Search results for: demand forecast updating

Authors: Manuel Alves, Angelica Reis, Armindo Lobo, Valdemar Leiras

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In industry 4.0, it is common to have a lot of sensor data. In this deluge of data, hints of possible problems are difficult to spot. The digital twin concept aims to help answer this problem, but it is mainly used as a monitoring tool to handle the visualisation of data. Failure detection is of paramount importance in any industry, and it consumes a lot of resources. Any improvement in this regard is of tangible value to the organisation. The aim of this paper is to add the ability to forecast test failures, curtailing detection times. To achieve this, several anomaly detection algorithms were compared with a symbolic regression approach. To this end, Isolation Forest, One-Class SVM and an auto-encoder have been explored. For the symbolic regression PySR library was used. The first results show that this approach is valid and can be added to the tools available in this context as a low resource anomaly detection method since, after training, the only requirement is the calculation of a polynomial, a useful feature in the digital twin context.

Keywords: anomaly detection, digital twin, industry 4.0, symbolic regression

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Authors: Md. Alamgir Hossain, Md. Zakir Hossain, Md. Atiqur Rahman

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Tidal power can play a vital role in integrating as new source of renewable energy to the off-grid power connection in isolated areas, namely Sandwip, in Bangladesh. It can reduce the present energy crisis and improve the social, environmental and economic perspective of Bangladesh. Tidal energy is becoming popular around the world due to its own facilities. The development of any country largely depends on energy sector improvement. Lack of energy sector is because of hampering progress of any country development, and the energy sector will be stable by only depend on sustainable energy sources. Renewable energy having environmental friendly is the only sustainable solution of secure energy system. Bangladesh has a huge potential of tidal power at different locations, but effective measures on this issue have not been considered sincerely. This paper summarizes the current energy scenario, and Bangladesh can produce power approximately 53.19 MW across the country to reduce the growing energy demand utilizing tidal energy as well as it is shown that Sandwip is highly potential place to produce tidal power, which is estimated approximately 16.49 MW by investing only US $10.37 million. Besides this, cost management for tidal power plant has been also discussed.

Keywords: sustainable energy, tidal power, cost analysis, power demand, gas crisis

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Authors: Saira Naeem, Rana Muhammad Ayyub

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The main objective of this study is to empirically study the antecedents of perceptions of non-Muslim consumers towards Halal foods. The questionnaire survey was conducted through surveymonkey.com from non-Muslims (n=222) of USA. The validated scales of knowledge about Halal foods, animal welfare concerns, acculturation and perception about Halal foods were adopted after necessary adaptation as measures. The structural equation modelling (SEM) approach was used to study the structural model. It was found that Knowledge about Halal foods and ongoing acculturation among non-Muslims has a positive effect on perception about Halal food whereas; animal welfare concerns have negative effect on it. Furthermore, the acculturation has moderating effects but it was found non-significant. It is recommended that Halal food marketers should increase their efforts to educate customers by updating their knowledge about it. Furthermore, it is recommended that the non-Muslim consumers must be apprised of the fact that their animal welfare concerns are adequately addressed while Halal food production and supply chain. Online data collection is the only limitation of this study. This study will guide the Halal marketers of western countries about how to market the Halal food products and services to serve the non-Muslim customers.

Keywords: non-Muslims, consumer perceptions, animal welfare concerns, acculturation, knowledge about Halal

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Authors: F. Ahwide, Y. Aldali

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This article presents a current and future energy situation in Libya. The electric power efficiency and operating hours in power plants are evaluated from 2005 to 2010. Carbon dioxide emissions in most of power plants are estimated. In 2005, the efficiency of steam power plants achieved a range of 20% to 28%. While, the gas turbine power plants efficiency ranged between 9% and 25%, this can be considered as low efficiency. However, the efficiency improvement has clearly observed in some power plants from 2008 to 2010, especially in the power plant of North Benghazi and west Tripoli. In fact, these power plants have modified to combine cycle. The efficiency of North Benghazi power plant has increased from 25% to 46.6%, while in Tripoli it is increased from 22% to 34%. On the other hand, the efficiency improvement is not observed in the gas turbine power plants. When compared to the quantity of fuel used, the carbon dioxide emissions resulting from electricity generation plants were very high. Finally, an estimation of the energy demand has been done to the maximum load and the annual load factor (i.e., the ratio between the output power and installed power).

Keywords: power plant, efficiency improvement, carbon dioxide emissions, energy situation in Libya

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Authors: Yuzhi Cai

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In this paper, we introduce a newly developed quantile function model that can be used for estimating conditional distributions of financial returns and for obtaining multi-step ahead out-of-sample predictive distributions of financial returns. Since we forecast the whole conditional distributions, any predictive quantity of interest about the future financial returns can be obtained simply as a by-product of the method. We also show an application of the model to the daily closing prices of Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) series over the period from 2 January 2004 - 8 October 2010. We obtained the predictive distributions up to 15 days ahead for the DJIA returns, which were further compared with the actually observed returns and those predicted from an AR-GARCH model. The results show that the new model can capture the main features of financial returns and provide a better fitted model together with improved mean forecasts compared with conventional methods. We hope this talk will help audience to see that this new model has the potential to be very useful in practice.

