Search results for: demand fragility curve

Authors: Tamar Lazariashvili

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The development of agrotourism in Georgia has significant potential. The trend of population growth and demand for agrotourism products makes the interest and importance of the development of this field even more relevant. The article studies the trends in the development of agrotourism in Georgia; SWOT analysis reveals the potential for the development of agrotourism and assesses the perspectives, examines the factors hindering the development of agrotourism, assesses the role of the state in the development of agrotourism. Objectives: The purpose of the study is to determine the development trends of agrotourism in Georgia and to develop recommendations for prospective directions based on the assessment of the field's potential. Methodologies: Research methods are used: analysis, synthesis, induction, deduction, comparison, statistical (selection, grouping, observation, trend) and other methods, as well as SWOT analysis. Contributions: A positive trend in the development of agrotourism has been revealed. It is also shown that the demand for agrotourism products is growing. The agro touristic potential of Georgia was assessed and prospective directions for the development of the field have been determined. Conclusions: are drawn on the problems identified in the work and recommendations are proposed on ways to effectively use the potential opportunities of agrotourism and ways of long-term development.

Keywords: agrotourism, agrotourism products, agrotourism potential, development prospects.

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Authors: Mohammad Mahdi Paydar, Armin Cheraghalipour, Mostafa Hajiaghaei-Keshteli

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Nowadays, in advanced countries, agriculture as one of the most significant sectors of the economy, plays an important role in its political and economic independence. Due to farmers' lack of information about products' demand and lack of proper planning for harvest time, annually the considerable amount of products is corrupted. Besides, in this paper, we attempt to improve these unfavorable conditions via designing an effective supply chain network that tries to minimize total costs of agricultural products along with minimizing shortage in demand points. To validate the proposed model, a stochastic optimization approach by using a branch and bound solver of the LINGO software is utilized. Furthermore, to accumulate the data of parameters, a case study in Mazandaran province placed in the north of Iran has been applied. Finally, using ɛ-constraint approach, a Pareto front is obtained and one of its Pareto solutions as best solution is selected. Then, related results of this solution are explained. Finally, conclusions and suggestions for the future research are presented.

Keywords: perishable products, stochastic optimization, agricultural supply chain, ɛ-constraint

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Authors: Ehsan Saghehei, Mahdi Eghbali

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The maximal covering location problem (MCLP) was originally developed to determine a set of facility locations which would maximize the total customers' demand serviced by the facilities within a predetermined critical service criterion. However, on some problems that differences between the demand nodes are covered or the number of nodes each node is large, the method of solving MCLP may ignore these differences. In this paper, Heuristic solution based on the ranking of demands in each node and the number of nodes covered by each node according to a predetermined critical value is proposed. The output of this method is to maximize total demands of nodes and number of covered nodes, simultaneously. Furthermore, by providing an example, the solution algorithm is described and its results are compared with Greedy and Lagrange algorithms. Also, the results of the algorithm to solve the larger problem sizes that compared with other methods are provided. A summary and future works conclude the paper.

Keywords: heuristic solution, maximal covering location problem, ranking, set covering

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Authors: Chayanika Rout, Debjani Chakraborty, Adrijit Goswami

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Our work presents an inventory model which illustrates imperfect production and imperfect inspection processes for deteriorating items. A cost-minimizing model is studied considering two types of inspection errors, namely, Type I error of falsely screening out a proportion of non-defects, thereby passing them on for rework and Type II error of falsely not screening out a proportion of defects, thus selling those to customers which incurs a penalty cost. The screened items are reworked; however, no returns are entertained due to deteriorating nature of the items. In more practical situations, certain parameters such as the demand rate and the deterioration rate of inventory cannot be accurately determined, and therefore, they are assumed to be triangular fuzzy numbers in our model. We calculate the optimal lot size that must be produced in order to minimize the total inventory cost for both the crisp and the fuzzy models. A numerical example is also considered to exemplify the procedure which is followed by the analysis of sensitivity of various parameters on the decision variable and the objective function.

Keywords: deteriorating items, EPQ, imperfect quality, rework, type I and type II inspection errors

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Authors: Shishay Kidanu, Abdullah Alhaj

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Sinkholes in the karst terrain of Greene County, Missouri, pose significant geohazards, imposing challenges on construction and infrastructure development, with potential threats to lives and property. To address these issues, understanding the influencing factors and modeling sinkhole susceptibility is crucial for effective mitigation through strategic changes in land use planning and practices. This study utilizes geographic information system (GIS) software to collect and process diverse data, including topographic, geologic, hydrogeologic, and anthropogenic information. Nine key sinkhole influencing factors, ranging from slope characteristics to proximity to geological structures, were carefully analyzed. The Frequency Ratio method establishes relationships between attribute classes of these factors and sinkhole events, deriving class weights to indicate their relative importance. Weighted integration of these factors is accomplished using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and the Weighted Linear Combination (WLC) method in a GIS environment, resulting in a comprehensive sinkhole susceptibility index (SSI) model for the study area. Employing Jenk's natural break classifier method, the SSI values are categorized into five distinct sinkhole susceptibility zones: very low, low, moderate, high, and very high. Validation of the model, conducted through the Area Under Curve (AUC) and Sinkhole Density Index (SDI) methods, demonstrates a robust correlation with sinkhole inventory data. The prediction rate curve yields an AUC value of 74%, indicating a 74% validation accuracy. The SDI result further supports the success of the sinkhole susceptibility model. This model offers reliable predictions for the future distribution of sinkholes, providing valuable insights for planners and engineers in the formulation of development plans and land-use strategies. Its application extends to enhancing preparedness and minimizing the impact of sinkhole-related geohazards on both infrastructure and the community.

