Search results for: indicators of self-sufficiency

Authors: Maryam Sayadi, Rana Sedighpour, Hossein Rezaie

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In this study, in order to evaluate water quality of Gamasiab and Gharehsoo rivers located in Kermanshah province, the information of a 5-year statistical period during the years 2014-2018 was used. To evaluate the hydrochemistry of water, first the type and hydrogeochemical facies of river water were determined using Stiff and Piper diagrams. Then, based on Gibbs diagram and combination diagrams, the factors controlling the chemical parameters of the two rivers were identified. Saturation indices were used to predict the possibility of dissolution and deposition of some minerals. Then, in order to classify water in different sections, fourteen water quality indicators for different uses along with WHO standard were used. Finally, factor analysis was used to determine the processes affecting the hydrochemistry of the two rivers. The results of this study showed that in both rivers, the predominant type and facies are bicarbonate of calcite. Also, the main factor in changing the chemical quality of water in both Gamasiab and Gharehsoo rivers is the water-rock reaction. According to the results of factor analysis in both rivers, two factors have the greatest impact on water quality in the region. Among the parameters of Gamasiab river in the first factor, HCO3-, Na+ and Cl-, respectively, had the highest factor loads, and in the second factor, SO42- and Mg2+ were selected as the main parameters. The parameters Ca2+, Cl- and Na have the highest factor loads in the first factor and in the second factor Mg2+ and SO42- have the highest factor loads in Gharehsoo river. The dissolution of carbonate formations due to their abundance and expansion in the two basins has a more significant effect on changing water chemistry. It has saturated the water of rivers with aragonite, calcite and dolomite. Due to the low contribution of the second factor in changing the chemical parameters, the water of both rivers is saturated with respect to evaporative minerals such as gypsum, halite and anhydrite in all stations. Based on Schoeller diagrams, Wilcox and other quality indicators in these two sections, the amount of main physicochemical parameters are in the desired range for drinking and agriculture. The results of Langelier, Ryznar, Larson-Skold and Puckorius indices showed that water is corrosive in industry.

Keywords: factor analysis, hydrochemical, saturation index, surface water quality

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Authors: Saeed Anwar

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Foreign aid has long been a prominent tool in the pursuit of economic development in recipient countries. This research paper aims to analyze the impact of foreign aid on economic development and explore the effectiveness of aid in promoting sustainable growth, poverty reduction, and improvements in human development indicators. Drawing upon a comprehensive review of existing literature, both theoretical frameworks and empirical evidence are synthesized to provide insights into the complex relationship between foreign aid and economic development. The paper examines various channels through which foreign aid influences economic development, including infrastructure development, education and healthcare investments, technology transfer, and institutional capacity building. It explores the potential positive effects of aid in stimulating economic growth, reducing poverty, and enhancing human capital formation. Additionally, it investigates the potential challenges and limitations associated with aid, such as aid dependency, governance issues, and the potential crowding out of domestic resources. Furthermore, the study assesses the heterogeneity of aid effectiveness across different types of aid modalities, recipient country characteristics, and aid allocation mechanisms. It considers the role of aid conditionality, aid fragmentation, and aid targeting in influencing the effectiveness of aid in promoting economic development. The findings of this research contribute to the ongoing discourse on foreign aid and economic development by providing a comprehensive analysis of the existing literature. The study highlights the importance of context-specific factors, recipient country policies, and aid effectiveness frameworks in determining the impact of foreign aid on economic development outcomes. The insights derived from this research can inform policymakers, donor agencies, and practitioners in designing and implementing effective aid strategies to maximize the positive impact of foreign aid on economic development.

Keywords: foreign aid, economic development, sustainable growth, poverty reduction, human development indicators, infrastructure development, education, healthcare, technology transfer, institutional capacity building, aid effectiveness, aid dependency, governance, crowding out, aid conditionality, aid fragmentation, aid targeting, recipient country policies, aid strategies, donor agencies, policymaking

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Authors: Inna R. Edara, Haw-Lin Wu

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Positive psychology investigates human strengths and virtues and promotes well-being. Relying on this assumption, positive interventions have been continuously designed to build pleasure and happiness, joy and contentment, engagement and meaning, hope and optimism, satisfaction and gratitude, spirituality, and various other positive measures of well-being. In line with this model of positive psychology and interventions, this study investigated certain measures of well-being in a group of 45 students enrolled in an 18-week positive psychology course and simultaneously engaged in service-oriented interventions that they chose for themselves based on the course content and individual interests. Students’ well-being was measured at the beginning and end of the course. The well-being indicators included positive automatic thoughts, optimism and hope, satisfaction with life, and spirituality. A paired-samples t-test conducted to evaluate the impact of class content and service-oriented interventions on students’ scores of well-being indicators indicated statistically significant increase from pre-class to post-class scores. There were also significant gender differences in post-course well-being scores, with females having higher levels of well-being than males. A two-way between groups analysis of variance indicated a significant interaction effect of age by gender on the post-course well-being scores, with females in the age group of 56-65 having the highest scores of well-being in comparison to the males in the same age group. Regression analyses indicated that positive automatic thought significantly predicted hope and satisfaction with life in the pre-course analysis. In the post-course regression analysis, spiritual transcendence made a significant contribution to optimism, and positive automatic thought made a significant contribution to both hope and satisfaction with life. Finally, a significant test between pre-course and post-course regression coefficients indicated that the regression coefficients at pre-course were significantly different from post-course coefficients, suggesting that the positive psychology course and the interventions were helpful in raising the levels of well-being. The overall results suggest a substantial increase in the participants’ well-being scores after engaging in the positive-oriented interventions, implying a need for designing more positive interventions in education to promote well-being.  

Keywords: hope, optimism, positive automatic thoughts, satisfaction with life, spirituality, well-being

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Authors: Louk Aourelien Andrianos, Edward Dommen, Athena Peralta

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Greed, as epitomized by overconsumption of natural resources, is at the root of ecological destruction and unsustainability of modern societies. Presently economies rely on unrestricted structural greed which fuels unlimited economic growth, overconsumption, and individualistic competitive behavior. Structural greed undermines the life support system on earth and threatens ecological integrity, social justice and peace. The World Council of Churches (WCC) has developed a program on ecological and economic justice (EEJ) with the aim to promote an economy of life where the economy is embedded in society and society in ecology. This paper aims at analyzing and assessing the economy of life (EcoLife) by offering an empirical tool to measure and monitor the root causes and effects of unsustainability resulting from human greed on global, national, institutional and individual levels. This holistic approach is based on the integrity of ecology and economy in a society founded on justice. The paper will discuss critical questions such as ‘what is an economy of life’ and ‘how to measure and control it from the effect of greed’. A model called GLIMS, which stands for Greed Lines and Indices Measurement System is used to clarify the concept of greed and help measuring the economy of life index by fuzzy logic reasoning. The inputs of the model are from statistical indicators of natural resources consumption, financial realities, economic performance, social welfare and ethical and political facts. The outputs are concrete measures of three primary indices of ecological, economic and socio-political greed (ECOL-GI, ECON-GI, SOCI-GI) and one overall multidimensional economy of life index (EcoLife-I). EcoLife measurement aims to build awareness of an economy life and to address the effects of greed in systemic and structural aspects. It is a tool for ethical diagnosis and policy making.

