Search results for: never events

Authors: Al-Amin, Huanjun Jiang, Anayat Ali

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Reinforced concrete frames (RC), especially Ordinary RC frames, are prone to structural failures/collapse during seismic events, leading to a large proportion of debris from the structures, which obstructs adjacent areas, including streets. These blocked areas severely impede post-earthquake resilience. This study uses computational simulation (FEM) to investigate the amount of debris generated by the seismic collapse of an ordinary reinforced concrete moment frame building and its effects on the adjacent pedestrian and road network. A three-story ordinary reinforced concrete frame building, primarily designed for gravity load and earthquake resistance, was selected for analysis. Sixteen different ground motions were applied and scaled up until the total collapse of the tested building to evaluate the failure mode under various seismic events. Four types of collapse direction were identified through the analysis, namely aligned (positive and negative) and skewed (positive and negative), with aligned collapse being more predominant than skewed cases. The amount and distribution of debris around the collapsed building were assessed to investigate the interaction between collapsed buildings and adjacent street networks. An interaction was established between a building that collapsed in an aligned direction and the adjacent pedestrian walkway and narrow street located in an unplanned old city. The FEM model was validated against an existing shaking table test. The presented results can be utilized to simulate the interdependency between the debris generated from the collapse of seismic-prone buildings and the resilience of street networks. These findings provide insights for better disaster planning and resilient infrastructure development in earthquake-prone regions.

Keywords: building collapse, earthquake-induced debris, ORC moment resisting frame, street network

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Authors: Jean Berger, Mohamed Barkaoui

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Discrete search path planning in time-constrained uncertain environment relying upon imperfect sensors is known to be hard, and current problem-solving techniques proposed so far to compute near real-time efficient path plans are mainly bounded to provide a few move solutions. A new information-theoretic –based open-loop decision model explicitly incorporating false alarm sensor readings, to solve a single agent military logistics search-and-delivery path planning problem with anticipated feedback is presented. The decision model consists in minimizing expected entropy considering anticipated possible observation outcomes over a given time horizon. The model captures uncertainty associated with observation events for all possible scenarios. Entropy represents a measure of uncertainty about the searched target location. Feedback information resulting from possible sensor observations outcomes along the projected path plan is exploited to update anticipated unit target occupancy beliefs. For the first time, a compact belief update formulation is generalized to explicitly include false positive observation events that may occur during plan execution. A novel genetic algorithm is then proposed to efficiently solve search path planning, providing near-optimal solutions for practical realistic problem instances. Given the run-time performance of the algorithm, natural extension to a closed-loop environment to progressively integrate real visit outcomes on a rolling time horizon can be easily envisioned. Computational results show the value of the approach in comparison to alternate heuristics.

Keywords: search path planning, false alarm, search-and-delivery, entropy, genetic algorithm

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Authors: Tugba Altin

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In an era marked by pronounced climate change consequences, communities are observed to confront traumatic events that yield both tangible and intangible repercussions. Such events not only cause discernible damage to the landscape but also deeply affect the intangible aspects, including emotional distress and disruptions to cultural landscapes. The Lytton Creek Fire of 2021 serves as a case in point. Beyond the visible destruction, the less overt but profoundly impactful disturbance to place attachment (PA) is scrutinized. PA, representing the emotional and cognitive bonds individuals establish with their environments, is crucial for understanding how such events impact cultural identity and connection to the land. The study underscores the significance of addressing both tangible and intangible traumas for holistic community recovery. As communities renegotiate their affiliations with altered environments, the cultural landscape emerges as instrumental in shaping place-based identities. This renewed understanding is pivotal for reshaping adaptation planning. The research advocates for adaptation strategies rooted in the lived experiences and testimonies of the affected populations. By incorporating both the tangible and intangible facets of trauma, planning efforts are suggested to be more culturally attuned and emotionally insightful, fostering true resonance with the affected communities. Through such a comprehensive lens, this study contributes enriching the climate change discourse, emphasizing the intertwined nature of tangible recovery and the imperative of emotional and cultural healing after environmental disasters. Following the pronounced aftermath of the Lytton Creek Fire in 2021, research aims to deeply understand its impact on place attachment (PA), encompassing the emotional and cognitive bonds individuals form with their environments. The interpretive phenomenological approach, enriched by a hermeneutic framework, is adopted, emphasizing the experiences of the Lytton community and co-researchers. Phenomenology informed the understanding of 'place' as the focal point of attachment, providing insights into its formation and evolution after traumatic events. Data collection departs from conventional methods. Instead of traditional interviews, walking audio sessions and photo elicitation methods are utilized. These allow co-researchers to immerse themselves in the environment, re-experience, and articulate memories and feelings in real-time. Walking audio facilitates reflections on spatial narratives post-trauma, while photo voices captured intangible emotions, enabling the visualization of place-based experiences. The analysis is collaborative, ensuring the co-researchers' experiences and interpretations are central. Emphasizing their agency in knowledge production, the process is rigorous, facilitated by the harmonious blend of interpretive phenomenology and hermeneutic insights. The findings underscore the need for adaptation and recovery efforts to address emotional traumas alongside tangible damages. By exploring PA post-disaster, the research not only fills a significant gap but advocates for an inclusive approach to community recovery. Furthermore, the participatory methodologies employed challenge traditional research paradigms, heralding potential shifts in qualitative research norms.

Keywords: wildfire recovery, place attachment, trauma recovery, cultural landscape, visual methodologies

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Authors: Lauren A. Bailey, Amber R. Childs, Nicola C. James, Murray I. Duncan, Alexander Winkler, Warren M. Potts

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For the persistence of fished populations in the Anthropocene, it is critical to predict how fished populations will respond to the coupled threats of exploitation and climate change for adaptive management. The resilience of fished populations will depend on their capacity for physiological plasticity and acclimatization in response to environmental shifts. However, there is evidence for the selection of physiological traits by capture fisheries. Hence, fish populations may have a limited scope for the rapid expansion of their tolerance ranges or physiological adaptation under fishing pressures. To determine the physiological vulnerability of fished populations in the Anthropocene, the metabolic performance was compared between a fished and spatially protected Chrysoblephus laticeps population in response to thermal variability. Individual aerobic scope phenotypes were quantified using intermittent flow respirometry by comparing changes in energy expenditure of each individual at ecologically relevant temperatures, mimicking variability experienced as a result of upwelling and downwelling events. The proportion of high and low-performance individuals were compared between the fished and spatially protected population. The fished population had limited aerobic scope phenotype diversity and fewer high-performance phenotypes, resulting in a significantly lower aerobic scope curve across low (10 °C) and high (24 °C) thermal treatments. The performance of fished populations may be compromised with predicted future increases in cold upwelling events. This requires the conservation of the physiologically fittest individuals in spatially protected areas, which can recruit into nearby fished areas, as a climate resilience tool.

