Search results for: stochastic volatility model

Authors: Sanjal Gavande, Thomas Mazzuchi, Shahram Sarkani

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In a complex aerospace operational environment, identifying failures in a procedure involving multiple human-machine interactions are difficult. These failures could lead to accidents causing loss of hardware or human life. The likelihood of failure further increases if operational procedures are tested for a novel system with multiple human-machine interfaces and with no prior performance data. The existing approach in the literature of reviewing complex operational tasks in a flowchart or tabular form doesn’t provide any insight into potential system failures due to human decision-making ability. To address these challenges, this research explores an agent-based simulation approach for reliability assessment and fault detection in complex human-machine systems while utilizing a human decision-making model. The simulation will predict the emergent behavior of the system due to the interaction between humans and their decision-making capability with the varying states of the machine and vice-versa. Overall system reliability will be evaluated based on a defined set of success-criteria conditions and the number of recorded failures over an assigned limit of Monte Carlo runs. The study also aims at identifying high-likelihood failure locations for the system. The research concludes that system reliability and failures can be effectively calculated when individual human and machine agent states are clearly defined. This research is limited to the operations phase of a system lifecycle process in an aerospace environment only. Further exploration of the proposed agent-based and human decision-making model will be required to allow for a greater understanding of this topic for application outside of the operations domain.

Keywords: agent-based model, complex human-machine system, human decision-making model, system reliability assessment

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Authors: Arezoo Fallahi

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Background and purpose: Non-alcoholic fatty liver is one of the most common liver disorders, which, as the most important cause of death from liver disease, has unpleasant consequences and complications. The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of an educational intervention based on a health belief model to prevent non-alcoholic fatty liver among women. Materials and Methods: This experimental study was performed among 110 women referring to comprehensive health service centers in Malayer City, west of Iran, in 2023. Using the available sampling method, 110 Participants were divided into experimental and control groups. The data collection tool included demographic characteristics and a questionnaire based on the health belief model. In The experimental group, three one-hour training sessions were conducted in the form of pamphlets, lectures and group discussions. Data were analyzed using SPSS software version 21, by correlation tests, paired t-tests independent t-tests. Results: The mean age of participants was 38.07±6.28 years, and Most of the participants were middle-aged, married, housewives with academic education, middle-income and overweight. After the educational intervention, the mean scores of the constructs include perceived sensitivity (p=0.01), perceived severity (p=0.01), perceived benefits (p=0.01), guidance for internal (p=0.01) and external action (p=0.01), and perceived self-efficacy (p=0.01) in the experimental group were significantly higher than the control group. The score of perceived barriers in the experimental group decreased after training. The perceived obstacles score in the test group decreased after the training (15.2 ± 3.9 v.s 11.2 ± 3.3, (p<0.01). Conclusion: The findings of the study showed that the design and implementation of educational programs based on the constructs of the health belief model can be effective in preventing women from developing higher levels of non-alcoholic fatty liver.

Keywords: health, education, believe, behaviour

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Authors: G. Shabib, Esam H. Abd-Elhameed, G. Magdy

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In this paper, a comparison of discrete time PID, PSS controllers is presented through small signal stability of power system comprising of one machine connected to infinite bus system. This comparison achieved by using a new approach of discretization which converts the S-domain model of analog controllers to a Z-domain model to enhance the damping of a single machine power system. The new method utilizes the Plant Input Mapping (PIM) algorithm. The proposed algorithm is stable for any sampling rate, as well as it takes the closed loop characteristic into consideration. On the other hand, the traditional discretization methods such as Tustin’s method is produce satisfactory results only; when the sampling period is sufficiently low.

Keywords: PSS, power system stabilizer PID, proportional-integral-derivative PIM, plant input mapping

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Authors: Beddiaf Abdelaziz

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The optical characteristics of thin films of silicon oxynitride SiOₓNy prepared by the Low-Pressure Chemical Vapor Deposition (LPCVD) technique have been studied. The films are elaborated from the SiH₂Cl₂, N₂O and NH₃ gaseous mixtures. The flows of SiH₂Cl₂ and (N₂O+NH₃) are 200 sccm and 160 sccm respectively. The deposited films have been characterized by ellipsometry, to model our silicon oxynitride SiOₓNy films. We have suggested two theoretical models (Maxwell Garnett and Bruggeman effective medium approximation (BEMA)). These models have been applied on silicon oxynitride considering the material as a heterogeneous medium formed by silicon oxide and silicon nitride. The model's validation was justified by the confrontation of theoretical spectra and those measured by ellipsometry. This result permits us to obtain the optical refractive coefficient of these films and their thickness. Ellipsometry analysis of the optical properties of the SiOₓNy films shows that the SiO₂ fraction decreases when the gaseous ratio NH₃/N₂O increases. Whereas the increase of this ratio leads to an increase of the silicon nitride Si3N4 fraction. The study also shows that the increasing gaseous ratio leads to a strong incorporation of nitrogen atoms in films. Also, the increasing of the SiOₓNy refractive coefficient until the SiO₂ value shows that this insulating material has good dielectric quality.

