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Authors: Sahar Yousef, Chantelle Niblock, Gul Kacmaz

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Salt City, in the context of Jordan’s heritage landscape, is a significant case to explore when it comes to the interaction between tangible and intangible qualities of liveable cities. Most city centers, including Jerash, Salt, Irbid, and Amman, are historical locations. Six of these extraordinary sites were designated UNESCO World Heritage Sites. Jordan is widely acknowledged as a developing country characterized by swift urbanization and unrestrained expansion that exacerbate the challenges associated with the preservation of historic urban areas. The aim of this study is to conduct an examination and analysis of the existing condition of heritage connectivity within heritage city centers. This includes outdoor staircases, pedestrian pathways, footpaths, and other public spaces. Case study-style analysis of the urban core of As-Salt is the focus of this investigation. Salt City is widely acknowledged for its substantial tangible and intangible cultural heritage and has been designated as ‘The Place of Tolerance and Urban Hospitality’ by UNESCO since 2021. Liveability in urban heritage, particularly in historic city centers, incorporates several factors that affect our well-being; its enhancement is a critical issue in contemporary society. The dynamic interaction between humans and historical materials, which serves as a vehicle for the expression of their identity and historical narrative, constitutes preservation that transcends simple conservation. This form of engagement enables people to appreciate the diversity of their heritage recognising their previous and planned futures. Heritage preservation is inextricably linked to a larger physical and emotional context; therefore, it is difficult to examine it in isolation. Urban environments, including roads, structures, and other infrastructure, are undergoing unprecedented physical design and construction requirements. Concurrently, heritage reinforces a sense of affiliation with a particular location or space and unifies individuals with their ancestry, thereby defining their identity. However, a considerable body of research has focused on the conservation of heritage buildings in a fragmented manner without considering their integration within a holistic urban context. Insufficient attention is given to the significance of the physical and social roles played by the heritage staircases and baths that serve as connectors between these valued historical buildings. In doing so, the research uses a methodology that is based on consensus. Given that liveability is considered a complex matter with several dimensions. The discussion starts by making initial observations on the physical context and societal norms inside the urban center while simultaneously establishing the definitions of liveability and connectivity and examining the key criteria associated with these concepts. Then, identify the key elements that contribute to liveable connectivity within the framework of urban heritage in Jordanian city centers. Some of the outcomes that will be discussed in the presentation are: (1) There is not enough connectivity between heritage buildings as can be seen, for example, between buildings in Jada and Qala'. (2) Most of the outdoor spaces suffer from physical issues that hinder their use by the public, like in Salalem. (3) Existing activities in the city center are not well attended because of lack of communication between the organisers and the citizens.

Keywords: connectivity, Jordan, liveability, salt city, tangible and intangible heritage, urban heritage

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Authors: Margarida Soares, Zlatina Genisheva, Lucas Nascimento, André Ribeiro, Tiago Miranda, Eduardo Pereira, Joana Carvalho

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In the current global context, we face a significant challenge: the rapid population increase combined with the pressing need for sustainable management of agro-industrial waste. Beyond understanding how population growth impacts waste generation, it is essential to first identify the primary types of waste produced and the countries responsible to guide targeted actions. This study presents key statistical data on waste production from the agriculture, forestry, and fishing sectors across the European Union, alongside information on the agricultural areas dedicated to crop production in each European Union country. These insights will form the basis for future research into waste production by crop type and country to improve waste management practices and promote recovery methods that are vital for environmental sustainability. The agricultural sector must stay at the forefront of scientific and technological advancements to meet climate change challenges, protect the environment, and ensure food and health security. The study's findings indicate that population growth significantly increases pressure on natural resources, leading to a rise in agro-industrial waste production. EUROSTAT data shows that, in 2020, the agriculture, forestry, and fishing sectors produced over 21 million tons of waste. Spain emerged as the largest producer, contributing nearly 30% of the EU's total waste in these sectors. Furthermore, five countries—Spain, the Netherlands, France, Sweden, and Germany—were responsible for producing more than two-thirds of the waste from these sectors. Regarding agricultural land use, the data for 2020 revealed that around two-thirds of the total agricultural area was concentrated in six countries: France, Spain, Germany, Poland, Romania, and Italy. Regarding waste production per capita, the Netherlands had the highest figures in the EU for 2020. The data presented in this study highlights the urgent need for action in managing agricultural waste in the EU. As population growth continues to drive up demand for agricultural products, waste generation will inevitably rise unless significant changes are made in managing of agro-industrial waste. The countries must lead the way in adopting technological waste management strategies that focus on reducing, reusing, and recycling waste to benefit both the environment and society. Equally important is the need to promote collaborative efforts between governments, industries, and research institutions to develop and implement technologies that transform waste into valuable resources. The insights from this study are critical for informing future strategies to improve the management and valorization of waste from the agro-industrial sector. One of the most promising approaches is adopting circular economy principles to create closed-loop systems that minimize environmental impacts. By rethinking waste as a valuable resource rather than a by-product, agricultural industries can contribute to more sustainable practices that support both environmental health and economic growth.

Keywords: agricultural area, agricultural waste, circular economy, environmental challenges, population growth

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Authors: Sara Saboonian, Pierre Filion

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The dispersed-suburban model has been the dominant one across North America for the past seventy years, characterized by automobile reliance, low density, and land-use specialization. Two planning models have emerged as possible alternatives to address the ills inflicted by this development pattern. First, there is intensification, which promotes efficient infrastructure by connecting high-density, multi-functional, and walkable nodes with public transit services within the suburban landscape. Second is green infrastructure, which provides environmental health and human well-being by preserving and restoring ecosystem services. This research studies incompatibilities and the possibility of amalgamating the two alternatives in an attempt to develop a comprehensive alternative to suburban model that advocates density, multi-functionality and transit- and pedestrian-conduciveness, with measures capable of mitigating the adverse environmental impacts of compactness. The research investigates three Canadian urban growth centers, where intensification is the current planning practice, and the awareness of green infrastructure benefits is on the rise. However, these three centers are contrasted by their development stage, the presence or absence of protected natural land, their environmental approach, and their adverse environmental consequences according to the planning cannons of different periods. The methods include reviewing the literature on green infrastructure planning, criticizing the Ontario provincial plans for intensification, surveying residents’ preferences for alternative models, and interviewing officials who deal with the local planning for the centers. Moreover, the research draws on recalling debates between New Urbanism and Landscape/Ecological Urbanism. The case studies expose the difficulties in creating urban growth centres that accommodate green infrastructure while adhering to intensification principles. First, the dominant status of intensification and the obstacles confronting intensification have monopolized the planners’ concerns. Second, the tension between green infrastructure and intensification explains the absence of the green infrastructure typologies that correspond to intensification-compatible forms and dynamics. Finally, the lack of highlighted social-economic benefits of green infrastructure reduces residents’ participation. Moreover, the results from the research provide insight into predominating urbanization theories, New Urbanism and Landscape/Ecological Urbanism. In order to understand political, planning, and ecological dynamics of such blending, dexterous context-specific planning is required. Findings suggest the influence of the following factors on amalgamating intensification and green infrastructure. Initially, producing ecosystem services-based justifications for green infrastructure development in the intensification context provides an expert-driven backbone for the implementation programs. This knowledge-base should be translated to effectively imbue different urban stakeholders. Moreover, due to the limited greenfields in intensified areas, spatial distribution and development of multi-level corridors such as pedestrian-hospitable settings and transportation networks along green infrastructure measures are required. Finally, to ensure the long-term integrity of implemented green infrastructure measures, significant investment in public engagement and education, as well as clarification of management responsibilities is essential.

Keywords: ecosystem services, green infrastructure, intensification, planning

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Authors: Felix Darko-Amoah, Daniel Acquah

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In contemporary ecosystems for developing countries like Ghana, the need to explore innovative solutions for sustainable livelihoods of farmers is more important than ever. With Ghana’s population growing steadily and the demand for food, fiber and shelter increasing, it is imperative that the construction industry and agriculture come together to address the challenges faced by farmers in the country. In order to enhance the livelihoods of cocoa farmers in Ghana, this paper provides an innovative strategy that aims to integrate the areas of civil engineering and cash crop agriculture. This study focuses on cocoa cultivation in poorer nations, where farmers confront a variety of difficulties include restricted access to financing, subpar infrastructure, and insufficient support services. We seek to improve farmers' access to financing, improve infrastructure, and provide support services that are essential to their success by combining the fields of building engineering and cocoa production. The findings of the study are beneficial to cocoa producers, community extension agents, and construction engineers. In order to accomplish our objectives, we conducted 307 of field investigations in particular cocoa growing communities in the Western Region of Ghana. Several studies have shown that there is a lack of adequate infrastructure and financing, leading to low yields, subpar beans, and low farmer profitability in developing nations like Ghana. Our goal is to give farmers access to better infrastructure, better financing, and support services that are crucial to their success through the fusion of construction engineering and cocoa production. Based on data gathered from the field investigations, the results show that the employment of appropriate technology and methods for developing structures, roads, and other infrastructure in rural regions is one of the essential components of this strategy. For instance, we find that using affordable, environmentally friendly materials like bamboo, rammed earth, and mud bricks can assist to cut expenditures while also protecting the environment. By applying simple relational techniques to the data gathered, the results also show that construction engineers are crucial in planning and building infrastructure that is appropriate for the local environment and circumstances and resilient to natural disasters like floods. Thus, the convergence of construction engineering and cash crop cultivation is another crucial component of the agriculture-construction interplay. For instance, farmers can receive financial assistance to buy essential inputs, such as seeds, fertilizer, and tools, as well as training in proper farming methods. Moreover, extension services can be offered to assist farmers in marketing their crops and enhancing their livelihoods and revenue. In conclusion, our analysis of responses from the 307 participants depicts that the combination of construction engineering and cash crop agriculture offers an innovative approach to improving farmers' livelihoods in cocoa farming communities in Ghana. In conclusion, by inculcating the findings of this study into core decision-making, policymakers can help farmers build sustainable and profitable livelihoods by addressing challenges such as limited access to financing, poor infrastructure, and inadequate support services.