Keywords: climate change, fish physiology, metabolic shifts, over-fishing, respirometry

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Authors: Pier Andrea Marras, Daniela Lima, Pedro Matos Soares, Rita Maria Cardoso, Daniela Medas, Elisabetta Dore, Giovanni De Giudici

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Climate change effects on the hydrologic cycle are the main concern for the evaluation of water management strategies. Climate models project scenarios of precipitation changes in the future, considering greenhouse emissions. In this study, the EURO-CORDEX (European Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment) climate models were first evaluated in a Mediterranean island (Sardinia) against observed precipitation for a historical reference period (1976-2005). A weighted multi-model ensemble (ENS) was built, weighting the single models based on their ability to reproduce observed rainfall. Future projections (2071-2100) were carried out using the 8.5 RCP emissions scenario to evaluate changes in precipitations. ENS was then used as climate forcing for the SWAT model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool), with the aim to assess the consequences of such projected changes on streamflow and runoff of two small catchments located in the South-West Sardinia. Results showed that a decrease of mean rainfall values, up to -25 % at yearly scale, is expected for the future, along with an increase of extreme precipitation events. Particularly in the eastern and southern areas, extreme events are projected to increase by 30%. Such changes reflect on the hydrologic cycle with a decrease of mean streamflow and runoff, except in spring, when runoff is projected to increase by 20-30%. These results stress that the Mediterranean is a hotspot for climate change, and the use of model tools can provide very useful information to adopt water and land management strategies to deal with such changes.

Keywords: EURO-CORDEX, climate change, hydrology, SWAT model, Sardinia, multi-model ensemble

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Authors: Hsin-Yu Lin, Ching-Hsia Hung

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Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) is characterized by a complete or partial obstruction of the upper airway during sleep. The vulnerable sites of upper airway collapses are consequences of sleep state-dependent reductions in tone in specific pharyngeal dilators. Clinical examinations reveal multilevel collapses of the upper airway among the patients with OSA. Therefore, an anatomically-based oropharyngeal rehabilitation should comprise a multilevel approach, including retropalatal, retroglossal, hypopharyngeal, temporomandibular, and facial levels, all of which involve different muscle groups and contribute to multifunctional interaction and coordination, such as swallowing, breathing, and phonation. The purpose of the study was to exam the effects of this rehabilitation program with a multilevel approach. In this study, fifteen subjects with newly diagnosed moderate or severe OSA (Apnea-Hypopnea-Index≥15) were randomized into an intervention group and control group. The intervention group (N=8) underwent a 12-week-intervention of a hospital-based rehabilitation program, while the control group (N=7) was kept on the waiting list. The 12-week-intervention comprised an anatomically based multilevel approach. The primary outcome was Polysomnography (PSG) data, and the secondary outcome was oropharyngeal and respiratory muscle function. In the intervention group, Apnea-Hypopnea-Index significantly improved (46.96±19.45 versus 32.78±10.78 events/h, p=0.017) compared with control group (35.77±17.49 versus 42.96±17.32 events/h, p=0.043). While the control group remained no change, the intervention group demonstrated other PSG outcomes significantly improvement, including arousal index (46.04±18.9 versus 32.98±8.35/h, p=0.035), mean SpO2 (92.88±2.1 versus 94.13±1.46%, p=0.039). Besides, the intervention group demonstrated significant improvement in oropharyngeal and respiratory muscle function compared to the control group. This anatomically-based oropharyngeal rehabilitation with a multilevel approach can be proven as a non-invasive therapy for patients with OSA.

Keywords: obstructive sleep apnea, upper airway, oropharyngeal rehabilitation, multilevel approach

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Authors: A. A. Purohit, M. M. Vaidya, M. D. Kudale

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Among the various developing countries in the world like China, Malaysia, Korea etc., India is also developing its infrastructures in the form of Road/Rail/Airports and Waterborne facilities at an exponential rate. Mumbai, the financial epicenter of India is overcrowded and to relieve the pressure of congestion, Navi Mumbai suburb is being developed on the east bank of Thane creek near Mumbai. The government due to limited space at existing Mumbai Airports (domestic and international) to cater for the future demand of airborne traffic, proposes to build a new international airport near Panvel at Navi Mumbai. Considering the precedence of extreme rainfall on 26^th July 2005 and nearby townships being in a low-lying area, wherein new airport is proposed, it is inevitable to study this complex confluence area from a hydrodynamic consideration under both tidal and extreme events (predicted discharge hydrographs), to avoid inundation of the surrounding due to the proposed airport reclamation (1160 hectares) and to determine the safe grade elevation (SGE). The model studies conducted using the application of unstructured mesh to simulate the Panvel estuarine area (93 km²), calibration, validation of a model for hydraulic field measurements and determine the maxima water levels around the airport for various extreme hydrodynamic events, namely the simultaneous occurrence of highest tide from the Arabian Sea and peak flood discharges (Probable Maximum Precipitation and 26^th July 2005) from five rivers, the Gadhi, Kalundri, Taloja, Kasadi and Ulwe, meeting at the proposed airport area revealed that: (a) The Ulwe River flowing beneath the proposed airport needs to be diverted. The 120m wide proposed Ulwe diversion channel having a wider base width of 200 m at SH-54 Bridge on the Ulwe River along with the removal of the existing bund in Moha Creek is inevitable to keep the SGE of the airport to a minimum. (b) The clear waterway of 80 m at SH-54 Bridge (Ulwe River) and 120 m at Amra Marg Bridge near Moha Creek is also essential for the Ulwe diversion and (c) The river bank protection works on the right bank of Gadhi River between the NH-4B and SH-54 bridges as well as upstream of the Ulwe River diversion channel are essential to avoid inundation of low lying areas. The maxima water levels predicted around the airport keeps SGE to a minimum of 11m with respect to Chart datum of Ulwe Bundar and thus development is not only technologically-economically feasible but also sustainable. The unstructured mesh modeling is a promising tool to simulate complex extreme hydrodynamic events and provides a reliable solution to evolve optimal SGE of airport.

