Search results for: squared prediction risk

Authors: Mastewal Endeshaw Getnet

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Imunization is one of the most cost-effective and extensively adopted public health strategies for preventing child disability and mortality. Expanded Program on Immunization (EPI) was launched in 1974 with the goal of providing life-saving vaccines to all children in all and building on the success of the global smallpox eradication program. According to World Health Organization report, by 2020, all countries should have achieved 90% vaccination coverage. Many developing countries still have not achieved the goal. Ethiopia is one of Africa's developing countries. The Ethiopian Ministry of health (MoH) launched the EPI program in 1980, with the goal of achieving 90% coverage among children under the age of 1 year by 1990. Among children aged 12-23 months, complete immunization coverage was 47% based on the Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey (EDAS) 2019 report. The coverage varies depending on the administrative region, ranging from 21% in Afar region to 89% in Amhara region, Ethiopia. Therefore, identifying risk factors for incomplete immunization among children is a key challenge, particularly in Ethiopia, which has a large geographical diversity and a predicted with 119.96 million projected population size in the year 2022. Despite its critical and challenging issue, this issue is still open and has not yet been fully investigated. Recently, a few previous studies have been conducted on the assessment of incomplete children immunization determinants. However, the majority of the studies were cross-sectional surveys that assessed only EPI coverage. Motivated by the above investigation, this study focuses on investigating determinants associated with incomplete immunization among Ethiopian children to facilitate the rate of full immunization coverage. Moreover, we consider both individual immunization and service performance-related factors to investigate incomplete children's determinants. Consequently, we adopted an ecological model in this study. Individual and environmental factors are combined in the Ecological model, which provides multilevel framework for exploring different determinants related with health behaviors. The Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey will be used as a source of data from 2021 to achieve the objective of this study. The findings of this study will be useful to the Ethiopian government and other public health institutes to improve the coverage score of childhood immunization based on the identified risk determinants.

Keywords: incomplete immunization, children, ethiopia, ecological model

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Authors: Imdat Taymaz, Erman Aslan, Kemal Cakir

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The Lattice Boltzmann Method (LBM) is performed to computationally investigate the laminar flow and heat transfer of an incompressible fluid with constant material properties in a 2D channel with a built-in triangular prism. Both momentum and energy transport is modelled by the LBM. A uniform lattice structure with a single time relaxation rule is used. Interpolation methods are applied for obtaining a higher flexibility on the computational grid, where the information is transferred from the lattice structure to the computational grid by Lagrange interpolation. The flow is researched on for different Reynolds number, while Prandtl number is keeping constant as a 0.7. The results show how the presence of a triangular prism effects the flow and heat transfer patterns for the steady-state and unsteady-periodic flow regimes. As an evaluation of the accuracy of the developed LBM code, the results are compared with those obtained by a commercial CFD code. It is observed that the present LBM code produces results that have similar accuracy with the well-established CFD code, as an additionally, LBM needs much smaller CPU time for the prediction of the unsteady phonema.

Keywords: laminar forced convection, lbm, triangular prism

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Authors: Prasanna Ramachandran, Kareem Graham, Helena Kiefel, Sunit Jain, Todd DeSantis

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Microbes that reside inside the mammalian GI tract, commonly referred to as the gut microbiome, have been shown to have therapeutic effects in animal models of disease. We hypothesize that specific proteins produced by these microbes are responsible for this activity and may be used directly as therapeutics. To speed up the discovery of these key proteins from the big-data metagenomics, we have applied machine learning techniques. Using amino acid sequences of known epitopes and their corresponding binding partners, protein interaction descriptors (PID) were calculated, making a positive interaction set. A negative interaction dataset was calculated using sequences of proteins known not to interact with these same binding partners. Using Random Forest and positive and negative PID, a machine learning model was trained and used to predict interacting versus non-interacting proteins. Furthermore, the continuous variable, cosine similarity in the interaction descriptors was used to rank bacterial therapeutic candidates. Laboratory binding assays were conducted to test the candidates for their potential as therapeutics. Results from binding assays reveal the accuracy of the machine learning prediction and are subsequently used to further improve the model.

