Search results for: decline curve analysis

Authors: Ximena Calle, Plinio Cantero-López, Felipe Muñoz-Córdova, Mayarling-Francisca Troncoso, Sergio Lavandero, Valentina Parra

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MUL1, a mitochondrial E3 ubiquitin ligase anchored to the outer mitochondrial membrane, is highly expressed in the heart. MUL1 is involved in multiple biological pathways associated with mitochondrial dynamics. Increased MUL1 affects the balance between fission and fusion, affecting mitochondrial function, which plays a crucial role in myocardial function. Therefore, it is interesting to evaluate the effect of cardiac-specific overexpression of MUL1 on myocardial function. Aim: To determine heart functionality in a mouse model with cardio-specific overexpression MUL1 protein. Methods and Results: Male C57BL/Tg transgenic mice with cardiomyocyte-specific overexpression of MUL1 (n=10) and control (n=4) were evaluated at 12, 27, and 35 weeks of age. Glucose tolerance curve determination was performed after a 6-hours fast to assess metabolic capacity, treadmill test, and systolic, and diastolic pressure was evaluated by the mouse tail-cuff blood pressure system equipment. The result showed no glucose tolerance curve, and the treadmill test demonstrated no significant changes between groups. However, substantial changes in diastolic function were observed by ultrasound and determination of cardiac hypertrophy proteins by western blot. Conclusions: Cardio-specific overexpression of MUL1 in mice without any treatment affects diastolic cardiac function, thus showing the important role contributed by MUL1 in the heart. Future research should evaluate the effect of cardiomyocyte-specific overexpression of MUL1 in pathological conditions such as a high-fat diet is one of the main risk factors for cardiovascular disease.

Keywords: diastolic dysfunction, hypertrophy cardiac, mitochondrial E3 ubiquitin ligase 1, MUL1

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Authors: Isara Muangthai, Lin Sue Jane

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Electricity is vital to every country’s economy in the world. For Thailand, the electricity generation sector plays an important role in the economic system, and it is the largest source of CO2 emissions. The aim of this paper is to use the decomposition analysis to investigate the key factors contributing to the changes of CO2 emissions from the electricity sector. The decomposition analysis has been widely used to identify and assess the contributors to the changes in emission trends. Our study adopted the Divisia index decomposition to identify the key factors affecting the evolution of CO2 emissions from Thailand’s thermal power sector during 2000-2011. The change of CO2 emissions were decomposed into five factors, including: Emission coefficient, heat rate, fuel intensity, electricity intensity, and economic growth. Results have shown that CO2 emission in Thailand’s thermal power sector increased 29,173 thousand tons during 2000-2011. Economic growth was found to be the primary factor for increasing CO2 emissions, while the electricity intensity played a dominant role in decreasing CO2 emissions. The increasing effect of economic growth was up to 55,924 million tons of CO2 emissions because the growth and development of the economy relied on a large electricity supply. On the other hand, the shifting of fuel structure towards a lower-carbon content resulted in CO2 emission decline. Since the CO2 emissions released from Thailand’s electricity generation are rapidly increasing, the Thailand government will be required to implement a CO2 reduction plan in the future. In order to cope with the impact of CO2 emissions related to the power sector and to achieve sustainable development, this study suggests that Thailand’s government should focus on restructuring the fuel supply in power generation towards low carbon fuels by promoting the use of renewable energy for electricity, improving the efficiency of electricity use by reducing electricity transmission and the distribution of line losses, implementing energy conservation strategies by enhancing the purchase of energy-saving products, substituting the new power plant technology in the old power plants, promoting a shift of economic structure towards less energy-intensive services and orienting Thailand’s power industry towards low carbon electricity generation.

Keywords: co2 emission, decomposition analysis, electricity generation, energy consumption

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Authors: Taru Singh, Shukla Das, V. G. Ramachandran

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Objectives: To develop SYBR green based real-time PCR assay to detect carbapenemases (NDM, IMP) genes in E. coli. Methods: A total of 40 E. coli from stool samples were tested. Six were previously characterized as resistant to carbapenems and documented by PCR. The remaining 34 isolates previously tested susceptible to carbapenems and were negative for these genes. Bacterial RNA was extracted using manual method. The real-time PCR was performed using the Light Cycler III 480 instrument (Roche) and specific primers for each carbapenemase target were used. Results: Each one of the two carbapenemase gene tested presented a different melting curve after PCR amplification. The melting temperature (Tm) analysis of the amplicons identified was as follows: blaIMP type (Tm 82.18°C), blaNDM-1 (Tm 78.8°C). No amplification was detected among the negative samples. The results showed 100% concordance with the genotypes previously identified. Conclusions: The new assay was able to detect the presence of two different carbapenemase gene type by real-time PCR.

Keywords: resistance, b-lactamases, E. coli, real-time PCR

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Authors: Eliska Smidova, Petr Kabele

