Search results for: risk and safety

Authors: Debabrata Biswas

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The current trend in the development of antibiotic resistance by multiple bacterial pathogens has resulted in a troubling loss of effective antibiotic options for human. The emergence of multi-drug-resistant pathogens has necessitated higher dosages and combinations of multiple antibiotics, further exacerbating the problem of antibiotic resistance. Zoonotic bacterial pathogens, such as Salmonella, Campylobacter, Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (such as enterohaemorrhagic E. coli or EHEC), and Listeria are the most common and predominant foodborne enteric infectious agents. It was observed that these pathogens gained/developed their ability to survive in the presence of antibiotics either in farm animal gut or farm environment and researchers believe that therapeutic and sub-therapeutic antibiotic use in farm animal production might play an important role in it. The mechanism of action of antimicrobial components used in farm animal production in genomic interplay in the gut and farm environment, has not been fully characterized. Even the risk of promoting the exchange of mobile genetic elements between microbes specifically pathogens needs to be evaluated in depth, to ensure sustainable farm animal production, safety of our food and to mitigate/limit the enteric infection with multiple antibiotic resistant bacterial pathogens. Due to the consumer’s demand and considering the current emerging situation, many countries are in process to withdraw antibiotic use in farm animal production. Before withdrawing use of the sub-therapeutic antibiotic or restricting the use of therapeutic antibiotics in farm animal production, it is essential to find alternative natural antimicrobials for promoting the growth of farm animal and/or treating animal diseases. Further, it is also necessary to consider whether that compound(s) has the potential to trigger the acquisition or loss of genetic materials in zoonotic and any other bacterial pathogens. Development of alternative therapeutic and sub-therapeutic antimicrobials for farm animal production and food processing and preservation and their effective implementation for sustainable strategies for farm animal production as well as the possible risk for horizontal gene transfer in major enteric pathogens will be focus in the study.

Keywords: food safety, natural antimicrobial, sustainable farming, antibiotic resistance

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Authors: Saleh Alzahrani, Halim Boussabaine

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The majority of Public Private Partnership (PPP) are developed based on the rationale that the design, construction, operation, and financing of a public project is to be awarded to a private party within a single contractual framework. PPP project risks normally include the development and construction of a new asset as well as its operation for decades. Undoubtedly the most serious consequences of risks during the construction period are price and time overruns. These events are amongst the most broadly used scenarios in value for money analysis risks. The sources of risk change over the life cycle of a PPP project. In traditional procurement, the public sector normally has to cover all price distress from these risks. At least there is plenty evidence to suggest that price distress is a norm in some of the projects that are delivered under traditional procurement. This paper will find the impact of construction risk factors into actual construction price into PPP projects. The paper will present a brief literature review on PPP risk pricing strategies, and then using system dynamics (SD) to analyses of the risks associated with the estimated project price. Based on the finding from these analyses a risk pricing association model is presented and discussed. The paper concludes with thoughts for future research.

Keywords: Public Private Partnership (PPP), Risk, Risk Pricing, System Dynamics (SD), construction price

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Authors: Elysa V. Largo, Lormaine Anne A. Branzuela, Julie Marisol D. Pagalilauan, Neil C. Concibido, Monet Concepcion M. Detras

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The energy demand in the country is increasing; thus, nuclear energy is recently mandated to add to the energy mix. The Philippines has the Bataan Nuclear Power Plant (BNPP), which can be a source of nuclear energy; however, it has not been operated since the completion of its construction. Thus, evaluating the safety of BNPP is vital. This study explored the possible deviations that may occur in the operation of a nuclear power plant with a pressurized water reactor, which is similar to BNPP, through a virtual process hazard analysis (PHA) using the hazard and operability (HAZOP) technique. Temperature, pressure, and flow were used as parameters. A total of 86 causes of various deviations were identified, wherein the primary system and line from reactor coolant pump to reactor vessel are the most critical system and node, respectively. A total of 348 scenarios were determined. The critical events are radioactive leaks due to nuclear meltdown and sump overflow that could lead to multiple worker fatalities, one or more public fatalities, and environmental remediation. There were existing safeguards identified; however, further recommendations were provided to have additional and supplemental barriers to reduce the risk.

