Search results for: annual trends
Commenced in January 2007
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Edition: International
Paper Count: 2538

Search results for: annual trends

2148 Recent Advancements and Future Trends in the Development of Antimicrobial Edible Films for Food Preservation

Authors: Raana Babadi Fathipour

Abstract:

Food packaging plays a crucial role in protecting food from unwanted external factors. Antibacterial edible films are a promising option for food packaging due to their biodegradability, environmental friendliness, and safety. This paper reviews recent research progress on antimicrobial edible films, focusing on those made from polysaccharides, proteins, and lipids. Polysaccharides and proteins are the primary components of antimicrobial edible films, while lipids primarily serve as plasticizers and carriers for active substances in composite films. For instance, second-generation liposomes have shown great potential as carriers for antimicrobial substances and other bioactive compounds due to their exceptional stability. Furthermore, this paper analyzes recent advancements and future trends in antimicrobial edible films. One promising direction is the integration of antimicrobial edible film materials with delivery systems, such as nanoemulsion and microencapsulation technologies, to ensure stable loading of bioactive substances. Another emerging area of interest is the development of smart and active packaging that allows consumers to assess the freshness of food products without opening the package. pH-sensitive films and smart fluorescent "on-off" sensors for humidity are currently being explored as materials for smart and active packaging to monitor food product freshness, with further exploration anticipated in the future.

Keywords: antimicrobial edible film, biopolymer, antimicrobial agent, encapsulation, antimicrobial assay

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2147 Retrospective Study on the Prognosis of Patients with New-Onset Atrial Fibrillation to Evaluate the Risk of Developing Occult Cancer in Absence of Concurrent Chronic Inflammatory Disease

Authors: Helen Huang, Francisco Javier Quesada Ocet, Blanca Quesada Oce, Javier Jimenez Bello, Victor Palanca Gil, Alba Cervero Rubio, Ana Paya Chaume, Alejandro Herreros-Pomares, Fernando Vidal-Vanaclocha, Rafael Paya Serrano, Aurelio Quesada Dorador, Monica Soliman

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Background: Cancer favors both the pro-inflammatory state and autonomic dysfunction, two important mechanisms in the genesis of AF. Atrial remodeling might be caused as a result of paraneoplastic conditions or the result of direct expression of neoplasia. Here, we hypothesize that cancer, through inflammatory mediators, may favor the appearance of AF and patients with the first episode of AF could have a higher risk of developing cancer. Method: Data was collected from patients who attended the emergency department of our hospital for the first episode of AF, diagnosed electrocardiographically, between 2010-2015 (n = 712). The minimum follow-up was 2 years, recording the appearance of cancer, total mortality, recurrences of AF and other events. Patients who developed cancer and those who did not during the 2 years after the onset of AF were compared, as well as with the incidence of cancer in Spain in 2012. Results: After 2 years, 35 patients (4.91%) were diagnosed with cancer, with an annual incidence of 2.45%. Hematological neoplasms were the most frequent (34.28%). The cancer group was older (76.68 +/-12.75 years vs 74.16 +/-12.71; p <0.05) and had fewer typical symptoms (palpitations) (33.38% vs 14.28% , p <0.05). The incidence of cancer in Spain during 2012 was 0.46%, much lower than our sample. When comparing the incidence by age, these differences were maintained both in those over 65 years of age and in those under 65 years of age (2.17% vs. 0.28%; 0.28% vs. 0.18% respectively). Discussion: Therefore, a high incidence of cancer in patients with the first episode of AF was observed (the annual incidence of 2.45% after the onset of AF is 6.1 times that of the general population). After the evaluation of patients with AF in their first detected episode, surveillance of the appearance of cancer should be considered in clinical practice.

Keywords: cancer, cardiovascular outcomes, atrial fibrillation, inflammation

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2146 Radon-222 Concentration and Potential Risk to Workers of Al-Jalamid Phosphate Mines, North Province, Saudi Arabia

Authors: El-Said. I. Shabana, Mohammad S. Tayeb, Maher M. T. Qutub, Abdulraheem A. Kinsara

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Usually, phosphate deposits contain 238U and 232Th in addition to their decay products. Due to their different pathways in the environment, the 238U/232Th activity concentration ratio usually found to be greater than unity in phosphate sediments. The presence of these radionuclides creates a potential need to control exposure of workers in the mining and processing activities of the phosphate minerals in accordance with IAEA safety standards. The greatest dose to workers comes from exposure to radon, especially 222Rn from the uranium series, and has to be controlled. In this regard, radon (222Rn) was measured in the atmosphere (indoor and outdoor) of Al-Jalamid phosphate-mines working area using a portable radon-measurement instrument RAD7, in a purpose of radiation protection. Radon was measured in 61 sites inside the open phosphate mines, the phosphate upgrading facility (offices and rooms of the workers, and in some open-air sites) and in the dwellings of the workers residence-village that lies at about 3 km from the mines working area. The obtained results indicated that the average indoor radon concentration was about 48.4 Bq/m3. Inside the upgrading facility, the average outdoor concentrations were 10.8 and 9.7 Bq/m3 in the concentrate piles and crushing areas, respectively. It was 12.3 Bq/m3 in the atmosphere of the open mines. These values are comparable with the global average values. Based on the average values, the annual effective dose due to radon inhalation was calculated and risk estimates have been done. The average annual effective dose to workers due to the radon inhalation was estimated by 1.32 mSv. The potential excess risk of lung cancer mortality that could be attributed to radon, when considering the lifetime exposure, was estimated by 53.0x10-4. The results have been discussed in detail.

Keywords: dosimetry, environmental monitoring, phosphate deposits, radiation protection, radon

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2145 Estimation of Exhaust and Non-Exhaust Particulate Matter Emissions’ Share from On-Road Vehicles in Addis Ababa City

Authors: Solomon Neway Jida, Jean-Francois Hetet, Pascal Chesse

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Vehicular emission is the key source of air pollution in the urban environment. This includes both fine particles (PM2.5) and coarse particulate matters (PM10). However, particulate matter emissions from road traffic comprise emissions from exhaust tailpipe and emissions due to wear and tear of the vehicle part such as brake, tire and clutch and re-suspension of dust (non-exhaust emission). This study estimates the share of the two sources of pollutant particle emissions from on-roadside vehicles in the Addis Ababa municipality, Ethiopia. To calculate its share, two methods were applied; the exhaust-tailpipe emissions were calculated using the Europeans emission inventory Tier II method and Tier I for the non-exhaust emissions (like vehicle tire wear, brake, and road surface wear). The results show that of the total traffic-related particulate emissions in the city, 63% emitted from vehicle exhaust and the remaining 37% from non-exhaust sources. The annual roads transport exhaust emission shares around 2394 tons of particles from all vehicle categories. However, from the total yearly non-exhaust particulate matter emissions’ contribution, tire and brake wear shared around 65% and 35% emanated by road-surface wear. Furthermore, vehicle tire and brake wear were responsible for annual 584.8 tons of coarse particles (PM10) and 314.4 tons of fine particle matter (PM2.5) emissions in the city whereas surface wear emissions were responsible for around 313.7 tons of PM10 and 169.9 tons of PM2.5 pollutant emissions in the city. This suggests that non-exhaust sources might be as significant as exhaust sources and have a considerable contribution to the impact on air quality.

