Search results for: Syed Zafar Ali Shah

Authors: Ahsan Khan, Nazish Shah, Muhammad Salman

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The present study deals with the toxicological effects of copper, lead and chromium on brain and liver tissues of grass carp (Ctenopharyngodon idella). The average length of experimental fish was 8.5 ± 5.5 cm and weighed 9.5 ± 6.5 g. Grass carp was exposed to lethal concentration (LC₁₅) of copper, lead and chromium for 24, 48, 72 and 96 hours respectively. (LC₁₅) for copper was 1.5, 1.4, 1.2 and 1mgL⁻¹. Similarly, LC₁₅ of lead was 250, 235, 225 and 216mgL⁻¹ while (LC₁₅) for chromium was 25.5, 22.5, 20 and 18mgL⁻¹ respectively. During the time of exposure against various doses of heavy metals the grass carp showed some behavioral changes. In the initial stages of experiment, the rapid movements and gulping of air were observed. Several times the fish tried to jump to scat from the toxic median. In addition, the accumulation of heavy metals in different tissues of grass carp particularly in liver and brain tissues were observed. Lead was highly accumulated in brain tissue after the exposure of fish for 24 and 48 hours, while highly accumulated in liver tissues after the exposure of fish for 72 and 96 hours. Chromium was highly accumulated in the liver tissues after the exposure of fish for 24 hours while its accumulation was found highly in the brain tissues after the exposure of fish for 48, 72 and 96 hours. Similarly, accumulation of copper concentration was found highly in brain tissues after the exposure of 48 and 96 hours while its accumulation was high in liver tissues after the exposure of 24 and 72 hours. Comparatively maximum accumulation of lead was found in brain and liver tissues of grass carp followed by chromium and copper. Furthermore, accumulation of these metals caused many abnormalities like gliosis, destruction of cell, change in cell shape and shrinkage of cells in brain tissue while in liver tissues aggregation in hepatocytes, widen space between cells and also destruction of cell was observed. These experiments and observations can be useful to monitor the aquatic pollution and quality of aquatic environment system.

Keywords: brain, grass carp, liver, lethal concentration, toxicity

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Authors: Mohammad Syed Ali Molla, Mohammed Azim, Mohammad Esharuzzaman

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Centrifugal-casting machine is used in manufacturing special machine components like multi-layer journal bearing used in all internal combustion engine, steam, gas turbine and air craft turboengine where isotropic properties and high precisions are desired. Moreover, this machine can be used in manufacturing thin wall hightech machine components like cylinder liners and piston rings of IC engine and other machine parts like sleeves, and bushes. Heavy-duty machine component like railway wheel can also be prepared by centrifugal casting. A lot of technological developments are required in casting process for production of good casted machine body and machine parts. Usually defects like blowholes, surface roughness, chilled surface etc. are found in sand casted machine parts. But these can be removed by centrifugal casting machine using rotating metallic die. Moreover, die rotation, its temperature control, and good pouring practice can contribute to the quality of casting because of the fact that the soundness of a casting in large part depends upon how the metal enters into the mold or dies and solidifies. Poor pouring practice leads to variety of casting defects such as temperature loss, low quality casting, excessive turbulence, over pouring etc. Besides these, handling of molten metal is very unsecured and dangerous for the workers. In order to get rid of all these problems, the need of an automatic pouring device arises. In this research work, a robot assisted pouring device and a centrifugal casting machine are designed, developed constructed and tested experimentally which are found to work satisfactorily. The robot assisted pouring device is further modified and developed for using it in actual metal casting process. Lot of settings and tests are required to control the system and ultimately it can be used in automation of centrifugal casting machine to produce high-tech machine parts with desired precision.

Keywords: bearing, centrifugal casting, cylinder liners, robot

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Authors: Rashida Rahmat Zohra, Afsheen Aman, Shah Ali Ul Qader

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Commercially important biopolymer, dextran, is enzymatically degraded into lower molecular weight fractions of vast industrial potential. Various organisms are associated with dextranase production, among which fungal, yeast and bacterial origins are used for commercial production. Dextranases are used to remove contaminating dextran in sugar processing industry and also used in oral care products for efficient removal of dental plaque. Among the hydrolytic products of dextran, isomaltooligosaccharides have prebiotic effect in humans and reduces the cariogenic effect of sucrose in oral cavity. Dextran derivatives produced by hydrolysis of high molecular polymer are also conjugated with other chemical and metallic compounds for usage in pharmaceutical, fine chemical industry, cosmetics, and food industry. Owing to the vast application of dextran and dextranases, current study focused on purification and analysis of kinetic parameters of dextranase from a newly isolated strain of Bacillus licheniformis KIBGE-IB25. Dextranase was purified up to 35.75 folds with specific activity of 1405 U/mg and molecular weight of 158 kDa. Analysis of kinetic parameters revealed that dextranase performs optimum cleavage of low molecular weight dextran (5000 Da, 0.5%) at 35ºC in 15 min at pH 4.5 with a Km and Vmax of 0.3738 mg/ml and 182.0 µmol/min, respectively. Thermal stability profiling of dextranase showed that it retained 80% activity up to 6 hours at 30-35ºC and remains 90% active at pH 4.5. In short, the dextranase reported here performs rapid cleavage of substrate at mild operational conditions which makes it an ideal candidate for dextran removal in sugar processing industry and for commercial production of low molecular weight oligosaccharides.

Keywords: Bacillus licheniformis, dextranase, gel permeation chromatograpy, enzyme purification, enzyme kinetics

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Authors: Badli Shah Mohd Yusoff, Khairur Rijal Jamaludin, Rozetta Dollah

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The emerging of reverse logistics and product recovery management is an important concept in reconciling economic and environmental objectives through recapturing values of the end of life product returns. End of life products contains valuable modules, parts, residues and materials that can create value if recovered efficiently. The main objective of this study is to explore and develop a model to recover as much of the economic value as reasonably possible to find the optimality of return acquisition and sorting to meet demand and maximize profits over time. In this study, the benefits that can be obtained for remanufacturer is to develop demand forecasting of used products in the future with uncertainty of returns and quality of products. Formulated based on a generic disassembly tree, the proposed model focused on three reverse logistics activity, namely refurbish, remanufacture and disposal incorporating all plausible means quality levels of the returns. While stricter sorting policy, constitute to the decrease amount of products to be refurbished or remanufactured and increases the level of discarded products. Numerical experiments carried out to investigate the characteristics and behaviour of the proposed model with mathematical programming model using Lingo 16.0 for medium-term planning of return acquisition, disassembly (refurbish or remanufacture) and disposal activities. Moreover, the model seeks an analysis a number of decisions relating to trade off management system to maximize revenue from the collection of use products reverse logistics services through refurbish and remanufacture recovery options. The results showed that full utilization in the sorting process leads the system to obtain less quantity from acquisition with minimal overall cost. Further, sensitivity analysis provides a range of possible scenarios to consider in optimizing the overall cost of refurbished and remanufactured products.

