Search results for: evidence theory

Authors: Steven Walker

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This paper assesses recent data on the prevalence of poverty among children and young people diagnosed with mental health problems. The paper will demonstrate that the current hierarchy of risk factors for developing mental health problems needs adjusting to place poverty among the highest risk factors. Globally poverty is calculated to keep rising especially among less developed countries, and the post-Covid 19 economic recession in developed countries is set to rise. The experience of young people enduring Pandemic isolation is already being quantified and is expected to increase referrals for specialist intervention. Searches on several medical/psychological/social databases using keywords: poverty, children, mental illness were undertaken between 2018 and 2021. Worldwide, 700 million people still live in extreme poverty, half of whom are children. Children are physically and mentally disproportionately affected. Children who grow up impoverished lack the basic necessities they need to survive and thrive. 150 million children have been plunged into multidimensional poverty due to COVID-19. The poorest children are twice as likely to die in childhood than their wealthier peers. For those growing up in humanitarian crises such as Ukraine, the risks of deprivation and exclusion are magnified. In the world’s richest countries, one in seven children still live in poverty. Currently, one in four children in the European Union are at risk of falling into poverty. In Europe the impact of Brexit on the UK economy is predicted to reduce GDP by 5% in 2021 with a corresponding rise in poverty. According to the global charity Oxfam wealth inequality impacts levels of child abuse and affects women and girls worse and is a contributory factor in the risk of developing childhood mental illness. In the UK 2000 Foodbanks have opened since 2010, handing out 2 million food parcels annually, where there are currently 4 million children officially living in poverty. This research demonstrates that there is a strong association between families’ socio-economic circumstances and the chances that their children will experience mental illness. Evidence of this association is found repeatedly across developed countries. The paper will conclude by arguing that psychologists, psychiatrists, psychotherapists, social workers and CAMHS specialists need to place more importance on this critical socio-economic variable when assessing referred children and also advocate for political priorities in governments to reduce poverty and lower the risk of childhood mental illness.

Keywords: poverty, resilience, risk factor, socio economic, susceptibility

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Authors: S. Mondal, L. M. Olsen-Kettle, L. Gross

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Fracture propagation and damage evolution are extremely important for many industrial applications including mining industry, composite materials, earthquake simulations, hydraulic fracturing. The influence of pre-existing flaws and rock heterogeneity on the processes and mechanisms of rock fracture has important ramifications in many mining and reservoir engineering applications. We simulate the damage evolution and fracture propagation in an isotropic sandstone specimen containing a pre-existing 3-D surface flaw in different configurations under uniaxial compression. We apply a damage model based on the unified strength theory and solve the solid deformation and damage evolution equations using the Finite Element Method (FEM) with tetrahedron elements on unstructured meshes through the simulation software, eScript. Unstructured meshes provide higher geometrical flexibility and allow a more accurate way to model the varying flaw depth, angle, and length through locally adapted FEM meshes. The heterogeneity of rock is considered by initializing material properties using a Weibull distribution sampled over a cubic grid. In our model, we introduce a length scale related to the rock heterogeneity which is independent of the mesh size. We investigate the effect of parameters including the heterogeneity of the elastic moduli and geometry of the single flaw in the stress strain response. The generation of three typical surface cracking patterns, called wing cracks, anti-wing cracks and far-field cracks were identified, and these depend on the geometry of the pre-existing surface flaw. This model results help to advance our understanding of fracture and damage growth in heterogeneous rock with the aim to develop fracture simulators for different industry applications.

Keywords: finite element method, heterogeneity, isotropic damage, uniaxial compression

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Authors: Lina Lauciene, Vaida Andruleviciute, Ingrida Sinkeviciene, Mindaugas Malakauskas, Loreta Serniene

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Dairy product manufacturers constantly are looking for new markets for their production. And in most cases, the problem of product compliance with the composition requirements of foreign products is highlighted. This is especially true of the composition of milk fat in dairy products. It is well known that there are many factors such as feeding ratio, season, cow breed, stage of lactation that affect the fatty acid composition in milk. However, there is less evidence on the impact of the technological process on the composition of fatty acids in raw milk and products made from it. In this study the influence of the technological process on fat composition in 82% fat butter, 15% fat curd, 3.6% fat yogurt and 2.5% fat UHT milk was determined. The samples were collected at each stage of production, starting with raw milk and ending with the final product in the Lithuanian milk-processing company. Fatty acids methyl esters were quantified using a GC (Clarus 680, Perkin Elmer) equipped with flame ionization detector (FID) and a capillary column SP-2560, 100 m x 0.25 mm id x 0.20 µm. Fatty acids peaks were identified using Supelco® 37 Component FAME Mix. The concentration of each fatty acid was expressed in percent of the total fatty acid amount. In the case of UHT milk production, it was compared raw milk, cream, milk mixture, and UHT milk but significant differences were not estimated between these stages. Analyzing stages of the yogurt production (raw milk, pasteurized milk, and milk with a starter culture and yogurt), no significant changes were detected between stages as well. A slight difference was observed with C4:0 - a percentage of this fatty acid was less (p=0.053) in the final stage than in milk with the starter culture. During butter production, the composition of fatty acids in raw cream, buttermilk, and butter did not change significantly. Only C14:0 decreased in the butter then compared to buttermilk. The curd fatty acid analysis showed the increase of C6:0, C8:0, C10:0, C11:0, C12:0 C14:0 and C17:0 at the final stage when compared to raw milk, cream, milk mixture, and whey. Meantime the increase of C18:1n9c (in comparison with milk mixture and curd) and C18:2n6c (in comparison with raw milk, milk mixture, and curd) was estimated in cream. The results of this study suggest that the technological process did not affect the composition of fatty acids in UHT milk, yogurt, butter, and curd but had the impact on the concentration of individual fatty acids. In general, all of the fatty acids from the raw milk were converted into the final product, only some of them slightly changed the concentration. Therefore, in order to ensure an appropriate composition of certain fatty acids in the final product, producers must carefully choose the raw milk. Acknowledgment: This research was funded by Lithuanian Ministry of Agriculture (No. MT-17-13).

Keywords: dairy products, fat composition, fatty acids, technological process

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Authors: Fulufhelo Oscar Maphiri-Makananise

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The main purpose of this paper is to explore and provide substantiated evidence based on the usage patterns of Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) by females in the Vhembe District in Limpopo-Province, South Africa. The study presents a broader picture and understanding about the usage of ICTs from female’s perspective. The significance of this study stems from the need to discover the role, relevance and usage patterns of ICTs such as smartphones, computers, laptops, and iPods, internet and social networking sites among females following the trends of new media technologies in the society. The main objective of the study was to investigate the usability and accessibility of ICTs to empower the Vhembe District females in South Africa. The study used quantitative research method together with elements of qualitative research to determine the major ideas, perceptions and usage patterns of ICTs by females in the District. Data collection involved structured and self-administered questionnaire with both closed-ended and open-ended questions. Two groups of respondents participated in this study. Media Studies female students (n=50) at the University of Venda provided their ideas and perceptions about the usefulness and usage patterns of ICTs such as smartphones, internet and computers at the university level, while the second group were (n=50) Makhado comprehensive school learners who also provided their perceptions and ideas about the use of ICTs at the high school level. Also, the study provides a more balanced, accurate and rational results on the pertinent issues that concern the use of ICTs by females in the Vhembe District. The researcher also believes that the findings of the study are useful as a guideline and model for ICT intervention that work as an empowerment to women in South Africa. The study showed that the main purpose of using ICTs by females was to search information for writing assignments, conducting research, dating, exchanging ideas and networking with friends and relatives that are also members of social networking sites and maintaining existing friends in real life. The study further revealed that most females were using ICTs for social purposes and accessing the internet than entertaining themselves. The finding also indicated a high number of females that used ICTs for e-learning (62%) and social purposes (85%). Moreover, the study centred on providing strong insightful information on the females’ usage patterns and their perceptions of ICTs in the Vhembe district of Limpopo province.