Keywords: Addis Ababa, automotive emission, emission estimation, particulate matters

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2144 Uncertainty in Near-Term Global Surface Warming Linked to Pacific Trade Wind Variability

Authors: M. Hadi Bordbar, Matthew England, Alex Sen Gupta, Agus Santoso, Andrea Taschetto, Thomas Martin, Wonsun Park, Mojib Latif

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Climate models generally simulate long-term reductions in the Pacific Walker Circulation with increasing atmospheric greenhouse gases. However, over two recent decades (1992-2011) there was a strong intensification of the Pacific Trade Winds that is linked with a slowdown in global surface warming. Using large ensembles of multiple climate models forced by increasing atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations and starting from different ocean and/or atmospheric initial conditions, we reveal very diverse 20-year trends in the tropical Pacific climate associated with a considerable uncertainty in the globally averaged surface air temperature (SAT) in each model ensemble. This result suggests low confidence in our ability to accurately predict SAT trends over 20-year timescale only from external forcing. We show, however, that the uncertainty can be reduced when the initial oceanic state is adequately known and well represented in the model. Our analyses suggest that internal variability in the Pacific trade winds can mask the anthropogenic signal over a 20-year time frame, and drive transitions between periods of accelerated global warming and temporary slowdown periods.

Keywords: trade winds, walker circulation, hiatus in the global surface warming, internal climate variability

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2143 Analysis of Lesotho Wool Production and Quality Trends 2008-2018

Authors: Papali Maqalika

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Lesotho farmers produce significant quantities of Merino wool of a quality competitive on the global market and make a substantial impact on the economy of Lesotho. However, even with the economic contribution, the production and quality information and trends of this fibre has been recognised nor documented. This is a sombre shortcoming as Lesotho wool is unknown on international markets. The situation is worsened by the fact that Lesotho wool is auction together with South African wool, trading and benchmarking Lesotho wool are difficult not to mention attempts to advance its production and quality. Based on the information above, available data on Lesotho wool for 10 years were collected and analysed for trends to used in benchmarking where applicable. The fibre properties analysed include fibre diameter (fineness), vegetable matter and yield, application and price. These were selected because they are fundamental in determining fibre quality and price. Production of wool in Lesotho has increased slightly over the ten years covered by this study. It also became apparent that production and quality trends of Lesotho wool are greatly influenced by the farming practices, breed of sheep and climatic conditions. Greater adoption of the merino sheep breed, sheds/barns and sheep coats are suggested as ways to reduce mortality rate (due to extremely cold temperatures), to reduce the vegetable matter on the fibre thus improving the quality and increase yield per sheep and production as a whole. Some farming practices such as the lack of barns, supplementary feeding and veterinary care present constraints in wool production. The districts in the Highlands region were found to have the highest production of mostly wool, this being ascribed to better pastures, climatic, social and other conditions conducive to wool production. The production of Lesotho wool and its quality can be improved further, possibly because of the interventions the Ministry of Agriculture introduced through the Small Agricultural and Development Project (SADP) and other appropriate initiatives by the National Wool and Mohair Growers Association (NWMGA). The challenge however, remains the lack of direct involvement of the wool growers (farmers) in decisions making and policy development, this potentially influences and may lead to the reluctance to adopt the strategies. In some cases, the wool growers do not receive the benefits associated with the interventions immediately. Based on these discoveries; it is recommended that the relevant educators and researchers in wool and textile science, as well as the local wool farmers in Lesotho, be represented in policy and other decision making forums relating to these interventions. In this way, educational campaigns and training workshops will be demand driven with a better chance of adoption and success. This is because the direct beneficiaries will have been involved at inception and they will have a sense of ownership as well as intent to see them through successfully.

Keywords: lesotho wool, wool quality, wool production, lesotho economy, global market, apparel wool, database, textile science, exports, animal farming practices, intimate apparel, interventions

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2142 Trends of Change of Political Participation of Young Voters in Indonesia

Authors: Najmuddin Rasul

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The purpose of this study is to determine whether media usage and change of citizenship norms influence trends of change of political participation of young voters in Indonesia. The focus of this study is to examine citizenship norms in the context of the development of information and communication technology influence political participation in the context of Indonesia's transition to democracy. The main theoretical framework is media and political participation. For data gathering, 384 young voters between the ages of 17 to 40 years were interviewed in Padang, West Sumatra, Indonesia. The results of this study reveal that gender, age and educational background of respondents did not influence significantly media usage and citizenship norms. The results also show that educational background is not a factor that distinguishes media usage but it becomes differentiating factor in citizenship norms. The results further show that media usage has a significant correlation with citizenship norms and citizenship norms has a significant relationship with political participation. In addition, media usage and citizenship norm significantly influence political participation. The sub-dimensions the citizenship norms (compliance, duty, and engaged citizenship) provides a significant contribution to the sub-dimensions of political participation (traditional political participation, modern political participation, civic political participation). Based on the findings it can be concluded that the political euphoria in the era of transition to democracy has changed pattern of media usage and citizenship norms among the young generation in Indonesia.

Keywords: political participation, media, citizenship norms, democracy, young voters, Indonesia

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2141 Digitalized Cargo Coordination to Eliminate Emissions in the Shipping Ecosystem: A System Dynamical Approach

Authors: Henry Schwartz, Bogdan Iancu, Magnus Gustafsson, Johan Lilius

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The shipping sector generates significant amounts of carbon emissions on annual basis. The excess amount of carbon dioxide is harmful for both the environment and the society, and partly for that reason, there is acute interest to decrease the volume of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions in shipping. The usage of the existing cargo carrying capacity can be maximized, and the share of time used in actual transportation operations could be increased if the whole transportation and logistics chain was optimized with the aid of information sharing done through a centralized marketplace and an information-sharing platform. The outcome of this change would be decreased carbon dioxide emission volumes produced per each metric ton of cargo transported by a vessel. Cargo coordination is a platform under development that matches the need for waterborne transportation services with the ships that operate at a given moment in time. In this research, the transition towards adopting cargo coordination is modelled with system dynamics. The model encompasses the complex supply-demand relationships of ship operators and cargo owners. The built scenarios predict the pace at which different stakeholders start using the digitalized platform and by doing so reduce the amount of annual CO2 emissions generated. To improve the reliability of the results, various sensitivity analyses considering the pace of transition as well as the overall impact on the environment (carbon dioxide emissions per amount of cargo transported) are conducted. The results of the study can be used to support investors and politicians in decision making towards more environmentally sustainable solutions. In addition, the model provides concepts and ideas for a wider discussion considering the paths towards carbon neutral transportation.

