Search results for: earthquake risk management

Authors: Yanqun Li, Hong Geng

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The occurrence of Wenchuan earthquake in 2008 has led to severe damage to the rural areas of Chengdu city, such as the rupture of the social network, the stagnation of economic production and the rupture of living space. The post-disaster reconstruction has become a sustainable issue. As an important link to maintain the order of rural social development, social network should be an important content of post-disaster reconstruction. Therefore, this paper takes rural reconstruction communities in earthquake-stricken areas of Chengdu as the research object and adopts sociological research methods such as field survey, observation and interview to try to understand the transformation of rural social relations network under the influence of earthquake and its impact on rural space. It has found that rural societies under the earthquake generally experienced three phases: the break of stable social relations, the transition of temporary non-normal state, and the reorganization of social networks. The connotation of phased rural social relations also changed accordingly: turn to a new division of labor on the social orientation, turn to a capital flow and redistribution in new production mode on the capital orientation, and turn to relative decentralization after concentration on the spatial dimension. Along with such changes, rural areas have emerged some social issues such as the alienation of competition in the new industry division, the low social connection, the significant redistribution of capital, and the lack of public space. Based on a comprehensive review of these issues, this paper proposes the corresponding response mechanism. First of all, a reasonable division of labor should be established within the villages to realize diversified commodity supply. Secondly, the villages should adjust the industrial type to promote the equitable participation of capital allocation groups. Finally, external public spaces should be added to strengthen the field of social interaction within the communities.

Keywords: social relations, social support networks, industrial division, capital allocation, public space

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Authors: B. Kulaga, A. Cinti, F. J. Mazzocchini

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Despite the fact that growing academic attention on dark tourism is a fairly recent phenomenon, among the various reasons for travelling death-related ones, are very ancient. Furthermore, the darker side of human nature has always been fascinated and curious regarding death, or at least, man has always tried to learn lessons from death. This study proposes to describe the phenomenon of dark tourism related to the 2016 earthquake in Central Italy, deadly for 302 people and highly destructive for the rural areas of Lazio, Marche, and Umbria Regions. The primary objective is to examine the motivation-experience relationship in a dark tourism site, using the structural equation model, applied for the first time to a dark tourism research in 2016, in a study conducted after the Beichuan earthquake. The findings of the current study are derived from the calculations conducted on primary data compiled from 350 tourists in the areas mostly affected by the 2016 earthquake, including the town of Amatrice, near the epicenter, Castelluccio, Norcia, Ussita and Visso, through conducting a Likert scale survey. Furthermore, we use the structural equation model to examine the motivation behind dark travel and how this experience can influence the motivation and emotional reaction of tourists. Expected findings are in line with the previous study mentioned above, indicating that: not all tourists visit the thanatourism sites for dark tourism purpose, tourists’ emotional reactions influence more heavily the emotional tourist experience than cognitive experiences do, and curious visitors are likely to engage cognitively by learning about the incident or related issues.

Keywords: dark tourism, emotional reaction, experience, motivation, structural equation model

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Authors: Noor A. Hakim

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Several studies in the developed countries investigated the prevalence of diabetes and obesity among individuals from different socioeconomic levels and suggested lower rates among the higher socioeconomic groups. However, studies evaluating diabetes risk and prevalence of obesity among the population of middle- to high-income status in developing countries are limited. The aim of this study is to evaluate the risk of developing type-2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and the weight status of female students in private universities in Jeddah City, Saudi Arabia. This is a cross-sectional study of 121 female students aged ≤ 25 years old was conducted; participants were recruited from two private universities. Diabetes risk was evaluated using the Finnish Diabetes Risk Score. Anthropometric measurements were assessed, and body-mass-index (BMI) was calculated. Diabetes risk scores indicated that 35.5% of the female students had a slightly elevated risk, and 10.8% had a moderate to high risk to develop T2DM. One-third of the females (29.7%) were overweight or obese. The majority of the normal weight and underweight groups were classified to have a low risk of diabetes, 22.2% of the overweight participants were classified to have moderate to high risk, and over half of the obese participants (55.5%) were classified to be at the moderate to high-risk category. Conclusions: Given that diabetes risk is alarming among the population in Saudi Arabia, healthcare providers should utilize a simple screening tool to identify high-risk individuals and initiate diabetes preventive strategies to prevent, or delay, the onset of T2DM and improve the quality of life.

Keywords: risk of type 2 diabetes, weight status, college students, socioeconomic status

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Authors: Tzong-Ying Hao, Mohammad T. Rahmani

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This article presents the structural health monitoring (SHM) method based on changes in wave traveling times (wave method) within a layered 1-D shear beam model of structure. The wave method measures the velocity of shear wave propagating in a building from the impulse response functions (IRF) obtained from recorded data at different locations inside the building. If structural damage occurs in a structure, the velocity of wave propagation through it changes. The wave method analysis is performed on the responses of Torre Central building, a 9-story shear wall structure located in Santiago, Chile. Because events of different intensity (ambient vibrations, weak and strong earthquake motions) have been recorded at this building, therefore it can serve as a full-scale benchmark to validate the structural health monitoring method utilized. The analysis of inter-story drifts and the Fourier spectra for the EW and NS motions during 2010 Chile earthquake are presented. The results for the NS motions suggest the coupling of translation and torsion responses. The system frequencies (estimated from the relative displacement response of the 8th-floor with respect to the basement from recorded data) were detected initially decreasing approximately 24% in the EW motion. Near the end of shaking, an increase of about 17% was detected. These analysis and results serve as baseline indicators of the occurrence of structural damage. The detected changes in wave velocities of the shear beam model are consistent with the observed damage. However, the 1-D shear beam model is not sufficient to simulate the coupling of translation and torsion responses in the NS motion. The wave method is proven for actual implementation in structural health monitoring systems based on carefully assessing the resolution and accuracy of the model for its effectiveness on post-earthquake damage detection in buildings.