Keywords: PSM, PHA, HAZOP, nuclear power plant

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Authors: Khorief Ouissem, Sassi Boudmagh Souad, Mahimoud Aissa

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The health and safety problem in the construction companies has been a major subject of research in Algeria for many years. The latest statistics of the Algerian National Social Security Fund (CNAS) shows that a third of accidents recorded at the national level are originated from construction activities. It is becoming increasingly essential and urgent to investigate and address its causes in order to find measures to overcome the deficiencies in this area. Thus, this paper takes in investigating this problem through a study conducted in the city of Skikda, Algeria. The study was carried out through questionnaire where twenty construction companies were taking into consideration. First, the study identifies the regulations and the laws related to the health and safety in the construction sector in Algeria. Then it goes on to assess and evaluate the implementation of the identified regulations in the companies selected. The result of the assessment indicates that the majority of the construction companies considered do not meet the health and safety standards and regulations. To extract the main causes of the failure of the system to control this industry, the observations and the evaluation were analyzed using the 5M or Ichikawa diagram method. This method is based on identifying the causes of the problem in terms of purpose, the list of potential causes for families. These families often correspond to 5M (Labor, Material, Methods, Middle, and Management). Finally, having identified the primary motives, the present authors propose a list of actions to move towards a more controlled and effective health and safety system for the construction industry.

Keywords: health and safety, construction industry, performance measurement, Algeria

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Authors: Montserrat Guillen, Stephania Mosquera-Lopez, Jorge Uribe

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An empirical study of market risk transmission between electricity prices in the Nord Pool interconnected market is done. Crucially, it is differentiated between risk propagation in the two tails of the price variation distribution. Thus, the downside risk from upside risk spillovers is distinguished. The results found document an asymmetric nature of risk and risk propagation in the two tails of the electricity price log variations. Risk spillovers following price increments in the market are transmitted to a larger extent than those after price reductions. Also, asymmetries related to both, the size of the transaction area and related to whether a given area behaves as a net-exporter or net-importer of electricity, are documented. For instance, on the one hand, the bigger the area of the transaction, the smaller the size of the volatility shocks that it receives. On the other hand, exporters of electricity, alongside countries with a significant dependence on renewable sources, tend to be net-transmitters of volatility to the rest of the system. Additionally, insights on the predictive power of positive and negative semivariances for future market volatility are provided. It is shown that depending on the forecasting horizon, downside and upside shocks to the market are featured by a distinctive persistence, and that upside volatility impacts more on net-importers of electricity, while the opposite holds for net-exporters.

Keywords: electricity prices, realized volatility, semivariances, volatility spillovers

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Authors: Joshua Abraham, Craig Wales

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Abstract—SIGN Guideline 122 recommends that all patients who are admitted to hospital are assessed for venous thromboembolism risk within 24 hours of admission. NHS Greater Glasgow and Clyde provide guidance on this in the form of a proforma. Patients are then subsequently prescribed either thrombo-embolic-deterrent stockings (TEDS)/low molecular weight heparin (LMWH) for the prevention of VTE based on their score. A retrospective casenote audit of a random sample of fifty oncology and trauma inpatients at the QEUH in December 2019 was performed. 90% of patients had a risk assessment conducted as evidenced by a completed proforma. In 78% of these patients, the proforma fully completed. Overall 94% of patients had some for of thromboprophylaxis prescribed in the form of TEDS or LMWH. A lack of 100% compliance against the given standards highlighted potential implications for patient safety, but also medico-legal ramifications for staff. Clinical judgement can only be relied upon if there is written documentation as evidence. Further staff education and the suggestion of a written prompt to the clerk-in documentation will hopefully improve compliance, whilst a repeat audit should demonstrate any improvement.

Keywords: Maxillofacial , Thromboembolism, Thromboprophylaxis , Prescription

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Authors: Zidane Abderrezzaq

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In contrast to recent successful developments in macro monetary policies, the modelling, measurement and management of systemic financial stability has remained problematical. Indeed, the focus of most effort has been on improving individual, rather than systemic, bank risk management; the Basel II objective has been to bring regulatory bank capital into line with the (sophisticated) banks’ assessment of their own economic capital. Even at the individual bank level there are concerns over appropriate diversification allowances, differing objectives of banks and regulators, the need for a buffer over regulatory minima, and the distinction between expected and unexpected losses (EL and UL). At the systemic level the quite complex and prescriptive content of Basel II raises dangers of ‘endogenous risk’ and procyclicality. Simulations suggest that this latter could be a serious problem. In an extension to the main analysis we study how liquidity effects interact with banking structure to produce a greater chance of systemic breakdown. We finally consider how the risk of contagion might depend on the degree of asymmetry (tiering) inherent in the structure of the banking system. A number of our results have important implications for public policy, which this paper also draws out.

