Pettifor, Charlie Wilson, David Mccollum, Oreane Edelenbosch

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Vehicle purchase is a technology adoption decision that will strongly influence future energy and emission outcomes. Global integrated assessment models (IAMs) provide valuable insights into the medium and long terms effects of socio-economic development, technological change and climate policy. In this paper we present a unique and transparent approach for improving the behavioural representation of these models by incorporating social influence effects to more accurately represent consumer choice. This work draws together strong conceptual thinking and robust empirical evidence to introduce heterogeneous and interconnected consumers who vary in their aversion to new technologies. Focussing on vehicle choice, we conduct novel empirical research to parameterise consumer risk aversion and how this is shaped by social and cultural influences. We find robust evidence for social influence effects, and variation between countries as a function of cultural differences. We then formulate an approach to modelling social influence which is implementable in both simulation and optimisation-type models. We use two global integrated assessment models (IMAGE and MESSAGE) to analyse four scenarios that introduce social influence and cultural differences between regions. These scenarios allow us to explore the interactions between consumer preferences and social influence. We find that incorporating social influence effects into global models accelerates the early deployment of electric vehicles and stimulates more widespread deployment across adopter groups. Incorporating cultural variation leads to significant differences in deployment between culturally divergent regions such as the USA and China. Our analysis significantly extends the ability of global integrated assessment models to provide policy-relevant analysis grounded in real-world processes.

Keywords: behavioural realism, electric vehicles, social influence, vehicle choice

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Authors: Chimezie P. Nnanwa, Thomas C. Urama, Patrick O. Ezepue

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In this paper we use Random Matrix Theory to analyze the eigen-structure of the empirical correlations of 82 stocks which are consistently traded in the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) over a 4-year study period 3 August 2009 to 26 August 2013. We apply the Marchenko-Pastur distribution of eigenvalues of a purely random matrix to investigate the presence of investment-pertinent information contained in the empirical correlation matrix of the selected stocks. We use hypothesised standard normal distribution of eigenvector components from RMT to assess deviations of the empirical eigenvectors to this distribution for different eigenvalues. We also use the Inverse Participation Ratio to measure the deviation of eigenvectors of the empirical correlation matrix from RMT results. These preliminary results on the dynamics of asset price correlations in the NSE are important for improving risk-return trade-offs associated with Markowitz’s portfolio optimization in the stock exchange, which is pursued in future work.

Keywords: correlation matrix, eigenvalue and eigenvector, inverse participation ratio, portfolio optimization, random matrix theory

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Authors: Mucahit Unal, Ibrahim Arslan

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The New Turkish Commercial Code (TCC) No. 6102 was published in the Official Gazette on February 14, 2011. As stated in the New Turkish Commercial Code No. 6102 and Law No. 6103 on Validity and Application of the Turkish Commercial Code, TCC came into effect on July 1, 2012. The basic purpose of the TCC is to form corporate governance coherent with the international standards; to provide transparency in company management; to adjust the Turkish Commercial Code rules with European Union legislations and to simplify establishing a company for foreigner investors to move investments to Turkish market. In this context according to TCC, joint stock companies and limited liability companies can establish with only one single shareholder; the one single shareholder can be foreigner; all board of director members can be foreigner, also all shareholders and board of director members can be non-resident foreigners. Additionally, TCC does not require physical participation to the general shareholders and board members meetings. TCC allows that the general shareholders and board members meetings can hold in an electronic form and resolution of these meetings may also be approved via electronic signatures. Through this amendment, foreign investors no longer have to deal with red tapes. This amendment also means the TCC prevents foreign companies from incurring unnecessary travel expenses. In accordance with all this amendments about TCC, to invest in Turkish market is easy, simple and transparent for foreigner investors and also investors can establish a company in Turkey, irrespective of nationality or place of residence. This article aims to analyze ‘Establish a Company in Turkey for Foreigners’ and inform investors about investing (especially establishing a company) in the Turkish market.

Keywords: establish a company, foreigner investors, invest in Turkish market, Turkish commercial code

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Authors: Hanife Merve Öztürk, Sıdıka Dalgan

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In this project, a capacity analysis study is done at TAT A. Ş. Maret Plant. Production capacity of products which generate 80% of sales amount are determined. Obtained data entered the LEKIN Scheduling Program and we get production schedules by using heuristic methods. Besides heuristic methods, as mathematical model, disjunctive programming formulation is adapted to flexible job shop problems by adding a new constraint to find optimal schedule solution.