Keywords: Chile earthquake, damage detection, earthquake response, impulse response function, shear beam model, shear wave velocity, structural health monitoring, torre central building, wave method

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Authors: Nilamadhab Mohanty

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It is essential to use message formats that make communication understandable and correct. It is because; the information format can influence consumer decision on the purchase of a product. This study combines information from qualitative inquiry, media trend analysis, eye tracking experiment, and questionnaire data to examine the impact of specific message format and consumer perceived risk on attention to the information and risk retention. We investigated the influence of message framing (goal framing, attribute framing, and mix framing) on consumer memory, study time, and decisional uncertainty while deciding on the purchase of drugs. Furthermore, we explored the impact of consumer perceived risk (associated with the use of the drug, i.e., RISK-AB and perceived risk associated with the non-use of the drug, i.e., RISK-EB) on message format preference. The study used eye-tracking methods to understand the differences in message processing. Findings of the study suggest that the message format influences information processing, and participants' risk perception impacts message format preference. Eye tracking can be used to understand the format differences and design effective advertisements.

Keywords: message framing, consumer perceived risk, advertising, eye tracking

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Authors: L. Lindsay, S. A. Coleman, D. Kerr, B. J. Taylor, A. Moorhead

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Cognitive decline and frailty is apparent in older adults leading to an increased likelihood of the risk of falling. Currently health care professionals have to make professional decisions regarding such risks, and hence make difficult decisions regarding the future welfare of the ageing population. This study uses health data from The Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing (TILDA), focusing on adults over the age of 50 years, in order to analyse health risk factors and predict the likelihood of falls. This prediction is based on the use of machine learning algorithms whereby health risk factors are used as inputs to predict the likelihood of falling. Initial results show that health risk factors such as long-term health issues contribute to the number of falls. The identification of such health risk factors has the potential to inform health and social care professionals, older people and their family members in order to mitigate daily living risks.

Keywords: classification, falls, health risk factors, machine learning, older adults

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Authors: Joshua Midha

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This paper provides an evaluation of an intervention designed to promote a risk-realistic environment for women in the workplace and regulate their risk-related decision-making. In past research, women -specifically women of color- are highly risk-averse, and this may prove to be an innate obstacle in gender progress in corporations. By helping women see the risks and the benefits and increasing potential benefits, we can increase the chances of success in the workplace. Our intervention was a success and significantly increased comfort, trust, and frequency in the use of decision-making skills in the workplace. In this paper, we explore the intervention, the methods, the results, and the implications.

Keywords: behavioral economics, decision support, risk, gender equality

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Authors: Tzong-Ying Hao, Mohammad T. Rahmani

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The Torre Central building is a 9-story shear wall structure located in Santiago, Chile, and has been instrumented since 2009. Events of different intensity (ambient vibrations, weak and strong earthquake motions) have been recorded, and thus the building can serve as a full-scale benchmark to evaluate the structural health monitoring method developed. The first part of this article presents an analysis of inter-story drifts, and of changes in the first system frequencies (estimated from the relative displacement response of the 8th-floor with respect to the basement from recorded data) as baseline indicators of the occurrence of damage. During 2010 Chile earthquake the system frequencies were detected decreasing approximately 24% in the EW and 27% in NS motions. Near the end of shaking, an increase of about 17% in the EW motion was detected. The structural health monitoring (SHM) method based on changes in wave traveling time (wave method) within a layered shear beam model of structure is presented in the second part of this article. If structural damage occurs the velocity of wave propagated through the structure changes. The wave method measures the velocities of shear wave propagation from the impulse responses generated by recorded data at various locations inside the building. Our analysis and results show that the detected changes in wave velocities are consistent with the observed damages. On this basis, the wave method is proven for actual implementation in structural health monitoring systems.

Keywords: Chile earthquake, damage detection, earthquake response, impulse response, layered shear beam, structural health monitoring, Torre Central building, wave method, wave travel time

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Authors: Armin Rahimi

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The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) has been a very successful project in determining math redistribution within the Earth system. Large deformations caused by earthquakes are in the high frequency band. Unfortunately, GRACE is only capable to provide reliable estimate at the low-to-medium frequency band for the gravitational changes. In this study, we computed the gravity changes after the 2012 Mw8.6 Indian Ocean earthquake off-Sumatra using the GRACE Level-2 monthly spherical harmonic (SH) solutions released by the University of Texas Center for Space Research (UTCSR). Moreover, we calculated gravity changes using different fault models derived from teleseismic data. The model predictions showed non-negligible discrepancies in gravity changes. However, after removing high-frequency signals, using Gaussian filtering 350 km commensurable GRACE spatial resolution, the discrepancies vanished, and the spatial patterns of total gravity changes predicted from all slip models became similar at the spatial resolution attainable by GRACE observations, and predicted-gravity changes were consistent with the GRACE-detected gravity changes. Nevertheless, the fault models, in which give different slip amplitudes, proportionally lead to different amplitude in the predicted gravity changes.