Keywords: core acquisition, end of life, reverse logistics, quality uncertainty

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Authors: Samiyah Tasleem, Muhammad Abdul Haq, Syed Baqir Shyum Naqvi, Muhammad Abid Husnain, Sajjad Haider Naqvi

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The objective of the present study was: a) to investigate the antimicrobial activity of honey samples of different floral sources of Pakistan, b) to recover the phenolic acids in them as a possible contributing factor of antimicrobial activity. Six honey samples from different floral sources, namely: Trachysperm copticum, Acacia species, Helianthus annuus, Carissa opaca, Zizyphus and Magnifera indica were used. The antimicrobial activity was investigated by the disc diffusion method against eight freshly isolated clinical isolates (Staphylococci aureus, Staphylococci epidermidis, Streptococcus faecalis, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, Klebsiella pneumonia, Escherichia coli, Proteus vulgaris and Candida albicans). Antimicrobial activity of honey was compared with five commercial antibiotics, namely: doxycycline (DO-30ug/mL), oxytetracycline (OT-30ug/mL), clarithromycin (CLR–15ug/mL), moxifloxacin (MXF-5ug/mL) and nystatin (NT – 100 UT). The fractions responsible for antimicrobial activity were extracted using ethyl acetate. Solid phase extraction (SPE) was used to recover the phenolic acids of honey samples. Identification was carried out via High-Performance Liquid Chromatography (HPLC). The results indicated that antimicrobial activity was present in all honey samples and found comparable to the antibiotics used in the study. In the microbiological assay, the ethyl acetate honey extract was found to exhibit a very promising antimicrobial activity against all the microorganisms tested, indicating the existence of phenolic compounds. Six phenolic acids, namely: gallic, caffeic, ferulic, vanillic, benzoic and cinnamic acids were identified besides some unknown substance by HPLC. In conclusion, Pakistani honey samples showed a broad spectrum antibacterial and promising antifungal activity. Identification of six different phenolic acids showed that Pakistani honey samples are rich sources of phenolic compounds that could be the contributing factor of antimicrobial activity.

Keywords: Pakistani honey, antimicrobial activity, Phenolic acids eg.gallic, caffeic, ferulic, vanillic, benzoic and cinnamic acids

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Authors: Kinjal H. Shah, Piyush M. Patel

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Diabetes mellitus is considered to be a serious endocrine syndrome. Synthetic hypoglycemic agents can produce serious side effects including hematological effects, coma, and disturbances of the liver and kidney. In addition, they are not suitable for use during pregnancy. In recent years, there have been relatively few reports of short-term side effects or toxicity due to sulphonylureas. Published figures and frequency of side effects in large series of patient range from about 1 to 5%, with symptoms severe enough to lead to the withdrawal of the drug in less than 1 to 2%. Adverse effects, in general, have been of the following type: allergic skin reactions, gastrointestinal disturbances, blood dyscrasias, hepatic dysfunction, and hypoglycemia. The associated disadvantages with insulin and oral hypoglycemic agents have led to stimulation in the research for locating natural resources showing antidiabetic activity and to explore the possibilities of using traditional medicines with proper chemical and pharmacological profiles. Literature survey reveals that the inhabitants of Abbottabad district of Pakistan use the dried leaf powder along with table salt and water orally for treating diabetes, skin allergy, wounds and as a blood purifier, where they pronounced the plant locally as ‘Nem.' The detailed phytochemical investigation of the Cedrela toona Roxb. leaves for antidiabetic activity has not been documented. Hence, there is a need for phytochemical investigation of the leaves for antidiabetic activity. The collection of fresh leaves and authentification followed by successive extraction, phytochemical screening, and testing of antidiabetic activity. The blood glucose level was reduced maximum in ethanol extract at 5th and 7th h after treatment. Blood glucose was depressed by 8.2% and 10.06% in alloxan – induced diabetic rats after treatment which was comparable to the standard drug, Glibenclamide. This may be due to the activation of the existing pancreatic cells in diabetic rats by the ethanolic extract.

Keywords: antidiabetic, Cedrela toona Roxb., phytochemical screening, blood glucose

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Authors: Sidra Pervez, Afsheen Aman, Shah Ali Ul Qader

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The importance of attaining an optimum performance of an enzyme is often a question of devising an effective method for its immobilization. Cross-linked enzyme aggregate (CLEAs) is a new approach for immobilization of enzymes using carrier free strategy. This method is exquisitely simple (involving precipitation of the enzyme from aqueous buffer followed by cross-linking of the resulting physical aggregates of enzyme molecules) and amenable to rapid optimization. Among many industrial enzymes, amyloglucosidase is an important amylolytic enzyme that hydrolyzes alpha (1→4) and alpha (1→6) glycosidic bonds in starch molecule and produce glucose as a sole end product. Glucose liberated by amyloglucosidase can be used for the production of ethanol and glucose syrups. Besides this amyloglucosidase can be widely used in various food and pharmaceuticals industries. For production of amyloglucosidase on commercial scale, filamentous fungi of genera Aspergillus are mostly used because they secrete large amount of enzymes extracellularly. The current investigation was based on isolation and identification of filamentous fungi from genus Aspergillus for the production of amyloglucosidase in submerged fermentation and optimization of cultivation parameters for starch saccharification. Natural isolates were identified as Aspergillus niger KIBGE-IB36, Aspergillus fumigatus KIBGE-IB33, Aspergillus flavus KIBGE-IB34 and Aspergillus terreus KIBGE-IB35 on taxonomical basis and 18S rDNA analysis and their sequence were submitted to GenBank. Among them, Aspergillus fumigatus KIBGE-IB33 was selected on the basis of maximum enzyme production. After optimization of fermentation conditions enzyme was immobilized on CLEA. Different parameters were optimized for maximum immobilization of amyloglucosidase. Data of enzyme stability (thermal and Storage) and reusability suggested the applicability of immobilized amyloglucosidase for continuous saccharification of starch in industrial processes.

Keywords: aspergillus, immobilization, industrial processes, starch saccharification

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Authors: Ayesha Agha Shah

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The purpose of a mosque or a place of worship is to build a spiritual relation with God. If the sense of spirituality is not achieved, then sacred architecture appears to be lacking depth. Form and space play a significant role to enhance the architectural quality to impart a divine feel to a place. To achieve this divine feeling, form and space, and unity of opposites, either abstract or symbolic can be employed. It is challenging to imbue the emptiness of a space with qualitative experience. Mosque architecture mostly entails traditional forms and design typology. This approach for Muslim worship produces distinct landmarks in the urban neighborhoods of Muslim societies, while creating a great sense of spirituality. The universal symbolic characters in the mosque architecture had prototype geometrical forms for a long time in history. However, modern mosques have deviated from this approach to employ different built elements and symbolism, which are often hard to be identified as related to mosques or even as Islamic. This research aims to explore the sense of spirituality in modern mosques and questions whether the modification of geometrical features produce spirituality in the same manner. The research also seeks to investigate the role of ‘geometry’ in the modern mosque architecture. The research employs the analytical study of some modern mosque examples in the Kingdom of Bahrain, reflecting on the geometry and symbolism adopted in the new mosque architecture design. It buttresses the analysis by the engagement of people’s perceptions derived using a survey of opinions. The research expects to see the significance of geometrical architectural elements in the mosque designs. It will find answers to the questions such as; what is the role of the form of the mosque, interior spaces and the effect of the modified symbolic features in the modern mosque design? How can the symbolic geometry, forms and spaces of a mosque invite a believer to leave the worldly environment behind and move towards spirituality?