Keywords: ellipsometry, silicon oxynitrde, model, refractive coefficient, effective medium

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Authors: Yang Shen, Yongpan Cheng, Jinliang Xu

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The effective blade cooling is of great significance for improving the performance of turbine. The mist cooling emerges as the promising way compared with the transitional single-phase cooling. In the mist cooling, the injected droplet will evaporate rapidly, and cool down the blade surface due to the absorbed latent heat, hence the lifetime for evaporating droplet becomes critical for design of cooling passages for the blade. So far there have been extensive studies on the droplet evaporation, but usually the isothermal model is applied for most of the studies. Actually the surface cooling effect can affect the droplet evaporation greatly, it can prolong the droplet evaporation lifetime significantly. In our study, a new theoretical model for sessile droplet evaporation with surface cooling effect is built up in toroidal coordinate. Three evaporation modes are analyzed during the evaporation lifetime, include “Constant Contact Radius”(CCR) mode、“Constant Contact Angle”(CCA) mode and “stick-slip”(SS) mode. The dimensionless number E0 is introduced to indicate the strength of the evaporative cooling, it is defined based on the thermal properties of the liquid and the atmosphere. Our model can predict accurately the lifetime of evaporation by validating with available experimental data. Then the temporal variation of droplet volume, contact angle and contact radius are presented under CCR, CCA and SS mode, the following conclusions are obtained. 1) The larger the dimensionless number E0, the longer the lifetime of three evaporation cases is; 2) The droplet volume over time still follows “2/3 power law” in the CCA mode, as in the isothermal model without the cooling effect; 3) In the “SS” mode, the large transition contact angle can reduce the evaporation time in CCR mode, and increase the time in CCA mode, the overall lifetime will be increased; 4) The correction factor for predicting instantaneous volume of the droplet is derived to predict the droplet life time accurately. These findings may be of great significance to explore the dynamics and heat transfer of sessile droplet evaporation.

Keywords: blade cooling, droplet evaporation, lifetime, theoretical analysis

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Authors: Mir Jalil Razavi, Tianming Liu, Xianqiao Wang

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Cortical folding, characterized by convex gyri and concave sulci, has an intrinsic relationship to the brain’s functional organization. Understanding the mechanism of the brain’s convoluted patterns can provide useful clues into normal and pathological brain function. During the development, the cerebral cortex experiences a noticeable expansion in volume and surface area accompanied by tremendous tissue folding which may be attributed to many possible factors. Despite decades of endeavors, the fundamental mechanism and key regulators of this crucial process remain incompletely understood. Therefore, to taking even a small role in unraveling of brain folding mystery, we present a mechanical model to find mechanism of 3-hinges formation in a growing brain that it has not been addressed before. A 3-hinge is defined as a gyral region where three gyral crests (hinge-lines) join. The reasons that how and why brain prefers to develop 3-hinges have not been answered very well. Therefore, we offer a theoretical and computational explanation to mechanism of 3-hinges formation in a growing brain and validate it by experimental observations. In theoretical approach, the dynamic behavior of brain tissue is examined and described with the aid of a large strain and nonlinear constitutive model. Derived constitute model is used in the computational model to define material behavior. Since the theoretical approach cannot predict the evolution of cortical complex convolution after instability, non-linear finite element models are employed to study the 3-hinges formation and secondary morphological folds of the developing brain. Three-dimensional (3D) finite element analyses on a multi-layer soft tissue model which mimics a small piece of the brain are performed to investigate the fundamental mechanism of consistent hinge formation in the cortical folding. Results show that after certain amount growth of cortex, mechanical model starts to be unstable and then by formation of creases enters to a new configuration with lower strain energy. By further growth of the model, formed shallow creases start to form convoluted patterns and then develop 3-hinge patterns. Simulation results related to 3-hinges in models show good agreement with experimental observations from macaque, chimpanzee and human brain images. These results have great potential to reveal fundamental principles of brain architecture and to produce a unified theoretical framework that convincingly explains the intrinsic relationship between cortical folding and 3-hinges formation. This achieved fundamental understanding of the intrinsic relationship between cortical folding and 3-hinges formation would potentially shed new insights into the diagnosis of many brain disorders such as schizophrenia, autism, lissencephaly and polymicrogyria.

Keywords: brain, cortical folding, finite element, three hinge

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Authors: Hasan Serdar Öge, Esra Çiftçi, Kazım Karaboğa

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The main purpose of the research is to address the role of psychological harassment behaviors (mobbing) to which employees are exposed and personality characteristics over work alienation. Research population was composed of the employees of Provincial Special Administration. A survey with four sections was created to measure variables and reach out the basic goals of the research. Correlation and step-wise regression analyses were performed to investigate the separate and overall effects of sub-dimensions of psychological harassment behaviors and personality characteristic on work alienation of employees. Correlation analysis revealed significant but weak relationships between work alienation and psychological harassment and personality characteristics. Step-wise regression analysis revealed also significant relationships between work alienation variable and assault to personality, direct negative behaviors (sub dimensions of mobbing) and openness (sub-dimension of personality characteristics). Each variable was introduced into the model step by step to investigate the effects of significant variables in explaining the variations in work alienation. While the explanation ratio of the first model was 13%, the last model including three variables had an explanation ratio of 24%.