Keywords: scheduling, flexible job shop problem, shifting bottleneck heuristic, mathematical modelling

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Authors: Argyro Maria Skourmalla

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The present paper draws on the example of the University of Luxembourg as a multilingual and international setting. The University of Luxembourg, which is located between France, Germany, and Belgium, has adopted a new multilingualism policy in 2020, establishing English, French, German, and Luxembourgish as the official languages of the Institution. With around 7.000 students, more than half of which are international students, the University is a meeting point for languages and cultures. This paper includes data from an online survey that with undergraduate students from different disciplines at the University of Luxembourg. Students shared their personal experience and opinions regarding language use in this higher education context, as well as practices they use in learning in this multilingual context. Findings show the role of technology in assisting students in different aspects of learning this multilingual context. At the same time, more needs to be done to avoid an exclusively monolingual paradigm in higher education. Findings also show that some languages remain ‘unseen’ in this context. Overall, even though linguistic diversity in this University is seen as an asset, a lot needs to be done towards the recognition of staff and students’ linguistic repertoires for inclusion and education equity.

Keywords: higher education, learning, linguistic diversity, multilingual practices

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Authors: Nicholas Pearce, Eun-jin Kim

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Pathologies of the cardiovascular (CV) system remain a serious and deadly health problem for human society. Computational modelling provides a relatively accessible tool for diagnosis, treatment, and research into CV disorders. However, numerical models of the CV system have largely focused on the function of the ventricles, frequently overlooking the behaviour of the atria. Furthermore, in the study of the pressure-volume relationship of the heart, which is a key diagnosis of cardiac vascular pathologies, previous works often evoke popular yet questionable time-varying elastance (TVE) method that imposes the pressure-volume relationship instead of calculating it consistently. Despite the convenience of the TVE method, there have been various indications of its limitations and the need for checking its validity in different scenarios. A model of the combined left ventricle (LV) and left atrium (LA) is presented, which consistently considers various feedback mechanisms in the heart without having to use the TVE method. Specifically, a synergistic model of the left ventricle is extended and modified to include the function of the LA. The synergy of the original model is preserved by modelling the electro-mechanical and chemical functions of the micro-scale myofiber for the LA and integrating it with the microscale and macro-organ-scale heart dynamics of the left ventricle and CV circulation. The atrioventricular node function is included and forms the conduction pathway for electrical signals between the atria and ventricle. The model reproduces the essential features of LA behaviour, such as the two-phase pressure-volume relationship and the classic figure of eight pressure-volume loops. Using this model, disorders in the internal cardiac electrical signalling are investigated by recreating the mechano-electric feedback (MEF), which is impossible where the time-varying elastance method is used. The effects of AV node block and slow conduction are then investigated in the presence of an atrial arrhythmia. It is found that electrical disorders and arrhythmia in the LA degrade the CV system by reducing the cardiac output, power, and heart rate.

Keywords: cardiovascular system, left atrium, numerical model, MEF

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Authors: Priyadarshini Alok

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The present situation in India envisages that because of the surge in population and the economy, cities are expected to spill over to hinterland areas. The consumption-led factors such as land, labor, etc. will be boosted. Hence, the need for regional connectivity becomes obligatory. But, there is enormous pressure upon the land; proving itself through rising traffic congestion, roads, and railway accidents. Air transport is practical, but due to decreasing availability of land, this will not be a wise solution. What with the introduction of seaplanes in the country which was once the vital asset in the world prior to Second World War. Maldives has proved it. Seaplanes offer natural landing site and are time and cost-efficient. Seaplanes in accordance with UDAN can prove to be the solution in linking various regions with other states. This research paper aims to offer the feasibility analysis along with site justification of the potential areas in the state of Andhra Pradesh, India; for the operation of seaplanes. The standards are taken from the US Department of Transportation, Federal Aviation Administration for the analysis. The conflation of Seaplanes with UDAN will offer an alternate mode of air connectivity, strengthen the transport network by simulation of connectivity to unserved and under-served areas and boost the nation's economy.

Keywords: connectivity, seaplanes, transport, UDAN

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Authors: Aamar Ilyas

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Value of firm does not only depend upon its financial and material resources rather human resource is also a significant contributor in success of organizations by achieving competitive advantage. Human resource is an important asset so it is the main responsibility of employers to get the best use of this resource. Hence, this paper will explore the human resource practices used by entrepreneurs in the informal economy in Lahore, the provincial capital of Punjab, Pakistan. In this study three major sectors are randomly selected. Snowball sampling technique was applied to collect data. Survey was conducted through interviews of 45 respondents working in the informal sector. The results show that informal sector in Pakistan is not using any formal human resource practices as done by formal enterprises. Findings suggest that there should be the implementation of the human resource practices that help the firm to increase its productivity and ensure the betterment of the employees. The main limitation of the study was short time period to cater all sectors of informal economy of Pakistan which limits the extent of its generalizability. The rationale behind this study is to uncover the facts regarding management practices of human capital in the informal sector.

