Search results for: concentration risk

Authors: Chloe E. Edwards, Yasaman Shahtaheri

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Risk management plays a fundamental role in project planning and delivery. The purpose of incorporating risk management into project management practices is to identify and address uncertainties related to key project-related activities. The uncertainties, known as risk events, can relate to project deliverables that are quantifiable and are often measured by impact to project schedule, cost, or environmental impact. Risk management should be incorporated as an iterative practice throughout the planning, execution, and commissioning phases of a project. This paper specifically examines how risk management contributes to effective project planning and delivery through a case study of a transportation project. This case study focused solely on impacts to project schedule regarding three milestones: readiness for delivery, readiness for testing and commissioning, and completion of the facility. The case study followed the ISO 31000: Risk Management – Guidelines. The key factors that are outlined by these guidelines include understanding the scope and context of the project, conducting a risk assessment including identification, analysis, and evaluation, and lastly, risk treatment through mitigation measures. This process requires continuous consultation with subject matter experts and monitoring to iteratively update the risks accordingly. The risk identification process led to a total of fourteen risks related to design, permitting, construction, and commissioning. The analysis involved running 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations through @RISK 8.0 Industrial software to determine potential milestone completion dates based on the project baseline schedule. These dates include the best case, most likely case, and worst case to provide an estimated delay for each milestone. Evaluation of these results provided insight into which risks were the highest contributors to the projected milestone completion dates. Based on the analysis results, the risk management team was able to provide recommendations for mitigation measures to reduce the likelihood of risks occurring. The risk management team also provided recommendations for managing the identified risks and project activities moving forward to meet the most likely or best-case milestone completion dates.

Keywords: construction management, monte carlo simulation, project delivery, risk assessment, transportation engineering

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Authors: Swathi Sampath, V. Kalaichelvi

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The assessment of the risk posed by a borrower to a lender is one of the common problems that financial institutions have to deal with. Consumers vying for a mortgage are generally compared to each other by the use of a number called the Credit Score, which is generated by applying a mathematical algorithm to information in the applicant’s credit report. The higher the credit score, the lower the risk posed by the candidate, and the better he is to be taken on by the lender. The objective of the present work is to use fuzzy logic and linguistic rules to create a model that generates Credit Scores.

Keywords: credit scoring, fuzzy logic, mortgage, risk assessment

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Authors: Eyyüp Murat Karakurt, Yan Huang, Mehmet Kaya, Hüseyin Demirtaş, Alper İncesu

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In this study, Ti-(x) Nb (at. %) master alloys (x:10, 20, and 30) were fabricated following a standard powder metallurgy route and were sintered at 1200 ˚C for 6h, under 300 MPa by powder metallurgy method. The effect of the Nb concentration in Ti matrix and porosity level was examined experimentally. For metallographic examination, the alloys were analysed by optical microscopy and energy dispersive spectrometry analysis. In addition, X-ray diffraction was performed on the alloys to determine which compound formed in the microstructure. The compression test was applied to the alloys to understand the mechanical behaviors of the alloys. According to Nb concentration in Ti matrix, the β phase increased. Also, porosity level played a crucial role on the mechanical performance of the alloys.

Keywords: Nb concentration, porosity level, powder metallurgy, The β phase

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Authors: Mustafa Dogru, Ruveyda Komurlu

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Companies and professionals in the construction sector face various risks in every project depending on the characteristics, size, complexity, the location of the projects and the techniques used. Some risks’ effects may increase as the project progresses whereas new risks may emerge. Because of the ever-changing nature of the risks, risk management is a cyclical process that needs to be repeated throughout the project. Since the risks threaten the success of the project, risk management is an important part of the entire project management process. The aims of this study are to emphasize the importance of risk management in construction projects, summarize the risk identification process, and introduce a number of methods for preventing risks such as alternative design, checklists, prototyping and test-analysis-correction technique etc. Following the literature review conducted to list the techniques for preventing risks, case studies has been performed to compare and evaluate the success of the techniques in a number of completed projects with the same typology, performed domestic and international. Findings of the study suggest that controlling and minimizing the level of the risks in construction projects, taking optimal precautions for different risks, and mitigating or eliminating the effects of risks are important in order to prevent additional costs for the project. Additionally, focusing on the risks that have highest impact is the most rational way to minimize the effects of the risks on projects.