Keywords: DJIA, financial returns, predictive distribution, quantile function model

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Authors: Phibankhamti Ryngnga

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It is a common phenomenon worldwide that farmland has been gradually converted for urban development particularly in the 21st century keeping in mind the population increase on the other hand. Since food demand and supply are not in equilibrium in urban set up, therefore, there is a need for alternative to feed the hungry urban settlers worldwide. In this regard, urban rooftop farming is the only way out to meet the growing demand for food production with the extra benefits of making our urban areas and cities greener and when the populace is exposed to nature and vegetation, it in turn provides an array of psychological benefits, from decreased anxiety to increased productivity. Bare roofs in cities absorb and then radiate heat — a phenomenon known as the “heat island effect. This increases energy usage and contributes to the poor air quality that often plagues big cities. But Urban rooftop farming do provide many solutions to help cool buildings, ultimately reducing carbon emissions, and by growing food in the communities they serve, rooftop farmers lessen the environmental impact of food transportation. This paper will emphasise the significance of Urban roof farming in the present century which in itself a multi-solution to various city problems.

Keywords: urban, roof farming, smart solution, sustainability

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Authors: Niladri Sekhar Barma, Satish Dhandole

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Damage identification in the context of safety, nowadays, has become a fundamental research interest area in the field of mechanical, civil, and aerospace engineering structures. The following research is aimed to identify damage in a mechanical beam structure and quantify the severity or extent of damage in terms of loss of stiffness, and obtain an updated analytical Finite Element (FE) model. An FE model is used for analysis, and the location of damage for single and multiple damage cases is identified numerically using the modal strain energy method and mode shape curvature method. Experimental data has been acquired with the help of an accelerometer. Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) algorithm is applied to the measured signal, and subsequently, post-processing is done in MEscopeVes software. The two sets of data, the numerical FE model and experimental results, are compared to locate the damage accurately. The extent of the damage is identified via modal frequencies using a mixed numerical-experimental technique. Mode shape comparison is performed by Modal Assurance Criteria (MAC). The analytical FE model is adjusted by the direct method of model updating. The same study has been extended to some real-life structures such as plate and GARTEUR structures.

Keywords: damage identification, damage quantification, damage detection using modal analysis, structural damage identification

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Authors: Moiz Masood Syed, Seong-Jun Hong, Geun-Hie Rim, Kyung-Ae Cho, Hyoung-Suk Kim

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In the near future, energy storage will play a vital role to enhance the present changing technology. Energy storage with power generation becomes necessary when renewable energy sources are connected to the grid which consequently adjoins to the total energy in the system since utilities require more power when peak demand occurs. This paper describes the operational function of a 3 kW grid-connected residential Energy Storage System (ESS) which is connected with Photovoltaic (PV) at its input side. The system can perform bidirectional functions of charging from the grid and discharging to the grid when power demand becomes high and low respectively. It consists of PV module, Power Conditioning System (PCS) containing a bidirectional DC/DC Converter and bidirectional DC/AC inverter and a Lithium-ion battery pack. ESS Configuration, specifications, and control are described. The bidirectional DC/DC converter tracks the maximum power point (MPPT) and maintains the stability of PV array in case of power deficiency to fulfill the load requirements. The bidirectional DC/AC inverter has good voltage regulation properties like low total harmonic distortion (THD), low electromagnetic interference (EMI), faster response and anti-islanding characteristics. Experimental results satisfy the effectiveness of the proposed system.

Keywords: energy storage system, photovoltaic, DC/DC converter, DC/AC inverter

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Authors: Sajjad Baghernezhad

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Meta-heuristic and hybrid algorithms have high adeer in modeling medical problems. In this study, a neural network was used to predict covid-19 among high-risk and low-risk patients. This study was conducted to collect the applied method and its target population consisting of 550 high-risk and low-risk patients from the Kerman University of medical sciences medical center to predict the coronavirus. In this study, the memetic algorithm, which is a combination of a genetic algorithm and a local search algorithm, has been used to update the weights of the neural network and develop the accuracy of the neural network. The initial study showed that the accuracy of the neural network was 88%. After updating the weights, the memetic algorithm increased by 93%. For the proposed model, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictivity value, value/accuracy to 97.4, 92.3, 95.8, 96.2, and 0.918, respectively; for the genetic algorithm model, 87.05, 9.20 7, 89.45, 97.30 and 0.967 and for logistic regression model were 87.40, 95.20, 93.79, 0.87 and 0.916. Based on the findings of this study, neural network models have a lower error rate in the diagnosis of patients based on individual variables and vital signs compared to the regression model. The findings of this study can help planners and health care providers in signing programs and early diagnosis of COVID-19 or Corona.