Keywords: HR practices, informal economy, working condition, recruitment, training, employee motivation, welfare

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Authors: Erwin Stolz, Hannes Mayerl, Anja Waxenegger, Wolfgang Freidl

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Research has often found poverty associated with adverse health outcomes, but it is unclear which (interplay of) mechanisms actually translate low economic resources into poor physical health. The goal of this study was to assess the impact of educational, material, psychosocial and behavioural factors in explaining the poverty-health association in old age. We analysed 28,360 observations from 11,390 community-dwelling respondents (65+) from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE, 2004-2013, 10 countries). We used multilevel growth curve models to assess the impact of combined income- and asset poverty risk on old age frailty index levels and trajectories. In total, 61.8% of the variation of poverty risk on frailty levels could be explained by direct and indirect effects, thereby highlighting the role of material and particularly psychosocial factors, such as perceived control and social isolation. We suggest strengthening social policy and public health efforts in order to fight poverty and its deleterious effects from early age on and to broaden the scope of interventions with regard to psychosocial factors.

Keywords: frailty, health inequality, old age, poverty

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Authors: Sukhvinder Kaur, Ashok Agarwal

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Background: For the first time in 2009, India was able to generate estimates of HIV incidence (the number of new HIV infections per year). Analysis of epidemic projections helped in revealing that the number of new annual HIV infections in India had declined by more than 50% during the last decade (GOI Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, 2010). Then, National AIDS Control Organisation (NACO) planned to scale up its efforts in generating projections through epidemiological analysis and modelling by taking recent available sources of evidence such as HIV Sentinel Surveillance (HSS), India Census data and other critical data sets. Recently, NACO generated current round of HIV estimates-2012 through globally recommended tool “Spectrum Software” and came out with the estimates for adult HIV prevalence, annual new infections, number of people living with HIV, AIDS-related deaths and treatment needs. State level prevalence and incidence projections produced were used to project consequences of the epidemic in spectrum. In presence of HIV estimates generated at state level in India by NACO, USIAD funded PIPPSE project under the leadership of NACO undertook the estimations and projections to district level using same Spectrum software. In 2011, adult HIV prevalence in one of the high prevalent States, Maharashtra was 0.42% ahead of the national average of 0.27%. Considering the heterogeneity of HIV epidemic between districts, two districts of Maharashtra – Thane and Mumbai were selected to estimate and project the number of People-Living-with-HIV/AIDS (PLHIV), HIV-prevalence among adults and annual new HIV infections till 2017. Methodology: Inputs in spectrum included demographic data from Census of India since 1980 and sample registration system, programmatic data on ‘Alive and on ART (adult and children)’,‘Mother-Baby pairs under PPTCT’ and ‘High Risk Group (HRG)-size mapping estimates’, surveillance data from various rounds of HSS, National Family Health Survey–III, Integrated Biological and Behavioural Assessment and Behavioural Sentinel Surveillance. Major Findings: Assuming current programmatic interventions in these districts, an estimated decrease of 12% points in Thane and 31% points in Mumbai among new infections in HRGs and migrants is observed from 2011 by 2017. Conclusions: Project also validated decrease in HIV new infection among one of the high risk groups-FSWs using program cohort data since 2012 to 2016. Though there is a decrease in HIV prevalence and new infections in Thane and Mumbai, further decrease is possible if appropriate programme response, strategies and interventions are envisaged for specific target groups based on this evidence. Moreover, evidence need to be validated by other estimation/modelling techniques; and evidence can be generated for other districts of the state, where HIV prevalence is high and reliable data sources are available, to understand the epidemic within the local context.

Keywords: HIV sentinel surveillance, high risk groups, projections, new infections

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Authors: Ravi Verma

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Cryosorption pump is the best solution to achieve clean, vibration free ultra-high vacuum. Furthermore, the operation of cryosorption pump is free from the influence of electric and magnetic fields. Due to these attributes, this pump is used in the space simulation chamber to create the ultra-high vacuum. The cryosorption pump comprises of three parts (a) panel which is cooled with the help of cryogen or cryocooler, (b) an adsorbent which is used to adsorb the gas molecules, (c) an epoxy which holds the adsorbent and the panel together thereby aiding in heat transfer from adsorbent to the panel. The performance of cryosorption pump depends on the temperature of the adsorbent and hence, on the thermal conductivity of the epoxy. Therefore we have made an attempt to increase the thermal conductivity of epoxy adhesive by mixing nano-sized graphene filler particles. The thermal conductivity of epoxy-graphene composite adhesive is measured with the help of indigenously developed experimental setup in the temperature range from 4.5 K to 7 K, which is generally the operating temperature range of cryosorption pump for efficiently pumping of hydrogen and helium gas. In this article, we have presented the experimental results of epoxy-graphene composite adhesive in the temperature range from 4.5 K to 7 K. We have also proposed an analytical heat conduction model to find the thermal conductivity of the composite. In this case, the filler particles, such as graphene, are randomly distributed in a base matrix of epoxy. The developed model considers the complete spatial random distribution of filler particles and this distribution is explained by Binomial distribution. The results obtained by the model have been compared with the experimental results as well as with the other established models. The developed model is able to predict the thermal conductivity in both isotropic regions as well as in anisotropic region over the required temperature range from 4.5 K to 7 K. Due to the non-empirical nature of the proposed model, it will be useful for the prediction of other properties of composite materials involving the filler in a base matrix. The present studies will aid in the understanding of low temperature heat transfer which in turn will be useful towards the development of high performance cryosorption pump.