Keywords: protein-interactions, machine-learning, metagenomics, microbiome

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Authors: Abolfazl Hosseinkhani, Sepehr Sanaye

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Different approaches have been used to predict the performance of the vertical axis wind turbines (VAWT), such as experimental, computational fluid dynamics (CFD), and analytical methods. Analytical methods, such as momentum models that use streamtubes, have low computational cost and sufficient accuracy. The double multiple streamtube (DMST) is one of the most commonly used of momentum models, which divide the rotor plane of VAWT into upwind and downwind. In fact, results from the DMST method have shown some discrepancy compared with experiment results; that is because the Darrieus turbine is a complex and aerodynamically unsteady configuration. In this study, analytical-experimental-based corrections, including dynamic stall, streamtube expansion, and finite blade length correction are used to improve the DMST method. Results indicated that using these corrections for a SANDIA 17-m VAWT will lead to improving the results of DMST.

Keywords: vertical axis wind turbine, analytical, double multiple streamtube, streamtube expansion model, dynamic stall model, finite blade length correction

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Authors: Seyed Abbas Tabatabaei, Fereydoon Moghadas Nejad, Mohammad Saed

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The bleeding prediction of the asphalt is one of the most complex subjects in the pavement engineering. In this paper, an Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) is used for modeling the effect of important parameters on bleeding is trained and tested with the experimental results. bleeding index based on the asphalt film thickness differential as target parameter,asphalt content, temperature depth of two centemeter, heavy traffic, dust to effective binder, Marshall strength, passing 3/4 sieves, passing 3/8 sieves,passing 3/16 sieves, passing NO8, passing NO50, passing NO100, passing NO200 as input parameters. Then, we randomly divided empirical data into train and test sections in order to accomplish modeling. We instructed ANFIS network by 72 percent of empirical data. 28 percent of primary data which had been considered for testing the approprativity of the modeling were entered into ANFIS model. Results were compared by two statistical criterions (R2, RMSE) with empirical ones. Considering the results, it is obvious that our proposed modeling by ANFIS is efficient and valid and it can also be promoted to more general states.

Keywords: bleeding, asphalt film thickness differential, Anfis Modeling

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Authors: Ekaterina Zvorykina

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Nowadays, Arctic and Antarctic regions are distinguished to be one of the most important strategic resources for global development. Nonetheless, living conditions in Arctic regions still demand certain improvements. As soon as the region is rarely populated, one of the main points of interest is health accommodation of the people, who migrate to Arctic region for permanent and shift work. At Arctic and Antarctic latitudes, personnel face polar day and polar night conditions during the time of the year. It means that they are deprived of natural sunlight in winter season and have continuous daylight in summer. Firstly, the change in light intensity during 24-hours period due to migration affects circadian rhythms. Moreover, the controlled artificial light in winter is also an issue. The results of the recent studies on night shift medical professionals, who were exposed to permanent artificial light, have already demonstrated higher risks in cancer, depression, Alzheimer disease. Moreover, people exposed to frequent time zones change are also subjected to higher risks of heart attack and cancer. Thus, our main goals are to understand how high latitude work and living conditions can affect human health and how it can be prevented. In our study, we analyze molecular and cellular factors, which play important role in circadian rhythm change and distinguish main risk groups in people, migrating to high latitudes. The main well-studied index of circadian timing is melatonin or its metabolite 6-sulfatoxymelatonin. In low light intensity melatonin synthesis is disturbed and as a result human organism requires more time for sleep, which is still disregarded when it comes to working time organization. Lack of melatonin also causes shortage in serotonin production, which leads to higher depression risk. Melatonin is also known to inhibit oncogenes and increase apoptosis level in cells, the main factors for tumor growth, as well as circadian clock genes (for example Per2). Thus, people who work in high latitudes can be distinguished as a risk group for cancer diseases and demand more attention. Clock/Clock genes, known to be one of the main circadian clock regulators, decrease sensitivity of hypothalamus to estrogen and decrease glucose sensibility, which leads to premature aging and oestrous cycle disruption. Permanent light exposure also leads to accumulation superoxide dismutase and oxidative stress, which is one of the main factors for early dementia and Alzheimer disease. We propose a new screening system adjusted for people, migrating from middle to high latitudes and accommodation therapy. Screening is focused on melatonin and estrogen levels, sleep deprivation and neural disorders, depression level, cancer risks and heart and vascular disorders. Accommodation therapy includes different types artificial light exposure, additional melatonin and neuroprotectors. Preventive procedures can lead to increase of migration intensity to high latitudes and, as a result, the prosperity of Arctic region.