Keywords: airport, hydrodynamics, safe grade elevation, tides

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Authors: Priya Varma, Denis John McKeown

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Psychological time, unlike physical time, is believed to be ‘compressive’ in the sense that the mental representations of a series of events may be internally arranged with ever decreasing inter-event spacing (looking back from the most recently encoded event). If this is true, the record within immediate memory of recent events is severely temporally distorted. Although this notion of temporal distortion of the memory record is captured within some theoretical accounts of human forgetting, notably temporal distinctiveness accounts, the way in which the fundamental nature of the distortion underpins memory and forgetting broadly is barely recognised or at least directly investigated. Our intention here was to manipulate the spacing of items for recall in order to ‘reverse’ this supposed natural compression within the encoding of the items. In Experiment 1 three schedules of presentation (expanding, contracting and fixed irregular temporal spacing) were created using logarithmic spacing of the words for both free and serial recall conditions. The results of recall of lists of 7 words showed statistically significant benefits of temporal isolation, and more excitingly the contracting word series (which we may think of as reversing the natural compression within the mental representation of the word list) showed best performance. Experiment 2 tested for effects of active verbal rehearsal in the recall task; this reduced but did not remove the benefits of our temporal scheduling manipulation. Finally, a third experiment used the same design but with Chinese characters as memoranda, in a further attempt to subvert possible verbal maintenance of items. One change to the design here was to introduce a probe item following the sequence of items and record response times to this probe. Together the outcomes of the experiments broadly support the notion of temporal compression within immediate memory.

Keywords: memory, serial position curves, temporal isolation, temporal schedules

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Authors: Mehrdad Sheikhvatan, Mohammad Ali Boroumand, Mehrdad Behmanesh, Shayan Ziaee

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Contradictory results have been obtained regarding the role of integrin, beta 3 (ITGB3) gene polymorphisms in occurrence of acute myocardial infarction (MI) in patients with coronary artery disease (CAD). Hence, we aimed to assess the association between 1565C/T polymorphism of ITGB3 gene and increased risk for acute MI in patients who suffered premature CAD in Iranian population. Our prospective study included 1000 patients (492 men and 508 women aged 21 to 55 years) referred to Tehran Heart center during a period of four years from 2008 to 2011 with the final diagnosis of premature CAD and classified into two groups with history of MI (n = 461) and without of MI (n = 539). The polymorphism variants were determined by PCR-RFLP technique by entering 10% of randomized samples and then genotyping of the polymorphism was also conducted by High Resolution Melting (HRM) method. Among study samples, 640 were followed with a median follow-up time 45.74 months for determining association of long-term major adverse cardiac events (MACE) and genotypes of polymorphisms. There was no significant difference in the frequency of 1565C/T polymorphism between the MI and non-MI groups. The frequency of wild genotype was 69.2% and 72.2%, the frequency of homozygous genotype was 21.3% and 18.4%, and the frequency of mutant genotype was 9.5% and 9.5%, respectively (p=0.505). Results were also similar when adjusted for covariates in a multivariate logistic regression model. No significant difference was also found in total-MACE free survival rate between the patients with different genotypes of 1565C/T polymorphism in both MI and non-MI group. The carriage of the 1565C/T polymorphism of ITGB3 gene seems unlikely to be a significant risk factor for the development of MI in Iranian patients with premature CAD. The presence of this ITGB3 gene polymorphism may not also predict long-term cardiac events.

Keywords: coronary artery disease, myocardial infarction, gene, integrin, beta 3, polymorphism

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Authors: Nagwa E. Abd Elazim, Maha S. El-naggar, Rania H. Mohamed, Sara M. Awad

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Background: Radiodermatitis is a common side effect of radiation therapy for breast cancer. However, there is no current consensus about effective standard therapy for the prevention and management of radiation dermatitis. Topical ectoine has demonstrated efficacy in the treatment of atopic dermatitis owing to its anti-inflammatory activity. Objective: To evaluate the efficacy of topical ectoine in comparison to traditional topical dexpanthenol treatment in the management of acute radiodermatitis in breast cancer patients undergoing adjuvant radiotherapy. Methods: Fifty patients were randomized to use either dexpanthenol 0.5% cream (25 patients), or ectoin 7% cream (25 patients), applied twice daily to the irradiated area during the radiation period and continued for 2 weeks after cessation of radiotherapy. Assessment of radiation skin toxicity using Common Terminology Criteria of Adverse Events (CTCAE) v4.0, radiation-associated symptoms, and adverse events were undertaken weekly during radiotherapy and 2 weeks after the end of radiotherapy. Results: Topical ectoine showed some clinical benefit over dexpanthenol, as shown by delayed time to onset (at week 3 versus week 2, respectively) and larger number of patients who reached grade 0 at the end of treatment (64% vs. 48%, respectively). The clinical symptoms of pain (p = 0.003) and itching (p = 0.001) attributable to radiation were less pronounced with ectoine than with dexpanthenol. Burning and hyperpigmentation were the most common side effects with ectoine. However, no significant difference between dexpanthenol and ectoine treatments was found in any of the side effects (p = 0.1). Conclusion: Ectoin was overall more effective in improving radiation dermatitis than topical dexpanthenol in breast cancer patients. Ectoin could be proposed as a preventive or curative treatment for patients undergoing postoperative irradiation for breast cancer. Further clinical studies with a larger number of patients are recommended for the confirmation of these preliminary results.

Keywords: breast cancer, dexapanthenol, ectoin, radiation dermatitis

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Authors: Mingaile Jurkute, Vilnius University

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The memory of the Lithuanian partisan war (1944-1953) underwent extremely dramatic transformations. During this war, the image of the resistance and a partisan was one of the key elements of Lithuanian identity. Its importance is evidenced by the extremely large legacy of songs about partisans, no other topic has collected so much folklore in Lithuania. In the Soviet years, this resistance was practically forced to be forgotten. Terror and Soviet laws have forced people to stop talking about the events, even in the family circle. In addition, the Soviets created their own propaganda story, reinterpreting the Lithuanian partisan war, presenting partisans as bandits who brutally tortured and murdered locals. But even in the Soviet years, the memory could neither be completely suppressed, nor completely transformed into wishful shape. The analysis of fiction and cinema shows that the traumatic memory of real events rushed to the surface, thus transforming the very propagandistic narrative. After the restoration of the Republic of Lithuania in 1990, the Lithuanian partisan war was gradually returned to the central place of Lithuanian history. After 2014 the nationalist heroic narrative about Lithuanian partisans became the central narrative of modern Lithuanian history. Nevertheless, interviews I conducted in Lithuanian villages reveal that the memory of local communities and families preserves quite different experiences that do not fit into neither the Soviet narrative nor the heroic one. Such experiences include, for example, partisan violence against local families. This paper is about the efforts of two political ideologies (the Soviet and the Lithuanian patriotic) to use the history of the Lithuanian partisans for their own needs, and the attempts of small communities (mostly families) to resist these efforts. The research reveals that family memory, even when opposed to aggressive state memory policies, can preserve counter-narratives by exploiting unexpected objects beyond the control of the state, such as nature and wildlife. Basically, the paper analyses the limits of the instrumentalization of memory, even by extremely aggressive political regimes.