Keywords: alienation, five-factor personality characteristics, mobbing, psychological harassment, work alienation

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Authors: Laurent Maurin, Mervi Toivanen

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This paper estimates euro area banks’ internal target capital ratios and investigates whether banks’ adjustment to the targets have an impact on credit supply and holding of securities during the financial crisis in 2005-2011. Using data on listed banks and country-specific macro-variables a partial adjustment model is estimated in a panel context. The results indicate, firstly, that an increase in the riskiness of banks’ balance sheets influences positively on the target capital ratios. Secondly, the adjustment towards higher equilibrium capital ratios has a significant impact on banks’ assets. The impact is found to be more size-able on security holdings than on loans, thereby suggesting a pecking order.

Keywords: Euro area, capital ratios, credit supply, partial adjustment model

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Authors: Pedro Paulo Galindo Francisco, Eli Dhadad Junior

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This study addresses the Meese-Rogoff Puzzle by introducing the latest machine learning techniques as alternatives for predicting the exchange rates. Using RMSE as a comparison metric, Meese and Rogoff discovered that economic models are unable to outperform the random walk model as short-term exchange rate predictors. Decades after this study, no statistical prediction technique has proven effective in overcoming this obstacle; although there were positive results, they did not apply to all currencies and defined periods. Recent advancements in artificial intelligence technologies have paved the way for a new approach to exchange rate prediction. Leveraging this technology, we applied five machine learning techniques to attempt to overcome the Meese-Rogoff puzzle. We considered daily data for the real, yen, British pound, euro, and Chinese yuan against the US dollar over a time horizon from 2010 to 2023. Our results showed that none of the presented techniques were able to produce an RMSE lower than the Random Walk model. However, the performance of some models, particularly LSTM and N-BEATS were able to outperform the ARIMA model. The results also suggest that machine learning models have untapped potential and could represent an effective long-term possibility for overcoming the Meese-Rogoff puzzle.

Keywords: exchage rate, prediction, machine learning, deep learning

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Authors: Marinka Baghdasaryan, Tigran Mnoyan

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The pertinence of modeling the moment of resistance generated by the ore-grinding mill is substantiated. Based on the ranking of technological indices obtained in the result of the survey among the specialists of several beneficiating plants, the factors determining the level of the moment of resistance generated by the mill are revealed. A priori diagram of the ranks is obtained in which the factors are arranged in the descending order of the impact degree on the level of the moment. The obtained model of the moment of resistance shows the technological character of the operation modes of the ore-grinding mill and can be used for improving the operation modes of the system motor-mill and preventing the abnormal mode of the drive synchronous motor.

Keywords: model, abnormal mode, mill, correlation, moment of resistance, rotational speed

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Authors: Sarah K. Amer, Nagwa Badr, Osman Ibrahim, Ahmed Hamad

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This paper surveys the effectiveness of software process quality assurance frameworks, with some focus on Capability Maturity Model Integration (CMMI) - a framework that has become widely adopted in software organizations. The importance of quality improvement in software development, and the differences in the outcomes of quality framework implementation between Middle Eastern and North African (MENA-region) countries and non-MENA-region countries are discussed. The greatest challenges met in the MENA region are identified, with particular focus on Egypt and its rising software development industry.

Keywords: software quality, software process improvement, software development methodologies, capability maturity model integration

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Authors: Mokhtar Kouki Inès Rekik

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This paper focuses on the assessment of the air pollution and morbidity relationship in Tunisia. Air pollution is measured by ozone air concentration and the morbidity is measured by the number of respiratory-related restricted activity days during the 2-week period prior to the interview. Socioeconomic data are also collected in order to adjust for any confounding covariates. Our sample is composed by 407 Tunisian respondents; 44.7% are women, the average age is 35.2, near 69% are living in a house built after the 1980, and 27.8% have reported at least one day of respiratory-related restricted activity. The model consists on the regression of the number of respiratory-related restricted activity days on the air quality measure and the socioeconomic covariates. In order to correct for zero-inflation and heterogeneity, we estimate several models (Poisson, Negative binomial, Zero inflated Poisson, Poisson hurdle, Negative binomial hurdle and finite mixture Poisson models). Bootstrapping and post-stratification techniques are used in order to correct for any sample bias. According to the Akaike information criteria, the hurdle negative binomial model has the greatest goodness of fit. The main result indicates that, after adjusting for socioeconomic data, the ozone concentration increases the probability of positive number of restricted activity days.