Keywords: systemic stability, financial regulation, credit risk, systemic risk

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Authors: Wassamon Kun-Amornpong

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When a financial crisis occurs, there will be a law and regulatory reform in order to manage the turmoil and prevent a future crisis. One of the most important regulatory efforts to help cope with systemic risk and a financial crisis is the third version of the Basel Accord. Basel III has introduced some measures and tools (e.g., systemic risk buffer, countercyclical buffer, capital conservation buffer and liquidity risk) in order to mitigate systemic risk. Nevertheless, the effectiveness of these measures in Basel III in adequately addressing the problem of contagious runs that can quickly spread throughout the financial system is questionable. This paper seeks to contribute to the knowledge regarding the role of the Basel Accords in mitigating systemic risk. The research question is to what extent the Basel Accords can help control systemic risk in the financial markets? The paper tackles this question by analysing the concept of systemic risk. It will then examine the weaknesses of the Basel Accords before and after the Global financial crisis in 2008. Finally, it will suggest some possible solutions in order to improve the Basel Accord. The rationale of the study is the fact that academic works on systemic risk and financial crises are largely studied from economic or financial perspective. There is comparatively little research from the legal and regulatory perspective. The finding of the paper is that there are some problems in all of the three pillars of the Basel Accords. With regards to Pillar I, the risk model is excessively complex while the benefits of its complexity are doubtful. Concerning Pillar II, the effectiveness of the risk-based supervision in preventing systemic risk still depends largely upon its design and implementation. Factors such as organizational culture of the regulator and the political context within which the risk-based supervision operates might be a barrier against the success of Pillar II. Meanwhile, Pillar III could not provide adequate market discipline as market participants do not always act in a rational way. In addition, the too-big-to-fail perception reduced the incentives of the market participants to monitor risks. There has been some development in resolution measure (e.g. TLAC and MREL) which might potentially help strengthen the incentive of the market participants to monitor risks. However, those measures have some weaknesses. The paper argues that if the weaknesses in the three pillars are resolved, it can be expected that the Basel Accord could contribute to the mitigation of systemic risk in a more significant way in the future.

Keywords: Basel accords, financial regulation, risk-based supervision, systemic risk

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Authors: Tuula Heinonen, Wilhelm Gaus

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At present safety, assessment starts with animal tests although their predictivity is often poor. Even after extended human use experimental data are often judged as the core information for risk assessment. However, the best opportunity to generate true evidence is to match all available information. Cross matching methodology combines the different fields of knowledge and types of data (e.g. in-vitro and in-vivo experiments, clinical observations, clinical and epidemiological studies, and daily life observations) and gives adequate weight to individual findings. To achieve a consolidated outcome, the information from all available sources is analysed and compared with each other. If single pieces of information fit together a clear picture becomes visible. If pieces of information are inconsistent or contradictory careful consideration is necessary. 'Cross' can be understood as 'orthographic' in geometry or as 'independent' in mathematics. Results coming from different sources bring independent and; therefore, they result in new information. Independent information gives a larger contribution to evidence than results coming repeatedly from the same source. A successful example of cross matching is the assessment of Ginkgo biloba where we were able to come to the conclusive result: Ginkgo biloba leave extract is well tolerated and safe for humans.

Keywords: cross-matching, human use, safety assessment, Ginkgo biloba leave extract

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Authors: Martin Juhas, Bohuslava Juhasova, Igor Halenar, Andrej Elias

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This article deals with the possibility of increasing efficiency, reliability and safety of the system for teledosimetric data collection management and their evaluation as a part of complex study for activity “Research of data collection, their measurement and evaluation with mobile and autonomous units” within project “Research of monitoring and evaluation of non-standard conditions in the area of nuclear power plants”. Possible weaknesses in existing system are identified. A study of available cluster solutions with possibility of their deploying to analysed system is presented.