Keywords: cocoa agriculture, construction engineering, farm buildings and equipment, improved livelihoods of farmers

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Authors: Felix Lankester, Alicia Davis, Safari Kinung'hi, Catherine Bunga, Shayo Alkara, Imam Mzimbiri, Jonathan Yoder, Sarah Cleaveland, Guy H. Palmer

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Achieving the London Declaration goal of a 90% reduction in neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) by 2030 requires cost-effective strategies that attain high and comprehensive coverage. The first objective of this trial was to assess the impact on cost and coverage of employing a novel integrative One Health approach linking two NTD control programs: mass drug administration (MDA) for soil-transmitted helminths in humans (STH) and mass dog rabies vaccination (MDRV). The second objective was to compare the coverage achieved by the MDA, a community-wide deworming intervention, with that of the existing national primary school-based deworming program (NSDP), with particular focus on the proportion of primary school-age children reached and their school enrolment status. Our approach was unconventional because, in line with the One Health approach to disease control, it coupled the responsibilities and resources of the Ministries responsible for human and animal health into one program with the shared aim of preventing multiple NTDs. The trial was carried out in hard-to-reach pastoral communities comprising 24 villages of the Ngorongoro District, Tanzania, randomly allocated to either Arm A (MDA and MDRV), Arm B (MDA only) or Arm C (MDRV only). Objective one: The percentage of people in each target village that received treatment through MDA in Arms A and B was 63% and 65%, respectively (χ2 = 1, p = 0.32). The percentage of dogs vaccinated in Arm A and C was 70% and 81%, respectively (χ2 =9, p = 0.003). It took 33% less time for a single person and a dog to attend the integrated delivery than two separate events. Cost per dose (including delivery) was lower under the integrated strategy, with delivery of deworming and rabies vaccination reduced by $0.13 (54%) and $0.85 (19%) per dose, respectively. Despite a slight reduction in the proportion of village dogs vaccinated in the integrated event, both the integrated and non-integrated strategies achieved the target threshold of 70% required to eliminate rabies. Objective two: The percentages of primary school age children enrolled in school that was reached by this trial (73%) and the existing NSDP (80%) were not significantly different (F = 0.9, p = 0.36). However, of the primary school age children treated in this trial, 46% were not enrolled in school. Furthermore, 86% of the people treated would have been outside the reach of the NSDP because they were not primary school age or were primary school age children not enrolled in school. The comparable reach, the substantial reductions in cost per dose delivered and the decrease in participants’ time support this integrated One Health approach to control multiple NTDs. Further, the recorded level of non-enrolment at primary school suggests that, in remote areas, school-based delivery strategies could miss a large fraction of school-age children and that programs that focus delivery solely at the level of the primary school will miss a substantial proportion of both primary school age children as well as other individuals from the community. We have shown that these populations can be effectively reached through extramural programs.

Keywords: canine mediated human rabies, integrated health interventions, mass drug administration, neglected tropical disease, One Health, soil-transmitted helminths

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Authors: Jan Van Uden

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The paper reviews classical agency-theory and its contributions to the analysis of complex business negotiations and gives an approach for the modification of the basic agency-model in order to examine the negotiation specific dimensions of agency-problems. By illustrating fundamental potentials for the modification of agency-theory in context of business negotiations the paper highlights recent empirical research that investigates agent-based negotiations and inter-team constellations. A general theoretical analysis of complex negotiation would be based on a two-level approach. First, the modification of the basic agency-model in order to illustrate the organizational context of business negotiations (i.e., multi-agent issues, common-agencies, multi-period models and the concept of bounded rationality). Second, the application of the modified agency-model on complex business negotiations to identify agency-problems and relating areas of risk in the negotiation process. The paper is placed on the first level of analysis – the modification. The method builds on the one hand on insights from behavior decision research (BRD) and on the other hand on findings from agency-theory as normative directives to the modification of the basic model. Through neoclassical assumptions concerning the fundamental aspects of agency-relationships in business negotiations (i.e., asymmetric information, self-interest, risk preferences and conflict of interests), agency-theory helps to draw solutions on stated worst-case-scenarios taken from the daily negotiation routine. As agency-theory is the only universal approach able to identify trade-offs between certain aspects of economic cooperation, insights obtained provide a deeper understanding of the forces that shape business negotiation complexity. The need for a modification of the basic model is illustrated by highlighting selected issues of business negotiations from agency-theory perspective: Negotiation Teams require a multi-agent approach under the condition that often decision-makers as superior-agents are part of the team. The diversity of competences and decision-making authority is a phenomenon that overrides the assumptions of classical agency-theory and varies greatly in context of certain forms of business negotiations. Further, the basic model is bound to dyadic relationships preceded by the delegation of decision-making authority and builds on a contractual created (vertical) hierarchy. As a result, horizontal dynamics within the negotiation team playing an important role for negotiation success are therefore not considered in the investigation of agency-problems. Also, the trade-off between short-term relationships within the negotiation sphere and the long-term relationships of the corporate sphere calls for a multi-period perspective taking into account the sphere-specific governance-mechanisms already established (i.e., reward and monitoring systems). Within the analysis, the implementation of bounded rationality is closely related to findings from BRD to assess the impact of negotiation behavior on underlying principal-agent-relationships. As empirical findings show, the disclosure and reservation of information to the agent affect his negotiation behavior as well as final negotiation outcomes. Last, in context of business negotiations, asymmetric information is often intended by decision-makers acting as superior-agents or principals which calls for a bilateral risk-approach to agency-relations.

Keywords: business negotiations, agency-theory, negotiation analysis, interteam negotiations

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Authors: Payam Mousavi, Andrew L. Stewart, Huiwen You, Aryeh F. G. Fayerman

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We present a decision-support tool to assist an operator in the detection and tracking of a suspect vehicle traveling to an unknown target destination. Multiple data sources, such as traffic cameras, traffic information, weather, etc., are integrated and processed in real-time to infer a suspect’s intended destination chosen from a list of pre-determined high-value targets. Previously, we presented our work in the detection and tracking of vehicles using traffic and airborne cameras. Here, we focus on the fusion and processing of that information to predict a suspect’s behavior. The network of cameras is represented by a directional graph, where the edges correspond to direct road connections between the nodes and the edge weights are proportional to the average time it takes to travel from one node to another. For our experiments, we construct our graph based on the greater Los Angeles subset of the Caltrans’s “Performance Measurement System” (PeMS) dataset. We propose a Bayesian approach where a posterior probability for each target is continuously updated based on detections of the suspect in the live video feeds. Additionally, we introduce the concept of ‘soft interventions’, inspired by the field of Causal Inference. Soft interventions are herein defined as interventions that do not immediately interfere with the suspect’s movements; rather, a soft intervention may induce the suspect into making a new decision, ultimately making their intent more transparent. For example, a soft intervention could be temporarily closing a road a few blocks from the suspect’s current location, which may require the suspect to change their current course. The objective of these interventions is to gain the maximum amount of information about the suspect’s intent in the shortest possible time. Our system currently operates in a human-on-the-loop mode where at each step, a set of recommendations are presented to the operator to aid in decision-making. In principle, the system could operate autonomously, only prompting the operator for critical decisions, allowing the system to significantly scale up to larger areas and multiple suspects. Once the intended target is identified with sufficient confidence, the vehicle is reported to the authorities to take further action. Other recommendations include a selection of road closures, i.e., soft interventions, or to continue monitoring. We evaluate the performance of the proposed system using simulated scenarios where the suspect, starting at random locations, takes a noisy shortest path to their intended target. In all scenarios, the suspect’s intended target is unknown to our system. The decision thresholds are selected to maximize the chances of determining the suspect’s intended target in the minimum amount of time and with the smallest number of interventions. We conclude by discussing the limitations of our current approach to motivate a machine learning approach, based on reinforcement learning in order to relax some of the current limiting assumptions.

Keywords: autonomous surveillance, Bayesian reasoning, decision support, interventions, patterns of life, predictive analytics, predictive insights

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Authors: Sakshi Gupta, Kavita Sardana

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Management of a forest catchment involves diverse dimensions, multiple stakeholders, and conflicting interests, primarily due to the wide variety of valuable ecosystem services offered by it. Often, the coordination among different levels of formal institutions governing the catchment, local communities, as well as societal norms, taboos, customs and practices, happens to be amiss, leading to conflicting policy interventions which prove detrimental for such resources. In the case of Ala Catchment, which is a protected forest located at a distance of 9 km North-East of the town of Dalhousie, within district Chamba of Himachal Pradesh, India, and serves as one of the primary sources of public water supply for the downstream town of Dalhousie and nearby areas, several policy measures have been adopted for the restoration of the forest catchment, as well as for the improvement of public water supply. These catchment forest restoration measures include; the installation of a fence along the perimeter of the catchment, plantation of trees in the empty patches of the forest, construction of check dams, contour trenches, contour bunds, issuance of grazing permits, and installation of check posts to keep track of trespassers. While the measures adopted to address the acute shortage of public water supply in the Dalhousie region include; building and maintenance of large capacity water storage tanks, laying of pipelines, expanding public water distribution infrastructure to include water sources other than Ala Catchment Forest and introducing of five new water supply schemes for drinking water as well as irrigation. However, despite these policy measures, the degradation of the Ala catchment and acute shortage of water supply continue to distress the region. This study attempts to conduct an institutional analysis to assess the impact of policy measures for the restoration of the Ala Catchment in the Chamba district of Himachal Pradesh in India. For this purpose, the theoretical framework of Ostrom’s Institutional Assessment and Development (IAD) Framework was used. Snowball sampling was used to conduct private interviews and focused group discussions. A semi-structured questionnaire was administered to interview a total of 184 respondents across stakeholders from both formal and informal institutions. The central hypothesis of the study is that the interplay of formal and informal institutions facilitates the implementation of policy measures for ameliorating Ala Catchment, in turn improving the livelihood of people depending on this forest catchment for direct and indirect benefits. The findings of the study suggest that leakages in the successful implementation of policy measures occur at several nodes of decision-making, which adversely impact the catchment and the ecosystem services provided by it. Some of the key reasons diagnosed by the immediate analysis include; ad-hoc assignment of property rights, rise in tourist inflow increasing the pressures on water demand, illegal trespassing by local and nomadic pastoral communities for grazing and unlawful extraction of forest products, and rent-seeking by a few influential formal institutions. Consequently, it is indicated that the interplay of formal and informal institutions may be obscuring the consequentiality of the policy measures on the restoration of the catchment.