Keywords: bootstrapping, hurdle negbin model, overdispersion, ozone concentration, respiratory-related restricted activity days

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Authors: Zhen Qin, Yufei Peng, Jianbei Li, Jidong Long

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In order to study the activity of the coated aluminate barium-tungsten cathodes during activation, aging, poisoning and long-term use. Through a set of hot-cathode micro-area emission uniformity study device, we tested the micro-area emission performance of the cathode under different conditions. The change of activity of cathode micro-area was obtained. The influence of micro-area activity on the performance of the cathode was explained by the ageing model of barium-tungsten cathode. This helps to improve the design and process of the cathode and can point the way in finding the factors that affect life in the cathode operation.

Keywords: barium-tungsten cathode, ageing model, micro-area emission, emission uniformity

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Authors: Vladimir Isakov, Evgeniy Rykov, Lubov Magerramova, Nikolay Emmaussky

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For the manufacture of critical hollow products, a laser narrow-seam welding scheme based on the supply of a laser beam into the inner cavity has been developed. The report presents the results of comprehensive studies aimed at creating a sealed weld that repeats the geometric shape of the inner cavity using a rotary mirror. Laser welding of hard-to-reach places requires preliminary modeling of the process to identify defect-free modes performed at the highest possible welding speed. Optimization of the technological modes of the welded joint with a ratio of the seam width to its depth equal to 1/5 of the thickness of the Ni superalloy 6.0 mm was performed using the Verhulst limited growth model in a discrete representation. This mathematical model in the form of a recurrence relation made it possible to numerically investigate the entire variety of laser melting modes: chaotic; self-oscillating; stationary and attenuated. The control parameters and the parameter of the order to which other variables of the technological system of laser welding are subordinated are established. In it, the coefficient of relative heat capacity of the melt bath was used as a control parameter, characterizing the competition between the heat input by the laser and the heat sink into the surrounding metal. The parameter of the order of the narrow–seam laser welding process, in this interpretation, is a dimensionless value of the penetration depth, which is an argument of the function of the desired logistic equation. Experimental studies of narrow-seam welding were performed using a copper, water-cooled mirror by radiation from a powerful fiber laser. The obtained results were used to validate the evolutionary mathematical model of the laser welding process.

Keywords: laser welding, internal cavity, limited growth model, ni-superalloy

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Authors: Basma Yassa

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Evidence on cash transfers’ effectiveness in mitigating macro and idiosyncratic shocks’ impacts has been mixed and is mostly concentrated in Latin America, Sub-Saharan Africa, and South Asia with very limited evidence from the MENA region. Yet conditional cash transfers schemes have been continually used, especially in Egypt, as the main social protection tool in response to the recent socioeconomic crises and macro shocks. We use 2 panel datasets and 1 cross-sectional dataset to estimate the effectiveness of cash transfers as a shock-mitigative mechanism in the Egyptian context. In this paper, the results from the different models (Panel Fixed Effects model and the Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) model) confirm that micro and macro shocks lead to significant decline in several household-level welfare outcomes and that Takaful cash transfers have a significant positive impact in mitigating the negative shock impacts, especially on households’ debt incidence, debt levels, and asset ownership, but not necessarily on food, and non-food expenditure levels. The results indicate large positive significant effects on decreasing household incidence of debt by up to 12.4 percent and lowered the debt size by approximately 18 percent among Takaful beneficiaries compared to non-beneficiaries’. Similar evidence is found on asset ownership levels, as the RDD model shows significant positive effects on total asset ownership and productive asset ownership, but the model failed to detect positive impacts on per capita food and non-food expenditures. Further extensions are still in progress to compare the models’ results with the DID model results when using a nationally representative ELMPS panel data (2018/2024) rounds. Finally, our initial analysis suggests that conditional cash transfers are effective in buffering the negative shock impacts on certain welfare indicators even after successive macro-economic shocks in 2022 and 2023 in the Egyptian Context.

Keywords: cash transfers, fixed effects, household welfare, household debt, micro shocks, regression discontinuity design

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Authors: Houssam A. Toutanji, Meng Han

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This study focuses on the development of a fracture mechanics based-model that predicts the debonding behavior of FRP strengthened RC beams. In this study, a database includes 351 concrete prisms bonded with FRP plates tested in single and double shear were prepared. The existing fracture-mechanics-based models are applied to this database. Unfortunately the properties of adhesive layer, especially a soft adhesive layer, used on the specimens in the existing studies were not always able to found. Thus, the new model’s proposal was based on fifteen newly conducted pullout tests and twenty four data selected from two independent existing studies with the application of a soft adhesive layers and the availability of adhesive properties.