Keywords: undersea earthquake, GRACE observation, gravity change, dislocation model, slip distribution

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Authors: Yung-Feng Yen, Yun-Ju Lai

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Background: Metabolic syndrome (MetS) is reversible; however, the effect of changes in MetS status on the risk of incident cancer has not been extensively studied. We aimed to investigate the effects of changes in MetS status on incident cancer risk. Methods: This prospective, longitudinal study used data from Taiwan’s MJ cohort of 157,915 adults recruited from 2002–2016 who had repeated MetS measurements 5.2 (±3.5) years apart and were followed up for the new onset of cancer over 8.2 (±4.5) years. A new diagnosis of incident cancer in study individuals was confirmed by their pathohistological reports. The participants’ MetS status included MetS-free (n=119,331), MetS-developed (n=14,272), MetS-recovered (n=7,914), and MetS-persistent (n=16,398). We used the Fine-Gray sub-distribution method, with death as the competing risk, to determine the association between MetS changes and the risk of incident cancer. Results: During the follow-up period, 7,486 individuals had new development of cancer. Compared with the MetS-free group, MetS-persistent individuals had a significantly higher risk of incident cancer (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 1.10; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.03-1.18). Considering the effect of dynamic changes in MetS status on the risk of specific cancer types, MetS persistence was significantly associated with a higher risk of incident colon and rectum, kidney, pancreas, uterus, and thyroid cancer. The risk of kidney, uterus, and thyroid cancer in MetS-recovered individuals was higher than in those who remained MetS but lower than MetS-persistent individuals. Conclusions: Persistent MetS is associated with a higher risk of incident cancer, and recovery from MetS may reduce the risk. The findings of our study suggest that it is imperative for individuals with pre-existing MetS to seek treatment for this condition to reduce the cancer risk.

Keywords: metabolic syndrome change, cancer, risk factor, cohort study

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Authors: Sana Gul, Sheeba Murad, Aneela Javed

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Introduction: Human Papilloma Virus (HPV) is small DNA virus mostly infecting mucosa and cutaneous keratinocytes. So far, more than 200 Human papillomaviruses are known. HPV have been divided into high- and low-risk on the basis of their oncogenic potential. High risk HPV is considered to be the main etiological cause for cervical cancer. Objective: Current study was designed to screen the local cervical cancer patients from the twin cities of Pakistan for the occurance of high risk HPV. Methodology: A total of 67 formalin fixed paraffin-embedded samples of cervical cancer biopsies were obtained from the government hospitals in Islamabad and Rawalpindi. Cervical cancer biopsies were examined for the presence of HPV DNA. Polymerase chain reaction (PCR) was used for the amplification of a region in the HPV-L1 gene for the general detection of the Papilloma virus and for the genotype specific detection of high risk HPV 16 and 18 using the GP5/GP6 primers and genotype specific primers respectively. Results: HPV DNA was detected in 59 out of 67 samples analyzed. 30 samples showed the presence of HPV16 while 22 samples were positive for HPV 18 . HPV subtype could not be determined in 7 samples. Conclusion: Our results show a strong association between HPV infection and cervical cancer among women in twin cities of Pakistan. One way to minimize the disease burden in relation to HPV infection in Pakistani population is the use of prophylactic vaccines and routine screening. An early diagnosis of HPV infection will allow better health management to reduce the risk of developing cervical cancer.

Keywords: cervical cancer, Pakistan, human papillomavirus, HPV 16

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Authors: My Hachem Aouragh, Hind Ragragui, Abdellah El-Hmaidi, Ali Essahlaoui, Abdelhadi El Ouali

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This study investigates soil erosion susceptibility in the Oued Mikkes watershed, located in the Meknes-Fez region of northern Morocco, utilizing advanced techniques such as deep learning algorithms and remote sensing integrated within Geographic Information Systems (GIS). Spanning approximately 1,920 km², the watershed is characterized by a semi-arid Mediterranean climate with irregular rainfall and limited water resources. The waterways within the watershed, especially the Oued Mikkes, are vital for agricultural irrigation and potable water supply. The research assesses the extent of erosion risk upstream of the Sidi Chahed dam while developing a spatial model of soil loss. Several important factors, including topography, land use/land cover, and climate, were analyzed, with data on slope, NDVI, and rainfall erosivity processed using deep learning models (DLNN, CNN, RNN). The results demonstrated excellent predictive performance, with AUC values of 0.92, 0.90, and 0.88 for DLNN, CNN, and RNN, respectively. The resulting susceptibility maps provide critical insights for soil management and conservation strategies, identifying regions at high risk for erosion across 24% of the study area. The most high-risk areas are concentrated on steep slopes, particularly near the Ifrane district and the surrounding mountains, while low-risk areas are located in flatter regions with less rugged topography. The combined use of remote sensing and deep learning offers a powerful tool for accurate erosion risk assessment and resource management in the Mikkes watershed, highlighting the implications of soil erosion on dam siltation and operational efficiency.

