Search results for: asset prediction

Authors: Jin Huang

Abstract:

Research shows that asset-building policies have positive financial and non-financial impacts on children and families. To promote the development of asset-building policies for children in China, it is important to understand the current status of family savings for children. We use the data from the 2016 China Family Panel Studies and show only 16% of families have savings designated for children’s future education. Families with advantaged socioeconomic backgrounds are more likely to save and also save more for their children than their counterparts with disadvantaged backgrounds. Without large-scale and progressive policy interventions, families with disadvantaged backgrounds are less likely to build assets for children. Policy and practice implications for family social workers are discussed.

Keywords: assets, asset building, child, china, education, family, savings

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Authors: Jeonghwan Jeon

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With the advent of IPTV in the fierce competition with existing broadcasting system, it is emerged as an important issue to predict how much the adoption of IPTV service will be. This paper aims to suggest a prediction model for adopting IPTV using classification and Ranking Belief Simplex (CaRBS). A simplex plot method of representing data allows a clear visual representation to the degree of interaction of the support from the variables to the prediction of the objects. CaRBS is applied to the survey data on the IPTV adoption.

Keywords: prediction, adoption, IPTV, CaRBS

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Authors: Andrea Paltrinieri, Alberto Dreassi, Stefano Miani, Alex Sclip

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The financial crises caused a collapse in prices of most asset classes, raising the attention on alternative investments such as Sukuk, a smaller, fast growing but often misunderstood market. We study diversification benefits of Sukuk, their correlation with other asset classes and the effects of their inclusion in investment portfolios of institutional and retail investors, through a comprehensive comparison of their risk/return profiles during and after the financial crisis. We find a beneficial performance adjusted for the specific volatility together with a lower correlation especially during the financial crisis. The distribution of Sukuk returns is positively skewed and leptokurtic, with a risk/return profile similarly to high yield bonds. Overall, our results suggest that Sukuk present diversification opportunities, a significant volatility-adjusted performance and lower correlations especially during the financial crisis. Our findings are relevant for a number of institutional investors. Long term investors, such as life insurers would benefit from Sukuk’s protective features during financial crisis yet keeping return and growth opportunities, whereas banks would gain due to their role of placers, advisors, market makers or underwriters.

Keywords: sukuk, zero beta asset, asset allocation, sukuk market

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Authors: Rahma Saleh Hussein Al Balushi

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Oman Electricity Transmission Company's (OETC) vision is to be a renowned world-class transmission grid by 2025, and one of the indications of achieving the vision is obtaining Asset Management ISO55001 certification, which required setting out a documented Standard Operating Procedures (SOP). Hence, documented SOP for the Geographical information system data process has been established. Also, to effectively manage and improve OETC power transmission, asset data and information need to be governed as such by Asset Information & GIS department. This paper will describe in detail the current GIS data submission process and the journey for developing it. The methodology used to develop the process is based on three main pillars, which are system and end-user requirements, Risk evaluation, data availability, and accuracy. The output of this paper shows the dramatic change in the used process, which results subsequently in more efficient, accurate, and updated data. Furthermore, due to this process, GIS has been and is ready to be integrated with other systems as well as the source of data for all OETC users. Some decisions related to issuing No objection certificates (NOC) for excavation permits and scheduling asset maintenance plans in Computerized Maintenance Management System (CMMS) have been made consequently upon GIS data availability. On the Other hand, defining agreed and documented procedures for data collection, data systems update, data release/reporting and data alterations has also contributed to reducing the missing attributes and enhance data quality index of GIS transmission data. A considerable difference in Geodatabase (GDB) completeness percentage was observed between the years 2017 and year 2022. Overall, concluding that by governance, asset information & GIS department can control the GIS data process; collect, properly record, and manage asset data and information within the OETC network. This control extends to other applications and systems integrated with/related to GIS systems.