Keywords: COVID-19, decision support technique, neural network, genetic algorithm, memetic algorithm

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Authors: Ana Caroline Ibrahim Lino, Denise Bomtempo Birche de Carvalho

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The background of this research is the international process of control and monitoring of illicit psychoactive substances that has commenced in the early 20th century. This process was intensified with the UN Single Convention on Narcotic Drugs of 1961 and had its culmination in the 1970s with the "War on drugs", a doctrine undertaken by the United States of America. Since then, the phenomenon of drug prohibition has been pushing debates around alternatives of public policies to confront their consequences at a global level and in the specific context of Latin America. Previous research has answered the following key questions: a) With what characteristics and models has the international illicit drug control system consolidated in Latin America with the creation of the Organization of American States (OAS) and the Inter-American Drug Abuse Control Commission (CICAD)? b) What drug policies and programs were determined as guidelines for the member states by the OAS and CICAD? The present paper mainly addresses the analysis of the drug strategies developed by the OAS/CICAD for the Americas from 2004 to 2016. The primary sources have been extracted from the OAS/CICAD documents and reports, listed on the Internet sites of these organizations. Secondary sources refer to bibliographic research on the subject with the following descriptors: illicit drugs, public policies, international organizations, OAS, CICAD, and reducing the demand and supply of illicit drugs. The "content analysis" technique was used to organize the collected material and to choose the axes of analysis. The results show that the policies, strategies, and action plans for Latin America had been focused on anti-drug actions since the creation of the Commission until 2010. The discourses and policies to reduce drug demand and supply were of great importance for solving the problem. However, the real focus was on eliminating the substances by controlling the production, marketing, and distribution of illicit drugs. Little attention was given to the users and their families. The research is of great relevance to the Social Work. The guidelines and parameters of the Social Worker's profession are in line with the need for social, ethical, and political strengthening of any dimension that guarantees the rights of users of psychoactive substances. In addition, it contributed to the understanding of the political, economic, social, and cultural factors that structure the prohibitionism, whose matrix anchors the deprivation of rights and violence.

Keywords: illicit drug policies, international organizations, latin America, prohibitionism, reduce the demand and supply of illicit drugs

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Authors: Olga Sukhoveeva

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Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the main component of carbon biogeochemical cycle and one of the most important greenhouse gases (GHG). Agriculture, particularly arable soils, are one the largest sources of GHG emission for the atmosphere including CO2.Models may be used for estimation of GHG emission from agriculture if they can be adapted for different countries conditions. The only model used in officially at national level in United Kingdom and China for this purpose is DNDC (DeNitrification-DeComposition). In our research, the model DNDC is offered for estimation of GHG emission from arable soils in Russia. The aim of our research was to create the method of DNDC using for evaluation of CO2 emission in Russia based on official statistical information. The target territory was European part of Russia where many field experiments are located. At the first step of research the database on climate, soil and cropping characteristics for the target region from governmental, statistical, and literature sources were created. All-Russia Research Institute of Hydrometeorological Information – World Data Centre provides open daily data about average meteorological and climatic conditions. It must be calculated spatial average values of maximum and minimum air temperature and precipitation over the region. Spatial average values of soil characteristics (soil texture, bulk density, pH, soil organic carbon content) can be determined on the base of Union state register of soil recourses of Russia. Cropping technologies are published by agricultural research institutes and departments. We offer to define cropping system parameters (annual information about crop yields, amount and types of fertilizers and manure) on the base of the Federal State Statistics Service data. Content of carbon in plant biomass may be calculated via formulas developed and published by Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment of the Russian Federation. At the second step CO2 emission from soil in this region were calculated by DNDC. Modelling data were compared with empirical and literature data and good results were obtained, modelled values were equivalent to the measured ones. It was revealed that the DNDC model may be used to evaluate and forecast the CO2 emission from arable soils in Russia based on the official statistical information. Also, it can be used for creation of the program for decreasing GHG emission from arable soils to the atmosphere. Financial Support: fundamental scientific researching theme 0148-2014-0005 No 01201352499 ‘Solution of fundamental problems of analysis and forecast of Earth climatic system condition’ for 2014-2020; fundamental research program of Presidium of RAS No 51 ‘Climate change: causes, risks, consequences, problems of adaptation and regulation’ for 2018-2020.

