Search results for: measurement models

Authors: Dorsa Bakhshandehgeyazdi

Abstract:

This article tries to comprehend the change of Turkish common military relations in an analogical viewpoint. The investigation is taking into account two criteria: institutional / legitimate systems and political oversight of the military's self-sufficiency. Examination of European furthermore, Middle Eastern common military relations models to the Turkish ideal model discloses grave contrasts in the middle of Turkish and Middle Eastern common military relations. The Turkish model in change for not less than 10 years is closer to the European show in both lawful and political perspectives. However, the article underscores that Turkish common military relations are still in change and despite the fact that the EU increase procedure has continuously democratized the legitimate arrangement of the nation, law based combining obliges further advances in the political area. A the result, stabilization in Turkey depends not just on withdrawing of the military from the political domain, additionally on the best possible civilization of the administration in hypothesis and practice.

Keywords: Turkish common military, institutional, legitimate systems, political oversight, middle Eastern common military

Procedia PDF Downloads 470

Authors: Birendra Kumar Jha, Mingma L. Sherpa, Binod Kumar Dahal

Abstract:

Background: The metabolic syndrome is emerging as a major public health concern in the world. Urbanization, surplus energy uptake, compounded by decreased physical activities, and increasing obesity are the major factors contributing to the epidemic of metabolic syndrome worldwide. However, prevalence of metabolic syndrome and its risk factors are little studied in Terai region of Nepal. The objectives of this research were to estimate the prevalence and to identify the risk factors of metabolic syndrome among adults in Terai region of Nepal. Method: We used a community based cross sectional study design. A total of 225 adults (age: 18 to 80 years) were selected from three district of Terai region of Nepal using cluster sampling by camp approach. IDF criteria (central obesity with any two of following four factors: triglycerides ≥ 150 mg/dl or specific treatment for lipid abnormality, reduced HDL, raised blood pressure and raised fasting plasma glucose or previously diagnosed type 2 diabetes) were used to assess metabolic syndrome. Interview, physical and clinical examination, measurement of fasting blood glucose and lipid profile were conducted for all participants. Chi-square test and multivariable logistic regression were employed to explore the risk factors of metabolic syndrome. Result: The overall prevalence of metabolic syndrome was 70.7%. Hypertension, increased fasting blood sugar, increased triglycerides and decreased HDL were observed in 50.7%, 32.4%, 41.8% and 79.1% of the subjects respectively. Socio-economic and behavioral risk factors significantly associated with metabolic syndrome were gender male (OR=2.56, 955 CI: 1.42-4.63; p=0.002), in service or retired from service (OR=3.72, 95% CI: 1.72-8.03; p=0.001) and smoking (OR= 4.10, 95% CI: 1.19-14.07; p=0.016). Conclusion: Higher prevalence of Metabolic syndrome along with presence of behavioral risk factors in Terai region of Nepal likely suggest lack of awareness and health promotion activities for metabolic syndrome and indicate the need to promote public health programs in this region to maintain quality of life.

Keywords: metabolic syndrome, Nepal, prevalence, risk factors, Terai

Procedia PDF Downloads 149

Authors: Omogoriola Hannah Omoloye

Abstract:

Fish is a key ingredient on the global menu, a vital factor in the global environment and an important basis for livelihood worldwide1. The length – weight relationships (LWRs) is of great importance in fishery assessment2,3. Its importance is pronounced in estimated the average weight at a given length group4 and in assessing the relative well being of a fish population5. Length and weight measurement in conjunction with age data can give information on the stock composition, age at maturity, life span, mortality, growth and production4,5,6,7. In addition, the data on length and weight can also provides important clues to climatic and environmental changes and the change in human consumption practices8,9. However, the size attained by the individual fish may also vary because of variation in food supply, and these in turn may reflect variation in climatic parameters and in the supply of nutrient or in the degree of competition for food. Environment deterioration, for example, may reduce growth rates and will cause a decrease in the average age of the fish. The condition factor and the relative condition factor10 are the quantitative parameters of the well being state of the fish and reflect recent feeding condition of the fish. It is based on the hypothesis that heavier fish of a given length are in better condition11. This factor varies according to influences of physiological factors, fluctuating according to different stages of the development. Condition factor has been used as an index of growth and feeding intensity12. Condition factor decrease with increase in length 12,13 and also influences the reproductive cycle in fish14. The objective here is to determine the length-weight relationships and condition factor for direct use in fishery assessment and for future comparisons between populations of the same species at different locations. To provide quantitative information on the biology of marine fish species trawl from Nigeria coastal water.

Keywords: condition factor, growth pattern, marine fish species, Nigerian Coastal water

Procedia PDF Downloads 416

Authors: Rachid Belhachemi, Pierre Rostan, Alexandra Rostan

Abstract:

This paper develops a discrete-time option pricing model for index options. The model consists of two key ingredients. First, daily stock return innovations are driven by a continuous hidden threshold mixed skew-normal (HTSN) distribution which generates conditional non-normality that is needed to fit daily index return. The most important feature of the HTSN is the inclusion of a latent state variable with a continuum of states, unlike the traditional mixture distributions where the state variable is discrete with little number of states. The HTSN distribution belongs to the class of univariate probability distributions where parameters of the distribution capture the dependence between the variable of interest and the continuous latent state variable (the regime). The distribution has an interpretation in terms of a mixture distribution with time-varying mixing probabilities. It has been shown empirically that this distribution outperforms its main competitor, the mixed normal (MN) distribution, in terms of capturing the stylized facts known for stock returns, namely, volatility clustering, leverage effect, skewness, kurtosis and regime dependence. Second, heteroscedasticity in the model is captured by a threeexogenous-factor GARCH model (GARCHX), where the factors are taken from the principal components analysis of various world indices and presents an application to option pricing. The factors of the GARCHX model are extracted from a matrix of world indices applying principal component analysis (PCA). The empirically determined factors are uncorrelated and represent truly different common components driving the returns. Both factors and the eight parameters inherent to the HTSN distribution aim at capturing the impact of the state of the economy on price levels since distribution parameters have economic interpretations in terms of conditional volatilities and correlations of the returns with the hidden continuous state. The PCA identifies statistically independent factors affecting the random evolution of a given pool of assets -in our paper a pool of international stock indices- and sorting them by order of relative importance. The PCA computes a historical cross asset covariance matrix and identifies principal components representing independent factors. In our paper, factors are used to calibrate the HTSN-GARCHX model and are ultimately responsible for the nature of the distribution of random variables being generated. We benchmark our model to the MN-GARCHX model following the same PCA methodology and the standard Black-Scholes model. We show that our model outperforms the benchmark in terms of RMSE in dollar losses for put and call options, which in turn outperforms the analytical Black-Scholes by capturing the stylized facts known for index returns, namely, volatility clustering, leverage effect, skewness, kurtosis and regime dependence.

Keywords: continuous hidden threshold, factor models, GARCHX models, option pricing, risk-premium

Procedia PDF Downloads 297

Authors: Chang Li Yu

Abstract:

Resistances commonly happened during sexual offenders treatment program (SOTP), and removing resistances was one of the treatment goals on it. Studies concerning treatment effectiveness relied on pre- and post-treatment evaluations, however, no significant difference on resistance revealed after treatment, and the above consequences generally contributed to the low motivation for change instead. Therefore, the aim of this study was to investigate the resistance across each stage of change among sexual offenders (SO). The present study recruited prisoned SO in Taiwan, excluding those with literacy difficulties; finally, 272 participants were included. Of all participants completed revised version of URICA (University of Rhode Island Change Assessment) and resistance scale specifically for SO. The former included four stages of change: pre-contemplation (PC), contemplation (C), action (A), and maintain (M); the later composed eight types of resistance: system blaming, victims blaming, problems with treatment alliance, social justification, hopelessness, isolation, psychological reactance, and passive reactance. Both of the instruments were with well reliability and validity. Descriptive statistics and ANOVA were performed. All of 272 participants, age under 25 were 18(6.6%), 25-39 were 133(48.9%), 40-54 were 102(37.5%), and age over 55 were 19(7.0%); college level and above were 53(19.5%), high school level were 110(40.4%), and under high school level were 109(40.1%); first offended were 117(43.0%), and recidivist were 23(8.5%). Further deleting data with missing values and invalid questionnaires, SO with stage of change on PC were 43(18.9%), C were 109(47.8%), A were 70(30.7%), and on M were 6(2.6%). One-way ANOVA showed significant differences on every kind of resistances, excepting isolation and passive reactance. Post-hoc analysis showed that SO with different stages had their main resistance. There are two contributions to the present study. First, this study provided a clinical and theoretical measurement of evaluation that was never used in the past. Second, this study used an evidence-based methodology to prove a clinical perspective differed from the past, suggesting that resistances to treatment on SO appear the whole therapeutic process, when SO progress into the next stage of change, clinicians have to deal with their main resistance for working through the therapy.

Keywords: resistance, sexual offenders treatment program (SOTP), motivation for change, prisoned sexual offender

Procedia PDF Downloads 245

Authors: Hoi-Lam Ma, Sai-Ho Chung

Abstract:

In traditional integrated berth allocation with quay crane assignment models, time dimension is usually assumed in hourly based. However, nowadays, transshipment becomes the main business to many container terminals, especially in Southeast Asia (e.g. Hong Kong and Singapore). In these terminals, vessel arrivals are usually very frequent with small handling volume and very short staying time. Therefore, the traditional hourly-based modeling approach may cause significant berth and quay crane idling, and consequently cannot meet their practical needs. In this connection, a 15-minute-based modeling approach is requested by industrial practitioners. Accordingly, a Three-level Genetic Algorithm (3LGA) with Quay Crane (QC) shifting heuristics is designed to fulfill the research gap. The objective function here is to minimize the total service time. Preliminary numerical results show that the proposed 15-minute-based approach can reduce the berth and QC idling significantly.

Keywords: transshipment, integrated berth allocation, variable-in-time quay crane assignment, quay crane assignment

Procedia PDF Downloads 169

Authors: Hyuk-Hoon Kim, Young Gi Min

Abstract:

Background: In carbon monoxide (CO) intoxication, the pathophysiology of delayed neurological sequelae (DNS) is very complex and remains poorly understood. And predicting whether patients who exhibit resolved acute symptoms have escaped or will experience DNS represents a very important clinical issue. Brain magnetic resonance (MR) imaging has been conducted to assess the severity of brain damage as an objective method to predict prognosis. And co-ingestion of a second poison in patients with intentional CO poisoning occurs in almost one-half of patients. Among patients with co-ingestions, 66% ingested ethanol. We assessed the effects of ethanol on neurologic sequelae prevalence in acute CO intoxication by means of abnormal lesion in brain MR. Method: This study was conducted retrospectively by collecting data for patients who visited an emergency medical center during a period of 5 years. The enrollment criteria were diagnosis of acute CO poisoning and the measurement of the serum ethanol level and history of taking a brain MR during admission period. Official readout data by radiologist are used to decide whether abnormal lesion is existed or not. The enrolled patients were divided into two groups: patients with abnormal lesion and without abnormal lesion in Brain MR. A standardized extraction using medical record was performed; Mann Whitney U test and logistic regression analysis were performed. Result: A total of 112 patients were enrolled, and 68 patients presented abnormal brain lesion on MR. The abnormal brain lesion group had lower serum ethanol level (mean, 20.14 vs 46.71 mg/dL) (p-value<0.001). In addition, univariate logistic regression analysis showed the serum ethanol level (OR, 0.99; 95% CI, 0.98 -1.00) was independently associated with the development of abnormal lesion in brain MR. Conclusion: Ethanol could have neuroprotective effect in acute CO intoxication by sedative effect in stressful situation and mitigative effect in neuro-inflammatory reaction.