Keywords: asset management ISO55001, standard procedures process, governance, CMMS

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Authors: Fatima Ali Abbass, Hassan Ibrahim Rkein

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The number of entities worldwide that currently accept digital currency as payment is increasing; however, digital currency still is not widely accepted as a medium of exchange, nor they represent legal tender. At the same time, this makes accounting for cryptocurrency, as cash (Currency) is not possible under IAS 7 and IAS 32, Cryptocurrency also cannot be accounted for as Financial Assets at fair value through profit or loss under IFRS 9. Therefore, this paper studies the possible means to account for Cryptocurrency, since, as of today, there is not yet an accounting standard that deals with cryptocurrency. The request to have a specific accounting standard is increasing from top accounting firms and from professional accounting bodies. This study uses a mixture of qualitative and quantitative analysis in its quest to explore the best possible way to account for cryptocurrency. Interviews and surveys were conducted targeting accounting professionals. This study highlighted the deficiencies in the current way of accounting for Cryptocurrency as intangible Assets with an indefinite life. The deficiency becomes well highlighted, as the asset will then be subject to impairment, where under GAAP, only depreciation in the value of the intangible asset is recognized. On the other hand, appreciation in the value of the asset is ignored, and this prohibits the reporting entity from showing the true value of the cryptocurrency asset. This research highlights the gap that arises due to using accounting standards that are not specific for Cryptocurrency and this study confirmed that there is an urgent need to call upon the accounting standards setters (IASB and FASB) to issue accounting standards specifically for Cryptocurrency.

Keywords: cryptocurrency, accounting, IFRS, GAAP, classification, measurement

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Authors: Maurice Ntahobari, Levin Kuhlmann, Mario Boley, Zhinoos Razavi Hesabi

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For machine learning based epileptic seizure prediction, it is important for the model to be implemented in small implantable or wearable devices that can be used to monitor epilepsy patients; however, current state-of-the-art methods are complex and computationally intensive. We use Shapley Additive Explanation (SHAP) to find relevant intracranial electroencephalogram (iEEG) features and improve the computational efficiency of a state-of-the-art seizure prediction method based on the extra trees classifier while maintaining prediction performance. Results for a small contest dataset and a much larger dataset with continuous recordings of up to 3 years per patient from 15 patients yield better than chance prediction performance (p < 0.004). Moreover, while the performance of the SHAP-based model is comparable to that of the benchmark, the overall training and prediction time of the model has been reduced by a factor of 1.83. It can also be noted that the feature called zero crossing value is the best EEG feature for seizure prediction. These results suggest state-of-the-art seizure prediction performance can be achieved using efficient methods based on optimal feature selection.

Keywords: machine learning, seizure prediction, extra tree classifier, SHAP, epilepsy

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Authors: Scott R. Butler

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Ontario, Canada’s largest province, is in the midst of an interesting experiment in mandated asset management planning for local governments. At the beginning of 2021, Ontario’s 444 municipalities were responsible for the management of 302,864 lane kilometers of roads that have a replacement cost of $97.545 billion CDN. Roadways are by far the most complex, expensive, and extensive assets that a municipality is responsible for overseeing. Since adopting Ontario Regulation 588/47: Asset Management Planning for Municipal Infrastructure in 2017, the provincial government has established prescriptions for local road authorities regarding asset category and levels of service being provided. This provincial regulation further stipulates that asset data such as extent, condition, and life cycle costing are to be captured in manner compliant with qualitative descriptions and technical metrics. The Ontario Good Roads Association undertook an exercise to aggregate the road-related data contained within the 444 asset management plans that municipalities have filed with the provincial government. This analysis concluded that collectively Ontario municipal roadways have a $34.7 billion CDN in deferred maintenance. The ill-state of repair of Ontario municipal roads has lasting implications for province’s economic competitiveness and has garnered considerable political attention. Municipal efforts to address the maintenance backlog are stymied by the extremely limited fiscal parameters municipalities must operate within in Ontario. Further exacerbating the program are provincially designed programs that are ineffective, administratively burdensome, and not necessarily aligned with local priorities or strategies. This paper addresses how municipal asset management plans – and more specifically, the data contained in these plans – can be used to design innovative policy frameworks, flexible funding programs, and new levels of service that respond to these funding challenges, as well as emerging issues such as local economic development and climate change. To fully unlock the potential that Ontario Regulation 588/17 has imposed will require a resolute commitment to data standardization and horizontal collaboration between municipalities within regions.

