Search results for: uncertainty and decision making

Authors: Karim Hamidi Machekposhti, Hossein Sedghi

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This study was designed to find the best stochastic model (using of time series analysis) for annual extreme streamflow (peak and maximum streamflow) of Karkheh River at Iran. The Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model used to simulate these series and forecast those in future. For the analysis, annual extreme streamflow data of Jelogir Majin station (above of Karkheh dam reservoir) for the years 1958–2005 were used. A visual inspection of the time plot gives a little increasing trend; therefore, series is not stationary. The stationarity observed in Auto-Correlation Function (ACF) and Partial Auto-Correlation Function (PACF) plots of annual extreme streamflow was removed using first order differencing (d=1) in order to the development of the ARIMA model. Interestingly, the ARIMA(4,1,1) model developed was found to be most suitable for simulating annual extreme streamflow for Karkheh River. The model was found to be appropriate to forecast ten years of annual extreme streamflow and assist decision makers to establish priorities for water demand. The Statistical Analysis System (SAS) and Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) codes were used to determinate of the best model for this series.

Keywords: stochastic models, ARIMA, extreme streamflow, Karkheh river

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Authors: Shemroy Roberts

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Despite minor theoretical contributions in slavery heritage tourism research that have commented on the demand-side perspective, visitor behavior and engagement with slavery heritage attractions remain unexplored. Thus, there is a need for empirical studies and theoretical knowledge to understand visitor engagement with slavery heritage attractions, particularly U.K. slavery heritage museums. The purpose of this paper is to critically evaluate the factors that influence visitor engagement with U.K. slavery heritage museums. This qualitative research utilizes a passive symbolic ethnographic methodology. Seven U.K. slavery heritage museums will be used to collect data through unobtrusive internet-mediated observations of TripAdvisor reviews and online semi-structured interviews with managers and curators. Preliminary findings indicate that social media, prior knowledge, multiple motivations, cultural capital, and the design and layout of exhibits influence visitor engagement with slavery heritage museums. This research contributes to an understanding of visitor engagement with U.K. slavery heritage museums. The findings of this paper will provide insights into the factors that influence visitor engagement with U.K. slavery heritage museums to managers, curators, and decision-makers responsible for designing and managing those attractions. Therefore, the results of this paper will enable museum professionals to better manage visitor engagement with slavery heritage museums.

Keywords: museums, netnography, slavery, visitor engagement

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Authors: Nicanor Garcia Alvarez, Belarmino Adenso-Diaz, Laura Calzada Infante

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In recent years, researchers have shown an interest in modelling maritime traffic as a complex network. In this paper, we propose a bipartite weighted network to model maritime traffic and detect port maritime communities. The bipartite weighted network considers two different types of nodes. The first one represents Spanish ports, while the second one represents the countries with which there is major import/export activity. The flow among both types of nodes is modeled by weighting the volume of product transported. To illustrate the model, the data is segmented by each type of traffic. This will allow fine tuning and the creation of communities for each type of traffic and therefore finding similar ports for a specific type of traffic, which will provide decision-makers with tools to search for alliances or identify their competitors. The traffic with the greatest impact on the Spanish gross domestic product is selected, and the evolution of the communities formed by the most important ports and their differences between 2019 and 2009 will be analyzed. Finally, the set of communities formed by the ports of the Spanish port system will be inspected to determine global similarities between them, analyzing the sum of the membership of the different ports in communities formed for each type of traffic in particular.

Keywords: bipartite networks, competition, infomap, maritime traffic, port communities

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Authors: Claudio Burguez, María Castelló, Mikaela Pisani, Marcos Umpiérrez

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BIOFEEDBACK exhibition offers a unique experience for each visitor, combining art, neuroscience, and technology in an interactive way. Using a headband that captures the bioelectric activity of the brain, the visitors are able to generate sound and images in a sequence loop, making them an integral part of the artwork. Through this interactive exhibit, visitors gain a deeper appreciation of the beauty and complexity of the brain. As a special takeaway, visitors will receive an NFT as a present, allowing them to continue their engagement with the exhibition beyond the physical space. We used the EEG Biofeedback technique following a closed-loop neuroscience approach, transforming EEG data captured by a Muse S headband in real-time into audiovisual stimulation. PureData is used for sound generation and Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) for image generation. Thirty participants have experienced the exhibition. For some individuals, it was easier to focus than others. Participants who said they could focus during the exhibit stated that at one point, they felt that they could control the sound, while images were more abstract, and they did not feel that they were able to control them.