Keywords: carbon monoxide, delayed neuropsychological sequelae, ethanol, intoxication, magnetic resonance

Procedia PDF Downloads 252

Authors: Emilia Hunt, Sally C. Reynolds, Fiona Coward, Fabio Parracho Silva, Philip Hopley

Abstract:

Ecological niche modeling is widely used in conservation studies, but application to the extinct hominin species is a relatively new approach. Being able to understand what ecological niches were occupied by respective hominin species provides a new perspective into influences on evolutionary processes. Niche separation or overlap can tell us more about specific requirements of the species within the given timeframe. Many of the ancestral species lived through enormous climate changes: glacial and interglacial periods, changes in rainfall, leading to desertification or flooding of regions and displayed impressive levels of adaptation necessary for their survival. This paper reviews niche modeling methodologies and their application to hominin studies. Traditional conservation methods might not be directly applicable to extinct species and are not comparable to hominins. Hominin niche also includes aspects of technologies, use of fire and extended communication, which are not traditionally used in building conservation models. Future perspectives on how to improve niche modeling for extinct hominin species will be discussed.

Keywords: hominin niche, climate change, evolution, adaptation, ecological niche modelling

Procedia PDF Downloads 189

Authors: Merlin Simo Tagne, Romain Rémond

Abstract:

This study provides the sorption isotherm, its hysteresis and their mass transfer properties of four Central Africa Tropical woods largely used for building construction: frake, lotofa, sapelle and ayous. Characterization of these three species in particular and Central Africa tropical woods, in general, was necessary to develop conservation and treatment of wood after first transformation using the drying. Isotherms were performed using a dynamic vapor sorption apparatus (Surface Measurement Systems) at 20 and 40°C. The mass diffusivity was determined in steady state using a specific vapometer. Permeability was determined using a specialized device developed to measure over a wide range of permeability values. Permeability and mass transfer properties are determined in the tangential direction with a ‘false’ quartersawn cutting (sapelle and lotofa) and in the radial direction with a ‘false’ flatsawn cutting (ayous and frake). The sample of sapelle, ayous and frake are heartwood when lotofa contains as well as heartwood than sapwood. Results obtained showed that the temperature effect on sorption behavior was low than relative humidity effect. We also observed a low difference between the sorption behavior of our woods and hysteresis of sorption decreases when the temperature increases. Hailwood-Horrobin model’s predicts the isotherms of adsorption and desorption of ours woods and parameters of this model are proposed. Results on the characterization of mass transfer properties showed that, in the steady state, mass diffusivity decreases exponentially when basal density increases. In the phase of desorption, mass diffusivity is great than in the phase of adsorption. The permeability of ours woods are greater than Australian hardwoods but lower than temperate woods. It is difficult to define a relationship between permeability and mass diffusivity.

Keywords: tropical woods, sorption isotherm, diffusion coefficient, gas permeability, Central Africa

Procedia PDF Downloads 496

Authors: Iman Nezamzadeh, Ali Faghih, Behnam Oveisi

Abstract:

In order to reduce earthquake hazards in urban areas, it is necessary to perform comprehensive studies to understand the dynamics of the active faults and identify potentially high risk areas. The fault slip-rates in Late Quaternary sediment are critical indicators of seismic hazard and also provide valuable data to recognize young crustal deformations. To measure slip-rates accurately, is needed to displacement of geomorphic markers and ages of quaternary sediment samples of alluvial deposit that deformed by movements on fault. In this study we produced information about Intermediate term slip rate of Sabzpushan Fault Zone (SPF) within the central part of the Zagros Mountains of Iran using OSL dating technique to make better analysis of seismic hazard and seismic risk reduction for Shiraz city. For this purpose identifiable geomorphic fluvial surfaces help us to provide a reference frame to determine differential or absolute horizontal and vertical deformation. Optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) is an alternative and independent method of determining the burial age of mineral grains in Quaternary sediments. Field observation and satellite imagery show geomorphic markers that deformed horizontally along the Sabzpoushan Fault. Here, drag folds is forming because of evaporites material of Miocen Formation. We estimate 2.8±0.5 mm/yr (mm/y) horizontal slip rate along the Sabzpushan fault zone, where ongoing deformation is involve with drug folding. The Soltan synclinal structure, close to the Sabzpushan fault, shows slight uplift rate due to active core-extrousion.

Keywords: slip rate, active tectonics, OSL, geomorphic markers, Sabzpushan Fault Zone, Zagros, Iran

Procedia PDF Downloads 351

Authors: Mohkammad Nur Cahyadi, Imam Wahyu Farid, Ronny Mardianto, Agung Budi Cahyono, Eko Yuli Handoko, Daud Wahyu Imani, Arizal Bawazir, Luki Adi Triawan

Abstract:

Unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) technology has cost efficiency and data retrieval time advantages. Using technologies such as UAV, GNSS, and LiDAR will later be combined into one of the newest technologies to cover each other's deficiencies. This integration system aims to increase the accuracy of calculating the volume of the land stockpile of PT. Garam (Salt Company). The use of UAV applications to obtain geometric data and capture textures that characterize the structure of objects. This study uses the Taror 650 Iron Man drone with four propellers, which can fly for 15 minutes. LiDAR can classify based on the number of image acquisitions processed in the software, utilizing photogrammetry and structural science principles from Motion point cloud technology. LiDAR can perform data acquisition that enables the creation of point clouds, three-dimensional models, Digital Surface Models, Contours, and orthomosaics with high accuracy. LiDAR has a drawback in the form of coordinate data positions that have local references. Therefore, researchers use GNSS, LiDAR, and drone multi-sensor technology to map the stockpile of salt on open land and warehouses every year, carried out by PT. Garam twice, where the previous process used terrestrial methods and manual calculations with sacks. Research with LiDAR needs to be combined with UAV to overcome data acquisition limitations because it only passes through the right and left sides of the object, mainly when applied to a salt stockpile. The UAV is flown to assist data acquisition with a wide coverage with the help of integration of the 200-gram LiDAR system so that the flying angle taken can be optimal during the flight process. Using LiDAR for low-cost mapping surveys will make it easier for surveyors and academics to obtain pretty accurate data at a more economical price. As a survey tool, LiDAR is included in a tool with a low price, around 999 USD; this device can produce detailed data. Therefore, to minimize the operational costs of using LiDAR, surveyors can use Low-Cost LiDAR, GNSS, and UAV at a price of around 638 USD. The data generated by this sensor is in the form of a visualization of an object shape made in three dimensions. This study aims to combine Low-Cost GPS measurements with Low-Cost LiDAR, which are processed using free user software. GPS Low Cost generates data in the form of position-determining latitude and longitude coordinates. The data generates X, Y, and Z values to help georeferencing process the detected object. This research will also produce LiDAR, which can detect objects, including the height of the entire environment in that location. The results of the data obtained are calibrated with pitch, roll, and yaw to get the vertical height of the existing contours. This study conducted an experimental process on the roof of a building with a radius of approximately 30 meters.

Keywords: LiDAR, unmanned aerial vehicle, low-cost GNSS, contour

Procedia PDF Downloads 95

Authors: Jungyeol Hong, Dongjoo Park

Abstract:

The urban transit system is a critical part of a solution to the economic, energy, and environmental challenges. Furthermore, it ultimately contributes the improvement of people’s quality of lives. For taking these kinds of advantages, the city of Seoul has tried to construct an integrated transit system including both subway and buses. The effort led to the fact that approximately 6.9 million citizens use the integrated transit system every day for their trips. Diagnosing the current transit network is a significant task to provide more convenient and pleasant transit environment. Therefore, the critical objective of this study is to establish a methodological framework for the analysis of an integrated bus-subway network and to examine the relationship between subway ridership and parameters such as network topology measures, bus demand, and a variety of commercial business facilities. Regarding a statistical approach to estimate subway ridership at a station level, many previous studies relied on Ordinary Least Square regression, but there was lack of studies considering the endogeneity issues which might show in the subway ridership prediction model. This study focused on both discovering the impacts of integrated transit network topology measures and endogenous effect of bus demand on subway ridership. It could ultimately contribute to developing more accurate subway ridership estimation accounting for its statistical bias. The spatial scope of the study covers Seoul city in South Korea, and it includes 243 subway stations and 10,120 bus stops with the temporal scope set during twenty-four hours with one-hour interval time panels each. The subway and bus ridership information in detail was collected from the Seoul Smart Card data in 2015 and 2016. First, integrated subway-bus network topology measures which have characteristics regarding connectivity, centrality, transitivity, and reciprocity were estimated based on the complex network theory. The results of integrated transit network topology analysis were compared to subway-only network topology. Also, the non-recursive approach which is Three-Stage Least Square was applied to develop the daily subway ridership model as capturing the endogeneity between bus and subway demands. Independent variables included roadway geometry, commercial business characteristics, social-economic characteristics, safety index, transit facility attributes, and dummies for seasons and time zone. Consequently, it was found that network topology measures were significant size effect. Especially, centrality measures showed that the elasticity was a change of 4.88% for closeness centrality, 24.48% for betweenness centrality while the elasticity of bus ridership was 8.85%. Moreover, it was proved that bus demand and subway ridership were endogenous in a non-recursive manner as showing that predicted bus ridership and predicted subway ridership is statistically significant in OLS regression models. Therefore, it shows that three-stage least square model appears to be a plausible model for efficient subway ridership estimation. It is expected that the proposed approach provides a reliable guideline that can be used as part of the spectrum of tools for evaluating a city-wide integrated transit network.

Keywords: integrated transit system, network topology measures, three-stage least squared, endogeneity, subway ridership

Procedia PDF Downloads 177

Authors: Abdul Wajid Ali

Abstract:

Supersonic flight promises speed, but the design of the air inlet faces an obstacle: shock waves. They prevent air flow in the mixed compression ports, which reduces engine performance. Our research investigates this using supersonic wind tunnels and schlieren imaging to reveal the complex dance between shock waves and airflow. The findings show clear patterns of shock wave formation influenced by internal/external pressure surfaces. We looked at the boundary layer, the slow-moving air near the inlet walls, and its interaction with shock waves. In addition, the study emphasizes the dependence of the shock wave behaviour on the Mach number, which highlights the need for adaptive models. This knowledge is key to optimizing the combined compression inputs, paving the way for more powerful and efficient supersonic vehicles. Future engineers can use this knowledge to improve existing designs and explore innovative configurations for next-generation ultrasonic applications.

Keywords: oblique shock formation, boundary layer interaction, schlieren images, double wedge surface

Procedia PDF Downloads 65

Authors: Theophilus Adjirackor, Frederic Sam, Irene Opoku-Ntim, David Okoh Kpeglo, Prince K. Gyekye, Frank K. Quashie, Kofi Ofori

Abstract:

Indoor radon concentrations were collected monthly over a period of one year in 10 different levels in an underground goldmine, and the data was analyzed using a four-moving average time series to determine the relationship between the depths of the underground mine and the indoor radon concentration. The detectors were installed in batches within four quarters. The measurements were carried out using LR115 solid-state nuclear track detectors. Statistical models are applied in the prediction and analysis of the radon concentration at various depths. The time series model predicted a positive relationship between the depth of the underground mine and the indoor radon concentration. Thus, elevated radon concentrations are expected at deeper levels of the underground mine, but the relationship was insignificant at the 5% level of significance with a negative adjusted R2 (R2 = – 0.021) due to an appropriate engineering and adequate ventilation rate in the underground mine.