Keywords: transportation, municipal asset management, subnational policy design, subnational funding program design

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Authors: Sanskriti Singh, Ankit Tomar

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Banks are the instrument of growth of a country. Banks mobilize the savings of the public in the form of deposits and channelize it as advances for various activities required for the development of society at large. The advance which becomes unpaid for a certain period is called Non Performing Asset of the bank. The study makes an attempt to bring out the magnitude of NPA and its impact on profit, advances. An attempt is also made to bring out the challenges NPA poses to the banks and suggestions to overcome and to manage NPA effectively.

Keywords: India, NPAs, private banks, public banks

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Authors: Norazlan Alias, Mohd. Hasimi Yaacob

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This study examines the impact of governance structure via corporate restructuring decision on selected firm characteristics and performance. Results of selected ratios that represent corporate decision, governance structure and performance in pre and post restructuring are analyzed for some conclusions. This study uses annual data of companies that are consistently listed on the Main Board of Bursa Malaysia and announced completed corporate restructuring. The results show that only debt ratio is significantly different before and after asset restructuring. This study concludes that firms do not view corporate restructuring namely asset restructuring as an opportunity to simultaneous enhance governance structure that could also contribute enhance firm performance and board of directors’ structure subsequent to asset restructuring only has significantly influence on changing capital structure but not on firm performance.

Keywords: board of directors, capital structure, corporate restructuring, performance

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Authors: Nor Zila Abd Hamid, Mohd Salmi M. Noorani

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This study is focused on the development of prediction models of the Ozone concentration time series. Prediction model is built based on chaotic approach. Firstly, the chaotic nature of the time series is detected by means of phase space plot and the Cao method. Then, the prediction model is built and the local linear approximation method is used for the forecasting purposes. Traditional prediction of autoregressive linear model is also built. Moreover, an improvement in local linear approximation method is also performed. Prediction models are applied to the hourly ozone time series observed at the benchmark station in Malaysia. Comparison of all models through the calculation of mean absolute error, root mean squared error and correlation coefficient shows that the one with improved prediction method is the best. Thus, chaotic approach is a good approach to be used to develop a prediction model for the Ozone concentration time series.

Keywords: chaotic approach, phase space, Cao method, local linear approximation method

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Authors: Eisa A. Alsafran, Francis T. Edum-Fotwe, Wayne E. Lord

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The degree to which a public client actively participates in Public Private Partnership (PPP) schemes, is seen as a determinant of the success of the arrangement, and in particular, efficiency in the delivery of the assets of any infrastructure development. The asset delivery is often an early barometer for judging the overall performance of the PPP. Currently, there are no defined descriptors for the degree of such participation. The lack of defined descriptors makes the association between the degree of participation and efficiency of asset delivery, difficult to establish. This is particularly so if an optimum effect is desired. In addition, such an association is important for the strategic decision to embark on any PPP initiative. This paper presents a conceptual model of different levels of participation that characterise PPP schemes. The modelling was achieved by a systematic review of reported sources that address essential aspects and structures of PPP schemes, published from 2001 to 2015. As a precursor to the modelling, the common areas of Public Client Participation (PCP) were investigated. Equity and risk emerged as two dominant factors in the common areas of PCP, and were therefore adopted to form the foundation of the modelling. The resultant conceptual model defines the different states of combined PCP. The defined states provide a more rational basis for establishing how the degree of PCP affects the efficiency of asset delivery in PPP schemes.