Keywords: circadian rhythm, high latitudes, melatonin, neuroprotectors

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Authors: Ross Calvert, Colin Whittaker, Alison Raby, Alistair G. L. Borthwick, Ton S. van den Bremer

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Large concentrations of plastic have polluted the seas in the last half century, with harmful effects on marine wildlife and potentially to human health. Plastic pollution will have lasting effects because it is expected to take hundreds or thousands of years for plastic to decay in the ocean. The question arises how waves transport plastic in the ocean. The predominant motion induced by waves creates ellipsoid orbits. However, these orbits do not close, resulting in a drift. This is defined as Stokes drift. If a particle is infinitesimally small and the same density as water, it will behave exactly as the water does, i.e., as a purely Lagrangian tracer. However, as the particle grows in size or changes density, it will behave differently. The particle will then have its own inertia, the fluid will exert drag on the particle, because there is relative velocity, and it will rise or sink depending on the density and whether it is on the free surface. Previously, plastic pollution has all been considered to be purely Lagrangian. However, the steepness of waves in the ocean is small, normally about α = k₀a = 0.1 (where k₀ is the wavenumber and a is the wave amplitude), this means that the mean drift flows are of the order of ten times smaller than the oscillatory velocities (Stokes drift is proportional to steepness squared, whilst the oscillatory velocities are proportional to the steepness). Thus, the particle motion must have the forces of the full motion, oscillatory and mean flow, as well as a dynamic buoyancy term to account for the free surface, to determine whether inertia is important. To track the motion of a floating inertial particle under wave action requires the fluid velocities, which form the forcing, and the full equations of motion of a particle to be solved. Starting with the equation of motion of a sphere in unsteady flow with viscous drag. Terms can added then be added to the equation of motion to better model floating plastic: a dynamic buoyancy to model a particle floating on the free surface, quadratic drag for larger particles and a slope sliding term. Using perturbation methods to order the equation of motion into sequentially solvable parts allows a parametric equation for the transport of inertial finite-sized floating particles to be derived. This parametric equation can then be validated using numerical simulations of the equation of motion and flume experiments. This paper presents a parametric equation for the transport of inertial floating finite-size particles by ocean waves. The equation shows an increase in Stokes drift for larger, less dense particles. The equation has been validated using numerical solutions of the equation of motion and laboratory flume experiments. The difference in the particle transport equation and a purely Lagrangian tracer is illustrated using worlds maps of the induced transport. This parametric transport equation would allow ocean-scale numerical models to include inertial effects of floating plastic when predicting or tracing the transport of pollutants.

Keywords: perturbation methods, plastic pollution transport, Stokes drift, wave flume experiments, wave-induced mean flow

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Authors: M. Gregušová, V. Schindlerová, I. Šajdlerová, P. Mohyla, J. Kedroň

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Company managers are always looking for more and more opportunities to succeed in today's fiercely competitive market. Maintain your place among the successful companies on the market today or come up with a revolutionary business idea; it is much more difficult than before. Each new or improved method, tools, or the approach that can improve the functioning of business processes or even the entire system is worth checking and verification. The use of simulation in the design of manufacturing systems and their management in practice is one of the ways without increased risk to find the optimal parameters of manufacturing processes and systems. The paper presents an example of using simulation to solve the bottleneck problem in concrete company.

Keywords: practical applications, business processes, systems, simulation

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Authors: Badriah Alayidi, Emad Alyahya

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Background: Most people with Multiple Sclerosis (MS) report worsening balance as the condition progresses. Poor balance control is also well known to be a significant risk factor for both falling and fear of falling. The increased risk of falls with disease progression thus makes balance control an essential target of gait rehabilitation amongst people with MS. Intervention programs have developed various methods to improve balance control, and accumulating evidence suggests that exercise programs may help people with MS improve their balance. Among these methods, virtual reality (VR) is growing in popularity as a balance-training technique owing to its potential benefits, including better compliance and greater user happiness. However, it is not clear if a VR environment will induce different balance control mechanisms in MS as compared to healthy individuals or traditional environments. Therefore, this study aims to examine how individuals with MS control their balance in a VR setting. Methodology: The proposed study takes an empirical approach to estimate and determine the role of balance response in persons with MS using a VR environment. It will use primary data collected through patient observations, physiological and biomechanical evaluation of balance, and data analysis. Results: The preliminary systematic review and meta-analysis indicated that there was variability in terms of the outcome assessing balance response in people with MS. The preliminary results of these assessments have the potential to provide essential indicators of the progression of MS and contribute to the individualization of treatment and evaluation of the interventions’ effectiveness. The literature describes patients who have had the opportunity to experiment in VR settings and then used what they have learned in the real world, suggesting that this VR setting could be more appealing than conditional settings. The findings of the proposed study will be beneficial in estimating and determining the effect of VR on balance control in persons with MS. In previous studies, VR was shown to be an interesting approach to neurological rehabilitation, but more data are needed to support this approach in MS. Conclusions: The proposed study enables an assessment of balance and evaluations of a variety of physiological implications related to neural activity as well as biomechanical implications related to movement analysis.