Keywords: female users, information and communication technologies, internet, usage patterns

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Authors: Xueyan Hu, Liwen Chen, Weilin He, Sujie Peng

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Writing is an important but challenging skill For English language learners. Due to the small amount of time allocated for writing classes at schools, students have relatively few opportunities to practice writing in the classroom. While the practice of integrating listening and speaking activates with writing instruction has been used for adult English language learners, its application for young English learners has seldom been examined due to the challenge of listening and speaking activities for young English language learners. The study attempted to integrating integrating listening and speaking activities with writing instruction for middle school English language learners so as to improving their writing achievements and writing abilities in terms of the word use, coherence, and complexity in their writings. Guided by Gagne's information processing learning theory and memetics, this study conducted a 8-week writing instruction with an experimental class (n=44) and a control class (n=48) . Students in the experimental class participated in a series of listening and retelling activities about a writing sample the teacher used for writing instruction during each period of writing class. Students in the control class were taught traditionally with teachers’ direction instruction using the writing sample. Using the ANCOVA analysis of the scores of students’ writing, word-use, Chinese-English translation and the text structure, this study showed that the experimental writing instruction can significantly improve students’ writing performance. Compared with the students in the control class, the students in experimental class had significant better performance in word use and complexity in their essays. This study provides useful enlightenment for the teaching of English writing for middle school English language learners. Teachers can skillfully use information technology to integrate listening, speaking, and writing teaching, considering students’ language input and output. Teachers need to select suitable and excellent composition templates for students to ensure their high-quality language input.

Keywords: wring instruction, retelling, English language learners, listening and speaking

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Authors: Umair Shoukat Ali, Kamil Zafar, Rashna Hoshang Sukhia, Mubassar Fida, Aqeel Ahmed

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Objective: This systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to summarize the effectiveness of bonded and removable retainers (Hawley and Essix retainer) in terms of improvement in occlusal settling (occlusal contact points/areas) after orthodontic treatment. Search Method: We searched the Cochrane Library, CINAHL Plus, PubMed, Web of Science, Orthodontic journals, and Google scholar for eligible studies. We included randomized control trials (RCT) along with Cohort studies. Studies that reported occlusal contacts/areas during retention with fixed bonded and removable retainers were included. To assess the quality of the RCTs Cochrane risk of bias tool was utilized, whereas Newcastle-Ottawa Scale was used for assessing the quality of cohort studies. Data analysis: The data analysis was limited to reporting mean values of occlusal contact points/areas with different retention methods. By utilizing the RevMan software V.5.3, a meta-analysis was performed for all the studies with the quantitative data. For the computation of the summary effect, a random effect model was utilized in case of high heterogeneity. I2 statistics were utilized to assess the heterogeneity among the selected studies. Results: We included 6 articles in our systematic review after scrutinizing 219 articles and eliminating them based on duplication, titles, and objectives. We found significant differences between fixed and removable retainers in terms of occlusal settling within the included studies. Bonded retainer (BR) allowed faster and better posterior tooth settling as compared to Hawley retainer (HR). However, HR showed good occlusal settling in the anterior dental arch. Essix retainer showed a decrease in occlusal contact during the retention phase. Meta-analysis showed no statistically significant difference between BR and removable retainers. Conclusions: HR allowed better overall occlusal settling as compared to other retainers in comparison. However, BR allowed faster settling in the posterior teeth region. Overall, there are insufficient high-quality RCTs to provide additional evidence, and further high-quality RCTs research is needed.

Keywords: orthodontic retainers, occlusal contact, Hawley, fixed, vacuum-formed

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Authors: Taoues Hadour

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Twitter has become a popular means of communication used in a variety of fields, such as politics, journalism, and academia. This widely used online platform has an impact on the way people express themselves and is changing language usage worldwide at an unprecedented pace. The language used online reflects the linguistic battle that has been going on for several decades in French society. This study enables a deeper understanding of users' linguistic behavior online. The implications are important and allow for a rise in awareness of intercultural and cross-language exchanges. This project investigates the mixing of French-English language usage among French users of Twitter using a topic analysis approach. This analysis draws on Gumperz's theory of conversational switching. In order to collect tweets at a large scale, the data was collected in R using the rtweet package to access and retrieve French tweets data through Twitter’s REST and stream APIs (Application Program Interface) using the software RStudio, the integrated development environment for R. The dataset was filtered manually and certain repetitions of themes were observed. A total of nine topic categories were identified and analyzed in this study: entertainment, internet/social media, events/community, politics/news, sports, sex/pornography, innovation/technology, fashion/make up, and business. The study reveals that entertainment is the most frequent topic discussed on Twitter. Entertainment includes movies, music, games, and books. Anglicisms such as trailer, spoil, and live are identified in the data. Change in language usage is inevitable and is a natural result of linguistic interactions. The use of different languages online is just an example of what the real world would look like without linguistic regulations. Social media reveals a multicultural and multilinguistic richness which can deepen and expand our understanding of contemporary human attitudes.

Keywords: code-switching, French, sociolinguistics, Twitter

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Authors: Wafa Al Jabri

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Sickle cell disease (SCD) is a genetic blood disorder that is characterized by a severe painful crisis. SCD among children requires long term dependencies and high caregiving demands that increase the overall family burdens. It is, therefore, essential to examine, support, and promote the well-being of families of children with SCD. Although there has been considerable progress in the international research on family quality of life (FQOL) in recent years; however, research in this field is relatively recent and diverse. Oman is a country in which family quality of life has definitely been under-researched. Therefore, the purpose of the study is to describe the FQOL in families of children with SCD in Oman. The study will also examine the relationships between child, mother, and family-related factors that may influence the overall FQOL. Theoretical Framework: The study is guided by the unified theory of family quality of life to help in understanding the concept of FQOL and the factors that shape it. Method:A convenience sample of 98 mothers of children with SCD will be recruited from the pediatric hematology clinic at Sultan Qaboos University Hospital in Oman to participate in this descriptive, cross sectional, correlational study. Data will be obtained using a self-administered questionnaire that includes child and mother socio-demographic data, questions about the number of visits and admissions to health care facilities for vaso- occlusive crises (VOCs), the Perceived Stress Scale-10, and the Beachcenter-FQOL scale. Anticipated Results: It is expected to find an association among frequency of VOCs, mother’s perceived stress level, and FQOL in families of children with SCD in Oman. Family type, socio-economic status, and number of SCD children in the family are also expected to influence the overall FQOL. Conclusion: The findings of the study might be pivotal in designing and implementing tailored family-based interventions to improve families’ wellbeing.