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This paper describes non-linear finite element simulation of laminated veneer lumber (LVL) under tensile and shear loads that induce cracking along fibers. For this purpose, we use 2D homogeneous orthotropic constitutive model of tensile and shear fracture in timber that has been recently developed and implemented into ATENA® finite element software by the authors. The model captures (i) material orthotropy for small deformations in both linear and non-linear range, (ii) elastic behavior until anisotropic failure criterion is fulfilled, (iii) inelastic behavior after failure criterion is satisfied, (iv) different post-failure response for cracks along and across the grain, (v) unloading/reloading behavior. The post-cracking response is treated by fixed smeared crack model where Reinhardt-Hordijk function is used. The model requires in total 14 input parameters that can be obtained from standard tests, off-axis test results and iterative numerical simulation of compact tension (CT) or compact tension-shear (CTS) test. New engineered timber composites, such as laminated veneer lumber (LVL), offer improved structural parameters compared to sawn timber. LVL is manufactured by laminating 3 mm thick wood veneers aligned in one direction using water-resistant adhesives (e.g. polyurethane). Thus, 3 main grain directions, namely longitudinal (L), tangential (T), and radial (R), are observed within the layered LVL product. The core of this work consists in 3 numerical simulations of experiments where Radiata Pine LVL and Yellow Poplar LVL were involved. The first analysis deals with calibration and validation of the proposed model through off-axis tensile test (at a load-grain angle of 0°, 10°, 45°, and 90°) and CTS test (at a load-grain angle of 30°, 60°, and 90°), both of which were conducted for Radiata Pine LVL. The second finite element simulation reproduces load-CMOD curve of compact tension (CT) test of Yellow Poplar with the aim of obtaining cohesive law parameters to be used as an input in the third finite element analysis. That is four point bending test of small-size arch of 780 mm span that is made of Yellow Poplar LVL. The arch is designed with a through crack between two middle layers in the crown. Curved laminated beams are exposed to high radial tensile stress compared to timber strength in radial tension in the crown area. Let us note that in this case the latter parameter stands for tensile strength in perpendicular direction with respect to the grain. Standard tests deliver most of the relevant input data whereas traction-separation law for crack along the grain can be obtained partly by inverse analysis of compact tension (CT) test or compact tension-shear test (CTS). The initial crack was modeled as a narrow gap separating two layers in the middle the arch crown. Calculated load-deflection curve is in good agreement with the experimental ones. Furthermore, crack pattern given by numerical simulation coincides with the most important observed crack paths.

Keywords: compact tension (CT) test, compact tension shear (CTS) test, fixed smeared crack model, four point bending test, laminated arch, laminated veneer lumber LVL, off-axis test, orthotropic elasticity, orthotropic fracture criterion, Radiata Pine LVL, traction-separation law, yellow poplar LVL, 2D constitutive model

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Authors: Alemayehu Muluneh, Saskia Keesstra, Leo Stroosnijder, Woldeamlak Bewket, Ashenafi Burka

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There are some scientific evidences and a belief by many that forests attract rain and deforestation contributes to a decline of rainfall. However, there is still a lack of concrete scientific evidence on the role of forests in rainfall amount. In this paper, we investigate the forest-rainfall relationships in the environmentally hot spot area of the Central Rift Valley (CRV) of Ethiopia. Specifically, we evaluate long term (1970-2009) rainfall variability and its relationship with historical forest cover and the relationship between existing forest cover and topographical variables and rainfall distribution. The study used 16 long term and 15 short term rainfall stations. The Mann-Kendall test, bi variate and multiple regression models were used. The results show forest and wood land cover continuously declined over the 40 years period (1970-2009), but annual rainfall in the rift valley floor increased by 6.42 mm/year. But, on the escarpment and highlands, annual rainfall decreased by 2.48 mm/year. The increase in annual rainfall in the rift valley floor is partly attributable to the increase in evaporation as a result of increasing temperatures from the 4 existing lakes in the rift valley floor. Though, annual rainfall is decreasing on the escarpment and highlands, there was no significant correlation between this rainfall decrease and forest and wood land decline and also rainfall variability in the region was not explained by forest cover. Hence, the decrease in annual rainfall on the escarpment and highlands is likely related to the global warming of the atmosphere and the surface waters of the Indian Ocean. Spatial variability of number of rainy days from systematically observed two-year’s rainfall data (2012-2013) was significantly (R2=-0.63) explained by forest cover (distance from forest). But, forest cover was not a significant variable (R2=-0.40) in explaining annual rainfall amount. Generally, past deforestation and existing forest cover showed very little effect on long term and short term rainfall distribution, but a significant effect on number of rainy days in the CRV of Ethiopia.

Keywords: elevation, forest cover, rainfall, slope

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Authors: Seid Ahmed Mohammed, Nedim Yalansiz

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Many historians hardly gave due attention for historical comparison as their methods of study. They were still stunt supporter of the use of their own historical research method in their studies. But this method lacks the way to analyze some worldwide dynamics of events in comparative perspectives. Some dynamics like revolution, modernization, societal change and transformation needs broader analysis for broadening our historical knowledge’s by comparing and contrasting of the causes, courses and consequences of such dynamics historical developments in the world at large. In this paper, our study focuses up on ‘the dynamics of modernization’ and the challenge of modernity of the old regimes. For instance, countries like Turkey, Ethiopia, China, Russia, Iran, Afghanistan and Thailand have almost the same dynamics in facing the challenge of modernity. In such countries, the old regimes tried to introduce modernization and ‘reform from the above’ in order to tackle the gradual decline of the empire that faced strong challenge from the outside world. The other similarity of them was that as the rulers attempted to introduce the modernization reforms the old traditional and the religious institutions strongly opposed the reforms as the reforms alienated the power and prestige of the traditional classes. Similarly, the rules introduced modernization for maintaining their own unique socio-cultural and religious dynamics not as borrowing and acculturation of the west by complete destruction of their own. Therefore, this paper attempted to give a comparative analysis of two modernizers Tewodros II (1855-1868) of Ethiopia and Sultan Selim III (1739-1808) of Ottoman Turkey who tried to modernize their empire unfortunately they paid their precious life as a result of modernization.