Keywords: carbon dioxide emissions, energy efficiency, sustainable transportation, system dynamics

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2140 Evaluation of NASA POWER and CRU Precipitation and Temperature Datasets over a Desert-prone Yobe River Basin: An Investigation of the Impact of Drought in the North-East Arid Zone of Nigeria

Authors: Yusuf Dawa Sidi, Abdulrahman Bulama Bizi

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The most dependable and precise source of climate data is often gauge observation. However, long-term records of gauge observations, on the other hand, are unavailable in many regions around the world. In recent years, a number of gridded climate datasets with high spatial and temporal resolutions have emerged as viable alternatives to gauge-based measurements. However, it is crucial to thoroughly evaluate their performance prior to utilising them in hydroclimatic applications. Therefore, this study aims to assess the effectiveness of NASA Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resources (NASA POWER) and Climate Research Unit (CRU) datasets in accurately estimating precipitation and temperature patterns within the dry region of Nigeria from 1990 to 2020. The study employs widely used statistical metrics and the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) to effectively capture the monthly variability of precipitation and temperature and inter-annual anomalies in rainfall. The findings suggest that CRU exhibited superior performance compared to NASA POWER in terms of monthly precipitation and minimum and maximum temperatures, demonstrating a high correlation and much lower error values for both RMSE and MAE. Nevertheless, NASA POWER has exhibited a moderate agreement with gauge observations in accurately replicating monthly precipitation. The analysis of the SPI reveals that the CRU product exhibits superior performance compared to NASA POWER in accurately reflecting inter-annual variations in rainfall anomalies. The findings of this study indicate that the CRU gridded product is often regarded as the most favourable gridded precipitation product.

Keywords: CRU, climate change, precipitation, SPI, temperature

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2139 Influence of Long-Term Variability in Atmospheric Parameters on Ocean State over the Head Bay of Bengal

Authors: Anindita Patra, Prasad K. Bhaskaran

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The atmosphere-ocean is a dynamically linked system that influences the exchange of energy, mass, and gas at the air-sea interface. The exchange of energy takes place in the form of sensible heat, latent heat, and momentum commonly referred to as fluxes along the atmosphere-ocean boundary. The large scale features such as El Nino and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a classic example on the interaction mechanism that occurs along the air-sea interface that deals with the inter-annual variability of the Earth’s Climate System. Most importantly the ocean and atmosphere as a coupled system acts in tandem thereby maintaining the energy balance of the climate system, a manifestation of the coupled air-sea interaction process. The present work is an attempt to understand the long-term variability in atmospheric parameters (from surface to upper levels) and investigate their role in influencing the surface ocean variables. More specifically the influence of atmospheric circulation and its variability influencing the mean Sea Level Pressure (SLP) has been explored. The study reports on a critical examination of both ocean-atmosphere parameters during a monsoon season over the head Bay of Bengal region. A trend analysis has been carried out for several atmospheric parameters such as the air temperature, geo-potential height, and omega (vertical velocity) for different vertical levels in the atmosphere (from surface to the troposphere) covering a period from 1992 to 2012. The Reanalysis 2 dataset from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-Department of Energy (NCEP-DOE) was used in this study. The study signifies that the variability in air temperature and omega corroborates with the variation noticed in geo-potential height. Further, the study advocates that for the lower atmosphere the geo-potential heights depict a typical east-west contrast exhibiting a zonal dipole behavior over the study domain. In addition, the study clearly brings to light that the variations over different levels in the atmosphere plays a pivotal role in supporting the observed dipole pattern as clearly evidenced from the trends in SLP, associated surface wind speed and significant wave height over the study domain.

Keywords: air temperature, geopotential height, head Bay of Bengal, long-term variability, NCEP reanalysis 2, omega, wind-waves

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2138 Monitoring Land Cover/Land Use Change in Rupandehi District by Optimising Remotely Sensed Image

Authors: Hritik Bhattarai

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Land use and land cover play a crucial role in preserving and managing Earth's natural resources. Various factors, such as economic, demographic, social, cultural, technological, and environmental processes, contribute to changes in land use and land cover (LULC). Rupandehi District is significantly influenced by a combination of driving forces, including its geographical location, rapid population growth, economic opportunities, globalization, tourism activities, and political events. Urbanization and urban growth in the region have been occurring in an unplanned manner, with internal migration and natural population growth being the primary contributors. Internal migration, particularly from neighboring districts in the higher and lower Himalayan regions, has been high, leading to increased population growth and density. This study utilizes geospatial technology, specifically geographic information system (GIS), to analyze and illustrate the land cover and land use changes in the Rupandehi district for the years 2009 and 2019, using freely available Landsat images. The identified land cover categories include built-up area, cropland, Das-Gaja, forest, grassland, other woodland, riverbed, and water. The statistical analysis of the data over the 10-year period (2009-2019) reveals significant percentage changes in LULC. Notably, Das-Gaja shows a minimal change of 99.9%, while water and forest exhibit increases of 34.5% and 98.6%, respectively. Riverbed and built-up areas experience changes of 95.3% and 39.6%, respectively. Cropland and grassland, however, show concerning decreases of 102.6% and 140.0%, respectively. Other woodland also indicates a change of 50.6%. The most noteworthy trends are the substantial increase in water areas and built-up areas, leading to the degradation of agricultural and open spaces. This emphasizes the urgent need for effective urban planning activities to ensure the development of a sustainable city. While Das-Gaja seems unaffected, the decreasing trends in cropland and grassland, accompanied by the increasing built-up areas, are unsatisfactory. It is imperative for relevant authorities to be aware of these trends and implement proactive measures for sustainable urban development.

Keywords: land use and land cover, geospatial, urbanization, geographic information system, sustainable urban development

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2137 The Effect of Recycling on Price Volatility of Critical Metals in the EU (2010-2019): An Application of Multivariate GARCH Family Models

Authors: Marc Evenst Jn Jacques, Sophie Bernard

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Electrical and electronic applications, as well as rechargeable batteries, are common in any economy. They also contain a number of important and valuable metals. It is critical to investigate the impact of these new materials or volume sources on the metal market dynamics. This paper investigates the impact of responsible recycling within the European region on metal price volatility. As far as we know, no empirical studies have been conducted to assess the role of metal recycling in metal market price volatility. The goal of this paper is to test the claim that metal recycling helps to cushion price volatility. A set of circular economy indicators/variables, namely, 1) annual total trade values of recycled metals, 2) annual volume of scrap traded and 3) circular material use rate, and 4) information about recycling, are used to estimate the volatility of monthly spot prices of regular metals. A combination of the GARCH-MIDAS model for mixed frequency data sampling and a simple GARCH (1,1) model for the same frequency variables was adopted to examine the potential links between each variable and price volatility. We discovered that from 2010 to 2019, except for Nickel, scrap consumption (Millions of tons), Scrap Trade Values, and Recycled Material use rate had no significant impact on the price volatility of standard metals (Aluminum, Lead) and precious metals (Gold and Platinum). Worldwide interest in recycling has no impact on returns or volatility. Specific interest in metal recycling did have a link to the mean return equation for Aluminum, Gold and to the volatility equation for lead and Nickel.