Keywords: collective memory, post-memory, violence, military conflict, family memory

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Authors: Xenia I. Loizidou, Anthi Gavriel, Demetra Petsa

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The tourism industry is a significant contributor to Cyprus's Gross Domestic Product. However, as the main tourism product is 'sun and sea', the industry is significantly unsustainable, with the majority of tourists (approx. 90%) concentrated in coastal areas over a short period of time, causing negative environmental, social, and economic impacts. The newly established Cypriot Deputy Ministry of Tourism aims to diversify the Cypriot tourism industry by focusing on the development of niche tourism products that will elongate the touristic season and divert visitors to inland mountainous and rural areas. In this respect, conference and event tourism is an ideal product for development. The current paper presents the results of fieldwork carried out between January and March 2020 in Cyprus, with key stakeholders within the conference and event tourism sector. The work consisted of a survey and semi-structured interviews to determine the current level of sustainability within the conference tourism sector, the main barriers to the sector's development, as well as key stakeholder insights and suggestions for measures to improve the sector's sustainability. The results suggest that there is a general lack of understanding of the negative economic, environmental and social impacts associated with the organization of conventional conferences and events, compared to the positive impacts of sustainable conferences/events. There also seems to be a lack of awareness of actions that can be taken to make the conference and event sector more sustainable. Incentives, marketing, branding, and training are identified as some of the effective means to improve the sustainability of the Cypriot conference and event sector, as is the development of country-wide sustainability policy and a review and enforcement of national waste management legislation. The research outputs will be utilized for the development of targeted toolkits, training, and awareness-raising activities that will drive Cyprus towards becoming an international sustainable tourism destination.

Keywords: conference, event, sustainability, tourism

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Authors: Merly Patiño Villanueva, Dubys Villarreal Torres, Eduardo Salazar Araujo, Lezly Ramos Macedo

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The concept of sustainability has been influencing business thinking from the perspective of various economic sectors and their environment, looking for concerns related to the risks associated with the indiscriminate consumption of the planet's resources, which have been widely studied and exposed by different public and private organizations. Tourism is not outsider to this reality; therefore, the concept of sustainable tourism evolves towards the integral management of resources, attending the needs of tourists, host communities and service providers, protecting ecosystems and assuring the conservation of the environment and its biodiversity. Considering the above, the purpose of this paper is to identify trends aimed at promoting sustainable tourism in the destinations of Barranquilla (Colombia) and Nayarit (Mexico). This study is part of the realistic epistemological paradigm, based on the existence of a specific environment for the development of tourism activity and the best sustainability practices associated with this industry, which can be observed and studied, therefore, this research contemplates qualitative research techniques such as the focus group and the interview, applied to 8 experts who are part of the value chain of the sector under study, added to a documentary review taken from the scientific databases Wos and Scopus, as well as statistical information published by official bodies. The data obtained were processed with the qualitative analysis software N-VIVO version 13. As a result, trends and actions to promote tourism are identified for the positioning of the cities of Barranquilla (Colombia) and Nayarit (Mexico) as sustainable destinations: first, the recovery of green areas and environmental spaces, as well as the realization of cultural events; promotion and encouragement of the creative industry and finally the realization of international events. It is concluded that both cities develop activities, projects and investments of public initiative, aimed at positioning them as sustainable tourist destinations.

Keywords: marketing, sustainability, tourism management, policies

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Authors: Mohammadamin Hashemi, Mohammadreza Kashizadeh

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Droughts pose a significant threat to sustainable water resource management, agriculture, and socioeconomic sectors, particularly in the field of climate change. This study investigates drought simulation using rainfall-runoff modelling in the Cuneo district, Italy, over the past 60-year period. The study leverages the TUW model, a lumped conceptual rainfall-runoff model with a semi-distributed operation capability. Similar in structure to the widely used Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV) model, the TUW model operates on daily timesteps for input and output data specific to each catchment. It incorporates essential routines for snow accumulation and melting, soil moisture storage, and streamflow generation. Multiple catchments' discharge data within the Cuneo district form the basis for thorough model calibration employing the Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE) metric. A crucial metric for reliable drought analysis is one that can accurately represent low-flow events during drought periods. This ensures that the model provides a realistic picture of water availability during these critical times. Subsequent validation of monthly discharge simulations thoroughly evaluates overall model performance. Beyond model development, the investigation delves into drought analysis using the robust Standardized Runoff Index (SRI). This index allows for precise characterization of drought occurrences within the study area. A meticulous comparison of observed and simulated discharge data is conducted, with particular focus on low-flow events that characterize droughts. Additionally, the study explores the complex interplay between land characteristics (e.g., soil type, vegetation cover) and climate variables (e.g., precipitation, temperature) that influence the severity and duration of hydrological droughts. The study's findings demonstrate successful calibration of the TUW model across most catchments, achieving commendable model efficiency. Comparative analysis between simulated and observed discharge data reveals significant agreement, especially during critical low-flow periods. This agreement is further supported by the Pareto coefficient, a statistical measure of goodness-of-fit. The drought analysis provides critical insights into the duration, intensity, and severity of drought events within the Cuneo district. This newfound understanding of spatial and temporal drought dynamics offers valuable information for water resource management strategies and drought mitigation efforts. This research deepens our understanding of drought dynamics in the Cuneo region. Future research directions include refining hydrological modelling techniques and exploring future drought projections under various climate change scenarios.

Keywords: hydrologic extremes, hydrological drought, hydrological modelling, machine learning, rainfall-runoff modelling

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Authors: Vivek Mahadev, Manoj Kumar, Neelu Mathur, Brahm Dutt Pandey

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Perimeter guarding and protection of critical installations require prompt intrusion detection and assessment to take effective countermeasures. Currently, visual and electronic surveillance are the primary methods used for perimeter guarding. These methods can be costly and complicated, requiring careful planning according to the location and terrain. Moreover, these methods often struggle to detect stealthy and camouflaged insurgents. The object of the present work is to devise a surveillance technique using seismic sensors that overcomes the limitations of existing systems. The aim is to improve intrusion detection, assessment, and characterization by utilizing seismic sensors. Most of the similar systems have only two types of intrusion detection capability viz., human or vehicle. In our work we could even categorize further to identify types of intrusion activity such as walking, running, group walking, fence jumping, tunnel digging and vehicular movements. A virtual fence of 60 meters at GCNEP, Bahadurgarh, Haryana, India, was created by installing four underground geophones at a distance of 15 meters each. The signals received from these geophones are then processed to find unique seismic signatures called features. Various feature optimization and selection methodologies, such as LightGBM, Boruta, Random Forest, Logistics, Recursive Feature Elimination, Chi-2 and Pearson Ratio were used to identify the best features for training the machine learning models. The trained models were developed using algorithms such as supervised support vector machine (SVM) classifier, kNN, Decision Tree, Logistic Regression, Naïve Bayes, and Artificial Neural Networks. These models were then used to predict the category of events, employing weighted ensemble voting to analyze and combine their results. The models were trained with 1940 training events and results were evaluated with 831 test events. It was observed that using the weighted ensemble voting increased the efficiency of predictions. In this study we successfully developed and deployed the virtual fence using geophones. Since these sensors are passive, do not radiate any energy and are installed underground, it is impossible for intruders to locate and nullify them. Their flexibility, quick and easy installation, low costs, hidden deployment and unattended surveillance make such systems especially suitable for critical installations and remote facilities with difficult terrain. This work demonstrates the potential of utilizing seismic sensors for creating better perimeter guarding and protection systems using multiple machine learning models in weighted ensemble voting. In this study the virtual fence achieved an intruder detection efficiency of over 97%.