Keywords: multiple sclerosis, virtual reality, postural control, balance

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Authors: A.H.Y. Lai, C. Teyra

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In Taiwan, there are 16 official indigenous groups, accounting for 2.3% of the total population. Like other indigenous populations worldwide, indigenous peoples in Taiwan have poorer mental health because of their history of oppression and colonisation. Amid the negative narratives, the ethnic identity of cultural minorities is their unique psychological and cultural asset. Moreover, positive socialisation is found to be related to strong ethnic identity. Based on Phinney’s theory on ethnic identity development and social support theory, this study adopted a strength-based approach conceptualising ethnic identity as the central organising principle that linked perceived social support and mental health among indigenous adults in Taiwan. Aims. Overall aim is to examine the effect of ethnic identity and social support on mental health. Specific aims were to examine : (1) the association between ethnic identity and mental health; (2) the association between perceived social support and mental health ; (3) the indirect effect of ethnic identity linking perceived social support and mental health. Methods. Participants were indigenous adults in Taiwan (n=200; mean age=29.51; Female=31%, Male=61%, Others=8%). A cross-sectional quantitative design was implemented using data collected in the year 2020. Respondent-driven sampling was used. Standardised measurements were: Ethnic Identity Scale(6-item); Social Support Questionnaire-SF(6 items); Patient Health Questionnaire(9-item); and Generalised Anxiety Disorder(7-item). Covariates were age, gender and economic satisfaction. A four-stage structural equation modelling (SEM) with robust maximin likelihood estimation was employed using Mplus8.0. Step 1: A measurement model was built and tested using confirmatory factor analysis (CFA). Step 2: Factor covariates were re-specified as direct effects in the SEM. Covariates were added. The direct effects of (1) ethnic identity and social support on depression and anxiety and (2) social support on ethnic identity were tested. The indirect effect of ethnic identity was examined with the bootstrapping technique. Results. The CFA model showed satisfactory fit statistics: x^2(df)=869.69(608), p<.05; Comparative ft index (CFI)/ Tucker-Lewis fit index (TLI)=0.95/0.94; root mean square error of approximation (RMSEA)=0.05; Standardized Root Mean Squared Residual (SRMR)=0.05. Ethnic identity is represented by two latent factors: ethnic identity-commitment and ethnic identity-exploration. Depression, anxiety and social support are single-factor latent variables. For the SEM, model fit statistics were: x^2(df)=779.26(527), p<.05; CFI/TLI=0.94/0.93; RMSEA=0.05; SRMR=0.05. Ethnic identity-commitment (b=-0.30) and social support (b=-0.33) had direct negative effects on depression, but ethnic identity-exploration did not. Ethnic identity-commitment (b=-0.43) and social support (b=-0.31) had direct negative effects on anxiety, while identity-exploration (b=0.24) demonstrated a positive effect. Social support had direct positive effects on ethnic identity-exploration (b=0.26) and ethnic identity-commitment (b=0.31). Mediation analysis demonstrated the indirect effect of ethnic identity-commitment linking social support and depression (b=0.22). Implications: Results underscore the role of social support in preventing depression via ethnic identity commitment among indigenous adults in Taiwan. Adopting the strength-based approach, mental health practitioners can mobilise indigenous peoples’ commitment to their group to promote their well-being.