Keywords: carbon fiber composite materials, interface response, fracture characteristics, maximum shear stress, ultimate transferable load

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Authors: Lucie Côté, Martin Lauzier, Guy Beauchamp, France Guertin

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Stress causes deleterious effects to the physical, psychological and organizational levels, which highlight the need to use effective coping strategies to deal with it. Several coping models exist, but they don’t integrate the different strategies in a coherent way nor do they take into account the new research on the emotional coping and acceptance of the stressful situation. To fill these gaps, an integrative model incorporating the main coping strategies was developed. This model arises from the review of the scientific literature on coping and from a qualitative study carried out among workers with low or high levels of stress, as well as from an analysis of clinical cases. The model allows one to understand under what circumstances the strategies are effective or ineffective and to learn how one might use them more wisely. It includes Specific Strategies in controllable situations (the Modification of the Situation and the Resignation-Disempowerment), Specific Strategies in non-controllable situations (Acceptance and Stubborn Relentlessness) as well as so-called General Strategies (Wellbeing and Avoidance). This study is intended to undertake and present the process of development and validation of an instrument to measure coping strategies based on this model. An initial pool of items has been generated from the conceptual definitions and three expert judges have validated the content. Of these, 18 items have been selected for a short form questionnaire. A sample of 300 students and employees from a Quebec university was used for the validation of the questionnaire. Concerning the reliability of the instrument, the indices observed following the inter-rater agreement (Krippendorff’s alpha) and the calculation of the coefficients for internal consistency (Cronbach's alpha) are satisfactory. To evaluate the construct validity, a confirmatory factor analysis using MPlus supports the existence of a model with six factors. The results of this analysis suggest also that this configuration is superior to other alternative models. The correlations show that the factors are only loosely related to each other. Overall, the analyses carried out suggest that the instrument has good psychometric qualities and demonstrates the relevance of further work to establish predictive validity and reconfirm its structure. This instrument will help researchers and clinicians better understand and assess coping strategies to cope with stress and thus prevent mental health issues.

Keywords: acceptance, coping strategies, stress, validation process

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Authors: Renata Konadu

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In Ghana, electricity has become the main form of energy which all sectors of the economy rely on for their businesses. Therefore, as the economy grows, the demand and consumption of electricity also grow alongside due to the heavy dependence on it. However, since the supply of electricity has not increased to match the demand, there has been frequent power outages and load shedding affecting business performances. To solve this problem and advance policies to secure electricity in Ghana, it is imperative that those factors that cause consumption to increase be analysed by considering the three classes of consumers; residential, industrial and non-residential. The main argument, however, is that, export of electricity to other neighbouring countries should be included in the electricity consumption model and considered as one of the significant factors which can decrease or increase consumption. The author made use of multivariate time series data from 1980-2010 and econometric models such as Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Vector Error Correction Model. Findings show that GDP growth, urban population growth, electricity exports and industry value added to GDP were cointegrated. The results also showed that there is unidirectional causality from electricity export and GDP growth and Industry value added to GDP to electricity consumption in the long run. However, in the short run, there was found to be a directional causality among all the variables and electricity consumption. The results have useful implication for energy policy makers especially with regards to electricity consumption, demand, and supply.

Keywords: electricity consumption, energy policy, GDP growth, vector error correction model

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Authors: Leah Wright, Trevor Townsend

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Mode choice models are crucial instruments in the analysis of travel behaviour. These models show the relationship between an individual’s choice of transportation mode for a given O-D pair and the individual’s socioeconomic characteristics such as household size and income level, age and/or gender, and the features of the transportation system. The most popular functional forms of these models are based on Utility-Based Choice Theory, which addresses the uncertainty in the decision-making process with the use of an error term. However, with the development of artificial intelligence, many researchers have started to take a different approach to travel demand modelling. In recent times, researchers have looked at using neural networks, fuzzy logic and rough set theory to develop improved mode choice formulas. The concept of cloud theory has recently been introduced to model decision-making under uncertainty. Unlike the previously mentioned theories, cloud theory recognises a relationship between randomness and fuzziness, two of the most common types of uncertainty. This research aims to investigate the use of cloud theory in mode choice models. This paper highlights the conceptual framework of the mode choice model using cloud theory. Merging decision-making under uncertainty and mode choice models is state of the art. The cloud theory model is expected to address the issues and concerns with the nested logit and improve the design of mode choice models and their use in travel demand.

Keywords: Cloud theory, decision-making, mode choice models, travel behaviour, uncertainty

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Authors: Md. Kausar Alam, Mohammad Yazdi, Peiman Zogh, Ramin Motamed

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The liquefaction-induced ground settlement has caused severe damage to structures in the past decades. However, the amount of building settlement caused by liquefaction is directly proportional to the intensity of the ground shaking. To reduce this soil liquefaction effect, it is essential to examine the influence of peak ground acceleration (PGA). Unfortunately, limited studies have been carried out on this issue. In this study, a series of moderate scale 1g shake table experiments were conducted at the University of Nevada Reno to evaluate the influence of PGA with the same duration in liquefiable soil layers. The model is prepared based on a large-scale shake table with a scaling factor of N = 5, which has been conducted at the University of California, San Diego. The model ground has three soil layers with relative densities of 50% for crust, 30% for liquefiable, and 90% for dense layer, respectively. In addition, a shallow foundation is seated over an unsaturated crust layer. After preparing the model, the input motions having various peak ground accelerations (i.e., 0.16g, 0.25g, and 0.37g) for the same duration (10 sec) were applied. Based on the experimental results, when the PGA increased from 0.16g to 0.37g, the foundation increased from 20 mm to 100 mm. In addition, the expected foundation settlement based on the scaling factor was 25 mm, while the actual settlement for PGA 0.25g for 10 seconds was 50 mm.