Keywords: sinkhole, GIS, analytical hierarchy process, frequency ratio, susceptibility, Missouri

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Authors: Endang Jati Mat Sahid, Hussain Ali Bekhet

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Robust economic growth, increasing population, and personal consumption are the main drivers for the rapid increase of energy demand in Malaysia. Increasing demand has compounded the issue of national energy security due to over-dependence on fossil fuel, depleting indigenous domestic conventional energy resources which in turns has increased the country’s energy import dependence. In order to improve its energy security, Malaysia has seriously embarked on a renewable energy journey. Many initiatives on renewable energy have been introduced in the past decade. These strategies have resulted in the exploding growth of renewable energy deployment in Malaysia. Therefore, this study investigated the impact of renewable energy deployment on energy security. Secondary data was used to calculate the energy security indicators. The study also compared the results of applying different energy security indicators namely availability, applicability, affordability and acceptability dimension of energy resources. The evaluation shows that Malaysia will experience slight improvement in availability and acceptability dimension of energy security. This study suggests that energy security level could be further enhanced by efficient utilization of energy, reducing carbon content of energy and facilitating low-carbon industries.

Keywords: energy policy, energy security, Malaysia, renewable energy

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Authors: Madan Chandra Maurya, A. R. Dar

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Among the entire natural calamities earthquake is the one which is most devastating. If the losses due to all other calamities are added still it will be very less than the losses due to earthquakes. So it means we must be ready to face such a situation, which is only possible if we make our structures earthquake resistant. A review of structural damages to the braced frame systems after several major earthquakes—including recent earthquakes—has identified some anticipated and unanticipated damage. This damage has prompted many engineers and researchers around the world to consider new approaches to improve the behavior of braced frame systems. Extensive experimental studies over the last fourty years of conventional buckling brace components and several braced frame specimens have been briefly reviewed, highlighting that the number of studies on the full-scale concentric braced frames is still limited. So for this reason the study surrounds the words plastic behavior, steel structure, brace frame system. In this study, there are two different analytical approaches which have been used to predict the behavior and strength of an un-braced frame. The first is referred as incremental elasto-plastic analysis a plastic approach. This method gives a complete load-deflection history of the structure until collapse. It is based on the plastic hinge concept for fully plastic cross sections in a structure under increasing proportional loading. In this, the incremental elasto-plastic analysis- hinge by hinge method is used in this study because of its simplicity to know the complete load- deformation history of two storey un-braced scaled model. After that the experiments were conducted on two storey scaled building model with and without bracing system to know the true or experimental load deformation curve of scaled model. Only way, is to understand and analyze these techniques and adopt these techniques in our structures. The study named as Plastic Behavior of Steel Frames using Different Concentric Bracing Configurations deals with all this. This study aimed at improving the already practiced traditional systems and to check the behavior and its usefulness with respect to X-braced system as reference model i.e. is how plastically it is different from X-braced. Laboratory tests involved determination of plastic behavior of these models (with and without brace) in terms of load-deformation curve. Thus, the aim of this study is to improve the lateral displacement resistance capacity by using new configuration of brace member in concentric manner which is different from conventional concentric brace. Once the experimental and manual results (using plastic approach) compared, simultaneously the results from both approach were also compared with nonlinear static analysis (pushover analysis) approach using ETABS i.e how both the previous results closely depicts the behavior in pushover curve and upto what limit. Tests results shows that all the three approaches behaves somewhat in similar manner upto yield point and also the applicability of elasto-plastic analysis (hinge by hinge method) to know the plastic behavior. Finally the outcome from three approaches shows that the newer one configuration which is chosen for study behaves in-between the plane frame (without brace or reference frame) and the conventional X-brace frame.

Keywords: elasto-plastic analysis, concentric steel braced frame, pushover analysis, ETABS

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Authors: Kehinde Damilola Ilesanmi, Dev Datt Tewari

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South Africa is in its post-industrial era moving from the primary and secondary sector to the tertiary sector. The study investigated the impact of the disaggregated energy consumption (coal, oil, and electricity) on the primary, secondary and tertiary sectors of the economy between 1980 and 2012 in South Africa. Using vector error correction model, it was established that South Africa is an energy dependent economy, and that energy (especially electricity and oil) is a limiting factor of growth. This implies that implementation of energy conservation policies may hamper economic growth. Output growth is significantly outpacing energy supply, which has necessitated load shedding. To meet up the excess energy demand, there is a need to increase the generating capacity which will necessitate increased investment in the electricity sector as well as strategic steps to increase oil production. There is also need to explore more renewable energy sources, in order to meet the growing energy demand without compromising growth and environmental sustainability. Policy makers should also pursue energy efficiency policies especially at sectoral level of the economy.

Keywords: causality, economic growth, energy consumption, hypothesis, sectoral output

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Authors: Luis A. Lizama-Perez, Manuel J. Linares, Mauricio Lopez

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We introduce a method to perform remote user authentication on what we call non-invertible cryptography. It exploits the fact that the multiplication of an invertible integer and a non-invertible integer in a ring Zn produces a non-invertible integer making infeasible to compute factorization. The protocol requires the smallest key size when is compared with the main public key algorithms as Diffie-Hellman, Rivest-Shamir-Adleman or Elliptic Curve Cryptography. Since we found that the unique opportunity for the eavesdropper is to mount an exhaustive search on the keys, the protocol seems to be post-quantum.