Keywords: ethnic identity, indigenous population, mental health, perceived social support

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Authors: Farideh Doostan, Sahar Mohseni Taklloo, Mohammad Nosrati

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Chronic diseases are non-communicable and largely preventable by lifestyle changes including healthy diet consumption. They are the most common cause of death in the world and projected to increase by 15% globally between 2010 and 2020.The hazardous effects of behavioral and dietary risk factors on chronic disease have been established in prospective cohort studies and randomized trials. Because of some changes occur in college students’ lifestyle, assessment of dietary risk factors is important in these populations. Objective: This research was the first study that conducted to evaluate dietary intakes of Kermanian college students with WHO/FAO nutritional objectives. Material and Methods: In this descriptive cross-sectional study, 229 healthy college students of health faculty in Kerman University of Medical Sciences that do not intake any medical drugs were recruited using multistage sampling in 2013.Usual dietary intake was collected using a valid Food Frequency Questionnaire (FFQ) and diet quality was calculated based on WHO nutrient goals. To analysis of data between two groups, independent sample t. test and man whitney were applied. Results: Two hundred and twenty-nine college students; 151 females (65.9%) and 78 males (34.1%), the mean age of 21.9 years were studied. The mean of the Body Mass Index (Kg/m2) and Waist Circumference (cm) in males were 22.34 ±3.52 and 80.76±11.16 and in females were 21.19±2.62 and 73.67±7.65 respectively. Mean of daily cholesterol intake in males was significantly more than females (305±101 VS 268±98; P=0.008) and more than WHO/FAO recommendation (less than 300 mg/day). The mean of daily sodium intake in men and women were 10.4±1 and 10.9±5.3 respectively. These amounts were more than WHO/FAO recommendation (less than 2g/day). In addition, women were consumed fruit and vegetables more than men (839±336 VS 638±281; p ‹ 0.001) and these amounts were more than WHO/FAO recommendation (more than 400g/day) in both groups. Other intake indices were in the range of WHO/FAO recommendations, So that Percent of calories intake from total fat, saturated fatty acids, polyunsaturated fatty acids and added sugar were in compliance with WHO/FAO recommendations. Conclusion: Cholesterol intake in men and sodium intake in all participants were more than WHO/FAO recommendation. These dietary components are the most important causes of cardiovascular disease (one of the main causes of death in our population). These results indicated that proper nutritional education and interventions are needed in this population.

Keywords: college students, food intake, WHO /FAO nutrient intake goals, Kerman

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Authors: Tao Song, Hao Cheng, Guangfeng Tian, Chuang Xu

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An autonomous emergency braking system is an advanced driving assistance system that enables vehicle collision avoidance and pedestrian collision avoidance to improve vehicle safety. At present, because the pedestrian target is small, and the mobility is large, the pedestrian AEB system is faced with more technical difficulties and higher functional requirements. In this paper, a method of pedestrian target selection based on a variable width funnel is proposed. Based on the current position and predicted position of pedestrians, the relative position of vehicle and pedestrian at the time of collision is calculated, and different braking strategies are adopted according to the hazard level of pedestrian collisions. In the CNCAP standard operating conditions, comparing the method of considering only the current position of pedestrians and the method of considering pedestrian prediction position, as well as the method based on fixed width funnel and variable width funnel, the results show that, based on variable width funnel, the choice of pedestrian target will be more accurate and the opportunity of the intervention of AEB system will be more reasonable by considering the predicted position of the pedestrian target and vehicle's lateral motion.

Keywords: automatic emergency braking system, pedestrian target selection, TTC, variable width funnel

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Authors: Azlina Binti Abu Bakar, Fahmi Zaidi Bin Abdul Razak, Wan Salihin Wong Abdullah

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Psychographic is a psychological study of values, attitudes, interests and it is used mostly in prediction, opinion research and social research. This study predicts the influence of performance expectancy, effort expectancy, social influence and facilitating condition on e-government acceptance among Malaysian citizens. The survey responses of 543 e-government users have been validated and analyzed by means of covariance-based Structural Equation Modeling. The findings indicate that e-government acceptance among Malaysian citizens are mainly influenced by performance expectancy (β = 0.66, t = 11.53, p < 0.01) and social influence (β = 0.20, t = 4.23, p < 0.01). Surprisingly, there is no significant effect of facilitating condition and effort expectancy on e-government continuance intention (β = 0.01, t = 0.27, p > 0.05; β = -0.01, t = -0.40, p > 0.05). This study offers government and vendors a frame of reference to analyze citizen’s situation before initiating new innovations. In case of Malaysian e-government technology, adoption strategies should be built around fostering level of citizens’ technological expectation and social influence on e-government usage.