Keywords: teledosimetric data, efficiency, reliability, safety, cluster solution

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Authors: Ferawati, H. Purwanto, Y. F. Kurnia, E. Purwati

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The aim of this study was to evaluate the microbiological quality and safety of meatball obtained from five different manufacturers around Payakumbuh City, West Sumatra, Indonesia. Microbiological analysis of meatball sample resulted in aerobic plate count range from 7 log CFU/gr to 8.623 log CFU/gr, respectively. Total coliform ranges from 1.041 log Most Probable Number (MPN)/gr to 3.380 log MPN/gr, respectively. Chemical analysis of meatball sample consisted of borax and formalin content. The result of qualitative detection of borax and formalin content on all meatball samples were not detected. Thus, it remains essential to include the significance of effective hygiene practices as an important safety measure in consumer education programmes.

Keywords: borax, formalin, meatball, microbiological quality

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Authors: Chris Phan, Yong Seok Park

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The Toyota Camry is one of the best-selling cars in America. It is economical, reliable, and most importantly, safe. These attributes allowed the Camry to be the trustworthy choice when choosing dependable vehicle. However, a new finding brought question to the Camry’s safety. Since 1997, the Camry received a “good” rating on its moderate overlap front crash test through the Insurance Institute of Highway Safety. In 2012, the Insurance Institute of Highway Safety introduced a frontal small overlap crash test into the overall evaluation of vehicle occupant safety test. The 2012 Camry received a “poor” rating on this new test, while the 2015 Camry redeemed itself with a “good” rating once again. This study aims to find a possible solution that Toyota implemented to reduce the severity of a frontal small overlap crash in the Camry during a mid-cycle update. The purpose of this study is to analyze and evaluate the performance of various A-pillar shapes as energy absorbing structures in improving passenger safety in a frontal crash. First, A-pillar structures of the 2012 and 2015 Camry were modeled using CAD software, namely SolidWorks. Then, a crash test simulation using ANSYS software, was applied to the A-pillars to analyze the behavior of the structures in similar conditions. Finally, the results were compared to safety values of cabin intrusion to determine the crashworthy behaviors of both A-pillar structures by measuring total deformation. This study highlights that it is possible that Toyota improved the shape of the A-pillar in the 2015 Camry in order to receive a “good” rating from the IIHS safety evaluation once again. These findings can possibly be used to increase safety performance in future vehicles to decrease passenger injury or fatality.

Keywords: A-pillar, Crashworthiness, Design Synthesis, Finite Element Analysis

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Authors: Kgantsi B. T., Ochwelwang A. R., Mathuthu M., Jegede O. A.

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Anthropogenic activities near water bodies contribute to poor water quality, which degrades the condition of the biota and elevates the risk to human health. The Vaal River is essential in supplying Gauteng and neighboring regions of South Africa with portable water for a variety of consumers and industries. Consequently, it is necessary to monitor and assess the radioactive risk in relation to the river's water quality. This study used an inductive coupled plasma mass spectrometer (ICPMS) to analyze the radionuclide activity concentration in the Vaal River, South Africa. Along with thorium and potassium, the total uranium concentration was calculated using the isotopic content of uranium. The elemental concentration of ²³⁸U, ²³⁵U, ²³⁴U, ²³²Th, and 40K were translated into activity concentrations. To assess the water safety for all users and consumers, all values were compared to world average activity concentrations 35, 30, and 400 Bqkg⁻¹ for ²³⁸U, ²³⁴Th, and ⁴⁰K, respectively, according to the UNSCEAR report. The results will serve as a database for further monitoring and evaluation of the radionuclide from the river, taking cognisance of potential health hazards.

Keywords: Val Rivers, ICPMS, uranium, risks

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Authors: Zainul Huda, Mohammed Hani Ajani

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The design, manufacture, and operation of thin-walled pressure vessels must be based on maximum safe operating pressure and an adequate factor of safety (FoS). This research paper first reports experimental evaluation of longitudinal and hoops stresses based on working pressure as well as maximum pressure; and then includes a critical study of factor of safety (FoS) in the design of a glass fiber pressure vessel. Experimental work involved the use of measuring instruments and the readings from pressure gauges. Design calculations involved the computations of design stress and FoS; the latter was based on breaking strength of 55 MPa for the glass fiber (pressure-vessel material). The experimentally determined FoS value has been critically compared with the general FoS allowed in the design of glass fiber pressure vessels.