Keywords: comparative history, Ethiopia, modernization, Ottoman Turkey

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Authors: Dominic Sagar

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Manchester ‘King Cotton’, the first truly industrial city of the nineteenth century, passing on the baton to Detroit ‘Motor City’, is the first truly modern city. We are exploring the tales of the two cities, their rise and fall and subsequent post-industrial decline, their transitions and transformations, whilst alongside paralleling their corresponding, commercial, cultural, industrial and even agricultural, artistic and musical transactions and connections. The paper will briefly contextualize how technologies of the industrial age and modern age have been instrumental in the development of these cities and other similar cities including New York. However, the main focus of the study will be the present and more importantly the future, how globalisation and the advancements of digital technologies and industries have shaped the cities developments from AlanTuring and the making of the first programmable computer to the effect of digitalisation and digital initiatives. Manchester now has a thriving creative digital infrastructure of Digilabs, FabLabs, MadLabs and hubs, the study will reference the Smart Project and the Manchester Digital Development Association whilst paralleling similar digital and creative industrial initiatives now starting to happen in Detroit. The paper will explore other topics including the need to allow for zones of experimentation, areas to play, think and create in order develop and instigate new initiatives and ideas of production, carrying on the tradition of influential inventions throughout the history of these key cities. Other topics will be briefly touched on, such as urban farming, citing the Biospheric foundation in Manchester and other similar projects in Detroit. However, the main thread will focus on the music industries and how they are contributing to the regeneration of cities. Musically and artistically, Manchester and Detroit have been closely connected by the flow and transmission of information and transfer of ideas via ‘cars and trains and boats and planes’ through to the new ‘super highway’. From Detroit to Manchester often via New York and Liverpool and back again, these musical and artistic connections and flows have greatly affected and influenced both cities and the advancement of technology are still connecting the cities. In summary two hugely important industrial cities, subsequently both experienced massive decline in fortunes, having had their large industrial hearts ripped out, ravaged leaving dying industrial carcasses and car crashes of despair, dereliction, desolation and post-industrial wastelands vacated by a massive exodus of the cities’ inhabitants. To examine the affinity, similarity and differences between Manchester & Detroit, from their industrial importance to their post-industrial decline and their current transmutations, transformations, transient transgressions, cities in transition; contrasting how they have dealt with these problems and how they can learn from each other. With a view to framing these topics with regard to how various communities have shaped these cities and the creative industries and design [the new cotton/car manufacturing industries] are reinventing post-industrial cities, to speculate on future development of these themes in relation to Globalisation, digitalisation and how cities can function to develop solutions to communal living in cities of the future.

Keywords: cultural capital, digital developments, musical initiatives, zones of experimentation

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Authors: Leila Mohammadi

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This article discusses the technology of social egg freezing in the context of existing literature on medicalization, motherhood, and marketing. The social egg freezing technique offers to preserve some healthy eggs for age-related fertility decline in the future. The study draws on a qualitative analysis and participants observation of media publications, including text, images, or audio-visual about social egg freezing technology and postpone maternity, to identify and compare their communication strategies from a framing theory perspective. Using 442 surveys and 158 pieces of publications in Spanish media, this study demonstrated that the narratives used by these publications and their structures follow a marketing objective to medicalize motherhood. Within these frames, the market of preserving fertility is cast to show compassion and concern about women. In the opinion of participants, egg freezing technology liberates, empowers, and automates women from patriarchal control, and also gives them the responsibility of taking care of their body and reproductive system. This study showed this opinion is significantly influenced by media and their communication strategies supported by providers of this business.

Keywords: motherhood, social egg freezing, medicalization, marketing, media frames, fertility, assisted reproductive system

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Authors: Mark Davies, Carolyn Wallace, Christina Lloydwin, Tom Powell

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Background: Frailty is increasingly recognized as a public health problem within an aging population. It is often characterized as an accumulation of clinical symptoms with progressive decline. We contend that dehydration is potentially the missing link driving the cycle of frailty; it contributes to malnutrition and cognitive decline and is a risk factor for other conditions. Frailty may also impact on fluid intake in cognitively intact older adults, indicating the cyclical nature of dehydration contributing to increasing frailty. Aim: To examine the relationships between fluid, hydration, and frailty in older adults in order to determine what works, for whom, how, why, and in what circumstances. Methods: A Realist Synthesis was first undertaken with n=50 studies, leading to the development of a Refined Programme Theory (RPT) articulating what hydration interventions work, for whom, to what degree, in what contexts, and how & why. Within the subsequent evaluation, the RPT was further confirmed/refuted/refined following semi-structured interviews with n=8 participants (healthcare professionals and patients). The RAMESES Quality Standards were followed throughout the study. Results: The Refined Programme Theory (RPT) highlighted three factors that result in optimized hydration for frail older people, i.e., Developing an Understanding Around Hydration, Empowering Participation, and System Reconfiguration. Our RPT indicates that hydration interventions work by developing an understanding of the importance of hydration, mitigating physical & cognitive barriers, increasing the agency of the patient, using a prompting process to reinforce drinking behavior, and routinizing hydration as a dimension of overall care. Conclusion: The study indicates that a greater understanding of the importance of hydration is required for all parties. Patients also require physical and psychological support if they are to be active agents in meeting their hydration needs. At a wider ‘system’ level, organizations must work in an integrated manner introducing processes that enable continuing professional development (CPD), encourage ongoing holistic assessment, and routinize hydration support.

Keywords: frailty, dehydration, older adults, realist review, realist evaluation

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Authors: Parisa Ahmadi Oliaei, Seyed Abolhassan Naeini

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The knowledge of soil–reinforcement interaction parameters is particularly important in the design of reinforced soil structures. The pull-out test is one of the most widely used tests in this regard. The results of tensile tests may be very sensitive to boundary conditions, and more research is needed for a better understanding of the Pull-out response of reinforcement, so numerical analysis using the finite element method can be a useful tool for the understanding of the Pull-out response of soil-geogrid interaction. The main objective of the present study is to compare the numerical and experimental results of Pull- out a test on geogrid-reinforced sandy soils interactions. Plaxis 2D finite element software is used for simulation. In the present study, the pull-out test modeling has been done on sandy soil. The effect of geogrid hardness was also investigated by considering two different types of geogrids. The numerical results curve had a good agreement with the pull-out laboratory results.