Keywords: family quality of life, sickle cell disaes, children, family well-being

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Authors: Y. Landkocz, P. Gosset, A. Héliot, C. Corbière, C. Vendeville, V. Keravec, S. Billet, A. Verdin, C. Monteil, D. Préterre, J-P. Morin, F. Sichel, T. Douki, P. J. Martin

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Air Pollution produced by automobile traffic is one of the main sources of pollutants in urban atmosphere and is largely due to exhausts of the diesel engine powered vehicles. The International Agency for Research on Cancer, which is part of the World Health Organization, classified in 2012 diesel engine exhaust as carcinogenic to humans (Group 1), based on sufficient evidence that exposure is associated with an increased risk for lung cancer. Amongst the strategies aimed at limiting exhausts in order to take into consideration the health impact of automobile pollution, filtration of the emissions and use of biofuels are developed, but their toxicological impact is largely unknown. Diesel exhausts are indeed complex mixtures of toxic substances difficult to study from a toxicological point of view, due to both the necessary characterization of the pollutants, sampling difficulties, potential synergy between the compounds and the wide variety of biological effects. Here, we studied the potential indirect genotoxicity of emission of Diesel engines through on-line exposure of rats in inhalation chambers to a subchronic high but realistic dose. Following exposure to standard gasoil +/- rapeseed methyl ester either upstream or downstream of a particle filter or control treatment, rats have been sacrificed and their lungs collected. The following indirect genotoxic parameters have been measured: (i) telomerase activity and telomeres length associated with rTERT and rTERC gene expression by RT-qPCR on frozen lungs, (ii) γH2AX quantification, representing double-strand DNA breaks, by immunohistochemistry on formalin fixed-paraffin embedded (FFPE) lung samples. These preliminary results will be then associated with global cellular response analyzed by pan-genomic microarrays, monitoring of oxidative stress and the quantification of primary DNA lesions in order to identify biological markers associated with a potential pro-carcinogenic response of diesel or biodiesel, with or without filters, in a relevant system of in vivo exposition.

Keywords: diesel exhaust exposed rats, γH2AX, indirect genotoxicity, lung carcinogenicity, telomerase activity, telomeres length

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Authors: Tunde Puskas, Anita Andersson

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In Swedish early childhood education research, the issues related to religious identifications and practices have often been marginalized or relegated either to the realm of diversity and multiculturalism or to the realm of national traditions. This paper is part of a research project about whether religion is considered as part of Swedish cultural heritage in Swedish preschools. Our aim in this paper is to explore how a Swedish preschool balance between keeping the education non-confessional and at the same time introducing the traditions associated with advent and Christmas. Christmas was chosen because of the religious background of the holiday and because it is a tradition widely celebrated in Swedish preschools. In Swedish education system, the concept of freedom of religion is understood in the sense that education is declared to be non-confessional. Nevertheless, as the major state holidays in Sweden are tied to Lutheran Christian traditions, and according to the curriculum preschool educators, are given the task to pass on a cultural heritage, defined in terms of values, traditions, history, language, and knowledge, it is the preschool teams or individual preschool teachers who determine whether and to what extent religious considerations are/ought to be seen as part of the cultural heritage the preschool passes on. The data consists of ten video taped observations from two preschools. The video data was transcribed and the transcripts were thereafter analysed through content analysis. In the analysis, we draw on the concept of banal religiosity that has helped us to draw attention to the workings of religious considerations that are so familiar that they rarely are noticed as religious and on Ninian Smart’s theory on the dimensions of religion. The analysis shows that what the adults actually do with religion fulfils six of seven dimensions common to religious traditions as outlined by Smart. At the same time, Christmas is performed as a lived tradition within which the commercial and religious rituals intersect and result in a banal, national religiosity.

Keywords: secular advent, banal religiosity, dimensions of religion, rites

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Authors: Geir Kirkebøen

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Most patients with serious diagnoses want to know their prognosis, in particular their expected survival time. As part of the informed consent process, physicians are legally obligated to communicate such information to patients. However, there is no established (evidence based) ‘best practice’ for how to do this. The two questions explored in this study are: How do physicians communicate expected survival time to patients, and how should it be done? We explored the first, descriptive question in a study with Norwegian oncologists as participants. The study had a scenario and a survey part. In the scenario part, the doctors should imagine that a patient, recently diagnosed with a serious cancer diagnosis, has asked them: ‘How long can I expect to live with such a diagnosis? I want an honest answer from you!’ The doctors should assume that the diagnosis is certain, and that from an extensive recent study they had optimal statistical knowledge, described in detail as a right-skewed survival curve, about how long such patients with this kind of diagnosis could be expected to live. The main finding was that very few of the oncologists would explain to the patient the variation in survival time as described by the survival curve. The majority would not give the patient an answer at all. Of those who gave an answer, the typical answer was that survival time varies a lot, that it is hard to say in a specific case, that we will come back to it later etc. The survey part of the study clearly indicates that the main reason why the oncologists would not deliver the mortality prognosis was discomfort with its uncertainty. The scenario part of the study confirmed this finding. The majority of the oncologists explicitly used the uncertainty, the variation in survival time, as a reason to not give the patient an answer. Many studies show that patients want realistic information about their mortality prognosis, and that they should be given hope. The question then is how to communicate the uncertainty of the prognosis in a realistic and optimistic – hopeful – way. Based on psychological research, our hypothesis is that the best way to do this is by explicitly describing the variation in survival time, the (usually) right skewed survival curve of the prognosis, and emphasize to the patient the (small) possibility of being a ‘lucky outlier’. We tested this hypothesis in two scenario studies with lay people as participants. The data clearly show that people prefer to receive expected survival time as a median value together with explicit information about the survival curve’s right skewedness (e.g., concrete examples of ‘positive outliers’), and that communicating expected survival time this way not only provides people with hope, but also gives them a more realistic understanding compared with the typical way expected survival time is communicated. Our data indicate that it is not the existence of the uncertainty regarding the mortality prognosis that is the problem for patients, but how this uncertainty is, or is not, communicated and explained.

Keywords: cancer patients, decision psychology, doctor-patient communication, mortality prognosis

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Authors: Raymond Treacy, Paul Humphreys, Ronan McIvor, Trevor Cadden, Alan McKittrick

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This study employed event study methodology to examine the role of institutions, resources and dynamic capabilities in the relationship between the Environmental Management System ISO 14001 adoption and firm performance. Utilising financial data from 140 ISO 14001 certified firms and 320 non-certified firms, the results of the study suggested that the UK and Irish manufacturers were not implementing ISO 14001 solely to gain legitimacy. In contrast, the results demonstrated that firms were fully integrating the ISO 14001 standard within their operations as certified firms were able to improve both financial and operating performance when compared to non-certified firms. However, while there were significant and long lasting improvements for employee productivity, manufacturing cost efficiency, return on assets and sales turnover, the sample firms operating cycle and fixed asset efficiency displayed evidence of diminishing returns in the long-run, underlying the observation that no operating advantage based on incremental improvements can be everlasting. Hence, there is an argument for investing in dynamic capabilities which help renew and refresh the resource base and help the firm adapt to changing environments. Indeed, the results of the regression analysis suggest that dynamic capabilities for innovation acted as a moderator in the relationship between ISO 14001 certification and firm performance. This, in turn, will have a significant and symbiotic influence on sustainability practices within the participating organisations. The study not only provides new and original insights, but demonstrates pragmatically how firms can take advantage of environmental management systems as a moderator to significantly enhance firm performance. However, while it was shown that firm innovation aided both short term and long term ROA performance, adaptive market capabilities only aided firms in the short-term at the marketing strategy deployment stage. Finally, the results have important implications for firms operating in an economic recession as the results suggest that firms should scale back investment in R&D while operating in an economic downturn. Conversely, under normal trading conditions, consistent and long term investments in R&D was found to moderate the relationship between ISO 14001 certification and firm performance. Hence, the results of the study have important implications for academics and management alike.