Keywords: arable soils, carbon dioxide emission, DNDC model, European Russia

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Authors: Emmanuel Adu-Ofori, Richard Amfo-Otu, Isaac O. A. Hodgson

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The study was conducted to determine the treatment performance of waste stabilization ponds in Akosombo. A total of 15 samples were taken for four consecutive months from the inlet, facultative pond and outlet of maturation pond. The samples were preserved and transported to Water Research Institute for laboratory analysis. The wastewater quality parameters analysed to assess the treatment performance were total suspended solids (TSS), biochemical oxygen demand (BOD), chemical oxygen demand (COD), ammonia and phosphate. The results of the laboratory analysis showed that the ponds achieved TSS, BOD and COD removals of about 30, 82 and 75 per cent respectively. Statistically, the BOD (t = 10.27, p = 6.68 x 10-6) and COD (t = 4.23, p = 0.0029) of the raw sewage were significantly different from the total effluent at 95% confidence interval. The ammonia and phosphate removal was as high as 92% and 84% respectively. The quality parameters analysed for the final effluent from the Waste Stabilisation Pond was within the EPA guideline values. The general treatment performances were very good with respect to the parameters studied and does not pose threat to the receiving water body. A further study to examine the bacteriological treatment performance was recommended.

Keywords: waste stabilization pond, wast water, treatment performance, nutrient, Ghana

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Authors: Ainoa Guinart, Maria Korpidou, Daniel Doellerer, Cornelia Palivan, Ben L. Feringa

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Stimuli responsive systems arise from the need to meet unsolved needs of current molecular drugs. Our study presents the design of a delivery system with high spatiotemporal control and tuneable release profiles. We study the incorporation of a hydrophobic synthetic molecular motor into PDMS-b-PMOXA block copolymer vesicles to create a self-assembled system. We prove their successful incorporation and selective activation by low powered visible light (λ 430 nm, 6.9 mW). We trigger the release of a fluorescent dye with high release efficiencies over sequential cycles (up to 75%) with the ability to turn on and off the release behaviour on demand by light irradiation. Low concentrations of photo-responsive units are proven to trigger release down to 1 mol% of molecular motor. Finally, we test our system in relevant physiological conditions using a lung cancer cell line and the encapsulation of an approved drug. Similar levels of cell viability are observed compared to the free-given drugshowing the potential of our platform to deliver functional drugs on demand with the same efficiency and lower toxicity.

Keywords: molecular motor, polymer, drug delivery, light-responsive, cancer, selfassembly

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Authors: Taner Izzet Acarer, Ece Ceylan Baba

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This paper examines green building certification systems and their current processes in comparison with anticipatory systems. Rapid growth of human population and depletion of natural resources are causing irreparable damage to urban and natural environment. In this context, the concept of ‘sustainable architecture’ has emerged in the 20th century so as to establish and maintain standards for livable urban spaces, to improve quality of urban life, and to preserve natural resources for future generations. The construction industry is responsible for a large part of the resource consumption and it is believed that the ‘green building’ designs that emerge in construction industry can reduce environmental problems and contribute to sustainable development around the world. A building must meet a specific set of criteria, set forth through various certification systems, in order to be eligible for designation as a green building. It is disputable whether methods used by green building certification systems today truly serve the purposes of creating a sustainable world. Accordingly, this study will investigate the sets of rating systems used by the most popular green building certification programs, including LEED (Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design), BREEAM (Building Research Establishment's Environmental Assessment Methods), DGNB (Deutsche Gesellschaft für Nachhaltiges Bauen System), in terms of ‘Anticipatory Systems’ in accordance with the certification processes and their goals, while discussing their contribution to architecture. The basic methodology of the study is as follows. Firstly analyzes of brief historical and literature review of green buildings and certificate systems will be stated. Secondly, processes of green building certificate systems will be disputed by the help of anticipatory systems. Anticipatory Systems is a set of systems designed to generate action-oriented projections and to forecast potential side effects using the most current data. Anticipatory Systems pull the future into the present and take action based on future predictions. Although they do not have a claim to see into the future, they can provide foresight data. When shaping the foresight data, Anticipatory Systems use feedforward instead of feedback, enabling them to forecast the system’s behavior and potential side effects by establishing a correlation between the system’s present/past behavior and projected results. This study indicates the goals and current status of LEED, BREEAM and DGNB rating systems that created by using the feedback technique will be examined and presented in a chart. In addition, by examining these rating systems with the anticipatory system that using the feedforward method, the negative influences of the potential side effects on the purpose and current status of the rating systems will be shown in another chart. By comparing the two obtained data, the findings will be shown that rating systems are used for different goals than the purposes they are aiming for. In conclusion, the side effects of green building certification systems will be stated by using anticipatory system models.