Keywords: soil erosion, GIS, remote sensing, deep learning, Mikkes Watershed, Morocco

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Authors: Oguzhan Cepni, Doruk Kucuksarac, M. Hasan Yilmaz

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Changes in the global risk appetite cause co-movement in emerging market risk premiums. However, the sensitivity of the changes in risk premium to the global risk appetite may vary across emerging markets. In this study, how the global risk appetite affects Credit Default Swap (CDS) premiums in emerging markets are analyzed using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and rolling regressions. The PCA results indicate that the first common component derived by the PCA accounts for almost 76 percent of the common variation in CDS premiums. Additionally, the explanatory power of the first factor seems to be high over the sample period. However, the sensitivity to the global risk factor tends to change over time and across countries. In this regard, fixed effects panel regressions are used to identify the macroeconomic factors driving the heterogeneity across emerging markets. The panel regression results point to the significance of government debt to GDP and international reserves to GDP in explaining sensitivity. Accordingly, countries with lower government debt and higher reserves tend to be less subject to the variations in the global risk appetite.

Keywords: credit default swaps, emerging markets, principal components analysis, sovereign risk

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Authors: Mehrnaz Farzingohar, Mehran Yasemi, Ahmad Savari

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The oil products are imported and exported via Rajaee’s tanker terminal. Within loading and discharging in several cases the oil is released into the berths and made oil spills. The spills are distributed within short time and seriously affected Rajaee port’s environment and even extended areas. The trajectory and fate of oil spills investigated by modeling and parted by three risk levels base on the modeling results. First GNOME (General NOAA Operational Modeling Environment) applied to trajectory the liquid oil. Second, ALOHA (Areal Location Of Hazardous Atmosphere) air quality model, is integrated to predict the oil evaporation path within the air. Base on the identified zones the high risk areas are signed by colored dots which their densities calculated and clarified on a map which displayed the harm places. Wind and water circulation moved the pollution to the East of Rajaee Port that accumulated about 12 km of coastline. Approximately 20 km of north east of Qeshm Island shore is covered by the three levels of risky areas. Since the main wind direction is SSW the pollution pushed to the east and the highest risk zones formed on the crests edges hence the low risk appeared on the concavities. This assessment help the management and emergency systems to monitor the exposure places base on the priority factors and find the best approaches to protect the environment.

Keywords: oil spill, modeling, pollution, risk assessment

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Authors: Ibrahim Mohammed

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Background: Diabetes mellitus is a chronic disease that can cause devastating secondary complications, reducing the quality and length of life as well as increasing medical costs for the patient and society. The guidelines recommend both clinical and preventive strategies for diabetes management and are regularly updated. The aim of the study is to assess the level of adherence of physicians to American Diabetes Association Guidelines. Method: Observational multicenter retrospective study will be conducted among different hospitals in the central region. Patient data will be collected from the records of the last three years (2017- 2020). Records will be selected randomly after a complete randomized design. The study focuses on the management of type 2 according to ADA not changed in the last three updating; those standards; all patients should be taking Metformin 1500 to 2000 mg/day as recommended dose and should be received a high dose of statin if the high risk to ASCVD or moderate statin if not at risk, patients with hypertension and diabetes should taking ACE or ARBS. Result: The study aimed to evaluate the commitment of physicians in the central region to the ADA. Out of the 153 selected patients, only 17 % were able to control their diabetes with an average A1c below 7. ADA stated that to reach the minimum benefit of using Metformin, the daily dose should be between 1500 and 2000 mg. Results showed that 110 patients were on Metformin, where 68% of them were on the recommended dose. ADA recommended the intake of high statin for diabetic patients with ASCVD risk, while diabetic patients without ASCVD risk should be on a moderate statin. Results showed that 61.5% of patients with ASCVD risk were at high statin while only 36% of patients without ASCVD risk were at moderate statin. Results showed that 89 patients have hypertension, and 80% of them are getting ACE/ARBs as recommended by the ADA. Recommendation: It is necessary to implement periodic training courses for some physicians to enhance and update their knowledge.

Keywords: American Diabetic Association, diabetes mellitus, atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, ACE inhibitors

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Authors: Seyed Abdolreza Mosavi, Alireza Babakhan, Elham Sadat Hoseinifard

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Knowledge-based firms need to design mechanisms for continuous absorptive and creation of knowledge in order to ensure their survival in the competitive arena and to follow the path of development. Considering the project-oriented nature of product development activities in knowledge-based firms on the one hand and the importance of analyzing the factors affecting knowledge absorptive capacity in these firms on the other, the purpose of this study is to identify and classify the factors affecting project management practices on absorptive knowledge capacity. For this purpose, we have studied and reviewed the theoretical literature in the field of project management and absorptive knowledge capacity so as to clarify its dimensions and indexes. Then, using the ISM method, the relationship between them has been studied. To collect data, 21 questionnaires were distributed in project-oriented knowledge-based companies. The results of the ISM method analysis provide a model for the relationship between project management activities and knowledge absorptive capacity, which includes knowledge acquisition capacity, scope management, time management, cost management, quality management, human resource management, communications management, procurement management, risk management, stakeholders management and integration management. Having conducted the MICMAC analysis, we divided the variables into three groups of independent, relational and dependent variables and came up with no variables to be included in the group of autonomous variables.