Keywords: geometry, mosque architecture, spirituality, symbolism

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Authors: Syed Hammad Ali, Rijan Bhakta Kayastha, Danial Hashmi, Richard Armstrong, Ahuti Shrestha, Iram Bano, Javed Hassan

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This paper presents the results of a semi-distributed modified positive degree-day model (MPDDM) for estimating snow and ice melt contributions to discharge from the glacierized Hunza River basin, Pakistan. The model uses daily temperature data, daily precipitation data, and positive degree day factors for snow and ice melt. The model is calibrated for the period 1995-2001 and validated for 2002-2013, and demonstrates close agreements between observed and simulated discharge with Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiencies of 0.90 and 0.88, respectively. Furthermore, the Weather Research and Forecasting model projected temperature, and precipitation data from 2016-2050 are used for representative concentration pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, and bias correction was done using a statistical approach for future discharge estimation. No drastic changes in future discharge are predicted for the emissions scenarios. The aggregate snow-ice melt contribution is 39% of total discharge in the period 1993-2013. Snow-ice melt contribution ranges from 35% to 63% during the high flow period (May to October), which constitutes 89% of annual discharge; in the low flow period (November to April) it ranges from 0.02% to 17%, which constitutes 11 % of the annual discharge. The snow-ice melt contribution to total discharge will increase gradually in the future and reach up to 45% in 2041-2050. From a sensitivity analysis, it is found that the combination of a 2°C temperature rise and 20% increase in precipitation shows a 10% increase in discharge. The study allows us to evaluate the impact of climate change in such basins and is also useful for the future prediction of discharge to define hydropower potential, inform other water resource management in the area, to understand future changes in snow-ice melt contribution to discharge, and offer a possible evaluation of future water quantity and availability.

Keywords: climate variability, future discharge projection, positive degree day, regional climate model, water resource management

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Authors: Nikhil A. Gavhane, Sachin Shah, Ishant S. Mahajan, Pawan D. Bahekar

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Introduction: Millions of people are affected with dengue fever every year, which drives up healthcare expenses in many low-income countries. Organ failure and other serious symptoms may result. Another worldwide public health problem is sickle cell anaemia, which is most prevalent in Africa, the Caribbean, and Europe. Dengue epidemics have reportedly occurred in locations with a high frequency of sickle cell disease, compounding the health problems in these areas. Aims and Objectives: This study examines dengue infection in sickle cell disease-afflicted pre-schoolers. Method:This Retrospective cohort study examined paediatric patients. Young people with sickle cell disease (SCD), dengue infection, and a control group without SCD or dengue were studied. Data on demographics, SCD consequences, medical treatments, and laboratory findings were gathered to analyse the influence of SCD on dengue severity and clinical outcomes, classified as severe or non-severe by the 2009 WHO classification. Using fever or admission symptoms, the research estimated acute illness duration. Result: Table 1 compares haemoglobin genotype-based dengue episode features in SS, SC, and controls. Table 2 shows that severe dengue cases are older, have longer admission delays, and have particular symptoms. Table 3's multivariate analysis indicates SS genotype's high connection with severe dengue, multiorgan failure, and acute pulmonary problems. Table 4 relates severe dengue to greater white blood cell counts, anaemia, liver enzymes, and reduced lactate dehydrogenase. Conclusion: This study is valuable but confined to hospitalised dengue patients with sickle cell illness. Small cohorts limit comparisons. Further study is needed since findings contradict predictions.

Keywords: dengue, chills, headache, severe myalgia, vomiting, nausea, prostration

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Authors: Syed Ahmed Salman

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Ethicality is essential in our daily activities, including personal and commercial activities. This is evidenced by referring to the historical development of the corporate governance and ethical guidelines. The first corporate governance guideline, i.e. Cadbury Report from U.K. focuses the responsibility of board members towards the shareholders only. Gradually, realising the need to take care of the society and community, stakeholders are now concerns of business entities. Consequently, later codes of corporate governance started extending the responsibility to the other stakeholders in addition to the shareholders. One prevailing corporate governance theory, i.e. stakeholder theory, has been widely used in the research to explore the effects of business entities on society. In addition, the Global Reporting Initiative (GRI) is the leading organisation which promotes social care from businesses for sustainable development. Conventionally, history shows that ethics is key to the long term success of businesses. Many organisations, societies, and regulators give full attention and consideration to ethics. Several countries have introduced ethical codes of conduct to direct trade activities. Similarly, Islam and other religions prohibit the practice of interest, uncertainty, and gambling because of its unethical nature. These prohibited practices are not at all good for the society, business, and any organisation especially as it is detrimental to the well-being of society. In order to avoid unethicality in the finance industry, Shari’ah scholars come out with the idea of Islamic finance which is free from the prohibited elements from the Islamic perspective. It can also be termed ethical finance. This paper highlights how Takaful as one of the Islamic finance products offers fair and just products to the contracting parties and the society. Takaful is framed based on ethical guidelines which are extracted from Shari’ah principles and divine sources such as the Quran and Sunnah. Takaful products have been widely offered all over the world, including in both Muslim and non-Muslim countries. It seems that it is gaining acceptance regardless of religion. This is evidence that Takaful is being accepted as an ethical financial product.

Keywords: ethics, insurance, Islamic finance, religion and takaful

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Authors: Neel K. Shah

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Passive flow control on aerofoils has largely been achieved through the use of protrusions such as vane-type vortex generators. Consequently, innovative flow-control concepts should be explored in an effort to improve current component performance. Therefore, experimental research has been performed at The University of Manchester to evaluate the flow-control effectiveness of a vortex generator made in the form of a surface indentation. The surface indentation has a trapezoidal planform. A spanwise array of indentations has been applied in a convergent orientation around the maximum-thickness location of the upper surface of a NACA-0015 aerofoil. The aerofoil has been tested in a two-dimensional set-up in a low-speed wind tunnel at an angle of attack (AoA) of 3° and a chord-based Reynolds number (Re) of ~2.7 x 105. The baseline model has been found to suffer from a laminar separation bubble at low AoA. The application of the indentations at 3° AoA has considerably shortened the separation bubble. The indentations achieve this by shedding up-flow pairs of streamwise vortices. Despite the considerable reduction in bubble length, the increase in leading-edge suction due to the shorter bubble is limited by the removal of surface curvature and blockage (increase in surface pressure) caused locally by the convergent indentations. Furthermore, the up-flow region of the vortices, which locally weakens the pressure recovery around the trailing edge of the aerofoil by thickening the boundary layer, also contributes to this limitation. Due to the conflicting effects of the indentations, the changes in the pressure-lift and pressure-drag coefficients, i.e., cl,p and cd,p, are small. Nevertheless, the indentations have improved cl,p and cd,p beyond the uncertainty range, i.e., by ~1.30% and ~0.30%, respectively, at 3° AoA. The wake measurements show that turbulence intensity and Reynolds stresses have considerably increased in the indented case, thus implying that the indentations increase the viscous drag on the model. In summary, the convergent indentations are able to reduce the size of the laminar separation bubble, but conversely, they are not highly effective in reducing cd,p at the tested Reynolds number.