Keywords: thin-walled pressure vessel, hoop stress, longitudinal stress, factor of safety (FoS), fiberglass

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Authors: Zainul Huda, Mohammad Hani Ajani

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The design, manufacture, and operation of thin-walled pressure vessels must be based on maximum safe operating pressure and an adequate factor of safety (FoS). This research paper first reports experimental evaluation of longitudinal and hoops stresses based on working pressure as well as maximum pressure; and then includes a critical study of factor of safety (FoS) in the design of a glass fiber pressure vessel. Experimental work involved the use of measuring instruments and the readings from pressure gauges. Design calculations involved the computations of design stress and FoS; the latter was based on breaking strength of 55 MPa for the glass fiber (pressure-vessel material). The experimentally determined FoS value has been critically compared with the general FoS allowed in the design of glass fiber pressure vessels.

Keywords: thin-walled pressure vessel, hoop stress, longitudinal stress, factor of safety (FoS), fiberglass

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Authors: Valerie Isaak

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Background: This study explores the effectiveness of refresher training sessions of an intervention program at reducing the employees’ risk of injury due to patient violence in a forensic psychiatric hospital. Methods: The original safety intervention program that consisted of a 3 days’ workshop was conducted in the maximum-security ward of a psychiatric hospital in Israel. Ever since the original intervention, annual refreshers were conducted, highlighting one of the safety elements covered in the original intervention. The study examines the effect of the intervention program along with the refreshers over a period of 10 years in four wards. Results: Analysis of the data demonstrates that beyond the initial reduction following the original intervention, refreshers seem to have an additional positive long-term effect, reducing both the number of violent incidents and the number of actual employee injuries in a forensic psychiatric hospital. Conclusions: We conclude that such an intervention program followed by refresher training would promote employees’ wellbeing. A healthy work environment is part of management’s commitment to improving employee wellbeing at the workplace.

Keywords: wellbeing, violence at work, intervention program refreshers, public sector mental healthcare

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Authors: Bintou Jobe

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The construction sector, both in the United Kingdom (UK) and developing Anglophone West African countries, specifically The Gambia, is facing significant health and safety challenges. While the UK has established legislation and regulations to support Occupational Health and Safety (OHS) in the industry, the same level of support is lacking in developing countries. The significance of this review is to assess the extent and effectiveness of OHS legislation and regulatory reform in the construction industry, with a focus on understanding the challenges faced by both the UK and developing Anglophone West African countries. It aims to highlight the benefits of implementing an OHS management system, specifically ISO 45001. This study uses a literature review approach, synthesizing publications from the past decade and identifying common themes and best practices related to Occupational Health and Safety in the construction industry. Findings were analysed, compared, and conclusions and recommendations were drawn after developing research questions and addressing them. This comprehensive review of the literature allows for a detailed understanding of the challenges faced by the industry in both contexts. The findings of the study indicate that while the UK has established robust health and safety legislation, many UK construction companies have not fully met the standards outlined in ISO 45001. These challenges faced by the UK include poor data management, inadequate communication of best practices, insufficient training, and a lack of safety culture mirroring those observed in the developing Anglophone countries. Therefore, compliance with OHS management systems has been shown to yield benefits, including injury prevention and centralized health and safety documentation. In conclusion, the effectiveness of OHS legislation for developing Anglophone West African countries should consider the positive impact experienced by the UK. The implementation of ISO 45001 can serve as a benchmark standard and potentially inform recommendations for developing countries. The selection criteria for literature include search keywords and phrases, such as occupational health and safety challenges, The Gambia, developing countries management systems, ISO 45001, and impact and effectiveness of OHS legislation. The literature was sourced from Google Scholar, the UK Health and Safety Executive websites, and Google Advanced Search.

Keywords: ISO 45001, developing countries, occupational health and safety, UK

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Authors: Sharaf S. Omar

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In the current study, level and prevalence of deoxynivalenol (DON), aflatoxin B1 AFB1), zearalenone (ZEN), and ochratoxin A (OTA) in fried poultry eggs in Jordan was investigated. Poultry egg samples (n = 250) were collected. The level of DON, AFB1, ZEN and OTA in the white and yolk of poultry eggs was measured using LC-MS-MS. The health risk assessment was calculated using Margin of Exposures (MOEs) for AFB1 and OTA and hazard index (HI) for ZEN and DON. The highest prevalence in yolk and white of eggs was related to ZEN (96.56%) and OTA (97.44%), respectively. Also, the highest level in white and yolk was related to DON (1.07µg/kg) and DON (1.65 µg/kg), respectively. Level of DON in the yolk of eggs was significantly higher than white of eggs (P-value < 0.05). Risk assessment indicated that exposed population are at high risk of AFB1 (MOEs < 10,000) in fried poultry eggs.