Keywords: anticipatory systems, BREEAM, certificate systems, DGNB, green buildings, LEED

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Authors: Shimaa Holail, Tamer Saleh, Xiongwu Xiao

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Building change detection (BCD) from satellite imagery is an essential topic in urbanization monitoring, agricultural land management, and updating geospatial databases. Recently, methods for detecting changes based on deep learning have made significant progress and impressive results. However, it has the problem of being insensitive to changes in buildings with complex spectral differences, and the features being extracted are not discriminatory enough, resulting in incomplete buildings and irregular boundaries. To overcome these problems, we propose a dual Siamese network based on the Unet model with the addition of a deep supervision strategy (DS) in this paper. This network consists of a backbone (encoder) based on ImageNet pre-training, a fusion block, and feature pyramid networks (FPN) to enhance the step-by-step information of the changing regions and obtain a more accurate BCD map. To train the proposed method, we created a new dataset (EGY-BCD) of high-resolution and multi-temporal aerial images captured over New Cairo in Egypt to detect building changes for this purpose. The experimental results showed that the proposed method is effective and performs well with the EGY-BCD dataset regarding the overall accuracy, F1-score, and mIoU, which were 91.6 %, 80.1 %, and 73.5 %, respectively.

Keywords: building change detection, deep supervision, semantic segmentation, EGY-BCD dataset

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Authors: Nasir Ashraf, Sajid Rahid Ahmad, Adeel Ahmad

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Pakistan is a major tea consumer country and ranked as the third largest importer of tea worldwide. Out of all beverage consumed in Pakistan, tea is the one with most demand for which tea import is inevitable. Being an agrarian country, Pakistan should cultivate its own tea and save the millions of dollars cost from tea import. So the need is to identify the most suitable areas with favorable weather condition and suitable soils where tea can be planted. This research is conducted over District Mansehra and District Abbottabad in Khyber Pakhtoonkhwah Province of Pakistan where the most favorable conditions for tea cultivation already exist and National Tea Research Institute has done successful experiments to cultivate high quality tea. High tech approach is adopted to meet the objectives of this research by using the remotely sensed data i.e. Aster DEM, Landsat8 Imagery. The Remote Sensing data was processed in Erdas Imagine, Envi and further analyzed in ESRI ArcGIS spatial analyst for final results and representation of result data in map layouts. Integration of remote sensing data with GIS provided the perfect suitability analysis. The results showed that out of all study area, 13.4% area is highly suitable while 33.44% area is suitable for tea plantation. The result of this research is an impressive GIS based outcome and structured format of data for the agriculture planners and Tea growers. Identification of suitable tea growing areas by using remotely sensed data and GIS techniques is a pressing need for the country. Analysis of this research lets the planners to address variety of action plans in an economical and scientific manner which can lead tea production in Pakistan to meet demand. This geomatics based model and approach may be used to identify more areas for tea cultivation to meet our demand which we can reduce by planting our own tea, and our country can be independent in tea production.

Keywords: agrarian country, GIS, geoinformatics, suitability analysis, remote sensing

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Authors: Patikineti Sreenivasulu, K. srinivasa Rao, A. Vinaya Babu

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The demand for portability, performance and high functional integration density of digital devices leads to the scaling of complementary metal oxide semiconductor (CMOS) devices inevitable. The increase in power consumption, coupled with the increasing demand for portable/hand-held electronics, has made power consumption a dominant concern in the design of VLSI circuits today. MTCMOS technology provides low leakage and high performance operation by utilizing high speed, low Vt (LVT) transistors for logic cells and low leakage, high Vt (HVT) devices as sleep transistors. Sleep transistors disconnect logic cells from the supply and/or ground to reduce the leakage in the sleep mode. In this technology, energy consumption while doing the mode transition and minimum time required to turn ON the circuit upon receiving the wake up signal are issues to be considered because these can adversely impact the performance of VLSI circuit. In this paper we are introducing an enhancing method of MTCMOS technology to optimize the power in MTCMOS sequential circuits.

Keywords: power consumption, ultra-low power, leakage, sub threshold, MTCMOS

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Authors: Siti Indati Mustapa, Hussain Ali Bekhet

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Transportation sector represents more than 40% of total energy consumption in Malaysia. This sector is a major user of fossils based fuels, and it is increasingly being highlighted as the sector which contributes least to CO2 emission reduction targets. Considering this fact, this paper attempts to investigate the problem of reducing CO2 emission using linear programming approach. An optimization model which is used to investigate the optimal level of CO2 emission reduction in the road transport sector is presented. In this paper, scenarios have been used to demonstrate the emission reduction model: (1) utilising alternative fuel scenario, (2) improving fuel efficiency scenario, (3) removing fuel subsidy scenario, (4) reducing demand travel, (5) optimal scenario. This study finds that fuel balancing can contribute to the reduction of the amount of CO2 emission by up to 3%. Beyond 3% emission reductions, more stringent measures that include fuel switching, fuel efficiency improvement, demand travel reduction and combination of mitigation measures have to be employed. The model revealed that the CO2 emission reduction in the road transportation can be reduced by 38.3% in the optimal scenario.