Keywords: LR115, radon concentration, rime series, underground goldmine

Procedia PDF Downloads 46

Authors: A. Odoom, A. Salama, H. Ibrahim

Abstract:

Hydrogen is a clean source of energy for power production and transportation. The main source of hydrogen in this research is biodiesel. Glycerol also called glycerine is a by-product of biodiesel production by transesterification of vegetable oils and methanol. This is a reliable and environmentally-friendly source of hydrogen production than fossil fuels. A typical composition of crude glycerol comprises of glycerol, water, organic and inorganic salts, soap, methanol and small amounts of glycerides. Crude glycerol has limited industrial application due to its low purity thus, the usage of crude glycerol can significantly enhance the sustainability and production of biodiesel. Reforming techniques is an approach for hydrogen production mainly Steam Reforming (SR), Autothermal Reforming (ATR) and Partial Oxidation Reforming (POR). SR produces high hydrogen conversions and yield but is highly endothermic whereas POR is exothermic. On the downside, PO yields lower hydrogen as well as large amount of side reactions. ATR which is a fusion of partial oxidation reforming and steam reforming is thermally neutral because net reactor heat duty is zero. It has relatively high hydrogen yield, selectivity as well as limits coke formation. The complex chemical processes that take place during the production phases makes it relatively difficult to construct a reliable and robust numerical model. Numerical model is a tool to mimic reality and provide insight into the influence of the parameters. In this work, we introduce a finite volume numerical study for an 'in-house' lab-scale experiment of ATR. Previous numerical studies on this process have considered either using Comsol or nodal finite difference analysis. Since Comsol is a commercial package which is not readily available everywhere and lab-scale experiment can be considered well mixed in the radial direction. One spatial dimension suffices to capture the essential feature of ATR, in this work, we consider developing our own numerical approach using MATLAB. A continuum fixed bed reactor is modelled using MATLAB with both pseudo homogeneous and heterogeneous models. The drawback of nodal finite difference formulation is that it is not locally conservative which means that materials and momenta can be generated inside the domain as an artifact of the discretization. Control volume, on the other hand, is locally conservative and suites very well problems where materials are generated and consumed inside the domain. In this work, species mass balance, Darcy’s equation and energy equations are solved using operator splitting technique. Therefore, diffusion-like terms are discretized implicitly while advection-like terms are discretized explicitly. An upwind scheme is adapted for the advection term to ensure accuracy and positivity. Comparisons with the experimental data show very good agreements which build confidence in our modeling approach. The models obtained were validated and optimized for better results.

Keywords: autothermal reforming, crude glycerol, hydrogen, numerical model

Procedia PDF Downloads 140

Authors: Daniela Tapusi, Adrian Andronic, Naomi Tufan, Ruxandra Erbașu, Ioana Teodorescu

Abstract:

The proposed theme of this article falls within the policy of reducing carbon emissions imposed by the ‘Green New Deal’ by replacing structural elements made of energy-intensive materials with ecological materials. In this sense, wood has many qualities (high strength/mass and stiffness/mass ratio, low specific gravity, recovery/recycling) that make it competitive with classic building materials. The topological optimization of the linear glulam elements, resulting from different types of analysis (Finite Element Method, simple regression on metamodels), tests on models or by Monte-Carlo simulation, leads to a material reduction of more than 10%. This article proposes a method of obtaining topologically optimized shapes for different types of glued laminated timber beams. The results obtained will constitute the database for AI training.

Keywords: timber, glued laminated timber, artificial-intelligence, environment, carbon emissions

Procedia PDF Downloads 40

Authors: Marcelo Müller Beuren, José Luis Duarte Ribeiro

Abstract:

Studies point that Brazilian large airports are not managing their assets efficiently. Therefore, organizations seek improvements to raise their asset’s productivity. Hence, identification of assets useful life in airports becomes an important subject, since its accuracy leads to better maintenance plans and technological substitution, contribution to airport services management. However, current useful life prediction models do not converge in terms of determinant elements used, as they are particular to the studied situation. For that reason, the main objective of this paper is to identify the determinant elements for a useful life of major assets in airports. With that purpose, a case study was held in the key airport of the south of Brazil trough historical data analysis and specialist interview. This paper concluded that most of the assets useful life are determined by technical elements, maintenance cost, and operational costs, while few presented influence of technological obsolescence. As a highlight, it was possible to identify the determinant elements to be considered by a model which objective is to identify the useful life of airport’s major assets.

Keywords: airports, asset management, asset useful life

Procedia PDF Downloads 522

Authors: Ahmed Khalil, Elhamy Tarabees, Svetlana Kovacikova

Abstract:

The Red Sea Mountains have been famous for their ore deposits since ancient times. Also, petrographic analysis and previous potential field surveys indicated large unexplored accumulations of ore minerals in the area. Therefore, the main goal of the presented study is to contribute to the discovery of hitherto unknown ore mineral deposits in the Red Sea region. To achieve this goal, we used two geophysical techniques: land magnetic survey and magnetotelluric data. A high-resolution land magnetic survey has been acquired using two proton magnetometers, one instrument used as a base station for the diurnal correction and the other used to measure the magnetic field along the study area. Two hundred eighty land magnetic stations were measured over a mesh-like area with a 500m spacing interval. The necessary reductions concerning daily variation, regional gradient and time observation were applied. Then, the total intensity anomaly map was constructed and transformed into the reduced magnetic pole (RTP). The magnetic interpretation was carried out using the analytical signal as well as regional–residual separation is carried out using the power spectrum. Also, the tilt derivative method (TDR) technique is applied to delineate the structure and hidden anomalies. Data analysis has been performed using trend analysis and Euler deconvolution. The results indicate that magnetic contacts are not the dominant geological feature of the study area. The magnetotleruric survey consisted of two profiles with a total of 8 broadband measurement points with a duration of about 24 hours crossing a wadi um Gheig approximately 50 km south of El Quseir. Collected data have been inverted to the electrical resistivity model using the 3D modular 3D inversion technique ModEM. The model revealed a non-conductive body in its central part, probably corresponding to a dolerite dyke, with which possible ore mineralization could be related.