Keywords: asset delivery, infrastructure development, public private partnership, public client participation

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Authors: Hy Dang, Bo Mei

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The development of machine learning methods and techniques has opened doors for investigation in many areas such as medicines, economics, finance, etc. One active research area involving machine learning is stock market prediction. This research paper tries to consider multiple techniques and methods for stock movement prediction using historical price or price factors. The paper explores the effectiveness of some deep learning frameworks for forecasting stock. Moreover, an architecture (TimeStock) is proposed which takes the representation of time into account apart from the price information itself. Our model achieves a promising result that shows a potential approach for the stock movement prediction problem.

Keywords: classification, machine learning, time representation, stock prediction

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Authors: Ghita Benayad

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Asset allocation, which affects the long-term profitability of portfolios by distributing assets to fulfill a range of investment objectives, is the cornerstone of investment management in the dynamic and complicated world of financial markets. This paper offers a technique for optimizing strategic asset allocation with the goal of improving portfolio performance by addressing the inherent complexity and uncertainty of the market through the use of Principal Component Analysis (PCA) in a multi-objective modeling framework. The study's first section starts with a critical evaluation of conventional asset allocation techniques, highlighting how poorly they are able to capture the intricate relationships between assets and the volatile nature of the market. In order to overcome these challenges, the project suggests a PCA-driven methodology that isolates important characteristics influencing asset returns by decreasing the dimensionality of the investment universe. This decrease provides a stronger basis for asset allocation decisions by facilitating a clearer understanding of market structures and behaviors. Using a multi-objective optimization model, the project builds on this foundation by taking into account a number of performance metrics at once, including risk minimization, return maximization, and the accomplishment of predetermined investment goals like regulatory compliance or sustainability standards. This model provides a more comprehensive understanding of investor preferences and portfolio performance in comparison to conventional single-objective optimization techniques. While applying the PCA-driven multi-objective optimization model to historical market data, aiming to construct portfolios better under different market situations. As compared to portfolios produced from conventional asset allocation methodologies, the results show that portfolios optimized using the proposed method display improved risk-adjusted returns, more resilience to market downturns, and better alignment with specified investment objectives. The study also looks at the implications of this PCA technique for portfolio management, including the prospect that it might give investors a more advanced framework for navigating financial markets. The findings suggest that by combining PCA with multi-objective optimization, investors may obtain a more strategic and informed asset allocation that is responsive to both market conditions and individual investment preferences. In conclusion, this capstone project improves the field of financial engineering by creating a sophisticated asset allocation optimization model that integrates PCA with multi-objective optimization. In addition to raising concerns about the condition of asset allocation today, the proposed method of portfolio management opens up new avenues for research and application in the area of investment techniques.

Keywords: asset allocation, portfolio optimization, principle component analysis, multi-objective modelling, financial market

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Authors: Supriya H. S., Chandrakala B. M.

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Deep learning based models have been recently successful adoption for network traffic prediction. However, training a deep learning model for various prediction tasks is considered one of the critical tasks due to various reasons. This research work develops Multi-Layer Hybrid Network (MLHN) for network traffic prediction and analysis; MLHN comprises the three distinctive networks for handling the different inputs for custom feature extraction. Furthermore, an optimized and efficient parameter-tuning algorithm is introduced to enhance parameter learning. MLHN is evaluated considering the “Big Data Challenge” dataset considering the Mean Absolute Error, Root Mean Square Error and R^2as metrics; furthermore, MLHN efficiency is proved through comparison with a state-of-art approach.

Keywords: MLHN, network traffic prediction

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Authors: Luisa Unda, Kamran Ahmed, Paul Mather

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We examine the effect of board characteristics on the performance and asset quality of credit unions in Australia, using a large sample covering the period 2004-2012. Credit unions are unique in that they are customer-owned financial institutions and directors are democratically elected by members, which is distinctly different from other financial institutions, such as commercial banks. We find that board remuneration, board expertise, and attendance at board meetings have significantly positive impacts on credit union performance and asset quality, while board members who hold multiple directorships (busy directors), have a significant negative impact on credit union performance. Financial performance also improves with larger boards and long-tenured directors in credit unions. All of these relations hold after we control for alternative measures of performance, credit union characteristics and endogeneity problem.