Keywords: greed line, sustainability indicators, fuzzy logic, eco-justice, World Council of Churches (WCC)

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Authors: Ankit Kumar Yadav, Nagendra R. Velaga

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Driving under the influence of alcohol impairs the driving performance and increases the crash risks worldwide. The present study investigated the effect of different Blood Alcohol Concentrations (BAC) on the accelerating and braking behaviour of drivers with the help of driving simulator experiments. Eighty-two licensed Indian drivers drove on the rural road environment designed in the driving simulator at BAC levels of 0.00%, 0.03%, 0.05%, and 0.08% respectively. Driving performance was analysed with the help of vehicle control performance indicators such as mean acceleration and mean brake pedal force of the participants. Preliminary analysis reported an increase in mean acceleration and mean brake pedal force with increasing BAC levels. Generalized linear mixed models were developed to quantify the effect of different alcohol levels and explanatory variables such as driver’s age, gender and other driver characteristic variables on the driving performance indicators. Alcohol use was reported as a significant factor affecting the accelerating and braking performance of the drivers. The acceleration model results indicated that mean acceleration of the drivers increased by 0.013 m/s², 0.026 m/s² and 0.027 m/s² for the BAC levels of 0.03%, 0.05% and 0.08% respectively. Results of the brake pedal force model reported that mean brake pedal force of the drivers increased by 1.09 N, 1.32 N and 1.44 N for the BAC levels of 0.03%, 0.05% and 0.08% respectively. Age was a significant factor in both the models where one year increase in drivers’ age resulted in 0.2% reduction in mean acceleration and 19% reduction in mean brake pedal force of the drivers. It shows that driving experience could compensate for the negative effects of alcohol to some extent while driving. Female drivers were found to accelerate slower and brake harder as compared to the male drivers which confirmed that female drivers are more conscious about their safety while driving. It was observed that drivers who were regular exercisers had better control on their accelerator pedal as compared to the non-regular exercisers during drunken driving. The findings of the present study revealed that drivers tend to be more aggressive and impulsive under the influence of alcohol which deteriorates their driving performance. Drunk driving state can be differentiated from sober driving state by observing the accelerating and braking behaviour of the drivers. The conclusions may provide reference in making countermeasures against drinking and driving and contribute to traffic safety.

Keywords: alcohol, acceleration, braking behaviour, driving simulator

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Authors: Rodrigo Arnaldo Scarpel

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Trend following is a widely accepted investment strategy that adopts a rule-based trading mechanism that rather than striving to predict market direction or on information gathering to decide when to buy and when to sell a stock. Thus, in trend following one must respond to market’s movements that has recently happen and what is currently happening, rather than on what will happen. Optimally, in trend following strategy, is to catch a bull market at its early stage, ride the trend, and liquidate the position at the first evidence of the subsequent bear market. For applying the trend following strategy one needs to find the trend and identify trade signals. In order to avoid false signals, i.e., identify fluctuations of short, mid and long terms and to separate noise from real changes in the trend, most academic works rely on moving averages and other technical analysis indicators, such as the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) and the relative strength index (RSI) to uncover intelligible stock trading rules following trend following strategy philosophy. Recently, some works has applied machine learning techniques for trade rules discovery. In those works, the process of rule construction is based on evolutionary learning which aims to adapt the rules to the current environment and searches for the global optimum rules in the search space. In this work, instead of focusing on the usage of machine learning techniques for creating trading rules, a time series trend classification employing a semi-supervised approach was used to early identify both the beginning and the end of upward and downward trends. Such classification model can be employed to identify trade signals and the decision-making procedure is that if an up-trend (down-trend) is identified, a buy (sell) signal is generated. Semi-supervised learning is used for model training when only part of the data is labeled and Semi-supervised classification aims to train a classifier from both the labeled and unlabeled data, such that it is better than the supervised classifier trained only on the labeled data. For illustrating the proposed approach, it was employed daily trade information, including the open, high, low and closing values and volume from January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2022, of the São Paulo Exchange Composite index (IBOVESPA). Through this time period it was visually identified consistent changes in price, upwards or downwards, for assigning labels and leaving the rest of the days (when there is not a consistent change in price) unlabeled. For training the classification model, a pseudo-label semi-supervised learning strategy was used employing different technical analysis indicators. In this learning strategy, the core is to use unlabeled data to generate a pseudo-label for supervised training. For evaluating the achieved results, it was considered the annualized return and excess return, the Sortino and the Sharpe indicators. Through the evaluated time period, the obtained results were very consistent and can be considered promising for generating the intended trading signals.

Keywords: evolutionary learning, semi-supervised classification, time series data, trading signals generation

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Authors: Ammal M. Metwally, Walaa A. Basha, Ghada A. Abdel-Latif, Amira S. El Rifay

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Introduction: Improving breastfeeding practices does not always link to interventions relying on improving nutrition awareness and education alone but needs cultural and behavioral insights. Aim: Our study provided educational intervention through the use of the social marketing (SM) approach, which was respectable to societal norms allowing more conscious choices by mothers to achieve the maximum potential of physical growth of their infants. This study evaluated the effectiveness of the used approach for improving breastfeeding practices and the physical growth of infants aged up to 2 years. Methodology: A quasi-experimental intervention design with a posttest-only control design was done over three years duration to motivate mothers’ voluntary behavioral change toward breastfeeding promotion using SM principles: product, price, place, and promotion. The interventions targeted 464 pregnant women in their last trimester, mothers of children up to 2 years, and 1454 women in their childbearing period. Results: Most mothers showed increased awareness about the benefits of breastfeeding and became interested in breastfeeding their children outside the house using the breastfeeding cover (Gawn). Breastfeeding initiation, exclusive breastfeeding under six months, frequency of breastfeeding per day, and percentage of children who continued breastfeeding till two years were significantly increased (from 30%, 23 %, 56%, and 32% to 62 %, 47.3 %, 69 %, and 43.5 %). With the attention of the nutritional educational sessions three or more times, the majority of indicators had the most significant improvement. The females who recorded underweight results over males during the first two years of life significantly improved after the intervention (from 53.8 % to 15.4%, respectively). At the same time, females that were found to be obese before the intervention (7.7 %) became no longer obese. Conclusions: Nutritional interventions that are based on the use SM approach showed improvement for the majority of the key performance indicators. Although they doubled their value before the intervention, the majority were still modest (below 50 %). With sustained use of the SM approach, infants will achieve their maximum potential for physical growth by providing economically disadvantaged mothers with breastfeeding support.