Keywords: foundation settlement, liquefaction, peak ground acceleration, shake table test

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Authors: Ehsan Gholamalizadeh, Jae Dong Chung

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Solar chimney power plant is a feasible solar thermal system which produces electricity from the Sun. The objective of this study is to investigate buoyancy-driven flow and heat transfer through a built pilot solar chimney system called 'Kerman Project'. The system has a chimney with the height and diameter of 60 m and 3 m, respectively, and the average radius of its solar collector is about 20 m, and also its average collector height is about 2 m. A three-dimensional simulation was conducted to analyze the system, using computational fluid dynamics (CFD). In this model, radiative transfer equation was solved using the discrete ordinates (DO) radiation model taking into account a non-gray radiation behavior. In order to modelling solar irradiation from the sun’s rays, the solar ray tracing algorithm was coupled to the computation via a source term in the energy equation. The model was validated with comparing to the experimental data of the Manzanares prototype and also the performance of the built pilot system. Then, based on the numerical simulations, velocity and temperature distributions through the system, the temperature profile of the ground surface and the system performance were presented. The analysis accurately shows the flow and heat transfer characteristics through the pilot system and predicts its performance.

Keywords: buoyancy-driven flow, computational fluid dynamics, heat transfer, renewable energy, solar chimney power plant

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Authors: S. Belgherras Bekkouche, T. Benouaz, S. M. A. Bekkouche

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Tokamak plasma is far from having a stable background. The study of turbulent transport is an important part of the current research and advanced scenarios were devised to minimize it. To do this, we used a three-wave interaction model which allows to investigate the occurrence drift-wave turbulence driven by pressure gradients in the edge plasma of a tokamak. In order to simulate the energy redistribution among different modes, the growth/decay rates for the three waves was added. After a numerical simulation, we can determine certain aspects of the temporal dynamics exhibited by the model. Indeed for a wide range of the wave decay rate, an intermittent transition from periodic behavior to chaos is observed. Then, a control strategy of chaos was introduced with the aim of reducing or eliminating the weak turbulence.

Keywords: wave interaction, plasma drift waves, wave turbulence, tokamak, edge plasma, chaos

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Authors: Muhammad Jahanzaib, Muhammad Z. A. Khan, Junaid Khayyam

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Islamabad is the capital of Pakistan with the population of 1.365 million people and with a vehicular fleet size of 0.75 million. The vehicular fleet size is growing annually by the rate of 11%. Vehicular emissions are major source of Black carbon (BC). In developing countries like Pakistan, most of the vehicles consume conventional fuels like Petrol, Diesel, and CNG. These fuels are the major emitters of pollutants like CO, CO2, NOx, CH4, VOCs, and particulate matter (PM10). Carbon dioxide and methane are the leading contributor to the global warming with a global share of 9-26% and 4-9% respectively. NOx is the precursor of nitrates which ultimately form aerosols that are noxious to human health. In this study, COPERT (Computer program to Calculate Emissions from Road Transport) was used for vehicular emission estimation in Islamabad. COPERT is a windows based program which is developed for the calculation of emissions from the road transport sector. The emissions were calculated for the year of 2016 include pollutants like CO, NOx, VOC, and PM and energy consumption. The different variable was input to the model for emission estimation including meteorological parameters, average vehicular trip length and respective time duration, fleet configuration, activity data, degradation factor, and fuel effect. The estimated emissions for CO, CH4, CO2, NOx, and PM10 were found to be 9814.2, 44.9, 279196.7, 3744.2 and 304.5 tons respectively.

Keywords: COPERT Model, emission estimation, PM10, vehicular emission

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Authors: M. Unis, S. Turky, A. Elalem, A. Meshrghi

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The Esterification kinetics of acetic acid with isopropnol in the presence of sulfuric acid as a homogenous catalyst was studied with isothermal batch experiments at 60,70 and 80°C and at a different molar ratio of isopropnol to acetic acid. Investigation of kinetics of the reaction indicated that the low of molar ratio is favored for esterification reaction, this is due to the reaction is catalyzed by acid. The maximum conversion, approximately 60.6% was obtained at 80°C for molar ratio of 1:3 acid : alcohol. It was found that increasing temperature of the reaction, increases the rate constant and conversion at a certain mole ratio, that is due to the esterification is exothermic. The homogenous reaction has been described with simple power-law model. The chemical equilibrium combustion calculated from the kinetic model in agreement with the measured chemical equilibrium.