Keywords: plaxis, pull-out test, sand, soil- geogrid interaction

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Authors: Etienne Gatera

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Many studies have been conducted on SDT. Most of them focus on developed countries because of influencing factors such as; education, health, labor force, female labor force participation, industrialization, urbanization and migration. However, this thesis project paper aims to assess the impact of the total fertility rate (TFR) on the trends of the SDR in Rwanda. We will mainly be based in Rwanda after the 1994 genocide. Rwanda is located in East Africa, with approximately 13 million inhabitants. Thus, after the 1994 Tutsi genocide. The population growth rate exploded out of control with 6.17 children per woman in 1995. However, it's declined to 4.2 in 2014-2015 and declining to 4.1% in 2019-2020. Respectively with 3.4 children per woman in urban areas and 4.3 in rural areas. According to the National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda. Rwanda's population is expected to continue to grow for the rest of the century and reach 33.35 million people in 2099, with 2.1 children per woman in 2050. However, this project document aims to demonstrate the impact of the TFR on SDT trends in Rwanda. Thus, the decline in the TFR in Rwanda began with the introduction of family planning practices, which now account for 47.5% in 2019. Childbearing with three children for rural women compared to two children in the city, the increase in Divorce and separation caused by the behavior called "Kuza n'ijoro" or "coming at night" similar to cohabitation in developed countries. The decline in remarriage is caused by single mothers behavior who prefer to raise their children rather than remarry. Therefore, the study used probability sampling with (Stratified random sampling) method with a survey questionnaire of 1067 respondents in the 5 Districts (3 in rural areas and two in urban areas), with the target group of women Age between 15-49. The study demonstrated that the age of marriage in rural areas is two years higher than in urban areas. Divorce is more common in urban is with 6.2% with 5.2% in rural areas. However, separation is more common in rural areas than in urban areas, with a lower rate of 3%, due to the higher system called "Kuza n'ijoro" or "come at night", similar to cohabitation in developed countries. The study revealed that more than 85% of divorced people prefer to remain single, which confirms the low remarriage rate. Childbearing has started to decrease, especially for young singles in urban areas, due to the economic situation, with national statistics showing that unemployment in the youth community is still 16% higher. Therefore, the study concluded by confirming the hypothesis based on the results of the TFR indicators such as marriage, remarriage, divorce, separation, divorce, Kuza n'ijoro, childbearing] and abortion. The study consists of four sections, an introduction and background, a review of the literature, a description of the data and methodology, an analysis of the data, discussion results and a conclusion.

Keywords: Kuza n'ijoro, Rwanda, second demographic transition (SDT), total fertility rate (TFR)

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Authors: Tarek Litim, Ouahiba Taamallah

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Burnishing is a mechanical surface treatment that combines several beneficial effects on the two steel grades studied. The application of burnishing to the ball or to the tip favors a better roughness compared to turning. In addition, it allows the consolidation of the surface layers through work hardening phenomena. The optimal effects are closely related to the treatment parameters and the active part of the device. With an improvement of 78% on the roughness, burnishing can be defined as a finishing operation in the machining range. With a 44% gain in consolidation rate, this treatment is an effective process for material consolidation. These effects are affected by several factors. The factors V, f, P, r, and i have the most significant effects on both roughness and hardness. Ball or tip burnishing leads to the consolidation of the surface layers of both grades 100C6 and 16NC6 steels by work hardening. For each steel grade and its mechanical treatment, the rational tensile curve has been drawn. Lüdwick's law is used to better plot the work hardening curve. For both grades, a material hardening law is established. For 100C6 steel, these results show a work hardening coefficient and a consolidation rate of 0.513 and 44, respectively, compared to the surface layers processed by turning. When 16NC6 steel is processed, the work hardening coefficient is about 0.29. Hardness tests characterize well the burnished depth. The layer affected by work hardening can reach up to 0.4 mm. Simulation of the tests is of great importance to provide the details at the local scale of the material. Conventional tensile curves provide a satisfactory indication of the toughness of 100C6 and 16NC6 materials. A simulation of the tensile curves revealed good agreement between the experimental and simulation results for both steels.

Keywords: 100C6 steel, 16NC6 steel, burnishing, work hardening, roughness, hardness

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Authors: A. Eghbali, M. Goodarzi, M. Hagh Panahi

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In this article process of direct extrusion of axisymmetric bimetallic tube with conic die profile and constant Mandrel by upper bound method has been analyzed and finite element method is simulated. Deformation area is divided into six smaller deformation areas and are calculated by presenting two generalized velocity field and applicable input and output sections separately (velocity profile with logarithmic curve for input section and spherical velocity profile for materials output ) for each die profile in spherical coordinate system strain rate values in every deformation area. After internal power, shearing power and material friction power is obtained, extrusion force is calculated. The results of upper bound analysis method with given results from other researcher's experiments and simulation by finite parts method (Abaqus software) are compared for conic die.

Keywords: extrusion, upper bound, axisy metric, deformation velocity field

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Authors: Mechlouch Ridha Fethi

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This paper presents a recent mathematical model in political sciences concerning democracy. The model is represented by a logarithmic equation linking the Relative Index of Democracy (RID) to Participation Ratio (PR). Firstly the meanings of the different parameters of the model were presented; and the variation curve of the RID according to PR with different critical areas was discussed. Secondly, the model was applied to a virtual group where we show that the model can be applied depending on the gender. Thirdly, it was observed that the model can be extended to different language models of democracy and that little use to assess the state of democracy for some International organizations like UNO.

Keywords: democracy, mathematic, modelization, quantification

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Authors: B. Petrović, L. Rutonjski, M. Baucal, M. Teodorović, O. Čudić, B. Basarić