Keywords: social marketing approach, early breastfeeding initiation, exclusive breastfeeding, responsiveness to cues of hunger and satiety, physical growth of infants

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Authors: E. Gouya Bozorg

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The issue of ranking of sports teams, in particular soccer teams is of primary importance in the professional sports. However, it is still based on classical statistics and models outside of area of mathematics. Rigorous mathematics and then statistics despite the expectation held of them have not been able to effectively engage in the issue of ranking. It is something that requires serious pathology. The purpose of this study is to change the approach to get closer to mathematics proper for using in the ranking. We recommend using theoretical mathematics as a good option because it can hermeneutically obtain the theoretical concepts and criteria needful for the ranking from everyday language of a League. We have proposed a framework that puts the issue of ranking into a new space that we have applied in soccer as a case study. This is an experimental and theoretical study on the issue of ranking in a professional soccer league based on theoretical mathematics, followed by theoretical statistics. First, we showed the theoretical definition of constant number Є = 1.33 or ‘golden number’ of a soccer league. Then, we have defined the ‘efficiency of a team’ by this number and formula of μ = (Pts / (k.Є)) – 1, in which Pts is a point obtained by a team in k number of games played. Moreover, K.Є index has been used to show the theoretical median line in the league table and to compare top teams and bottom teams. Theoretical coefficient of σ= 1 / (1+ (Ptx / Ptxn)) has also been defined that in every match between the teams x, xn, with respect to the ability of a team and the points of both of them Ptx, Ptxn, and it gives a performance point resulting in a special ranking for the League. And it has been useful particularly in evaluating the performance of weaker teams. The current theory has been examined for the statistical data of 4 major European Leagues during the period of 1998-2014. Results of this study showed that the issue of ranking is dependent on appropriate theoretical indicators of a League. These indicators allowed us to find different forms of ranking of teams in a league including the ‘special table’ of a league. Furthermore, on this basis the issue of a record of team has been revised and amended. In addition, the theory of ranking can be used to compare and classify the different leagues and tournaments. Experimental results obtained from archival statistics of major professional leagues in the world in the past two decades have confirmed the theory. This topic introduces a new theory for ranking of a soccer league. Moreover, this theory can be used to compare different leagues and tournaments.

Keywords: efficiency of a team, ranking, special table, theoretical mathematic

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Authors: Rui Pedro Fonseca

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This paper presents the results of a research about carnism on Portuguese television. It begins by presenting a case study of MasterChef program (TVI) which conveys carnism in both practices and language, and from which some characteristics of their dominant representations are described. Subsequently, the paper presents the indicators of the presence of carnism in the Portuguese television programming, between 2013 and 2014, in the TVI, RTP1, and SICS channels. The data reveals that there is the hegemony of the carnist ideology in the main channels of the Portuguese television. Also, the samples collected and viewed show no mention of the impacts of carnism in its various dimensions (non-human animals, environment, human health and sustainability).

Keywords: carnism, speciesism, television, Portugal

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Authors: Constanza Monterrubio-Solis, Jose Tomas Ibarra

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The fertile interdependence of social-ecological systems reveals itself in the interactions between native forests and seeds, home gardens, kitchens, foraging activities, local knowledge, and food practices, creating particular flavors and food meanings as part of cultural identities within territories. Resilience in local-food systems, from a relational perspective, can be understood as the balance between persistence and adaptability to change. Food growing, preparation, and consumption are constantly changing and adapting as expressions of agency of female and male indigenous peoples and peasants. This paper explores local food systems’ expressions of resilience in the la Araucanía region of Chile, namely: diversity, redundancy, buffer capacity, modularity, self-organization, governance, learning, equity, and decision-making. Applying ethnographic research methods (participant observation, focus groups, and semi-structured interviews), this work reflects on the experience developed through work with Mapuche women cultivating home gardens in the region since 2012; it looks to material and symbolic elements of resilience in the local indigenous food systems. Local food systems show indeed indicators of social-ecological resilience. The biocultural memory is expressed in affection to particular flavors and recipes, the cultural importance of seeds and reciprocity networks, as well as an accurate knowledge about the indicators of the seasons and weather, which have allowed local food systems to thrive with a strong cultural foundation. Furthermore, these elements turn into biocultural resistance in the face of the current institutional pressures for rural specialization, processes of cultural assimilation such as agroecosystems and diet homogenization, as well as structural threats towards the diversity and freedom of native seeds. Thus, the resilience-resistance dynamic shown by the social-ecological systems of the southern Andes is daily expressed in the local food systems and flavors and is key for diverse and culturally sound social-ecological health.

Keywords: biocultural heritage, indigenous food systems, social-ecological resilience, southern Andes

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Authors: Esam Mohammed Al-shaebi

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One of the most crucial approaches for treating human diseases, particularly parasite infections, is nanomedicine. One of the most significant protozoan diseases that impact farm and domestic animals is coccidiosis. While, amprolium is one of the traditional anticoccidial medication, the advent of drug-resistant strains of Eimeria necessitates the development of novel treatments. The goal of the current investigation was to determine whether biosynthesized selenium nanoparticles (Bio-SeNPs) using Azadirachta indica leaves extract might treat mice with Eimeria papillata infection in the jejunal tissue. Five groups of seven mice each were used, as follows: Group 1: Non-infected-non-treated (negative control). Group 2: Non-infected treated group with Bio-SeNPs (0.5 mg/kg of body weight). Groups 3-5 were orally inoculated with 1×103 sporulated oocysts of E. papillata. Group 3: Infected-non-treated (positive control). Group 4: Infected and treated group with Bio-SeNPs (0.5 mg/kg). Group 5: Infected and treated group with the Amprolium. Groups 4 and 5 daily received oral administration (for 5 days) of Bio-SeNPs and anticoccidial medication, respectively, after infection. Bio-SeNPs caused a considerable reduction in oocyst output in mice feces (97.21%). This was also accompanied by a significant reduction in the number of developmental parasitic stages in the jejunal tissues. Glutathione reduced (GSH), glutathione peroxidase (GPx), and superoxide dismutase (SOD) levels were dramatically reduced by the Eimeria parasite, whereas, nitric oxide (NO) and malonaldehyde (MDA) levels were markedly elevated. The amount of goblet cells and MUC2 gene expression were used as apoptotic indicators, and both were considerably downregulated by infection. However, infection markedly increased the expression of inflammatory cytokines (IL-6 and TNF-α) and the apoptotic genes (Caspase-3 and BCL2). Bio-SeNPs were administrated to mice to drastically lower body weight, oxidative stress, and inflammatory and apoptotic indicators in the jejunal tissue. Our research thus showed the involvement of Bio-SeNPs in protecting mice with E. papillata infections against jejunal damage.