Keywords: artificial flavors, esterification, chemical equilibria, isothermal

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Authors: Hayder H. Kareem, Shunqi Pan

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Groundwater is a vital water resource in many areas in the world, particularly in the Middle-East region where the water resources become scarce and depleting. Sustainable management and planning of the groundwater resources become essential and urgent given the impact of the global climate change. In the recent years, numerical models have been widely used to predict the flow pattern and assess the water resources security, as well as the groundwater quality affected by the contaminants transported. In this study, MODFLOW is used to study the current status of groundwater resources and the risk of water resource security in the region centred at Al-Najaf City, which is located in the mid-west of Iraq and adjacent to the Euphrates River. In this study, a conceptual model is built using the geologic and hydrogeologic collected for the region, together with the Digital Elevation Model (DEM) data obtained from the "Global Land Cover Facility" (GLCF) and "United State Geological Survey" (USGS) for the study area. The computer model is also implemented with the distributions of 69 wells in the area with the steady pro-defined hydraulic head along its boundaries. The model is then applied with the recharge rate (from precipitation) of 7.55 mm/year, given from the analysis of the field data in the study area for the period of 1980-2014. The hydraulic conductivity from the measurements at the locations of wells is interpolated for model use. The model is calibrated with the measured hydraulic heads at the locations of 50 of 69 wells in the domain and results show a good agreement. The standard-error-of-estimate (SEE), root-mean-square errors (RMSE), Normalized RMSE and correlation coefficient are 0.297 m, 2.087 m, 6.899% and 0.971 respectively. Sensitivity analysis is also carried out, and it is found that the model is sensitive to recharge, particularly when the rate is greater than (15mm/year). Hydraulic conductivity is found to be another parameter which can affect the results significantly, therefore it requires high quality field data. The results show that there is a general flow pattern from the west to east of the study area, which agrees well with the observations and the gradient of the ground surface. It is found that with the current operational pumping rates of the wells in the area, a dry area is resulted in Al-Najaf City due to the large quantity of groundwater withdrawn. The computed water balance with the current operational pumping quantity shows that the Euphrates River supplies water into the groundwater of approximately 11759 m3/day, instead of gaining water of 11178 m3/day from the groundwater if no pumping from the wells. It is expected that the results obtained from the study can provide important information for the sustainable and effective planning and management of the regional groundwater resources for Al-Najaf City.

Keywords: Al-Najaf city, conceptual modelling, groundwater, unconfined aquifer, visual MODFLOW

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Authors: Naohiro Nakamura, Takuya Kinoshita, Hiroshi Fukuyama

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The 2011 off The Pacific Coast of Tohoku Earthquake caused considerable damage to wide areas of eastern Japan. A large number of earthquake observation records were obtained at various places. To design more earthquake-resistant buildings and improve earthquake disaster prevention, it is necessary to utilize these data to analyze and evaluate the behavior of a building during an earthquake. This paper presents an earthquake response simulation analysis (hereafter a seismic response analysis) that was conducted using data recorded during the main earthquake (hereafter the main shock) as well as the earthquakes before and after it. The data were obtained at a high-rise steel-reinforced concrete (SRC) building in the bay area of Tokyo. We first give an overview of the building, along with the characteristics of the earthquake motion and the building during the main shock. The data indicate that there was a change in the natural period before and after the earthquake. Next, we present the results of our seismic response analysis. First, the analysis model and conditions are shown, and then, the analysis result is compared with the observational records. Using the analysis result, we then study the effect of soil-structure interaction on the response of the building. By identifying the characteristics of the building during the earthquake (i.e., the 1st natural period and the 1st damping ratio) by the Auto-Regressive eXogenous (ARX) model, we compare the analysis result with the observational records so as to evaluate the accuracy of the response analysis. In this study, a lumped-mass system SR model was used to conduct a seismic response analysis using observational data as input waves. The main results of this study are as follows: 1) The observational records of the 3/11 main shock put it between a level 1 and level 2 earthquake. The result of the ground response analysis showed that the maximum shear strain in the ground was about 0.1% and that the possibility of liquefaction occurring was low. 2) During the 3/11 main shock, the observed wave showed that the eigenperiod of the building became longer; this behavior could be generally reproduced in the response analysis. This prolonged eigenperiod was due to the nonlinearity of the superstructure, and the effect of the nonlinearity of the ground seems to have been small. 3) As for the 4/11 aftershock, a continuous analysis in which the subject seismic wave was input after the 3/11 main shock was input was conducted. The analyzed values generally corresponded well with the observed values. This means that the effect of the nonlinearity of the main shock was retained by the building. It is important to consider this when conducting the response evaluation. 4) The first period and the damping ratio during a vibration were evaluated by an ARX model. Our results show that the response analysis model in this study is generally good at estimating a change in the response of the building during a vibration.