Keywords: credit unions, corporate governance, board of directors, financial performance, Australia, asset quality

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Authors: Abootaleb Shirvani, Svetlozar Rachev

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ESG stands for Environmental, Social, and Governance and is a non-financial factor that investors use to specify material risks and growth opportunities in their analysis process. ESG ratings provide a quantitative measure of socially responsible investment, and it is essential to incorporate ESG ratings when modeling the dynamics of asset returns. In this article, we propose a triple subordinated Lévy process for incorporating numeric ESG ratings into dynamic asset pricing theory to model the time series properties of the stock returns. The motivation for introducing three layers of subordinator is twofold. The first two layers of subordinator capture the skew and fat-tailed properties of the stock return distribution that cannot be explained well by the existing Lévy subordinated model. The third layer of the subordinator introduces ESG valuation and incorporates numeric ESG ratings into dynamic asset pricing theory and option pricing. We employ the triple subordinator Lévy model for developing the ESG-valued stock return model, derive the implied ESG score surfaces for Microsoft, Apple, and Amazon stock returns, and compare the shape of the ESG implied surface scores for these stocks.

Keywords: ESG scores, dynamic asset pricing theory, multiple subordinated modeling, Lévy processes, option pricing

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Authors: Zhou Yang, Heli Sun, Jianbin Huang, Jizhong Zhao, Shaojie Qiao

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Traffic prediction is essential in a multitude of ways in modern urban life. The researchers of earlier work in this domain carry out the investigation chiefly with two major focuses: (1) the accurate forecast of future values in multiple time series and (2) knowledge extraction from spatial-temporal correlations. However, two key considerations for traffic prediction are often missed: the completeness of raw data and the full context of the prediction timestamp. Concentrating on the two drawbacks of earlier work, we devise an approach that can address these issues in a two-phase framework. First, we utilize the raw trajectories to a greater extent through building a VLA table and data compression. We obtain the intra-trajectory features with graph-based encoding and the intertrajectory ones with a grid-based model and the technique of back projection that restore their surrounding high-resolution spatial-temporal environment. To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to study direct feature extraction from raw trajectories for traffic prediction and attempt the use of raw data with the least degree of reduction. In the prediction phase, we provide a broader context for the prediction timestamp by taking into account the information that are around it in the training dataset. Extensive experiments on several well-known datasets have verified the effectiveness of our solution that combines the strength of raw trajectory data and prediction context. In terms of performance, our approach surpasses several state-of-the-art methods for traffic prediction.

Keywords: traffic prediction, raw data utilization, context building, data reduction

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Authors: Li-Wei Wu, Chung-Yu Wang

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Recently, interest has been generated in the search for a new reference framework for value creation that is centered on the co-creation process. Co-creation implies cooperative value creation between service firms and customers and requires the building of experiences as well as the resolution of problems through the combined effort of the parties in the relationship. For customers, values are always co-created through their participation in services. Customers can ultimately determine the value of the service in use. This new approach emphasizes that a customer’s participation in the service process is considered indispensable to value co-creation. An important feature of service in the context of exchange is co-production, which implies that a certain amount of participation is needed from customers to co-produce a service and hence co-create value. Co-production no doubt helps customers better understand and take charge of their own roles in the service process. Thus, this proposal is to encourage co-production, thus facilitating value co-creation of that is reflected in both customers and service firms. Four determinants of co-production are identified in this study, namely, commitment, trust, asset specificity, and decision-making uncertainty. Commitment is an essential dimension that directly results in successful cooperative behaviors. Trust helps establish a relational environment that is fundamental to cross-border cooperation. Asset specificity motivates co-production because this determinant may enhance return on asset investment. Decision-making uncertainty prompts customers to collaborate with service firms in making decisions. In other words, customers adjust their roles and are increasingly engaged in co-production when commitment, trust, asset specificity, and decision-making uncertainty are enhanced. Although studies have examined the preceding effects, to our best knowledge, none has empirically examined the simultaneous effects of all the curvilinear relationships in a single study. When these determinants are excessive, however, customers will not engage in co-production process. In brief, we suggest that the relationships of commitment, trust, asset specificity, and decision-making uncertainty with co-production are curvilinear or are inverse U-shaped. These new forms of curvilinear relationships have not been identified in existing literature on co-production; therefore, they complement extant linear approaches. Most importantly, we aim to consider both the bright and the dark sides of the determinants of co-production.