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Purpose/Objective: Radiotherapy treatment planning requires use of CT simulator, in order to acquire CT images. The overall performance of CT simulator determines the quality of radiotherapy treatment plan, and at the end, the outcome of treatment for every single patient. Therefore, it is strongly advised by international recommendations, to set up a quality control procedures for every machine involved in radiotherapy treatment planning process, including the CT scanner/ simulator. The overall process requires number of tests, which are used on daily, weekly, monthly or yearly basis, depending on the feature tested. Materials/Methods: Two phantoms were used: a dedicated phantom CIRS 062QA, and a QA phantom obtained with the CT simulator. The examined CT simulator was Siemens Somatom Definition as Open, dedicated for radiation therapy treatment planning. The CT simulator has a built in software, which enables fast and simple evaluation of CT QA parameters, using the phantom provided with the CT simulator. On the other hand, recommendations contain additional test, which were done with the CIRS phantom. Also, legislation on ionizing radiation protection requires CT testing in defined periods of time. Taking into account the requirements of law, built in tests of a CT simulator, and international recommendations, the intitutional QC programme for CT imulator is defined, and implemented. Results: The CT simulator parameters evaluated through the study were following: CT number accuracy, field uniformity, complete CT to ED conversion curve, spatial and contrast resolution, image noise, slice thickness, and patient table stability.The following limits are established and implemented: CT number accuracy limits are +/- 5 HU of the value at the comissioning. Field uniformity: +/- 10 HU in selected ROIs. Complete CT to ED curve for each tube voltage must comply with the curve obtained at comissioning, with deviations of not more than 5%. Spatial and contrast resultion tests must comply with the tests obtained at comissioning, otherwise machine requires service. Result of image noise test must fall within the limit of 20% difference of the base value. Slice thickness must meet manufacturer specifications, and patient stability with longitudinal transfer of loaded table must not differ of more than 2mm vertical deviation. Conclusion: The implemented QA tests gave overall basic understanding of CT simulator functionality and its clinical effectiveness in radiation treatment planning. The legal requirement to the clinic is to set up it’s own QA programme, with minimum testing, but it remains user’s decision whether additional testing, as recommended by international organizations, will be implemented, so to improve the overall quality of radiation treatment planning procedure, as the CT image quality used for radiation treatment planning, influences the delineation of a tumor and calculation accuracy of treatment planning system, and finally delivery of radiation treatment to a patient.

Keywords: CT simulator, radiotherapy, quality control, QA programme

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Authors: Surya R. Niraula, Devendra B Chhetry, Girish K. Singh, S. Nagesh, Frederick A. Connell

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Background: Although random sampling is generally considered to be the gold standard for population-based research, the majority of drug abuse research is based on non-random sampling despite the well-known limitations of this kind of sampling. Method: We compared the statistical properties of two surveys of drug abuse in the same community: one using snowball sampling of drug users who then identified “friend controls” and the other using a random sample of non-drug users (controls) who then identified “friend cases.” Models to predict drug abuse based on risk factors were developed for each data set using conditional logistic regression. We compared the precision of each model using bootstrapping method and the predictive properties of each model using receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves. Results: Analysis of 100 random bootstrap samples drawn from the snowball-sample data set showed a wide variation in the standard errors of the beta coefficients of the predictive model, none of which achieved statistical significance. One the other hand, bootstrap analysis of the random-sample data set showed less variation, and did not change the significance of the predictors at the 5% level when compared to the non-bootstrap analysis. Comparison of the area under the ROC curves using the model derived from the random-sample data set was similar when fitted to either data set (0.93, for random-sample data vs. 0.91 for snowball-sample data, p=0.35); however, when the model derived from the snowball-sample data set was fitted to each of the data sets, the areas under the curve were significantly different (0.98 vs. 0.83, p < .001). Conclusion: The proposed method of random sampling of controls appears to be superior from a statistical perspective to snowball sampling and may represent a viable alternative to snowball sampling.

Keywords: drug abuse, matched case-control study, non-probability sampling, probability sampling

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Authors: Onu Theresa Chinyere

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The study evaluates the perceived effect of climate change on nutritional status of women in Nigeria. Five research questions and two hypotheses were formulated to guide the study. The study adopted a survey and experimental study research design. One thousand two hundred and fifty one (1,250) respondents were selected from different State in Nigeria using multistage sampling technique. The instruments used to collect data were questionnaire and personal interview on socio economic characteristics of respondents, while Anthropometric data (height and weight) were also used. The data was analyzed using t-test statistic, decided at 50% level of significance. The study found that most states in Nigeria experience high winds, warmer and frequent hot days and night over most land areas, droughts and tides during climate change events. The respondent unanimously agree that climate change causes reduction in food yields, decline in food availability/supply, negatively affecting soil quality, carbon fertilization, decreases flexibilities in technology choices to strengthen food production. The Anthropometric analysis shows that out of 1250 women sampled, 560 (44.8%) maintain normal weight, while 405 (32.40%) women were found to be underweight, since their body mass index is less that 18.5. There were few cases of obesity among the surveyed women since only 80 out of 1250 which represent 6.4% of the women were obese. Bases on the findings, the following recommendations were made-local fertilizer should be encouraged to boost foods yield especially during climate change: women should imbibe the culture of preservation or reservoir that will help in mitigating the effects of climate on food intake and nutritional status, especially during the crisis period, among others.

Keywords: climate change, nutrition anthropometric analysis, obesity culture, environment and women among others

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Authors: P. Mounnarath, U. Schmitz, Ch. Zhang

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Fragility analysis is an effective tool for the seismic vulnerability assessment of civil structures in the last several years. The design of the expansion joints according to various bridge design codes is almost inconsistent, and only a few studies have focused on this problem so far. In this study, the influence of the expansion joint clearances between the girder ends and the abutment backwalls on the seismic fragility assessment of continuous integral bridge frames is investigated. The gaps (ranging from 60 mm, 150 mm, 250 mm and 350 mm) are designed by following two different bridge design code specifications, namely, Caltrans and Eurocode 8-2. Five bridge models are analyzed and compared. The first bridge model serves as a reference. This model uses three-dimensional reinforced concrete fiber beam-column elements with simplified supports at both ends of the girder. The other four models also employ reinforced concrete fiber beam-column elements but include the abutment backfill stiffness and four different gap values. The nonlinear time history analysis is performed. The artificial ground motion sets, which have the peak ground accelerations (PGAs) ranging from 0.1 g to 1.0 g with an increment of 0.05 g, are taken as input. The soil-structure interaction and the P-Δ effects are also included in the analysis. The component fragility curves in terms of the curvature ductility demand to the capacity ratio of the piers and the displacement demand to the capacity ratio of the abutment sliding bearings are established and compared. The system fragility curves are then obtained by combining the component fragility curves. Our results show that in the component fragility analysis, the reference bridge model exhibits a severe vulnerability compared to that of other sophisticated bridge models for all damage states. In the system fragility analysis, the reference curves illustrate a smaller damage probability in the earlier PGA ranges for the first three damage states, they then show a higher fragility compared to other curves in the larger PGA levels. In the fourth damage state, the reference curve has the smallest vulnerability. In both the component and the system fragility analysis, the same trend is found that the bridge models with smaller clearances exhibit a smaller fragility compared to that with larger openings. However, the bridge model with a maximum clearance still induces a minimum pounding force effect.