Keywords: construction projects, construction management, project management, risk management

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Authors: Carolina Guatemala, Josefina Barrera

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A large number of soils highly polluted with recalcitrant hydrocarbons and the limitation of the current bioremediation methods continue being the drawback for an efficient recuperation of these under safe conditions. In this regard, soil washing by degradable surfactants is an alternative option knowing the capacity of surfactants to desorb oily organic compounds. The aim of this study was the establishment of the washing conditions of a soil polluted with diesel, using a nonionic surfactant. A soil polluted with diesel was used. This was collected near to a polluted railway station zone. The soil was dried at room temperature and sieved to a mesh size 10 for its physicochemical and biological characterization. Washing of the polluted soil was performed with surfactant solutions in a 1:5 ratio (5g of soil per 25 mL of the surfactant solution). This was carried out at 28±1 °C and 150 rpm for 72 hours. The factors tested were the Tween 80 surfactant concentration (1, 2, 5 and 10%) and the treatment time. Residual diesel concentration was determined every 24 h. The soil was of a sandy loam texture with a low concentration of organic matter (3.68%) and conductivity (0.016 dS.m- 1). The soil had a pH of 7.63 which was slightly alkaline and a Total Petroleum Hydrocarbon content (TPH) of 11,600 ± 1058.38 mg/kg. The high TPH content could explain the low microbial count of 1.1105 determined as UFC per gram of dried soil. Within the range of the surfactant concentration tested for washing the polluted soil under study, TPH removal increased proportionally with the surfactant concentration. 5080.8 ± 422.2 ppm (43.8 ± 3.64 %) was the maximal concentration of TPH removed after 72 h of contact with surfactant pollution at 10%. Despite the high percentage of hydrocarbons removed, it is assumed that a higher concentration of these could be removed if the washing process is extended or is carried out by stages. Soil washing through the use of surfactants as a desorbing agent was found to be a viable and effective technology for the rapid recovery of soils highly polluted with recalcitrant hydrocarbons.

Keywords: diesel, hydrocarbons, soil washing, tween 80

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Authors: P. Serpytis, K. Azukaitis, U. Gargalskaite, R. Navickas, J. Badariene, V. Dzenkeviciute

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Purpose: Total longitudinal displacement (tLoD) of the common carotid artery (CCA) wall is a novel ultrasound marker of vascular function that can be evaluated using modified speckle tracking techniques. Decreased CCA tLoD has already been shown to be associated with diabetes and was shown to predict one year cardiovascular outcome in patients with suspected coronary artery disease (CAD) . The aim of our study was to evaluate if CCA tLoD differ between patients with moderate or high cardiovascular (CV) risk and patients after recent acute myocardial infarction (AMI). Methods: 49 patients (54±6 years) with moderate or high CV risk and 42 patients (58±7 years) after recent AMI were included. All patients were non-diabetic. CCA tLoD was evaluated using GE EchoPAC speckle tracking software and expressed as mean of both sides. Data on systolic blood pressure, total and high density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol levels, high sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP) level, smoking status and family history of early CV events was evaluated and assessed for association with CCA tLoD. Results: tLoD of CCA did not differ between patients with moderate or high CV risk and patients with very high CV risk after MI (0.265±0.128 mm vs. 0.237±0.103 mm, p>0.05). Lower tLoD was associated with lower HDL cholesterol levels (r=0.211, p=0.04) and male sex (0.228±0.1 vs. 0.297±0.134, p=0.01). Conclusions: tLoD of CCA did not differ between patients with moderate or high CV risk and patients with very high CV risk after AMI. However, lower CCA tLoD was significantly associated with low HDL cholesterol levels and male sex.

Keywords: total longitudinal displacement, carotid artery, cardiovascular risk, acute myocardial infarction

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Authors: Bouba Oumarou Aboubakar, HongXia Li, Sardar Annes Farooq

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The Belt and Road Initiative’s success strongly depends on the safety of all the million workers on construction projects sites. As the new BRI is directed toward Africa and meets a completely different culture from the Chinese project managers, maintaining low risk for workers risks shall be closely related to cultural sharing and mutual understanding. This is why this work introduces a cultural-wise safety management framework for Chinese Construction projects in Africa. The theoretical contribution of this paper is an improved risk assessment framework that integrates language, culture and difficulty of controlling risk factors into one approach. Practically, this study provides not only a useful tool for project safety management practitioners but the full understanding of all risks that may arise in the BRI projects in Africa.

Keywords: cultural-wise, safety culture, risk assessment, Chinese construction, BRI projects, Africa

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Authors: Harun Rashid, Keerthi S. S. Atapaththu, Takashi Asaeda

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Cesium (Cs) induced growth and stress response of Nitella were studied after exposure to four concentration of the metal; i.e. 0 (control), 0.001, 0.01, and 0.1 ppm Cs in growth media. Each treatment with three replicates were randomly allocated to 12 glass beakers in a complete randomize design and the experiment was continued for 30 days. At the end of the experiment, shoot length, cesium content, total chlorophyll, and plant stress response were compared. Anti-oxidant enzyme activities (peroxidase, catalase, and ascorbic peroxidase) and the concentration of H2O2 were measured to check plant stress. The longest shoot was found in control treatment (0 ppm Cs) and the shoot length of plants exposed to 0.001 ppm was statistically similar to that of control. Concentration of cesium in plants grown at 0.001, 0.01, and 0.1 ppm were significantly higher than those in control treatments. The antioxidant enzymes activities of plants exposed to cesium were significantly higher than those grown without any Cs (control). An elevated level of H2O2 concentration was also observed in former groups of plants. Further, the reduction in chlorophyll concentration and chlorophyll fluorescence in response to cesium exposure indicated the chronically damaged photosynthetic efficiency in cesium stressed Nitella.