Keywords: invertible, non-invertible, ring, key transfer

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Authors: Tamás Hartványi, Ferenc Tóth

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European telecommunication distribution center performance is measured by service lead time and quality. Operation model is CTO (customized to order) namely, a high mix customization of telecommunication network equipment and parts. CTO operation contains material receiving, warehousing, network and server assembly to order and configure based on customer specifications. Variety of the product and orders does not support mass production structure. One of the success factors to satisfy customer is to have a proper aggregated planning method for the operation in order to have optimized human resources and highly efficient asset utilization. Research will investigate several methods and find proper way to have an order book simulation where practical optimization problem may contain thousands of variables and the simulation running times of developed algorithms were taken into account with high importance. There are two operation research models that were developed, customer demand is given in orders, no change over time, customer demands are given for product types, and changeover time is constant.

Keywords: CTO, aggregated planning, demand simulation, changeover time

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Authors: Supriya Gupta, Paresh Chokshi

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Polymer-particle interactions can be effectively utilized to produce composites that possess physicochemical properties superior to that of neat polymer. The incorporation of fillers with dimensions comparable to polymer chain size produces composites with extra-ordinary properties owing to very high surface to volume ratio. The dispersion of nanoparticles is achieved by inducing steric repulsion realized by grafting particles with polymeric chains. A comprehensive understanding of the interparticle interaction between these functionalized nanoparticles plays an important role in the synthesis of a stable polymer nanocomposite. With the focus on incorporation of clay sheets in a polymer matrix, we theoretically construct the polymer mediated interparticle potential for two nanosheets grafted with polymeric chains. The self-consistent field theory (SCFT) is employed to obtain the inhomogeneous composition field under equilibrium. Unlike the continuum models, SCFT is built from the microscopic description taking in to account the molecular interactions contributed by both intra- and inter-chain potentials. We present the results of SCFT calculations of the interaction potential curve for two grafted nanosheets immersed in the matrix of polymeric chains of dissimilar chemistry to that of the grafted chains. The interaction potential is repulsive at short separation and shows depletion attraction for moderate separations induced by high grafting density. It is found that the strength of attraction well can be tuned by altering the compatibility between the grafted and the mobile chains. Further, we construct the interaction potential between two nanosheets grafted with diblock copolymers with one of the blocks being chemically identical to the free polymeric chains. The interplay between the enthalpic interaction between the dissimilar species and the entropy of the free chains gives rise to a rich behavior in interaction potential curve obtained for two separate cases of free chains being chemically similar to either the grafted block or the free block of the grafted diblock chains.

Keywords: clay nanosheets, polymer brush, polymer nanocomposites, self-consistent field theory

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Authors: Murad A. Bein

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This paper empirically examines the time-varying relationship and spillover effects between the international crude oil price and ten emerging equity markets, namely three oil-exporting countries (Brazil, Mexico, and Russia) and seven Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries (Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, and Slovakia). The results revealed that there are spillover effects from oil markets into almost all emerging equity markets save Slovakia. Besides, the oil supply glut had a homogenous effect on the emerging markets, both net oil-exporting, and oil-importing countries (CEE). Further, the time variance drastically increased during financial turmoil. Indeed, the time variance remained high from 2009 to 2012 in response to aggregate demand shocks (global financial crisis and Eurozone debt crisis) and quantitative easing measures. Interestingly, the time variance was slightly higher for the oil-exporting countries than for some of the CEE countries. Decision-makers in emerging economies should therefore seek policy coordination when dealing with financial turmoil.

Keywords: crude oil, spillover effects, emerging equity, time-varying, aggregate demand shock

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Authors: M. Pawlaczyk-Łuszczyńska, T. Wszołek, A. Dudarewicz, P. Małecki, M. Kłaczyński, A. Bortkiewicz

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Human tolerance to infrasound is defined by the hearing threshold. Infrasound that cannot be heard (or felt) is not annoying and is not thought to have any other adverse or health effects. Recent research has largely confirmed earlier findings. ISO 7196:1995 recommends the use of G-weighted characteristics for the assessment of infrasound. There is a strong correlation between G-weighted SPL and annoyance perception. The aim of this study was to propose exposure limits for infrasound from wind turbines. However, only a few countries have set limits for infrasound. These limits are usually no higher than 85-92 dBG, and none of them are specific to wind turbines. Over the years, a number of studies have been carried out to determine hearing thresholds below 20 Hz. It has been recognized that 10% of young people would be able to perceive 10 Hz at around 90 dB, and it has also been found that the difference in median hearing thresholds between young adults aged around 20 years and older adults aged over 60 years is around 10 dB, irrespective of frequency. This shows that older people (up to about 60 years of age) retain good hearing in the low frequency range, while their sensitivity to higher frequencies is often significantly reduced. In terms of exposure limits for infrasound, the average hearing threshold corresponds to a tone with a G-weighted SPL of about 96 dBG. In contrast, infrasound at Lp,G levels below 85-90 dBG is usually inaudible. The individual hearing threshold can, therefore be 10-15 dB lower than the average threshold, so the recommended limits for environmental infrasound could be 75 dBG or 80 dBG. It is worth noting that the G86 curve has been taken as the threshold of auditory perception of infrasound reached by 90-95% of the population, so the G75 and G80 curves can be taken as the criterion curve for wind turbine infrasound. Finally, two assessment methods and corresponding exposure limit values have been proposed for wind turbine infrasound, i.e. method I - based on G-weighted sound pressure level measurements and method II - based on frequency analysis in 1/3-octave bands in the frequency range 4-20 Hz. Separate limit values have been set for outdoor living areas in the open countryside (Area A) and for noise sensitive areas (Area B). In the case of Method I, infrasound limit values of 80 dBG (for areas A) and 75 dBG (for areas B) have been proposed, while in the case of Method II - criterion curves G80 and G75 have been chosen (for areas A and B, respectively).