Keywords: mycotoxins 2, aflatoxin b1, risk assessment, poultry egg

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Authors: Charuvan Kasemsap

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This research was studied in Bangnampriao District, Chachernsao Province, Thailand. The primary data relating to flooding, drought, and saline intrusion problem on agriculture were collected by surveying, focus group, and in-depth interview with agricultural officers, technical officers of irrigation department, and local government leader of Bangnampriao District. The likelihood and consequence of risk were determined the risk index by risk assessment matrix. In addition, the risk index and the total coping capacity scores were investigated the vulnerability index by vulnerability matrix. It was found that the high-risk drought and saline intrusion was dramatically along Bang Pakong River owing to the end destination of Chao Phraya Irrigation system of Central Thailand. This leads yearly the damage of rice paddy, mango tree, orchard, and fish pond. Therefore, some agriculture avoids rice growing during January to May, and also pumps fresh water from a canal into individual storage pond. However, Bangnampriao District will be strongly affected by the impacts of climate change. Monthly precipitations are expected to decrease in number; dry seasons are expected to be more in number and longer in duration. Thus, the risk and vulnerability of agriculture are also increasing. Adaptation strategies need to be put in place in order to enhance the resilience of the agriculture.

Keywords: agriculture, bangnampriao, climate change, risk assessment

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Authors: Amar Aliche, Hocine Hammoum, Karima Bouzelha, Arezki Ben Abderrahmane

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Traditionally, the dimensioning of storage tanks is conducted with a deterministic approach based on partial coefficients of safety. These coefficients are applied to take into account the uncertainties related to hazards on properties of materials used and applied loads. However, the use of these safety factors in the design process does not assure an optimal and reliable solution and can sometimes lead to a lack of robustness of the structure. The reliability theory based on a probabilistic formulation of constructions safety can respond in an adapted manner. It allows constructing a modelling in which uncertain data are represented by random variables, and therefore allows a better appreciation of safety margins with confidence indicators. The work presented in this paper consists of a mecano-reliability analysis of a concrete storage tank placed on ground. The classical method of Monte Carlo simulation is used to evaluate the failure probability of concrete tank by considering the seismic acceleration as random variable.

Keywords: reliability approach, storage tanks, monte carlo simulation, seismic acceleration

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Authors: Qisheng Hu, Jianglei Han, Yue Yang, My Hoa Ha

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When a company is considering purchasing software for commercial use, contract risk assessment is critical to identify risks to mitigate the potential adverse business impact, e.g., security, financial and regulatory risks. Contract risk assessment requires reviewers with specialized knowledge and time to evaluate the legal documents manually. Specifically, validating contracts for a software vendor requires the following steps: manual screening, interpreting legal documents, and extracting risk-prone segments. To automate the process, we proposed a framework to assist legal contract document risk identification, leveraging pre-trained deep learning models and natural language processing techniques. Given a set of pre-defined risk evaluation problems, our framework utilizes the pre-trained transformer-based models for question-answering to identify risk-prone sections in a contract. Furthermore, the question-answering model encodes the concatenated question-contract text and predicts the start and end position for clause extraction. Due to the limited labelled dataset for training, we leveraged transfer learning by fine-tuning the models with the CUAD dataset to enhance the model. On a dataset comprising 287 contract documents and 2000 labelled samples, our best model achieved an F1 score of 0.687.

Keywords: contract risk assessment, NLP, transfer learning, question answering

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Authors: Juan Carlos Rubio Romero, Francico Salguero Caparros, Virginia Herrera-Pérez

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No one is in the slightest doubt about the high levels of risk involved in work in the construction industry. They are even higher in structural construction work. The Critical Decision Method (CDM) is a semi-structured interview technique that uses cognitive tests to identify the different disturbances that workers have to deal with in their work activity. At present, the vision of safety focused on daily performance and things that go well for safety and health management is facing the new paradigm known as Resilience Engineering. The aim of this study has been to describe the variability in formwork labour on concrete structures in the construction industry and, from there, to find out the resilient attitude of workers to unexpected events that they have experienced during their working lives. For this purpose, a series of semi-structured interviews were carried out with construction employees with extensive experience in formwork labour in Spain by applying the Critical Decision Method. This work has been the first application of the Critical Decision Method in the field of construction and, more specifically, in the execution of structures. The results obtained show that situations categorised as unthought-of are identified to a greater extent than potentially unexpected situations. The identification during these interviews of both expected and unexpected events provides insight into the critical decisions made and actions taken to improve resilience in daily practice in this construction work. From this study, it is clear that it is essential to gain more knowledge about the nature of the human cognitive process in work situations within complex socio-technical systems such as construction sites. This could lead to a more effective design of workplaces in the search for improved human performance.