Keywords: antioxidant enzymes, cesium, growth, Nitella, oxidative stress

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Authors: H. Shiu, M.S. Lu, Y.P. Tsai

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This study explored the impacts of CuO, TiO2, SiO2 nanoparticles on biological phosphorus removal. Experimental results showed that the phosphorus removal ability of phosphorus accumulating organism (PAO) was initially inhibited when CuO nanoparticle concentration was 5 mgl-1. The inhibition of phosphorus removal for 1000 mgl-1 of TiO2 with sunlight was higher than without sunlight case. The inhibition of phosphorus removal began at 500 mgl-1 SiO2 nanoparticle concentration. Inhibition became apparent when SiO2 nanoparticle concentration was up to 1000 mgl-1.

Keywords: nano copper oxide, nano titanium dioxide, nano silica, enhanced biological phosphate removal

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Authors: Shobha U. Jadhav, R. S. Saler

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Onion is most Important Vegetable crop grown throughout the world. Onion suffers from pest and fungal diseases but the fungicides cause pollution and disturb microbial balance of soil. Under integrated fungal disease management programme cost effective and eco- friendly component like plant extract are used to control plant pathogens. Alternaria porri, Fusarium oxysporium, Stemphylium vesicarium are soil borne pathogens of onion. Effect of three different plant extract (Datura metel, Pongamia pinnata, Ipomoea palmata) at five different concentration Viz, 10,25,50,75 and 100 percentage on these pathogens was studied by food poisoning techniquie. Detura metal gave 94.73% growth of Alternaria porri at 10% extract concentraton and 26.31% growth in 100% extract concentration. As compared to Fusarium oxysporium, and Stemphylium vesicarium, Alternaria porri give good inhibitory response. In Pongamia pinnata L. at 10% extract concentration 84.21% growth and at 100% extract concentration 36.84% growth of Stemphylium vesicarium was observed. Stemphylium vesicarium give good in inhibitory response as compared to Alternaria porri and Fusarium oxysporium. Ipomoea palmata in 10% extract concentration 92% growth and in 100% extract concentration 40% growth of Fusarium oxysporium was recorded. Fusarium oxysporium give good inhibitory response as compared to Alternaria porri and, Stemphylium vesicarium.

Keywords: pathogen, onion, plant extract, Allium cepa L.

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Authors: Nabil Mekaoui, Nacer Jabour, Abdelhamid Allaoui, Abderahim Oulidi

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The reliability of several insurance indexes of the seismic risk is evaluated and compared for an efficient seismic risk coverage of buildings in Morocco, thus, reducing the basic risk. A large database of earthquake ground motions is established from recent seismic events in Morocco and synthetic ground motions compatible with the design spectrum in order to conduct nonlinear time history analyses on three building models representative of the building stock in Morocco. The uninhabitability index is evaluated based on the simulated damage index, then correlated with preselected insurance indexes. Interestingly, the commonly used peak ground acceleration index showed poor correlation when compared with other indexes, such as spectral accelerations at low periods. Recommendations on the choice of suitable insurance indexes are formulated for efficient seismic risk coverage in Morocco.

Keywords: catastrophe modeling, damage, earthquake, reinsurance, seismic hazard, trigger index, vulnerability

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Authors: Xiaodong Li, Peng Gao, Chao-Jung Huang, Shiying Hao, Xuefeng B. Ling, Yongxia Han, Yaqi Zhang, Le Zheng, Chengyin Ye, Modi Liu, Minjie Xia, Changlin Fu, Bo Jin, Karl G. Sylvester, Eric Widen

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Predicting the risk of Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma (PA) in advance can benefit the quality of care and potentially reduce population mortality and morbidity. The aim of this study was to develop and prospectively validate a risk prediction model to identify patients at risk of new incident PA as early as 3 months before the onset of PA in a statewide, general population in Maine. The PA prediction model was developed using Deep Neural Networks, a deep learning algorithm, with a 2-year electronic-health-record (EHR) cohort. Prospective results showed that our model identified 54.35% of all inpatient episodes of PA, and 91.20% of all PA that required subsequent chemoradiotherapy, with a lead-time of up to 3 months and a true alert of 67.62%. The risk assessment tool has attained an improved discriminative ability. It can be immediately deployed to the health system to provide automatic early warnings to adults at risk of PA. It has potential to identify personalized risk factors to facilitate customized PA interventions.