Keywords: geophone, seismic perimeter surveillance, machine learning, weighted ensemble method

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Authors: Kehinde Joseph Awosan, Balarabe Adami Isah, Edzu Usman Yunusa, Sarafadeen Adeniyi Arisegi, Izuchukwu Obasi, Oluchi Solomon-Anucha

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Background: Metabolic syndrome (MetS) is prevalent in patients with diabetes mellitus and a significant risk for major cardiovascular events. Identifying its burden and peculiarities is crucial to preventing complications among those at risk. Aim: This study was conducted to determine the prevalence and predictors of metabolic syndrome among diabetes clinic attendees in Sokoto, Nigeria. Materials and Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted among 365 patients with type 2 diabetes attending the diabetes clinic of Specialist Hospital, Sokoto, Nigeria. A structured questionnaire was used to obtain data on the respondents’ socio-demographic variables, treatment history, and lifestyle. Blood pressure and anthropometric measurements (including weight, height, and waist circumference) were done for the patients. Likewise, biochemical assessment (including fasting plasma glucose, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-c), and triglyceride (TG) was done. Metabolic syndrome was defined according to the National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel III (NCEP ATP III). Data were analyzed using the IBM Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) version 25. Results: The ages of the patients ranged from 30 to 78 (mean = 50.9 ±11.7) years. The overall prevalence of MetS was 57.3%, with a higher prevalence in females (68.1%) than males (43.0%). The most common components of MetS observed were hypertension (69.2%), and elevated fasting plasma glucose (65.7%); while the predictors of MetS were age > 50 years (OR 6.960, 95% CI: 3.836-12.628, p < 0.001), female sex (OR 2.300, 95% CI: 1.355-3.903, p = 0.002), physical activity (OR 0.214, 95% CI: 0.126-0.363, p < 0.001), and overweight/obesity (OR 3.356, 95% CI: 1.838-6.127, p < 0.001). Conclusion: Metabolic syndrome is prevalent among patients with type 2 diabetes in Sokoto, Nigeria, and the predictors were age > 50 years, female sex, physical activity, and overweight/obesity. Diabetes care providers should screen their patients for MetS to prevent adverse cardiovascular events.

Keywords: prevalence, predictors, metabolic syndrome, diabetes

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Authors: Lauren Dhugga, Meena Parameswaran, David Blundell, Abbas Khushnood

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Context: A multidisciplinary weekly safety briefing was implemented at the Paediatric Cardiothoracic Unit at the Freeman Hospital in Newcastle-upon-Tyne. It is a tertiary referral centre with a quarternary cardiac paediatric intensive care unit and provides complexed care including heart and lung transplants, mechanical support and advanced heart failure assessment. Aim: The aim of this briefing is to provide a structured platform of communication, in an effort to improve efficiency, safety, and patient care. Problem: The paediatric cardiothoracic unit is made up of a vast multidisciplinary team including doctors, intensivists, anaesthetists, surgeons, specialist nurses, echocardiogram technicians, physiotherapists, psychologists, dentists, and dietitians. It provides care for children with congenital and acquired cardiac disease and is one of only two units in the UK to offer paediatric heart transplant. The complexity of cases means that there can be many teams involved in providing care to each patient, and frequent movement of children between ward, high dependency, and intensive care areas. Currently, there is no structured forum for communicating important information across the department, for example, staffing shortages, prescribing errors and significant events. Strategy: An initial survey questioning the need for better communication found 90% of respondents agreed that they could think of an incident that had occurred due to ineffective communication, and 85% felt that incident could have been avoided had there been a better form of communication. Lastly, 80% of respondents felt that a weekly 60 second safety briefing would be beneficial to improve communication within our multidisciplinary team. Based on those promising results, a weekly 60 second safety briefing was implemented to be conducted on a Monday morning. The safety briefing covered four key areas (SAFE): staffing, awareness, fix and events. This was to highlight any staffing gaps, any incident reports to be learned from, any issues that required fixing and any events including teachings for the week ahead. The teams were encouraged to email suggestions or issues to be raised for the week or to approach in person with information to add. The safety briefing was implemented using change theory. Effect: The safety briefing has been trialled over 6 weeks and has received a good buy in from staff across specialties. The aim is to embed this safety briefing into a weekly meeting using the PDSA cycle. There will be a second survey in one month to assess the efficacy of the safety briefing and to continue to improve the delivery of information. The project will be presented at the next clinical governance briefing to attract wider feedback and input from across the trust. Lessons: The briefing displays promise as a tool to improve vigilance and communication in a busy multi-disciplinary unit. We have learned about how to implement quality improvement and about the culture of our hospital - how hierarchy influences change. We demonstrate how to implement change through a grassroots process, using a junior led briefing to improve the efficiency, safety, and communication in the workplace.

Keywords: briefing, communication, safety, team

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Authors: Sofia Nilsson, Alicia Ohlsson, Linda-Marie Lundqvist, Aida Alvinius, Peder Hyllengren, Gerry Larsson

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In irregular warfare contexts, military personnel are often presented with morally ambiguous situations where they are aware of the morally correct choice but may feel prevented to follow through with it due to organizational demands. Moral stress and/or injury can be the outcome of the individual’s experienced dissonance. These types of challenges put a large demand on the individual to manage their own emotions and the emotions of others, particularly in the case of a leader. Both the ability and inability for emotional regulation can result in different combinations of short and long term reactions after morally stressful events, which can be either positive or negative. Our study analyzed the combination of these reactions based upon the types of morally challenging events that were described by the subjects. 1)What institutionalized norms concerning emotion regulation are favorable in short-and long-term perspectives after a morally stressful event? 2)What individual emotion-focused coping strategies are favorable in short-and long-perspectives after a morally stressful? To address these questions, we conducted a quantitative study in military contexts in Sweden and Norway on upcoming or current military officers (n=331). We tested a theoretical model built upon a recently developed qualitative study. The data was analyzed using factor analysis, multiple regression analysis and subgroup analyses. The results indicated that an individual’s restriction of emotion in order to achieve an organizational goal, which results in emotional dissonance, can be an effective short term strategy for both the individual and the organization; however, it appears to be unfavorable in a long-term perspective which can result in negative reactions. Our results are intriguing because they showed an increased percentage of reported negative long term reactions (13%), which indicated PTSD-related symptoms in comparison to previous Swedish studies which indicated lower PTSD symptomology.