Keywords: infrasound, exposure limit, hearing thresholds, wind turbines

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Authors: Akhila Vasudev, Himanshu Kaushik, Tadikonda Venkata Bharat

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A large number of mine tailings are produced every year as part of the extraction process of phosphates, gold, copper, and other materials. Mine tailings are high in water content and have very slow dewatering behavior. The efficient design of tailings dam and economical disposal of these slurries requires the knowledge of tailings consolidation behavior. The large-strain consolidation theory closely predicts the self-weight consolidation of these slurries as the theory considers the conservation of mass and momentum conservation and considers the hydraulic conductivity as a function of void ratio. Classical laboratory techniques, such as settling column test, seepage consolidation test, etc., are expensive and time-consuming for the estimation of hydraulic conductivity variation with void ratio. Inverse estimation of the constitutive relationships from the measured settlement versus time curves is explored. In this work, inverse analysis based on metaheuristics techniques will be explored for predicting the hydraulic conductivity parameters for mine tailings from the base excess pore water pressure dissipation curve and the initial conditions of the mine tailings. The proposed inverse model uses particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm, which is based on the social behavior of animals searching for food sources. The finite-difference numerical solution of the forward analytical model is integrated with the PSO algorithm to solve the inverse problem. The method is tested on synthetic data of base excess pore pressure dissipation curves generated using the finite difference method. The effectiveness of the method is verified using base excess pore pressure dissipation curve obtained from a settling column experiment and further ensured through comparison with available predicted hydraulic conductivity parameters.

Keywords: base excess pore pressure, hydraulic conductivity, large strain consolidation, mine tailings

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Authors: Iulia E. Falcan

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The transition of the European power sector towards a clean, renewable energy (RE) system faces the challenge of meeting power demand in times of low wind speed and low solar radiation, at a reasonable cost. This is likely to be achieved through a combination of 1) energy storage technologies, 2) development of the cross-border power grid, 3) installed overcapacity of RE and 4) dispatchable power sources – such as biomass. This paper uses NASA; derived hourly data on weather patterns of sixteen European countries for the past twenty-five years, and load data from the European Network of Transmission System Operators-Electricity (ENTSO-E), to develop a stochastic optimization model. This model aims to understand the synergies between the four classes of technologies mentioned above and to determine the optimal configuration of the energy technologies portfolio. While this issue has been addressed before, it was done so using deterministic models that extrapolated historic data on weather patterns and power demand, as well as ignoring the risk of an unbalanced grid-risk stemming from both the supply and the demand side. This paper aims to explicitly account for the inherent uncertainty in the energy system transition. It articulates two levels of uncertainty: a) the inherent uncertainty in future weather patterns and b) the uncertainty of fully meeting power demand. The first level of uncertainty is addressed by developing probability distributions for future weather data and thus expected power output from RE technologies, rather than known future power output. The latter level of uncertainty is operationalized by introducing a Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) constraint in the portfolio optimization problem. By setting the risk threshold at different levels – 1%, 5% and 10%, important insights are revealed regarding the synergies of the different energy technologies, i.e., the circumstances under which they behave as either complements or substitutes to each other. The paper concludes that allowing for uncertainty in expected power output - rather than extrapolating historic data - paints a more realistic picture and reveals important departures from results of deterministic models. In addition, explicitly acknowledging the risk of an unbalanced grid - and assigning it different thresholds - reveals non-linearity in the cost functions of different technology portfolio configurations. This finding has significant implications for the design of the European energy mix.

Keywords: cross-border grid extension, energy storage technologies, energy system transition, stochastic portfolio optimization

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Authors: Muhammad Younis

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A ternary 4-point approximating non-stationary subdivision scheme has been introduced that generates the family of $C^2$ limiting curves. The theory of asymptotic equivalence is being used to analyze the convergence and smoothness of the scheme. The comparison of the proposed scheme has been demonstrated using different examples with the existing 4-point ternary approximating schemes, which shows that the limit curves of the proposed scheme behave more pleasantly and can generate conic sections as well.

Keywords: ternary, non-stationary, approximation subdivision scheme, convergence and smoothness

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Authors: Surendar Vaddepalli

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Management education plays a crucial role to enable industry to cope with emerging challenges. It has spread in the last fifteen-twenty years in India and gained popularity as it was aimed at imbibing versatility and multi-tasking abilities in student community. Several management institutions started looking at upgrading their competencies in terms of faculty, research and industry interaction. The competitive business environment has been one of the drivers that paved the way for growing demand for management graduates in the employment market. Industry expects their executives to be engaged in a constant learning process. The ever-increasing demand for managers has led to establish more management institutions; however, the growth was not in line with the expectations from the industry. While top Business Schools are continuously changing the contents and delivery methodologies, academic standards of most of the other Business Schools are not up to the mark and quality of service provided by these institutes has opened various issues for discussion. On this back ground it is important to address the concerns of Indian management education experiencing with time and we have to rethink about the management education and efforts should be made to create a dynamic environment. This paper ties to study the current trends and tries to find out need for value based management education in India to rejuvenate it.