Keywords: cancer prediction, deep learning, electronic health records, pancreatic adenocarcinoma

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Authors: Masaru Sumida

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This study explored the feasibility of improving the hydraulic headbox of papermaking machines by studying the flow of wood-pulp suspensions behind a flat plate inserted in parallel and convergent channels. Pulp fiber concentrations of the wake downstream of the plate were investigated by flow visualization and optical measurements. Changes in the time-averaged and fluctuation of the fiber concentration along the flow direction were examined. In addition, the control of the flow characteristics in the two channels was investigated. The behaviors of the pulp fibers and the wake flow were found to be strongly related to the flow states in the upstream passages partitioned by the plate. The distribution of the fiber concentration was complex because of the formation of a thin water layer on the plate and the generation of Karman’s vortices at the trailing edge of the plate. Compared with the flow in the parallel channel, fluctuations in the fiber concentration decreased in the convergent channel. However, at low flow velocities, the convergent channel has a weak effect on equilibrating the time-averaged fiber concentration. This shows that a rectangular trailing edge cannot adequately disperse pulp suspensions; thus, at low flow velocities, a convergent channel is ineffective in ensuring uniform fiber concentration.

Keywords: fiber dispersion, headbox, pulp liquid, wake flow

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Authors: Dang HuynhMinhTam, Kuang-Cong Lu, Yi-Hung Chen, Zhung-Yu Lin, Cheng-Siang Cheng

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Carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) technology become a predominant technique to mitigate carbon dioxide and achieve net-zero emissions goals. This research targets to continuously capture the low concentration CO₂ from the tail gas of the regenerative thermal oxidizer (RTO) in the high technology industry. A rotating packed bed (RPB) reactor is investigated to capture the efficiency of CO₂ using a mixture of NaOH/Na₂CO₃ solutions to simulate the real absorbed solution. On a lab scale, semi-batch experiments of continuous gas flow and circulating absorbent solution are conducted to find the optimal parameters and are then examined in a continuous operation. In the semi-batch tests, the carbon capture efficiency and pH variation in the conditions of a low concentration CO₂ (about 1.13 vol%), the NaOH concentration of 1 wt% or 2 wt% mixed with 14 wt% Na₂CO₃, the rotating speed (600, 900, 1200 rpm), the gas-liquid ratio (100, 200, and 400), and the temperature of absorbent solution of 40 ºC are studied. The CO₂ capture efficiency significantly increases with higher rotating speed and smaller gas-liquid ratio, respectively, while the difference between the NaOH concentration of 1 wt% and 2 wt% is relatively small. The maximum capture efficiency is close to 80% in the conditions of the NaOH concentration of 1 wt%, the G/L ratio of 100, and the rotating speed of 1200 rpm within the first 5 minutes. Furthermore, the continuous operation based on similar conditions also demonstrates the steady efficiency of the carbon capture of around 80%.

Keywords: carbon dioxide capture, regenerative thermal oxidizer, rotating packed bed, sodium hydroxide

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Authors: Shingo Murakami, Shinichi Enoki

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In structures, stress concentration is a factor of fatigue fracture. Basically, the stress concentration is a phenomenon that should be avoided. However, it is difficult to avoid the stress concentration. Therefore, relaxation of the stress concentration is important. The stress concentration arises from notches and circular holes. There is a relaxation method that a composite patch covers a notch and a circular hole. This relaxation method is used to repair aerial wings, but it is not systematized. Composites are more expensive than single materials. Accordingly, we propose the relaxation method that a single material patch covers a notch and a circular hole, and aim to systematize this relaxation method. We performed FEA (Finite Element Analysis) about an object by using a three-dimensional FEA model. The object was that a patch adheres to a plate with a circular hole. And, a uniaxial tensile load acts on the patched plate with a circular hole. In the three-dimensional FEA model, it is not easy to model the adhesion layer. Basically, the yield stress of the adhesive is smaller than that of adherents. Accordingly, the adhesion layer gets to plastic deformation earlier than the adherents under the yield load of adherents. Therefore, we propose the three-dimensional FEA model which is applied a nonlinear elastic region to the adhesion layer. The nonlinear elastic region was calculated by a bilinear approximation. We compared the analysis results with the tensile test results to confirm whether the analysis model has usefulness. As a result, the analysis results agreed with the tensile test results. And, we confirmed that the analysis model has usefulness. As a result that the three-dimensional FEA model was used to the analysis, it was confirmed that an out-of-plane deformation occurred to the patched plate with a circular hole. The out-of-plane deformation causes stress increase of the patched plate with a circular hole. Therefore, we investigated that the out-of-plane deformation affects relaxation of the stress concentration in the plate with a circular hole on this relaxation method. As a result, it was confirmed that the out-of-plane deformation inhibits relaxation of the stress concentration on the plate with a circular hole.