Keywords: recycling, circular economy, price volatility, GARCH, mixed data sampling

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2136 Whole Body Vibration and Low Back Disorder among Saskatchewan Farmers: A Prospective Cohort Study

Authors: Samuel Kwaku Essien, Catherine Trask, Niels Koehncke, Brenna Bath

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Background: Low back disorder (LBD) is the most common musculoskeletal problem among farmers, with higher prevalence than other occupations. Operators of tractors and other farm machinery such as combines or all-terrain vehicles (ATV) can have considerable cumulative exposure to whole body vibration (WBV). Although there appears to be an association between LBD and WBV, lack of prospective studies makes the relationship between LBD and WBV unclear. Purpose: This study investigates the association between WBV and LBD among Saskatchewan farmers using a prospective cohort study Methods: The Saskatchewan Farm Injury Cohort Study Phase I (2007) and II (2013) data were used. Baseline data were collected via postal questionnaire on accumulated yearly tractor, combine, and ATV use as well as several covariates to support a biopsychosocial model of LBD. Follow-up data on musculoskeletal symptoms were collected for the 6-year with sample size of 1149. Questions on ‘low back trouble’ (ache, pain, discomfort) experienced in the last 12 months answered by farmer participants as ‘yes’ or ‘no’. A GEE-modified Poisson approach was performed using SPSS 22 and SAS 9.4. Results: Twelve-month Prevalence of LBD was 59.8%. In multivariate analysis of the 6-year follow-up, LBD was associated with ATV operation and tractor operation, with a dose-response relationship for annual accumulated tractor operation. Although combine operation ≥ 61 hrs/year was related to LBD in bivariate analysis, this difference did not persist after adjustment for confounder. Age was found to be a confounder in relationship between WBV and LBD and no interactions were found. Conclusion: Longer annual tractor operation and older age are important predictors of LBD symptoms in farmers. Future research involving direct measurement can help identify appropriate prevention strategies.

Keywords: agriculture, low back disorder, low back pain, occupational health

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2135 Frontier Dynamic Tracking in the Field of Urban Plant and Habitat Research: Data Visualization and Analysis Based on Journal Literature

Authors: Shao Qi

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The article uses the CiteSpace knowledge graph analysis tool to sort and visualize the journal literature on urban plants and habitats in the Web of Science and China National Knowledge Infrastructure databases. Based on a comprehensive interpretation of the visualization results of various data sources and the description of the intrinsic relationship between high-frequency keywords using knowledge mapping, the research hotspots, processes and evolution trends in this field are analyzed. Relevant case studies are also conducted for the hotspot contents to explore the means of landscape intervention and synthesize the understanding of research theories. The results show that (1) from 1999 to 2022, the research direction of urban plants and habitats gradually changed from focusing on plant and animal extinction and biological invasion to the field of human urban habitat creation, ecological restoration, and ecosystem services. (2) The results of keyword emergence and keyword growth trend analysis show that habitat creation research has shown a rapid and stable growth trend since 2017, and ecological restoration has gained long-term sustained attention since 2004. The hotspots of future research on urban plants and habitats in China may focus on habitat creation and ecological restoration.

Keywords: research trends, visual analysis, habitat creation, ecological restoration

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2134 Increasing Access to Upper Limb Reconstruction in Cervical Spinal Cord Injury

Authors: Michelle Jennett, Jana Dengler, Maytal Perlman

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Background: Cervical spinal cord injury (SCI) is a devastating event that results in upper limb paralysis, loss of independence, and disability. People living with cervical SCI have identified improvement of upper limb function as a top priority. Nerve and tendon transfer surgery has successfully restored upper limb function in cervical SCI but is not universally used or available to all eligible individuals. This exploratory mixed-methods study used an implementation science approach to better understand these factors that influence access to upper limb reconstruction in the Canadian context and design an intervention to increase access to care. Methods: Data from the Canadian Institute for Health Information’s Discharge Abstracts Database (CIHI-DAD) and the National Ambulatory Care Reporting System (NACRS) were used to determine the annual rate of nerve transfer and tendon transfer surgeries performed in cervical SCI in Canada over the last 15 years. Semi-structured interviews informed by the consolidated framework for implementation research (CFIR) were used to explore Ontario healthcare provider knowledge and practices around upper limb reconstruction. An inductive, iterative constant comparative process involving descriptive and interpretive analyses was used to identify themes that emerged from the data. Results: Healthcare providers (n = 10 upper extremity surgeons, n = 10 SCI physiatrists, n = 12 physical and occupational therapists working with individuals with SCI) were interviewed about their knowledge and perceptions of upper limb reconstruction and their current practices and discussions around upper limb reconstruction. Data analysis is currently underway and will be presented. Regional variation in rates of upper limb reconstruction and trends over time are also currently being analyzed. Conclusions: Utilization of nerve and tendon transfer surgery to improve upper limb reconstruction in Canada remains low. There are a complex array of interrelated individual-, provider- and system-level barriers that prevent individuals with cervical SCI from accessing upper limb reconstruction. In order to offer equitable access to care, a multi-modal approach addressing current barriers is required.

Keywords: cervical spinal cord injury, nerve and tendon transfer surgery, spinal cord injury, upper extremity reconstruction

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2133 Stability Analysis of Green Coffee Export Markets of Ethiopia: Markov-Chain Analysis

Authors: Gabriel Woldu, Maria Sassi

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Coffee performs a pivotal role in Ethiopia's GDP, revenue, employment, domestic demand, and export earnings. Ethiopia's coffee production and exports show high variability in the amount of production and export earnings. Despite being the continent's fifth-largest coffee producer, Ethiopia has not developed its ability to shine as a major exporter in the globe's green coffee exports. Ethiopian coffee exports were not stable and had high volume and earnings fluctuations. The main aim of this study was to analyze the dynamics of the export of coffee variation to different importing nations using a first-order Markov Chain model. 14 years of time-series data has been used to examine the direction and structural change in the export of coffee. A compound annual growth rate (CAGR) was used to determine the annual growth rate in the coffee export quantity, value, and per-unit price over the study period. The major export markets for Ethiopian coffee were Germany, Japan, and the USA, which were more stable, while countries such as France, Italy, Belgium, and Saudi Arabia were less stable and had low retention rates for Ethiopian coffee. The study, therefore, recommends that Ethiopia should again revitalize its market to France, Italy, Belgium, and Saudi Arabia, as these countries are the major coffee-consuming countries in the world to boost its export stake to the global coffee markets in the future. In order to further enhance export stability, the Ethiopian Government and other stakeholders in the coffee sector should have to work on reducing the volatility of coffee output and exports in order to improve production and quality efficiency, so that stabilize markets as well as to make the product attractive and price competitive in the importing countries.