Keywords: knowledge absorptive capacity, project management practices, knowledge-based firms, interpretive structural modeling

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Authors: Rupesh K. Chaudhary, Narinder P. Jain, Rajesh Mahajan, Rajat Manchanda

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Introduction: Delirium is a complex, multifactorial neuropsychiatric syndrome comprising a broad range of cognitive and neurobehavioral symptoms. In critically ill patients, it may develop secondary to multiple predisposing factors. Although it can be transient and irreversible but if left untreated may lead to long term cognitive dysfunction. Early identification and assessment of risk factors usually help in appropriate management of delirium which in turn leads to decreased hospital stay, cost of therapy and mortality. Aim and Objective: Aim of the present study was to estimate the incidence of delirium using a validated scale in medical ICU patients and to determine the associated risk factors and outcomes. Material and Method: A prospective study in an 18-bed medical-intensive care unit (ICU) was undertaken. A total of 357 consecutive patients admitted to ICU for more than 24 hours were assessed. These patients were screened with the help of Confusion Assessment Method for Intensive Care Unit -CAM-ICU, Richmond Agitation and Sedation Scale, Screening Checklist for delirium and APACHE II. Appropiate statistical analysis was done to evaluate the risk factors influencing mortality in delirium. Results: Delirium occurred in 54.6% of 194 patients. Risk of delirium was independently associated with a history of hypertension, diabetes but not with severity of illness APACHE II score. Delirium was linked to longer ICU stay 13.08 ± 9.6 ver 7.07 ± 4.98 days, higher ICU mortality (35.8% % vs. 17.0%). Conclusion: Our study concluded that delirium poses a great risk factor in the outcome of the patient and carries high mortality, so a timely intervention helps in addressing these issues.

Keywords: delirium, risk factors, outcome, intervention

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Authors: Shi-Yu Xu

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The top three risk factors that have contributed to building collapses during past earthquake events in Taiwan are: "irregular floor plans or elevations," "insufficient columns in single-bay buildings," and the "weak-story problem." Fortunately, these unsound structural characteristics can be directly identified from the floor plans. However, due to the vast number of old buildings, conducting manual inspections to identify these compromised structural features in all existing structures would be time-consuming and prone to human errors. This study aims to develop an algorithm that utilizes artificial intelligence techniques to automatically pinpoint the structural components within a building's floor plans. The obtained spatial information will be utilized to construct a digital structural model of the building. This information, particularly regarding the distribution of columns in the floor plan, can then be used to conduct preliminary seismic assessments of the building. The study employs various image processing and pattern recognition techniques to enhance detection efficiency and accuracy. The study enables a large-scale evaluation of structural vulnerability for numerous old buildings, providing ample time to arrange for structural retrofitting in those buildings that are at risk of significant damage or collapse during earthquakes.

Keywords: structural vulnerability detection, object recognition, seismic capacity assessment, old buildings, artificial intelligence

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Authors: Saida Dorbani, M'hammed Badaoui, Djilali Benouar

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This paper deals with the effect of the building design and epicentral distance on the storey lateral displacement, for several reinforced concrete buildings (6, 9 and 12 stories), with three floor plans: symmetric, mono symmetric, and unsymmetrical. These structures are subjected to seismic accelerations from the Boumerdes earthquake (Algeria, May 21st, Mw=6.5). The objective of this study is to highlight the impact of the fundamental period and epicentral distance on storey displacements for a given earthquake. The seismic lateral displacement is carried out in both longitudinal and transverse direction by the response spectrum method.

Keywords: natural period, epicenter distance, reinforced concrete buildings, storey displacement

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Authors: Arpit Patil, Atharav Bhagwat, Rajas Bhope, Pramod Bide

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This research integrates IoT and ML to predict heart failure risks, utilizing the Framingham dataset. IoT devices gather real-time physiological data, focusing on heart rate dynamics, while ML, specifically Random Forest, predicts heart failure. Rigorous feature selection enhances accuracy, achieving over 90% prediction rate. This amalgamation marks a transformative step in proactive healthcare, highlighting early detection's critical role in cardiovascular risk mitigation. Challenges persist, necessitating continual refinement for improved predictive capabilities.

Keywords: cardiovascular diseases, internet of things, machine learning, cardiac risk assessment, heart failure prediction, early detection, cardio data analysis

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Authors: Abdel-Monem Sayed Mohamed