Keywords: stress concentration, patch, out-of-plane deformation, Finite Element Analysis

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Authors: Mani Venkatesh, Catarina Delgado, Purvishkumar Patel

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The sustainable supply chain is gaining popularity among practitioners because of increased environmental degradation and stakeholder awareness. On the other hand supply chain, risk management is very crucial for the practitioners as it potentially disrupts supply chain operations. Prediction and addressing the risk caused by social issues in the supply chain is paramount importance to the sustainable enterprise. More recently, the usage of Big data analytics for forecasting business trends has been gaining momentum among professionals. The aim of the research is to explore the application of big data, predictive analytics in successfully mitigating supply chain social risk and demonstrate how such mitigation can help in achieving sustainability (environmental, economic & social). The method involves the identification and validation of social issues in the supply chain by an expert panel and survey. Later, we used a case study to illustrate the application of big data in the successful identification and mitigation of social issues in the supply chain. Our result shows that the company can predict various social issues through big data, predictive analytics and mitigate the social risk. We also discuss the implication of this research to the body of knowledge and practice.

Keywords: big data, sustainability, supply chain social sustainability, social risk, case study

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Authors: Abdul Rohim Tualeka, Erick Caravan K. Betekeneng, Ramdhoni Zuhro, Reko Triyono, M. Sahri

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It has been widely reported incidence caused by acute and chronic effects of exposure to ammonia in the working environment in Indonesia, but ammonia concentration was found to be below the threshold value. The purpose of this study was to determine the safety limit concentration of ammonia in the working environment through the expression of CD8 as a reference for determining the threshold value of ammonia in the working environment. This research was a laboratory experimental with post test only control group design using experimental animals as subjects experiment. From homogeneity test results indicated that the weight of white rats exposed and control groups had a homogeneous variant with a significant level of p (0.701) > α (0.05). Description of the average breathing rate is 0.0013 m³/h. Average weight rats based group listed exposure is 0.1405 kg. From the calculation IRS CD8, CD8 highest score in the doses contained 0.0154, with the location of the highest dose of ammonia without any effect on the lungs of rats is 0.0154 mg/kg body weight of mice. Safe Human Dose (SHD) ammonia is 0.002 mg/kg body weight workers. The conclusion of this study is the safety limit concentration of ammonia gas in the working environment of 0,025 ppm.

Keywords: ammonia, CD8, rats, safe limits concentration

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Authors: Daria Pashneva, Julija Pauraite, Agne Minderyte, Vadimas Dudoitis, Lina Davuliene, Kristina Plauskaite, Inga Garbariene, Steigvile Bycenkiene

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Black carbon (BC) has received particular attention around the world, not only for its impact on regional and global climate change but also for its impact on air quality and public health. In order to study the relationship between indoor and outdoor BC concentrations, studies were carried out in Vilnius, Lithuania. The studies are aimed at determining the relationship of concentrations, identifying dependencies during the day and week with a further opportunity to analyze the key factors affecting the indoor concentration of BC. In this context, indoor and outdoor continuous real-time measurements of optical BC-related light absorption by aerosol particles were carried out during the cold season (from October to December 2020). The measurement venue was an office located in an urban background environment. Equivalent black carbon (eBC) mass concentration was measured by an Aethalometer (Magee Scientific, model AE-31). The optical transmission of carbonaceous aerosol particles was measured sequentially at seven wavelengths (λ= 370, 470, 520, 590, 660, 880, and 950 nm), where the eBC mass concentration was derived from the light absorption coefficient (σab) at 880 nm wavelength. The diurnal indoor eBC mass concentration was found to vary in the range from 0.02 to 0.08 µgm⁻³, while the outdoor eBC mass concentration - from 0.34 to 0.99 µgm⁻³. Diurnal variations of eBC mass concentration outdoor vs. indoor showed an increased contribution during 10:00 and 12:00 AM (GMT+2), with the highest indoor eBC mass concentration of 0.14µgm⁻³. An indoor/outdoor eBC ratio (I/O) was below one throughout the entire measurement period. The weekend levels of eBC mass concentration were lower than in weekdays for indoor and outdoor for 33% and 28% respectively. Hourly mean mass concentrations of eBC for weekdays and weekends show diurnal cycles, which could be explained by the periodicity of traffic intensity and heating activities. The results show a moderate influence of outdoor eBC emissions on the indoor eBC level.

Keywords: black carbon, climate change, indoor air quality, I/O ratio

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Authors: Bismina Akbar, Smitha M. V.