Keywords: coccidiosis, nanoparticles, azadirachta indica, oxidative stress

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Authors: Ehsan Kadkhodaie, Shahin Parvar, Soroush Senemar, Mostafa Shriat, Abdolrasoul Malekpour

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The role of oil in supra distribution transformers is so critical and, several standards in determining the quality of oil have been offered. So far, moisture, viscosity and insulation protection of the oil have been measured based on mechanical and chemical methods and systems such as kart fisher, falling ball and TDM 4000 that most of these techniques are destructive and have many problems such as pollution. In this study, due to the properties of oil and also physical behavior of ultrasound wave new method was designed to in the determination of oil indicators including viscosity and moisture. The results show the oil viscosity can be found from the relationship μ = 42.086/√EE and moisture from (PLUS+) = −15.65 (PPM) + 26040 relationship.

Keywords: oil, viscosity, moisture, ultrasonic waves

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Authors: A. Augustyn, M. Florek, M. Herezniak

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Since the public authorities are constantly pressured by the public opinion to showcase the tangible and measurable results of their efforts, the evaluation of place brand-related activities becomes a necessity. Given the political and social character of place branding process, the legitimization of the branding efforts requires the compliance of the objectives set out in the city brand strategy with the actual needs, expectations, and aspirations of various internal stakeholders. To deliver on the diverse promises, city authorities and brand managers need to translate them into the measurable indicators against which the brand strategy effectiveness will be evaluated. In concert with these observations are the findings from branding and marketing literature with a widespread consensus that places should adopt a more systematic and holistic approach in order to ensure the performance of their brands. However, the measurement of the effectiveness of place branding remains insufficiently explored in theory, even though it is considered a significant step in the process of place brand management. Therefore, the aim of the research presented in the current paper was to collect insights on the nature of effectiveness measurement of city brand strategies and to juxtapose these findings with the theoretical assumptions formed on the basis of the state-of-the-art literature review. To this end, 15 international academic experts (out of 18 initially selected) with affiliation from ten countries (five continents), were individually interviewed. The standardized set of 19 open-ended questions was used for all the interviewees, who had been selected based on their expertise and reputation in the fields of place branding/marketing. Findings were categorized into four modules: (i) conceptualizations of city brand effectiveness, (ii) methodological issues of city brand effectiveness measurement, (iii) the nature of measurement process, (iv) articulation of key performance indicators (KPIs). Within each module, the interviewees offered diverse insights into the subject based on their academic expertise and professional activity as consultants. They proposed that there should be a twofold understanding of effectiveness. The narrow one when it is conceived as the aptitude to achieve specific goals, and the broad one in which city brand effectiveness is seen as an increase in social and economic reality of a place, which in turn poses diverse challenges for the measurement concepts and processes. Moreover, the respondents offered a variety of insights into the methodological issues, particularly about the need for customization and flexibility of the measurement systems, for the employment of interdisciplinary approach to measurement and implications resulting therefrom. Considerable emphasis was put on the inward approach to measurement, namely the necessity to monitor the resident’s evaluation of brand related activities instead of benchmarking cities against the competitive set. Other findings encompass the issues of developing appropriate KPIs for the city brand, managing the measurement process and the inclusion of diverse stakeholders to produce a sound measurement system. Furthermore, the interviewees enumerated the most frequently made mistakes in measurement mainly resulting from the misunderstanding of the nature of city brands. This research was financed by the National Science Centre, Poland, research project no. 2015/19/B/HS4/00380 Towards the categorization of place brand strategy effectiveness indicators – findings from strategic documents of Polish district cities – theoretical and empirical approach.

Keywords: city branding, effectiveness, experts’ insights, measurement

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Authors: Pilar Rey del Castillo

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This document describes the building of an average indicator of the general sentiments about the future exposed in the newspapers in Spain. The raw data are collected through the scraping of the Digital Periodical and Newspaper Library website. Basic tools of natural language processing are later applied to the collected information to evaluate the sentiment strength of each word in the texts using a polarized dictionary. The last step consists of summarizing these sentiments to produce daily indices. The results are a first insight into the applicability of these techniques to produce periodic sentiment indicators.

Keywords: natural language processing, periodic indicator, sentiment analysis, web scraping

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Authors: Magdy Torab

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Ancient Egyptians built their temples purposefully close to the River Nile to use it for transporting construction stones from far away quarries to building sites in river-boats. Most temples, therefore, have river-harbors associated with their geometric designs. The paleoriver channel remapped by using this idea, besides other geomorphological and geoarchaeological indicators/evidence located between Aswan and Luxor cities. In this sense, this paper defines the characteristics of this ancient course and its associated landforms using paleochannel morphology, paleomeandering, and ancient river dynamics during historic and prehistoric times. Both geomorphological and geoarchaeological approaches used to reconstruct the paleomorphology of the river course. It helps to investigate the ancient river morphology by using the following techniques: comparison and interpretation of multi dates satellite images and historical maps between 1943 and 2004. The results illustrated on maps using GIS (ARC GIS V.10 software) and the field data collected from the western bank of The Nile River at Luxor area and Karnak, Edfu, Esna and Kom Ombo temples. Created both current and paleogeomorphological maps depending upon the results of geoarchaeological surveying and soil analysis and dating, for surface and subsurface soil sampling by handle auger, laser diffraction analysis for 7 soil samples collected from some mounds and Malkata channel in the western bank of The Nile River near Luxor. Paleo-current directions were determined by using standard Brunton compass to use it as an indicator is evidence for the direction of flow of The Nile River during deposition of some accumulated mounds on the western part of the floodplain near Luxor city. C-14 dating was used for two samples collected from these mounds as well as geographical information system (GIS) technique for mapping. The geomorphological and geoarchaeological evidence shows that the Nile River course in Luxor area was around 4.5 km wide and contained many islands and sandbars which separated inside the river channel, now appearing as scattered mounds inside the floodplain. Upper Egypt has migrated during the historic times to the east up to five kilometers and become far away from the ancient temples, quarries, and harbors. It has also become as well as become more meandering and narrower than before.