Keywords: management education, management, value based management education, business school, India

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Authors: Nayla El-Kork, Farah Korjieh, Ahmed Bentiba, Mahmoud Korek

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Ab-initio calculations have been performed to investigate the spectroscopic constants for the diatomic compound BeF. Values of the internuclear distance Re, the harmonic frequency ωe, the rotational constants Be, the electronic transition energy with respect to the ground state Te, the eignvalues Ev, the abscissas of the turning points Rmin, Rmax, the rotational constants Bv and the centrifugal distortion constants Dv have been calculated for the molecule’s ground and excited electronic states. Results are in agreement with experimental data.

Keywords: spectroscopic constant, potential energy curve, diatomic molecule, spectral analysis

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Authors: Salima Djehaichia, Rachid Lassoued

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Reinforced concrete structural walls are very efficient elements for protecting buildings against excessive early damage and against collapse under earthquake actions. It is therefore of interest to develop a numerical model which simulates the typical behavior of these units, this paper presents and describes different modeling techniques that have been used by researchers and their advantages and limitations mentioned. The earthquake of Boumerdes in 2003 has demonstrated the fragility of structures and total neglect of sismique design rules in the realization of old buildings. Significant damage and destruction of buildings caused by this earthquake are not due to the choice of type of material, but the design and the study does not congruent with seismic code requirements and bad quality of materials. For idealizing the failure of rules, a parametric study focuses on: low rate of reinforcements, type of reinforcement, resistance moderate of concrete. As an application the modeling strategy based on finite elements combined with a discretization of wall more solicited by successive thin layers. The estimated performance level achieved during a seismic action is obtained from capacity curves under incrementally increasing loads. Using a pushover analysis, a characteristic non linear force-displacement relationship can be determined. The results of numeric model are confronted with those of Algerian Para seismic Rules (RPA) in force have allowed the determination of profits in terms of displacement, shearing action, ductility.

Keywords: modeling, old building, pushover analysis, structural walls

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Authors: Sreto Boljevic

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In the absence of considerable investment in electricity generation, transmission and distribution network (DN) capacity, the demand for electrical energy will quickly strain the capacity of the existing electrical power network. With anticipated growth and proliferation of Electric vehicles (EVs) and Heat pump (HPs) identified the likelihood that the additional load from EV changing and the HPs operation will require capital investment in the DN. While an area-wide implementation of EVs and HPs will contribute to the decarbonization of the energy system, they represent new challenges for the existing low-voltage (LV) network. Distributed energy resources (DER), operating both as part of the DN and in the off-network mode, have been offered as a means to meet growing electricity demand while maintaining and ever-improving DN reliability, resiliency and power quality. DN planning has traditionally been done by forecasting future growth in demand and estimating peak load that the network should meet. However, new problems are arising. These problems are associated with a high degree of proliferation of EVs and HPs as load imposes on DN. In addition to that, the promotion of electricity generation from renewable energy sources (RES). High distributed generation (DG) penetration and a large increase in load proliferation at low-voltage DNs may have numerous impacts on DNs that create issues that include energy losses, voltage control, fault levels, reliability, resiliency and power quality. To mitigate negative impacts and at a same time enhance positive impacts regarding the new operational state of DN, CHP system integration can be seen as best action to postpone/reduce capital investment needed to facilitate promotion and maximize benefits of EVs, HPs and RES integration in low-voltage DN. The aim of this paper is to generate an algorithm by using an analytical approach. Algorithm implementation will provide a way for optimal placement of the CHP system in the DN in order to maximize the integration of RES and increase in proliferation of EVs and HPs.

Keywords: combined heat & power (CHP), distribution networks, EVs, HPs, RES

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Authors: Watchareeporn Chaimongkol

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In this paper, we compare the statistical measures accuracy of composite forecasting model to estimate automobile customer demand in Thailand. A modified simple exponential smoothing and autoregressive integrate moving average (ARIMA) forecasting model is built to estimate customer demand of passenger cars, instead of using information of historical sales data. Our model takes into account special characteristic of the Thai automobile market such as sales promotion, advertising and publicity, petrol price, and interest rate for loan. We evaluate our forecasting model by comparing forecasts with actual data using six accuracy measurements, mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), geometric mean absolute error (GMAE), symmetric mean absolute percentage error (sMAPE), mean absolute scaled error (MASE), median relative absolute error (MdRAE), and geometric mean relative absolute error (GMRAE).

Keywords: composite forecasting, simple exponential smoothing model, autoregressive integrate moving average model selection, accuracy measurements

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Authors: Fei Peng, Jun Yuan, Chen Fan, Fan Jiang, Qian Sun, Yudi Liu