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Flooding is a global phenomenon that causes widespread devastation, economic damage, and loss of human lives. In the past twenty years, the number of reported flood events has increased significantly. Millions of people around the globe are at risk of flooding from coastal, dam breaks, groundwater, and urban surface water and wastewater sources. Climate change is one of the important causes for them since it affects, directly and indirectly, the river network. Although the contribution of climate change is undeniable, human contributions are there to increase the frequency of floods. There are different types of floods, such as Flash floods, Coastal floods, Urban floods, River (or fluvial) floods, and Ponding (or pluvial flooding). This study focuses on formulating mitigation strategies for urban flood risk reduction through analysis of different best practice case studies, including China, Japan, Indonesia, and Brazil. The mitigation measures suggest that apart from the structural and non-structural measures, environmental considerations like blue-green solutions are beneficial for flood risk reduction. And also, Risk-Informed Master plans are essential nowadays to take risk-based decision processes that enable more sustainability and resilience.

Keywords: hazard, mitigation, risk reduction, urban flood

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Authors: Sri Yusnita Irda Sari, Deni Kurniadi Sunjaya, Ardini Saptaningsih Raksanagara

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Water is one of the fundamental basic needs for human life, particularly drinking water sources. Although water quality is getting better, fecal-contamination of water is still found around the world, especially in the slum area of mid-low income countries. Drinking water source contamination in urban slum dwellers increases the risk of water borne diseases. Low level of sanitation and poor drinking water supply known as risk factors for diarrhea, moreover bacteria-contaminated drinking water source is the main cause of diarrhea in developing countries. This study aimed to assess risk infection due to Fecal Coliform contamination in various drinking water sources in urban area by applying Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment (QMRA). A Cross-sectional survey was conducted in a period of August to October 2015. Water samples were taken by simple random sampling from households in Cikapundung river basin which was one of urban slum area in the center of Bandung city, Indonesia. About 379 water samples from 199 households and 15 common wells were tested. Half of the households used treated drinking water from water gallon mostly refill water gallon which was produced in drinking water refill station. Others used raw water sources which need treatment before consume as drinking water such as tap water, borehole, dug well and spring water source. Annual risk to get infection due to Fecal Coliform contamination from highest to lowest risk was dug well (1127.9 x 10-5), spring water (49.7 x 10-5), borehole (1.383 x 10-5) and tap water (1.121 x 10-5). Annual risk infection of refill drinking water was 1.577 x 10-5 which is comparable to borehole and tap water. Household water treatment and storage to make raw water sources drinkable is essential to prevent risk of water borne diseases. Strong regulation and intense monitoring of refill water gallon quality should be prioritized by the government; moreover, distribution of tap water should be more accessible and affordable especially in urban slum area.

Keywords: drinking water, quantitative microbiological risk assessment, slum, urban

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Authors: Mariam Ismail, Kazeem Rufai, Jeremiah Balogun

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A study was conducted to apply fuzzy logic to the development of a monitoring model for child pornography based on associated risk factors, which can be used by forensic experts or integrated into forensic systems for the early detection of child pornographic activities. A number of methods were adopted in the study, which includes an extensive review of related works was done in order to identify the factors that are associated with child pornography following which they were validated by an expert sex psychologist and guidance counselor, and relevant data was collected. Fuzzy membership functions were used to fuzzify the associated variables identified alongside the risk of the occurrence of child pornography based on the inference rules that were provided by the experts consulted, and the fuzzy logic expert system was simulated using the Fuzzy Logic Toolbox available in the MATLAB Software Release 2016. The results of the study showed that there were 4 categories of risk factors required for assessing the risk of a suspect committing child pornography offenses. The results of the study showed that 2 and 3 triangular membership functions were used to formulate the risk factors based on the 2 and 3 number of labels assigned, respectively. The results of the study showed that 5 fuzzy logic models were formulated such that the first 4 was used to assess the impact of each category on child pornography while the last one takes the 4 outputs from the 4 fuzzy logic models as inputs required for assessing the risk of child pornography. The following conclusion was made; there were factors that were related to personal traits, social traits, history of child pornography crimes, and self-regulatory deficiency traits by the suspects required for the assessment of the risk of child pornography crimes committed by a suspect. Using the values of the identified risk factors selected for this study, the risk of child pornography can be easily assessed from their values in order to determine the likelihood of a suspect perpetuating the crime.

Keywords: fuzzy, membership functions, pornography, risk factors

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Authors: Yukinori Fuse, Masato Kawaguchi

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A quantitative risk assessment method was developed for fiber emissions from sprayed asbestos-containing materials (ACMs). In Japan, instead of being quantitative, these risk assessments have relied on the subjective judgment of skilled engineers, which may vary from one person to another. Therefore, this closed sampling method aims at avoiding any potential variability between assessments. This method was used to assess emissions from ACM sprayed in eleven buildings and the obtained results were compared with the subjective judgments of a skilled engineer. An approximate correlation tendency was found between both approaches. In spite of existing uncertainties, the closed sampling method is useful for public health protection. We firmly believe that this method may find application in the management and renovation decisions of buildings using friable and sprayed ACM.