Keywords: emotion culture, emotion coping, emotion management, military

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Authors: Federica Laface, Cristina Pedà, Francesco Longo, Francesca de Domenico, Riccardo Minichino, Pierpaolo Consoli, Pietro Battaglia, Silvestro Greco, Teresa Romeo

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Plastics pollution represents one of the most important threats to marine biodiversity. In the last decades, different species are investigated to evaluate the extent of the plastic ingestion phenomenon. Even if the cephalopods play an important role in the food chain, they are still poorly studied. The aim of this research was to investigate the plastic ingestion in two commercial cephalopod species from the southern Tyrrhenian Sea: the common octopus, Octopus vulgaris (n=6; mean mantle length ML 10.7 ± 1.8) and the common cuttlefish, Sepia officinalis (n=13; mean ML 13.2 ± 1.7). Plastics were extracted from the filters obtained by the chemical digestion of cephalopods gastrointestinal tracts (GITs), using 10% potassium hydroxide (KOH) solution in a 1:5 (w/v) ratio. Once isolated, particles were photographed, measured, and their size class, shape and color were recorded. A total of 81 items was isolated from 16 of the 19 examined GITs, representing a total occurrence (%O) of 84.2% with a mean value of 4.3 ± 8.6 particles per individual. In particular, 62 plastics were found in 6 specimens of O. vulgaris (%O=100) and 19 particles in 10 S. officinalis (%O=94.7). In both species, the microplastics size class was the most abundant (93.8%). Plastic items found in O. vulgaris were mainly fibers (61%) while fragments were the most frequent in S. officinalis (53%). Transparent was the most common color in both species. The analysis will be completed by Fourier transform infrared (FT-IR) spectroscopy technique in order to identify polymers nature. This study reports preliminary data on plastic ingestion events in two cephalopods species and represents the first record of plastic ingestion by the common octopus. Microplastic items detected in both common octopus and common cuttlefish could derive from secondary and/or accidental ingestion events, probably due to their behavior, feeding habits and anatomical features. Further studies will be required to assess the effect of marine litter pollution in these ecologically and commercially important species.

Keywords: cephalopods, GIT analysis, marine pollution, Mediterranean sea, microplastics

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Authors: Jakub Kraus, Vladimír Plos, Peter Vittek

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This article deals with a new approach to the airport emergency plans, which are the basic documents and manuals for dealing with events with impact on safety or security. The article describes the identified parts in which the current airport emergency plans do not fulfill their role and which should therefore be considered in the creation of corrective measures. All these issues have been identified at airports in the Czech Republic and confirmed at airports in neighboring countries.

Keywords: airport emergency plan, aviation safety, aviation security, comprehensive management system

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Authors: Sophie Kroeling, Agnetha Schuchardt

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Striving for sustainability brings a lot of challenges for different fields of interest, e. g. security or health concerns. In Germany, civil protection is predominantly carried out by emergency responders who perform essential tasks of civil protection. Based on theoretical concepts of different psychological stress theories this contribution focuses on the question, how the resilience of emergency responders can be improved. The goal is to identify resources and successful coping strategies that help to prevent and reduce negative outcomes during or after stressful events. The paper will present results from a qualitative analysis of semi-structured qualitative interviews with 20 emergency responders. These results provide insights into the complexity of coping processes (e. g. controlling the situation, downplaying perceived personal threats through humor) and show the diversity of stressors (like complexity of the disastrous situation, intrusive press and media, or lack of social support within the organization). Self-efficacy expectation was a very important resource for coping with stressful situations. The results served as a starting point for a quantitative survey (that was conducted in March 2017), the development of education and training tools for emergency responders and the improvement of critical incident stress management processes. First results from the quantitative study with more than 700 participants show that, e. g., the emergency responders use social coping within their private social network and also within their aid organization and that both are correlated to resilience. Moreover, missing information, bureaucratic problems and social conflicts within the organization are events that the majority of the participants considered very onerous. Further results from regression analysis will be presented. The proposed paper will combine findings from the qualitative study with the quantitative results, illustrating figures and correlations with respective statements from the interviews. At the end, suggestions for the improvement of the emergency responder’s resilience are given and it is discussed how this can make a contribution to strive for civil security and furthermore a sustainable development.

Keywords: civil security, emergency responders, stress, resilience, resources

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Authors: Shivdayal Patel, Suhail Ahmad

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Safety assurance and failure prediction of composite material component of an offshore structure due to low velocity impact is essential for associated risk assessment. It is important to incorporate uncertainties associated with material properties and load due to an impact. Likelihood of this hazard causing a chain of failure events plays an important role in risk assessment. The material properties of composites mostly exhibit a scatter due to their in-homogeneity and anisotropic characteristics, brittleness of the matrix and fiber and manufacturing defects. In fact, the probability of occurrence of such a scenario is due to large uncertainties arising in the system. Probabilistic finite element analysis of composite plates due to low-velocity impact is carried out considering uncertainties of material properties and initial impact velocity. Impact-induced damage of composite plate is a probabilistic phenomenon due to a wide range of uncertainties arising in material and loading behavior. A typical failure crack initiates and propagates further into the interface causing de-lamination between dissimilar plies. Since individual crack in the ply is difficult to track. The progressive damage model is implemented in the FE code by a user-defined material subroutine (VUMAT) to overcome these problems. The limit state function is accordingly established while the stresses in the lamina are such that the limit state function (g(x)>0). The Gaussian process response surface method is presently adopted to determine the probability of failure. A comparative study is also carried out for different combination of impactor masses and velocities. The sensitivity based probabilistic design optimization procedure is investigated to achieve better strength and lighter weight of composite structures. Chain of failure events due to different modes of failure is considered to estimate the consequences of failure scenario. Frequencies of occurrence of specific impact hazards yield the expected risk due to economic loss.