Keywords: co-production, commitment, trust, asset specificity, decision-making uncertainty

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Authors: Mohammad Zavid Parvez, Manoranjan Paul

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A seizure prediction method is proposed by extracting global features using phase correlation between adjacent epochs for detecting relative changes and local features using fluctuation/deviation within an epoch for determining fine changes of different EEG signals. A classifier and a regularization technique are applied for the reduction of false alarms and improvement of the overall prediction accuracy. The experiments show that the proposed method outperforms the state-of-the-art methods and provides high prediction accuracy (i.e., 97.70%) with low false alarm using EEG signals in different brain locations from a benchmark data set.

Keywords: Epilepsy, seizure, phase correlation, fluctuation, deviation.

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Authors: Jeena R. S., Sukesh Kumar A.

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Stroke is one of the major reasons of adult disability and morbidity in many of the developing countries like India. Early diagnosis of stroke is essential for timely prevention and cure. Various conventional statistical methods and computational intelligent models have been developed for predicting the risk and outcome of stroke. This research work focuses on a multilevel approach for predicting the occurrence of stroke based on various risk factors and invasive techniques like retinal imaging. This risk prediction model can aid in clinical decision making and help patients to have an improved and reliable risk prediction.

Keywords: prediction, retinal imaging, risk factors, stroke

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Authors: Eny Suastuti

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This paper is about state’s capital equity in establishing State-owned Company (PT Merpati Persero). Under private law regime, PT Merpati Persero equity is a state asset allocated separately from the State Budget. Consequently, it is no longer a state asset; rather, it becomes a part of company assets. The adoption of Act No. 17 of 2003 on State Finance, Act No. 31 of 1999, which is amended by Act No. 20 of 2001 on Eradication of Corrupt Practices, Act No. 15 of 2004 on Auditing, Management, and Accountability of State Finance, and Act No. 15 of 2006 Audit Board raises legal issues of whether State-owned Company’s (PT Merpati Persero) loss may be deemed as loss on state finance made by the Directors of PT Merpati Persero, which implication leads to corrupt practices conducted by the Directors. The principle of civil law states that state assets are separated from the state budget is not a government asset. Therefore the case of a lease agreement 2 (two) units of Boeing 737-400 and Boeing 737-500 between PT Merpati Nusantara Airlines with companies Third Stone Aircraft Leasing Group (TALG) the United States cannot be prosecuted under Articles 2 and 3 of Act No. 31 of 1999 Jo Act No. 20 of 2001 on Eradication of Corrupt Practices (Law PTPK). From this paper, three things are found. First, state’s capital equity, which has been allocated separately from state assets in establishing the PT Merpati Perserois not state asset; rather, it is company’s asset. Second, in the case of mismanagement leading to company loss, the Directors of PT Merpati Persero may not be charged with committing corrupt practice as prescribed in Articles 2 and 3 of Corrupt Practices Eradication Law. Third, misperception has been made by judicial practices since the courts consider loss in certain transaction made by Directors of PT Merpati Persero to be loss of state finance whose implication is applicability of Articles 2 and 3 of Corrupt Practices Eradication Law.