Keywords: CO2 emission, fuel consumption, optimization, linear programming, transportation sector, Malaysia

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Authors: Mahsa Fathollahzadeh

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The quick advancement of nanotechnology necessitates the creation of innovative theoretical approaches to elucidate complex experimental findings and forecast novel capabilities of nanodevices. Therefore, over the past ten years, a difficult task in quantum chemistry has been comprehending electron and spin transport in molecular devices. This thorough evaluation presents a comprehensive overview of current research and its status in the field of molecular electronics, emphasizing the theoretical applications to various device types and including a brief introduction to theoretical methods and their practical implementation plan. The subject matter includes a variety of molecular mechanisms like molecular cables, diodes, transistors, electrical and visual switches, nano detectors, magnetic valve gadgets, inverse electrical resistance gadgets, and electron tunneling exploration. The text discusses both the constraints of the method presented and the potential strategies to address them, with a total of 183 references.

Keywords: chemistry, nanotechnology, quantum, molecule, spin

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Authors: Akiko Kondo, Akio Kondo

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We are facing regional problems to low birth rate and longevity in Japan. Under this situation, there are some local municipalities which lose their vitality. The aims of this study are to clarify the present state of local public transportation services in local municipalities and relation between local public transportation services and population quantitatively. We conducted a questionnaire survey concerning regional agenda in all local municipalities in Japan. We obtained responses concerning the present state of convenience in use of public transportation and local public transportation services. Based on the data gathered from the survey, it is apparent that we should some sort of measures concerning public transportation services. Convenience in use of public transportation becomes an object of public concern in many rural regions. It is also clarified that some local municipalities introduce a demand bus for the purpose of promotion of administrative and financial efficiency. They also introduce a demand taxi in order to secure transportation to weak people in transportation and eliminate of blank area related to public transportation services. In addition, we construct a population model which includes explanatory variables of present states of local public transportation services. From this result, we can clarify the relation between public transportation services and population quantitatively.

Keywords: public transportation, local municipality, regional analysis, regional issue

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Authors: Lenshie, Nsemba Edward

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This paper examines political sexuality as an identity construct, which imparts on democratic practices globally. The manifestation of political sexuality reflect on the dynamics of social, economic, cultural and political relations among different gender affecting a number of issues, such as the questions of citizenship, poverty alleviation, property rights, ownership and inheritance, rights to sexual consent, polygamous marriage, governance and representation among other issues. This paper is concerned with the aspect of political participation among different genders in Nigeria. This paper posit that political sexuality is an outcome of ‘sexuality differences’, which seeks to glorify and gratify the superiority of a particular sexuality over another. Political sexuality, therefore, motivate and exacerbate socio-cultural, economic, and political struggles among different sexualities. The paper asserts further that majority of women have been discriminated, sexually harassed, and are often denied certain rights and privileges in Nigeria. A few number of women who have found themselves at the corridors of government have used the Beijing protocol on Women to demand for ‘affirmative action’ to expand their political space. It contends that the ‘affirmative action’ in Nigeria is far from achieving it throughout the country. The paper conclude that women require more than just a ‘self-rediscovery’ to assertively demand for a more and proper inclusion in Nigeria’s democratic process.

Keywords: gender democracy, identity, politics, political sexuality

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Authors: S. Ghorbani, N. I. Polushin

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In this study, an approach to identify factors affecting on surface roughness in a machining process is presented. This study is based on 81 data about surface roughness over a wide range of cutting tools (conventional, cutting tool with holes, cutting tool with composite material), workpiece materials (AISI 1045 Steel, AA2024 aluminum alloy, A48-class30 gray cast iron), spindle speed (630-1000 rpm), feed rate (0.05-0.075 mm/rev), depth of cut (0.05-0.15 mm) and tool overhang (41-65 mm). A single decision tree (SDT) analysis was done to identify factors for predicting a model of surface roughness, and the CART algorithm was employed for building and evaluating regression tree. Results show that a single decision tree is better than traditional regression models with higher rate and forecast accuracy and strong value.

Keywords: cutting condition, surface roughness, decision tree, CART algorithm

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Authors: Shohreh Azizi, Wag Nel

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The rapid population growth in South Africa has increased the requirement of waste water treatment facilities. The aim of this study is to assess the potential use of Fluidized bed Bio Reactor for Mmabatho sewage treatment plant. The samples were collected from the Inlet and Outlet of reactor daily to analysis the pH, Chemical Oxygen Demand (COD), Biochemical Oxygen Demand (BOD), Total Suspended Solid (TSS) as per standard method APHA 2005. The studies were undertaken on a continue laboratory scale, and analytical data was collected before and after treatment. The reduction of 87.22 % COD, 89.80 BOD % was achieved. Fluidized Bed Bio Reactor remove Bod/COD removal as well as nutrient removal. The efforts also made to study the impact of the biological system if the domestic wastewater gets contaminated with any industrial contamination and the result shows that the biological system can tolerate high Total dissolved solids up to 6000 mg/L as well as high heavy metal concentration up to 4 mg/L. The data obtained through the experimental research are demonstrated that the FBBR may be used (<3 h total Hydraulic Retention Time) for secondary treatment in Mmabatho wastewater treatment plant.