Keywords: composites, damage propagation, low velocity impact, probability of failure, uncertainty modeling

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Authors: Margarida Matos, João Pereira dos Santos, José Tavares

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Anti-minority discrimination is a persistent phenomenon with long-run effects. While there is a vast literature in economics and psychology that shows that personality and beliefs are not fixed and can be altered by experience, particularly in the so-called impressionable years in early adulthood, less is known about the long-lasting impacts of major events occurring during this time on minority attitudes. In this paper, we study the impact of serving in the military on long-term attitudes towards minorities. For many, military conscription and serving in war are unique life-shaping events. In the context of military service, individuals from different socioeconomic backgrounds interact and learn with each other, potentially changing their views and attitudes in a persistent manner. A prominent theory about the change of attitudes is the contact theory. It suggests that prejudice can be decreased if members of the groups interact with one another. The present paper adds to the literature by providing evidence from a more complicated setting involving the exposure to combat. We study the attitudes of veterans of the Portuguese Colonial War between 1961 and 1974, what was the latest war between African independence movements and Europeans. More than 70 percent of military age Portuguese men were drafted every year and sent to fight in Africa in the widest draft in post-World War II Western Europe. The contact between Portuguese and African soldiers was both cooperative as well as adversarial. Portuguese fought against but also alongside locally recruited African men, who represented half of the Portuguese contingent for substantial periods. We use data from the European Social Survey to identify Portuguese citizens likely to have been drafted and were send to fight in the former Portuguese colonies in Africa. We show that men likely to have fought in African wars are more accepting of immigrants than women of their same cohort, as well as than males from younger and older cohorts. The use of corresponding cohorts from Spain as placebo tests confirms our results. Our findings also hold in a regression discontinuity design setting.

Keywords: attitudes, immigration, war in Africa, veterans, portugal

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Authors: Maria Angela Bedini, Fabio Bronzini

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The risk of natural disasters affects all the countries of the world, whether it refers to seismic events or tsunamis or hydrogeological disasters. In most cases, the risk can be considered in its three components: hazard, exposure, vulnerability (and urban vulnerability). The aim of this paper is to evaluate how the Italian scientific community has related the contribution of these three components, superimposing the three different maps that summarize the fundamental structure of the risk. Based on the three components considered, the study applies the Regional Planning methodology on the three phases of the risk protection and mitigation process: the prevention phase, the emergency intervention phase, the post-disaster phase. The paper illustrates the Italian experience of the pre-during-post-earthquake intervention. Main results: The study deepens these aspects in the belief that “a historical center” and an “island” can present similar problems at the international level, both in the phase of prevention (earthquake, tsunamis, hydrogeological disasters), in emergency phase (protocols and procedures of intervention) and in the post-disaster phase. The conclusions of the research identify the need to plan in advance how to deal with the post-disaster phase and consider it a priority with respect to the simple reconstruction of destroyed buildings. In fact the main result of the post-disaster intervention must be the return and the social and economic support of the indigenous population, and not only the construction of new housing and equipment. In this sense, the results of the research show that the elderly inhabitants of a historic center can be compared to the indigenous population of an atoll of fishermen, as both constitute the most important resource: the human resource. Their return in conditions of security testifies, with their presence, the culture, customs, and values rooted in the history of a people.

Keywords: post-disaster interventions, risk of natural disasters in Italy and abroad, seismic events in Italy, social and economic protection and support for the native population of historical centers

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Authors: Mohammed Seyam, Faridah Othman, Ahmed El-Shafie

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The early warning of high stream flow events (HSF) and floods is an important aspect in the management of surface water and rivers systems. This process can be performed using either process-based models or data driven-based models such as artificial intelligence (AI) techniques. The main goal of this study is to develop efficient AI-based model for predicting the real-time hourly stream flow (Q) and apply it as early warning tool of HSF and floods in the downstream area of the Selangor River basin, taken here as a paradigm of humid tropical rivers in Southeast Asia. The performance of AI-based models has been improved through the integration of the lag time (Lt) estimation in the modelling process. A total of 8753 patterns of Q, water level, and rainfall hourly records representing one-year period (2011) were utilized in the modelling process. Six hydrological scenarios have been arranged through hypothetical cases of input variables to investigate how the changes in RF intensity in upstream stations can lead formation of floods. The initial SF was changed for each scenario in order to include wide range of hydrological situations in this study. The performance evaluation of the developed AI-based model shows that high correlation coefficient (R) between the observed and predicted Q is achieved. The AI-based model has been successfully employed in early warning throughout the advance detection of the hydrological conditions that could lead to formations of floods and HSF, where represented by three levels of severity (i.e., alert, warning, and danger). Based on the results of the scenarios, reaching the danger level in the downstream area required high RF intensity in at least two upstream areas. According to results of applications, it can be concluded that AI-based models are beneficial tools to the local authorities for flood control and awareness.

Keywords: floods, stream flow, hydrological modelling, hydrology, artificial intelligence

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Authors: Aysen Muderrisoglu Esiner

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As an intellectual, scholar, bureaucrat, and statesman, Ahmed Cevdet Pasha (1822-1895) was the prominent figure of “Tanzimat” (reorganization) reforms of the Ottoman State while his daughter Fatma Aliye (1862-1936) was a novelist, columnist, essayist, and women’s rights activist. His father had numerous books on law, grammar, linguistics, logic, and astronomy, moreover, Aliye accepted as the first female novelist in the Turkish literature and the Islamic world. Even if she was better known as a novelist, she also published some works on philosophy, Islam, poetry. In addition, Aliye who was one of the pioneers of the Ottoman women’s movement, also wrote historical works. Her historical works which titled as Tarih-i Osmaninin Bir Devre-i Mühimmesi Kosova Zaferi-Ankara Hezimeti (An Important Era of the Ottoman History: Kosova Victory-Ankara Defeat), and Ahmed Cevdet Paşa ve Zamanı (Ahmed Cevdet Pasha and His Time) have been generally ignored in the literature. However, Aliye’s works in history field are worth being studied in terms of her methodological approach to the Ottoman historiography. On the other hand, written by Ahmed Cevdet Pasha, such as Tarih-i Cevdet (History of Cevdet), Tezâkir (Memoir), Mâruzat (Reports, the events that took place between 1839-1876, 1890), Kısas-ı Enbiya ve Tevârîh-i Hulefa (Retaliation of the Prophets and the History of Calips), Kırım ve Kafkas Tarihçesi (Crimean and Caucasian History) are the most important works in terms of historiography in the 19th century. In contrast to the traditional methodology, Cevdet Pasha brought a new understanding to the Ottoman historiography by making a synthesis between the traditional and modern methods. In this research, the historical works of these two prominent figures of the Ottoman State will be analyzed in terms of their approaches to the Ottoman historiography while evaluating the following questions: to what extent that their use of local and foreign historical sources and their handling of the historical events differ, or if it is possible to talk about a methodological similarities in terms of historiography.