Keywords: aerofoil flow control, laminar separation bubbles, low Reynolds-number flows, surface indentations

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Authors: B. McGovern, J. F. Luck, A. Gade, I. V. Lake, D. O’Connell, H. C. Cutcliffe, K. P. Shah, E. E. Ginalis, C. M. Lambert, N. Christian, J. R. Kait, A. W. Yu, C. P. Eckersley, C. R. Bass

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Mild traumatic brain injury (mTBI) in the form of post-concussive injuries and attention deficit / hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) share similar cognitive impairments, including impaired working memory and executive function. The memory-guided oculomotor task separates working memory and inhibitory components to provide further information on the nature of these deficits in each pathology. Eleven subjects with ADHD, fifteen control subjects, and ten subjects with recent concussive injury were matched on age, gender, and education (all high school-age males). Eye movements were recorded during memory-guided oculomotor tasks with varying delays using EyeLink 1000 (SR Research). The percentage of premature saccades and the latency of correct response are the analyzed measures for response inhibition and working memory, respectively. No significant differences were found in latencies between controls subjects and subjects with ADHD or post-concussive injuries, in accordance with previous studies. Subjects with ADHD and post-concussive injuries both demonstrated a trend of increased percentages of premature saccades compared to control subjects in the same oculomotor task. This trend reached statistical significance between the post-concussive and control groups (p < 0.05). These findings support the primary nature of the executive function deficits in response inhibition in ADHD and mTBI. The interpretation of results is limited by the small sample size and the exploratory nature of the study. Further investigation into oculomotor performance differences in mTBI and ADHD may help in differentiating these pathologies in consequent diagnoses and provide insight into the interaction of these deficits in mTBI.

Keywords: attention deficit / hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), concussion, diagnosis, oculomotor, pediatrics

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Authors: Ali Raza, Rizwan Latif, Syed Adnan Qasim, Imran Shafi

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Diesel engines are most efficient and reliable in terms of efficiency, reliability, and adaptability. Most of the research and development up till now have been directed towards High Speed Diesel Engine, for Commercial use. In these engines, objective is to optimize maximum acceleration by reducing exhaust emission to meet international standards. In high torque low speed engines, the requirement is altogether different. These types of engines are mostly used in Maritime Industry, Agriculture Industry, Static Engines Compressors Engines, etc. On the contrary, high torque low speed engines are neglected quite often and are eminent for low efficiency and high soot emissions. One of the most effective ways to overcome these issues is by efficient combustion in an engine cylinder. Fuel spray dynamics play a vital role in defining mixture formation, fuel consumption, combustion efficiency and soot emissions. Therefore, a comprehensive understanding of the fuel spray characteristics and atomization process in high torque low speed diesel engine is of great importance. Evaporation in the combustion chamber has a rigorous effect on the efficiency of the engine. In this paper, multiphase evaporation of fuel is modeled for high torque low speed engine using the CFD (computational fluid dynamics) codes. Two distinct phases of evaporation are modeled using modeling soft wares. The basic model equations are derived from the energy conservation equation and Naiver-Stokes equation. O’Rourke model is used to model the evaporation phases. The results obtained showed a generous effect on the efficiency of the engine. Evaporation rate of fuel droplet is increased with the increase in vapor pressure. An appreciable reduction in size of droplet is achieved by adding the convective heat effects in the combustion chamber. By and large, an overall increase in efficiency is observed by modeling distinct evaporation phases. This increase in efficiency is due to the fact that droplet size is reduced and vapor pressure is increased in the engine cylinder.

Keywords: diesel fuel, CFD, evaporation, multiphase

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Authors: Syed Afrozuddin Ahmed, Junaid Saghir Siddiqi, Sabah Quaiser

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Various studies have reported that global warming causes unstable climate and many serious impact to physical environment and public health. The increasing incidence of dengue incidence is now a priority health issue and become a health burden of Pakistan. In this study it has been investigated that spatial pattern of environment causes the emergence or increasing rate of dengue fever incidence that effects the population and its health. The climatic or environmental structure data and the Dengue Fever (DF) data was processed by coding, editing, tabulating, recoding, restructuring in terms of re-tabulating was carried out, and finally applying different statistical methods, techniques, and procedures for the evaluation. Five climatic variables which we have studied are precipitation (P), Maximum temperature (Mx), Minimum temperature (Mn), Humidity (H) and Wind speed (W) collected from 1980-2012. The dengue cases in Karachi from 2010 to 2012 are reported on weekly basis. Principal component analysis is applied to explore the climatic variables and/or the climatic (structure) which may influence in the increase or decrease in the number of dengue fever cases in Karachi. PC1 for all the period is General atmospheric condition. PC2 for dengue period is contrast between precipitation and wind speed. PC3 is the weighted difference between maximum temperature and wind speed. PC4 for dengue period contrast between maximum and wind speed. Negative binomial and Poisson regression model are used to correlate the dengue fever incidence to climatic variable and principal component score. Relative humidity is estimated to positively influence on the chances of dengue occurrence by 1.71% times. Maximum temperature positively influence on the chances dengue occurrence by 19.48% times. Minimum temperature affects positively on the chances of dengue occurrence by 11.51% times. Wind speed is effecting negatively on the weekly occurrence of dengue fever by 7.41% times.