Keywords: supply chain management, environmental management systems, quality management, sustainability, firm performance

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Authors: Ali Kadivar, Kaveh Niayesh

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The integration of green energy resources is a major focus, and the role of Medium Voltage Direct Current (MVDC) systems is exponentially expanding. However, the protection of MVDC systems against DC faults is a challenge that can have consequences on reliable and safe grid operation. This challenge reveals the need for MVDC circuit breakers (MVDC CB), which are in infancies of their improvement. Therefore will be a lack of MVDC CBs standards, including thresholds for acceptable power losses and operation speed. To establish a baseline for comparison purposes, a benchmark system for testing future MVDC CBs is vital. The literatures just give the timing sequence of each switch and the emphasis is on the topology, without in-depth study on the control algorithm of DCCB, as the circuit breaker control system is not yet systematic. A digital testing benchmark is designed for the Proof-of-concept of simulation studies using software models. It can validate studies based on real-time digital simulators and Transient Network Analyzer (TNA) models. The proposed experimental setup utilizes data accusation from the accurate sensors installed on the tested MVDC CB and through general purpose input/outputs (GPIO) from the microcontroller and PC Prototype studies in the laboratory-based models utilizing Hardware-in-the-Loop (HIL) equipment connected to real-time digital simulators is achieved. The improved control algorithm of the circuit breaker can reduce the peak fault current and avoid arc resignation, helping the coordination of DCCB in relay protection. Moreover, several research gaps are identified regarding case studies and evaluation approaches.

Keywords: DC circuit breaker, hardware-in-the-loop, real time digital simulation, testing benchmark

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Authors: Babatope David Omoniyi, Fiona Lalor, Sinead Furey

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This ongoing project investigates the impact of Brexit on consumer perceptions of trust in the food industry. Brexit has significantly impacted the food industry, triggering a paradigm shift in the movement of food/agricultural produce, regulations, and cross-border collaborations between Great Britain, Northern Ireland, and the Republic of Ireland. In a world where the dynamics have shifted because of regulatory changes that impact trade and the free movement of foods and agricultural produce between these three countries, monitoring and controlling every stage of the food supply chain have become challenging, increasing the potential for food fraud and food safety incidents. As consumers play a pivotal role in shaping the market, understanding any shifts in trust post-Brexit enables them to navigate the market with confidence and awareness. This study aims to explore the complexities of consumer perceptions, focusing on trust as a cornerstone of consumer confidence in the post-Brexit food landscape. The objectives include comparing trust in official controls pre- and post-Brexit, determining consumer awareness of food fraud, and devising recommendations that reflect the evidence from this primary research regarding consumer trust in food authenticity post-Brexit. The research design follows an exploratory sequential mixed methods approach, incorporating qualitative methods such as focus groups and structured interviews, along with quantitative research through a large-scale survey. Participants from UCD and Ulster University campuses, comprising academic and non-academic staff, students, and researchers, will provide insights into the impact of Brexit on consumer trust. Preliminary findings from focus groups and interviews highlight changes in labelling, reduced quantity and quality of foods in both Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, fewer food choices, and increased food prices since Brexit. The study aims to further investigate and quantify these impacts through a comprehensive large-scale survey involving participants from Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. The results will inform official controls and consumer-facing messaging contributing valuable insights to navigate the evolving post-Brexit food landscape.

Keywords: Brexit, consumer trust, food fraud, food authenticity, food safety, food industry

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Authors: Miraji H. Mohamed

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The purpose of this study is to critique ‘radicalisation’ and more particularly ‘youth radicalisation’ by exploring its usage in online newspapers. ‘Radicalisation’ and ‘extremism’ have become the most common terms in terrorism studies since the 9/11 attacks. Regardless of the geographic location, when the word terrorism is used the terms ‘radicalisation’ and ‘extremism’ always follow to attempt to explore the journey of the perpetrators towards violence. These terms have come to represent a discourse of dominantly pejorative traits often used to describe spaces, groups, and processes identified as problematic. Even though ambiguously defined they feature widely in government documents, political statements, news articles, academic research, social media platforms, religious gatherings, and public discussions. Notably, ‘radicalisation’ and ‘extremism’ have been closely conflated with the term youth to form ‘youth radicalisation’ to refer to a discourse of ‘youth at risk’. The three terms largely continue to be used unquestioningly and interchangeably hence the reason why they are placed in single quotation marks to deliberately question their conventional usage. Albeit this comes timely in the Kenyan context where there has been a proliferation of academic and expert research on ‘youth radicalisation’ (used as a neutral label) without considering the political, cultural and socio-historical contexts that inform this label. This study seeks to draw these nuances by employing a genealogical approach that historicises and deconstructs ‘youth radicalisation’; and by applying a Discourse-Historical Approach (DHA) of Critical Discourse Analysis to analyse Kenyan online newspaper - The Daily Nation between 2015 and 2018. By applying the concept of representation to analyse written texts, the study reveals that the use of ‘youth radicalisation’ as a discursive strategy disproportionately affects young people especially those from cultural/ethnic/religious minority groups. Also, the ambiguous use of ‘radicalisation’ and ‘youth radicalisation’ by the media reinforces the discourse of ‘youth at risk’ which has become the major framework underpinning Countering Violent Extremism (CVE) interventions. Similarly, the findings indicate that the uncritical use of ‘youth radicalisation’ has been used to serve political interests; and has become an instrument of policing young people, thus contributing to their cultural shaping. From this, it is evident that the media could thwart rather than assist CVE efforts. By exposing the political nature of the three terms through evidence-based research, this study offers recommendations on how critical reflective reporting by the media could help to make CVE more nuanced.