Keywords: art, audiovisual, biofeedback, EEG, NFT, neuroscience, technology

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Authors: Stephanie Watson, Fabrice Stephenson, Conrad Pilditch, Carolyn Lundquist

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Spatial data detailing both the distribution and density of functionally important marine species are needed to inform management decisions. Species distribution models (SDMs) have proven helpful in this regard; however, models often focus only on species occurrences derived from spatially expansive datasets and lack the resolution and detail required to inform regional management decisions. Boosted regression trees (BRT) were used to produce high-resolution SDMs (250 m) at two spatial scales predicting probability of occurrence, abundance (count per sample unit), density (count per km2) and uncertainty for seven coastal seafloor taxa that vary in habitat usage and distribution to examine prediction differences and implications for coastal management. We investigated if small scale regionally focussed models (82,000 km2) can provide improved predictions compared to data-rich national scale models (4.2 million km2). We explored the variability in predictions across model type (occurrence vs abundance) and model scale to determine if specific taxa models or model types are more robust to geographical variability. National scale occurrence models correlated well with broad-scale environmental predictors, resulting in higher AUC (Area under the receiver operating curve) and deviance explained scores; however, they tended to overpredict in the coastal environment and lacked spatially differentiated detail for some taxa. Regional models had lower overall performance, but for some taxa, spatial predictions were more differentiated at a localised ecological scale. National density models were often spatially refined and highlighted areas of ecological relevance producing more useful outputs than regional-scale models. The utility of a two-scale approach aids the selection of the most optimal combination of models to create a spatially informative density model, as results contrasted for specific taxa between model type and scale. However, it is vital that robust predictions of occurrence and abundance are generated as inputs for the combined density model as areas that do not spatially align between models can be discarded. This study demonstrates the variability in SDM outputs created over different geographical scales and highlights implications and opportunities for managers utilising these tools for regional conservation, particularly in data-limited environments.

Keywords: Benthic ecology, spatial modelling, multi-scalar modelling, marine conservation.

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Authors: Sisira Edirippulige, Anthony C. Smith, Sumudu Wickramasinghe, Nigel R. Armfield

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Background: E-Health is steadily integrating into modern health services, making significant changes in the way health services are traditionally delivered. To work in this new environment, healthcare workers are required to have new knowledge, skills, and competencies specific to e-Health. The aim of this study was to understand the self-reported perceptions of graduates regarding the influence of an e-Health postgraduate program on their professional careers. Methods: All graduates from 2005 to 2015 were surveyed using an online questionnaire that consisted of a mixture of closed and open-ended questions. Results: The number of participants in the study was 32. Response rate was 62%. Graduates thought that the postgraduate e-Health program had an influence on their professional practice. The majority of the participants mentioned that they had worked in the e-Health field since their graduation. Their professional roles mainly involved implementation of e-Health in health service settings and the use of e-Health in clinical practice. Conclusions: While e-Health may be steadily integrating into modern health services, e-Health specific job opportunities are still relatively limited. E-Health workforce development must be given priority.

Keywords: e-health, postgraduate education, clinical practice, curriculum

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Authors: Adejo Andrew Ojonugwa, Jomboh Jeff Kator, Garkida Adele Dzikwi

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This study investigates the behaviour of textured glass coat to chemical reactions upon application. Samples of textured glass coat developed from mixed post consumer glass were subjected to pH test (ASTM D5464), Chemical resistance test (ASTM D3260 and D1308), Adhesion test (ASTM D3359), and Abrasion test (ASTM D4060). Results shows a pH of 8.50, Chemical resistance of 5% flick rate when reacted with Sodium hydroxide (NaOH), a 3%, 5%, 10%, and 15% discolouration when reacted with Magnesium hydroxide (Mg(OH)2), Hydrogen fluoride (HF), Potassium hydroxide (KOH) and NaOH respectively, an adhesion of 4A and abrasion of 0.2g. The results confirm that the developed textured glass coat is in line with the standard pH range of 8-9, resistant to acid and base except for HF, NaOH, and Mg(OH)₂, good adhesion and abrasion properties, thereby making the coat resistant to chemical degradation and a good engineering material.

Keywords: chemical durability, glass-coat, building, recycling

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Authors: Felicia Masenu

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Identity formation remains central to diaspora populations as they are known to have multiple attachments to places, including the 'ancestral homeland.' This paper emphasizes the potency of the ancestral homeland in the imagination of diaspora populations and a 'yearning' for an eventual return. This has led to the repatriation and visits of many Diasporan Africans to Africa. What have also been highlighted are the motivations, experiences, and challenges associated with the return of African Americans to Africa, as well as some of the idealistic expectations that Diasporan Africans have regarding the ancestral homeland. When Diasporan Africans visit Africa, they are faced with different kinds of situations that are challenging. Yet, the number of visits to Africa by Diasporan Africans, particularly, African Americans, keep increasing. This paper draws on the life history of Imahkus Nzinga, an African American who repatriated to Ghana in the 1990s, as a case study of African Americans’ relentless quest to pursue the ancestral homeland, despite the challenges involved. The paper argues that the quest for identity construction remains the overriding motivation for African Americans in their decision to repatriate to Africa, and discusses how in this case, Imahkus Nzinga attempts to reconcile what is called in this paper 'identity struggle.'