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Although Earth Station in Motion (ESIM) services are widely used and there is a huge market demand around the world, International Telecommunication Union (ITU) does not have unified conclusion for the use of ESIM yet. ESIM are Mobile Satellite Services (MSS) due to its mobile-based attributes, while multiple administrations want to use ESIM in Fixed Satellite Service (FSS). However, Radio Regulations (RR) have strict distinction between MSS and FSS. In this case, ITU has been very controversial because this kind of application will violate the RR Article and the conflict will bring risks to the global deployment. Thus, this paper illustrates the development of rules, regulations, standards concerning ESIM and the radio spectrum usage of ESIM in different regions around the world. Firstly, the basic rules, standard and definition of ITU’s Radiocommunication Sector (ITU-R) is introduced. Secondly, the World Radiocommunication Conference (WRC) agenda item on radio spectrum allocation for ESIM, e.g. in C/Ku/Ka band, is introduced and multi-view on the radio spectrum allocation is elaborated, especially on 19.7-20.2 GHz & 29.5-30.0 GHz. Then, some ITU-R Recommendations and Reports are analyzed on the specific technique to enable these ESIM to communicate with Geostationary Earth Orbit Satellite (GSO) space stations in the FSS without causing interference at levels in excess of that caused by conventional FSS earth stations. Meanwhile, the opposite opinion on not allocating EISM service in FSS frequency band is also elaborated. Finally, based on the ESIM’s future application, the ITU-R standards development trend is forecasted. In conclusion, using radio spectrum resource in an equitable, rational and efficient manner is the basic guideline of ITU. Although it is not a good approach to obstruct the revise of RR when there is a large demand for radio spectrum resource in satellite industry, still the propulsion and global demand of the whole industry may face difficulties on the unclear application in modify rules of RR.

Keywords: earth station in motion, ITU standards, radio regulations, radio spectrum, satellite communication

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Authors: Eduardo Rodrigues, Gisela Mendes, José M. Torres, José E. Sousa

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In the sequence of the liberalisation of the electricity sector a progressive engagement of consumers has been considered and targeted by sector regulatory policies. With the objective of promoting market competition while protecting consumers interests, by transferring some of the upstream benefits to the end users while reaching a fair distribution of system costs, different market models to value consumers’ demand flexibility at the energy community level are envisioned. Local Energy and Flexibility Markets (LEFM) involve stakeholders interested in providing or procure local flexibility for community, services and markets’ value. Under the scope of DOMINOES, a European research project supported by Horizon 2020, the local market concept developed is expected to: • Enable consumers/prosumers empowerment, by allowing them to value their demand flexibility and Distributed Energy Resources (DER); • Value local liquid flexibility to support innovative distribution grid management, e.g., local balancing and congestion management, voltage control and grid restoration; • Ease the wholesale market uptake of DER, namely small-scale flexible loads aggregation as Virtual Power Plants (VPPs), facilitating Demand Response (DR) service provision; • Optimise the management and local sharing of Renewable Energy Sources (RES) in Medium Voltage (MV) and Low Voltage (LV) grids, trough energy transactions within an energy community; • Enhance the development of energy markets through innovative business models, compatible with ongoing policy developments, that promote the easy access of retailers and other service providers to the local markets, allowing them to take advantage of communities’ flexibility to optimise their portfolio and subsequently their participation in external markets. The general concept proposed foresees a flow of market actions, technical validations, subsequent deliveries of energy and/or flexibility and balance settlements. Since the market operation should be dynamic and capable of addressing different requests, either prioritising balancing and prosumer services or system’s operation, direct procurement of flexibility within the local market must also be considered. This paper aims to highlight the research on the definition of suitable DR models to be used by the Distribution System Operator (DSO), in case of technical needs, and by the retailer, mainly for portfolio optimisation and solve unbalances. The models to be proposed and implemented within relevant smart distribution grid and microgrid validation environments, are focused on day-ahead and intraday operation scenarios, for predictive management and near-real-time control respectively under the DSO’s perspective. At local level, the DSO will be able to procure flexibility in advance to tackle different grid constrains (e.g., demand peaks, forecasted voltage and current problems and maintenance works), or during the operating day-to-day, to answer unpredictable constraints (e.g., outages, frequency deviations and voltage problems). Due to the inherent risks of their active market participation retailers may resort to DR models to manage their portfolio, by optimising their market actions and solve unbalances. The interaction among the market actors involved in the DR activation and in flexibility exchange is explained by a set of sequence diagrams for the DR modes of use from the DSO and the energy provider perspectives. • DR for DSO’s predictive management – before the operating day; • DR for DSO’s real-time control – during the operating day; • DR for retailer’s day-ahead operation; • DR for retailer’s intraday operation.

Keywords: demand response, energy communities, flexible demand, local energy and flexibility markets

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Authors: Liang Cheng Chang, Wei Ju Huang, You Cheng Chen

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Investigation and research are keys for conjunctive use of surface and groundwater resources. The hydrogeological structure is an important base for groundwater analysis and simulation. Traditionally, the hydrogeological structure is artificially determined based on geological drill logs, the structure of wells, groundwater levels, and so on. In Taiwan, groundwater observation network has been built and a large amount of groundwater-level observation data are available. The groundwater level is the state variable of the groundwater system, which reflects the system response combining hydrogeological structure, groundwater injection, and extraction. This study applies analytical tools to the observation database to develop a methodology for the identification of confined and unconfined aquifers. These tools include frequency analysis, cross-correlation analysis between rainfall and groundwater level, groundwater regression curve analysis, and decision tree. The developed methodology is then applied to groundwater layer identification of two groundwater systems: Zhuoshui River alluvial fan and Pingtung Plain. The abovementioned frequency analysis uses Fourier Transform processing time-series groundwater level observation data and analyzing daily frequency amplitude of groundwater level caused by artificial groundwater extraction. The cross-correlation analysis between rainfall and groundwater level is used to obtain the groundwater replenishment time between infiltration and the peak groundwater level during wet seasons. The groundwater regression curve, the average rate of groundwater regression, is used to analyze the internal flux in the groundwater system and the flux caused by artificial behaviors. The decision tree uses the information obtained from the above mentioned analytical tools and optimizes the best estimation of the hydrogeological structure. The developed method reaches training accuracy of 92.31% and verification accuracy 93.75% on Zhuoshui River alluvial fan and training accuracy 95.55%, and verification accuracy 100% on Pingtung Plain. This extraordinary accuracy indicates that the developed methodology is a great tool for identifying hydrogeological structures.