Keywords: catchment forest restoration, institutional analysis and development framework, institutional interplay, protected forest, water supply management

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Authors: Byron Baron

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Typical of the Mediterranean region, the Maltese islands exhibit calcareous soils containing low organic carbon content and high salinity, in addition to being relatively shallow. This has lead to the common practice of applying copious amounts of artificial fertilisers as well as other chemical inputs, together with the use of ground water having high salinity. Such intensive agricultural activities, over a prolonged time period, on such land has lead further to the loss of any soil fertility, together with direct negative impacts on the quality of fresh water reserves and the local ecosystem. The aim of this study was to investigate whether the natural resources on the island would be sufficient to apply ecological intensification i.e. the use of natural processes to replace anthropological inputs without any significant loss in food production. This was implementing through a sustainable agricultural system based on permaculture practices. Ecological intensification following permaculture principles was implemented for two years in order to capture the seasonal changes in duplicate. The areas dedicated to wild plants were only trimmed back to avoid excessive seeding but never mowing. A number of local staple crops were grown throughout this period, also in duplicate. Concomitantly, a number of practices were implemented following permaculture principles such as reducing land tilling, applying only natural fertiliser, mulching, monitoring of soil parameters using sensors, no use of herbicides or pesticides, and precision irrigation linked to a desalination system. Numerous environmental parameters were measured at regular intervals so as to quantify any improvements in ecological conditions. Crop output was also measured as kilos of produce per area. The results clearly show that over the two year period, the variety of wild plant species increased, the number of visiting pollinators increased, there were no pest infestations (although an increase in the number of pests was observed), and a slight improvement in overall soil health was also observed. This was obviously limited by the short duration of the testing implementation. Dedicating slightly less than 15% of total land area to wild plants in the form of borders around plots of crops assisted pollination and provided a foraging area for gleaning bats (measured as an increased number of feeding buzzes) whilst not giving rise to any pest infestations and no apparent yield losses or ill effects to the crops. Observed increases in crop yields were not significant. The study concluded that with the right support for the initial establishment of a healthy ecosystem and controlled intervention, the available natural resources on the island can substantially improve the condition of the local agricultural land area, resulting is a more prolonged economical output with greater ecological sustainability. That being said, more comprehensive and long-term monitoring is required in order to fully validate these results and design a sustainable agriculture system that truly achieves the best outcome for the Maltese context.

Keywords: ecological intensification, soil health, sustainable agriculture, permaculture

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Authors: Syed Jamil H. Kazmi, Faiza Sarwar

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The Indus delta of Sindh Province forms the largest creeks zone of Pakistan. The Sindh coast starts from the mouth of Hab River and terminates at Sir Creek area. In this paper, we have considered the major creeks from the site of Bin Qasim Port in Karachi to Jetty of Keti Bunder in Thatta District. A general decline in the mangrove forest has been observed that within a span of last 25 years. The unprecedented human interventions damage the creeks habitat badly which includes haphazard urban development, industrial and sewage disposal, illegal cutting of mangroves forest, reduced and inconsistent fresh water flow mainly from Jhang and Indus rivers. These activities not only harm the creeks habitat but affected the fish stock substantially. Fishing is the main livelihood of coastal people but with the above-mentioned threats, it is also under enormous pressure by fish catches resulted in unchecked overutilization of the fish resources. This pressure is almost unbearable when it joins with deleterious fishing methods, uncontrolled fleet size, increase trash and by-catch of juvenile and illegal mesh size. Along with these anthropogenic interventions study area is under the red zone of tropical cyclones and active seismicity causing floods, sea intrusion, damage mangroves forests and devastation of fish stock. In order to sustain the natural resources of the Indus Creeks, this study was initiated with the support of FAO, WWF and NIO, the main purpose was to develop a Geo-Spatial dataset for fish stock assessment. The study has been spread over a year (2013-14) on monthly basis which mainly includes detailed fish stock survey, water analysis and few other environmental analyses. Environmental analysis also includes the habitat classification of study area which has done through remote sensing techniques for 22 years’ time series (1992-2014). Furthermore, out of 252 species collected, fifteen species from estuarine and marine groups were short-listed to measure the weight, health and growth of fish species at each creek under GIS data through SPSS system. Furthermore, habitat suitability analysis has been conducted by assessing the surface topographic and aspect derivation through different GIS techniques. The output variables then overlaid in GIS system to measure the creeks productivity. Which provided the results in terms of subsequent classes: extremely productive, highly productive, productive, moderately productive and less productive. This study has revealed the Geospatial tools utilization along with the evaluation of the fisheries resources and creeks habitat risk zone mapping. It has also been identified that the geo-spatial technologies are highly beneficial to identify the areas of high environmental risk in Sindh Creeks. This has been clearly discovered from this study that creeks with high rugosity are more productive than the creeks with low levels of rugosity. The study area has the immense potential to boost the economy of Pakistan in terms of fish export, if geo-spatial techniques are implemented instead of conventional techniques.

Keywords: fish stock, geo-spatial, productivity analysis, risk

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Authors: Jennifer Buz, Alvin Spivey

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The most common greenhouse gas emitted through human activities, carbon dioxide (CO2), is naturally consumed by plants during photosynthesis. This process is actively being monetized by companies wishing to offset their carbon dioxide emissions. For example, companies are now able to purchase protections for vegetated land due-to-be clear cut or purchase barren land for reforestation. Therefore, by actively preventing the destruction/decay of plant matter or by introducing more plant matter (reforestation), a company can theoretically offset some of their emissions. One of the biggest issues in the carbon credit market is validating and verifying carbon offsets. There is a need for a system that can accurately and frequently ensure that the areas sold for carbon credits have the vegetation mass (and therefore for carbon offset capability) they claim. Traditional techniques for measuring vegetation mass and determining health are costly and require many person-hours. Orbital Sidekick offers an alternative approach that accurately quantifies carbon mass and assesses vegetation health through satellite hyperspectral imagery, a technique which enables us to remotely identify material composition (including plant species) and condition (e.g., health and growth stage). How much carbon a plant is capable of storing ultimately is tied to many factors, including material density (primarily species-dependent), plant size, and health (trees that are actively decaying are not effectively storing carbon). All of these factors are capable of being observed through satellite hyperspectral imagery. This abstract focuses on speciation. To build a species classification model, we matched pixels in our remote sensing imagery to plants on the ground for which we know the species. To accomplish this, we collaborated with the researchers at the Teakettle Experimental Forest. Our remote sensing data comes from our airborne “Kato” sensor, which flew over the study area and acquired hyperspectral imagery (400-2500 nm, 472 bands) at ~0.5 m/pixel resolution. Coverage of the entire teakettle experimental forest required capturing dozens of individual hyperspectral images. In order to combine these images into a mosaic, we accounted for potential variations of atmospheric conditions throughout the data collection. To do this, we ran an open source atmospheric correction routine called ISOFIT1 (Imaging Spectrometer Optiman FITting), which converted all of our remote sensing data from radiance to reflectance. A database of reflectance spectra for each of the tree species within the study area was acquired using the Teakettle stem map and the geo-referenced hyperspectral images. We found that a wide variety of machine learning classifiers were able to identify the species within our images with high (>95%) accuracy. For the most robust quantification of carbon mass and the best assessment of the health of a vegetated area, speciation is critical. Through the use of high resolution hyperspectral data, ground-truth databases, and complex analytical techniques, we are able to determine the species present within a pixel to a high degree of accuracy. These species identifications will feed directly into our carbon mass model.