Keywords: composite adhesive, computational modelling, cryosorption pump, thermal conductivity

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Authors: Taner Cindik, Ferya Tas Ciftci

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Mobbing in the public sector and specific issues (i.e., the demand for non-pecuniary damages) regarding mobbing have become very important in the light of the precedents constituted by the Turkish Council of State in 2010. The legal scope of mobbing is not able to be determined since the concept of mobbing is not defined in Turkish law system. This study aims to reveal three major problems caused by the lack of laws related to mobbing in the Turkish legal system. First, the absence of an arrangement for disciplinary penalties leads that general provisions in the disciplinary law are implemented. This situation, therefore, causes difficulties in practice. Second, not being drawn of the lines in the topic concerning mobbing in public sector leads confusions in being direction of hostility. Third, the fact that there is a legal gap on seeking non-pecuniary compensation when employees in public sector are exposed to mobbing might make it difficult to obtain non-pecuniary compensation. Within the context of these major problems, civil servants in Turkey do not have enough protection mechanism. However, some possible legal arrangements will help civil servants to protect against mobbing. This study may be considered important because of the fact that mobbing in the public sector is at a significant level and has not been evaluated in this context before. This research is mainly a study of Turkish legal system and evaluates critically law case to determine legal problems. As a result of this study, three main problems might be identified because there is legal gap regarding mobbing in the public sector. In conclusion, the introduction of the major problems related to mobbing in this study might shed light on making the proper regulations of this subject in Turkish law system. In this respect, the plaintiff will be provided convenience in the point of non-pecuniary damages and this study will guide the assessment of legal liability of those who implement mobbing.

Keywords: human rights violations, mobbing, public sector, direction of hostility, non-pecuniary compensation, disciplinary law

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Authors: Tamás Hartványi, Ferenc Tóth

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European telecommunication distribution center performance is measured by service lead time and quality. Operation model is CTO (customized to order) namely, a high mix customization of telecommunication network equipment and parts. CTO operation contains material receiving, warehousing, network and server assembly to order and configure based on customer specifications. Variety of the product and orders does not support mass production structure. One of the success factors to satisfy customer is to have a proper aggregated planning method for the operation in order to have optimized human resources and highly efficient asset utilization. Research will investigate several methods and find proper way to have an order book simulation where practical optimization problem may contain thousands of variables and the simulation running times of developed algorithms were taken into account with high importance. There are two operation research models that were developed, customer demand is given in orders, no change over time, customer demands are given for product types, and changeover time is constant.

Keywords: CTO, aggregated planning, demand simulation, changeover time

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Authors: Cosmas Pandit Pagwiwoko, Ammar Khaled Abdelaziz Abdelsamia

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Flutter as a phenomenon of flow-induced and self-excited vibration has to be recognized considering its harmful effect on the structure especially in a stage of aircraft design. This phenomenon is also important for a wind energy harvester based on the fluttering surface due to its effective operational velocity range. This multi-physics occurrence can be presented by two governing equations in both fluid and structure simultaneously in respecting certain boundary conditions on the surface of the body. In this work, the equations are resolved separately by two distinct solvers, one-time step of each domain. The modelling and simulation of this flow-structure interaction in ANSYS show the effectiveness of this loosely coupled method in representing flutter phenomenon however the process is time-consuming for design purposes. Therefore, another technique using the same weak coupled aero-structure is proposed by using system dynamics approach. In this technique, the aerodynamic forces were calculated using singularity function for a range of frequencies and certain natural mode shapes are transformed into time domain by employing an approximation model of fraction rational function in Laplace variable. The representation of structure in a multi-degree-of-freedom coupled with a transfer function of aerodynamic forces can then be simulated in time domain on a block-diagram platform such as Simulink MATLAB. The dynamic response of flutter at certain velocity can be evaluated with another established flutter calculation in frequency domain k-method. In this method, a parameter of artificial structural damping is inserted in the equation of motion to assure the energy balance of flow and vibrating structure. The simulation in time domain is particularly interested as it enables to apply the structural non-linear factors accurately. Experimental tests on a fluttering airfoil in the wind tunnel are also conducted to validate the method.

Keywords: flutter, flow-induced vibration, flow-structure interaction, non-linear structure

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Authors: Colin O’Hare, Zili Zho, Thomas Sneddon

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The Australian superannuation system has received high praise for its participation rates and level of funding in retirement yet it is only 25 years old. In recent years, with increasing longevity and persistent lower rates of investment return, how adequate will the funds accumulated through a superannuation system be? In this paper we take Australia as a case study and build a stochastic model of accumulation and decummulation of funds and determine the expected number of years a fund may last an individual in retirement.