Keywords: Nile River, ancient harbours, Luxor, paleogeomorphology, geoarchaeology

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Authors: Rachel Koshy, Nazrila Hairizan Bt. Nasir, Samsiah Bt. Awang, Kamaliah Bt. Mohamad Noh

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Malaysia collaborated as a ‘trailblazer’ country with PHCPI (Primary Health Care Performance Initiative) to populate the Primary Health Care (PHC) Vital Signs Profile (VSP) for the country. The PHC VSP provides an innovative snapshot of the primary health care system's performance. Four domains were assessed: system financing, system capacity, system performance, and system equity, and completed in 2019. There were two phases using a mixed method study design. The first phase involved a quantitative study, utilising existing secondary data from national and international sources. In the case of unavailability of data for any indicators, comparable alternative indicators were used. The second phase was a mixed quantitative-qualitative approach to measure the functional capacity based on governance and leadership, population health needs, inputs, population health management, and facility organisation and management. PHC spending constituted 35% of overall health spending in Malaysia, with a per capita PHC spending of $152. The capacity domain was strong in the three subdomains of governance and leadership, information system, and funds management. The two subdomains of drugs & supplies and facility organisation & management had low scores, but the lowest score was in empanelment of the population under the population health management. The PHC system performed with an access index of 98%, quality index of 84%, and service coverage of 62%. In the equity domain, there was little fluctuation in the coverage of reproductive, maternal, newborn, and child health services by mother’s level of education and under-five child mortality between urban and rural areas. The public sector was stronger in the capacity domain as compared to the private sector. This is due to the different financing, organisational structures, and service delivery mechanism. The VSP has identified areas for improvement in the effort to provide high-quality PHC for the population. The gaps in PHC can be addressed through the system approach and the positioning of public and private primary health care delivery systems.

Keywords: primary health care, health system, system domains, vital signs profile

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Authors: Valerie Follonier, Henrike Hamelmann, Jean-Michel Jullien

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The Distance Learning University in Switzerland (UniDistance) is offering bachelor and master courses as well as further education programs. The professors and their assistants work at traditional Swiss universities and are giving their courses at UniDistance following a blended learning and flipped classroom approach. A standardized course evaluation by the students has been established as a component of a quality improvement process. The students’ feedback enables the stakeholders to identify areas of improvement, initiate professional development for the teaching teams and thus continuously augment the quality of instruction. This paper describes the evaluation process, the tools involved and how the approach involving all stakeholders helps forming a culture of quality in teaching. Additionally, it will present the first evaluation results following the new process. Two software tools have been developed to support all stakeholders in the process of the semi-annual formative evaluation. The first tool allows to create the survey and to assign it to the relevant courses and students. The second tool presents the results of the evaluation to the stakeholders, providing specific features for the teaching teams, the dean, the directorate and EDUDL+ (Educational development unit distance learning). The survey items were selected in accordance with the e-learning strategy of the institution and are formulated to support the professional development of the teaching teams. By reviewing the results the teaching teams become aware of the opinion of the students and are asked to write a feedback for the attention of their dean. The dean reviews the results of the faculty and writes a general report about the situation of the faculty and the possible improvements intended. Finally, EDUDL+ writes a final report summarising the evaluation results. A mechanism of adjustable warnings allows it to generate quality indicators for each module. These are summarised for each faculty and globally for the whole institution in order to increase the vigilance of the responsible. The quality process involves changing the indicators regularly to focus on different areas each semester, to facilitate the professional development of the teaching teams and to progressively augment the overall teaching quality of the institution.

Keywords: continuous improvement process, course evaluation, distance learning, software tools, teaching quality

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Authors: Abderahman Efhialelbum

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The period since the fall of the Berlin Wall on November 9, 1989, and the collapse of the former Soviet Union in December 1985 has seen a major change in the economies and labour markets of Eastern Europe. The events also had reverberating effects across Asia and South America and parts of Africa, including Libya. This article examines the typologies and the models of transition economies. Also, it sheds light on the Libyan transition in particular and the impact of Qadhafi’s regime on the transition process. Finally, it illustrates how the Libyan transition process followed the trajectory of other countries using economic indicators such as free trade, property rights, and inflation.

Keywords: transition, economy, typology, model, Libya

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Authors: Laura Rodríguez Amaya

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The impact of natural disasters on food security can be devastating, especially in rural settings where livelihoods are closely tied to their productive assets. In hazards studies, absorptive capacity is seen as a threshold that impacts the degree of people’s recovery after a natural disaster. Increasing our understanding of households’ capacity to absorb natural disaster shocks can provide the international community with viable measurements for assessing at-risk communities’ resilience to food insecurities. The purpose of this study is to identify the most important factors in determining a household’s capacity to absorb the impact of a natural disaster. This is an empirical study conducted in six communities in Costa Rica affected by earthquakes. The Earthquake Impact Index was developed for the selection of the communities in this study. The households coded as total loss in the selected communities constituted the sampling frame from which the sample population was drawn. Because of the study area geographically dispersion over a large surface, the stratified clustered sampling hybrid technique was selected. Of the 302 households identified as total loss in the six communities, a total of 126 households were surveyed, constituting 42 percent of the sampling frame. A list of indicators compiled based on theoretical and exploratory grounds for the absorptive capacity construct served to guide the survey development. These indicators were included in the following variables: (1) use of informal safety nets, (2) Coping Strategy, (3) Physical Connectivity, and (4) Infrastructure Damage. A multivariate data analysis was conducted using Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS). The results show that informal safety nets such as family and friends assistance exerted the greatest influence on the ability of households to absorb the impact of earthquakes. In conclusion, communities that experienced the highest environmental impact and human loss got disconnected from the social networks needed to absorb the shock’s impact. This resulted in higher levels of household food insecurity.

Keywords: absorptive capacity, earthquake, food security, rural

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Authors: Hannah Rosenqvist, Fanny Guay

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Critical infrastructure protection has been an important topic for several years. Programmes such as the European Programme for Critical Infrastructure Protection (EPCIP), Critical Infrastructure Warning Information Network (CIWIN) and the European Reference Network for Critical Infrastructure Protection (ENR-CIP) have been the pillars to the work done since 2006. However, measuring critical infrastructure resilience has not been an easy task. This has to do with the fact that the concept of resilience has several definitions and is applied in different domains such as engineering and social sciences. Since June 2015, the EU project IMPROVER has been focusing on developing a methodology for implementing a combination of societal, organizational and technological resilience concepts, in the hope to increase critical infrastructure resilience. For this paper, we performed research on how to include societal resilience as a form of measurement of the context of critical infrastructure resilience. Because one of the main purposes of critical infrastructure (CI) is to deliver services to the society, we believe that societal resilience is an important factor that should be considered when assessing the overall CI resilience. We found that existing methods for CI resilience assessment focus mainly on technical aspects and therefore that is was necessary to develop a resilience model that take social factors into account. The model developed within the project IMPROVER aims to include the community’s expectations of infrastructure operators as well as information sharing with the public and planning processes. By considering such aspects, the IMPROVER framework not only helps operators to increase the resilience of their infrastructures on the technical or organizational side, but aims to strengthen community resilience as a whole. This will further be achieved by taking interdependencies between critical infrastructures into consideration. The knowledge gained during this project will enrich current European policies and practices for improved disaster risk management. The framework for societal resilience analysis is based on three dimensions for societal resilience; coping capacity, adaptive capacity and transformative capacity which are capacities that have been recognized throughout a widespread literature review in the field. A set of indicators have been defined that describe a community’s maturity within these resilience dimensions. Further, the indicators are categorized into six community assets that need to be accessible and utilized in such a way that they allow responding to changes and unforeseen circumstances. We conclude that the societal resilience model developed within the project IMPROVER can give a good indication of the level of societal resilience to critical infrastructure operators.