Keywords: resilience engineering, construction industry, unthought-of situations, critical decision method

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Authors: Kamal Hammad, Alexey Fedorenko, Ivan Sergeichev

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This study uses analytical modeling, experimental testing, and explicit numerical simulations to evaluate failure and spall damage in Carbon Fiber-Reinforced Polymer (CFRP) composite confinement vessels. It investigates the response of composite materials to explosive loading dynamic impact, revealing varied failure modes. Hashin damage was used to model inplane failure, while the Virtual Crack Closure Technique (VCCT) modeled inter-laminar damage. Results show moderate agreement between simulations and experiments regarding free surface velocity and failure stresses, with discrepancies due to wire alignment imperfections and wave reverberations in the experimental test. The findings can improve design and risk-reduction strategies in high-risk scenarios, leading to enhanced safety and economic efficiency in material assessment and structural design processes.

Keywords: explicit, numerical, spall, damage, CFRP, composite, vessels, explosive, dynamic, impact, Hashin, VCCT

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Authors: Manoel Pereira, Alvaro Veiga, Camila Epprecht, Renato Costa

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This paper introduces an empirical version of the Esscher transform for risk-neutral option pricing. Traditional parametric methods require the formulation of an explicit risk-neutral model and are operational only for a few probability distributions for the returns of the underlying. In our proposal, we make only mild assumptions on the pricing kernel and there is no need for the formulation of the risk-neutral model for the returns. First, we simulate sample paths for the returns under the physical distribution. Then, based on the empirical Esscher transform, the sample is reweighted, giving rise to a risk-neutralized sample from which derivative prices can be obtained by a weighted sum of the options pay-offs in each path. We compare our proposal with some traditional parametric pricing methods in four experiments with artificial and real data.

Keywords: esscher transform, generalized autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (GARCH), nonparametric option pricing

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Authors: Mohammad Vahedi Torshizi

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In this investigation, at first, bending stress, contact stress, Safety factor of bending and Safety factor of contact between sun gear and planet gear tooth was determined using mathematical equations. Also, The amount of Sun Revolution in, Speed carrier, power Transmitted of the sun, sun torque, sun peripheral speed, Enter the tangential force gears, was calculated using mathematical equations. According to the obtained results, maximum of bending stress and contact stress occurred in three plantary and low status of four plantary. Also, maximum of Speed carrier, sun peripheral speed, Safety factor of bending and Safety factor of contact obtained in four plantary and maximum of power Transmitted of the sun, Enter the tangential force gears, bending stress and contact stress was in three pantry and factors And other factors were equal in the two planets.

Keywords: bending stress, contact stress, plantary, mathematical equations

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Authors: A. Anis, W. Bekheet, A. El Hakim

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Implementing a Road Safety Management System (SMS) in a crowded developing country such as Egypt is a necessity. Beginning a sustainable SMS requires a comprehensive reliable data system for all information pertinent to road crashes. In this paper, a survey for the available data in Egypt and validating it for using in an SMS in Egypt. The research provides some missing data, and refer to the unavailable data in Egypt, looking forward to the contribution of the scientific society, the authorities, and the public in solving the problem of missing or unreliable crash data. The required data for implementing an SMS in Egypt are divided into three categories; the first is available data such as fatality and injury rates and it is proven in this research that it may be inconsistent and unreliable, the second category of data is not available, but it may be estimated, an example of estimating vehicle cost is available in this research, the third is not available and can be measured case by case such as the functional and geometric properties of a facility. Some inquiries are provided in this research for the scientific society, such as how to improve the links among stakeholders of road safety in order to obtain a consistent, non-biased, and reliable data system.