Keywords: corrupt practice, loss, state's capital equity, state finance (PT Merpati Persero)

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Authors: Tamas Bezsenyi, Noemi Katona

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Fighting Human Trafficking is a highly important issue worldwide that states need to deal with in international politics. In the EU combatting human trafficking is emphasized in international policy making and also in the work of international law enforcement, thus in the work of the EUROPOL. While the EU Directive against Human Trafficking prescribes how states should fight this transnational crime and also how victims should be assisted, the EUROPOL focuses on the effective cooperation between national law enforcement agencies. However, despite the aims of the common fight, human trafficking is regulated differently in the punitive law of various nation states. This deeply defines the work and possibilities of national law enforcement organizations. Among the manifold differences in this paper, we focus on the role of regulating asset recovery. We highlight that money, and the regulation and practice how the law enforcement deals with income gained from criminal activities, play essential role in combatting human trafficking. While doing research on the investigation of transnational human trafficking by the Hungarian Law Enforcement Agencies, we have found that the unfortunate regulation of asset recovery determines the lower effectiveness of eliminating criminal organizations. While i.e. in the Netherlands confiscation of property takes place in an early stage of the criminal procedure, in Hungary it can be conducted only if money laundering is also assumed. Our presentation builds on the comparison of criminal procedures which we analyse based on criminal files and interviews with coworkers of the National Bureau of Investigation.

Keywords: human trafficking, law enforcement, asset recovery, organized crime

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Authors: Muhammad Awais Shafique, Eiji Hato, Hideki Yaginuma

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Recently GPS data is used in a lot of studies to automatically reconstruct travel patterns for trip survey. The aim is to minimize the use of questionnaire surveys and travel diaries so as to reduce their negative effects. In this paper data acquired from GPS and accelerometer embedded in smart phones is utilized to predict the mode of transportation used by the phone carrier. For prediction, Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Adaptive boosting (AdaBoost) are employed. Moreover a unique method to improve the prediction results from these algorithms is also proposed. Results suggest that the prediction accuracy of AdaBoost after improvement is relatively better than the rest.

Keywords: accelerometer, AdaBoost, GPS, mode prediction, support vector machine

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Authors: Carl van Walraven, Meltem Tuna

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Background: Network meta-analysis (NMA) quantifies the relative efficacy of 3 or more interventions from studies containing a subgroup of interventions. This study applied the analytical approach of NMA to quantify the relative accuracy of prediction models with distinct inclusion criteria that are evaluated on a common population (‘concurrent external validation’). Methods: We simulated binary events in 5000 patients using a known risk function. We biased the risk function and modified its precision by pre-specified amounts to create 15 prediction models with varying accuracy and distinct patient applicability. Prediction model accuracy was measured using the Scaled Brier Score (SBS). Overall prediction model accuracy was measured using fixed-effects methods that accounted for model applicability patterns. Prediction model accuracy was summarized as the Network Relative Model Accuracy (NeRMA) Score which ranges from -∞ through 0 (accuracy of random guessing) to 1 (accuracy of most accurate model in concurrent external validation). Results: The unbiased prediction model had the highest SBS. The NeRMA score correctly ranked all simulated prediction models by the extent of bias from the known risk function. A SAS macro and R-function was created to implement the NeRMA Score. Conclusions: The NeRMA Score makes it possible to quantify the accuracy of binomial prediction models having distinct inclusion criteria in a concurrent external validation.

Keywords: prediction model accuracy, scaled brier score, fixed effects methods, concurrent external validation

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Authors: Arvinder Kaur, Deepti Chopra

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Software Entropy Metrics for bug prediction have been validated on various software systems by different researchers. In our previous research, we have validated that Software Entropy Metrics calculated for Mozilla subsystem’s predict the future bugs reasonably well. In this study, the Software Entropy metrics are calculated for a subsystem of Android and it is noticed that these metrics are not suitable for bug prediction. The results are compared with a subsystem of Mozilla and a comparison is made between the two software systems to determine the reasons why Software Entropy metrics are not applicable for Android.