Keywords: community resilience, critical infrastructure protection, critical infrastructure resilience, societal resilience

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Authors: Dawd Ahmed, Venkatesh Uddameri

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Agriculture in Ethiopia is the main economic sector influenced by agricultural drought. A simultaneous assessment of drought trends using multiple drought indicators is useful for drought planning and management. Intra-season and seasonal drought trends in Ethiopia were studied using a suite of drought indicators. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), and Z-index for long-rainy, dry, and short-rainy seasons are used to identify drought-causing mechanisms. The Statistical software package R version 3.5.2 was used for data extraction and data analyses. Trend analysis indicated shifts in late-season long-rainy season precipitation into dry in the southwest and south-central portions of Ethiopia. Droughts during the dry season (October–January) were largely temperature controlled. Short-term temperature-controlled hydrologic processes exacerbated rainfall deficits during the short rainy season (February–May) and highlight the importance of temperature- and hydrology-induced soil dryness on the production of short-season crops such as tef. Droughts during the long-rainy season (June–September) were largely driven by precipitation declines arising from the narrowing of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). Increased dryness during long-rainy season had severe consequences on the production of corn and sorghum. PDSI was an aggressive indicator of seasonal droughts suggesting the low natural resilience to combat the effects of slow-acting, moisture-depleting hydrologic processes. The lack of irrigation systems in the nation limits the ability to combat droughts and improve agricultural resilience. There is an urgent need to monitor soil moisture (a key agro-hydrologic variable) to better quantify the impacts of meteorological droughts on agricultural systems in Ethiopia.

Keywords: autocorrelation, climate change, droughts, Ethiopia, food security, palmer z-index, PDSI, SPEI, SPI, trend analysis

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Authors: Radyah Ivan, Khanferyan Roman

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Milk and dairy products are an important component of a balanced diet. Dairy products represent a heterogeneous food group of solid, semi-solid and liquid, fermented or non-fermented foods, each differing in nutrients such as fat and micronutrient content. Deficiency of milk and dairy products contributes a impact on the main health parameters of the various age groups of the population. The goal of this study was to analyze of the frequency of the consumption of milk and various groups of dairy products by students and its association with their body mass index (BMI), body composition and other physiological parameters. 388 full-time students of the Medical Institute of RUDN University (185 male and 203 female, average age was 20.4+2.2 and 21.9+1.7 y.o., respectively) took part in the cross-sectional study. Anthropometric measurements, estimation of BMI and body composition were analyzed by bioelectrical impedance analysis. The frequency of consumption of the milk and various groups of dairy products was studied using a modified questionnaire on the frequency of consumption of products. Due to the questionnaire data on the frequency of consumption of the diary products, it have been demonstrated that only 11% of respondents consume milk daily, 5% - cottage cheese, 4% and 1% - fermented natural and with fillers milk products, respectively, hard cheese -4%. The study demonstrated that about 16% of the respondents did not consume milk at all over the past month, about one third - cottage cheese, 22% - natural sour-milk products and 18% - sour-milk products with various fillers. hard cheeses and pickled cheeses didn’t consume 9% and 26% of respondents, respectively. We demonstrated the gender differences in the characteristics of consumer preferences were revealed. Thus female students are less likely to use cream, sour cream, soft cheese, milk comparing to male students. Among female students the prevalence of persons with overweight was higher (25%) than among male students (19%). A modest inverse relationship was demonstrated between daily milk intake, BMI, body composition parameters and diary products consumption (r=-0.61 and r=-0.65). The study showed daily insufficient milk and dairy products consumption by students and due to this it have been demonstrated the relationship between the low and rare consumption of diary products and main parameters of indicators of physical activity and health indicators.

Keywords: frequency of consumption, milk, dairy products, physical development, nutrition, body mass index.

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Authors: Ram Chandra Sah

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Few years back, naturally a very beautiful country Nepal was facing a lot of problems related to the practice of open defecation (having no toilet) by almost 98% people of the country. Now, the scenario is changed. Government of Nepal set the target of achieving the situation of basic level sanitation (toilets) facilities by 2017 AD for which the Sanitation and Hygiene Master Plan (SHMP) was brought in 2011 AD with the major beauty as institutional set up formation, local formal authority leadership, locally formulated strategic plan; partnership, harmonized and coordinated approach to working; no subsidy or support at a blanket level, community and local institutions or organizations mobilization approaches. Now, the Open Defecation Free (ODF) movement in the country is at a full swing. The Sanitation and Hygiene Master Plan (SHMP) has clearly defined Total Sanitation which is accepted to be achieved if all the households of the related boundary have achieved the 6 indicators such as the access and regular use of toilet(s), regular use of soap and water at the critical moments, regular practice of use of food hygiene behavior, regular practice of use of water hygiene behavior including household level purification of locally available drinking water, maintenance of regular personal hygiene with household level waste management and the availability of the state of overall clean environment at the concerned level of boundary. Nepal has 3158 Village Development Committees (VDC's) in the rural areas. Amarapuri VDC was selected for the purpose of achieving Total Sanitation. Based on the SHMP; different methodologies such as updating of Village Water Sanitation and Hygiene Coordination Committee (V-WASH-CC), Total Sanitation team formation including one volunteer for each indicator, campaigning through settlement meetings, midterm evaluation which revealed the need of ward level 45 (5 for all 9 wards) additional volunteers, ward wise awareness creation with the help of the volunteers, informative notice boards and hoarding boards with related messages at important locations, management of separate waste disposal rings for decomposable and non-decomposable wastes, related messages dissemination through different types of local cultural programs, public toilets construction and management by community level; mobilization of local schools, offices and health posts; reward and recognition to contributors etc. were adopted for achieving 100 % coverage of each indicator. The VDC was in a very worse situation in 2010 with just 50, 30, 60, 60, 40, 30 percent coverage of the respective indicators and became the first VDC of the country declared with Total Sanitation. The expected result of 100 percent coverage of all the indicators was achieved in 2 years 10 months and 19 days. Experiences of Amarapuri were replicated successfully in different parts of the country and many VDC's have been declared with the achievement of Total Sanitation. Thus, Community Mobilized Total Sanitation Movement in Nepal has supported a lot for achieving a Total Sanitation situation of the country with a minimal cost and it is believed that the approach can be very useful for other developing or under developed countries of the world.