Keywords: component, mortality, stochastic models, superannuation

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Authors: Katharina Fellnhofer

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The more information and knowledge that technology provides, the more important are profoundly human skills like intuition, the skill of using nonconscious information. As our world becomes more complex, shaken by crises, and characterized by uncertainty, time pressure, ambiguity, and rapidly changing conditions, intuition is increasingly recognized as a key human asset. However, due to methodological limitations of sample size or time frame or a lack of real-world or cross-cultural scope, precisely how to measure intuition when facing risks on a nonconscious level remains unclear. In light of the measurement challenge related to intuition’s nonconscious nature, a technique is introduced to measure intuition via hidden images as nonconscious additional information to trigger intuition. This technique has been tested in a within-subject fully online design with 62,721 real-world investment decisions made by 657 subjects in Europe and the United States. Bayesian models highlight the technique’s potential to measure skill at using nonconscious information for conscious decision making. Over the long term, solving the mysteries of intuition and mastering its use could be of immense value in personal and organizational decision-making contexts.

Keywords: cognition, intuition, investment decisions, methodology

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Authors: Argyro-Maria Skourmalla

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Today’s reality is characterized by diversity in different levels and aspects of everyday life. Focusing on the aspect of language and communication in Higher Education (HE), the present paper draws on the example of the University of Luxembourg as a multilingual and international setting. The University of Luxembourg, which is located between France, Germany, and Belgium, adopted its new multilingualism policy in 2020, establishing English, French, German, and Luxembourgish as the official languages of the Institution. In addition, with around 10.000 students and staff coming from various countries around the world, linguistic diversity in this university is seen as both a resource and a challenge that calls for an inclusive and multilingual approach. The present paper includes data derived from semi-structured interviews with lecturing staff from different disciplines and an online survey with undergraduate students at the University of Luxembourg. Participants shared their experiences and point of view regarding linguistic diversity in this context. Findings show that linguistic diversity in this university is seen as an asset but comes with challenges, and even though there is progress in the use of multilingual practices, a lot needs to be done towards the recognition of staff and students’ linguistic repertoires for inclusion and education equity.

Keywords: linguistic diversity, higher education, Luxembourg, multilingual practices, teaching, learning

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Authors: Mansur Hamma-Adama, Tahar Kouider

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Construction Industry has been evolving since the development of Building Information Modelling (BIM). This technological process is unstoppable; it is out to the market with remarkable case studies of solving the long industry’s history of fragmentation. This industry has been changing over time; United States has recorded the most significant development in construction digitalization, Australia, United Kingdom and some other developed nations are also amongst promoters of BIM process and its development. Recently, a developing country like China and Malaysia are keying into the industry’s digital shift, while very little move is seen in South Africa whose development is considered higher and perhaps leader in the digital transition amongst the African countries. To authors’ best knowledge, Nigerian construction industry has never engaged in BIM discussions hence has no attention at national level. Consequently, Nigeria has no “Noteworthy BIM publications.” Decision makers and key stakeholders need to be informed on the current trend of the industry’s development (BIM in specific) and the opportunities of adopting this digitalization trend in relation to the identified challenges. BIM concept can be traced mostly in Architectural practices than engineering practices in Nigeria. A superficial BIM practice is found to be at organisational level only and operating a model based - “BIM stage 1.” Research to adopting this innovation has received very little attention. This piece of work is literature review based, aimed at exploring BIM in Nigeria and its prospects. The exploration reveals limitations in the literature availability as to extensive research in the development of BIM in the country. Numerous challenges were noticed including building collapse, inefficiencies, cost overrun and late project delivery. BIM has potentials to overcome the above challenges and even beyond. Low level of BIM adoption with reasonable level of awareness is noticed. However, lack of policy and guideline as well as serious lack of experts in the field are amongst the major barriers to BIM adoption. The industry needs to embrace BIM to possibly compete with its global counterpart.

Keywords: adoption, BIM, CAD, construction industry, Nigeria, opportunities

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Authors: Said Echchakoui

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This paper aims to investigate how experiential value added by the salesperson mediates the relationship between perceived salesperson source characteristics and his performance. Structural equation modelling was employed to assess the proposed research model empirically. The empirical results revealed that the three dimensions of experiential value economic benefit, service productivity and enjoyable interaction, mediated the relationship between perceived salesperson source characteristics and his performance. Managerial implications are addressed.