Keywords: African Americans, Diaspora, identity formation, identity struggle, repatriation

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Authors: Mansour N. Jadid

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This paper describes the implementation of a GIS to provide decision support for successfully monitoring the movements and storage of materials, hence ensuring that finished products travel from the point of origin to the destination construction site through the supply-chain management (SCM) system. This system ensures the efficient operation of suppliers, manufacturers, and distributors by determining the shortest path from the point of origin to the final destination to reduce construction costs, minimize time, and enhance productivity. These systems are essential to the construction industry because they reduce costs and save time, thereby improve productivity and effectiveness. This study describes a typical supply-chain model and a geographical information system (GIS)-based SCM that focuses on implementing an electronic document management system, which maps the application framework to integrate geodetic support with the supply-chain system. This process provides guidance for locating the nearest suppliers to fill the information needs of project members in different locations. Moreover, this study illustrates the use of a GIS-based SCM as a collaborative tool in innovative methods for implementing Web mapping services, as well as aspects of their integration by generating an interactive GIS for the construction industry platform.

Keywords: construction, coordinate, engineering, GIS, management, map

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Authors: L. G. Abubakar, A. M. El-Okene, M. L. Suleiman, Z. Abubakar

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Fadama tillage in Northern Nigeria and in Zaria in particular, has relied on manual labour and corresponding implements which are associated with drudgery, loss of human energy due to bending and reduced productivity. A survey was conducted to study the present tillage practices and determine the constraints associated with the use of animal traction for mechanized tillage of the Fadama. The study revealed that Fadama farmers (mostly aged between 36 and 60 years) use manual labour with tools like small hoe, big hoe and rake to till during the dry season (October of one year to March of the next year). Most of the Fadama farmers believe that tillage operations like ploughing, harrowing and basin making are very important tillage activities in the preparation of seedbeds for crops like green maize, sugarcane and vegetables, but are constrained to using animal traction for tillage due to beliefs like unsuitability of the workbulls and corresponding implements, Fadama soil being too heavy for the system and the non-attainment of deep tillage required by crops like sugarcane and potato. These were affirmed by local blacksmiths of animal traction implements and agricultural officers of government establishments.

Keywords: snimal traction, Fadama, tillage implements, workbulls

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Authors: Chaudhary Archana, Dhingra Poshika

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The architecture of the world is at a crossroads with the advent of new technology. The issues of energy efficiency and global warming are getting important with the coming times. New technologies are making their mark. For the architecture profession, nanotechnology will greatly impact construction materials and their properties. Nanotechnology, the understanding and control of matter at a scale of one to one hundred billions of a meter, is bringing incredible changes to the materials and processes of buildings. Materials will behave in many different ways as we are able to more precisely control their properties at the nanoscale. It is precisely called the next industrial revolution. We live in an age where scientific progress continues to transform human lifestyle. This is evermore true when it comes to the progress being made in the field of nanotechnology. This science stands to change and advance the practice of design in a multitude of ways – where architectural progress is being made at the molecular level. The nanotechnology has already been adopted in various buildings across the world. What an impact it shall have on the futuristic architecture in Chandigarh, India shall be discussed in the paper. But before we hurtle off toward a nano-utopia, we need to step back and ask ourselves whether this is a direction in which we really want to go.

Keywords: building materials, energy efficiency, nanotechnology, sustainability

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Authors: Ruchirat Patanathabutr

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This applied research has adopted descriptive social science research methodology to interpret, analyze and assess the data and used descriptive analysis to present the research results. The objective of this research is to investigate the behaviors and opinions on the service and construction of cable car system at the Upper Esaan Wild Animal Adventure Park (Khon Kaen – Udon Thani) in Khao Suan Kwang District, Khon Kaen Province (Khon Kaen Zoo) of people in the local and distant communities as well as the service users. The research results have revealed that the main target group is the residents in the upper northeastern region of Thailand, especially those who have resided in the immediate vicinity of the cable car project and in nearby districts for more than 10 years. They are men and women at the age of 20-60 with high school diploma and higher levels of education, working as traders/entrepreneurs, government officers/state enterprise employees, and freelancers/self-employed, with the average monthly income of no more than 30,000 baht. Khon Kaen Zoo should improve its 4 organizational images as a tourist attraction, an animal display enclosure, an educational institution and as a provincial symbol; however, the zoo should mainly be presented as an important tourist attraction. The service should focus on maintaining the service standards in both the animal display area and the ocean park. The attention should also be directed at the types and numbers of animals, service quality, service fee, convenient access and transportation, promotions and the standards of other services. Regarding the community involvement in the cable car system construction project, it is strongly agreed that there should be a cable car service between the animal display area and the ocean park and a round-trip ticket should cost 20 baht, 50 baht or 100 baht, respectively. Khon Kaen Zoo or responsible entity must provide related groups of people, such as people in the local and distant communities as well as the service users, with accurate information about the community management guidelines. This is because the community opinions have showed the uncertainty about the cable car system construction at Khon Kaen Zoo and the 4 principles of management, including planning, organizing, leading and controlling, are indicated as uncertain as there is no statistically significant difference at 0.05. In addition, the social, economic, and environmental impacts of the cable car system construction at Khon Kaen Zoo on the communities must be considered carefully.