Keywords: hyperspectral, satellite, carbon, imagery, python, machine learning, speciation

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Authors: Shlomit Paz, Meir Broza

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Cholera is an acute intestinal infection caused by ingestion of food or water contaminated with the bacterium Vibrio cholerae. It has a short incubation period and produces an enterotoxin that causes copious, painless, watery diarrhoea that can quickly lead to severe dehydration and death if treatment is not promptly given. In an epidemic, the source of the contamination is usually the feces of an infected person. The disease can spread rapidly in areas with poor treatment of sewage and drinking water. Cholera remains a global threat and is one of the key indicators of social development. An estimated 3-5 million cases and over 100,000 deaths occur each year around the world. The relevance of climatic events as causative factors for cholera epidemics is well known. However, the examination of the involvement of winds in intra-continental disease distribution is new. The study explore the hypothesis that the spreading of cholera epidemics may be related to the dominant wind direction over land by presenting the influence of the wind direction on windborn dissemination by flying insects, which may serve as vectors. Chironomids ("non-biting midges“) exist in the majority of freshwater aquatic habitats, especially in estuarine and organic-rich water bodies typical to Vibrio cholerae. Chironomid adults emerge into the air for mating and dispersion. They are highly mobile, huge in number and found frequently in the air at various elevations. The huge number of chironomid egg masses attached to hard substrate on the water surface, serve as a reservoir for the free-living Vibrio bacteria. Both male and female, while emerging from the water, may carry the cholera bacteria. In experimental simulation, it was demonstrated that the cholera-bearing adult midges are carried by the wind, and transmit the bacteria from one body of water to another. In our previous study, the geographic diffusions of three cholera outbreaks were examined through their linkage with the wind direction: a) the progress of Vibrio cholerae O1 biotype El Tor in Africa during 1970–1971 and b) again in 2005–2006; and c) the rapid spread of Vibrio cholerae O139 over India during 1992–1993. Using data and map of cholera dissemination (WHO database) and mean monthly SLP and geopotential data (NOAA NCEP-NCAR database), analysis of air pressure data at sea level and at several altitudes over Africa, India and Bangladesh show a correspondence between the dominant wind direction and the intra-continental spread of cholera. The results support the hypothesis that aeroplankton (the tiny life forms that float in the air and that may be caught and carried upward by the wind, landing far from their origin) carry the cholera bacteria from one body of water to an adjacent one. In addition to these findings, the current follow-up study will present new results regarding the possible involvement of winds in the spreading of cholera in recent outbreaks (2010-2013). The findings may improve the understanding of how climatic factors are involved in the rapid distribution of new strains throughout a vast continental area. Awareness of the aerial transfer of Vibrio cholerae may assist health authorities by improving the prediction of the disease’s geographic dissemination.

Keywords: cholera, Vibrio cholerae, wind direction, Vibrio cholerae dissemination

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Authors: Biao Hu, Mark E. J. Cutler, Alexandra C. Morel

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Global climate change introduces both opportunities and challenges for crop productivity, with differences in temperature stress across latitudes and crop types, one of the most important meteorological factors impacting crop productivity. The development and productivity of crops are particularly impacted when temperatures occur outwith their preferred ranges, which has implications for global agri-food sector. This study investigated the spatiotemporal dynamics of heat stress and cold stress on UK arable lands for rapeseed cropping between 1961 and 2020, using a 1 km spatial resolution temperature dataset. Stress indices, including heat stress index (fHS) defined as the ratio of “Tmax - Tcrit_h” to “Tlimit_h - Tcrit_h” where Tmax, Tcrit_h and Tlimit_h represent the daily maximum temperature (°C), critical high temperature threshold (°C) and limiting high temperature threshold (°C) of rapeseed crop respectively; cold degree days (CDD) as the difference between daily Tmin (minimum temperature) and Tcrit_l (critical low temperature threshold); and a normalized rapeseed production loss index (fRPL) as the product of fHS and attainable rapeseed yield in the same land pixel were established. The values of fHS and CDD, percentages of days experiencing each stress and fRPL were investigated. Results found increasing fHS and the areas impacted by heat stress during flowering (from April to May) and reproductive (from April to July) stages over time, with the mean fHS being negatively correlated with latitude. This pattern of increased heat stress agrees with previous research on rapeseed cropping, which have been noted at global scale in response to changes in climate. The decreasing number of CDD and frequency of cold stress suggest cold stress decreased during flowering, vegetative (from September to March next year) and reproductive stages, and the magnitude of cold stress in the south of the UK was smaller to that compared to northern regions over the studied periods. The decreasing CDD matches observed declining cold stress of global rapeseed and of other crops such as rice in the northern hemisphere. Notably, compared with previous studies which mainly tracked the trends of heat stress and cold stress individually, this study conducted a comparative analysis of the rate of their changes and found heat stress of rapeseed crops in the UK was increasing at a faster rate than cold stress, which was seen to decrease during flowering. The increasing values of fRPL, with statistically significant differences (p < 0.05) between regions of the UK, suggested an increasing loss in rapeseed due to heat stress in the studied period. The largest increasing trend in heat stress was observed in South-eastern England, where a decreasing cold stress was taking place. While the present study observed a relatively slowly increasing heat stress, there is a worrying trend of increasing heat stress for rapeseed cropping into the future, as the cases of other main rapeseed cropping systems in the northern hemisphere including China, European counties, the US, and Canada. This study demonstrates the negative impact of global warming on rapeseed cropping, highlighting the adaptation and mitigations strategies for sustainable rapeseed cultivation across the globe.

Keywords: rapeseed, UK, heat stress, cold stress, global climate change, spatiotemporal analysis, production loss index

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Authors: O. Zlatkin-Troitschanskaia, J. Fischer, C. Lautenbach, H. A. Pant

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In 21st century higher education (HE), the diversity among students has increased in recent years due to the internationalization and higher mobility. Offering and providing equal and fair opportunities based on students’ individual skills and abilities instead of their social or cultural background is one of the major aims of HE. In this context, valid, objective and transparent assessments of students’ preconditions and academic competencies in HE are required. However, as analyses of the current states of research and practice show, a substantial research gap on assessment practices in HE still exists, calling for the development of effective solutions. These demands lead to significant conceptual and methodological challenges. Funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research, the research program 'Modeling and Measuring Competencies in Higher Education – Validation and Methodological Challenges' (KoKoHs) focusses on addressing these challenges in HE assessment practice by modeling and validating objective test instruments. Including 16 cross-university collaborative projects, the German-wide research program contributes to bridging the research gap in current assessment research and practice by concentrating on practical and policy-related challenges of assessment in HE. In this paper, we present a differentiated overview of existing assessments of HE at the national and international level. Based on the state of research, we describe the theoretical and conceptual framework of the KoKoHs Program as well as results of the validation studies, including their key outcomes. More precisely, this includes an insight into more than 40 developed assessments covering a broad range of transparent and objective methods for validly measuring domain-specific and generic knowledge and skills for five major study areas (Economics, Social Science, Teacher Education, Medicine and Psychology). Computer-, video- and simulation-based instruments have been applied and validated to measure over 20,000 students at the beginning, middle and end of their (bachelor and master) studies at more than 300 HE institutions throughout Germany or during their practical training phase, traineeship or occupation. Focussing on the validity of the assessments, all test instruments have been analyzed comprehensively, using a broad range of methods and observing the validity criteria of the Standards for Psychological and Educational Testing developed by the American Educational Research Association, the American Economic Association and the National Council on Measurement. The results of the developed assessments presented in this paper, provide valuable outcomes to predict students’ skills and abilities at the beginning and the end of their studies as well as their learning development and performance. This allows for a differentiated view of the diversity among students. Based on the given research results practical implications and recommendations are formulated. In particular, appropriate and effective learning opportunities for students can be created to support the learning development of students, promote their individual potential and reduce knowledge and skill gaps. Overall, the presented research on competency assessment is highly relevant to national and international HE practice.

Keywords: 21st century skills, academic competencies, innovative assessments, KoKoHs

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Authors: Awatef Ahmed Ben Ramadan, Aqsa Arshad

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Background: There is a huge Muslim migration movement to North America and Europe for several reasons, primarily refuge from war areas and partly to search for better work and educational chances. There are always concerns regarding first-Generation Immigrant women's health and computer literacy, an adequate understanding of the health systems, and the use of the existing healthcare technology and services effectively and efficiently. Language proficiency level, preference for cultural and traditional remedies, socioeconomic factors, fear of stereotyping, limited accessibility to health services, and general unfamiliarity with the existing health services and resources are familiar variables among these women. Aims: The current study aims to assess the health and digital literacy of first-generation Muslim women in Atlanta city. Also, the study aims to examine how the COVID-19 pandemic has encouraged the use of health information technology and increased technology awareness among the targeted women. Methods: The study design is cross-sectional correlational research. The study will be conducted to produce preliminary results that the investigators want to have to supplement an NIH grant application about leveraging information technology to reduce the health inequalities amongst the first-generation immigrant Muslim women in Atlanta City. The investigators will collect the study data in two phases using different tools. Phase one was conducted in June 2022; the investigators used tools to measure health and digital literacy amongst 42 first-generation immigrant Muslim women. Phase two was conducted in November 2022; the investigators measured the Knowledge, Attitude, and Practice (KAP) of using health information technology such as telehealth from a sample of 45 first-generation Muslim immigrant women in Atlanta; in addition, the investigators measured how the current pandemic has affected their KAP to use telemedicine and telehealth services. Both phases' study participants were recruited using convenience sampling methodology. The investigators collected around 40 of 18 years old or older first-generation Muslim immigrant women for both study phases. The study excluded Immigrants who hold work visas and second-generation immigrants. Results: At the point of submitting this abstract, the investigators are still analyzing the study data to produce preliminary results to apply for an NIH grant entitled "Leveraging Health Information Technology (Health IT) to Address and Reduce Health Care Disparities (R01 Clinical Trial Optional)". This research will be the first step of a comprehensive research project to assess and measure health and digital literacy amongst a vulnerable community group. The targeted group might have different points of view from the U.S.-born inhabitants on how to: promote their health, gain healthy lifestyles and habits, screen for diseases, adhere to health treatment and follow-up plans, perceive the importance of using available and affordable technology to communicate with their providers and improve their health, and help in making serious decisions for their health. The investigators aim to develop an educational and instructional health mobile application considering the language and cultural factors that affect immigrants' ability to access different health and social support sources, know their health rights and obligations in their communities, and improve their health behavior and behavior lifestyles.