Keywords: continuance intention, Malaysian citizen, media psychology, structural equation modeling

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Authors: Hamad Aljassmi, Sangwon Han

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Various solutions for preventing construction defects have been suggested. However, a construction company may have difficulties adopting all these suggestions due to financial and practical constraints. Based on this recognition, this paper aims to identify the most significant defect causes and formulate their defect generation mechanism in order to help a construction company to set priorities of its defect prevention strategies. For this goal, we conducted a questionnaire survey of 106 industry professionals and identified five most significant causes including: (1) organizational culture, (2) time pressure and constraints, (3) workplace quality system, (4) financial constraints upon operational expenses and (5) inadequate employee training or learning opportunities.

Keywords: defect, quality, failure, risk

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Authors: A. Shebani, C. Pislaru

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Wear of materials is an everyday experience and has been observed and studied for long time. The prediction of wear is a fundamental problem in the industrial field, mainly correlated to the planning of maintenance interventions and economy. Pin-on-disc test is the most common test which is used to study the wear behaviour. In this paper, the pin-on-disc (AEROTECH UNIDEX 11) is used for the investigation of the effects of normal load and hardness of material on the wear under dry and sliding conditions. In the pin-on-disc rig, two specimens were used; one, a pin which is made of steel with a tip, is positioned perpendicular to the disc, where the disc is made of aluminium. The pin wear and disc wear were measured by using the following instruments: The Talysurf instrument, a digital microscope, and the alicona instrument; where the Talysurf profilometer was used to measure the pin/disc wear scar depth, and the alicona was used to measure the volume loss for pin and disc. After that, the Archard model, American Society for Testing and Materials model (ASTM), and neural network model were used for pin/disc wear modelling and the simulation results are implemented by using the Matlab program. This paper focuses on how the alicona can be considered as a powerful tool for wear measurements and how the neural network is an effective algorithm for wear estimation.

Keywords: wear modelling, Archard Model, ASTM Model, Neural Networks Model, Pin-on-disc Test, Talysurf, digital microscope, Alicona

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Authors: Jiri Barta

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This paper deals with a simulation programs and technologies using in the educational process for members of the crisis management. Risk analysis, simulation, preparation and planning are among the main activities of workers of crisis management. Made correctly simulation of emergency defines the extent of the danger. On this basis, it is possible to effectively prepare and plan measures to minimize damage. The paper is focused on simulation programs that are trained at the University of Defence. Implementation of the outputs from simulation programs in decision-making processes of crisis staffs is one of the main tasks of the research project.

Keywords: crisis management, continuity, critical infrastructure, dangerous substance, education, flood, simulation programs

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Authors: Mohammad Abdallah

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Due to the constant increase in terrorist attacks, the research and engineering communities have given significant attention to building performance under explosions. This paper presents a methodology for studying and simulating the dynamic responses of steel structures during external detonations, particularly for accurately investigating the impact of incrementing charge weight on the members total behavior, resistance and failure. Prediction damage method was introduced to evaluate the damage level of the steel members based on five scenarios of explosions. Johnson–Cook strength and failure model have been used as well as ABAQUS finite element code to simulate the explicit dynamic analysis, and antecedent field tests were used to verify the acceptance and accuracy of the proposed material strength and failure model. Based on the structural response, evaluation criteria such as deflection, vertical displacement, drift index, and damage level; the obtained results show the vulnerability of steel columns and un-braced steel frames which are designed and optimized to carry dead and live load to resist and endure blast loading.

Keywords: steel structure, blast load, terrorist attacks, charge weight, damage level

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Authors: Eakarat Boonreang, Anothai Harasarn