Keywords: coffee, CAGR, Markov chain, direction of trade, Ethiopia

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2132 An Application of Remote Sensing for Modeling Local Warming Trend

Authors: Khan R. Rahaman, Quazi K. Hassan

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Global changes in climate, environment, economies, populations, governments, institutions, and cultures converge in localities. Changes at a local scale, in turn, contribute to global changes as well as being affected by them. Our hypothesis is built on a consideration that temperature does vary at local level (i.e., termed as local warming) in comparison to the predicted models at the regional and/or global scale. To date, the bulk of the research relating local places to global climate change has been top-down, from the global toward the local, concentrating on methods of impact analysis that use as a starting point climate change scenarios derived from global models, even though these have little regional or local specificity. Thus, our focus is to understand such trends over the southern Alberta, which will enable decision makers, scientists, researcher community, and local people to adapt their policies based on local level temperature variations and to act accordingly. Specific objectives in this study are: (i) to understand the local warming (temperature in particular) trend in context of temperature normal during the period 1961-2010 at point locations using meteorological data; (ii) to validate the data by using specific yearly data, and (iii) to delineate the spatial extent of the local warming trends and understanding influential factors to adopt situation by local governments. Existing data has brought the evidence of such changes and future research emphasis will be given to validate this hypothesis based on remotely sensed data (i.e. MODIS product by NASA).

Keywords: local warming, climate change, urban area, Alberta, Canada

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2131 Assessment of the Impact of Atmospheric Air, Drinking Water and Socio-Economic Indicators on the Primary Incidence of Children in Altai Krai

Authors: A. P. Pashkov

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The number of environmental factors that adversely affect children's health is growing every year; their combination in each territory is different. The contribution of socio-economic factors to the health status of the younger generation is increasing. It is the child’s body that is most sensitive to changes in environmental conditions, responding to this with a deterioration in health. Over the past years, scientists have determined the influence of environmental factors and the incidence of children. Currently, there is a tendency to study regional characteristics of the interaction of a combination of environmental factors with the child's body. The aim of the work was to identify trends in the primary non-infectious morbidity of the children of the Altai Territory as a unique region that combines territories with different levels of environmental quality indicators, as well as to assess the effect of atmospheric air, drinking water and socio-economic indicators on the incidence of children in the region. An unfavorable tendency has been revealed in the region for incidence of such nosological groups as neoplasms, including malignant ones, diseases of the endocrine system, including obesity and thyroid disease, diseases of the circulatory system, digestive diseases, diseases of the genitourinary system, congenital anomalies, and respiratory diseases. Between some groups of diseases revealed a pattern of geographical distribution during mapping and a significant correlation. Some nosologies have a relationship with socio-economic indicators for an integrated assessment: circulatory system diseases, respiratory diseases (direct connection), endocrine system diseases, eating disorders, and metabolic disorders (feedback). The analysis of associations of the incidence of children with average annual concentrations of substances that pollute the air and drinking water showed the existence of reliable correlation in areas of critical and intense degree of environmental quality. This fact confirms that the population living in contaminated areas is subject to the negative influence of environmental factors, which immediately affects the health status of children. The results obtained indicate the need for a detailed assessment of the influence of environmental factors on the incidence of children in the regional aspect, the formation of a database, and the development of automated programs that can predict the incidence in each specific territory. This will increase the effectiveness, including economic of preventive measures.

Keywords: incidence of children, regional features, socio-economic factors, environmental factors

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2130 Earnings Management and Tone Management: Evidence from the UK

Authors: Salah Kayed Kayed, Jessica Hong Yang

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This study investigates, whether earnings management in the audited financial statements is associated with tone management in the narrative sections of the annual report in the UK. Earnings management and narrative disclosure are communication strategies used from managers to communicate with investors or other users. Because earnings management and narrative disclosure stem from managers, they can exploit this by doing manipulation in their earnings, and simultaneously disclosing qualitative text (narrative information) in their reports as a tone of words, which will affect users’ perception, and hence users will be misinformed. The association between earnings and tone management can be explained by the self-serving, through cognitive reference points, theory. The sample period lasts from 2010 to 2015, and the sample comprises all non-financial firms that consider under FTSE 350 in any year during the sample period. A list of words from previous research is used to measure the tone in the narrative sections of the annual report. Because this study focuses on the managerial strategic choice and the subjective issues that come from management, it uses the abnormal tone to capture the managerial discretion on tone, and a number of different discretionary accruals proxies to measure earnings management, where accruals management is considered as a manipulation tool from managers to change the users' perception. This research is motivated to fulfil the literature gap by examining the association between earnings and tone management. Moreover, if firms that apply earnings management use tone management to mislead investors, it is beneficial for investors, policy makers, standard setters, or other users to know whether there is an association between earnings management and tone management. Clearly, we believe that this study is fundamental in the accounting context, where it evaluates the communication strategies that are used in firms' financial reports. Consistent with prior research, it is expected that tone management is positively associated with earnings management. This means that firms that use earnings management have incentives to manipulate in their narrative disclosure through tone of words, to reflect a good perception for users, which will conceal the earnings management techniques used in their reporting.

Keywords: earnings management, FTSE 350, narrative disclosure, tone management

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2129 Modeling Local Warming Trend: An Application of Remote Sensing Technique

Authors: Khan R. Rahaman, Quazi K. Hassan

Abstract:

Global changes in climate, environment, economies, populations, governments, institutions, and cultures converge in localities. Changes at a local scale, in turn, contribute to global changes as well as being affected by them. Our hypothesis is built on a consideration that temperature does vary at local level (i.e., termed as local warming) in comparison to the predicted models at the regional and/or global scale. To date, the bulk of the research relating local places to global climate change has been top-down, from the global toward the local, concentrating on methods of impact analysis that use as a starting point climate change scenarios derived from global models, even though these have little regional or local specificity. Thus, our focus is to understand such trends over the southern Alberta, which will enable decision makers, scientists, researcher community, and local people to adapt their policies based on local level temperature variations and to act accordingly. Specific objectives in this study are: (i) to understand the local warming (temperature in particular) trend in context of temperature normal during the period 1961-2010 at point locations using meteorological data; (ii) to validate the data by using specific yearly data, and (iii) to delineate the spatial extent of the local warming trends and understanding influential factors to adopt situation by local governments. Existing data has brought the evidence of such changes and future research emphasis will be given to validate this hypothesis based on remotely sensed data (i.e. MODIS product by NASA).