Keywords: sales force, experiential added value, customer perceived value, performance

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Authors: Pablo Martinez, Emad Mohamed, Osama Mohsen, Yasser Mohamed

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Highway and bridge agencies, such as the Ministry of Transportation in Ontario, use the Bridge Condition Index (BCI) which is defined as the weighted condition of all bridge elements to determine the rehabilitation priorities for its bridges. Therefore, accurate forecasting of BCI is essential for bridge rehabilitation budgeting planning. The large amount of data available in regard to bridge conditions for several years dictate utilizing traditional mathematical models as infeasible analysis methods. This research study focuses on investigating different classification models that are developed to predict the bridge condition index in the province of Ontario, Canada based on the publicly available data for 2800 bridges over a period of more than 10 years. The data preparation is a key factor to develop acceptable classification models even with the simplest one, the k-NN model. All the models were tested, compared and statistically validated via cross validation and t-test. A simple k-NN model showed reasonable results (within 0.5% relative error) when predicting the bridge condition in an incoming year.

Keywords: asset management, bridge condition index, data mining, forecasting, infrastructure, knowledge discovery in databases, maintenance, predictive models

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Authors: Haffaf Hafid

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Hypergraphs, after being used to model the structural organization of System of Sytems (SoS) at macroscopic level, has recent trends towards generalizing this powerful representation at different stages of complex system modelling. In this paper, we first describe different applications of hypergraph theory, and step by step, introduce multilevel modeling of SoS by means of integrating Constraint Programming Langages (CSP) dealing with engineering system reconfiguration strategy. As an application, we give an A.C.T Terminal controlled by a set of Intelligent Automated Vehicle.

Keywords: hypergraph model, structural analysis, bipartite graph, monitoring, system of systems, reconfiguration analysis, hypernetwork

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Authors: Gergely Horváth

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The study presents the complexity of food safety dividing it into two layers. Beyond the basic layer of requirements, there is a more demanding higher level linked with quality and purity aspects. It would be important to give special prominence to both layers, given that massive illnesses are caused by foods even though officially licensed. Then the study discusses an exciting safety challenge stemming from the risks of genetically modified organisms (GMOs). Furthermore, it features legal case examples that illustrate how certain liability questions are solved or not yet decided in connection with the production of genetically modified crops. In addition, a special kind of land grabbing, more precisely land grabbing from non-GMO farming systems can also be noticed as well as a new phenomenon eroding food sovereignty. Coexistence, the state where organic, conventional, and GM farming systems are standing alongside each other is an unsuitable experiment that cannot be successful, because of biophysical reasons (such as cross-pollination). Agricultural and environmental lawyers both try to find the optimal solution. Agri-environmental measures are introduced as a special subfield of law maintaining also food safety. The important steps of agri-environmental legislation are aiming at the protection of natural values, the environmental media and strengthening food safety as well, practically the quality of agricultural products intended for human consumption. The major findings of the study focus on searching for the appropriate approach capable of solving the security and safety problems of food production. The most interesting concepts of the Hungarian national and EU food law legislation are analyzed in more detail with descriptive, analytic and comparative methods.

Keywords: food law, food safety, food security, GMO, Genetically Modified Organisms, agri-environmental measures

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Authors: Imen Dhaou

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This study examines conditional Value at Risk by applying the GJR-EVT-Copula model, and finds the optimal portfolio for eight Dow Jones Islamic-conventional pairs. Our methodology consists of modeling the data by a bivariate GJR-GARCH model in which we extract the filtered residuals and then apply the Peak over threshold model (POT) to fit the residual tails in order to model marginal distributions. After that, we use pair-copula to find the optimal portfolio risk dependence structure. Finally, with Monte Carlo simulations, we estimate the Value at Risk (VaR) and the conditional Value at Risk (CVaR). The empirical results show the VaR and CVaR values for an equally weighted portfolio of Dow Jones Islamic-conventional pairs. In sum, we found that the optimal investment focuses on Islamic-conventional US Market index pairs because of high investment proportion; however, all other index pairs have low investment proportion. These results deliver some real repercussions for portfolio managers and policymakers concerning to optimal asset allocations, portfolio risk management and the diversification advantages of these markets.

Keywords: CVaR, Dow Jones Islamic index, GJR-GARCH-EVT-pair copula, portfolio optimization

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Authors: Rajaa Filali, Mohamed Bouhdadi

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This paper presents an incremental formal development of the Wireless Transaction Protocol (WTP) in Event-B. WTP is part of the Wireless Application Protocol (WAP) architectures and provides a reliable request-response service. To model and verify the protocol, we use the formal technique Event-B which provides an accessible and rigorous development method. This interaction between modelling and proving reduces the complexity and helps to eliminate misunderstandings, inconsistencies, and specification gaps. As result, verification of WTP allows us to find some deficiencies in the current specification.