Keywords: expansion joint clearance, fiber beam-column element, fragility assessment, time history analysis

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Authors: Obinna Afamefuna Echi

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Background: The global increase in the elderly population is anticipated to reach significant levels by 2050, presenting extensive economic, social, and healthcare challenges. Age-related cognitive decline, alterations in brain anatomy, and systemic inflammation are profound concerns that diminish the quality of life and increase susceptibility to diseases like Alzheimer's and cardiovascular diseases. Resistance training is presently studied for its potential neuroprotective and anti-inflammatory benefits in older adults. Objectives: This study aimed to explore the effects of different resistance training modalities on neurotrophic factors, inflammatory markers, and cognitive functions in the elderly. Methods: A controlled trial was conducted with 60 male participants aged 60-75, assigned to either 12 weeks of high-intensity blood flow restriction training (BFRT), muscle damaging resistance training (MDRT), or a non-exercising control group. Cognitive function, neurotrophic factors such as BDNF, and inflammatory markers including IL-6 and TNF were measured before and after the intervention period. Setting: Participants were recruited from Kaunas, Lithuania, with sessions facilitated at the Lithuanian Sports University and health assessments conducted at the Lithuanian University of Health Sciences. Results: Preliminary data suggested did not show significant improvements in BDNF levels and cognitive functions in the BFRT and MDRT groups compared to controls. However, there was a notable reduction in inflammatory markers, indicating potential health benefits beyond cognitive enhancement. Conclusion: The incorporation of resistance training can be a strategic intervention to mitigate age-associated cognitive decline and systemic inflammation, thereby enhancing overall health and quality of life in older adults. The results advocate for wider adoption and further study of resistance training as a preventive measure in ageing populations. Funding: The Lithuanian Sports University, the Research Council of Lithuania and the Lithuanian University of Health Sciences.

Keywords: ageing, resistance training, BDNF, cognitive function

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Authors: Nokwethaba Makhanya, Babatunde J. Abiodun, Piotr Wolski

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Climate change possibly intensifies hydrological droughts and reduces water availability in river basins. Despite this, most research on climate change effects in southern Africa has focused exclusively on meteorological droughts. This thesis projects the potential impact of climate change on the future characteristics of hydrological droughts in the Limpopo River Basin (LRB). The study uses regional climate model (RCM) measurements (from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment, CORDEX) and a combination of hydrological simulations (using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool Plus model, SWAT+) to predict the impacts at four global warming levels (GWLs: 1.5℃, 2.0℃, 2.5℃, and 3.0℃) under the RCP8.5 future climate scenario. The SWAT+ model was calibrated and validated with a streamflow dataset observed over the basin, and the sensitivity of model parameters was investigated. The performance of the SWAT+LRB model was verified using the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), Percent Bias (PBIAS), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and coefficient of determination (R²). The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) have been used to detect meteorological droughts. The Soil Water Index (SSI) has been used to define agricultural drought, while the Water Yield Drought Index (WYLDI), the Surface Run-off Index (SRI), and the Streamflow Index (SFI) have been used to characterise hydrological drought. The performance of the SWAT+ model simulations over LRB is sensitive to the parameters CN2 (initial SCS runoff curve number for moisture condition II) and ESCO (soil evaporation compensation factor). The best simulation generally performed better during the calibration period than the validation period. In calibration and validation periods, NSE is ≤ 0.8, while PBIAS is ≥ ﹣80.3%, RMSE ≥ 11.2 m³/s, and R² ≤ 0.9. The simulations project a future increase in temperature and potential evapotranspiration over the basin, but they do not project a significant future trend in precipitation and hydrological variables. However, the spatial distribution of precipitation reveals a projected increase in precipitation in the southern part of the basin and a decline in the northern part of the basin, with the region of reduced precipitation projected to increase with GWLs. A decrease in all hydrological variables is projected over most parts of the basin, especially over the eastern part of the basin. The simulations predict meteorological droughts (i.e., SPEI and SPI), agricultural droughts (i.e., SSI), and hydrological droughts (i.e., WYLDI, SRI) would become more intense and severe across the basin. SPEI-drought has a greater magnitude of increase than SPI-drought, and agricultural and hydrological droughts have a magnitude of increase between the two. As a result, this research suggests that future hydrological droughts over the LRB could be more severe than the SPI-drought projection predicts but less severe than the SPEI-drought projection. This research can be used to mitigate the effects of potential climate change on basin hydrological drought.

Keywords: climate change, CORDEX, drought, hydrological modelling, Limpopo River Basin

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Authors: K. Benhabib, X. Pierens, V-D Nguyen, G. Mimanne

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The main hypothesis of the dynamics of solid phase microextraction (SPME) is that steady-state mass transfer is respected throughout the SPME extraction process. It considers steady-state diffusion is established in the two phases and fast exchange of the analyte at the solid phase film/water interface. An improved model is proposed in this paper to handle with the situation when the analyte (atrazine) is in contact with colloid suspensions (carboxylate latex in aqueous solution). A mathematical solution is obtained by substituting the diffusion coefficient by the mean of diffusion coefficient between analyte and carboxylate latex, and also thickness layer by the mean thickness in aqueous solution. This solution provides an equation relating the extracted amount of the analyte to the extraction a little more complicated than previous models. It also gives a better description of experimental observations. Moreover, the rate constant of analyte obtained is in satisfactory agreement with that obtained from the initial curve fitting.