Keywords: principal component analysis, dengue fever, negative binomial regression model, poisson regression model

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Authors: Munaza Mubeen

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The colonial Urdu literature has played a significant role in uplifting the overall status of the Indians. Taking example of the Bhopal State, the contribution of the Royal ladies holds no match in the contemporary age. Similarly, the efforts of the Begamat-e-Bhopal in the field of education had been acknowledged across the Sub-continent. It had been noticed that with the downfall of the Mughal Empire at the hands of the British Raj, the local culture in the Indian sub-continent in general and in Bhopal State in proper got deteriorated. This led to uncertainty, chaos and an anti-British sentiment which created hatred against them in the entire sub-continent. Likely, in Bhopal State, the role of women in field of education also vanished. However, this change was felt by the ladies in the Royal Household where they struggled for restoration of the status quo with their personal efforts. The prominent contributors from the Royal household included Qudseya Begum, Nawab Sikander Begum, Nawab Shah Jahan Begum and Nawab Sultan Johan-they are known as Begamat-i-Bhopal. They established schools, colleges and universities to impart formal and non-formal education respectively. Their systematic approach and continued efforts constituted a dynamic aspect of women’ empowerment. Focused on the female education, however, one of the by-products of their efforts was an introduction of socio-cultural and politico-religious awareness among the middle class womenfolk. Unfortunately, the role of these Bagamat-i-Bhopal has been left untouched or ignored by the academic scholars. This study critically analyzed the role of Beghamat-i-Bhopal regarding female education in Hindustan in general and in Bhopal in particular. Similarly, the contribution of the contemporary writers in development of female education in Bhopal has also been discussed in this paper. This paper is based on the 'historico-textual' approach following structural reason which has established a justifiable argument. The researcher, therefore, has taken into consideration all the chronological nuances in order to accord greater visibility to the contents. The data has been described, analyzed and interpreted inclusively and in generalized manner.

Keywords: colonialism, Begamaat e Bhopal, female education, State of Bhopal

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Authors: Migena Mana, Ahmed Khalid Syed, Abdul Malik, Nikhil Cherian

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In recent years, advancements in deep learning enabled researchers to tackle the problem of self-driving cars. Car companies use huge datasets to train their deep learning models to make autonomous cars a reality. However, this approach has certain drawbacks in that the state space of possible actions for a car is so huge that there cannot be a dataset for every possible road scenario. To overcome this problem, the concept of reinforcement learning (RL) is being investigated in this research. Since the problem of autonomous driving can be modeled in a simulation, it lends itself naturally to the domain of reinforcement learning. The advantage of this approach is that we can model different and complex road scenarios in a simulation without having to deploy in the real world. The autonomous agent can learn to drive by finding the optimal policy. This learned model can then be easily deployed in a real-world setting. In this project, we focus on three RL algorithms: Q-learning, Deep Deterministic Policy Gradient (DDPG), and Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO). To model the environment, we have used TORCS (The Open Racing Car Simulator), which provides us with a strong foundation to test our model. The inputs to the algorithms are the sensor data provided by the simulator such as velocity, distance from side pavement, etc. The outcome of this research project is a comparative analysis of these algorithms. Based on the comparison, the PPO algorithm gives the best results. When using PPO algorithm, the reward is greater, and the acceleration, steering angle and braking are more stable compared to the other algorithms, which means that the agent learns to drive in a better and more efficient way in this case. Additionally, we have come up with a dataset taken from the training of the agent with DDPG and PPO algorithms. It contains all the steps of the agent during one full training in the form: (all input values, acceleration, steering angle, break, loss, reward). This study can serve as a base for further complex road scenarios. Furthermore, it can be enlarged in the field of computer vision, using the images to find the best policy.

Keywords: autonomous driving, DDPG (deep deterministic policy gradient), PPO (proximal policy optimization), reinforcement learning

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Authors: Shah Awan, Fahad Sultan, Shahid Jan Kakakhel

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Higher education in the 21st century has been faced with game-changing developments impacting teaching and learning and also strengthening the academia and industry relationship. The academia and industry relationship plays a key role in economic development in developed, developing and emerging economies. The partnership not only explores innovation but also provide a real time experience of the theoretical knowledge. For this purpose, the paper assessing the role of HEC in the Pakistan and discusses the way in academia and industry contribute their role in improving Pakistani economy. Successive studies have reported the importance of innovation and technology , research development initiatives in public sector universities, and the significance of role of higher education commission in strengthening the academia and industrial relationship to improve performance and minimize failure. The paper presents the results of interviews conducted, using semi-structured interviews amongst 26 staff members of two public sector universities, higher education commission and managers from corporate sector.The study shows public sector universities face the several barriers in developing economy like Pakistan, to establish the successful collaboration between universities and industry. Of the participants interviewed, HEC provides an insufficient road map to improve organisational capabilities in facilitating and enhance the performance. The results of this study have demonstrated that HEC has to embrace and internalize support to industry and public sector universities to compete in the era of globalization. Publication of this research paper will help higher education sector to further strengthen research sector through industry and university collaboration. The research findings corroborate the findings of Dooley and Kirk who highlights the features of university-industry collaboration. Enhanced communication has implications for the quality of the product and human resource. Crucial for developing economies, feasible organisational design and framework is essential for the university-industry relationship.

Keywords: higher education commission, role, academia and industry relationship, Pakistan

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Authors: Parastoo Kazemiyan

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Over the past 80 years, in compliance with the advent of modernity in Iran and Turkey, the presence of women in economic and social arenas has creates serious challenges in the capacity of urban spaces to respond to their presence and transport because urban spaces up until then were based on masculine criteria and therefore, women could use such spaces in the company of their fathers or husbands. However, as modernity expanded by Reza Shah and Ataturk, women found the opportunity to work and be present in urban spaces alongside men and their presence in economic and social domains resulted in their presence in these spaces in the early and late hours of the day. Therefore, the city had to be transformed in structural, social, and environmental terms to accommodate women's activities and presence in various urban arenas, which was a huge step in transition from a masculine man-based culture to an all-inclusive human-based culture in these two countries. However, the optimization of urban space was subject to political changes in the two countries, leading to significant differences in designing urban spaces in Tehran and Istanbul. What shows the importance and novelty of the present study lie in the differences in urban planning and optimization in the two capital cities, which gave rise to different outcomes in desirability and quality of living in these two capital cities. Due to the importance of the topic, one of the most significant factors in desirability and acceptability of urban space for women was examined using a descriptive-analytic method based on qualitative methodology in Tehran and Istanbul. The results showed that the infrastructural factors in Istanbul, including safety of access, variety, and number of public transport modes, transparency, and supervision over public spaces have provided women with a safer and more constant presence compared to Tehran. It seems that challenges involved in providing access to urban spaces in Tehran in terms of infrastructure and function have made Tehran unable to respond to the most basic needs of its female citizens.

Keywords: gender differences, urban space security, access to transportation systems, women's challenges

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Authors: Ziaullah, Shah Wahab Ali

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Micro-grid equipped with heterogeneous energy resources present the idea of small scale distributed energy management (DEM). DEM helps in minimizing the transmission and operation costs, power management and peak load demands. Micro-grids are collections of small, independent controllable power-generating units and renewable energy resources. Micro-grids also motivate to enable active customer participation by giving accessibility of real-time information and control to the customer. The capability of fast restoration against faulty situation, integration of renewable energy resources and Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) make micro-grid as an ideal system for distributed power systems. Micro-grids can have a bank of energy storage devices. The energy management system of micro-grid can perform real-time energy forecasting of renewable resources, energy storage elements and controllable loads in making proper short-term scheduling to minimize total operating costs. We present a review of existing micro-grids optimization objectives/goals, constraints, solution approaches and tools used in micro-grids for energy management. Cost-benefit analysis of micro-grid reveals that cooperation among different micro-grids can play a vital role in the reduction of import energy cost and system stability. Cooperative micro-grids energy trading is an approach to electrical distribution energy resources that allows local energy demands more control over the optimization of power resources and uses. Cooperation among different micro-grids brings the interconnectivity and power trading issues. According to the literature, it shows that open area of research is available for cooperative micro-grids energy trading. In this paper, we proposed and formulated the efficient energy management/trading module for interconnected micro-grids. It is believed that this research will open new directions in future for energy trading in cooperative micro-grids/interconnected micro-grids.