Keywords: event-B, wireless transaction protocol, proof obligation, refinement, Rodin, ProB

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Authors: Timothy Kayode Samson, Adedoyin Isola Lawal

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The past five years have shown a sharp increase in public interest in the crypto market, with its market capitalization growing from $100 billion in June 2017 to $2158.42 billion on April 5, 2022. Despite the outrageous nature of the volatility of cryptocurrencies, the use of skewed error innovation distributions in modelling the volatility behaviour of these digital currencies has not been given much research attention. Hence, this study models the volatility of 5 largest cryptocurrencies by market capitalization (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Tether, Binance coin, and USD Coin) using four variants of GARCH models (GJR-GARCH, sGARCH, EGARCH, and APARCH) estimated using three skewed error innovation distributions (skewed normal, skewed student- t and skewed generalized error innovation distributions). Daily closing prices of these currencies were obtained from Yahoo Finance website. Finding reveals that the Binance coin reported higher mean returns compared to other digital currencies, while the skewness indicates that the Binance coin, Tether, and USD coin increased more than they decreased in values within the period of study. For both Bitcoin and Ethereum, negative skewness was obtained, meaning that within the period of study, the returns of these currencies decreased more than they increased in value. Returns from these cryptocurrencies were found to be stationary but not normality distributed with evidence of the ARCH effect. The skewness parameters in all best forecasting models were all significant (p<.05), justifying of use of skewed error innovation distributions with a fatter tail than normal, Student-t, and generalized error innovation distributions. For Binance coin, EGARCH-sstd outperformed other volatility models, while for Bitcoin, Ethereum, Tether, and USD coin, the best forecasting models were EGARCH-sstd, APARCH-sstd, EGARCH-sged, and GJR-GARCH-sstd, respectively. This suggests the superiority of skewed Student t- distribution and skewed generalized error distribution over the skewed normal distribution.

Keywords: skewed generalized error distribution, skewed normal distribution, skewed student t- distribution, APARCH, EGARCH, sGARCH, GJR-GARCH

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Authors: Romeo Malik, Yashraj Tripathy, Anup Barai

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Transportation safety is a major concern for vehicle electrification on a large-scale. The failure cost of lithium-ion batteries is substantial and is significantly impacted by higher liability and replacement cost. With continuous advancement on the material front in terms of higher energy density, upgrading safety characteristics are becoming more crucial for broader integration of lithium-ion batteries. Understanding and impeding thermal runaway is the prime issue for battery safety researchers. In this study, a comprehensive comparison of thermal runaway mechanisms for two different cathode types, Li(Ni₀.₃Co₀.₃Mn₀.₃)O₂ and Li(Ni₀.₈Co₀.₁₅Al₀.₀₅)O₂ is explored. Both the chemistries were studied for different states of charge, and the various abuse scenarios that lead to thermal runaway is investigated. Abuse tests include mechanical abuse, electrical abuse, and thermal abuse. Batteries undergo thermal runaway due to a series of combustible reactions taking place internally; this is observed as multiple jets of flame reaching temperatures of the order of 1000ºC. The physicochemical characterisation was performed on cells, prior to and after abuse. Battery’s state of charge and chemistry have a significant effect on the flame temperature profiles which is otherwise quantified as heat released. Majority of the failures during transportation is due to these external short circuit. Finally, a mitigation approach is proposed to impede the thermal runaway hazard. Transporting lithium-ion batteries under low states of charge is proposed as a way forward. Batteries at low states of charge have demonstrated minimal heat release under thermal runaway reducing the risk of secondary hazards such as thermal runaway propagation.

Keywords: battery reliability, lithium-ion batteries, thermal runaway characterisation, tomography

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Authors: João Coutinho-Rodrigues, Nuno Sousa, Luís Alçada-Almeida

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Transportation infrastructure systems are fundamental in modern society and economy. However, they need modernizing, maintaining, and reinforcing interventions which require large investments. In many countries, accumulated intervention delays arise from aging and intense use, being magnified by financial constraints of the past. The decision problem of managing the renewal of large backlogs is common to several types of important transportation infrastructures (e.g., railways, roads). This problem requires considering financial aspects as well as operational constraints under a multidimensional framework. The present research introduces a linear programming multiobjective model for managing railway infrastructure asset renewal. The model aims at minimizing three objectives: (i) yearly investment peak, by evenly spreading investment throughout multiple years; (ii) total cost, which includes extra maintenance costs incurred from renewal backlogs; (iii) priority delays related to work start postponements on the higher priority railway sections. Operational constraints ensure that passenger and freight services are not excessively delayed from having railway line sections under intervention. Achieving a balanced annual investment plan, without compromising the total financial effort or excessively postponing the execution of the priority works, was the motivation for pursuing the research which is now presented. The methodology, inspired by a real case study and tested with real data, reflects aspects of the practice of an infrastructure management company and is generalizable to different types of infrastructure (e.g., railways, highways). It was conceived for treating renewal interventions in infrastructure assets, which is a railway network may be rails, ballasts, sleepers, etc.; while a section is under intervention, trains must run at reduced speed, causing delays in services. The model cannot, therefore, allow for an accumulation of works on the same line, which may cause excessively large delays. Similarly, the lines do not all have the same socio-economic importance or service intensity, making it is necessary to prioritize the sections to be renewed. The model takes these issues into account, and its output is an optimized works schedule for the renewal project translatable in Gantt charts The infrastructure management company provided all the data for the first test case study and validated the parameterization. This case consists of several sections to be renewed, over 5 years and belonging to 17 lines. A large instance was also generated, reflecting a problem of a size similar to the USA railway network (considered the largest one in the world), so it is not expected that considerably larger problems appear in real life; an average of 25 years backlog and ten years of project horizon was considered. Despite the very large increase in the number of decision variables (200 times as large), the computational time cost did not increase very significantly. It is thus expectable that just about any real-life problem can be treated in a modern computer, regardless of size. The trade-off analysis shows that if the decision maker allows some increase in max yearly investment (i.e., degradation of objective ii), solutions improve considerably in the remaining two objectives.