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The objectives of this study are to investigate the flood disaster management capacity of communities in Ubon Ratchathani province, Thailand, and to recommend the sustainable flood management approaches of communities in Ubon Ratchathani province, Thailand. The selected population consisted of the community leaders and committees, the executives of local administrative organizations, and the head of Ubon Ratchathani provincial office of disaster prevention and mitigation. The data was collected by in-depth interview, focus group, and observation. The data was analyzed and classified in order to determine the communities’ capacity in flood disaster management. The results revealed that communities’ capacity were as follows, before flood disaster, the community leaders held a meeting with the community committees in order to plan disaster response and determined evacuation routes, and the villagers moved their belongings to higher places and prepared vehicles for evacuation. During flood disaster, the communities arranged motorboats for transportation and villagers evacuated to a temporary evacuation center. Moreover, the communities asked for survival bags, motorboats, emergency toilets, and drinking water from the local administrative organizations and the 22nd Military Circle. After flood disaster, the villagers cleaned and fixed their houses and also collaborated in cleaning the temple, school, and other places in the community. The recommendation approaches for sustainable flood disaster management consisted of structural measures, such as the establishment of reservoirs and building higher houses, and non-structural measures such as raising awareness and fostering self-reliance, establishing disaster management plans, rehearsal of disaster response procedures every year, and transferring disaster knowledge among younger generations. Moreover, local administrative organizations should formulate strategic plans that focus on disaster management capacity building at the community level, particularly regarding non-structural measures. Ubon Ratchathani provincial offices of disaster prevention and mitigation should continually monitor and evaluate the outcomes of community based disaster risk management program, including allocating more flood disaster management-related resources among local administrative organizations and communities.

Keywords: capacity building, community based disaster risk management, flood disaster management, Thailand

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Authors: Wu Xiaojun, Liu Ruiping, Yu Xingzhan, Wu Qian

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In precision grinding, utilizing the elastic matrix ball has higher processing efficiency and better superficial quality than traditional grinding. The diversity of characteristics which elastic abrasive tool contact with bend surface results in irregular wear abrasion，and abrasive tool machining status get complicated. There is no theoretical interpretation that parameters affect the grinding accuracy.Aiming at corrosion resistance, wear resistance and other characteristics of M 300 material, it is often used as a material on aerospace precision components. The paper carried out grinding and polishing experiments by using material of M 300,to theoretically show the relationship between stress magnitude and grinding efficiency，and predict the optimal combination of grinding parameter for effective grinding, just for the high abrasion resistance features of M 300, analyzing the micro-contact of elastic ball abrasive tool (Whetstone), using mathematical methods deduce the functional relationship between residual peak removal rate and the main parameters which impact the grinding accuracy on the plane case.Thus laying the foundation for the study of elastic abrasive prediction and compensation.

Keywords: flexible abrasive tool, polishing parameters, Hertz theory, removal rate

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Authors: Dorra Gherib

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This article explores in depth the technological innovations by the Top Managements of banks in the Tunisian banking sector. The framework of this research is based on an amalgamation of four theories related to the decision of adopting technological innovations: The Theory of Reasoned Action (TRA), the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB), Technology Acceptance Model (TAM), and Diffusion of Innovation (DI). The result of our qualitative study highlights four variables which influence the attitude of the Top Managements towards the adoption of internet banking: Relative advantage, Perceived Ease of Use, compatibility and Perceived risk.

Keywords: top management, attitude, internet banking, TRA, TAM, TPB, DI

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Authors: Zena F. Mushtaq, Iqbal M. Abbas

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Background: Diabetes mellitus during pregnancy is one of the major medical and social problems with increasing prevalence in last decades and may lead to more vulnerable to dental problems and increased risk for periodontal diseases. Objectives: To assess oral hygiene behaviors among pregnant women with diabetes who attended primary health care centers and find out the relationship between oral hygiene behaviors and studied variables. Methodology: A cross sectional design was conducted from 7 July to 30 September 2014 on non probability (convenient sample) of 150 pregnant women with diabetes was selected from twelve Primary Health Care Centers at Baghdad city. Questionnaire format is tool for data collection which had designed and consisted of three main parts including: socio demographic, reproductive characteristics and items of oral hygiene behaviors among pregnant women with diabetes. Reliability of the questionnaire was determined through internal consistency of correlation coefficient (R= 0.940) and validity of content was determined through reviewing it by (12) experts in different specialties and was determined through pilot study. Descriptive and inferential statistics were used to analyze collected data. Result: Result of study revealed that (35.3%) of study sample was (35-39) years old with mean and SD is (X & SD = 33.57 ± 5.54) years, and (34.7%) of the study sample was graduated from primary school and less, half of the study sample was government employment and self employed, (42.7%) of the study sample had moderate socioeconomic status, the highest percentage (70.0%) of the study sample was nonsmokers, The result indicates that oral hygiene behaviors have moderate mean score in all items. There are no statistical significant association between oral hygiene domain and studied variables. Conclusions: All items related to health behavior concerning oral hygiene is in moderate mean of score, which may expose pregnant women with diabetes to high risk of periodontal diseases. Recommendations: Dental care provider should perform a dental examination at least every three months for each pregnant woman with diabetes, explanation of the effect of DM on periodontal health, oral hygiene instruction, oral prophylaxis, professional cleaning and treatment of periodontal diseases(scaling and root planing) when needed.