Keywords: first-generation immigrant Muslim women, telehealth, COVID-19 pandemic, health information technology, health and digital literacy

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Authors: Peggy M. Randon, Lisa Randon

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Introduction: The post-COVID-19 era has presented unique challenges for addressing complex mental health issues, particularly due to exacerbated stress, increased social isolation, and disrupted continuity of care. This article outlines relevant health disparities and policy implications within the context of the United States while maintaining international relevance. Methods: A comprehensive literature review (including studies, reports, and policy documents) was conducted to examine concerns related to childhood-onset schizophrenia and the impact on patients and their families. Qualitative and quantitative data were synthesized to provide insights into the complex etiology of schizophrenia, the effects of the pandemic, and the challenges faced by socioeconomically disadvantaged populations. Case studies were employed to illustrate real-world examples and areas requiring policy reform. Results: Early intervention in childhood is crucial for preventing or mitigating the long-term impact of complex psychotic disorders, particularly schizophrenia. A comprehensive understanding of the genetic, environmental, and physiological factors contributing to the development of schizophrenia is essential. The COVID-19 pandemic worsened symptoms and disrupted treatment for many adolescent patients with schizophrenia, emphasizing the need for adaptive interventions and the utilization of virtual platforms. Health disparities, including stigma, financial constraints, and language or cultural barriers, further limit access to care, especially for socioeconomically disadvantaged populations. Policy implications: Current US health policies inadequately support patients with schizophrenia. The limited availability of longitudinal care, insufficient resources for families, and stigmatization represent ongoing policy challenges. Addressing these issues necessitates increased research funding, improved access to affordable treatment plans, and cultural competency training for healthcare providers. Public awareness campaigns are crucial to promote knowledge, awareness, and acceptance of mental health disorders. Conclusion: The unique challenges faced by children and families in the US affected by schizophrenia and other psychotic disorders have yet to be adequately addressed on institutional and systemic levels. The relevance of findings to an international audience is emphasized by examining the complex factors contributing to the onset of psychotic disorders and their global policy implications. The broad impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on mental health underscores the need for adaptive interventions and global responses. Addressing policy challenges, improving access to care, and reducing the stigma associated with mental health disorders are crucial steps toward enhancing the lives of adolescents and young adults with schizophrenia and their family members. The implementation of virtual platforms can help overcome barriers and ensure equitable access to support and resources for all patients, enabling them to lead healthy and fulfilling lives.

Keywords: childhood, schizophrenia, policy, United, States, health, disparities

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Authors: Dorothy Kagazi

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The African elephant (Loxodonta africana) remains one of the most crop-damaging species around Kibale National Park, western Uganda. Elephant crop raiding deprives communities of food and incomes, consequently impacting livelihoods, attitude, and support for conservation. It also attracts an aggressive reaction from local communities including the retaliatory killing of a species that is already endangered and listed under Appendix I of the Convention on Endangered Species of Flora and Fauna (CITES). In order to mitigate against elephant crop raiding and minimize conflict, a number of interventions were devised by the government of Uganda such as physical guarding, scare-shooting, excavation of trenches, growing of unpalatable crops and fire lighting all of which have over the years been implemented around the park. These generated varying degrees of effectiveness but largely never solved the problem of elephants crossing into communities to destroy food and shelter which had a negative effect onto sustainable tourism of the communities who often resorted to killing these animals and hence contributing the falling numbers of these animals. It was until government discovered that there are far more effective ways of deterring these animals from crossing to communities that it commissioned a study to deploy the African honeybee (Apis mellifera scutellata) as a deterrent against elephant crop raiding and income enhancement for local people around the park. These efforts led to a number of projects around Kibale National Park where communities were facilitated to keep bees for human-elephant conflict mitigation and rural income enhancement through the sale of honey. These projects have registered tremendous success in reducing crop damage, enhance rural incomes, influence positive attitude change and ultimately secure community support for elephant and park conservation which is a clear manifestation of sustainable tourism development in the area. To address the issue of sustainability, the project was aligned with four major objectives that contributed to the overall goal of maintaining the areas around the parks and the national park itself in such a manner that it remains viable over an infinite period. Among these included determining deterrence effects of bees against elephant crop raiding, assessing the contribution of beekeeping towards rural income enhancement, determining the impact of community involvement of park conservation and management among others. The project deployed 500 improved hives by placing them at specific and previously identified and mapped out elephant crossing points along the park boundary. A control site was established without any intervention to facilitate comparison of findings and data was collected on elephant raiding frequency, patterns, honey harvested, and community attitude towards the park. A socio-economic assessment was also undertaken to ascertain the contribution of beekeeping to incomes and attitude change. In conclusion, human-wildlife conflicts have disturbed conservation and sustainable tourism development efforts. Such success stories like the beekeeping strategy should hence be extensively discussed and widely shared as a conservation technique for sustainable tourism.

Keywords: bees, communities, conservation, elephants

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Authors: Zakia Fatima, Liu Lu, Donghao Li

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The analysis of biological fluid metabolites holds significant importance in various areas, such as medical research, food science, and public health. Investigating the levels and distribution of nutrients and their metabolites in biological samples allows researchers and healthcare professionals to determine nutritional status, find hypovitaminosis or hypervitaminosis, and monitor the effectiveness of interventions such as dietary supplementation. Moreover, analysis of nutrient metabolites provides insight into their metabolism, bioavailability, and physiological processes, aiding in the clarification of their health roles. Hence, the exploration of a distinct, efficient, eco-friendly, and simpler methodology is of great importance to evaluate the metabolic content of complex biological samples. In this work, a green and rapid analytical method based on an automated online two-dimensional microscale carbon fiber/activated carbon fiber fractionation system and time-of-flight mass spectrometry (2DμCFs-TOF-MS) was used to evaluate metabolites of urine samples after oral administration of food supplements. The automated 2DμCFs instrument consisted of a microcolumn system with bare carbon fibers and modified carbon fiber coatings. Carbon fibers and modified carbon fibers exhibit different surface characteristics and retain different compounds accordingly. Three kinds of mobile-phase solvents were used to elute the compounds of varied chemical heterogeneities. The 2DμCFs separation system has the ability to effectively separate different compounds based on their polarity and solubility characteristics. No complicated sample preparation method was used prior to analysis, which makes the strategy more eco-friendly, practical, and faster than traditional analysis methods. For optimum analysis results, mobile phase composition, flow rate, and sample diluent were optimized. Water-soluble vitamins, fat-soluble vitamins, and amino acids, as well as 22 vitamin metabolites and 11 vitamin metabolic pathway-related metabolites, were found in urine samples. All water-soluble vitamins except vitamin B12 and vitamin B9 were detected in urine samples. However, no fat-soluble vitamin was detected, and only one metabolite of Vitamin A was found. The comparison with a blank urine sample showed a considerable difference in metabolite content. For example, vitamin metabolites and three related metabolites were not detected in blank urine. The complete single-run screening was carried out in 5.5 minutes with the minimum consumption of toxic organic solvent (0.5 ml). The analytical method was evaluated in terms of greenness, with an analytical greenness (AGREE) score of 0.72. The method’s practicality has been investigated using the Blue Applicability Grade Index (BAGI) tool, obtaining a score of 77. The findings in this work illustrated that the 2DµCFs-TOF-MS approach could emerge as a fast, sustainable, practical, high-throughput, and promising analytical tool for screening and accurate detection of various metabolites, pharmaceuticals, and ingredients in dietary supplements as well as biological fluids.

Keywords: metabolite analysis, sustainability, carbon fibers, urine.

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Authors: Mingxin Li, Liya Ni

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Autonomous parking is a valuable feature applicable to many robotics applications such as tour guide robots, UV sanitizing robots, food delivery robots, and warehouse robots. With auto-parking, the robot will be able to park at the charging zone and charge itself without human intervention. As compared to self-driving vehicles, auto-parking is more challenging for a small-scale mobile robot only equipped with a front camera due to the camera view limited by the robot’s height and the narrow Field of View (FOV) of the inexpensive camera. In this research, auto-parking of a small-scale mobile robot with a front camera only was achieved in a four-step process: Firstly, transfer learning was performed on the AlexNet, a popular pre-trained convolutional neural network (CNN). It was trained with 150 pictures of empty parking slots and 150 pictures of occupied parking slots from the view angle of a small-scale robot. The dataset of images was divided into a group of 70% images for training and the remaining 30% images for validation. An average success rate of 95% was achieved. Secondly, the image of detected empty parking space was processed with edge detection followed by the computation of parametric representations of the boundary lines using the Hough Transform algorithm. Thirdly, the positions of the entrance point and center of available parking space were predicted based on the robot kinematic model as the robot was driving closer to the parking space because the boundary lines disappeared partially or completely from its camera view due to the height and FOV limitations. The robot used its wheel speeds to compute the positions of the parking space with respect to its changing local frame as it moved along, based on its kinematic model. Lastly, the predicted entrance point of the parking space was used as the reference for the motion control of the robot until it was replaced by the actual center when it became visible again by the robot. The linear and angular velocities of the robot chassis center were computed based on the error between the current chassis center and the reference point. Then the left and right wheel speeds were obtained using inverse kinematics and sent to the motor driver. The above-mentioned four subtasks were all successfully accomplished, with the transformed learning, image processing, and target prediction performed in MATLAB, while the motion control and image capture conducted on a self-built small scale differential drive mobile robot. The small-scale robot employs a Raspberry Pi board, a Pi camera, an L298N dual H-bridge motor driver, a USB power module, a power bank, four wheels, and a chassis. Future research includes three areas: the integration of all four subsystems into one hardware/software platform with the upgrade to an Nvidia Jetson Nano board that provides superior performance for deep learning and image processing; more testing and validation on the identification of available parking space and its boundary lines; improvement of performance after the hardware/software integration is completed.