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Lake Aswan is one of the largest man-made reservoirs in the world. The reservoir began to fill in 1964 and the level rose gradually, with annual irrigation cycles, until it reached a maximum water level of 181.5 m in November 1999, with a capacity of 160 km3. The filling of such large reservoir changes the stress system either through increasing vertical compressional stress by loading and/or increased pore pressure through the decrease of the effective normal stress. The resulted effect on fault zones changes stability depending strongly on the orientation of pre-existing stress and geometry of the reservoir/fault system. The main earthquake occurred on November 14, 1981, with magnitude 5.5. This event occurred after 17 years of the reservoir began to fill, along the active part of the Kalabsha fault and located not far from the High Dam. Numerous of small earthquakes follow this earthquake and continue till now. For this reason, 13 seismograph stations (radio-telemetry network short-period seismometers) were installed around the northern part of Lake Aswan. The main purpose of the network is to monitor the earthquake activity continuously within Aswan region. The data described here are obtained from the continuous record of earthquake activity and lake-water level variation through the period from 1982 to 2015. The seismicity is concentrated in the Kalabsha area, where there is an intersection of the easterly trending Kalabsha fault with the northerly trending faults. The earthquake foci are distributed in two seismic zones, shallow and deep in the crust. Shallow events have focal depths of less than 12 km while deep events extend from 12 to 28 km. Correlation between the seismicity and the water level variation in the lake provides great suggestion to distinguish the micro-earthquakes, particularly, those in shallow seismic zone in the reservoir–triggered seismicity category. The water loading is one factor from several factors, as an activating medium in triggering earthquakes. The common factors for all cases of induced seismicity seem to be the presence of specific geological conditions, the tectonic setting and water loading. The role of the water loading is as a supplementary source of earthquake events. So, the earthquake activity in the area originated tectonically (ML ≥ 4) and the water factor works as an activating medium in triggering small earthquakes (ML ≤ 3). Study of the inducing seismicity from the water level variation in Aswan Lake is of great importance and play great roles necessity for the safety of the High Dam body and its economic resources.

Keywords: Aswan lake, Aswan seismic network, seismicity, water level variation

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Authors: Christian Perrin, Nicholas Blagden, Louise Allen, Sarah Impey

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Social workers in the UK and professionals globally are faced with a particular challenge when dealing with allegations of child sexual abuse (CSA) in the community. In the absence of a conviction or incontestable evidence, staff can often find themselves unable to take decisive action to remove a child from harm, even though there may be a credible threat to their welfare. Conversely, practitioners may over-calculate risk through fear of being accountable for harm. This is, in part, due to the absence of a structured and evidence-based risk assessment tool which can predict the likelihood of a person committing child sexual abuse. Such assessments are often conducted by forensic professionals who utilise offence-specific data and personal history information to calculate risk. In situations where only allegations underpin a case, this mode of assessment is not viable. There are further ethical issues surrounding the assessment of risk in this area which require expert consideration and sensitive planning. This paper explores this entangled problem extant in the wider call to prevent sexual and child sexual abuse in the community. To this end, 32 qualitative interviews were undertaken with social workers dealing with CSA cases. Results were analysed using thematic analysis and operationalised to formulate a risk and protection protocol for use in case management. This paper reports on the early findings associated with the initial indications of protocol reliability. Implications for further research and practice are discussed.

Keywords: sexual offending, child sexual offence, offender rehabilitation, risk assessment, offence prevention

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Authors: Archil Motsonelidze, Vitaly Dvalishvili

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Existing roller compacted concrete (RCC) dams indicate that the layer-by-layer construction method gives considerable economies as compared with the conventional methods. RCC dams have also gained acceptance in the regions of high seismic activity. Earthquake resistance analysis of RCC gravity dams based on nonlinear finite element technique is presented. An elastic-plastic approach is used to describe the material of a dam while it is under static conditions (period of construction). Seismic force, as an acceleration equivalent to that produced by a real earthquake, is supposed to act when the dam is completed. The materials of the dam and foundation may be nonhomogeneous and anisotropic. The “dam-foundation” system is idealized as a plain strain problem.

Keywords: finite element method, layer-by-layer construction, RCC dams, strength analysis

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Authors: Redie Kidane Ghebrehawariat, Betiel Habte Hadgu, Filmon Berhane Kahsay, Rim Berhane Fisehaye, Samuel Haile Kahsay, Saron Yemane Yosief, Selemawit Mosazghi Gilazghi

Abstract:

A cross-sectional study was conducted from 22 February to 9 April 2022 on small, medium, and large holder dairy farms to determine the bovine mastitis prevalence and associated risk factors in the Anseba region, Eritrea. A total of 34 dairy farms and 193 dairy cows were randomly selected. Dairy cows were physically examined for any change on the udder and milk; a California mastitis test was performed to check sub-clinical mastitis; a closed-ended semi-structured questionnaire composed of 28 variables/risk factors (21 management risk factors and 7 animal-level risk factors) was used to determine the risk factors responsible for clinical and sub-clinical mastitis in the dairy cows. The overall cow-level prevalence of mastitis was 147 (76.2%). The animal level prevalence rate of clinical and sub-clinical mastitis was found to be 22 (11.4%) and 125 (64.8%), respectively, while herd level prevalence both for clinical and subclinical mastitis was found to be 14 (41.2%) and 26 (76.5%) respectively. Based on the already set P-value, which is <0.05, a number of risk factors were found to have a significant relationship with the occurrence of clinical and sub-clinical mastitis. Generally, animal risk factors such as animal age, parity, injury on the udder or teat, and previous history of mastitis presence of injury on the udder and lactation stage were risk factors with a significant relationship with the occurrence of clinical and sub-clinical mastitis. On the other hand, management risk factors with a significant relationship to the occurrence of clinical and sub-clinical mastitis were herd size, failure to milk mastitic cow, at last, educational level, floor type, failure to use a towel, using one towel for more than one cow and failure to practice mastitis test. From a total of 772 quarters, 280 (36.3%) were found positive for sub-clinical mastitis using the California mastitis test; of these, 70 (9%) were weakly positive, 90 (11.7%) were distinct positive, and 120 (15.5%) were strongly positive. Furthermore, 13 (1.7%) quarters were blocked. Quarter level prevalence was right front 80 (41.5%), left front 64 (33.3%), right hind 69 (35.8%) and left hind 67 (34.7%). The study has shown that mastitis is a major problem for dairy farms and the findings suggested that mastitis is one of the limiting factors in increasing milk production. Subclinical mastitis was found to be a devastating problem, and it occurred in all three breeds of lactating dairy cattle. Therefore, farmers should work hard to avoid the above-mentioned risk factors to minimize the infection of their dairy cattle by mastitis and thereby increase their profit. On the other hand, the Ministry of Agriculture, through the extension unit, should work in close contact with the farmers to increase awareness of the economic importance of the disease and associated risk factors.