Keywords: discourse, extremism, radicalisation, terrorism, youth

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Authors: Yuri V. Bykov, V. A. Baturin

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Aim of the study: The aim of the study was to perform a comparative analysis of the levels of autoantibodies (AAB) to the S-100 protein as well as to the dopamine and NMDA receptors in children with type 1 diabetes mellitus (DM) in therapeutic remission. Materials and methods: Blood serum obtained from 42 children ages 4 to 17 years (20 boys and 22 girls) was analyzed. Twenty-one of these children had a diagnosis of type 1 DM and were in therapeutic remission (study group). The mean duration of disease in children with type 1 DM was 9.6±0.36 years. Children without DM were included in a group of "apparently healthy children" (21 children, comparison group). AAB to the S-100 protein, the dopamine, and NMDA receptors were measured by ELISA. The normal range of IgG AAB was specified as up to 10 µg/mL. In order to compare the central parameters of the groups, the following parametric and non-parametric methods were used: Student's t-test or Mann-Whitney U test. The level of significance for inter-group comparisons was set at p<0.05. Results: The mean levels of AAB to the S-100B protein were significantly higher (p=0.0045) in children with DM (16.84±1.54 µg/mL) when compared with "apparently healthy children" (2.09±0.05 µg/mL). The detected elevated levels of AAB to NMDA receptors may indicate that in children with type 1 DM, there is a change in the activity of the glutamatergic system, which in its turn suggests the presence of excitotoxicity. The mean levels of AAB to dopamine receptors were higher (p=0.0082) in patients comprising the study group than in the children of the comparison group (40.47±2.31 µg/mL and 3.91±0.09 µg/mL). The detected elevated levels of AAB to dopamine receptors suggest an altered activity of the dopaminergic system in children with DM. This can also be viewed as indirect evidence of altered activity of the brain's glutamatergic system. The mean levels of AAB to NMDA receptors were higher in patients with type 1 DM compared with the "apparently healthy children," at 13.16±2.07 µg/mL and 1.304±0.05 µg/mL, respectively (p=0.0021). The elevated mean levels of AAB to the S-100B protein may indicate damage to brain tissue in children with type 1 DM. A difference was also detected between the mean values of the measured AABs, and this difference depended on the duration of the disease: mean AAB values were significantly higher in patients whose disease had lasted more than five years. Conclusions: The elevated mean levels of AAB to the S-100B protein may indicate damage to brain tissue in the setting of excitotoxicity in children with type 1 DM. The discovered elevation of the levels of AAB to NMDA and dopamine receptors may indicate the activation of the glutamatergic and dopaminergic systems. The observed abnormalities indicate the presence of central nervous system damage in children with type 1 DM, with a tendency towards the elevation of the levels of the studied AABs with disease progression.

Keywords: autoantibodies, brain damage, children, diabetes mellitus

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Authors: Emma Van Schie

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The purpose of this study is to use mixed methods research to create typologies of the performance of firms in the cotton-to-clothing value chain in Zimbabwe, and to use these typologies to achieve the objective of adding to the small pool of studies on Sub-Saharan African value chains performing in the context of economic liberalisation and achieving development. The uptake of economic liberalisation measures across Sub-Saharan Africa has led to the restructuring of many value chains. While this action has resulted in some African economies positively reintegrating into global commodity chains, it has also been deeply problematic for the development impacts of the majority of others. Over and above this, these nations have been placed at a disadvantage due to the fact that there is little scholarly and policy research on approaches for managing economic liberalisation and value chain development in the unique African context. As such, the central question facing these less successful cases is how they can integrate into the world economy whilst still fostering their development. This paper draws from quantitative questionnaires and qualitative interviews with 28 stakeholders in the cotton-to-clothing value chain in Zimbabwe. This paper examines the performance of firms in the value chain, and the subsequent local socio-economic development impacts that are affected by the revival of the cotton-to-clothing value chain following its collapse in the wake of Zimbabwe’s uptake of economic liberalisation measures. Firstly, the paper finds the relatively undocumented characteristics and structures of firms in the value chain in the post-economic liberalisation era. As well as this, it finds typologies of the status of firms as either being in operation, closed down, or being placed under judicial management and the common characteristics that these typologies hold. The key findings show how a mixture of macro and local level aspects, such as value chain governance and the management structure of a business, leads to the most successful typology that is able to add value to the chain in the context of economic liberalisation, and thus unlock its socioeconomic development potential. These typologies are used in making industry and policy recommendations on achieving this balance between the macro and the local level, as well as recommendations for further academic research for more typologies and models on the case of cotton value chains in Sub-Saharan Africa. In doing so, this study adds to the small collection of academic evidence and policy recommendations for the challenges that African nations face when trying to incorporate into global commodity chains in attempts to benefit from their associated socioeconomic development opportunities.

Keywords: cotton-to-clothing value chain, economic liberalisation, restructuring value chain, typologies of firms, value chain governance, Zimbabwe

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Authors: Kita R. Ashman, Anthony R. Rendall, Matthew R. E. Symonds, Desley A. Whisson

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Forest cover is decreasing globally, chiefly due to the conversion of forest to agricultural landscapes. In contrast, the area under plantation forestry is increasing significantly. For wildlife occupying landscapes where native forest is the dominant land cover, plantations generally represent a lower value habitat; however, plantations established on land formerly used for pasture may benefit wildlife by providing temporary forest habitat and increasing connectivity. This study investigates the influence of landscape, site, and climatic factors on koala population density in far south-west Victoria where there has been extensive plantation establishment. We conducted koala surveys and habitat characteristic assessments at 72 sites across three habitat types: plantation, native vegetation blocks, and native vegetation strips. We employed a hierarchical modeling framework for estimating abundance and constructed candidate multinomial N-mixture models to identify factors influencing the abundance of koalas. We detected higher mean koala density in plantation sites (0.85 per ha) than in either native block (0.68 per ha) or native strip sites (0.66 per ha). We found five covariates of koala density and using these variables, we spatially modeled koala abundance and discuss factors that are key in determining large-scale distribution and density of koala populations. We provide a distribution map that can be used to identify high priority areas for population management as well as the habitat of high conservation significance for koalas. This information facilitates the linkage of ecological theory with the on-ground implementation of management actions and may guide conservation planning and resource management actions to consider overall landscape configuration as well as the spatial arrangement of plantations adjacent to the remnant forest.

Keywords: abundance modelling, arboreal mammals plantations, wildlife conservation

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Authors: Anastasios Ntousas

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The purpose of the following paper is to analyze the relationship between the lexical quality and the self-teaching hypothesis and their impact on the reading ability. The following questions emerged, is there a correlation between the effective reading experience that the lexical quality hypothesis proposes and the self-teaching hypothesis, would the ability to read by analogy facilitate and create stable, synchronized four-word representational, and would word morphological knowledge be a possible extension of the self-teaching hypothesis. The lexical quality hypothesis speculates that words include four representational attributes, phonology, orthography, morpho-syntax, and meaning. Those four-word representations work together to make word reading an effective task. A possible lack of knowledge in one of the representations might disrupt reading comprehension. The degree that the four-word features connect together makes high and low lexical word quality representations. When the four-word representational attributes connect together effectively, readers have a high lexical quality of words; however, when they hardly have a strong connection with each other, readers have a low lexical quality of words. Furthermore, the self-teaching hypothesis proposes that phonological recoding enables printed word learning. Phonological knowledge and reading experience facilitate the acquisition and consolidation of specific-word orthographies. The reading experience is related to strong reading comprehension. The more readers have contact with texts, the better readers they become. Therefore, their phonological knowledge, as the self-teaching hypothesis suggests, might have a facilitative impact on the consolidation of the orthographical, morphological-syntax and meaning representations of unknown words. The phonology of known words might activate effectively the rest of the representational features of words. Readers use their existing phonological knowledge of similarly spelt words to pronounce unknown words; a possible transference of this ability to read by analogy will appear with readers’ morphological knowledge. Morphemes might facilitate readers’ ability to pronounce and spell new unknown words in which they do not have lexical access. Readers will encounter unknown words with similarly phonemes and morphemes but with different meanings. Knowledge of phonology and morphology might support and increase reading comprehension. There was a careful selection, discussion of theoretical material and comparison of the two existing theories. Evidence shows that morphological knowledge improves reading ability and comprehension, so morphological knowledge might be a possible extension of the self-teaching hypothesis, the fundamental skill to read by analogy can be implemented to the consolidation of word – specific orthographies via readers’ morphological knowledge, and there is a positive correlation between effective reading experience and self-teaching hypothesis.