Keywords: community mobilized, open defecation free, sanitation and hygiene master plan, total sanitation

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Authors: Frazer G. Thompson

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The 1990s in America ended with a mass-school-shooting (at least four killed by gunfire excluding the perpetrator(s)) at Columbine High School in Littleton, Colorado. Post-event, many demanded that government and civilian experts develop a ‘profile’ of the potential school shooter in order to identify and preempt likely future acts of violence. This grounded theory research study seeks to explore the validity of the original hypotheses proposed by the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) in 2000, as it relates to the commonality of disclosure by perpetrators of mass-school-shootings, by evaluating fourteen mass-school-shooting events between 2000 and 2019 at locations around the United States. Methods: The strategy of inquiry seeks to investigate case files, public records, witness accounts, and available psychological profiles of the shooter. The research methodology is inclusive of one-on-one interviews with members of the FBI’s Critical Incident Response Group seeking perspective on commonalities between individuals; specifically, disclosure of intent pre-event. Results: The research determined that school shooters do not ‘unfailingly’ notify others of their plans. However, in nine of the fourteen mass-school-shooting events analyzed, the perpetrator did inform the third party of their intent pre-event in some form of written, oral, or electronic communication. In the remaining five instances, the so-called ‘red-flag’ indicators of the potential for an event to occur were profound, and unto themselves, might be interpreted as notification to others of an imminent deadly threat. Conclusion: Data indicates that conclusions drawn in the FBI’s threat assessment perspective published in 2000 are relevant and current. There is evidence that despite potential ‘red-flag’ indicators which may or may not include a variety of other characteristics, perpetrators of mass-school-shooting events are likely to share their intentions with others through some form of direct or indirect communication. More significantly, implications of this research might suggest that society is often informed of potential danger pre-event but lacks any equitable means by which to disseminate, prevent, intervene, or otherwise act in a meaningful way considering said revelation.

Keywords: columbine, FBI profiling, guns, mass shooting, mental health, school violence

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Authors: Roselyn Alejandro-Ymana

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The study was an attempt to assess the MTAP Saturday Class Program along its eight components namely, modules, instructional materials, scheduling, trainer-teachers, supervisory support, administrative support, financial support and educational facilities, the results of which served as bases in developing policy guidelines to enhance the MTAP Saturday Class Program. Using a descriptive development method of research, this study involved the participation of twenty-eight (28) schools with MTAP Saturday Class Program in the Division of Dasmarinas City where twenty-eight school heads, one hundred twenty-five (125) teacher-trainer, one hundred twenty-five (125) pupil program participants, and their corresponding one hundred twenty-five (125) parents were purposively drawn to constitute the study’s respondent. A self-made validated survey questionnaire together with Pre and Post-Test Assessment Test in Mathematics for pupils participating in the program, and an unstructured interview guide was used to gather the data needed in the study. Data obtained from the instruments administered was organized and analyzed through the use of statistical tools that included the Mean, Weighted Mean, Relative Frequency, Standard Deviation, F-Test or One-Way ANOVA and the T-Test. Results of the study revealed that all the eight domains involved in the MTAP Saturday Class Program were practiced with the areas of 'trainer-teachers', 'educational facilities', and 'supervisory support' identified as the program’s strongest components while the areas of 'financial support', 'modules' and 'scheduling' as being the weakest program’s components. Moreover, the study revealed based on F-Test, that there was a significant difference in the assessment made by the respondents in each of the eight (8) domains. It was found out that the parents deviated significantly from the assessment of either the school heads or the teachers on the indicators of the program. There is much to be desired when it comes to the quality of the implementation of the MTAP Saturday Class Program. With most of the indicators of each component of the program, having received overall average ratings that were at least 0.5 point away from the ideal rating 5 for total quality, school heads, teachers, and supervisors need to work harder for total quality of the implementation of the MTAP Saturday Class Program in the division.

Keywords: mathematics achievement, MTAP program, policy guidelines, program assessment

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Authors: Maryam Gallab, Hafida Bouloiz, Youness Chater, Mohamed Tkiouat

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The aim of this paper is to present a model based on multi-agent systems in order to manage the maintenance activities and to ensure the reliability and availability of machines just with the required resources (operators, tools). The interest of the simulation is to solve the complexity of the system and to find results without cost or wasting time. An implementation of the model is carried out on the AnyLogic platform to display the defined performance indicators.

Keywords: maintenance, complexity, simulation, multi-agent systems, AnyLogic platform

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Authors: Remy Kulagowski, Tobias Sturm, Audrey Leopold, Aurelie Metay, Josephine Peigne, Alexis Thoumazeau, Alain Brauman, Bruno Fogliani, Florent Tivet

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A major challenge for agriculture is to enhance productivity while limiting the impact on the environment. Conservation agriculture (CA) is one strategy whereby both sustainability and productivity can be achieved by preserving and improving the soil quality. Soils provide and regulate a large number of ecosystem services (ES) such as agricultural productivity and climate change adaptation and mitigation. The aim of this study is to assess the impacts of contrasted CA crop management on soil functions for maize (Zea mays L.) cultivation in an eight years field experiment (2010-2018). The study included two CA practices: direct seeding in dead mulch (DM) and living mulch (LM), and conventional plough-based tillage (CT) practices on a fluvisol in New Caledonia (French Archipelago in the South Pacific). In 2018, soil quality of the cropping systems were evaluated with the Biofunctool® set of indicators, that consists in twelve integrative, in-field, and low-tech indicators assessing the biological, physical and chemical properties of soils. Main soil functions were evaluated including (i) carbon transformation, (ii) structure maintenance, and (iii) nutrient cycling in the ten first soil centimeters. The results showed significant higher score for soil structure maintenance (e.g., aggregate stability, water infiltration) and carbon transformation function (e.g., soil respiration, labile carbon) under CA in DM and LM when compared with CT. Score of carbon transformation index was higher in DM compared with LM. However, no significant effect of cropping systems was observed on nutrient cycling (i.e., nitrogen and phosphorus). In conclusion, the aggregated synthetic scores of soil multi-functions evaluated with Biofunctool® demonstrate that CA cropping systems lead to a better soil functioning. Further analysis of the results with agronomic performance of the soil-crop systems would allow to better understand the links between soil functioning and production ES of CA.