Keywords: mastitis, prevalence, dairy cattle, Anseba, Eritrea

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Authors: Yangze Lan, Ruihua Xv, Feng Zhou, Yijia Shan, Longhao Zhang, Qinghui Xv

Abstract:

Receiving and dispatching trains is an important part of railroad organization, and the risky evaluation of operating personnel is still reflected by scores, lacking further excavation of wrong answers and operating accidents. With natural language processing (NLP) technology, this study extracts the keywords and key phrases of 40 relevant risk events about receiving and dispatching trains and reclassifies the risk events into 8 categories, such as train approach and signal risks, dispatching command risks, and so on. Based on the historical risk data of personnel, the K-Means clustering method is used to classify the risk level of personnel. The result indicates that the high-risk operating personnel need to strengthen the training of train receiving and dispatching operations towards essential trains and abnormal situations.

Keywords: receiving and dispatching trains, natural language processing, risk evaluation, K-means clustering

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Authors: Mohammadreza Ashouria, Majid Motamedzadeb

Abstract:

Rapid Entire Body Assessment (REBA) and Quick Exposure Check (QEC) are two general methods to assess the risk factors of work-related musculoskeletal disorders (WMSDs). This study aimed to compare ergonomic risk assessment outputs from QEC and REBA in terms of agreement in distribution of postural loading scores based on analysis of working postures. This cross-sectional study was conducted in an engine oil company in which 40 jobs were studied. A trained occupational health practitioner observed all jobs. Job information was collected to ensure the completion of ergonomic risk assessment tools, including QEC, and REBA. The result revealed that there was a significant correlation between final scores (r=0.731) and the action levels (r =0.893) of two applied methods. Comparison between the action levels and final scores of two methods showed that there was no significant difference among working departments. Most of the studied postures acquired low and moderate risk level in QEC assessment (low risk=20%, moderate risk=50% and High risk=30%) and in REBA assessment (low risk=15%, moderate risk=60% and high risk=25%).There is a significant correlation between two methods. They have a strong correlation in identifying risky jobs and determining the potential risk for incidence of WMSDs. Therefore, there is a possibility for researchers to apply interchangeably both methods, for postural risk assessment in appropriate working environments.

Keywords: observational method, QEC, REBA, musculoskeletal disorders

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Authors: Mohammed E. Mansour, Tamador M. A. Elhassan, Nahid A. Ibrahim, Awatif A. Ahmed, Manal A. Abdalla

Abstract:

Rift valley fever (RVF) is mosquito-borne disease. RVF is transboundary zoonotic disease. It has socioeconomic and public health importance. This paper describes qualitative risk of the RVF vaccine production. RVF is endemic in the Sudan. It has been reported in Sudan due to abundance of Ades Eqytie. Thus, there is huge effort to control it. Vaccination practices had significant role to control and manage RVF. The risk assessment explains the likelihood of a risk as likely. Thus, insecticides and repellents synergize the effort of the vaccination.

Keywords: qualitative analysis, risk assessment, rift valley fever vaccine, quality control

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Authors: M. Sulieman, H. Arabiyat, H. Ali, K. Potiszil, I. Abbas, R. English, P. King, I. Brown, P. Drew

Abstract:

Introduction: The incidence of breast ductal Carcinoma in Situ (DCIS) has been increasing; it currently represents up 20-25% of all breast carcinomas. Some aspects of DCIS management are still controversial, mainly due to the heterogeneity of its clinical presentation and of its biological and pathological characteristics. In DCIS, histological diagnosis obtained preoperatively, carries the risk of sampling error if the presence of invasive cancer is subsequently diagnosed. The mammographic extent over than 4–5 cm and the presence of architectural distortion, focal asymmetric density or mass on mammography are proven important risk factors of preoperative histological under staging. Intracystic papillary cancer (IPC) is a rare form of breast carcinoma. Despite being previously compared to DCIS it has been shown to present histologically with invasion of the basement membrane and even metastasis. SLNB – Carries the risk of associated comorbidity that should be considered when planning surgery for DCIS and IPC. Objectives: The aim of this Audit was to better define a ‘high risk’ group of patients with pre-op diagnosis of non-invasive cancer undergoing breast conserving surgery, who would benefit from sentinel node biopsy. Method: Retrospective data collection of all patients with ductal carcinoma in situ over 5 years. 636 patients identified, and after exclusion criteria applied: 394 patients were included. High risk defined as: Extensive micro-calcification >40mm OR any mass forming DCIS. IPC: Winpath search from for the term ‘papillary carcinoma’ in any breast specimen for 5 years duration;.29 patients were included in this group. Results: DCIS: 188 deemed high risk due to >40mm calcification or a mass forming (radiological or palpable) 61% of those had a mastectomy and 32% BCS. Overall, in that high-risk group - the number with invasive disease was 38%. Of those high-risk DCIS pts 85% had a SLN - 80% at the time of surgery and 5% at a second operation. For the BCS patients - 42% had SLN at time of surgery and 13% (8 patients) at a second operation. 15 (7.9%) pts in the high-risk group had a positive SLNB, 11 having a mastectomy and 4 having BCS. IPC: The provisional diagnosis of encysted papillary carcinoma is upgraded to an invasive carcinoma on final histology in around a third of cases. This has may have implications when deciding whether to offer sentinel node removal at the time of therapeutic surgery. Conclusions: We have defined a ‘high risk’ group of pts with pre-op diagnosis of non-invasive cancer undergoing BCS, who would benefit from SLNB at the time of the surgery. In patients with high-risk features; the risk of invasive disease is up to 40% but the risk of nodal involvement is approximately 8%. The risk of morbidity from SLN is up to about 5% especially the risk of lymphedema.