Keywords: morphology, orthography, reading ability, reading comprehension

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Authors: Lydia Murugi Mugendi

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The promotion of tree growing as a lucrative enterprise is the focus of this paper as management practices have shifted focus from protection of natural forest resources to community/government partnerships with the aim of resource conservation, management and increase of on-farm tree growing. Using KEFRI as (the source) of information pertaining Melia volkensii (the medium or message) being transferred, this paper investigates the current perception towards forestry and the behavioural attitudes of recipients of forest intervention activities. The two objectives explored in this paper are to find out the level of adoption of Mukau in Kitui, Kibwezi and Samburu/Taru and secondly, to find out the characteristics of the adoption process between Kitui, Kibwezi and Samburu/Taru. The methodologies used during data collection were participatory rural appraisal tools in conjunction with the social survey questionnaires. Simple random sampling and snowball sampling were used to identify respondents within the three target sites and analysis was done using SPSS. Results of the study of indicating that adoption rates of the Mukau in Samburu/Taru, where forestry-related activities were introduced within the past one decade had significantly increase despite initial resistance. The other areas, which had benefited from numerous decades of intense forestry extension projects and activities, indicated a decline in re-adoption rates of Mukau as an enterprise. This study has brought out the reality of adoption trends and state of Mukau population within the three counties while providing a glimpse towards the communities’ perception in regards to adoption of forestry and other environmental innovations. The outcome of the study is to provide a guideline for extension/ dissemination officers in KEFRI and related stakeholders to promote seamless cohesive interaction between the recipient communities of the proposed interventions.

Keywords: adoption, innovation, enterprise, extension, DOI Theory

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Authors: Gebrehiwot H., Giorgis Bahita

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Firms in Africa experience less financial market in comparison to other emerging and developed countries, thus lagging behind the rest of the world in terms of innovation and growth. Though there are different factors to be considered, underdeveloped financial systems take the lion's share in hindering firm innovation and growth in Africa. Insufficient capacity to innovate is one of the problems facing African businesses. Moreover, a critical challenge faced by firms in Africa is access to finance and the inability of financially constrained firms to grow. Only little is known about how different sources of finance affect firm innovation and growth in Africa, specifically the formal and informal finance effect on firm innovation and growth. This study's aim is to address this gap by using formal and informal finance for working capital and fixed capital and its role in firm innovation and firm growth using firm-level data from the World Bank enterprise survey 2006-2019 with a total of 5661 sample firms from 14 countries based on available data on the selected variables. Additionally, this study examines factors for accessing credit from a formal financial institution. The logit model is used to examine the effect of finance on a firm’s innovation and factors to access formal finance, while the Ordinary List Square (OLS) regression mode is used to investigate the effect of finance on firm growth. 2SLS instrumental variables are used to address the possible endogeneity problem in firm growth and finance-innovation relationships. A result from the logistic regression indicates that both formal and informal finance used for working capital and investment in fixed capital was found to have a significant positive association with product and process innovation. In the case of finance and growth, finding show that positive association of both formal and informal financing to working capital and new investment in fixed capital though the informal has positive relations to firm growth as measured by sale growth but no significant association as measured by employment growth. Formal finance shows more magnitude of effect on innovation and growth when firms use formal finance to finance investment in fixed capital, while informal finance show less compared to formal finance and this confirms previous studies as informal is mainly used for working capital in underdeveloped economies like Africa. The factors that determine credit access: Age, firm size, managerial experience, exporting, gender, and foreign ownership are found to have significant determinant factors in accessing credit from formal and informal sources among the selected sample countries.

Keywords: formal finance, informal finance, innovation, growth

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Authors: Merve Denizci Nazligul

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Dancers seem to have much higher risk levels for the development of eating disorders, compared to non-dancing counterparts. In a remarkably competitive nature of dance environment, perfectionism and emotion regulation difficulties become inevitable risk factors. Moreover, early maladaptive schemas are associated with various eating disorders. In the current study, it was aimed to investigate the mediating role of difficulties with emotion regulation on the relationship between perfectionism and disordered eating behaviors, as well as on the relationship between early maladaptive schemas and disordered eating behaviors. A total of 70 volunteer dancers (n = 47 women, n = 23 men) were recruited in the study (M age = 25.91, SD = 8.9, range 19–63) from the university teams or private clubs in Turkey. The sample included various types of dancers (n = 26 ballets or ballerinas, n =32 Latin, n = 10 tango, n = 2 hiphop). The mean dancing hour per week was 11.09 (SD = 7.09) within a range of 1-30 hours. The participants filled a questionnaire set including demographic information form, Dutch Eating Behavior Questionnaire, Multidimensional Perfectionism Scale, three subscales (Emotional Inhibition, Unrelenting Standards-Hypercriticalness, Approval Seeking-Recognition Seeking) from Young Schema Questionnaire-Short Form-3 and Difficulties in Emotion Regulation Scale. The mediation hypotheses were tested using the PROCESS macro in SPSS. The findings revealed that emotion regulation difficulties significantly mediated the relationship between three distinct subtypes of perfectionism and emotional eating. The results of the Sobel test suggested that there were significant indirect effects of self-oriented perfectionism (b = .06, 95% CI = .0084, .1739), other-oriented perfectionism (b = .15, 95% CI = .0136, .4185), and socially prescribed perfectionism (b = .09, 95% CI = .0104, .2344) on emotional eating through difficulties with emotion regulation. Moreover, emotion regulation difficulties significantly mediated the relationship between emotional inhibition and emotional eating (F(1,68) = 4.67, R2 = .06, p < .05). These results seem to provide some evidence that perfectionism might become a risk factor for disordered eating behaviors when dancers are not able to regulate their emotions. Further, gaining an understanding of how inhibition of emotions leads to inverse effects on eating behavior may be important to develop intervention strategies to manage their disordered eating patterns in risk groups. The present study may also support the importance of using unified protocols for transdiagnostic approaches which focus on identifying, accepting, prompting to express maladaptive emotions and appraisals.