Keywords: Ahmed Cevdet Pasha, Fatma Aliye, historiography, methodology

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Authors: Tiberiu Boros, Angela Ionita, Maria Visan

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Wildfires are one of the frequent and uncontrollable phenomena that currently affect large areas of the world where the climate, geographic and social conditions make it impossible to prevent and control such events. In this paper we introduce the ground concepts that lie behind the SIAFIM (Satellite Image Analysis for Fire Monitoring) project in order to create a context and we introduce a set of newly created tools that are external to the project but inherently in interventions and complex decision making based on geospatial information and spatial data infrastructures.

Keywords: wildfire, forest fire, natural language processing, mobile applications, communication, GPS

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Authors: Carolina Morales, Ricardo Castro-Huerta, Enrique A. Mundaca

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The edaphic fauna is the main factor involved in the transformation of nutrients and soil decomposition processes. Edaphic organisms are highly sensitive to soil disturbances, which normally causes changes in the composition and abundance of such organisms. Fire is known to be a disturbing factor since it affects the physical, chemical and biological properties of the soil and the whole ecosystem. During the summer (December-March) of 2017, Chile suffered the major fire events recorded in its modern history, which affected a vast area and a number of ecosystem types. The objective of this study was first to use remote sensing satellite images and GIS (Geographic Information Systems) to assess and identify levels of fire severity in disturbed areas and to compare the responses of the soil mesofauna diversity among such areas. We identified four areas (treatments) with an ascending level of severity, namely: mild, medium, high severity, and free of fire. A non-affected patch of forest was established as a control. Three samples from each treatment were collected in the form of a soil cube (10x10x10 cm). Edaphic mesofauna was obtained from each sample through the Berlese-Tullgren funnel method. Collected specimens were quantified and identified, using the RTU (Recognisable Taxonomic Unit) criterion. Diversity was analysed using inferential statistics to compare Simpson and Shannon-Wiener indexes across treatments. As predicted, the unburned forest patch (control) exhibited higher diversity values than the treatments. Significantly higher diversity values were recorded in those treatments subjected to lower fire severity. We conclude that remote sensing zoning is an adequate tool to identify different levels of fire severity and that an edaphic mesofauna is a group of organisms that qualify as good bioindicators for monitoring soil recovery after fire events.

Keywords: bioindicator, Chile, fire severity level, soil

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Authors: Luisa Kynast

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It is obvious that buildings and infrastructure are highly impacted by climate change (CC). Both, design and material of buildings need to be resilient to weather events in order to shelter humans, animals, or goods. As well as buildings and infrastructure are exposed to weather events, the construction process itself is generally carried out outdoors without being protected from extreme temperatures, heavy rain, or storms. The production process is restricted by technical limitations for processing materials with machines and physical limitations due to human beings (“outdoor-worker”). In future due to CC, average weather patterns are expected to change as well as extreme weather events are expected to occur more frequently and more intense and therefore have a greater impact on production processes and on the construction businesses itself. This research aims to examine this impact by analyzing an association between responses to CC and financial performance of businesses within the construction industry. After having embedded the above depicted field of research into the resource dependency theory, a literature review was conducted to expound the state of research concerning a contingent relation between climate change adaptation measures (CCAM) and corporate financial performance for construction businesses. The examined studies prove that this field is rarely investigated, especially for construction businesses. Therefore, reports of the Carbon Disclosure Project (CDP) were analyzed by applying content analysis using the software tool MAXQDA. 58 construction companies – located worldwide – could be examined. To proceed even more systematically a coding scheme analogous to findings in literature was adopted. Out of qualitative analysis, data was quantified and a regression analysis containing corporate financial data was conducted. The results gained stress adaptation measures as a response to CC as a crucial proxy to handle climate change impacts (CCI) by mitigating risks and exploiting opportunities. In CDP reports the majority of answers stated increasing costs/expenses as a result of implemented measures. A link to sales/revenue was rarely drawn. Though, CCAM were connected to increasing sales/revenues. Nevertheless, this presumption is supported by the results of the regression analysis where a positive effect of implemented CCAM on construction businesses´ financial performance in the short-run was ascertained. These findings do refer to appropriate responses in terms of the implemented number of CCAM. Anyhow, still businesses show a reluctant attitude for implementing CCAM, which was confirmed by findings in literature as well as by findings in CDP reports. Businesses mainly associate CCAM with costs and expenses rather than with an effect on their corporate financial performance. Mostly companies underrate the effect of CCI and overrate the costs and expenditures for the implementation of CCAM and completely neglect the pay-off. Therefore, this research shall create a basis for bringing CC to the (financial) attention of corporate decision-makers, especially within the construction industry.

Keywords: climate change adaptation measures, construction businesses, financial implication, resource dependency theory

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Authors: Mohammad Mokhtari, Mehdi Masoodi, Parvaneh Faridi

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history of tsunami generating earthquakes along the Makran Subduction Zone provides evidence of the potential tsunami hazard for the whole coastal area. In comparison with other subduction zone in the world, the Makran region of southern Pakistan and southeastern Iran remains low seismicity. Also, it is one of the least studied area in the northwest of the Indian Ocean regarding tsunami studies. We present a review of studies dealing with the historical /and ongoing palaeotsunamis supported by IGCP of UNESCO in the Makran Subduction Zone. The historical tsunami presented here includes about nine tsunamis in the Makran Subduction Zone, of which over 7 tsunamis occur in the eastern Makran. Tsunami is not as common in the western Makran as in the eastern Makran, where a database of historical events exists. The historically well-documented event is related to the 1945 earthquake with a magnitude of 8.1moment magnitude and tsunami in the western and eastern Makran. There are no details as to whether a tsunami was generated by a seismic event before 1945 off western Makran. But several potentially large tsunamigenic events in the MSZ before 1945 occurred in 325 B.C., 1008, 1483, 1524, 1765, 1851, 1864, and 1897. Here we will present new findings from a historical point of view, immediately, we would like to emphasize that the area needs to be considered with higher research investigation. As mentioned above, a palaeotsunami (geological evidence) is now being planned, and here we will present the first phase result. From a risk point of view, the study shows as preliminary achievement within 20 minutes the wave reaches to Iranian as well Pakistan and Oman coastal zone with very much destructive tsunami waves capable of inundating destructive effect. It is important to note that all the coastal areas of all states surrounding the MSZ are being developed very rapidly, so any event would have a devastating effect on this region. Although several papers published about modelling, seismology, tsunami deposits in the last decades; as Makran is a forgotten subduction zone, more data such as the main crustal structure, fault location, and its related parameter are required.

Keywords: historical tsunami, Indian ocean, makran subduction zone, palaeotsunami

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