Keywords: ARX model, response analysis, SRC building, the 2011 off the Pacific Coast of Tohoku Earthquake

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Authors: Suk-Hyun Yu, Heeyong Kwon

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Recently PM-10 has become a social and global issue. It is one of major air pollutants which affect human health. Therefore, it needs to be forecasted rapidly and precisely. However, PM-10 comes from various emission sources, and its level of concentration is largely dependent on meteorological and geographical factors of local and global region, so the forecasting of PM-10 concentration is very difficult. Neural network model can be used in the case. But, there are few cases of high concentration PM-10. It makes the learning of the neural network model difficult. In this paper, we suggest a simple input balancing method when the data distribution is uneven. It is based on the probability of appearance of the data. Experimental results show that the input balancing makes the neural networks’ learning easy and improves the forecasting rates.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, air quality prediction, neural networks, pattern recognition, PM-10

Procedia PDF Downloads 232

Authors: Hatthaphone Silimanotham, Michael Henry

Abstract:

The effective maintenance of road bridge infrastructure is becoming a widely researched topic in the civil engineering field. Deterioration is one of the main issues in bridge performance, and it is necessary to understand how bridges deteriorate to optimally plan budget allocation for bridge maintenance. In Laos, many bridges are in a deteriorated state, which may affect the performance of the bridge. Due to bridge deterioration, the Ministry of Public Works and Transport is interested in the deterioration model to allocate the budget efficiently and support the bridge maintenance planning. A deterioration model can be used to predict the bridge condition in the future based on the observed behavior in the past. This paper analyzes the available inspection data of road bridges on the road classifications network to build deterioration prediction models for the main bridge type found at the provincial level (concrete slab, concrete girder, and steel truss) using probabilistic deterioration modeling by linear regression method. The analysis targets there has three bridge types in the 18 provinces of Laos and estimates the bridge deterioration rating for evaluating the bridge's remaining life. This research thus considers the relationship between the service period and the bridge condition to represent the probability of bridge condition in the future. The results of the study can be used for a variety of bridge management tasks, including maintenance planning, budgeting, and evaluating bridge assets.

Keywords: deterioration model, bridge condition, bridge management, probabilistic modeling

Procedia PDF Downloads 159

Authors: Beatriz Lafuente Alcázar, Yash Wani, Amit J. Nimunkar

Abstract:

Cardiovascular Diseases (CVDs) are the leading cause of death globally, and around 80% of sudden cardiac deaths are due to arrhythmias or irregular heartbeats. The majority of these pathologies are revealed by either short-term or long-term alterations in the electrocardiogram (ECG) morphology. The ECG is the main diagnostic tool in cardiology. It is a non-invasive, pain free procedure that measures the heart’s electrical activity and that allows the detecting of abnormal rhythms and underlying conditions. A cardiologist can diagnose a wide range of pathologies based on ECG’s form alterations, but the human interpretation is subjective and it is contingent to error. Moreover, ECG records can be quite prolonged in time, which can further complicate visual diagnosis, and deeply retard disease detection. In this context, deep learning methods have risen as a promising strategy to extract relevant features and eliminate individual subjectivity in ECG analysis. They facilitate the computation of large sets of data and can provide early and precise diagnoses. Therefore, the cardiology field is one of the areas that can most benefit from the implementation of deep learning algorithms. In the present study, a deep learning algorithm is trained following a novel approach, using a combination of different databases as the training set. The goal of the algorithm is to achieve the detection of R-peaks in ECG signals. Its performance is further evaluated in ECG signals with different origins and features to test the model’s ability to generalize its outcomes. Performance of the model for detection of R-peaks for clean and noisy ECGs is presented. The model is able to detect R-peaks in the presence of various types of noise, and when presented with data, it has not been trained. It is expected that this approach will increase the effectiveness and capacity of cardiologists to detect divergences in the normal cardiac activity of their patients.

Keywords: arrhythmia, deep learning, electrocardiogram, machine learning, R-peaks

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Authors: Zhen Cheng, Xinyu Dai, Shujian Huang, Jiajun Chen

Abstract:

Recently, explanatory natural language inference has attracted much attention for the interpretability of logic relationship prediction, which is also known as explanation generation for Natural Language Inference (NLI). Existing explanation generators based on discriminative Encoder-Decoder architecture have achieved noticeable results. However, we find that these discriminative generators usually generate explanations with correct evidence but incorrect logic semantic. It is due to that logic information is implicitly encoded in the premise-hypothesis pairs and difficult to model. Actually, logic information identically exists between premise-hypothesis pair and explanation. And it is easy to extract logic information that is explicitly contained in the target explanation. Hence we assume that there exists a latent space of logic information while generating explanations. Specifically, we propose a generative model called Variational Explanation Generator (VariationalEG) with a latent variable to model this space. Training with the guide of explicit logic information in target explanations, latent variable in VariationalEG could capture the implicit logic information in premise-hypothesis pairs effectively. Additionally, to tackle the problem of posterior collapse while training VariaztionalEG, we propose a simple yet effective approach called Logic Supervision on the latent variable to force it to encode logic information. Experiments on explanation generation benchmark—explanation-Stanford Natural Language Inference (e-SNLI) demonstrate that the proposed VariationalEG achieves significant improvement compared to previous studies and yields a state-of-the-art result. Furthermore, we perform the analysis of generated explanations to demonstrate the effect of the latent variable.

Keywords: natural language inference, explanation generation, variational auto-encoder, generative model

Procedia PDF Downloads 151