Keywords: android, bug prediction, mining software repositories, software entropy

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Authors: Chang Su Woo, Hyun Sung Park

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Useful lifetime evaluation of chevron rubber spring was very important in design procedure to assure the safety and reliability. It is, therefore, necessary to establish a suitable criterion for the replacement period of chevron rubber spring. In this study, we performed characteristic analysis and useful lifetime prediction of chevron rubber spring. Rubber material coefficient was obtained by curve fittings of uni-axial tension, equi bi-axial tension and pure shear test. Computer simulation was executed to predict and evaluate the load capacity and stiffness for chevron rubber spring. In order to useful lifetime prediction of rubber material, we carried out the compression set with heat aging test in an oven at the temperature ranging from 50°C to 100°C during a period 180 days. By using the Arrhenius plot, several useful lifetime prediction equations for rubber material was proposed.

Keywords: chevron rubber spring, material coefficient, finite element analysis, useful lifetime prediction

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Authors: Amit R. Bhende, G. K. Awari

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Remaining useful life (RUL) prediction is one of key technologies to realize prognostics and health management that is being widely applied in many industrial systems to ensure high system availability over their life cycles. The present work proposes a data-driven method of RUL prediction based on multiple health state assessment for rolling element bearings. Bearing degradation data at three different conditions from run to failure is used. A RUL prediction model is separately built in each condition. Feed forward back propagation neural network models are developed for prediction modeling.

Keywords: bearing degradation data, remaining useful life (RUL), back propagation, prognosis

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Authors: Qiang Zhang, Chun Yuan

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Since the PU (Prediction Unit) decision process is the most time consuming part of the emerging HEVC (High Efficient Video Coding) standardin intra and inter frame coding, this paper proposes the fast PU decision algorithm and speed up the algorithm using CUDA (Compute Unified Device Architecture). In intra frame coding, the fast PU decision algorithm uses the texture features to skip intra-frame prediction or terminal the intra-frame prediction for smaller PU size. In inter frame coding of HEVC, the fast PU decision algorithm takes use of the similarity of its own two Nx2N size PU's motion vectors and the hierarchical structure of CU (Coding Unit) partition to skip some modes of PU partition, so as to reduce the motion estimation times. The accelerate algorithm using CUDA is based on the fast PU decision algorithm which uses the GPU to make the motion search and the gradient computation could be parallel computed. The proposed algorithm achieves up to 57% time saving compared to the HM 10.0 with little rate-distortion losses (0.043dB drop and 1.82% bitrate increase on average).

Keywords: HEVC, PU decision, inter prediction, intra prediction, CUDA, parallel

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Authors: J. K. Alhassan, C. S. Actsu

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This study is on the prediction of feature performance of undergraduate students with Artificial Neural Networks (ANN). With the growing decline in the quality academic performance of undergraduate students, it has become essential to predict the students’ feature academic performance early in their courses of first and second years and to take the necessary precautions using such prediction-based information. The feed forward multilayer neural network model was used to train and develop a network and the test carried out with some of the input variables. A result of 80% accuracy was obtained from the test which was carried out, with an average error of 0.009781.

Keywords: academic performance, artificial neural network, prediction, students

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Authors: Shruti Kohli

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The sophistication and pervasiveness of cyber-attacks are constantly growing, driven partly by technological progress, profitable applications in organized crime and state-sponsored innovation. The modernization of rail control systems has resulted in an increasing reliance on digital technology and increased the potential for security breaches and cyber-attacks. This research track showcases the need for developing a secure reusable scalable framework for enhancing cyber security of rail assets. A cyber security framework has been proposed that is being developed to detect the tell-tale signs of cyber-attacks against industrial assets.

Keywords: cyber security, rail asset, security threat, cyber ontology

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