Keywords: community opinion, cable car system, Khon Kaen Zoo, Thailand

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Authors: Mahnaz Poorshahidi

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This article is a psychological reading of Shakespeare’s Hamlet applying Lacan’s ideas to work with a new look. Lacan entitled Hamlet ‘tragedy of desire’. He believes that Hamlet is caught up in the desire of his mother. So he is the universal symbol of all human beings, regardless of their sex, who desire their mother, but based on the rules of Nature and Father, this unity is impossible. Hamlet hesitates in fulfilling the task of revenge and the text says nothing about the reasons and motives behind it. However, this essay tries to answer the question and justify Hamlet’s hesitation. There is one question for the readers, which is why Hamlet appears to delay in killing his uncle, despite the fact that this is precisely what he seems to want to do. In 1958-59 Lacan delivered a series of lectures on Hamlet entitled ‘Desire and Its Interpretations’ and called it ‘tragedy of desire’. However, this article will have a new representation of Hamlet’s decision not to take revenge. The research demonstrates that Hamlet has passed through imaginary, symbolic and real stages, which are the natural process of life. Eliminating father means disturbing this natural process. This essay is going to conclude that killing Claudius can break the natural order of life. On the other hand, Claudius has also disturbed nature and is regretful about his deed. Hamlet’s ever-present speech ‘To be or not to be’ reflects his mental turmoil and disturbance of the natural life cycle: Nature.

Keywords: desire, father figure, lacan, nature

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Authors: Ahmad Shayeq Azizi, Yuji Toda

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In Afghanistan, floods are the most frequent and recurrent events among other natural disasters. On the other hand, lack of monitoring data is a severe problem, which increases the difficulty of making the appropriate flood countermeasures of flood forecasting. This study is carried out to simulate the flood inundation in Harirud River Basin by application of distributed hydrological model, Integrated Flood Analysis System (IFAS) and 2D hydrodynamic model, International River Interface Cooperative (iRIC) based on satellite rainfall combined with historical peak discharge and global accessed data. The results of the simulation can predict the inundation area, depth and velocity, and the hardware countermeasures such as the impact of levee installation can be discussed by using the present method. The methodology proposed in this study is suitable for the area where hydrological and geographical data including river survey data are poorly observed.

Keywords: distributed hydrological model, flood inundation, hydrodynamic model, ungauged basins

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Authors: Sven Borén, Henrik Ny

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Ambitions within the EU for moving towards sustainable transport include major emission reductions for fossil fuel road vehicles, especially for buses, trucks, and cars. The electric driveline seems to be an attractive solution for such development. This study first applied the Framework for Strategic Sustainable Development to compare sustainability effects of today’s fossil fuel vehicles with electric vehicles that have batteries or hydrogen fuel cells. The study then addressed a scenario were electric vehicles might be in majority in Europe by 2050. The methodology called Strategic Lifecycle Assessment was first used, were each life cycle phase was assessed for violations against sustainability principles. This indicates where further analysis could be done in order to quantify the magnitude of each violation, and later to create alternative strategies and actions that lead towards sustainability. A Life Cycle Assessment of combustion engine cars, plug-in hybrid cars, battery electric cars and hydrogen fuel cell cars was then conducted to compare and quantify environmental impacts. The authors found major violations of sustainability principles like use of fossil fuels, which contribute to the increase of emission related impacts such as climate change, acidification, eutrophication, ozone depletion, and particulate matters. Other violations were found, such as use of scarce materials for batteries and fuel cells, and also for most life cycle phases for all vehicles when using fossil fuel vehicles for mining, production and transport. Still, the studied current battery and hydrogen fuel cell cars have less severe violations than fossil fuel cars. The life cycle assessment revealed that fossil fuel cars have overall considerably higher environmental impacts compared to electric cars as long as the latter are powered by renewable electricity. By 2050, there will likely be even more sustainable alternatives than the studied electric vehicles when the EU electricity mix mainly should stem from renewable sources, batteries should be recycled, fuel cells should be a mature technology for use in vehicles (containing no scarce materials), and electric drivelines should have replaced combustion engines in other sectors. An uncertainty for fuel cells in 2050 is whether the production of hydrogen will have had time to switch to renewable resources. If so, that would contribute even more to a sustainable development. Except for being adopted in the GreenCharge roadmap, the authors suggest that the results can contribute to planning in the upcoming decades for a sustainable increase of EVs in Europe, and potentially serve as an inspiration for other smaller or larger regions. Further studies could map the environmental effects in LCA further, and include other road vehicles to get a more precise perception of how much they could affect sustainable development.