Keywords: dancers, disordered eating, emotion regulation difficulties, perfectionism

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Authors: Madeleine Cox

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Objective: Discussion of diagnosis and management options for myometrial ectopic pregnancy Case: A 30 yo G1P0 presented to the emergency department with vaginal bleeding for the last 4 days. She had a positive home urine pregnancy test, confirmed with a serum HCG. When she presented for an ultrasound, there was no intrauterine pregnancy, no evidence of adnexal pregnancy, however, the anterior myometrium of the uterus was noted to be markedly abnormal. When she presented to the emergency department of a busy tertiary hospital in Queensland, she had a small amount of vaginal bleeding, was anxious but well, observations normal. Repeat blood testes demonstrated a serum HCG of 9246 IU/L, haemoglobin of 143g/L. The patient had an interesting history of a right oophorectomy and open myomectomy in another country. A repeat ultrasound again showed an abnormality within the myometrium of the uterus, which was initially reported as concerning for an AVM, or potentially invasive gestational trophoblastic disease. An MRI was organised 2 days later, which demonstrated a intramural/subserosal irregularity in the right lateral body measuring 35x38x42mm with peripheral enhancement and central cystic components, favouring a myometrial ectopic most likely at the site of previous myomectomy. Alternative diagnosis of AVM, GTD were considered less likely. After discussion with the patient, IV methotrexate was administered as an in patient 4 days after her initial presentation to emergency. After this, her HCG fell to 1236 IU/L on day 6 post treatment. Weekly reviews showed stable ultrasound appearances with a steadily dropping HCG level. A repeat MRI was performed 3 weeks after methotrexate administration which confirmed involution of the myometrial ectopic, however, showed ongoing progression of vascularity surrounding the site. Despite resolution of HCG, the patient persisted to have ongoing bleeding associated with this and went to have uterine artery embolisation. Follow up ultrasound showed resolution of abnormal vascularity and negative HCG levels. Conclusion: Myometrial ectopic pregnancies are a rare occurrence and require a multidisciplinary approach to achieve timely management for these patients. This patient was in a very well resourced setting with excellent access to Interventional Radiology and specialist Radiologists who could work together with the Obstetrics, Gynaecology, and Maternal Fetal Medicine team to provide multiple options of management which preserved her fertility. This case has a very good outcome, with the patient being referred back to our service 12 months later with an early intrauterine pregnancy.

Keywords: ectopic, pregnancy, miscarriage, gynaecology

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Authors: Iuliana-Erika Köpeczi

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‘Language is no longer regarded as peripheral to our grasp of the world we live in, but as central to it. Words are not mere vocal labels or communicational adjuncts superimposed upon an already given order of things. They are collective products of social interaction, essential instruments through which human beings constitute and articulate their world’, said Roy Harris. If we were to accept the above-mentioned premise, then we surely must accept that discourse, generally, - and political discourse, specifically -, bears a crucial importance to one’s perception of reality. The way in which political rhetoric constructs reality changes the relationship between the voter and his/her view of the world, which, in turn, influences greatly the future trends of political participation. In this context, our inquiry focuses on the role of populist discourses in the post 9/11 political rhetoric, and how this led to the formation, construction and reconstruction of identity within the ‘us’ vs. ‘them’ dichotomy. It is our hypothesis that anti-intellectualistic elements played a significant role in the manner in which identity construction had been carried out on a discursive level. By adopting a comparative approach, we intend to identify the similarities and differences between the use of such anti-intellectualist elements in the United States of America on one hand – within the discourse of Rick Santorum, – and France on the other – with Marine le Pen’s discourse. Our methodological approach uses close textual analysis of primary source material (discourse analysis); historical contextualization of both primary documents and broader socio-political and cultural framework through archival research and secondary sources; as well as interpretation of primary texts through theoretical frameworks (qualitative research). We hope that the output of our endeavor will be useful in better understanding the different correlations that exist between anti-intellectualism and populism and how the interactions between these two elements aids in political identity construction through discourse.

Keywords: anti-intellectualism, discourse theory, France, identity construction, populism, United States of America

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Authors: Kgopa Bontle, Tholen Sodi

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Climate change poses a major threat to the well-being of both people and the environment, with subsistence farmers most affected as they rely on local supply systems that are sensitive to climate variation. This study documented psychological resilience factors associated with climate change adaptations by subsistence farmers in Maruleng Municipality, Limpopo Province. A qualitative study was conducted to examine the notions of climate change by subsistence farmers, the psychological resilience factors, the strategies to cope with climate change, adaptation methods, and the development of subsistence farmers’ psychological resilience factors model. Data were collected through direct interactions with participants using a grounded theory research design. An open-ended interview was used to collect data with a sample of 15 participants selected through theoretical sampling in Maruleng Municipality. The participants were both Sepedi and Xitsonga speaking from 2 villages, mostly unemployed, pensioners and dependent on social grants. The study included both males and females who were predominately the elderly. The research findings indicate that farmers have limited knowledge of what climate change is and what causes it. Furthermore, the research reflects that although their responses were non-scientific but sensible enough to know what they were dealing with. They mentioned extreme weather, which includes hot days and less rainfall and changes in seasons, as some of the impacts brought by climate change. The results also indicated that participants have learned to adapt through several adaptation strategies, including mulching, changes in irrigation time slots and being innovative. The resilience factors that emerged from the study were a passion for farming, hope, enthusiasm, courage, acceptance/tolerance, livelihood and belief systems. Looking at the socio-economic factors of the current study setting argumentation leads to the conclusion that it is important that government should assist the subsistence farmers as it was observed from the participants that they felt neglected by the government and policymakers as they are small scale farmers and are not included like commercial farmers.

Keywords: climate change, psychological resilience factors, human adaptation, subsistence farmers

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Authors: Balakumar Pitchai, Xiang Llan Ang, Sunil Prajapati, Varatharajan Rajavel, Sundram Karupiah, Mohd Baidi Bahari

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The study examined the pretreatment and post-treatment effects of low-doses of fenofibrate and rosuvastatin in gentamicin-induced acute nephrotoxicity in rats. Gentamicin (100 mg/kg/day, i.p.) was administered to rats for 8 days. In the pretreatment protocol, low-dose fenofibrate (30 mg/kg/day, p.o.) or low-dose rosuvastatin (2 mg/kg/day, p.o.) treatments were started a day before the administration of gentamicin and continued for 8 days. In the post-treatment protocol, rats administered gentamicin were treated with low-dose fenofibrate (30 mg/kg/day, p.o.) or low-dose rosuvastatin (2 mg/kg/day, p.o.) for 6 days after the completion of 8 days protocol of gentamicin administration. Gentamicin-associated acute nephrotoxicity in rats was assessed in terms of biochemical analysis and renal histopathological studies. Gentamicin-administered rats showed marked renal functional changes as assessed in terms of a significant increase in serum creatinine and urea levels as compared to normal rats. The renal dysfunction noted in gentamicin administered rats was accompanied with elevated serum uric acid level as compared to normal rats while there was no significant change in lipid profile. Low-dose fenofibrate pretreatment in gentamicin-administered rats afforded a significant renal functional improvements and renoprotection while its post-treatment showed no significant renoprotection. On the other hand, pretreatment with low-dose rosuvastatin partially reduced gentamicin-induced increase in serum creatinine level, but its post-treatment did not afford renal functional improvements in gentamicin-administered rats. However, all pre and post-treatments with low-doses of fenofibrate or rosuvastatin significantly reduced the elevated serum uric acid concentration in gentamicin-administered rats. Renal histopathological analysis showed a discernible incidence of acute tubular necrosis in gentamicin-administered rats which were markedly reduced by low-dose fenofibrate or low-dose rosuvastatin pretreatments; but, not by their post-treatments. In conclusion, low-dose fenofibrate pretreatment considerably prevented gentamicin-induced acute tubular necrosis and renal functional abnormalities in rats while its post-treatment resulted in no significant renoprotective action. In spite of effective prevention of gentamicin-induced acute tubular necrosis, the pretreatment with low-dose rosuvastatin had only a partial and fractional protection on renal functional abnormalities. The post-treatment with low-dose rosuvastatin was ineffective in affording a renoprotection in gentamicin-administered rats.