Keywords: road safety management system, road crash, road fatality, road injury

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Authors: Hannes Koester

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Driven by difficult market conditions and increasing regulations, many banks are making the strategic decision to restructure their portfolio by divesting several business segments. Using a unique dataset of 727 portfolio restructuring announcements by 161 international listed banks over the period 1999 to 2015, we investigate the impact of restructuring measurements on the stock performance as well as on the banks’ profitability and risk. Employing the event study methodology, we detect positive stock market reactions on the announcement of restructuring measurements. These positive stock market reactions indicate that shareholders reward banks’ specialization activities. However, the results of the system GMM regressions show a negative relation between restructuring measurements and banks’ return on assets and a positive relation towards the individual and systemic risk of banks. These empirical results indicate that there is no guarantee that portfolio restructurings will result in a more profitable and less risky institution.

Keywords: bank performance, bank risk, divestiture, restructuring, systemic risk

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Authors: Shaya Alshahrani

Abstract:

Perceived risks play a major role in consumer intentions, behaviors, attitudes, and decisions about online shopping in the KSA. This paper investigates the influence of six perceived risk dimensions on Saudi consumers: product risk, information risk, financial risk, privacy and security risk, delivery risk, and terms and conditions risk empirically. To ensure the success of this study, a random survey was distributed to reflect the consumers’ perceived risk and to enable the generalization of the results. Data were collected from 323 respondents in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA): 50 who had never shopped online and 273 who had done so. The results indicated that all six risks influenced the respondents’ perceptions of online shopping. The non-online shoppers perceived financial and delivery risks as the most significant barriers to online shopping. This was followed closely by performance, information, and privacy and security risks. Terms and conditions were perceived as less significant. The online consumers considered delivery and performance risks to be the most significant influences on internet shopping. This was followed closely by information and terms and conditions. Financial and privacy and security risks were perceived as less significant. This paper argues that introducing adequate legal solutions to addressing related problems arising from this study is an urgent need. This may enhance consumer trust in the KSA online market, increase consumers’ intentions regarding online shopping, and improve consumer protection.

Keywords: perceived risk, online contracts, Saudi Arabia, consumer protection

Procedia PDF Downloads 146

Authors: David Glew, Felix Thomas, Matthew Brooke-Peat

Abstract:

Improving the thermal performance of homes is seen as an essential step in achieving climate change, fuel security, fuel poverty targets. One of the most effective thermal retrofits is to insulate solid walls. However, it has been observed that applying insulation to the internal face of solid walls reduces the surface temperature of the inner wall leaf, which may introduce condensation risk and may interrupt seasonal moisture accumulation and dissipation. This research quantifies the extent to which the risk of condensation and moisture accumulation in the wall increases (which can increase the risk of timber rot) following the installation of six different types of internal wall insulation. In so doing, it compares how risk is affected by both the thermal resistance, thickness, and breathability of the insulation. Thermal bridging, surface temperatures, condensation risk, and moisture accumulation are evaluated using hygrothermal simulation software before and after the thermal upgrades. The research finds that installing internal wall insulation will always introduce some risk of condensation and moisture. However, it identifies that risks were present prior to insulation and that breathable materials and insulation with lower resistance have lower risks than alternative insulation options. The implications of this may be that building standards that encourage the enhanced thermal performance of solid walls may be introducing moisture risks into homes.

Keywords: condensation risk, hygrothermal simulation, internal wall insulation, thermal bridging

Procedia PDF Downloads 158

Authors: Lagnajeet Mohanty, Mohnish Mishra, Pratham Tapdiya, Himanshu Sekhar Nayak, Swetapadma Singh

Abstract:

In the era of global interconnectedness, effective risk assessment and management are critical for organizational resilience. This review explores the integration of machine learning (ML) into risk processes, examining its transformative potential and the challenges it presents. The literature reveals ML's success in sectors like consumer credit, demonstrating enhanced predictive accuracy, adaptability, and potential cost savings. However, ethical considerations, interpretability issues, and the demand for skilled practitioners pose limitations. Looking forward, the study identifies future research scopes, including refining ethical frameworks, advancing interpretability techniques, and fostering interdisciplinary collaborations. The synthesis of limitations and future directions highlights the dynamic landscape of ML in risk management, urging stakeholders to navigate challenges innovatively. This abstract encapsulates the evolving discourse on ML's role in shaping proactive and effective risk management strategies in our interconnected and unpredictable global landscape.

Keywords: machine learning, risk assessment, ethical considerations, financial inclusion

Procedia PDF Downloads 63