Keywords: aquifer identification, decision tree, groundwater, Fourier transform

Procedia PDF Downloads 153

Authors: Saeedeh Imani Moqadam, Ilya Bobrov, Jérémy Epp, Nils Ellendt, Lutz Mädler

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High entropy alloys (HEAs), having adjustable properties and enhanced stability compared with intermetallic compounds, are solid solution alloys that contain more than five principal elements with almost equal atomic percentage. The concept of producing such alloys pave the way for developing advanced materials with unique properties. However, the synthesis of such alloys may require advanced processes with high cooling rates depending on which alloy elements are used. In this study, the micro spheres of different diameters of HEAs were generated via a drop-on-demand droplet generator and subsequently solidified during free-fall in an argon atmosphere. Such droplet generators can generate individual droplets with high reproducibility regarding droplet diameter, trajectory and cooling while avoiding any interparticle momentum or thermal coupling. Metallography as well as X-ray diffraction investigations for each diameter of the generated metallic droplets where then carried out to obtain information about the microstructural state. To calculate the cooling rate of the droplets, a droplet cooling model was developed and validated using model alloys such as CuSn%6 and AlCu%4.5 for which a correlation of secondary dendrite arm spacing (SDAS) and cooling rate is well-known. Droplets were generated from these alloys and their SDAS was determined using quantitative metallography. The cooling rate was then determined from the SDAS and used to validate the cooling rates obtained from the droplet cooling model. The application of that model on the HEA then leads to the cooling rate dependency and hence to the identification of process windows for the synthesis of these alloys. These process windows were then compared with cooling rates obtained in processes such as powder production, spray forming, selective laser melting and casting to predict if a synthesis is possible with these processes.

Keywords: cooling rate, drop-on-demand, high entropy alloys, microstructure, single droplet generation, X-ray Diffractometry

Procedia PDF Downloads 207

Authors: Evangelos Kaisar, Anika Tabassum, Taraneh Ardalan, Majed Al-Ghandour

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The economy of any country is dependent on its ability to accommodate the movement and delivery of goods. The demand for goods movement and services increases truck traffic on highways and inside the cities. The livability of most cities is directly affected by the congestion and environmental impacts of trucks, which are the backbone of the urban freight system. Better operation of heavy vehicles on highways and arterials could lead to the network’s efficiency and reliability. In many cases, roundabouts can respond better than at-level intersections to enable traffic operations with increased safety for both cars and heavy vehicles. Recently emerged, the concept of turbo-roundabout is a viable alternative to the two-lane roundabout aiming to improve traffic efficiency. The primary objective of this study is to evaluate the operation and performance level of an at-grade intersection, a conventional two-lane roundabout, and a basic turbo roundabout for freight movements. To analyze and evaluate the performances of the signalized intersections and the roundabouts, micro simulation models were developed PTV VISSIM. The networks chosen for this analysis in this study are to experiment and evaluate changes in the performance of the movement of vehicles with different geometric and flow scenarios. There are several scenarios that were examined when attempting to assess the impacts of various geometric designs on vehicle movements. The overall traffic efficiency depends on the geometric layout of the intersections, which consists of traffic congestion rate, hourly volume, frequency of heavy vehicles, type of road, and the ratio of major-street versus side-street traffic. The traffic performance was determined by evaluating the delay time, number of stops, and queue length of each intersection for varying truck percentages. The results indicate that turbo-roundabouts can replace signalized intersections and two-lane roundabouts only when the traffic demand is low, even with high truck volume. More specifically, it is clear that two-lane roundabouts are seen to have shorter queue lengths compared to signalized intersections and turbo-roundabouts. For instance, considering the scenario where the volume is highest, and the truck movement and left turn movement are maximum, the signalized intersection has 3 times, and the turbo-roundabout has 5 times longer queue length than a two-lane roundabout in major roads. Similarly, on minor roads, signalized intersections and turbo-roundabouts have 11 times longer queue lengths than two-lane roundabouts for the same scenario. As explained from all the developed scenarios, while the traffic demand lowers, the queue lengths of turbo-roundabouts shorten. This proves that turbo roundabouts perform well for low and medium traffic demand. The results indicate that turbo-roundabouts can replace signalized intersections and two-lane roundabouts only when the traffic demand is low, even with high truck volume. Finally, this study provides recommendations on the conditions under which different intersections perform better than each other.

Keywords: At-grade intersection, simulation, turbo-roundabout, two-lane roundabout

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Authors: Saad Roustom, Hajo Ribberink

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In most cities in the world, traffic has increased strongly over the last decades, causing high levels of congestion and deteriorating inner-city air quality. This study analyzes the impact of connected and automated vehicles (CAVs) on traffic performance and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions under different CAV penetration rates in mixed fleet environments of CAVs and driver-operated vehicles (DOVs) and under three different traffic demand levels. Utilizing meso-scale traffic simulations of the City of Ottawa, Canada, the research evaluates the traffic performance of three distinct CAV driving behaviors—Cautious, Normal, and Aggressive—at penetration rates of 25%, 50%, 75%, and 100%, across three different traffic demand levels. The study employs advanced correlation models to estimate GHG emissions. The results reveal that Aggressive and Normal CAVs generally reduce traffic congestion and GHG emissions, with their benefits being more pronounced at higher penetration rates (50% to 100%) and elevated traffic demand levels. On the other hand, Cautious CAVs exhibit an increase in both traffic congestion and GHG emissions. However, results also show deteriorated traffic flow conditions when introducing 25% penetration rates of any type of CAVs. Aggressive CAVs outperform all other driving at improving traffic flow conditions and reducing GHG emissions. The findings of this study highlight the crucial role CAVs can play in enhancing urban traffic performance and mitigating the adverse impact of transportation on the environment. This research advocates for the adoption of effective CAV-related policies by regulatory bodies to optimize traffic flow and reduce GHG emissions. By providing insights into the impact of CAVs, this study aims to inform strategic decision-making and stimulate the development of sustainable urban mobility solutions.