Keywords: pesticide, solid-phase microextraction (SPME) methods, steady state, analytical model

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Authors: Željka Rogač, Dejan Stevanović, Sara Bečanović, Ljubica Božić, Aleksandar Dimitrijević, Dragana Bogićević, Dimitrije Nikolić

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Children with epilepsy face changes in cognitive functioning, the appearance of symptoms of psychopathology and a decline in their quality of life. Factors related to epileptic seizures and the side effects of AEDs are considered to be potential causes of these changes.These changes can be prevented by prompt action, replacement of AEDs, psychological and psychiatric treatment, and social support. However, a review of literature has not yielded a conclusion as to when it is best to react, i.e., when changes in the functioning of children with newly-diagnosed epilepsy appears. The primary goal of this study was to investigate the impact of the most commonly used AEDs on cognitive status, behavior, anxiety and depression, as well as quality of life of children with newly-diagnosed epilepsy, during the first six months of treatment. This is a non-interventional, prospective study involving six-month monitoring of cognitive status, internalizing and externalizing symptoms, as well as quality of life of children with newly-diagnosed epilepsy, and the impact of antiepileptic drugs on these domains. Children with new-onset epilepsy and their parents, immediately after the introduction of antiepileptic drugs as well as six months later, filled out appropriate questionnaires (RCADS, NCBRF, CHEQOL-25, KIDSCREEN-10, AEP). At the same time, a psychologist performed the psychological testing of the child (REVISK). At the very beginning of REVISK treatment, a reduced VIQ was established, while after six months there was a significant decrease in IQ, VIQ and especially PIQ, under the influence of primary cognitive potentials and the development of depressive symptoms. All scores of the RCADS and NCBFR questionnaires were significantly elevated after six months while internalizing and externalizing symptoms affected each other. The development of depressive symptoms was significantly influenced by AED. The scores of the CHEQOL25 and KIDSCREEN10 questionnaires were significantly reduced, influenced by the adverse effects of AED and quality of life at the start of treatment. Side effects of AEDs, were significantly associated with depressive symptoms and reduced quality of life and did not significantly affect cognitive decline, anxiety, ADHD, and behavioral disorders during the first six months.

Keywords: epilepsy, children, AEDs, cognition, behavior, ADHD, anxiety, depression, QOL

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Authors: Jae Kyung Lee, Joon Young Park

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Maintenance on power transmission lines requires a lot of works. Sometimes they should be maintained on live-line environment with high altitude. Therefore, there always exist risks of falling from height and electric shock. To decline those risks, drones are recently applying on the electric power industry. This paper presents new operational technology while inspecting power transmission line. This paper also describes a technique for creating a flight path of a drone for transmission line inspection and a technique for controlling the drones of different types. Its technical and economical feasibilities have confirmed through experiments.

Keywords: drones, transmission line, inspection, control system

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Authors: Geun-Yeon Kim, S. P. Praveen Kumar, Kwon-Hee Lee

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A steering knuckle arm is the component that connects the steering system and suspension system. The structural performances such as stiffness, strength, and durability are considered in its design process. The former study suggested the lightweight design of a knuckle arm considering the structural performances and using the metamodel-based optimization. The six shape design variables were defined, and the optimum design was calculated by applying the kriging interpolation method. The finite element method was utilized to predict the structural responses. The suggested knuckle was made of the aluminum Al6082, and its weight was reduced about 60% in comparison with the base steel knuckle, satisfying the design requirements. Then, we investigated its manufacturability by performing foraging analysis. The forging was done as hot process, and the product was made through two-step forging. As a final step of its developing process, the durability is investigated by using the flexible dynamic analysis software, LS-DYNA and the pre and post processor, eta/VPG. Generally, a car make does not provide all the information with the part manufacturer. Thus, the part manufacturer has a limit in predicting the durability performance with the unit of full car. The eta/VPG has the libraries of suspension, tire, and road, which are commonly used parts. That makes a full car modeling. First, the full car is modeled by referencing the following information; Overall Length: 3,595mm, Overall Width: 1,595mm, CVW (Curve Vehicle Weight): 910kg, Front Suspension: MacPherson Strut, Rear Suspension: Torsion Beam Axle, Tire: 235/65R17. Second, the road is selected as the cobblestone. The road condition of the cobblestone is almost 10 times more severe than that of usual paved road. Third, the dynamic finite element analysis using the LS-DYNA is performed to predict the durability performance of the suggested knuckle arm. The life of the suggested knuckle arm is calculated as 350,000km, which satisfies the design requirement set up by the part manufacturer. In this study, the overall design process of a knuckle arm is suggested, and it can be seen that the developed knuckle arm satisfies the design requirement of the durability with the unit of full car. The VPG analysis is successfully performed even though it does not an exact prediction since the full car model is very rough one. Thus, this approach can be used effectively when the detail to full car is not given.

Keywords: knuckle arm, structural optimization, Metamodel, forging, durability, VPG (Virtual Proving Ground)

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Authors: Jane O`Halloran

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Japanese university students have traditionally shown antipathy towards English due to a generally unsatisfactory language-learning experience at the secondary level with a focus on grammar and translation rather than communication. The situation has become urgent, however, due to the rapid decline in the Japanese population, which will present both difficulties and opportunities as employees will increasingly be forced to use English in the workplace. For university lecturers, the challenge is to overcome the students` apathy and convince them of the need for English in the increasingly diverse workplaces they will be entering. This article will illustrate how English teachers and content teachers at a private science university came together to address this quandary.