Keywords: autonomous parking, convolutional neural network, image processing, kinematics-based prediction, transfer learning

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Authors: Anna Carolina De Paula Sermarini, Rodrigo Flora Calili

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Energy Efficiency (EE) needs investments, new technologies, greater awareness and management on the side of citizens and organizations, and more planning. However, this issue is usually remembered and discussed only in moments of energy crises, and opportunities are missed to take better advantage of the potential of EE in the various sectors of the economy. In addition, there is little concern about the subject among the less favored classes, especially in low-income communities. Accordingly, this article presents suggestions for public policies that aim to increase EE for low-income housing and communities based on international and national experiences. After reviewing the literature, eight policies were listed, and to evaluate them; a multicriteria decision model was developed using the AHP (Analytical Hierarchy Process) and TOPSIS (Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution) methods, combined with fuzzy logic. Nine experts analyzed the policies according to 9 criteria: economic impact, social impact, environmental impact, previous experience, the difficulty of implementation, possibility/ease of monitoring and evaluating the policies, expected impact, political risks, and public governance and sustainability of the sector. The results found in order of preference are (i) Incentive program for equipment replacement; (ii) Community awareness program; (iii) EE Program with a greater focus on low income; (iv) Staggered and compulsory certification of social interest buildings; (v) Programs for the expansion of smart metering, energy monitoring and digitalization; (vi) Financing program for construction and retrofitting of houses with the emphasis on EE; (vii) Income tax deduction for investment in EE projects in low-income households made by companies; (viii) White certificates of energy for low-income. First, the policy of equipment substitution has been employed in Brazil and the world and has proven effective in promoting EE. For implementation, efforts are needed from the federal and state governments, which can encourage companies to reduce prices, and provide some type of aid for the purchase of such equipment. In second place is the community awareness program, promoting socio-educational actions on EE concepts and with energy conservation tips. This policy is simple to implement and has already been used by many distribution utilities in Brazil. It can be carried out through bids defined by the government in specific areas, being executed by third sector companies with public and private resources. Third on the list is the proposal to continue the Energy Efficiency Program (which obliges electric energy companies to allocate resources for research in the area) by suggesting the return of the mandatory investment of 60% of the resources in projects for low income. It is also relatively simple to implement, requiring efforts by the federal government to make it mandatory, and on the part of the distributors, compliance is needed. The success of the suggestions depends on changes in the established rules and efforts from the interested parties. For future work, we suggest the development of pilot projects in low-income communities in Brazil and the application of other multicriteria decision support methods to compare the results obtained in this study.

Keywords: energy efficiency, low-income community, public policy, multicriteria decision making

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Authors: Md. Nuru Miah, A. F. M. Akhter Uddin

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Medicinal plants are grown naturally in a tropical environment in Bangladesh and used as drug and therapeutic agents in the health care system. According to Bangladesh Agricultural Research Institute (BARI), there are 722 species of medicinal plants in the country. Of them, 255 plants are utilized by the manufacturers of Ayurvedic and Unani medicines. Medicinal plants like Aloevera, Ashwagonda, shotomul,Tulsi, Vuikumra, Misridana are extensively cultivated in some selected areas as well; where Aloevera scored the highest position in production. In the early 1980, Ayurvedic and Unani companies procured 80 percent of medicinal plants from natural forests, and the rest 20 percent was imported. Now the scenario has changed; 80 percent is imported, and the rest 20 percent is collected from local products(Source: Astudy on sectorbased need assessment of Business promotion council-Herbal products and medicinal plants, page-4). Uttara Development Program Society, a leading Non- Government development organization in Bangladesh, has been implementing a value chain development project under promoting Agricultural commercialization and Enterprises of Pally Karma Sahayak Foundation (PKSF) funded by the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) in Natore Sadar Upazila from April 2017 to sustainably develop the technological interventions for products and market development. The ultimate goal of the project is to increase income, generate employment and develop this sector as a sustainable business enterprise. Altogether 10,000 farmers (Nursery owners, growers, input supplier, processors, whole sellers, and retailers) are engaged in different activities of the project. The entrepreneurs engaged in medicinal plant cultivation did not know and follow environmental and good agricultural practices. They used to adopt traditional methodology in production and processing. Locally the farmers didn’t have any positive initiative to expand their business as well as developvalue added products. A lot of diversified products could be possible to develop and marketed with the introduction of post-harvest processing technology and market linkage with the local and global buyer. Training is imparted to the nursery owners and herbal growers on production technologies, sowing method, use of organic fertilizers/compost/pesticides, harvesting procedures, and storage facilities. Different types of herbal tea like Rosella, Moringa, Tulshi, and Basak are being produced and packed locally with a good scope of its marketing in different cities of the country. The project has been able to achieve a significant impact in the development of production technologies, but still, there is room for further improvement in processing, packaging, and marketing level. The core intervention of the current project to develop some entrepreneurs for branding, packaging, promotion, and marketing while considering environment friendly practices. The present strategies will strengthen the knowledge and skills of the entrepreneurs for the production and marketing of their products, maintaining worldwide accepted compliance system for easy access to the global market.

Keywords: aloe vera, herbs and shrubs, market, interventions

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Authors: Melanie Grier, Adam Murry

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Objective: Worldwide, Indigenous Peoples experience underemployment and poverty at disproportionately higher rates than non-Indigenous people, despite similar rates of employment seeking. Euro-colonial conquest and genocidal assimilation policies are implicated as perpetuating poverty, which research consistently links to health and wellbeing disparities. Many of the contributors to poverty, such as inadequate income and lack of access to medical care, can be directly or indirectly linked to underemployment. Calls have been made to prioritize Indigenous perspectives in Industrial-Organizational (I/O) psychology research, yet the literature on Indigenous employment remains scarce. What does exist is disciplinarily diverse, topically scattered, and lacking evidence of community-based participatory research (CBPR) practices, a research project approach which prioritizes community leadership, partnership, and betterment and reduces the potential for harm. Due to the harmful colonial legacy of extractive scientific inquiry "on" rather than "with" Indigenous groups, Indigenous leaders and research funding agencies advocate for academic researchers to adopt reparative research methodologies such as CBPR to be used when studying issues pertaining to Indigenous Peoples or individuals. However, the frequency and consistency of CBPR implementation within scholarly discourse are unknown. Therefore, this project’s goal is two-fold: (1) to understand what comprises CBPR in Indigenous research and (2) to determine if CBPR has been historically used in Indigenous employment research. Method: Using a systematic literature review process, sixteen articles about CBPR use with Indigenous groups were selected, and content was analyzed to identify key components comprising CBPR usage. An Indigenous CBPR components framework was constructed and subsequently utilized to analyze the Indigenous employment empirical literature. A similar systematic literature review process was followed to search for relevant empirical articles on Indigenous employment. A total of 120 articles were identified in six global regions: Australia, New Zealand, Canada, America, the Pacific Islands, and Greenland/Norway. Each empirical study was procedurally examined and coded for criteria inclusion using content analysis directives. Results: Analysis revealed that, in total, CBPR elements were used 14% of the time in Indigenous employment research. Most studies (n=69; 58%) neglected to mention using any CBPR components, while just two studies discussed implementing all sixteen (2%). The most significant determinant of overall CBPR use was community member partnership (CP) in the research process. Studies from New Zealand were most likely to use CBPR components, followed by Canada, Australia, and America. While CBPR use did increase slowly over time, meaningful temporal trends were not found. Further, CBPR use did not directly correspond with the total number of topical articles published that year. Conclusions: Community-initiated and engaged research approaches must be better utilized in employment studies involving Indigenous Peoples. Future research efforts must be particularly attentive to community-driven objectives and research protocols, emphasizing specific areas of concern relevant to the field of I/O psychology, such as organizational support, recruitment, and selection.

Keywords: community-based participatory research, content analysis, employment, indigenous research, international, reconciliation, recruitment, reparative research, selection, systematic literature review

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Authors: Palak V. Patel, Jessica Pixley, Steven R. Feldman

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Introduction: Basal cell carcinoma (BCC) is the most common skin cancer worldwide and requires substantial resources to treat. When choosing between indicated therapies, providers consider their associated adverse effects, efficacy, cosmesis, and function preservation. The patient’s tumor burden, infiltrative risk, and risk of tumor recurrence are also considered. Treatment cost is often left out of these discussions. This can lead to financial toxicity, which describes the harm and quality of life reductions inflicted by high care costs. Methods: We studied the guidelines set forth by the American Academy of Dermatology for the treatment of BCC. A PubMed literature search was conducted to identify the costs of each recommended therapy. We discuss costs alongside treatment efficacy and side-effect profile. Results: Surgical treatment for BCC can be cost-effective if the appropriate treatment is selected for the presenting tumor. Curettage and electrodesiccation can be used in low-grade, low-recurrence tumors in aesthetically unimportant areas. The benefits of cost-conscious care are not likely to be outweighed by the risks of poor cosmesis or tumor return ($471 BCC of the cheek). When tumor burden is limited, MMS offers better cure rates and lower recurrence rates than surgical excision, and with comparable costs (MMS $1263; SE $949). Surgical excision with permanent sections may be indicated when tumor burden is more extensive or if molecular testing is necessary. The utility of surgical excision with frozen sections, which costs substantially more than MMS without comparable outcomes, is less clear (SE with frozen sections $2334-$3085). Less data exists on non-surgical treatments for BCC. These techniques cost less, but recurrence-risk is high. Side-effects of nonsurgical treatment are limited to local skin reactions, and cosmesis is good. Cryotherapy, 5-FU, and MAL-PDT are all more affordable than surgery, but high recurrence rates increase risk of secondary financial and psychosocial burden (recurrence rates 21-39%; cost $100-270). Radiation therapy offers better clearance rates than other nonsurgical treatments but is associated with similar recurrence rates and a significantly larger financial burden ($2591-$3460 BCC of the cheek). Treatments for advanced or metastatic BCC are extremely costly, but few patients require their use, and the societal cost burden remains low. Vismodegib and sonidegib have good response rates but substantial side effects, and therapy should be combined with multidisciplinary care and palliative measures. Expert-review has found sonidegib to be the less expensive and more efficacious option (vismodegib $128,358; sonidegib $122,579). Platinum therapy, while not FDA-approved, is also effective but expensive (~91,435). Immunotherapy offers a new line of treatment in patients intolerant of hedgehog inhibitors ($683,061). Conclusion: Dermatologists working within resource-compressed practices and with resource-limited patients must prudently manage the healthcare dollar. Surgical therapies for BCC offer the lowest risk of recurrence at the most reasonable cost. Non-surgical therapies are more affordable, but high recurrence rates increase the risk of secondary financial and psychosocial burdens. Treatments for advanced BCC are incredibly costly, but the low incidence means the overall cost to the system is low.