Keywords: asbestos, renovation, risk assessment, maintenance

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Authors: Abdullah Alsayeqh

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The burden of foodborne diseases in Saudi Arabia is currently unknown. The objective of this study was to identify risk factors associated with these diseases among women in Riyadh. A cross-sectional study was carried out from March to July, 2013 where participants’ responses indicated that they were at risk of these diseases through improper food-holding temperature (45.28%), inadequate cooking (35.47%), cross-contamination (32.23%), and food from unsafe sources (22.39%). The claimed food safety knowledge by 22.04% of participants was not evidenced by their reported behaviors (p > 0.05). This is the first study to identify the gap in food safety knowledge among women in Riyadh which needs to be addressed by the concerned authorities in the country by engaging women more effectively in food safety educational campaigns.

Keywords: foodborne diseases, risk factors, knowledge, women, Saudi Arabia

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Authors: Azlin S Azmi, Mus’ab Zainal, Sarina Sulaiman, Azura Amid, Zaki Zainudin

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Microalgae lipid is a promising feedstock for biodiesel production. The objective of this work was to study growth factors affecting marine mutant Synechococcus sp. (PCC 7002) for high lipid production. Four growth factors were investigated; nitrogen-phosporus-potassium (NPK) concentration, light intensity, temperature and NaNO3 concentration on mutant strain growth and lipid production were studied. Design Expert v8.0 was used to design the experimental and analyze the data. The experimental design selected was Min-Run Res IV which consists of 12 runs and the response surfaces measured were specific growth rate and lipid concentration. The extraction of lipid was conducted by chloroform/methanol solvents system. Based on the study, mutant Synechococcus sp. PCC 7002 gave the highest specific growth rate of 0.0014 h-1 at 0% NPK, 2500 lux, 40oC and 0% NaNO3. On the other hand, the highest lipid concentration was obtained at 0% NPK, 3500 lux, 30°C and 1% NaNO3.

Keywords: Cyanobacteria, lipid, mutant, marine Synechococcus sp. (PCC 7002), specific growth rate

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Authors: C. V. Pietreanu, S. E. Zaharia, C. Dinu

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Hazard assessment and risks quantification are key components for estimating the impact of existing regulations. But since regulatory compliance cannot cover all risks in aviation, the authors point out that by studying causal factors and eliminating uncertainty, an accurate analysis can be outlined. The research debuts by making delimitations on notions, as confusion on the terms over time has reflected in less rigorous analysis. Throughout this paper, it will be emphasized the fact that the variation in human performance and organizational factors represent the biggest threat from an operational perspective. Therefore, advanced risk assessment methods analyzed by the authors aim to understand vulnerabilities of the system given by a nonlinear behavior. Ultimately, the mathematical modeling of existing hazards and risks by eliminating uncertainty implies establishing an optimal solution (i.e. risk minimization).

Keywords: control, human factor, optimization, risk management, uncertainty

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Authors: S. Alyami, S. Mohammad

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These Risk management practices have a significant impact on construction SMEs. The effective utilisation of these practices depends on culture change in order to optimise decision making for critical activities within construction projects. Thus, successful implementation of empowerment strategies would enhance operational employees to participate in effective decision making. However, there remain many barriers to individuals and organisations within empowerment strategies that require empirical investigation before the industry can benefit from their implementation. Gaps in understanding the relationship between employee empowerment and risk management practices still exist. This research paper aims to examine the impact of the structural empowerment on risk management practices in construction SMEs. The questionnaire has been distributed to participants (162 employees) that involve projects and civil engineers within a case study from Saudi construction SMEs. Partial least squares based structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM) was utilised to perform analysis. The results reveal a positive relationship between empowerment and risk management practices. The study shows how structural empowerment contributes to operational employees in risk management practices through involving activities such as decision making, self-efficiency, and autonomy. The findings of this study will contribute to close the current gaps in the construction SMEs context.

Keywords: construction SMEs, culture, decision making, empowerment, risk management

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Authors: Sareh Rajabi, Salwa Bheiry

Abstract:

In general, Covid-19 created many financial and non-financial damages to the economy and community. Level and severity of covid-19 as pandemic case varies over the region and due to different types of the projects. Covid-19 virus emerged as one of the most imperative risk management factors word-wide recently. Therefore, as part of portfolio management assessment, it is essential to evaluate severity of such risk on the project and program in portfolio management level to avoid any risky portfolio. Covid-19 appeared very effectively in South America, part of Europe and Middle East. Such pandemic infection affected the whole universe, due to lock down, interruption in supply chain management, health and safety requirements, transportations and commercial impacts. Therefore, this research proposes Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) to analyze and assess such pandemic case like Covid-19 and its impacts on the construction projects. The AHP technique uses four sub-criteria: Health and safety, commercial risk, completion risk and contractual risk to evaluate the project and program. The result will provide the decision makers with information which project has higher or lower risk in case of Covid-19 and pandemic scenario. Therefore, the decision makers can have most feasible solution based on effective weighted criteria for project selection within their portfolio to match with the organization’s strategies.