Keywords: local warming, climate change, urban area, Alberta, Canada

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2128 Six Years Antimicrobial Resistance Trends among Bacterial Isolates in Amhara National Regional State, Ethiopia

Authors: Asrat Agalu Abejew

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Background: Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is a silent tsunami and one of the top global threats to health care and public health. It is one of the common agendas globally and in Ethiopia. Emerging AMR will be a double burden to Ethiopia, which is facing a series of problems from infectious disease morbidity and mortality. In Ethiopia, although there are attempts to document AMR in healthcare institutions, comprehensive and all-inclusive analysis is still lacking. Thus, this study is aimed to determine trends in AMR from 2016-2021. Methods: A retrospective analysis of secondary data recorded in the Amhara Public Health Institute (APHI) from 2016 to 2021 G.C was conducted. Blood, Urine, Stool, Swabs, Discharge, body effusions, and other Microbiological specimens were collected from each study participants, and Bacteria identification and Resistance tests were done using the standard microbiologic procedure. Data was extracted from excel in August 2022, Trends in AMR were analyzed, and the results were described. In addition, the chi-square (X2) test and binary logistic regression were used, and a P. value < 0.05 was used to determine a significant association. Results: During 6 years period, there were 25143 culture and susceptibility tests. Overall, 265 (46.2%) bacteria were resistant to 2-4 antibiotics, 253 (44.2%) to 5-7 antibiotics, and 56 (9.7%) to >=8 antibiotics. The gram-negative bacteria were 166 (43.9%), 155 (41.5%), and 55 (14.6%) resistant to 2-4, 5-7, and ≥8 antibiotics, respectively, whereas 99(50.8%), 96(49.2% and 1 (0.5%) of gram-positive bacteria were resistant to 2-4, 5-7 and ≥8 antibiotics respectively. K. pneumonia 3783 (15.67%) and E. coli 3199 (13.25%) were the most commonly isolated bacteria, and the overall prevalence of AMR was 2605 (59.9%), where K. pneumonia 743 (80.24%), E. cloacae 196 (74.81%), A. baumannii 213 (66.56%) being the most common resistant bacteria for antibiotics tested. Except for a slight decline during 2020 (6469 (25.4%)), the overall trend of AMR is rising from year to year, with a peak in 2019 (8480 (33.7%)) and in 2021 (7508 (29.9%). If left un-intervened, the trend in AMR will increase by 78% of variation from the study period, as explained by the differences in years (R2=0.7799). Ampicillin, Augmentin, ciprofloxacin, cotrimoxazole, tetracycline, and Tobramycin were almost resistant to common bacteria they were tested. Conclusion: AMR is linearly increasing during the last 6 years. If left as it is without appropriate intervention after 15 years (2030 E.C), AMR will increase by 338.7%. A growing number of multi-drug resistant bacteria is an alarm to awake policymakers and those who do have the concern to intervene before it is too late. This calls for a periodic, integrated, and continuous system to determine the prevalence of AMR in commonly used antibiotics.

Keywords: AMR, trend, pattern, MDR

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2127 Uptake of Cervical Cancer Screening Services and Associated Factors at KISWA HCII, Kampala, Uganda

Authors: Mary Kiviiri Nakawuka, Mary Namugalu, Andrew Otiti

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BACKGROUND Cervical cancer is the fourth most common cancer in women and seventh overall among all cancers worldwide. It accounts for about 7.5% of all female-cancer deaths with 85% occurring in low and middle-income countries and the first most common female cancer in women aged 15 to 44 years in Uganda with an annual number of new cases at 3,915 and 2,275 annual number of cervical cancer deaths in 2012 (ICO INFORMATION CENTRE ON HPV AND CANCER, 2017).Despite the available free cervical cancer screening services whose uptake has been documented to improve the chances of successful treatment of pre-cancers and cancers among women of reproductive age, there is a low uptake of these services thus we sought to examine the uptake of cervical cancer services and associated factors among women of reproductive age (25-49) attending the ART clinic of KISWA HCII in Kampala, Uganda METHODS The research was carried out in the ART clinic of KISWA HCII among 385 participants. An analytical, cross-sectional study with quantitative methods of data collection was used. The study adopted a non-probability convenience sampling method to select participants. Quantitative data was collected through structured questionnaires. RESULTS 72.2% of the participants were found to have been screened for cervical cancer. 36 % of the screened women had a positive HPV or VIA result ,59.2% of the screened women had a negative HPV or VIA result and 4.8% had an invalid HPV test result. Only 39.5% of the participants had adequate overall knowledge about cervical cancer, more than a third of the participants (50%) had moderate or low knowledge and minority of them (10.5%) had no knowledge. There was no significant association between the uptake of cervical cancer screening services among participants and their socio-demographic characteristics. CONCLUSIONS Although majority of the women surveyed had been screened for cervical cancer, a comparatively large number of participants had inadequate knowledge about cervical cancer and therefore there is still need to continue teaching about cervical cancer and this may include education campaigns, improvements to the accessibility and convenience of the screening services.

Keywords: cervical cancer uptake, cervical cancer screening, women of reproductive age., cervical cancer knowledge

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2126 Catalytic Thermodynamics of Nanocluster Adsorbates from Informational Statistical Mechanics

Authors: Forrest Kaatz, Adhemar Bultheel

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We use an informational statistical mechanics approach to study the catalytic thermodynamics of platinum and palladium cuboctahedral nanoclusters. Nanoclusters and their adatoms are viewed as chemical graphs with a nearest neighbor adjacency matrix. We use the Morse potential to determine bond energies between cluster atoms in a coordination type calculation. We use adsorbate energies calculated from density functional theory (DFT) to study the adatom effects on the thermodynamic quantities, which are derived from a Hamiltonian. Oxygen radical and molecular adsorbates are studied on platinum clusters and hydrogen on palladium clusters. We calculate the entropy, free energy, and total energy as the coverage of adsorbates increases from bridge and hollow sites on the surface. Thermodynamic behavior versus adatom coverage is related to the structural distribution of adatoms on the nanocluster surfaces. The thermodynamic functions are characterized using a simple adsorption model, with linear trends as the coverage of adatoms increases. The data exhibits size effects for the measured thermodynamic properties with cluster diameters between 2 and 5 nm. Entropy and enthalpy calculations of Pt-O2 compare well with previous theoretical data for Pt(111)-O2, and our Pd-H results show similar trends as experimental measurements for Pd-H2 nanoclusters. Our methods are general and may be applied to wide variety of nanocluster adsorbate systems.

Keywords: catalytic thermodynamics, palladium nanocluster absorbates, platinum nanocluster absorbates, statistical mechanics

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2125 Environmental Accounting Practice: Analyzing the Extent and Qualification of Environmental Disclosures of Turkish Companies Located in BIST-XKURY Index

Authors: Raif Parlakkaya, Mustafa Nihat Demirci, Mehmet Nuri Salur

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Environmental pollution has detrimental effects on the quality of our life and its scope has reached such an extent that measures are being taken both at the national and international levels to reduce, prevent and mitigate its impact on social, economic and political spheres. Therefore, awareness of environmental problems has been increasing among stakeholders and accordingly among companies. It is seen that corporate reporting is expanding beyond environmental performance. Primary purpose of publishing an environmental report is to provide specific audiences with useful, meaningful information. This paper is intended to analyze the extent and qualification of environmental disclosures of Turkish publicly quoted firms and see how it varies from one sector to another. The data for the study were collected from annual activity reports of companies, listed on the corporate governance index (BIST-XKURY) of Istanbul Stock Exchange. Content analysis was the research methodology used to measure the extent of environmental disclosure. Accordingly, 2015 annual activity reports of companies that carry out business in some particular fields were acquired from Capital Market Board, websites of Public Disclosure Platform and companies’ own websites. These reports were categorized into five main aspects: Environmental policies, environmental management systems, environmental protection and conservation activities, environmental awareness and information on environmental lawsuits. Subsequently, each component was divided into several variables related to what each firm is supposed to disclose about environmental information. In this context, the nature and scope of the information disclosed on each item were assessed according to five different ways (N.I: No Information; G.E.: General Explanations; Q.E.: Qualitative Detailed Explanations; N.E.: Quantitative (numerical) Detailed Explanations; Q.&N.E.: Both Qualitative and Quantitative Explanations).