Keywords: breast ductal carcinoma in Situ (DCIS), intracystic papillary carcinoma (IPC), sentinel node biopsy (SLNB), high-risk, non-invasive, cancer disease

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Authors: Samir Srairi

Abstract:

This paper investigates the impact of the internal corporate governance on bank performance by constructing a corporate governance index (CGI) for 27 Islamic banks operating in five Arab Gulf countries. Using content analysis on the banks’ annual reports for 3 years (2011-2013), the index construction uses information on six important corporate governance mechanisms, namely board structure, risk management, transparency and disclosure, audit committee, Sharia supervisory board and investment account holders. The results demonstrate that Islamic banks adhere to 54% of the attributes addressed in the CGI. The most frequently reported and disclosed elements are Sharia supervisory board followed by board structure and risk management. The findings related to countries revealed that only two countries, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, possess a higher level of CGI. Our regression results provide evidence that Islamic banks with higher levels of corporate governance report high operating performance measured by return on assets and net interest margin. Finally, as of the effect of internal and external factors, we identified four variables that were associated with bank performance, namely size, equity, risk and concentration.

Keywords: governance mechanisms, corporate governance index, bank performance, Islamic banks, GCC countries

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Authors: Kalpana Adhikari, Mandip Subedi, Keshab Sharma, Indra P. Acharya

Abstract:

The Gorkha Nepal earthquake of moment magnitude (Mw) 7.8 struck the central region of Nepal on April 25, 2015 with the epicenter about 77 km northwest of Kathmandu Valley . Peak ground acceleration observed during the earthquake was 0.18g. This motion induced several geotechnical effects such as landslides, foundation failures liquefaction, lateral spreading and settlement, and local amplification. An aftershock of moment magnitude (Mw) 7.3 hit northeast of Kathmandu on May 12 after 17 days of main shock caused additional damages. Kathmandu is the largest city in Nepal, have a population over four million. As the Kathmandu Valley deposits are composed mainly of sand, silt and clay layers with a shallow ground water table, liquefaction is highly anticipated. Extensive liquefaction was also observed in Kathmandu Valley during the 1934 Nepal-Bihar earthquake. Field investigations were carried out in Kathmandu Valley immediately after Mw 7.8, April 25 main shock and Mw 7.3, May 12 aftershock. Geotechnical investigation of both liquefied and non-liquefied sites were conducted after the earthquake. This paper presents observations of liquefaction and liquefaction induced damage, and the liquefaction potential assessment based on Standard Penetration Tests (SPT) for liquefied and non-liquefied sites. SPT based semi-empirical approach has been used for evaluating liquefaction potential of the soil and Liquefaction Potential Index (LPI) has been used to determine liquefaction probability. Recorded ground motions from the event are presented. Geological aspect of Kathmandu Valley and local site effect on the occurrence of liquefaction is described briefly. Observed liquefaction case studies are described briefly. Typically, these are sand boils formed by freshly ejected sand forced out of over-pressurized sub-strata. At most site, sand was ejected to agricultural fields forming deposits that varied from millimetres to a few centimeters thick. Liquefaction-induced damage to structures in these areas was not significant except buildings on some places tilted slightly. Boiled soils at liquefied sites were collected and the particle size distributions of ejected soils were analyzed. SPT blow counts and the soil profiles at ten liquefied and non-liquefied sites were obtained. The factors of safety against liquefaction with depth and liquefaction potential index of the ten sites were estimated and compared with observed liquefaction after 2015 Gorkha earthquake. The liquefaction potential indices obtained from the analysis were found to be consistent with the field observation. The field observations along with results from liquefaction assessment were compared with the existing liquefaction hazard map. It was found that the existing hazard maps are unrepresentative and underestimate the liquefaction susceptibility in Kathmandu Valley. The lessons learned from the liquefaction during this earthquake are also summarized in this paper. Some recommendations are also made to the seismic liquefaction mitigation in the Kathmandu Valley.

Keywords: factor of safety, geotechnical investigation, liquefaction, Nepal earthquake

Procedia PDF Downloads 323