Keywords: student motivation, CLIL, globalization, demographics

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Authors: Fitih Ademe, Kibebew Kibret, Sheleme Beyene, Mezgebu Getnet, Gashaw Meteke

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Pressing demands for agricultural products and its associated pressure on water availability in the semi-arid areas demanded information for strategic decision-making in the changing climate conditions of Ethiopia. Availing such information through traditional agronomic research methods is not sufficient unless supported through the application of decision-support tools. The CERES (Crop Environmental Resource Synthesis) model in DSSAT-CSM was evaluated for estimating yield and water productivity of maize under two soil types (Andosol and Luvisol) of the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia. A six-year data (2010 – 2017) obtained from national fertilizer determination experiments were used for model evaluation. Pertinent statistical indices were employed to evaluate model performance. Following model evaluation, yield and rain-water productivity of maize was assessed for the baseline (1981-2010) and future climate (2050’s and 2080’s) scenario. The model performed well in predicting phenology, growth, and yield of maize for the different seasons and phosphorous rates. A good agreement between simulated and observed grain yield was indicated by low values of the RMSE (0.15 - 0.37 Mg/ha) and other indices for the two soil types. The evaluated model predicted a decline in the potential (23.8 to 26.7% at Melkassa and from 21.7 to 26.1% at Ziway under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios, respectively) and water-limited yield (15 to 18.3% at Melkassa and by 6.5 to 10.5% at Ziway) in the mid-century due to climate change. Consequently, a decline in water productivity was projected in the future periods that necessitate availing options to improve water productivity in the region. In conclusion, the DSSAT-CERES-maize model can be used to simulate maize (Melkassa-2) phenology, growth and grain yield, as well as simulate water productivity under different management scenarios that can help to identify options to improve water productivity in the changing climate of the semi-arid central Rift valley of Ethiopia.

Keywords: andosol, CERES-maize, luvisol, model evaluation, water productivity

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Authors: Roman Klas, František Pochylý, Pavel Rudolf

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This paper is focused on the CFD simulation of the radiaxial pump (i.e. mixed flow pump) with the aim to detect the reasons of Y-Q characteristic instability. The main reasons of pressure pulsations were detected by means of the analysis of velocity and pressure fields within the pump combined with the theoretical approach. Consequently, the modifications of spiral case and pump suction area were made based on the knowledge of flow conditions and the shape of dissipation function. The primary design of pump geometry was created as the base model serving for the comparison of individual modification influences. The basic experimental data are available for this geometry. This approach replaced the more complicated and with respect to convergence of all computational tasks more difficult calculation for the compressible liquid flow. The modification of primary pump consisted in inserting the three fins types. Subsequently, the evaluation of pressure pulsations, specific energy curves and visualization of velocity fields were chosen as the criterion for successful design.

Keywords: CFD, radiaxial pump, spiral case, stability

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Authors: Merad Boudia Omar Rafik, Feham Mohammed

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Data aggregation in wireless sensor networks (WSNs) provides a great reduction of energy consumption. The limited resources of sensor nodes make the choice of an encryption algorithm very important for providing security for data aggregation. Asymmetric cryptography involves large ciphertexts and heavy computations but solves, on the other hand, the problem of key distribution of symmetric one. The latter provides smaller ciphertexts and speed computations. Also, the recent researches have shown that achieving the end-to-end confidentiality and the end-to-end integrity at the same is a challenging task. In this paper, we propose (SA-SPKC), a novel security protocol which addresses both security services for WSNs, and where only the base station can verify the individual data and identify the malicious node. Our scheme is based on stateful public key encryption (StPKE). The latter combines the best features of both kinds of encryption along with state in order to reduce the computation overhead. Our analysis

Keywords: secure data aggregation, wireless sensor networks, elliptic curve cryptography, homomorphic encryption

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Authors: Akshat Kumar, Vidushi

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This paper identifies 27 KOIs, 26 of which are currently classified as candidates and one as false positives that have a high probability of being confirmed. For this purpose, 11 machine learning algorithms were implemented on the cumulative kepler dataset sourced from the NASA exoplanet archive; it was observed that the best-performing model was HistGradientBoosting and XGBoost with a test accuracy of 93.5%, and the lowest-performing model was Gaussian NB with a test accuracy of 54%, to test model performance F1, cross-validation score and RUC curve was calculated. Based on the learned models, the significant characteristics for confirm exoplanets were identified, putting emphasis on the object’s transit and stellar properties; these characteristics were namely koi_count, koi_prad, koi_period, koi_dor, koi_ror, and koi_smass, which were later considered to filter out the potential KOIs. The paper also calculates the Earth similarity index based on the planetary radius and equilibrium temperature for each KOI identified to aid in their classification.

Keywords: Kepler objects of interest, exoplanets, space exploration, machine learning, earth similarity index, transit photometry

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Authors: Shangqing Song, Bin Xu, Yajun Cheng, Zhong Wang

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miRNAs derived from exosomes exist in a body fluid such as urine were regarded as potential biomarkers for various human cancers diagnosis and prognosis, as mature miRNAs can be steadily preserved by exosomes. However, its potential value in clear cell renal cell carcinoma (ccRCC) diagnosis and prognosis remains unclear. In the present study, differentially expressed miRNAs from urinal exosomes were identified by next-generation sequencing (NGS) technology. The 16 differentially expressed miRNAs were identified between ccRCC patients and healthy donors. To explore the specific diagnosis biomarker of ccRCC, we validated these urinary exosomes from 70 early-stage renal cancer patients, 30 healthy people and other urinary system cancers, including 30 early-stage prostate cancer patients and 30 early-stage bladder cancer patients by qRT-PCR. The results showed that urinary exosome miR-30c-5p could be stably amplified and meanwhile the expression of miR-30c-5p has no significant difference between other urinary system cancers and healthy control, however, expression level of miR-30c-5p in urinary exosomal of ccRCC patients was lower than healthy people and receiver operation characterization (ROC) curve showed that the area under the curve (AUC) values was 0.8192 (95% confidence interval was 0.7388-0.8996, P= 0.0000). In addition, up-regulating miR-30c-5p expression could inhibit renal cell carcinoma cells growth. Lastly, HSP5A was found as a direct target gene of miR-30c-5p. HSP5A depletion reversed the promoting effect of ccRCC growth casued by miR-30c-5p inhibitor, respectively. In conclusion, this study demonstrated that urinary exosomal miR-30c-5p is readily accessible as diagnosis biomarker of early-stage ccRCC, and miR-30c-5p might modulate the expression of HSPA5, which correlated with the progression of ccRCC.

Keywords: clear cell renal cell carcinoma, exosome, HSP5A, miR-30c-5p

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