Keywords: nonmelanoma skin cancer, basal cell skin cancer, squamous cell skin cancer, cost of care

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Authors: Erica Cochran Hameen, Bobuchi Ken-Opurum, Mounica Guturu

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The United Stated (U.S.) populous spends the majority of their time indoors in spaces where building codes and voluntary sustainability standards provide clear Indoor Environmental Quality (IEQ) metrics. The existing sustainable building standards and codes are aimed towards improving IEQ, health of occupants, and reducing the negative impacts of buildings on the environment. While they address the post-occupancy stage of buildings, there are fewer standards on the pre-occupancy stage thereby placing a large labor population in environments much less regulated. Construction personnel are often exposed to a variety of uncomfortable and unhealthy elements while on construction sites, primarily thermal, visual, acoustic, and air quality related. Construction site power generators, equipment, and machinery generate on average 9 decibels (dBA) above the U.S. OSHA regulations, creating uncomfortable noise levels. Research has shown that frequent exposure to high noise levels leads to chronic physiological issues and increases noise induced stress, yet beyond OSHA no other metric focuses directly on the impacts of noise on contractors’ well-being. Research has also associated natural light with higher productivity and attention span, and lower cases of fatigue in construction workers. However, daylight is not always available as construction workers often perform tasks in cramped spaces, dark areas, or at nighttime. In these instances, the use of artificial light is necessary, yet lighting standards for use during lengthy tasks and arduous activities is not specified. Additionally, ambient air, contaminants, and material off-gassing expelled at construction sites are one of the causes of serious health effects in construction workers. Coupled with extreme hot and cold temperatures for different climate zones, health and productivity can be seriously compromised. This research evaluates the impact of existing green building metrics on construction and risk management, by analyzing two codes and nine standards including LEED, WELL, and BREAM. These metrics were chosen based on the relevance to the U.S. construction industry. This research determined that less than 20% of the sustainability context within the standards and codes (texts) are related to the pre-occupancy building sector. The research also investigated the impact of construction personnel’s health and well-being on construction management through two surveys of project managers and on-site contractors’ perception of their work environment on productivity. To fully understand the risks of limited Environmental and Health Quality metrics for contractors (EHQ) this research evaluated the connection between EHQ factors such as inefficient lighting, on construction workers and investigated the correlation between various site coping strategies for comfort and productivity. Outcomes from this research are three-pronged. The first includes fostering a discussion about the existing conditions of EQH elements, i.e. thermal, lighting, ergonomic, acoustic, and air quality on the construction labor force. The second identifies gaps in sustainability standards and codes during the pre-occupancy stage of building construction from ground-breaking to substantial completion. The third identifies opportunities for improvements and mitigation strategies to improve EQH such as increased monitoring of effects on productivity and health of contractors and increased inclusion of the pre-occupancy stage in green building standards.

Keywords: construction contractors, health and well-being, environmental quality, risk management

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Authors: Dilnee D. Suraweera, Tim Groom, Brian Chung, Brendan Bond, Andrew Schipp, Marc E. Nicolas

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Pyrethrum (Tanacetum cinerariifolium) is a perennial plant belongs to family Asteraceae. This is cultivated commercially for extraction of natural insecticide pyrethrins, which accumulates in their flower head achenes. Approximately 94% of the pyrethrins are produced within secretory ducts and trichomes of achenes of the mature pyrethrum flower. This is the most widely used botanical insecticide in the world and Australia is the current largest pyrethrum producer in the world. Rainfall in pyrethrum growing regions in Australia during pyrethrum flowering period, in late spring and early summer is significantly less. Due to lack of adequate soil moisture and under elevated temperature conditions during post-anthesis period, resulting in yield reductions. Therefore, understanding of yield responses of pyrethrum to irrigation is important for Pyrethrum as a commercial crop. Irrigation management has been identified as a key area of pyrethrum crop management strategies that could be manipulated to increase yield. Pyrethrum is a comparatively drought tolerant plant and it has some ability to survive in dry conditions due to deep rooting. But in dry areas and in dry seasons, the crop cannot reach to its full yield potential without adequate soil moisture. Therefore, irrigation is essential during the flowering period prevent crop water stress and maximise yield. Irrigation during the water deficit period results in an overall increased rate of water uptake and growth by the plant which is essential to achieve the maximum yield benefits from commercial crops. The effects of irrigation treatments applied at post-anthesis period on pyrethrum yield responses were studied in two irrigation methods. This was conducted in a first harvest commercial pyrethrum field in Waubra, Victoria, during 2012/2013 season. Drip irrigation and overhead sprinkler irrigation treatments applied during whole flowering period were compared with ‘rainfed’ treatment in relation to flower yield and pyrethrin yield responses. The results of this experiment showed that the application of 180mm of irrigation throughout the post-anthesis period, from early flowering stages to physiological maturity under drip irrigation treatment increased pyrethrin concentration by 32%, which combined with the 95 % increase in the flower yield to give a total pyrethrin yield increase of 157%, compared to the ‘rainfed’ treatment. In contrast to that overhead sprinkler irrigation treatment increased pyrethrin concentration by 19%, which combined with the 60 % increase in the flower yield to give a total pyrethrin yield increase of 91%, compared to the ‘rainfed’ treatment. Irrigation treatments applied throughout the post-anthesis period significantly increased flower yield as a result of enhancement of number of flowers and flower size. Irrigation provides adequate soil moisture for flower development in pyrethrum which slows the rate of flower development and increases the length of the flowering period, resulting in a delayed crop harvest (11 days) compared to the ‘rainfed’ treatment. Overall, irrigation has a major impact on pyrethrin accumulation which increases the rate and duration of pyrethrin accumulation resulting in higher pyrethrin yield per flower at physiological maturity. The findings of this study will be important for future yield predictions and to develop advanced agronomic strategies to maximise pyrethrin yield in pyrethrum.

Keywords: achene, drip irrigation, overhead irrigation, pyrethrin

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Authors: C. Soffritti, A. Fortini, E. Baroni, M. Merlin, G. L. Garagnani

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Aluminum alloys are widely used in many engineering applications due to their advantages such ashigh electrical and thermal conductivities, low density, high strength to weight ratio, and good corrosion resistance. However, their low hardness and poor tribological properties still limit their use in industrial fields requiring sliding contacts. Hard anodizing is one of the most common solution for overcoming issues concerning the insufficient friction resistance of aluminum alloys. In this work, the tribological behavior ofhard-anodized AW-4006 aluminum alloys in dry and lubricated conditions was evaluated. Three different hard-anodizing treatments were selected: a conventional one (HA) and two innovative golden hard-anodizing treatments (named G and GP, respectively), which involve the sealing of the porosity of anodic aluminum oxides (AAO) with silver ions at different temperatures. Before wear tests, all AAO layers were characterized by scanning electron microscopy (VPSEM/EDS), X-ray diffractometry, roughness (Ra and Rz), microhardness (HV0.01), nanoindentation, and scratch tests. Wear tests were carried out according to the ASTM G99-17 standard using a ball-on-disc tribometer. The tests were performed in triplicate under a 2 Hz constant frequency oscillatory motion, a maximum linear speed of 0.1 m/s, normal loads of 5, 10, and 15 N, and a sliding distance of 200 m. A 100Cr6 steel ball10 mm in diameter was used as counterpart material. All tests were conducted at room temperature, in dry and lubricated conditions. Considering the more recent regulations about the environmental hazard, four bio-lubricants were considered after assessing their chemical composition (in terms of Unsaturation Number, UN) and viscosity: olive, peanut, sunflower, and soybean oils. The friction coefficient was provided by the equipment. The wear rate of anodized surfaces was evaluated by measuring the cross-section area of the wear track with a non-contact 3D profilometer. Each area value, obtained as an average of four measurements of cross-section areas along the track, was used to determine the wear volume. The worn surfaces were analyzed by VPSEM/EDS. Finally, in agreement with DoE methodology, a statistical analysis was carried out to identify the most influencing factors on the friction coefficients and wear rates. In all conditions, results show that the friction coefficient increased with raising the normal load. Considering the wear tests in dry sliding conditions, irrespective of the type of anodizing treatments, metal transfer between the mating materials was observed over the anodic aluminum oxides. During sliding at higher loads, the detachment of the metallic film also caused the delamination of some regions of the wear track. For the wear tests in lubricated conditions, the natural oils with high percentages of oleic acid (i.e., olive and peanut oils) maintained high friction coefficients and low wear rates. Irrespective of the type of oil, smallmicrocraks were visible over the AAO layers. Based on the statistical analysis, the type of anodizing treatment and magnitude of applied load were the main factors of influence on the friction coefficient and wear rate values. Nevertheless, an interaction between bio-lubricants and load magnitude could occur during the tests.