Keywords: environmental accounting, disclosure, corporate governance, content analysis

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2124 Spatial Climate Changes in the Province of Macerata, Central Italy, Analyzed by GIS Software

Authors: Matteo Gentilucci, Marco Materazzi, Gilberto Pambianchi

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Climate change is an increasingly central issue in the world, because it affects many of human activities. In this context regional studies are of great importance because they sometimes differ from the general trend. This research focuses on a small area of central Italy which overlooks the Adriatic Sea, the province of Macerata. The aim is to analyze space-based climate changes, for precipitation and temperatures, in the last 3 climatological standard normals (1961-1990; 1971-2000; 1981-2010) through GIS software. The data collected from 30 weather stations for temperature and 61 rain gauges for precipitation were subject to quality controls: validation and homogenization. These data were fundamental for the spatialization of the variables (temperature and precipitation) through geostatistical techniques. To assess the best geostatistical technique for interpolation, the results of cross correlation were used. The co-kriging method with altitude as independent variable produced the best cross validation results for all time periods, among the methods analysed, with 'root mean square error standardized' close to 1, 'mean standardized error' close to 0, 'average standard error' and 'root mean square error' with similar values. The maps resulting from the analysis were compared by subtraction between rasters, producing 3 maps of annual variation and three other maps for each month of the year (1961/1990-1971/2000; 1971/2000-1981/2010; 1961/1990-1981/2010). The results show an increase in average annual temperature of about 0.1°C between 1961-1990 and 1971-2000 and 0.6 °C between 1961-1990 and 1981-2010. Instead annual precipitation shows an opposite trend, with an average difference from 1961-1990 to 1971-2000 of about 35 mm and from 1961-1990 to 1981-2010 of about 60 mm. Furthermore, the differences in the areas have been highlighted with area graphs and summarized in several tables as descriptive analysis. In fact for temperature between 1961-1990 and 1971-2000 the most areally represented frequency is 0.08°C (77.04 Km² on a total of about 2800 km²) with a kurtosis of 3.95 and a skewness of 2.19. Instead, the differences for temperatures from 1961-1990 to 1981-2010 show a most areally represented frequency of 0.83 °C, with -0.45 as kurtosis and 0.92 as skewness (36.9 km²). Therefore it can be said that distribution is more pointed for 1961/1990-1971/2000 and smoother but more intense in the growth for 1961/1990-1981/2010. In contrast, precipitation shows a very similar shape of distribution, although with different intensities, for both variations periods (first period 1961/1990-1971/2000 and second one 1961/1990-1981/2010) with similar values of kurtosis (1st = 1.93; 2nd = 1.34), skewness (1st = 1.81; 2nd = 1.62 for the second) and area of the most represented frequency (1st = 60.72 km²; 2nd = 52.80 km²). In conclusion, this methodology of analysis allows the assessment of small scale climate change for each month of the year and could be further investigated in relation to regional atmospheric dynamics.

Keywords: climate change, GIS, interpolation, co-kriging

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2123 Radioactivity Assessment of Sediments in Negombo Lagoon Sri Lanka

Authors: H. M. N. L. Handagiripathira

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The distributions of naturally occurring and anthropogenic radioactive materials were determined in surface sediments taken at 27 different locations along the bank of Negombo Lagoon in Sri Lanka. Hydrographic parameters of lagoon water and the grain size analyses of the sediment samples were also carried out for this study. The conductivity of the adjacent water was varied from 13.6 mS/cm to 55.4 mS/cm near to the southern end and the northern end of the lagoon, respectively, and equally salinity levels varied from 7.2 psu to 32.1 psu. The average pH in the water was 7.6 and average water temperature was 28.7 °C. The grain size analysis emphasized the mass fractions of the samples as sand (60.9%), fine sand (30.6%) and fine silt+clay (1.3%) in the sampling locations. The surface sediment samples of wet weight, 1 kg each from upper 5-10 cm layer, were oven dried at 105 °C for 24 hours to get a constant weight, homogenized and sieved through a 2 mm sieve (IAEA technical series no. 295). The radioactivity concentrations were determined using gamma spectrometry technique. Ultra Low Background Broad Energy High Purity Ge Detector, BEGe (Model BE5030, Canberra) was used for radioactivity measurement with Canberra Industries' Laboratory Source-less Calibration Software (LabSOCS) mathematical efficiency calibration approach and Geometry composer software. The mean activity concentration was found to be 24 ± 4, 67 ± 9, 181 ± 10, 59 ± 8, 3.5 ± 0.4 and 0.47 ± 0.08 Bq/kg for 238U, 232Th, 40K, 210Pb, 235U and 137Cs respectively. The mean absorbed dose rate in air, radium equivalent activity, external hazard index, annual gonadal dose equivalent and annual effective dose equivalent were 60.8 nGy/h, 137.3 Bq/kg, 0.4, 425.3 mSv/year and 74.6 mSv/year, respectively. The results of this study will provide baseline information on the natural and artificial radioactive isotopes and environmental pollution associated with information on radiological risk.

Keywords: gamma spectrometry, lagoon, radioactivity, sediments

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2122 Investigation of an Approach in Drug Delivery: Orally Fast Disintegrating Tablets

Authors: Tansel Comoglu

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Orally fast disintegrating tablets (FDTs or ODTs) have become popular during the last decade, and manufacturing of ODTs is getting a rapidly growing area in the pharmaceutical industry. The concept of ODTs has emerged from the desire to provide patients with more conventional means of taking their medication. Drugs, that have satisfactory absorption from the oral mucosa or aimed for immediate therapeutic activity can be formulated in ODTs. After placing the ODT into the mouth, these tablets dissolve or disintegrate in the mouth usullay less than a minute, in the absence of additional water. Even though the ODT technology has taken an important path, as proved by a large group of commercial products on the drug market, there are so many problems to be solved in ODT formulations such as; formulation of hydrophobic drugs is stil a challenge, especially when the amount of drug is high. As these tablets dissolve or disintegrate in the mouth without the need of additional water, taste masking of active ingredients becomes essential in these systems because the drug is entirely released in the mouth. In ODT technology, coping with the taste of drugs is still a challenge. Resins or sweeteners or other techniques are also used in the formulation to aid taste-masking of the API. Another important factor to consider is whether they can be manufactured using conventional equipment and processes, as this will have a positive influence on manufacturing costs. Some products, however, may require a more costly, special unitdose packaging if the dosage form is fragile. In this overview, benefits, various formulation technologies, clinical studies and some future research trends of ODTs will be discussed.