Keywords: magnetic survey, magnetotelluric, mineralization, 3d modeling

Procedia PDF Downloads 27

Authors: André Luís Brasil Cavalcante, Juan Felix Rodriguez Rebolledo, Lucas Parreira de Faria Borges

Abstract:

A methodology for the probabilistic analysis of active earth pressure on retaining wall for c-Φ soil backfill is described in this paper. The Rosenblueth point estimate method is used to measure the failure probability of a gravity retaining wall. The basic principle of this methodology is to use two point estimates, i.e., the standard deviation and the mean value, to examine a variable in the safety analysis. The simplicity of this framework assures to its wide application. For the calculation is required 2ⁿ repetitions during the analysis, since the system is governed by n variables. In this study, a probabilistic model based on the Rosenblueth approach for the computation of the overturning probability of failure of a retaining wall is presented. The obtained results have shown the advantages of this kind of models in comparison with the deterministic solution. In a relatively easy way, the uncertainty on the wall and fill parameters are taken into account, and some practical results can be obtained for the retaining structure design.

Keywords: retaining wall, active earth pressure, backfill, probabilistic analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 418

Authors: M. D. D. Chathurangi, M. G. K. Nayanathara, K. M. H. M. M. Gunapala, G. M. R. G. Dayananda, Kavinga Yapa Abeywardena, Deemantha Siriwardana

Abstract:

Due to the growing popularity of social media platforms at present, there are various concerns, mostly cyberbullying, spam, bot accounts, and the spread of incorrect information. To develop a risk score calculation system as a thorough method for deciphering and exposing unethical social media profiles, this research explores the most suitable algorithms to our best knowledge in detecting the mentioned concerns. Various multiple models, such as Naïve Bayes, CNN, KNN, Stochastic Gradient Descent, Gradient Boosting Classifier, etc., were examined, and the best results were taken into the development of the risk score system. For cyberbullying, the Logistic Regression algorithm achieved an accuracy of 84.9%, while the spam-detecting MLP model gained 98.02% accuracy. The bot accounts identifying the Random Forest algorithm obtained 91.06% accuracy, and 84% accuracy was acquired for fake news detection using SVM.

Keywords: cyberbullying, spam behavior, bot accounts, fake news, machine learning

Procedia PDF Downloads 36

Authors: Lígia Pimentel, Miguel Pereira, Manuela Pintado

Abstract:

Wheat germ is a by-product of wheat flour refining. Despite this by-product being a source of proteins, lipids, fibres and complex carbohydrates, and consequently a valuable ingredient to be used in Food Industry, only few applications have been studied. The main goal of this study was to assess the potential prebiotic effect of natural wheat germ. The prebiotic potential was evaluated by in vitro assays with individual microbial strains (Lactobacillus paracasei L26 and Lactobacillus casei L431). A simulated model of the gastrointestinal digestion was also used including the conditions present in the mouth (artificial saliva), oesophagus–stomach (artificial gastric juice), duodenum (artificial intestinal juice) and ileum. The effect of natural wheat germ and wheat germ after digestion on the growth of lactic acid bacteria was studied by growing those microorganisms in de Man, Rogosa and Sharpe (MRS) broth (with 2% wheat germ and 1% wheat germ after digestion) and incubating at 37 ºC for 48 h with stirring. A negative control consisting of MRS broth without glucose was used and the substrate was also compared to a commercial prebiotic fructooligosaccharides (FOS). Samples were taken at 0, 3, 6, 9, 12, 24 and 48 h for bacterial cell counts (CFU/mL) and pH measurement. Results obtained showed that wheat germ has a stimulatory effect on the bacteria tested, presenting similar (or even higher) results to FOS, when comparing to the culture medium without glucose. This was demonstrated by the viable cell counts and also by the decrease on the medium pH. Both L. paracasei L26 and L. casei L431 could use these compounds as a substitute for glucose with an enhancement of growth. In conclusion, we have shown that wheat germ stimulate the growth of probiotic lactic acid bacteria. In order to understand if the composition of gut bacteria is altered and if wheat germ could be used as potential prebiotic, further studies including faecal fermentations should be carried out. Nevertheless, wheat germ seems to have potential to be a valuable compound to be used in Food Industry, mainly in the Bakery Industry.

Keywords: by-products, functional ingredients, prebiotic potential, wheat germ

Procedia PDF Downloads 487

Authors: Bharatendra Rai

Abstract:

Predictive data analysis and modeling involving machine learning techniques become challenging in presence of too many explanatory variables or features. Presence of too many features in machine learning is known to not only cause algorithms to slow down, but they can also lead to decrease in model prediction accuracy. This study involves housing dataset with 79 quantitative and qualitative features that describe various aspects people consider while buying a new house. Boruta algorithm that supports feature selection using a wrapper approach build around random forest is used in this study. This feature selection process leads to 49 confirmed features which are then used for developing predictive random forest models. The study also explores five different data partitioning ratios and their impact on model accuracy are captured using coefficient of determination (r-square) and root mean square error (rsme).