Keywords: fluidized bed bioreactor, wastewater treatment plant, biological system, high TDS, heavy metal

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Authors: Swapna Begum, Higano Yoshiro

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Dhaka is the capital city of Bangladesh. It is considered as one of the traffic congested cities in the world. The growth of the population of this city is increasing day by day. The land use pattern and the increased socio-economic characteristics increase the motor vehicle ownership of this city. The rapid unplanned urbanization and poor transportation planning have deteriorated the transport environment of this city. Also, the huge travel demand with non-motorized traffics on streets is accounted for enormous traffic congestion in this city. The land transport sector in Dhaka is mainly dependent on road transport comprised of both motorized and non-motorized modes of travel. This improper modal mix and the un-integrated system have resulted in huge traffic congestion in this city. Moreover, this city has no well-organized public transport system and any Mass Transit System to cope with this ever increasing demand. Traffic congestion causes serious air pollution and adverse impact on the economy by deteriorating the accessibility, level of service, safety, comfort and operational efficiency. Therefore, there is an imperative need to introduce a well-organized, properly scheduled mass transit system like (Bus Rapid Transit) BRT minimizing the existing problems.

Keywords: air pollution, BRT, mass transit, traffic congestion

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Authors: Obe Olumide Olayinka, Victor Balanica, Eugen Neagoe

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The effects of hypertension are often lethal thus its early detection and prevention is very important for everybody. In this paper, a neural network (NN) model was developed and trained based on a dataset of hypertension causative parameters in order to forecast the likelihood of occurrence of hypertension in patients. Our research goal was to analyze the potential of the presented NN to predict, for a period of time, the risk of hypertension or the risk of developing this disease for patients that are or not currently hypertensive. The results of the analysis for a given patient can support doctors in taking pro-active measures for averting the occurrence of hypertension such as recommendations regarding the patient behavior in order to lower his hypertension risk. Moreover, the paper envisages a set of three example scenarios in order to determine the age when the patient becomes hypertensive, i.e. determine the threshold for hypertensive age, to analyze what happens if the threshold hypertensive age is set to a certain age and the weight of the patient if being varied, and, to set the ideal weight for the patient and analyze what happens with the threshold of hypertensive age.

Keywords: neural network, hypertension, data set, training set, supervised learning

Procedia PDF Downloads 392

Authors: Roberto M. G. Velásquez, Jonas R. Gazoli, Nelson Ponce Jr, Valério L. Borges, Alessandro Sete, Fernanda M. C. Tomé, Julian D. Hunt, Heitor C. Lira, Cristiano L. de Souza, Fabio T. Bindemann, Wilmar Wounnsoscky

Abstract:

Nowadays, society is working toward reducing energy losses and greenhouse gas emissions, as well as seeking clean energy sources, as a result of the constant increase in energy demand and emissions. Energy loss occurs in the gas pressure reduction stations at the delivery points in natural gas distribution systems (city gates). Installing pressure reduction turbines (PRT) parallel to the static reduction valves at the city gates enhances the energy efficiency of the system by recovering the enthalpy of the pressurized natural gas, obtaining in the pressure-lowering process shaft work and generating electrical power. Currently, the Brazilian natural gas transportation network has 9,409 km in extension, while the system has 16 national and 3 international natural gas processing plants, including more than 143 delivery points to final consumers. Thus, the potential of installing PRT in Brazil is 66 MW of power, which could yearly avoid the emission of 235,800 tons of CO2 and generate 333 GWh/year of electricity. On the other hand, an economic viability analysis of these energy efficiency projects is commonly carried out based on estimates of the project's cash flow obtained from several variables forecast. Usually, the cash flow analysis is performed using representative values of these variables, obtaining a deterministic set of financial indicators associated with the project. However, in most cases, these variables cannot be predicted with sufficient accuracy, resulting in the need to consider, to a greater or lesser degree, the risk associated with the calculated financial return. This paper presents an approach applied to the technical-economic viability analysis of PRTs projects that explicitly considers the uncertainties associated with the input parameters for the financial model, such as gas pressure at the delivery point, amount of energy generated by TRP, the future price of energy, among others, using sensitivity analysis techniques, scenario analysis, and Monte Carlo methods. In the latter case, estimates of several financial risk indicators, as well as their empirical probability distributions, can be obtained. This is a methodology for the financial risk analysis of PRT projects. The results of this paper allow a more accurate assessment of the potential PRT project's financial feasibility in Brazil. This methodology will be tested at the Cuiabá thermoelectric plant, located in the state of Mato Grosso, Brazil, and can be applied to study the potential in other countries.