Keywords: connected and automated vehicles, congestion, GHG emissions, mixed fleet environment, traffic performance, traffic simulations

Procedia PDF Downloads 84

Authors: Geng Cui, Naoto Imura, Katsuhiro Nishinari, Takahiro Ezaki

Abstract:

The bullwhip effect, which refers to the amplification of demand variance as one moves up the supply chain, has been observed in various industries and extensively studied through analytic approaches. Existing methods to mitigate the bullwhip effect, such as decentralized demand information, vendor-managed inventory, and the Collaborative Planning, Forecasting, and Replenishment System, rely on the willingness and ability of supply chain participants to share their information. However, in practice, information sharing is often difficult to realize due to privacy concerns. The purpose of this study is to explore new ways to mitigate the bullwhip effect without the need for information sharing. This paper proposes a 'bullwhip absorption strategy' (BAS) to alleviate the bullwhip effect by absorbing it downstream in the supply chain. To achieve this, a two-stage supply chain system was employed, consisting of a single retailer and a single manufacturer. In each time period, the retailer receives an order generated according to an autoregressive process. Upon receiving the order, the retailer depletes the ordered amount, forecasts future demand based on past records, and places an order with the manufacturer using the order-up-to replenishment policy. The manufacturer follows a similar process. In essence, the mechanism of the model is similar to that of the beer game. The BAS is implemented at the retailer's level to counteract the bullwhip effect. This strategy requires the retailer to reduce the uncertainty in its orders, thereby absorbing the bullwhip effect downstream in the supply chain. The advantage of the BAS is that upstream participants can benefit from a reduced bullwhip effect. Although the retailer may incur additional costs, if the gain in the upstream segment can compensate for the retailer's loss, the entire supply chain will be better off. Two indicators, order variance and inventory variance, were used to quantify the bullwhip effect in relation to the strength of absorption. It was found that implementing the BAS at the retailer's level results in a reduction in both the retailer's and the manufacturer's order variances. However, when examining the impact on inventory variances, a trade-off relationship was observed. The manufacturer's inventory variance monotonically decreases with an increase in absorption strength, while the retailer's inventory variance does not always decrease as the absorption strength grows. This is especially true when the autoregression coefficient has a high value, causing the retailer's inventory variance to become a monotonically increasing function of the absorption strength. Finally, numerical simulations were conducted for verification, and the results were consistent with our theoretical analysis.

Keywords: bullwhip effect, supply chain management, inventory management, demand forecasting, order-to-up policy

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Authors: Laabassi Ayache, Boudehane Asma

Abstract:

Macrophyte pond has developed strongly in the field of wastewater treatment for irrigation in rural areas and small communities. Their association allows, in some cases, to increase the hydraulic capacity while maintaining the highest level of quality. The present work is devoted to the treatment of domestic wastewater under climatic conditions of Algeria (semi-arid) through a system using two tanks planted with Salvinia natans. The performance study and treatment efficiency of the system overall shows that the latter provides a significant removal of nitrogen pollution: total Kjeldahl nitrogen NTK (85.2%), Ammonium NH₄⁺-N (79%), Nitrite NO₂⁻-N (40%) also, a major meaningful reduction of biochemical oxygen demand BOD₅ was observed at the output of the system (96.9 %). As BOD₅, the chemical oxygen demand (COD) removal was higher than 95% at the exit of the two tanks. A moderately low yield of phosphate-phosphorus (PO₄³-P) was achieved with values not exceeding 37%. In general, the quality of treated effluent meets the Algerian standard of discharge and which allows us to select a suitable species in constructed wetland treatment systems under semi-arid climate.

Keywords: nutrient removal, Salvinia natans, semi-arid climate, wastewater treatment

Procedia PDF Downloads 149

Authors: Adeyemi A. Ajisebiolola

Abstract:

This study examined people’s responses to demand and consumption of herbal medicines in Nigeria. It also assessed people’s evaluation of the effectiveness of the existing medicines on the treatment of ailments and encouraging forest products utilization for greener future in terms of healthcare delivery. Two Local Government Areas, namely Ido and Ibadan Northwest were adopted for the study; Ido is characterized by rural populace and Ibadan Northwest by urban populace. Out of 500 questionnaires randomly administered to the households in the two local government areas of study, 481 (96.2%) were recovered. Statistical analysis employed showed that people were beginning to understand the importance of herbal medicines in Nigeria as majority of the households use herbal medicines to treat various ailments. Among the major problems encountered by the respondents are lack of precise dosage and adequate preservation methods. It was recommended that Forestry Research Institutes in Nigeria should be deeply involved in the findings on medicinal plants, package them into products and make them available to the society for sustainable healthcare management and greener future of the nation.

Keywords: demand and consumption, forest products, herbal medicines, Nigeria

Procedia PDF Downloads 125