Keywords: housing data, feature selection, random forest, Boruta algorithm, root mean square error

Procedia PDF Downloads 323

Authors: Bandreddy Anand Babu, Srinivasa Rao Mandadi, C. Pradeep Reddy, N. Ramesh Babu

Abstract:

In this paper quickly illustrate the correlation investigation of Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving and Average (ARIMA) and daptive Network Based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) models done by climate estimating. The climate determining is taken from University of Waterloo. The information is taken as Relative Humidity, Ambient Air Temperature, Barometric Pressure and Wind Direction utilized within this paper. The paper is carried out by analyzing the exhibitions are seen by demonstrating of ARIMA and ANIFIS model like with Sum of average of errors. Versatile Network Based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) demonstrating is carried out by Mat lab programming and Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving and Average (ARIMA) displaying is produced by utilizing XLSTAT programming. ANFIS is carried out in Fuzzy Logic Toolbox in Mat Lab programming.

Keywords: ARIMA, ANFIS, fuzzy surmising tool stash, weather forecasting, MATLAB

Procedia PDF Downloads 419

Authors: Hsiang-Yu Yuan, Marc Baguelin, Kin O. Kwok, Nimalan Arinaminpathy, Edwin Leeuwen, Steven Riley

Abstract:

Traditional syndromic surveillance for influenza has substantial public health value in characterizing epidemics. Because the relationship between syndromic incidence and the true infection events can vary from one population to another and from one year to another, recent studies rely on combining serological test results with syndromic data from traditional surveillance into epidemic models to make inference on epidemiological processes of influenza. However, despite the widespread availability of serological data, epidemic models have thus far not explicitly represented antibody titre levels and their correspondence with immunity. Most studies use dichotomized data with a threshold (Typically, a titre of 1:40 was used) to define individuals as likely recently infected and likely immune and further estimate the cumulative incidence. Underestimation of Influenza attack rate could be resulted from the dichotomized data. In order to improve the use of serosurveillance data, here, a refinement of the concept of the stratified immunity within an epidemic model for influenza transmission was proposed, such that all individual antibody titre levels were enumerated explicitly and mapped onto a variable scale of susceptibility in different age groups. Haemagglutination inhibition titres from 523 individuals and 465 individuals during pre- and post-pandemic phase of the 2009 pandemic in Hong Kong were collected. The model was fitted to serological data in age-structured population using Bayesian framework and was able to reproduce key features of the epidemics. The effects of age-specific antibody boosting and protection were explored in greater detail. RB was defined to be the effective reproductive number in the presence of stratified immunity and its temporal dynamics was compared to the traditional epidemic model using use dichotomized seropositivity data. Deviance Information Criterion (DIC) was used to measure the fitness of the model to serological data with different mechanisms of the serological response. The results demonstrated that the differential antibody response with age was present (ΔDIC = -7.0). The age-specific mixing patterns with children specific transmissibility, rather than pre-existing immunity, was most likely to explain the high serological attack rates in children and low serological attack rates in elderly (ΔDIC = -38.5). Our results suggested that the disease dynamics and herd immunity of a population could be described more accurately for influenza when the distribution of immunity was explicitly represented, rather than relying only on the dichotomous states 'susceptible' and 'immune' defined by the threshold titre (1:40) (ΔDIC = -11.5). During the outbreak, RB declined slowly from 1.22[1.16-1.28] in the first four months after 1st May. RB dropped rapidly below to 1 during September and October, which was consistent to the observed epidemic peak time in the late September. One of the most important challenges for infectious disease control is to monitor disease transmissibility in real time with statistics such as the effective reproduction number. Once early estimates of antibody boosting and protection are obtained, disease dynamics can be reconstructed, which are valuable for infectious disease prevention and control.

Keywords: effective reproductive number, epidemic model, influenza epidemic dynamics, stratified immunity

Procedia PDF Downloads 260

Authors: Eun Kyung Kim, Kyehan Rhee

Abstract:

Viscoelastic wall properties of the arterial plaques change as the disease progresses, and estimation of wall viscoelasticity can provide a valuable assessment tool for plaque rupture prediction. Cross section of the stenotic coronary artery was modeled based on the IVUS image, and the finite element analysis was performed to get wall deformation under pulsatile pressure. The effects of viscoelastic parameters of the plaque on luminal diameter variations were explored. The result showed that decrease of viscous effect reduced the phase angle between the pressure and displacement waveforms, and phase angle was dependent on the viscoelastic properties of the wall. Because viscous effect of tissue components could be identified using the phase angle difference, wall deformation waveform analysis may be applied to predict plaque wall composition change and vascular wall disease progression.

Keywords: atherosclerotic plaque, diameter variation, finite element method, viscoelasticity

Procedia PDF Downloads 216

Authors: Badiossadat Hassanpour, Reza Sirjani, Nangkuala Utaberta

Abstract:

The avant-garde educational systems are striving to find a life long learning methods. Different fields and majors have test variety of proposed models, and found their difficulties and strengths. Architecture as a critical stage of education due to its characteristics which are learning by doing and critique based education and evaluation is out of this study procedure. Learning contracts is a new alternative form of evaluation of students’ achievements, while it acts as agreement about learning goals. Obtained results from studies in different fields which confirm its positive impact on students' learning in those fields and positively affected students' motivation and confidence in meeting their own learning needs, prompted us to implement this model in architecture design studio. In this implemented contract to the studio, students were asked to use the existing possibility of contract to have self assessment and examine their professional development to identify whether they are deficient or they would like to develop more expertise. The evidences of this research as well indicate that students feel positive about the learning contract and see it accommodating their individual learning needs.