Keywords: strategic, electric vehicles, sustainability, LCA

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Authors: Shaine Mehta, Neelam Parmar, Patrick White, Mark Ashworth

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Patients with a history of substance have a high prevalence of comorbidities, including asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Mortality rates are higher than that of the general population and the link to respiratory disease is reported. Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) support opioid substitution therapy as an effective means for harm reduction. However, whilst a high proportion of patients receiving opioid substitution therapy are smokers, to the author’s best knowledge there have been no studies of respiratory disease and smoking intensity in these patients. A cross sectional prevalence study was conducted using an anonymised patient-level database in primary care, Lambeth DataNet (LDN). We included patients aged 18 years and over who had records of ever having been prescribed methadone in primary care. Patients under 18 years old or prescribed buprenorphine (because of uncertainty about the prescribing indication) were excluded. Demographic, smoking, alcohol and asthma and COPD coding data were extracted. Differences between methadone and non-methadone users were explored with multivariable analysis. LDN contained data on 321, 395 patients ≥ 18 years; 676 (0.16%) had a record of methadone prescription. Patients prescribed methadone were more likely to be male (70.7% vs. 50.4%), older (48.9yrs vs. 41.5yrs) and less likely to be from an ethnic minority group (South Asian 2.1% vs. 7.8%; Black African 8.9% vs. 21.4%). Almost all those prescribed methadone were smokers or ex-smokers (97.3% vs. 40.9%); more were non-alcohol drinkers (41.3% vs. 24.3%). We found a high prevalence of COPD (12.4% vs 1.4%) and asthma (14.2% vs 4.4%). Smoking intensity data shows a high prevalence of ≥ 20 cigarettes per day (21.5% vs. 13.1%). Risk of COPD, adjusted for age, gender, ethnicity and deprivation, was raised in smokers: odds ratio 14.81 (95%CI 11.26, 19.47), and in the methadone group: OR 7.51 (95%CI: 5.78, 9.77). Furthermore, after adjustment for smoking intensity (number of cigarettes/day), the risk was raised in methadone group: OR 4.77 (95%CI: 3.13, 7.28). High burden of respiratory disease compounded by the high rates of smoking is a public health concern. This supports an integrated approach to health in patients treated for opiate dependence, with access to smoking cessation support. Further work may evaluate the current structure and commissioning of substance misuse services, including smoking cessation. Regression modelling highlights that methadone as a ‘risk factor’ was independently associated with COPD prevalence, even after adjustment for smoking intensity. This merits further exploration, as the association may be related to unexplored aspects of smoking (such as the number of years smoked) or may be related to other related exposures, such as smoking heroin or crack cocaine.

Keywords: methadone, respiratory disease, smoking cessation, substance misuse

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Authors: Dongfang Qiu, Yilin Lu

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The measurement of enterprise-university-research cooperative efficiency has important meanings in improving the cooperative efficiency, strengthening the effective integration of regional resource, enhancing the ability of regional innovation and promoting the development of regional economy. The paper constructs the DEA method and DEA-Malmquist productivity index method to research the cooperation efficiency of Hubei by making comparisons with other provinces in China. The study found out the index of technology efficiency is 0.52 and the enterprise-university- research cooperative efficiency is Non-DEA efficient. To realize the DEA efficiency of Hubei province, the amount of 1652.596 R&D employees and 638.368 R&D employees’ full time equivalence should be reduced or 137.89 billion yuan of new products’ sales income be increased. Finally, it puts forward policy recommendations on existing problems to strengthen the standings of the cooperation, realize the effective application of the research results, and improve the level of management of enterprise-university-research cooperation efficiency.

Keywords: cooperation ability, DEA method, enterprise-university-research cooperation, Malmquist efficiency index

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Authors: Abdullah Alsehaimi

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Over decades, there have been many studies of delay in construction, and this type of study continues to be popular in construction management research. A synthesis and critical evaluation of delay studies in developing countries reveals that poor project management is cited as one of the main causes of delay. However, despite such consensus, most of the previous studies fall short in providing clear recommendations demonstrating how project management practice could be improved. Moreover, the majority of recommendations are general and not devoted to solving the difficulties associated with particular delay causes. This paper aims to demonstrate that the root cause of this state of affairs is that typical research into delay tends to be descriptive and explanatory, making it inadequate for solving persistent managerial problems in construction. It is contended that many problems in construction could be mitigated via alternative research approaches, i.e. action and constructive research. Such prescriptive research methods can assist in the development and implementation of innovative tools tackling managerial problems of construction, including that of delay. In so doing, those methods will better connect research and practice, and thus strengthen the relevance of academic construction management.