Keywords: conservation agriculture, cropping systems, ecosystem services, soil functions

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Authors: Allyson Dale, Max Hlywa

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The Canadian public expects the highest moral standards from Canadian Armed Forces (CAF) members and Department of National Defence (DND) employees. The Chief, Professional Conduct and Culture (CPCC) stood up in April 2021 with the mission of ensuring that the defence culture and members’ conduct are aligned with the ethical principles and values that the organization aspires towards. The Defence Ethics Program (DEP), which stood up in 1997, is a values-based ethics program for individuals and organizations within the DND/CAF and now falls under CPCC. The DEP is divided into five key functional areas, including policy, communications, collaboration, training and education, and advice and guidance. The main focus of the DEP is to foster an ethical culture within defence so that members and organizations perform to the highest ethical standards. The measurement of organizational ethics is often complex and challenging. In order to monitor whether the DEP is achieving its intended outcomes, a performance measurement framework (PMF) was developed using the Director General Military Personnel Research and Analysis (DGMPRA) PMF development process. This evidence-based process is based on subject-matter expertise from the defence team. The goal of this presentation is to describe each stage of the DGMPRA PMF development process and to present and discuss the products of the DEP PMF (e.g., logic model). Specifically, first, a strategic framework was developed to provide a high-level overview of the strategic objectives, mission, and vision of the DEP. Next, Key Performance Questions were created based on the objectives in the strategic framework. A logic model detailing the activities, outputs (what is produced by the program activities), and intended outcomes of the program were developed to demonstrate how the program works. Finally, Key Performance Indicators were developed based on both the intended outcomes in the logic model and the Key Performance Questions in order to monitor program effectiveness. The Key Performance Indicators measure aspects of organizational ethics such as ethical conduct and decision-making, DEP collaborations, and knowledge and awareness of the Defence Ethics Code while leveraging ethics-related items from multiple DGMPRA surveys where appropriate.

Keywords: defence ethics, ethical culture, organizational performance, performance measurement framework

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Authors: Majid Afkhami, Maryam Ehsanpour, Reza Khoshnood, Zahra Khoshnood, Rastin Afkhami

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Marine pollution is a global environmental problem. Different human activities on land, in the water and in the air contribute to the contamination of seawater, sediments and organisms with potentially toxic substances. Contaminants can be natural substances or artificially produced compounds. After discharge into the sea, contaminants can stay in the water in dissolved form or they can be removed from the water column through sedimentation to the bottom sediments. Histopathological alterations can be used as indicators for the effects of various anthropogenic pollutants on organisms and are a reflection of the overall health of the entire population in the ecosystem. These histo pathological biomarkers are closely related to other biomarkers of stress since many pollutants have to undergo metabolic activation in order to be able to provoke cellular change in the affected organism. In order to make evaluation of the effects of oil pollution, some heavy metals bioaccumulation and explore their histopathological effects on hepatocytes of Oriental sole (Euryglossa orientalis) and Deep flounder (Psettodes erumei), fishes caught from two areas of north coast of the Persian Gulf: Bandar Abbass and Bandar Lengeh. Concentrations of Ni and V in liver of both species in two sampling regions were in following order: Bandar abbass Bandar lengeh; also between two species, these quantities were higher in P. erumei than E. orientalis in both sampling regions. Histopathology of the liver shows some cellular alterations including: degeneration, necrosis and tissue disruption, and histopathological effects were severe in P. erumei than E. orientalis. Results showed that Bandar Abbass region was more polluted than Bandar Lengeh, and because Ni and V were oil pollution indicators, and two flat fishes were benthic, they can receive considerable amount of oil pollution through their biological activities like feeding. Also higher amounts of heavy metal concentrations and major histopathological effects in E. orientalis showed strong relationship between benthic habitat of the fish and amounts of received pollutants from water and sediments, because E. orientalis is more related to the bottom than P. erumei.

Keywords: heavy metals, flatfishes, Persian Gulf, oil pollution

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Authors: Alfredo Fortunato, Carmelofrancesco Origlia, Sara Laurita, Rossella Nicoletti

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In the post-pandemic recovery phase of tourism, the role of a Destination Management Organization (DMO) as a coordinated management system of all the elements that make up a destination (attractions, access, marketing, human resources, brand, pricing, etc.) is also becoming relevant for local territories. The objective of a DMO is to maximize the visitor's perception of value and quality while ensuring the competitiveness and sustainability of the destination, as well as the long-term preservation of its natural and cultural assets, and to catalyze benefits for the local economy and residents. In carrying out the multiple functions to which it is called, the DMO can leverage a collective intelligence that comes from the ability to pool information, explicit and tacit knowledge, and relationships of the various stakeholders: policymakers, public managers and officials, entrepreneurs in the tourism supply chain, researchers, data journalists, schools, associations and committees, citizens, etc. The DMO potentially has at its disposal large volumes of data and many of them at low cost, that need to be properly processed to produce value. Based on these assumptions, the paper presents a conceptual framework for building an information system to support the DMO in the intelligent management of a tourist destination tested in an area of southern Italy. The approach adopted is data-informed and consists of four phases: (1) formulation of the knowledge problem (analysis of policy documents and industry reports; focus groups and co-design with stakeholders; definition of information needs and key questions); (2) research and metadatation of relevant sources (reconnaissance of official sources, administrative archives and internal DMO sources); (3) gap analysis and identification of unconventional information sources (evaluation of traditional sources with respect to the level of consistency with information needs, the freshness of information and granularity of data; enrichment of the information base by identifying and studying web sources such as Wikipedia, Google Trends, Booking.com, Tripadvisor, websites of accommodation facilities and online newspapers); (4) definition of the set of indicators and construction of the information base (specific definition of indicators and procedures for data acquisition, transformation, and analysis). The framework derived consists of 6 thematic areas (accommodation supply, cultural heritage, flows, value, sustainability, and enabling factors), each of which is divided into three domains that gather a specific information need to be represented by a scheme of questions to be answered through the analysis of available indicators. The framework is characterized by a high degree of flexibility in the European context, given that it can be customized for each destination by adapting the part related to internal sources. Application to the case study led to the creation of a decision support system that allows: •integration of data from heterogeneous sources, including through the execution of automated web crawling procedures for data ingestion of social and web information; •reading and interpretation of data and metadata through guided navigation paths in the key of digital story-telling; •implementation of complex analysis capabilities through the use of data mining algorithms such as for the prediction of tourist flows.

Keywords: collective intelligence, data framework, destination management, smart tourism

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