Keywords: distributed energy management, information and communication technologies, microgrid, energy management

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Authors: Inayat Shah, Muhammad Omar Malik, Ghareeb Alshuwaier, Ronald H. Baxendale

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Background: The balance between angiogenesis and angiostasis is important in growth and developmental processes in the body. Angiogenic and angiostatic mediators control this balance. Endostatin is one of the prominent angiostatic mediators. The marked angiostatic effect of endostatin includes inhibiting endothelial cell migration, proliferation and apoptosis. Physical activity decreases the risk and development of many angiogenesis related health problems including atherosclerosis and numerous cancers. Physiological influences of different physical activities on plasma endostatin concentration are controversial and not completely clear. Moreover, correlation of physical characteristics and metabolic predictors during physical activity on circulating endostatin is indistinct and poorly speculated. The study aimed to determine the effects of mild, moderate and vigorous exercise on the concentration of endostatin in plasma. Methodology: 22 participants, 16 males (age = 30.6 ± 7.8 years) and 6 females (age = 26.5 ± 5 years) were recruited. Weekly session of different intensities exercise based on the predicted maximum heart of the participants [60%(low), 70% (moderate) and 80% (vigorous)] were carried out. The duration and work rate for each participant was determined through sub-maximal exercise. Standardization of the session was done on total energy expenditure of the participants per session. One pre exercise and two post exercise samples were taken at intervals of 10 and 60 minutes. Results: Pre-exercise mean endostatin was 101 ± 20 ng/dl. Low intensity exercise insignificantly decreased the endostatin concentration in plasma at 10 and 60 minutes 97 ± 20 ng/dl (p= 0.5), 98 ± 23 ng/dl (p= 0.8)). However, moderate (p= 0.022, 0.004) and vigorous intensities (p ≤ 0.001, 0.02) increased the endostatin concentrations significantly at both 10 and 60 minutes intervals respectively. The effects were not significantly influenced by gender, exercise mode (walking vs. running), components of exercise (HR, Speed, Gradients, distance, duration) or metabolism during exercise (VO₂ max, VCO₂, RER, energy expenditure, rate of carbohydrate or fats oxidation). Conclusion: Low intensity exercises did not influence endostatin concentration. However, moderate to high intensity exercises significantly increase endostatin concentration and may have potential benefits.

Keywords: angiogenesis, exercise, endostatin, physical activity

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Authors: Syed Dawood Md. Taimur, Saidur Rahman Khan, Farzana Islam

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Objective: To evaluate the factors which predetermine the coronary artery disease in patients having positive Exercise Tolerance Test (ETT) that is treadmill results and coronary artery findings. Methods: This descriptive study was conducted at Department of Cardiology, Ibrahim Cardiac Hospital & Research Institute,Dhaka,Bangladesh from 1st January, 2014 to 31st August, 2014. All patients who had done ETT (treadmill) for chest pain diagnosis were studied. One hundred and four patients underwent coronary angiogram after positive treadmill result. Patients were divided into two groups depending upon the angiographic findings, i.e. true positive and false positive. Positive treadmill test patients who have coronary artery involvement these are called true positive and who have no involvement they are called false positive group. Both groups were compared with each other. Results: Out of 104 patients, 81 (77.9%) patients had true positive ETT and 23 (22.1%) patients had false positive ETT. The mean age of patients in positive ETT was 53.46± 8.06 years and male mean age was 53.63±8.36 years and female was 52.87 ± 7.0 years. Sixty nine (85.19%) male patients and twelve (14.81%) female patients had true positive ETT, whereas 15 (65.21%) males and 8 (34.79%) females had false positive ETT, this was statistically significant (p<0.032)difference in the two groups(sex) in comparison of true and false positive ETT. The risk factors of these patients like diabetes mellitus, hypertension, dyslipidemia, family history and smoking were seen among these patients. Hypertensive patients having true positive which were statically significant (p<0.004) and diabetic, dyslipidaemic patients having true positive which were statically significant (p < 0.032 & 0.030).True positive patients had family history were 68 (83.95%) and smoking were 52 (64.20%), where family history patients had statistically significant(p<0.017) between two groups of patients and smokers were significant (p<0.012). 46 true positive patients achieved THR which was not statistically significant (P<0.138)and 79 true patients had abnormal resting ECG whether it was significant (p<0.036). Amongst the vessels involvement the most common was LAD 55 (67.90%), followed by LCX 42 (51.85%), RCA 36 (44.44%) and the LMCA was 9 (11.11%), .40 patients (49.38%) had SVD, 26 (30.10%) had DVD, 15(18.52%) had TVD and 23 had normal coronary arteries. Conclusion: It can be concluded that among the female patients who have positive ETT with normal resting ECG, who had achieved target heart rate are likely to have a false positive test result. Conversely male patients,resting abnormal ECG who had not achieved THR, symptom limited ETT, have a hypertension, diabetis, dyslipidaemic, family history and smoking are likely to have a true positive treadmill test result.

Keywords: exercise tolerance test, coronary artery disease, coronary angiography, true positive, false positive

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Authors: Afzal Hussain, Mohammad A. Altamimi, Syed Sarim Imam, Mudassar Shahid, Osamah Abdulrahman Alnemer

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Exhaustive application of sulfamethoxazole (SUX) became as a global threat for human health due to water contamination through diverse sources. The addressed combined application of Hansen solubility (HSPiP software) parameters and Quality by Design tool for developing various green nanoemulsions. HSPiP program assisted to screen suitable excipients based on Hansen solubility parameters and experimental solubility data. Various green nanoemulsions were prepared and characterized for globular size, size distribution, zeta potential, and removal efficiency. Design Expert (DoE) software further helped to identify critical factors responsible to have direct impact on percent removal efficiency, size, and viscosity. Morphological investigation was visualized under transmission electron microscopy (TEM). Finally, the treated was studied to negate the presence of the tested drug employing ICP-OES (inductively coupled plasma optical emission microscopy) technique and HPLC (high performance liquid chromatography). Results showed that HSPiP predicted biocompatible lipid, safe surfactant (lecithin), and propylene glycol (PG). Experimental solubility of the drug in the predicted excipients were quite convincing and vindicated. Various green nanoemulsions were fabricated, and these were evaluated for in vitro findings. Globular size (100-300 nm), PDI (0.1-0.5), zeta potential (~ 25 mV), and removal efficiency (%RE = 70-98%) were found to be in acceptable range for deciding input factors with level in DoE. Experimental design tool assisted to identify the most critical variables controlling %RE and optimized content of nanoemulsion under set constraints. Dispersion time was varied from 5-30 min. Finally, ICP-OES and HPLC techniques corroborated the absence of SUX in the treated water. Thus, the strategy is simple, economic, selective, and efficient.