Keywords: construction delay, action research, constructive research, industrial engineering

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Authors: Kefaya Qaddoum

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Most of greenhouse growers desire a determined amount of yields in order to accurately meet market requirements. The purpose of this paper is to model a simple but often satisfactory supervised classification method. The original naive Bayes have a serious weakness, which is producing redundant predictors. In this paper, utilized regularization technique was used to obtain a computationally efficient classifier based on naive Bayes. The suggested construction, utilized L1-penalty, is capable of clearing redundant predictors, where a modification of the LARS algorithm is devised to solve this problem, making this method applicable to a wide range of data. In the experimental section, a study conducted to examine the effect of redundant and irrelevant predictors, and test the method on WSG data set for tomato yields, where there are many more predictors than data, and the urge need to predict weekly yield is the goal of this approach. Finally, the modified approach is compared with several naive Bayes variants and other classification algorithms (SVM and kNN), and is shown to be fairly good.

Keywords: tomato yield prediction, naive Bayes, redundancy, WSG

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Authors: Rawan K. Al-Duaij, Salem A. Al-Salem

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Projects, the unique and temporary process of achieving a set of requirements have always been challenging; Planning the schedule and budget, managing the resources and risks are mostly driven by a similar past experience or the technical consultations of experts in the matter. With that complexity of Projects in Scope, Time, and execution environment, Adjustment Orders are tools to reflect changes to the original project parameters after Contract signature. Adjustment Orders are the official/legal amendments to the terms and conditions of a live Contract. Reasons for issuing Adjustment Orders arise from changes in Contract scope, technical requirement and specification resulting in scope addition, deletion, or alteration. It can be as well a combination of most of these parameters resulting in an increase or decrease in time and/or cost. Most business leaders (handling projects in the interest of the owner) refrain from using Adjustment Orders considering their main objectives of staying within budget and on schedule. Success in managing the changes results in uninterrupted execution and agreed project costs as well as schedule. Nevertheless, this is not always practically achievable. In this paper, a detailed study through utilizing Industrial Engineering & Systems Management tools such as Six Sigma, Data Analysis, and Quality Control were implemented on the organization’s five years records of the issued Adjustment Orders in order to investigate their prevalence, and time and cost impact. The analysis outcome revealed and helped to identify and categorize the predominant causations with the highest impacts, which were considered most in recommending the corrective measures to reach the objective of minimizing the Adjustment Orders impacts. Data analysis demonstrated no specific trend in the AO frequency in past five years; however, time impact is more than the cost impact. Although Adjustment Orders might never be avoidable; this analysis offers’ some insight to the procedural gaps, and where it is highly impacting the organization. Possible solutions are concluded such as improving project handling team’s coordination and communication, utilizing a blanket service contract, and modifying the projects gate system procedures to minimize the possibility of having similar struggles in future. Projects in the Oil and Gas sector are always evolving and demand a certain amount of flexibility to sustain the goals of the field. As it will be demonstrated, the uncertainty of project parameters, in adequate project definition, operational constraints and stringent procedures are main factors resulting in the need for Adjustment Orders and accordingly the recommendation will be to address that challenge.

Keywords: adjustment orders, data analysis, oil and gas sector, systems management

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Authors: María Victoria Alvarez Magañini, Lautaro Nahuel Rubbi

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According to different theories, the hegemonic war between the United States and the People's Republic of China seems to be imminent. However, nowadays, it is clear that China's conventional military capacity is inferior to that of the United States. Nevertheless, the conditions that in the past were considered to be an indicator of validity in asymmetrical warfare, at present, in a possible asymmetric war scenario, are no longer considered to be taken as such. The military capacity is not the only concept that represents the main indicator of victory. The organisation and the use of forces are also an essential part of it. The present paper aims to analyze the Chinese Defense Strategy in relation to the concept of asymmetric warfare in the face of a possible war with the United States. The starting point will be developed on the basis of application of the theory which corresponds to the concept aforementioned making focus on recent developments of the People’s Republic of China in the field of non-conventional defense. A comparative analysis of the conventional forces of both powers/countries will also be carried out.