Keywords: transport infrastructure, asset renewal, railway maintenance, multiobjective modeling

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Authors: Yi-Min Lan, Hung-Wen Cheng, Hsuan-Ling Chang, Jou-Ping Yu

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The study applies machine learning models to construct momentum strategies and utilizes the information coefficient as an indicator for selecting stocks with strong and weak momentum characteristics. Through this approach, the study has built investment portfolios capable of generating superior returns and conducted a thorough analysis. Compared to existing research on momentum strategies, machine learning is incorporated to capture non-linear interactions. This approach enhances the conventional stock selection process, which is often impeded by difficulties associated with timeliness, accuracy, and efficiency due to market risk factors. The study finds that implementing bidirectional momentum strategies outperforms unidirectional ones, and momentum factors with longer observation periods exhibit stronger correlations with returns. Optimizing the number of stocks in the portfolio while staying within a certain threshold leads to the highest level of excess returns. The study presents a novel framework for momentum strategies that enhances and improves the operational aspects of asset management. By introducing innovative financial technology applications to traditional investment strategies, this paper can demonstrate significant effectiveness.

Keywords: information coefficient, machine learning, momentum, portfolio, return prediction

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Authors: Aishwarya Venkat, Anastasia Marshak, Ryan B. Simpson, Elena N. Naumova

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Livestock ownership is simultaneously linked to improved nutritional status through increased availability of animal-source protein, and increased risk of enteric infections through higher exposure to contaminated water sources. Agrarian and agro-pastoral households, especially those with cattle, goats, and sheep, are highly dependent on seasonally various environmental conditions, which directly impact nutrition and health. This study explores global spatiotemporally explicit evidence regarding the relationship between livestock ownership, enteric infections, and malnutrition. Seasonal and cyclical fluctuations, as well as mediating effects, are further examined to elucidate health and nutrition outcomes of individual and communal livestock ownership. The US Agency for International Development’s Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) and the United Nations International Children's Emergency Fund’s Multi-Indicator Cluster Surveys (MICS) provide valuable sources of household-level information on anthropometry, asset ownership, and disease outcomes. These data are especially important in data-sparse regions, where surveys may only be conducted in the aftermath of emergencies. Child-level disease history, anthropometry, and household-level asset ownership information have been collected since DHS-V (2003-present) and MICS-III (2005-present). This analysis combines over 15 years of survey data from DHS and MICS to study 2,466,257 children under age five from 82 countries. Subnational (administrative level 1) measures of diarrhea prevalence, mean livestock ownership by type, mean and median anthropometric measures (height for age, weight for age, and weight for height) were investigated. Effects of several environmental, market, community, and household-level determinants were studied. Such covariates included precipitation, temperature, vegetation, the market price of staple cereals and animal source proteins, conflict events, livelihood zones, wealth indices and access to water, sanitation, hygiene, and public health services. Children aged 0 – 6 months, 6 months – 2 years, and 2 – 5 years of age were compared separately. All observations were standardized to interview day of year, and administrative units were harmonized for consistent comparisons over time. Geographically weighted regressions were constructed for each outcome and subnational unit. Preliminary results demonstrate the importance of accounting for seasonality in concurrent assessments of malnutrition and enteric infections. Household assets, including livestock, often determine the intensity of these outcomes. In many regions, livestock ownership affects seasonal fluxes in malnutrition and enteric infections, which are also directly affected by environmental and local factors. Regression analysis demonstrates the spatiotemporal variability in nutrition outcomes due to a variety of causal factors. This analysis presents a synthesis of evidence from global survey data on the interrelationship between enteric infections, malnutrition, and livestock. These results provide a starting point for locally appropriate interventions designed to address this nexus in a timely manner and simultaneously improve health, nutrition, and livelihoods.

Keywords: diarrhea, enteric infections, households, livestock, malnutrition, seasonality

Procedia PDF Downloads 126