Keywords: pressure reduction turbine, natural gas pressure drop station, energy efficiency, electricity generation, monte carlo methods

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Authors: Kunya Bowornchockchai

Abstract:

The objective of this research is to forecast the monthly exchange rate between Thai baht and the US dollar and to compare two forecasting methods. The methods are Box-Jenkins’ method and Holt’s method. Results show that the Box-Jenkins’ method is the most suitable method for the monthly Exchange Rate between Thai Baht and the US Dollar. The suitable forecasting model is ARIMA (1,1,0)  without constant and the forecasting equation is Y_t = Y_t-1 + 0.3691 (Y_t-1 - Y_t-2) When Y_t  is the time series data at time t, respectively.

Keywords: Box–Jenkins method, Holt’s method, mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), exchange rate

Procedia PDF Downloads 255

Authors: Hugo Badia

Abstract:

This research answers which is the most suitable transit network structure to serve specific demand requirements in an increasing urban dispersion process. Two main approaches of network design are found in the literature. On the one hand, a traditional answer, widespread in our cities, that develops a high number of lines to connect most of origin-destination pairs by direct trips; an approach based on the idea that users averse to transfers. On the other hand, some authors advocate an alternative design characterized by simple networks where transfer is essential to complete most of trips. To answer which of them is the best option, we use a two-step methodology. First, by means of an analytical model, three basic network structures are compared: a radial scheme, starting point for the other two structures, a direct trip-based network, and a transfer-based one, which represent the two alternative transit network designs. The model optimizes the network configuration with regard to the total cost for each structure. For a scenario of dispersion, the best alternative is the structure with the minimum cost. This dispersion degree is defined in a simple way considering that only a central area attracts all trips. If this area is small, we have a high concentrated mobility pattern; if this area is too large, the city is highly decentralized. In this first step, we can determine the area of applicability for each structure in function to that urban dispersion degree. The analytical results show that a radial structure is suitable when the demand is so centralized, however, when this demand starts to scatter, new transit lines should be implemented to avoid transfers. If the urban dispersion advances, the introduction of more lines is no longer a good alternative, in this case, the best solution is a change of structure, from direct trips to a network based on transfers. The area of applicability of each network strategy is not constant, it depends on the characteristics of demand, city and transport technology. In the second step, we translate analytical results to a real case study by the relationship between the parameters of dispersion of the model and direct measures of dispersion in a real city. Two dimensions of the urban sprawl process are considered: concentration, defined by Gini coefficient, and centralization by area based centralization index. Once it is estimated the real dispersion degree, we are able to identify in which area of applicability the city is located. In summary, from a strategic point of view, we can obtain with this methodology which is the best network design approach for a city, comparing the theoretical results with the real dispersion degree.

Keywords: analytical network design model, network structure, public transport, urban dispersion

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Authors: Niyati Sharma, Om Anand, Sanjeev Kumar Prasad

Abstract:

Assuming future sale value for any of the organizations is one of the major essential characteristics of tactical development. Walmart Sales Forecasting is the finest illustration to work with as a beginner; subsequently, it has the major retail data set. Walmart uses this sales estimate problem for hiring purposes also. We would like to analyzing how the internal and external effects of one of the largest companies in the US can walk out their Weekly Sales in the future. Demand forecasting is the planned prerequisite of products or services in the imminent on the basis of present and previous data and different stages of the market. Since all associations is facing the anonymous future and we do not distinguish in the future good demand. Hence, through exploring former statistics and recent market statistics, we envisage the forthcoming claim and building of individual goods, which are extra challenging in the near future. As a result of this, we are producing the required products in pursuance of the petition of the souk in advance. We will be using several machine learning models to test the exactness and then lastly, train the whole data by Using linear regression and fitting the training data into it. Accuracy is 8.88%. The extra trees regression model gives the best accuracy of 97.15%.

Keywords: random forest algorithm, linear regression algorithm, extra trees classifier, mean absolute error

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Authors: Mustapha Kamel Mihoubi, Hocine Dahmani

Abstract:

Over recent years much progress has been achieved in the fields of numerical modeling shoreline processes: waves, currents, waves and current. However, there are still some problems in the existing models to link the on the first, the hydrodynamics of waves and currents and secondly, the sediment transport processes and due to the variability in time, space and interaction and the simultaneous action of wave-current near the shore. This paper is the establishment of a numerical modeling to forecast the sediment transport from development scenarios of harbor structure. It is established on the basis of a numerical simulation of a water-sediment model via a 2D model using a set of codes calculation MIKE 21-DHI software. This is to examine the effect of the sediment transport drivers following the dominant incident wave in the direction to pass input harbor work under different variants planning studies to find the technical and economic limitations to the sediment transport and protection of the harbor structure optimum solution.

Keywords: swell, current, radiation, stress, mesh, mike21, sediment

Procedia PDF Downloads 469