Keywords: asymmetric warfare, China, United States, hegemonic warfare

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Authors: Zayd Parekh, Amish Prasad, Baraa Souman

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Postural orthostatic tachycardia syndrome (POTS) is characterized by orthostatic intolerance due to an exaggerated tachycardia in response to standing upright. This exaggerated orthostatic tachycardia is defined as the heart rate (HR) rising 30 beats above a baseline value while supine or seated within ten minutes. The tachycardia can lead to symptoms of orthostatic intolerance such as palpitations, lightheadedness, exercise intolerance, fatigue, and anxiety. POTS can go undiagnosed for many years due to its similarities with other cardiac and psychiatric conditions and nonspecific presentation, making it crucial to raise awareness for it in the medical field. The following case study discusses a 30-year-old female who was evaluated in the emergency room several times before being referred to the clinic for POTS. An overview of what tests are performed with this patient is also provided, highlighting the diagnostic work-up for POTS and the process of ruling out other differentials being considered. Finally, the epidemiology, the various theories regarding its pathophysiology, the diagnostic process, and pharmacological and non-pharmacological management for POTS are reviewed.

Keywords: orthostatic intolerance, postural orthostatic tachycardia syndrome, syncope, tachycardia

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Authors: J. Satya Eswari, Ch. Venkateswarlu

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The formulation of a commercial pharmaceutical product involves several composition factors and response characteristics. When the formulation requires to satisfy multiple response characteristics which are conflicting, an optimal solution requires the need for an efficient multiobjective optimization technique. In this work, a regression is combined with a non-dominated sorting differential evolution (NSDE) involving Naïve & Slow and ε constraint techniques to derive different multiobjective optimization strategies, which are then evaluated by means of a trapidil pharmaceutical formulation. The analysis of the results show the effectiveness of the strategy that combines the regression model and NSDE with the integration of both Naïve & Slow and ε constraint techniques for Pareto optimization of trapidil formulation. With this strategy, the optimal formulation at pH=6.8 is obtained with the decision variables of micro crystalline cellulose, hydroxypropyl methylcellulose and compression pressure. The corresponding response characteristics of rate constant and release order are also noted down. The comparison of these results with the experimental data and with those of other multiple regression model based multiobjective evolutionary optimization strategies signify the better performance for optimal trapidil formulation.

Keywords: pharmaceutical formulation, multiple regression model, response surface method, radial basis function network, differential evolution, multiobjective optimization

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Authors: Bharat P. Modi, Jayesh M. Patel

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Mobile Internet is acting as a major source of data. As the number of web pages continues to grow the Mobile web provides the data miners with just the right ingredients for extracting information. In order to cater to this growing need, a special term called Mobile Web mining was coined. Mobile Web mining makes use of data mining techniques and deciphers potentially useful information from web data. Web Usage mining deals with understanding the behavior of users by making use of Mobile Web Access Logs that are generated on the server while the user is accessing the website. A Web access log comprises of various entries like the name of the user, his IP address, a number of bytes transferred time-stamp etc. A variety of Log Analyzer tools exists which help in analyzing various things like users navigational pattern, the part of the website the users are mostly interested in etc. The present paper makes use of such log analyzer tool called Mobile Web Log Expert for ascertaining the behavior of users who access an astrology website. It also provides a comparative study between a few log analyzer tools available.

Keywords: mobile web access logs, web usage mining, web server, log analyzer

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Authors: Shekhar Chatterjee

Abstract:

Architectural marvels of the Patan stepwell in Gujarat state in India were studied, to look into the cultural and design attributes in them. Direct observation, photography and interviewing the local people (especially senior citizens) were the methodology adopted. The aim was to look for clues into how culture and design affected architectural marvels of a building and convey that to the tourists. These interpretations from this building can offer many ideas to the contemporary design world in the form of design of modern day garments for various occasions, ornaments or accessory products for daily usage like bags, shoes and similar products. These monuments currently lack proper information system for guiding a tourist. Absence of any qualified tourist guides at the site compounds the problem further. This project investigates the feasibility of making the space more interactive for the tourist through proper digital information design and installations at places. Along with this, illumination and sound are also being used to narrate the history of these ancient monuments so that tourists get a flavor of the medieval past. Most importantly, all these digital interventions are low cost and done with easily available throw-away materials and can be replicated for other monuments as well.

Keywords: interaction, well, building, context

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Authors: María Molinos-Senante, Giulia Romano

Abstract:

This paper aims at investigating the effect of ownership in the efficiency assessment of municipal solid waste management. In doing so, the Data Envelopment Analysis meta-frontier approach integrating unsorted waste as undesirable output was applied. Three different clusters of municipalities have been created on the basis of the ownership type of municipal waste operators. In the second stage of analysis, the paper investigates factors affecting efficiency, in order to provide an outlook of levers to be used by policy and decision makers to improve efficiency, taking into account different management models in force. Results show that public waste management firms have better performance than mixed and private ones since their efficiency scores are significantly larger. Moreover, it has been demonstrated that the efficiency of waste management firms is statistically influenced by the age of population, population served, municipal size, population density and tourism rate. It evidences the importance of economies of scale on the cost efficiency of waste management. This issue is relevant for policymakers to define and implement policies aimed to improve the long-term sustainability of waste management in municipalities.