Keywords: orally fast disintegrating tablets, benefits, formulation technologies, future research trends

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2121 Implementing the WHO Air Quality Guideline for PM2.5 Worldwide can Prevent Millions of Premature Deaths Per Year

Authors: Despina Giannadaki, Jos Lelieveld, Andrea Pozzer, John Evans

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Outdoor air pollution by fine particles ranks among the top ten global health risk factors that can lead to premature mortality. Epidemiological cohort studies, mainly conducted in United States and Europe, have shown that the long-term exposure to PM2.5 (particles with an aerodynamic diameter less than 2.5μm) is associated with increased mortality from cardiovascular, respiratory diseases and lung cancer. Fine particulates can cause health impacts even at very low concentrations. Previously, no concentration level has been defined below which health damage can be fully prevented. The World Health Organization ambient air quality guidelines suggest an annual mean PM2.5 concentration limit of 10μg/m3. Populations in large parts of the world, especially in East and Southeast Asia, and in the Middle East, are exposed to high levels of fine particulate pollution that by far exceeds the World Health Organization guidelines. The aim of this work is to evaluate the implementation of recent air quality standards for PM2.5 in the EU, the US and other countries worldwide and estimate what measures will be needed to substantially reduce premature mortality. We investigated premature mortality attributed to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) under adults ≥ 30yrs and children < 5yrs, applying a high-resolution global atmospheric chemistry model combined with epidemiological concentration-response functions. The latter are based on the methodology of the Global Burden of Disease for 2010, assuming a ‘safe’ annual mean PM2.5 threshold of 7.3μg/m3. We estimate the global premature mortality by PM2.5 at 3.15 million/year in 2010. China is the leading country with about 1.33 million, followed by India with 575 thousand and Pakistan with 105 thousand. For the European Union (EU) we estimate 173 thousand and the United States (US) 52 thousand in 2010. Based on sensitivity calculations we tested the gains from PM2.5 control by applying the air quality guidelines (AQG) and standards of the World Health Organization (WHO), the EU, the US and other countries. To estimate potential reductions in mortality rates we take into consideration the deaths that cannot be avoided after the implementation of PM2.5 upper limits, due to the contribution of natural sources to total PM2.5 and therefore to mortality (mainly airborne desert dust). The annual mean EU limit of 25μg/m3 would reduce global premature mortality by 18%, while within the EU the effect is negligible, indicating that the standard is largely met and that stricter limits are needed. The new US standard of 12μg/m3 would reduce premature mortality by 46% worldwide, 4% in the US and 20% in the EU. Implementing the AQG by the WHO of 10μg/m3 would reduce global premature mortality by 54%, 76% in China and 59% in India. In the EU and US, the mortality would be reduced by 36% and 14%, respectively. Hence, following the WHO guideline will prevent 1.7 million premature deaths per year. Sensitivity calculations indicate that even small changes at the lower PM2.5 standards can have major impacts on global mortality rates.

Keywords: air quality guidelines, outdoor air pollution, particulate matter, premature mortality

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2120 Recreation and Environmental Quality of Tropical Wetlands: A Social Media Based Spatial Analysis

Authors: Michael Sinclair, Andrea Ghermandi, Sheela A. Moses, Joseph Sabu

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Passively crowdsourced data, such as geotagged photographs from social media, represent an opportunistic source of location-based and time-specific behavioral data for ecosystem services analysis. Such data have innovative applications for environmental management and protection, which are replicable at wide spatial scales and in the context of both developed and developing countries. Here we test one such innovation, based on the analysis of the metadata of online geotagged photographs, to investigate the provision of recreational services by the entire network of wetland ecosystems in the state of Kerala, India. We estimate visitation to individual wetlands state-wide and extend, for the first time to a developing region, the emerging application of cultural ecosystem services modelling using data from social media. The impacts of restoration of wetland areal extension and water quality improvement are explored as a means to inform more sustainable management strategies. Findings show that improving water quality to a level suitable for the preservation of wildlife and fisheries could increase annual visits by 350,000, an increase of 13% in wetland visits state-wide, while restoring previously encroached wetland area could result in a 7% increase in annual visits, corresponding to 49,000 visitors, in the Ashtamudi and Vembanad lakes alone, two large coastal Ramsar wetlands in Kerala. We discuss how passive crowdsourcing of social media data has the potential to improve current ecosystem service analyses and environmental management practices also in the context of developing countries.

Keywords: coastal wetlands, cultural ecosystem services, India, passive crowdsourcing, social media, wetland restoration

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2119 An Evaluation of the Use of Telematics for Improving the Driving Behaviours of Young People

Authors: James Boylan, Denny Meyer, Won Sun Chen

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Background: Globally, there is an increasing trend of road traffic deaths, reaching 1.35 million in 2016 in comparison to 1.3 million a decade ago, and overall, road traffic injuries are ranked as the eighth leading cause of death for all age groups. The reported death rate for younger drivers aged 16-19 years is almost twice the rate reported for older drivers aged 25 and above, with a rate of 3.5 road traffic fatalities per annum for every 10,000 licenses held. Telematics refers to a system with the ability to capture real-time data about vehicle usage. The data collected from telematics can be used to better assess a driver's risk. It is typically used to measure acceleration, turn, braking, and speed, as well as to provide locational information. With the Australian government creating the National Telematics Framework, there has been an increase in the government's focus on using telematics data to improve road safety outcomes. The purpose of this study is to test the hypothesis that improvements in telematics measured driving behaviour to relate to improvements in road safety attitudes measured by the Driving Behaviour Questionnaire (DBQ). Methodology: 28 participants were recruited and given a telematics device to insert into their vehicles for the duration of the study. The participant's driving behaviour over the course of the first month will be compared to their driving behaviour in the second month to determine whether feedback from telematics devices improves driving behaviour. Participants completed the DBQ, evaluated using a 6-point Likert scale (0 = never, 5 = nearly all the time) at the beginning, after the first month, and after the second month of the study. This is a well-established instrument used worldwide. Trends in the telematics data will be captured and correlated with the changes in the DBQ using regression models in SAS. Results: The DBQ has provided a reliable measure (alpha = .823) of driving behaviour based on a sample of 23 participants, with an average of 50.5 and a standard deviation of 11.36, and a range of 29 to 76, with higher scores, indicating worse driving behaviours. This initial sample is well stratified in terms of gender and age (range 19-27). It is expected that in the next six weeks, a larger sample of around 40 will have completed the DBQ after experiencing in-vehicle telematics for 30 days, allowing a comparison with baseline levels. The trends in the telematics data over the first 30 days will be compared with the changes observed in the DBQ. Conclusions: It is expected that there will be a significant relationship between the improvements in the DBQ and the trends in reduced telematics measured aggressive driving behaviours supporting the hypothesis.

Keywords: telematics, driving behavior, young drivers, driving behaviour questionnaire

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