Keywords: quality by design, sulfamethoxazole, green nanoemulsion, water treatment, icp-oes, hansen program (hspip software

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Authors: Ashraf Mohammadzadeh, Ahmad Shah Farhat, Azin Vaezi, Aradokht Vaezi

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Background & Aim: Preterm infants born at less than 34 weeks postconceptional age are not as neurologically mature as their term counterparts and thus have difficulty coordinating sucking, swallowing and breathing. As a result, they are traditionally gavage fed until they are able to oral feed successfully. The aim of study was to evaluate comparative effect of orogastric and breast feeding on oxygen saturation in very low birth weight infant (<1500gm). Patients and Methods: In this clinical trial all babies admitted in the Neonatal Research Center of Imamreza Hospital, Mashhad during a 4 months period were elected. Criteria for entrance to study included birth weight ≤ 1500 grams, exclusive breastfeeding, having no special problem after 48 hours, receivinge only routine care and intake of milk was 100cc/kg/day. Each neonate received two rounds of orogastric and breast feeding in the morning and in the afternoon, during which mean oxygen saturation was measured by pulse-oxymetry. During the study the heart rate and temperature of the neonates were monitored, and in case of hypothermia, bradycardia(less than 100 per minute) or apnea the feeding was discontinued and the study was repeated the following day. Data analysis was carried out using SPSS. Results: Fifty neonates were studied. The average birth weight was 1267.20±165.42 grams and average gestational age was 31.81±1.92 and female/male ratio was 1.2. There was no significant statistical difference in arterial oxygen saturation in orogastric and breast feeding in the morning and in the afternoon. (p=0.16 in the morning and p=0.6 in the afternoon). There was no complication of apnea, hypothermia or bradycardia. Conclusion: There was no significant statistical difference between the two methods in arterial oxygen saturation. It seems that oral feeding (which is a natural route) and skin contact between the mother and neonate causes a strong emotional bonding between the two and brings about better social adaptation for the neonate. Also shorter period of stay in hospital is more preferred, and breast feeding should be started at the earliest possible time after birth.

Keywords: Very low birth weight (V.L.B.W), O2 Saturation, Breast Feeding, Tube Feeding

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Authors: Muhammad Asif Syed, Mirza Amir Baig

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Background: Pakistan is one of the two remaining polio-endemic countries, posing a significant public health challenge for global polio eradication due to failure to interrupt polio transmission. Country specific seroprevalence studies help in the evaluation of immunization program performance, the susceptibility of population against polio virus and identification of existing level of immunity with factors that affect seroconversion of the oral polio vaccine (OPV). The objective of the study was to find out factors associated with seroconversion of the OPV among children 6-59 months in Pakistan. Methods: A Hospital based cross-sectional serosurvey was undertaken in May-June 2015 at District Mirpurkhas, Sindh-Pakistan. Total 180 children aged 6–59 months were selected by using systematic random sampling from Muhammad Medical College Hospital, Mirpurkhas. Demographic, vaccination history and risk factors information were collected from the parents/guardian. Blood sample was collected and tested for the detection of poliovirus IgG antibodies by using ELISA Kit. The IgG titer <10 IU/ml, 50 to <150 IU/ml and >150 IU/ml was defined as negative, weak positive and positive immunity respectively. Pearson Chi-square test was used to determine the difference in seroprevalence in univariate analysis. Results: A total of 180 subjects were enrolled mean age was 23 months (7 -59 months). Off these 160 (89%) children were well and 18 (10%) partially protected against polio virus. Two (1.1%) children had no protection against polio virus as they had <10 IU/ml poliovirus IgG antibodies titer. Both negative cases belong from the female gender, age group 12-23 months, urban area and BMI <50 percentile. There was a difference between normal and the wasting children; it did attain statistical significance (χ2= 35.5, p=0.00). The difference in seroconversion was also observed in relation to the gender (χ2=6.23, p=0.04), duration of breast feeding (χ2=18.6, p=0.04), history of diarrheal disease before polio vaccine administration (χ2=7.7, p=0.02), and stunting (χ2= 114, p=0.00). Conclusion: This study demonstrated that near 90% children achieve seroconversion of OPV and well protected against polio virus. There is an urgent need to focus on factors like duration of breast feeding, diarrheal diseases and malnutrition (acute and chronic) among the children as an immunization strategy.

Keywords: seroconversion, oral polio vaccine, Polio, Pakistan

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Authors: Salahud Din, Saima Masood, Hafsa Zaneb, Habib-Ur Rehman, Imad Khan, Muqader Shah

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The present study was carried out on the gross anatomy, biometery and radiographic analysis of tarsal bones in twenty specimens of adult chinkara (Gazella bennettii). The desired bones were collected from the graveyards present in the locality of the different safari parks and zoos in Pakistan. To observe the edges and articulations between the bones, the radiographic images were acquired in craniocaudals and mediolateral views of the intact limbs. The gross and radiographic studies of the tarsus of adult Chinkara were carried out in University of Veterinary and Animal Sciences, Lahore, Pakistan. The tarsus of chinkara comprised of five bones both grossly and radiographically, settled in three transverse rows: tibial and fibular tarsal in the proximal, central and fourth fused tarsal in the middle row, the first, second and third fused tarsal in the distal row. The fibular tarsal was the largest and longest bone of the hock, situated on the lateral side and had a bulbous tuber calcis 'point of the hock' at the proximal extremity which projects upward and backward. The average maximum height and breadth for fibular tarsal was 5.61 ± 0.23 cm and 2.06 ± 0.13 cm, respectively. The tibial tarsal bones were the 2nd largest bone of the proximal row and lie on the medial side of the tarsus bears trochlea at either end. The average maximum height and breadth for tibial tarsal was 2.79 ± 0.05 cm and 1.74 ± 0.01 cm, respectively. The central and the fourth tarsals were fused to form a large bone which extends across the entire width of the tarsus and articulates with all bones of the tarsus. A nutrient foramen was present in the center of the non auricular area, more prominent on the ventral surface. The average maximum height and breadth for central and fourth fused tarsal was 1.51 ± 0.13 cm and 2.08 ± 0.07 cm, respectively. The first tarsal was a quadrilateral piece of bone placed on the poteriomedial surface of the hock. The greatest length and maximum breadth of the first tarsal was 0.94 ± 0.01 cm and 1.01 ± 0.01 cm, respectively. The second and third fused tarsal bone resembles the central but was smaller and triangular in outline. It was situated between the central above and the large metatarsal bone below. The greatest length and maximum breadth of second and third fused tarsal was 0.98 ± 0.01 cm and 1.49 ± 0.01 cm.