Keywords: data envelopment analysis, efficiency, municipal solid waste, ownership, undesirable output

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Authors: Shivam Dwivedi, Sumit Prakash Gupta, Durga Toshniwal

Abstract:

It is a challenging task in today’s date to keep defence forces in the highest state of combat readiness with budgetary constraints. A huge amount of time and money is squandered in the unnecessary and expensive traditional maintenance activities. To overcome this limitation Defence Intelligent Mission Readiness and Maintenance Scheduling System has been proposed, which ameliorates the maintenance system by diagnosing the condition and predicting the maintenance requirements. Based on new data mining algorithms, this system intelligently optimises mission readiness for imminent operations and maintenance scheduling in repair echelons. With modified data mining algorithms such as Weighted Feature Ranking Genetic Algorithm and SVM-Random Forest Linear ensemble, it improves the reliability, availability and safety, alongside reducing maintenance cost and Equipment Out of Action (EOA) time. The results clearly conclude that the introduced algorithms have an edge over the conventional data mining algorithms. The system utilizing the intelligent condition-based maintenance approach improves the operational and maintenance decision strategy of the defence force.

Keywords: condition based maintenance, data mining, defence maintenance, ensemble, genetic algorithms, maintenance scheduling, mission capability

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Authors: M. Zaitoun, S. Cumming, A. Purcell

Abstract:

This study aims to determine if audiologists' experience characteristics in ABR (Auditory Brainstem Response) reading is associated with their performance in interpreting ABR results. Fifteen ABR traces with varying degrees of hearing level were presented twice, making a total of 30. Audiologists were asked to determine the hearing threshold for each of the cases after completing a brief survey regarding their experience and training in ABR administration. Sixty-one audiologists completed all tasks. Correlations between audiologists’ performance measures and experience variables suggested significant associations (p < 0.05) between training period in ABR testing and audiologists’ performance in terms of both sensitivity and accuracy. In addition, the number of years conducting ABR testing correlated with specificity. No other correlations approached significance. While there are relatively few significant correlations between ABR performance and experience, accuracy in ABR reading is associated with audiologists’ length of experience and period of training. To improve audiologists’ performance in reading ABR results, an emphasis on the importance of training should be raised and standardized levels and period for audiologists training in ABR testing should also be set.

Keywords: ABR, audiology, performance, training, experience

Procedia PDF Downloads 166

Authors: Christopher Oyediran, Nicola Ubayasiri, Christopher Gough

Abstract:

Splenic artery aneurysms are often clinically occult, occasionally identified incidentally with imaging. The pathogenesis of aneurysms is complex, but certain factors are thought to contribute to their development. Given the potential fatal complications of rupture, a high index of suspicion is required to make an early diagnosis. We present a case of a 36-year-old female with a history of endometriosis and multiple sclerosis who presented to the Emergency Department with sudden onset epigastric pain and collapse. On arrival, she was pale and clammy with profound tachycardia and hypotension. An ultrasound done in the resuscitation department revealed abdominal free fluid. She was resuscitated with blood and transferred for emergent laparotomy. Laparotomy revealed massive haemoperitoneum from the spleen. She underwent emergency splenectomy and inspection of the spleen revealed a splenic artery aneurysm. She received our massive transfusion protocol followed by a short stay on ITU, making a good post-operative recovery and was discharged home a week later.

Keywords: aneurysm, human chorionic gonadotrophin (hCG), resuscitation, laparotomy

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Authors: Krishnakant Bhole, Neerakallu D. Shivakumar, Shakti Singh Chauhan, Sanketh Tonannavar, Rajath S

Abstract:

Synthesis of natural-based composite materials is state of the art. This work discusses the preparation and characterization of cellulose nanofibers (CNF) extracted from the bamboo pulp using TEMPO-oxidization and high-pressure homogenization methods. Bio-composites are prepared using synthesized CNF and bamboo particles. Nanocellulose prepared is characterized using SEM and XRD for morphological and crystallinity analysis, and the formation of fibers at the nano level is ensured. Composite specimens are fabricated using these natural sources and subjected to tensile and flexural tests to characterize the mechanical properties such as modulus of elasticity (MOE), modulus of rupture (MOR), and interfacial strength. Further, synthesized nanocellulose is used as a binding agent to prepare particleboards using various natural sources like bamboo, areca nut, and banana in the form of fibers. From the results, it can be inferred that nanocellulose prepared from bamboo pulp acts as a binding agent for making bio-composites. Hence, the concept of using matrix and reinforcement derived from natural sources can be used to prepare green composites that are highly degradable.

Keywords: nanocellulose, biocomposite, CNF, bamboo

Procedia PDF Downloads 87