Keywords: contract (LC), architecture design studio, education, student-centered learning

Procedia PDF Downloads 439

Authors: J. T. Johnson, R. A. Atule, E. Gbodo

Abstract:

The widespread problem of infant malnutrition in developing countries has stirred efforts in research, development and extension by both local and international organizations. As a result, the formulation and development of nutritious weaning foods from local and readily available raw materials which are cost effective has become imperative in many developing countries. Thus, local and readily available raw materials where used to compound and develop nutritious new infant formulae. The materials used for this study include maize, millet, cowpea, pumpkin, fingerlings, and fish bone. The materials where dried and blended to powder. The powders were weighed in the ratio of 4:4:4:3:1:1 respectively and were then mixed properly. Analysis of nutritive value was conducted on the formulae and compared with NAN-2 standard and results reveals that the formulae had reasonable amount of moisture, lipids, carbohydrate, protein, and fibre. Although NAN-2 was superior in both carbohydrate and protein, the new infant formula was higher in mineral elements, vitamins, fibre, and lipids. All the essentials vitamins and both macro and micro minerals where found in appreciable quantity capable of meeting the biochemical and physiological demand of the body while the anti-nutrients composition were significantly below FAO and WHO safe limits. Finally, the compounded infant formulae was feed to a set of albino Wistar rats while some other set of rats was feed with NAN-2 for the period of twenty seven (27) days and body weight was measure at three days intervals. The results of body weight changes was spectacular as their body weight over shot or almost double that of those animals that were feed with NAN-2 at each point of measurement. The results suggest that the widespread problem of infant malnutrition in the developing world especially among the low income segment of the society can now be reduced if not totally eradicated since nutritive and cost effective weaning formulae can be prepared locally from common readily available materials.

Keywords: formulation, nutritive value, local, materials

Procedia PDF Downloads 378

Authors: Yichao Liu, Peter Fransson, Julian Heidecke, Jonas Wallin, Joacim Rockloev

Abstract:

Dengue, a mosquito-borne viral disease, poses a significant public health challenge in endemic tropical or subtropical countries, including Sri Lanka. To reveal insights into the complexity of the dynamics of this disease and study the drivers, a comprehensive model capable of both robust forecasting and insightful inference of drivers while capturing the co-circulating of several virus strains is essential. However, existing studies mostly focus on only one aspect at a time and do not integrate and carry insights across the siloed approach. While mechanistic models are developed to capture immunity dynamics, they are often oversimplified and lack integration of all the diverse drivers of disease transmission. On the other hand, purely data-driven methods lack constraints imposed by immuno-epidemiological processes, making them prone to overfitting and inference bias. This research presents a hybrid model that combines machine learning techniques with mechanistic modelling to overcome the limitations of existing approaches. Leveraging eight years of newly reported dengue case data, along with socioeconomic factors, such as human mobility, weekly climate data from 2011 to 2018, genetic data detecting the introduction and presence of new strains, and estimates of seropositivity for different districts in Sri Lanka, we derive a data-driven vector (SEI) to human (SEIR) model across 16 regions in Sri Lanka at the weekly time scale. By conducting ablation studies, the lag effects allowing delays up to 12 weeks of time-varying climate factors were determined. The model demonstrates superior predictive performance over a pure machine learning approach when considering lead times of 5 and 10 weeks on data withheld from model fitting. It further reveals several interesting interpretable findings of drivers while adjusting for the dynamics and influences of immunity and introduction of a new strain. The study uncovers strong influences of socioeconomic variables: population density, mobility, household income and rural vs. urban population. The study reveals substantial sensitivity to the diurnal temperature range and precipitation, while mean temperature and humidity appear less important in the study location. Additionally, the model indicated sensitivity to vegetation index, both max and average. Predictions on testing data reveal high model accuracy. Overall, this study advances the knowledge of dengue transmission in Sri Lanka and demonstrates the importance of incorporating hybrid modelling techniques to use biologically informed model structures with flexible data-driven estimates of model parameters. The findings show the potential to both inference of drivers in situations of complex disease dynamics and robust forecasting models.

Keywords: compartmental model, climate, dengue, machine learning, social-economic

Procedia PDF Downloads 84

Authors: A. Nabhan, Mohamed R. El-Sharkawy, A. Rashed

Abstract:

The main aim of this paper is to dedicate the belt drive system faults like cogs missing, misalignment and belt worm using vibration analysis technique. Experimentally, the belt drive test-rig is equipped to measure vibrations signals under different operating conditions. Finite element 3D model of belt drive system is created and vibration response analyzed using commercial finite element software ABAQUS/CAE.  Root mean square (RMS) and Crest Factor will serve as indicators of average amplitude of envelope analysis signals. The vibration signals pattern obtained from the simulation model and experimental data have the same characteristics. It can be concluded that each case of the RMS is more effective in detecting the defect for acceleration response. While Crest Factor parameter has a response with the displacement and velocity of vibration signals. Also it can be noticed that the model has difficulty in completing the solution when the misalignment angle is higher than 1 degree.

Keywords: simulation model, misalignment, cogs missing, vibration analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 284

Authors: Amaba, Marinela C., Espino, Gianne Ericka S. J. Valencia, Zeia Beatriz C.

Abstract:

This study aims to determine the moderating role of attachment style on the relationship between psychological symptoms and well-being of mental health practitioners in rehabilitation centers that are accredited of the Department of Health in Pampanga. Using the data gathered from 46 mental health practitioners, multiple regression models were conducted to test the main and moderating effects of attachment styles. The findings show that all three psychological symptoms namely depression, anxiety, and stress have main effects on their general well-being on a negative direction. However, attachment style did not moderate the relationship between the psychological symptoms and general well-being. On one hand, results about the relationship of psychological symptoms and well-being are consistent to previous findings of other studies while on the other hand, results in moderation were contradicting.

Keywords: attachment style, psychological symptoms, well-being, mental health practitioners, rehabilitation centers

Procedia PDF Downloads 553