Keywords: portfolio management, risk management, COVID-19, analytical hierarchy process technique

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Authors: Mohammad H. Ruhipour, Mahdi Goharrokhi, Mahsa Ghasemi, Artadokht Ostadsarayi

Abstract:

In this paper, we are aiming to study the consequences of chlorine gas leak in direct chlorine gas injection compared to using bleach (sodium hypochlorite), studying the negative effects both on the environment and individuals. This study was performed in the cooling towers of a natural fractioning unit of Bandar-e-IMAM petrochemical plant. Considering that chlorine gas is highly toxic and based on the health regulation, its release into the surrounding environment can be very dangerous for people and even fatal for individuals. We studied performing quantitative studies in the worst cases of event incidence. In addition, studying alternative methods with a lower risk was also on the agenda to select the least likely possible option causing an accident. In this paper chlorine gas release consequences have been evaluated by using PHAST software. Reaching to 10 ppm of chlorine gas concentration was basis of hazardous area determination. The results show that the full chlorine gas line rupture scenario in Pasquill category F, were worst case, and many people could be harmed around cooling towers area because of chlorine gas inhalation.

Keywords: chlorine gas, consequence modeling, cooling towers, direct chlorination, risk assessment, system failure

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Authors: Emmy Pratiwi, Ketut B. Artana, A. A. B. Dinariyana

Abstract:

Madura Strait is considered as one of the busiest shipping channels in Indonesia. High vessel traffic density in Madura Strait gives serious threat due to navigational safety in this area, i.e. ship collision. This study is necessary as an attempt to enhance the safety of marine traffic. Fuzzy inference system (FIS) is proposed to calculate risk collision of ships. Collision risk is evaluated based on ship domain, Distance to Closest Point of Approach (DCPA), and Time to Closest Point of Approach (TCPA). Data were collected by utilizing Automatic Identification System (AIS). This study considers several ships’ domain models to give the characteristic of marine traffic in the waterways. Each encounter in the ship domain is analyzed to obtain the level of collision risk. Risk level of ships, as the result in this study, can be used as guidance to avoid the accident, providing brief description about safety traffic in Madura Strait and improving the navigational safety in the area.

Keywords: automatic identification system, collision risk, DCPA, fuzzy inference system, TCPA

Procedia PDF Downloads 549

Authors: A. Fathianpour, M. B. Jelodar, S. Wilkinson

Abstract:

This paper outlines the approaches taken to assess multi-hazard assessments. There is currently confusion in assessing multi-hazard impacts, and so this study aims to determine which of the available options are the most useful. The paper uses an international literature search, and analysis of current multi-hazard assessments and a case study to illustrate the effectiveness of the chosen method. Findings from this study will help those wanting to assess multi-hazards to undertake a straightforward approach. The paper is significant as it helps to interpret the various approaches and concludes with the preferred method. Many people in the world live in hazardous environments and are susceptible to disasters. Unfortunately, when a disaster strikes it is often compounded by additional cascading hazards, thus people would confront more than one hazard simultaneously. Hazards include natural hazards (earthquakes, floods, etc.) or cascading human-made hazards (for example, Natural Hazard Triggering Technological disasters (Natech) such as fire, explosion, toxic release). Multi-hazards have a more destructive impact on urban areas than one hazard alone. In addition, climate change is creating links between different disasters such as causing landslide dams and debris flows leading to more destructive incidents. Much of the prevailing literature deals with only one hazard at a time. However, recently sophisticated multi-hazard assessments have started to appear. Given that multi-hazards occur, it is essential to take multi-hazard risk assessment under consideration. This paper aims to review the multi-hazard assessment methods through articles published to date and categorize the strengths and disadvantages of using these methods in risk assessment. Napier City is selected as a case study to demonstrate the necessity of using multi-hazard risk assessments. In order to assess multi-hazard risk assessments, first, the current multi-hazard risk assessment methods were described. Next, the drawbacks of these multi-hazard risk assessments were outlined. Finally, the improvements to current multi-hazard risk assessments to date were summarised. Generally, the main problem of multi-hazard risk assessment is to make a valid assumption of risk from the interactions of different hazards. Currently, risk assessment studies have started to assess multi-hazard situations, but drawbacks such as uncertainty and lack of data show the necessity for more precise risk assessment. It should be noted that ignoring or partial considering multi-hazards in risk assessment will lead to an overestimate or overlook in resilient and recovery action managements.

Keywords: cascading hazards, disaster assessment, mullti-hazards, risk assessment

Procedia PDF Downloads 112