Keywords: chinkara, morphometry, radiography, tarsal bone

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Authors: Safee Chaudhary, Mahnoor Naseer Gondal, Hira Anees Awan, Abdul Rehman, Ammar Arif, Risham Hussain, Huma Khawar, Zainab Arshad, Muhammad Faizyab Ali Chaudhary, Waleed Ahmed, Muhammad Umer Sultan, Bibi Amina, Salaar Khan, Muhammad Moaz Ahmad, Osama Shiraz Shah, Hadia Hameed, Muhammad Farooq Ahmad Butt, Muhammad Ahmad, Sameer Ahmed, Fayyaz Ahmed, Omer Ishaq, Waqar Nabi, Wim Vanderbauwhede, Bilal Wajid, Huma Shehwana, Muhammad Tariq, Amir Faisal

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Cancer is a manifestation of multifactorial deregulations in biomolecular pathways. These deregulations arise from the complex multi-scale interplay between cellular and extracellular factors. Such multifactorial aberrations at gene, protein, and extracellular scales need to be investigated systematically towards decoding the underlying mechanisms and orchestrating therapeutic interventions for patient treatment. In this work, we propose ‘TISON’, a next-generation web-based multiscale modeling platform for clinical systems oncology. TISON’s unique modeling abstraction allows a seamless coupling of information from biomolecular networks, cell decision circuits, extra-cellular environments, and tissue geometries. The platform can undertake multiscale sensitivity analysis towards in silico biomarker identification and drug evaluation on cellular phenotypes in user-defined tissue geometries. Furthermore, integration of cancer expression databases such as The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) and Human Proteome Atlas (HPA) facilitates in the development of personalized therapeutics. TISON is the next-evolution of multiscale cancer modeling and simulation platforms and provides a ‘zero-code’ model development, simulation, and analysis environment for application in clinical settings.

Keywords: systems oncology, cancer systems biology, cancer therapeutics, personalized therapeutics, cancer modelling

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Authors: Parth Shah

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The author examines the recent trend where business organizations are significantly reducing their developmental cycle times to stay competitive in today’s global marketspace. The author proposes a rapid systems engineering framework to address late design changes and allow for flexibility (i.e. to react to unexpected or late changes and its impacts) during the product development cycle using a Systems Engineering approach. A System Engineering approach is crucial in today’s product development to deliver complex products into the marketplace. Design changes can occur due to shortened timelines and also based on initial consumer feedback once a product or service is in the marketplace. The ability to react to change and address customer expectations in a responsive and cost-efficient manner is crucial for any organization to succeed. Past literature, research, and methods such as concurrent development, simultaneous engineering, knowledge management, component sharing, rapid product integration, tailored systems engineering processes, and studies on reducing product development cycles all suggest a research gap exist in specifically addressing late design changes due to the shortening of life cycle environments in increasingly competitive markets. The author’s research suggests that 1) product development cycles time scales are now measured in months instead of years, 2) more and more products have interdepended systems and environments that are fast-paced and resource critical, 3) product obsolesce is higher and more organizations are releasing products and services frequently, and 4) increasingly competitive markets are leading to customization based on consumer feedback. The author will quantify effectiveness with respect to success factors such as time-to-market, return-of-investment, life cycle time and flexibility in late design changes by complexity of product or service, number of late changes and ability to react and reduce late design changes.

Keywords: product development, rapid systems engineering, scalability, systems engineering, systems integration, systems life cycle

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Authors: Yijun Shao, Yan Cheng, Rashmee U. Shah, Charlene R. Weir, Bruce E. Bray, Qing Zeng-Treitler

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Deep neural network (DNN) models are being explored in the clinical domain, following the recent success in other domains such as image recognition. For clinical adoption, outcome prediction models require explanation, but due to the multiple non-linear inner transformations, DNN models are viewed by many as a black box. In this study, we developed a deep neural network model for predicting 1-year mortality of patients who underwent major cardio vascular procedures (MCVPs), using temporal image representation of past medical history as input. The dataset was obtained from the electronic medical data warehouse administered by Veteran Affairs Information and Computing Infrastructure (VINCI). We identified 21,355 veterans who had their first MCVP in 2014. Features for prediction included demographics, diagnoses, procedures, medication orders, hospitalizations, and frailty measures extracted from clinical notes. Temporal variables were created based on the patient history data in the 2-year window prior to the index MCVP. A temporal image was created based on these variables for each individual patient. To generate the explanation for the DNN model, we defined a new concept called impact score, based on the presence/value of clinical conditions’ impact on the predicted outcome. Like (log) odds ratio reported by the logistic regression (LR) model, impact scores are continuous variables intended to shed light on the black box model. For comparison, a logistic regression model was fitted on the same dataset. In our cohort, about 6.8% of patients died within one year. The prediction of the DNN model achieved an area under the curve (AUC) of 78.5% while the LR model achieved an AUC of 74.6%. A strong but not perfect correlation was found between the aggregated impact scores and the log odds ratios (Spearman’s rho = 0.74), which helped validate our explanation.

Keywords: deep neural network, temporal data, prediction, frailty, logistic regression model

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Authors: Ankit Shah, R. K. Shrivastava

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Flood and drought are two main features of hydrology which affect the human life. Floods are natural disasters which cause millions of rupees’ worth of damage each year in India and the whole world. Flood causes destruction in form of life and property. An accurate estimate of the flood damage potential is a key element to an effective, nationwide flood damage abatement program. Also, the increase in demand of water due to increase in population, industrial and agricultural growth, has let us know that though being a renewable resource it cannot be taken for granted. We have to optimize the use of water according to circumstances and conditions and need to harness it which can be done by construction of hydraulic structures. For their safe and proper functioning of hydraulic structures, we need to predict the flood magnitude and its impact. Hydraulic structures play a key role in harnessing and optimization of flood water which in turn results in safe and maximum use of water available. Mainly hydraulic structures are constructed on ungauged sites. There are two methods by which we can estimate flood viz. generation of Unit Hydrographs and Flood Frequency Analysis. In this study, Regional Flood Frequency Analysis has been employed. There are many methods for estimating the ‘Regional Flood Frequency Analysis’ viz. Index Flood Method. National Environmental and Research Council (NERC Methods), Multiple Regression Method, etc. However, none of the methods can be considered universal for every situation and location. The Narmada basin is located in Central India. It is drained by most of the tributaries, most of which are ungauged. Therefore it is very difficult to estimate flood on these tributaries and in the main river. As mentioned above Artificial Neural Network (ANN)s and Multiple Regression Method is used for determination of Regional flood Frequency. The annual peak flood data of 20 sites gauging sites of Narmada Basin is used in the present study to determine the Regional Flood relationships. Homogeneity of the considered sites is determined by using the Index Flood Method. Flood relationships obtained by both the methods are compared with each other, and it is found that ANN is more reliable than Multiple Regression Method for the present study area.

Keywords: artificial neural network, index flood method, multi layer perceptrons, multiple regression, Narmada basin, regional flood frequency

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