Keywords: gentamicin-nephrotoxicity, low-dose fenofibrate, low-dose rosuvastatin, renoprotection

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Authors: Yegnanew A. Shiferaw

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Background: commodity price volatility originating from excessive commodity price fluctuation has been a global problem especially after the recent financial crises. Volatility is a measure of risk or uncertainty in financial analysis. It plays a vital role in risk management, portfolio management, and pricing equity. Objectives: the core objective of this paper is to examine the relationship between the prices of agricultural commodities with oil price, gas price, coal price and exchange rate (USD/Rand). In addition, the paper tries to fit an appropriate model that best describes the log return price volatility and estimate Value-at-Risk and expected shortfall. Data and methods: the data used in this study are the daily returns of agricultural commodity prices from 02 January 2007 to 31st October 2016. The data sets consists of the daily returns of agricultural commodity prices namely: white maize, yellow maize, wheat, sunflower, soya, corn, and sorghum. The paper applies the three-state Markov-switching (MS) regression, the standard single-regime GARCH and the two regime Markov-switching GARCH (MS-GARCH) models. Results: to choose the best fit model, the log-likelihood function, Akaike information criterion (AIC), Bayesian information criterion (BIC) and deviance information criterion (DIC) are employed under three distributions for innovations. The results indicate that: (i) the price of agricultural commodities was found to be significantly associated with the price of coal, price of natural gas, price of oil and exchange rate, (ii) for all agricultural commodities except sunflower, k=3 had higher log-likelihood values and lower AIC and BIC values. Thus, the three-state MS regression model outperformed the two-state MS regression model (iii) MS-GARCH(1,1) with generalized error distribution (ged) innovation performs best for white maize and yellow maize; MS-GARCH(1,1) with student-t distribution (std) innovation performs better for sorghum; MS-gjrGARCH(1,1) with ged innovation performs better for wheat, sunflower and soya and MS-GARCH(1,1) with std innovation performs better for corn. In conclusion, this paper provided a practical guide for modelling agricultural commodity prices by MS regression and MS-GARCH processes. This paper can be good as a reference when facing modelling agricultural commodity price problems.

Keywords: commodity prices, MS-GARCH model, MS regression model, South Africa, volatility

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Authors: Erica Lima

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The objective of this paper is to discuss relevant points about teaching translation in Brazilian universities and the possible impacts of blogs and social networks to translator education today. It is intended to analyze the curricula of Brazilian translation courses, contrasting them to information obtained from two social networking groups of great visibility in the area concerning essential characteristics to become a successful profession. Therefore, research has, as its main corpus, a few undergraduate translation programs’ syllabuses, as well as a few postings on social networks groups that specifically share professional opinions regarding the necessity for a translator to obtain a degree in translation to practice the profession. To a certain extent, such comments and their corresponding responses lead to the propagation of discourses which influence the ideas that aspiring translators and recent graduates end up having towards themselves and their undergraduate courses. The postings also show that many professionals do not have a clear position regarding the translator education; while refuting it, they also encourage “free” courses. It is thus observed that cyberspace constitutes, on the one hand, a place of mobilization of people in defense of similar ideas. However, on the other hand, it embodies a place of tension and conflict, in view of the fact that there are many participants and, as in any other situation of interlocution, disagreements may arise. From the postings, aspects related to professionalism were analyzed (including discussions about regulation), as well as questions about the classic dichotomies: theory/practice; art/technique; self-education/academic training. As partial result, the common interest regarding the valorization of the profession could be mentioned, although there is no consensus on the essential characteristics to be a good translator. It was also possible to observe that the set of socially constructed representations in the group reflects characteristics of the world situation of the translation courses (especially in some European countries and in the United States), which, in the first instance, does not accurately reflect the Brazilian idiosyncrasies of the area.

Keywords: cyberspace, teaching translation, translator education, university

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Authors: Natalia Rudeli, Elisabeth Viles, Adrian Santilli

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Delays in the construction industry are a global phenomenon. Many construction projects experience extensive delays exceeding the initially estimated completion time. The main purpose of this study is to identify construction projects typical behaviors in order to develop a prognosis and management tool. Being able to know a construction projects schedule tendency will enable evidence-based decision-making to allow resolutions to be made before delays occur. This study presents an innovative approach that uses Cluster Analysis Method to support predictions during Earned Value Analyses. A clustering analysis was used to predict future scheduling, Earned Value Management (EVM), and Earned Schedule (ES) principal Indexes behaviors in construction projects. The analysis was made using a database with 90 different construction projects. It was validated with additional data extracted from literature and with another 15 contrasting projects. For all projects, planned and executed schedules were collected and the EVM and ES principal indexes were calculated. A complete linkage classification method was used. In this way, the cluster analysis made considers that the distance (or similarity) between two clusters must be measured by its most disparate elements, i.e. that the distance is given by the maximum span among its components. Finally, through the use of EVM and ES Indexes and Tukey and Fisher Pairwise Comparisons, the statistical dissimilarity was verified and four clusters were obtained. It can be said that construction projects show an average delay of 35% of its planned completion time. Furthermore, four typical behaviors were found and for each of the obtained clusters, the interim milestones and the necessary rhythms of construction were identified. In general, detected typical behaviors are: (1) Projects that perform a 5% of work advance in the first two tenths and maintain a constant rhythm until completion (greater than 10% for each remaining tenth), being able to finish on the initially estimated time. (2) Projects that start with an adequate construction rate but suffer minor delays culminating with a total delay of almost 27% of the planned time. (3) Projects which start with a performance below the planned rate and end up with an average delay of 64%, and (4) projects that begin with a poor performance, suffer great delays and end up with an average delay of a 120% of the planned completion time. The obtained clusters compose a tool to identify the behavior of new construction projects by comparing their current work performance to the validated database, thus allowing the correction of initial estimations towards more accurate completion schedules.

Keywords: cluster analysis, construction management, earned value, schedule

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Authors: Farzam Fatolazadeh, Kalifa Goita, Mehdi Eshagh, Shusen Wang

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The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) is a satellite mission with twin satellites for the precise determination of spatial and temporal variations in the Earth’s gravity field. The products of this mission are monthly global gravity models containing the spherical harmonic coefficients and their errors. These GRACE models can be used for estimating terrestrial water storage (TWS) variations across the globe at large scales, thereby offering an opportunity for surface and groundwater storage (GWS) assessments. Yet, the ability of GRACE to monitor changes at smaller scales is too limited for local water management authorities. This is largely due to the low spatial and temporal resolutions of its models (~200,000 km2 and one month, respectively). High-resolution GRACE data products would substantially enrich the information that is needed by local-scale decision-makers while offering the data for the regions that lack adequate in situ monitoring networks, including northern parts of Canada. Such products could eventually be obtained through downscaling. In this study, we extended the spectral combination theory to simultaneously downscale spatiotemporally the 3o spatial coarse resolution of GRACE to 0.25o degrees resolution and monthly coarse resolution to daily resolution. This method combines the monthly gravity field solution of GRACE and daily hydrological model products in the form of both low and high-frequency signals to produce high spatiotemporal resolution TWSA and GWSA products. The main contribution and originality of this study are to comprehensively and simultaneously consider GRACE and hydrological variables and their uncertainties to form the estimator in the spectral domain. Therefore, it is predicted that we reach downscale products with an acceptable accuracy.

Keywords: GRACE satellite, groundwater storage, spectral combination, terrestrial water storage

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