Keywords: hard anodizing treatment, silver ions, bio-lubricants, sliding wear, statistical analysis

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Authors: Shashi Mehta, Krishan Kumar Yadav

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This paper presents an overview of issues pertaining to the conservation of the natural environment and factors affecting the coexistence of the forest, wildlife and people. As forests and wildlife together create the basis for economic, cultural and recreational spaces for overall well-being and life-support systems, the adverse impacts of increasing consumerism are only too evident. The IUCN predicts extinction of 41% of all amphibians and 26% of mammals. The major causes behind this threatened extinction are Deforestation, Dysfunctional governance, Climate Change, Pollution and Cataclysmic phenomena. Thus the intrinsic relationship between natural resources and wildlife needs to be understood in totality, not only for the eco-system but for humanity at large. To demonstrate this, forest areas in the Aravalis- the oldest mountain ranges of Asia—falling in the States of Haryana and Rajasthan, have been taken up for study. The Aravalis are characterized by extreme climatic conditions and dry deciduous forest cover on intermittent scattered hills. Extending across the districts of Gurgaon, Faridabad, Mewat, Mahendergarh, Rewari and Bhiwani, these ranges - with village common land on which the entire economy of the rural settlements depends - fall in the state of Haryana. Aravali ranges with diverse fauna and flora near Alwar town of state of Rajasthan also form part of NCR. Once, rich in biodiversity, the Aravalis played an important role in the sustainable co-existence of forest and people. However, with the advent of industrialization and unregulated urbanization, these ranges are facing deforestation, degradation and denudation. The causes are twofold, i.e. the need of the poor and the greed of the rich. People living in and around the Aravalis are mainly poor and eke out a living by rearing live-stock. With shrinking commons, they depend entirely upon these hills for grazing, fuel, NTFP, medicinal plants and even drinking water. But at the same time, the pressure of indiscriminate urbanization and industrialization in these hills fulfils the demands of the rich and powerful in collusion with Government agencies. The functionaries of federal and State Governments play largely a negative role supporting commercial interests. Additionally, planting of a non- indigenous species like prosopis juliflora across the ranges has resulted in the extinction of almost all the indigenous species. The wildlife in the area is also threatened because of the lack of safe corridors and suitable habitat. In this scenario, the participatory role of different stakeholders such as NGOs, civil society and local community in the management of forests becomes crucial not only for conservation but also for the economic wellbeing of the local people. Exclusion of villagers from protection and conservation efforts - be it designing, implementing or monitoring and evaluating could prove counterproductive. A strategy needs to be evolved, wherein Government agencies be made responsible by putting relevant legislation in place along with nurturing and promoting the traditional wisdom and ethics of local communities in the protection and conservation of forests and wild life in the Aravali ranges of States of Haryana and Rajasthan of the National Capital Region, Delhi.

Keywords: deforestation, ecosystem, governance, urbanization

Procedia PDF Downloads 325

Authors: Alfonso Sepulveda, Brecht Put, Nouha Labyedh, Philippe M. Vereecken

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High energy and power density are the main requirements of today’s high demanding applications in consumer electronics. Lithium ion batteries (LIB) have the highest energy density of all known systems and are thus the best choice for rechargeable micro-batteries. Liquid electrolyte LIBs present limitations in safety, size and design, thus thin film all-solid state batteries are predominantly considered to overcome these restrictions in small devices. Although planar all-solid state thin film LIBs are at present commercially available they have low capacity (<1mAh/cm2) which limits their application scenario. By using micro-or nanostructured surfaces (i.e. 3D batteries) and appropriate conformal coating technology (i.e. electrochemical deposition, ALD) the capacity can be increased while still keeping a high rate performance. The main challenges in the introduction of solid-state LIBs are low ionic conductance and limited cycle life time due to mechanical stress and shearing interfaces. Novel materials and innovative nanostructures have to be explored in order to overcome these limitations. Thin film 3D compatible materials need to provide with the necessary requirements for functional and viable thin-film stacks. Thin film electrodes offer shorter Li-diffusion paths and high gravimetric and volumetric energy densities which allow them to be used at ultra-fast charging rates while keeping their complete capacities. Thin film electrolytes with intrinsically high ion conductivity (~10-3 S.cm) do exist, but are not electrochemically stable. On the other hand, electronically insulating electrolytes with a large electrochemical window and good chemical stability are known, but typically have intrinsically low ionic conductivities (<10-6 S cm). In addition, there is the need for conformal deposition techniques which can offer pinhole-free coverage over large surface areas with large aspect ratio features for electrode, electrolyte and buffer layers. To tackle the scaling of electrodes and the conformal deposition requirements on future 3D batteries we study LiMn2O4 (LMO) and Li4Ti5O12 (LTO). These materials are among the most interesting electrode candidates for thin film batteries offering low cost, low toxicity, high voltage and high capacity. LMO and LTO are considered 3D compatible materials since they can be prepared through conformal deposition techniques. Here, we show the scaling effects on rate performance and cycle stability of thin film cathode layers of LMO created by RF-sputtering. Planar LMO thin films below 100 nm have been electrochemically characterized. The thinnest films show the highest volumetric capacity and the best cycling stability. The increased stability of the films below 50 nm allows cycling in both the 4 and 3V potential region, resulting in a high volumetric capacity of 1.2Ah/cm3. Also, the creation of LTO anode layers through a post-lithiation process of TiO2 is demonstrated here. Planar LTO thin films below 100 nm have been electrochemically characterized. A 70 nm film retains 85% of its original capacity after 100 (dis)charging cycles at 10C. These layers can be implemented into a high aspect ratio structures. IMEC develops high aspect Si pillars arrays which is the base for the advance of 3D thin film all-solid state batteries of future technologies.

Keywords: Li-ion rechargeable batteries, thin film, nanostructures, rate performance, 3D batteries, all-solid state

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Authors: Rahel Birhanu Kassaye, Ralf Otterpohl, Kumelachew Yeshitila

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Water resource management and land degradation are among the critical issues threatening the suitable livability of many cities in developing countries such as Ethiopia. Rapid expansion of urban areas and fast growing population has increased the pressure on water security. On the other hand, the large transformation of natural green cover and agricultural land loss to settlement and industrial activities such as quarrying is contributing to environmental concerns. Integrated water harvesting is considered to play a crucial role in terms of providing alternative water source to insure water security and helping to improve soil condition, agricultural productivity and regeneration of ecosystem. Moreover, it helps to control stormwater runoff, thus reducing flood risks and pollution, thereby improving the quality of receiving water bodies and the health of inhabitants. The aim of this research was to investigate the potential of applying integrated water harvesting approaches as a provision for water source and enabling land restoration in Jemo river catchment consisting of abandoned quarry site adjacent to a settlement area that is facing serious water shortage in western hilly part of Addis Ababa city, Ethiopia. The abandoned quarry site, apart from its contribution to the loss of aesthetics, has resulted in poor water infiltration and increase in stormwater runoff leading to land degradation and flooding in the downstream. Application of GIS and multi-criteria based analysis are used for the assessment of potential water harvesting technologies considering the technology features and site characteristics of the case study area. Biophysical parameters including precipitation, surrounding land use, surface gradient, soil characteristics and geological aspects are used as site characteristic indicators and water harvesting technologies including retention pond, check dam, agro-forestation employing contour trench system were considered for evaluation with technical and socio-economic factors used as parameters in the assessment. The assessment results indicate the different suitability potential among the analyzed water harvesting and restoration techniques with respect to the abandoned quarry site characteristics. Application of agro-forestation with contour trench system with the revegetation of indigenous plants is found to be the most suitable option for reclamation and restoration of the quarry site. Successful application of the selected technologies and strategies for water harvesting and restoration is considered to play a significant role to provide additional water source, maintain good water quality, increase agricultural productivity at urban peri-urban interface scale and improve biodiversity in the catchment. The results of the study provide guideline for decision makers and contribute to the integration of decentralized water harvesting and restoration techniques in the water management and planning of the case study area.

Keywords: abandoned quarry site, land reclamation and restoration, multi-criteria assessment, water harvesting

Procedia PDF Downloads 216

Authors: Soheila Sadeghi

Abstract:

Accurate cost prediction is essential for effective project management and decision-making in the construction industry. This study aims to develop a cost prediction model for construction projects using Machine Learning techniques and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO). The research utilizes a comprehensive dataset containing project cost estimates, actual costs, resource details, and project performance metrics from a road reconstruction project. The methodology involves data preprocessing, feature selection, and the development of an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model optimized using PSO. The study investigates the impact of various input features, including cost estimates, resource allocation, and project progress, on the accuracy of cost predictions. The performance of the optimized ANN model is evaluated using metrics such as Mean Squared Error (MSE), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and R-squared. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach in predicting project costs, outperforming traditional benchmark models. The feature selection process identifies the most influential variables contributing to cost variations, providing valuable insights for project managers. However, this study has several limitations. Firstly, the model's performance may be influenced by the quality and quantity of the dataset used. A larger and more diverse dataset covering different types of construction projects would enhance the model's generalizability. Secondly, the study focuses on a specific optimization technique (PSO) and a single Machine Learning algorithm (ANN). Exploring other optimization methods and comparing the performance of various ML algorithms could provide a more comprehensive understanding of the cost prediction problem. Future research should focus on several key areas. Firstly, expanding the dataset to include a wider range of construction projects, such as residential buildings, commercial complexes, and infrastructure projects, would improve the model's applicability. Secondly, investigating the integration of additional data sources, such as economic indicators, weather data, and supplier information, could enhance the predictive power of the model. Thirdly, exploring the potential of ensemble learning techniques, which combine multiple ML algorithms, may further improve cost prediction accuracy. Additionally, developing user-friendly interfaces and tools to facilitate the adoption of the proposed cost prediction model in real-world construction projects would be a valuable contribution to the industry. The findings of this study have significant implications for construction project management, enabling proactive cost estimation, resource allocation, budget planning, and risk assessment, ultimately leading to improved project performance and cost control. This research contributes to the advancement of cost prediction techniques in the construction industry and highlights the potential of Machine Learning and PSO in addressing this critical challenge. However, further research is needed to address the limitations and explore the identified future research directions to fully realize the potential of ML-based cost prediction models in the construction domain.

Keywords: cost prediction, construction projects, machine learning, artificial neural networks, particle swarm optimization, project management, feature selection, road reconstruction

Procedia PDF Downloads 60