Keywords: diabetes, health behavior, pregnant women, oral hygiene

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Authors: Tamanna Goyal, Divya Bansal, Sanjeev Sofat

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In world-threatening terrorist attacks, where early detection, distinction, and prediction are effective diagnosis techniques and for functionally accurate and precise analysis of terrorism data, there are so many data mining & statistical approaches to assure accuracy. The computational extraction of derived patterns is a non-trivial task which comprises specific domain discovery by means of sophisticated algorithm design and analysis. This paper proposes an approach for similarity extraction by obtaining the useful attributes from the available datasets of terrorist attacks and then applying feature selection technique based on the statistical impurity measures followed by clustering techniques on the basis of similarity measures. On the basis of degree of participation of attributes in the rules, the associative dependencies between the attacks are analyzed. Consequently, to compute the similarity among the discovered rules, we applied a weighted similarity measure. Finally, the rules are grouped by applying using hierarchical clustering. We have applied it to an open source dataset to determine the usability and efficiency of our technique, and a literature search is also accomplished to support the efficiency and accuracy of our results.

Keywords: association rules, clustering, similarity measure, statistical approaches

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Authors: M. Sadoughi, R. Ehsani

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The aim of the present study is examining the relationship between conceptual organizational culture and the level of tolerance in employees of Islamic Azad University of Shahre Ghods. This research is a correlational and analytic-descriptive one. The samples included 144 individuals. A 24-item standard questionnaire of organizational culture by Cameron and Queen was used in this study. This questionnaire has six criteria and each criterion includes four items that each item indicates one cultural dimension. Reliability coefficient of this questionnaire was normed using Cronbach's alpha of 0.91. Also, the 25-item questionnaire of tolerance by Conor and Davidson was used. This questionnaire is in a five-degree Likert scale form. It has seven criteria and is designed to measure the power of coping with pressure and threat. It has the needed content reliability and its reliability coefficient is normed using Cronbach's alpha of 0.87. Data were analyzed using Pearson correlation coefficient and multivariable regression. The results showed among various dimensions of organizational culture, there is a positive significant relationship between three dimensions (family, adhocracy, bureaucracy) and tolerance, there is a negative significant relationship between dimension of market and tolerance and components of organizational culture have the power of prediction and explaining the tolerance. In this explanation, the component of family is the most effective and the best predictor of tolerance.

Keywords: adhocracy, bureaucracy, organizational culture, tolerance

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Authors: Hamidoddin Yousife

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Drilling optimization requires a prediction of drilling rate of penetration (ROP) since it provides a significant reduction in drilling costs. There are several factors that can have an impact on the ROP, both controllable and uncontrollable. Numerous drilling penetration rate models have been considered based on drilling parameters. This papers considered the effect of proper drilling parameter selection such as bit, Mud Type, applied weight on bit (WOB), Revolution per minutes (RPM), and flow rate on drilling optimization and drilling cost reduction. A predicted analysis is used in real-time drilling performance to determine the optimal drilling operation. As a result of these modeling studies, the real data collected from three directional wells at Azadegan oil fields, Iran, was verified and adjusted to determine the drillability of a specific formation. Simulation results and actual drilling results show significant improvements in inaccuracy. Once simulations had been validated, optimum drilling parameters and equipment specifications were determined by varying weight on bit (WOB), rotary speed (RPM), hydraulics (hydraulic pressure), and bit specification for each well until the highest drilling rate was achieved. To evaluate the potential operational and economic benefits of optimizing results, a qualitative and quantitative analysis of the data was performed.

Keywords: drlling, cost, optimization, parameters

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Authors: Larry O. Awo, George N. Duru

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There are growing public and mental health concerns over the availability of gambling platforms and shops in Nigeria and the high level of youth involvement in gambling. Early theorizing maintained that gambling involvement was driven by a quest for resource gains. However, evidence shows that the economic model of gambling tends to explain the involvement of the gambling business owners (sport lottery operators: SLOs) as most gamblers lose more than they win. This loss, according to the law of effect, ought to discourage decisions to gamble. However, the quest to recover losses has often initiated prolonged gambling sessions. Therefore, the need to investigate mental contemplations (such as counterfactual reasoning (upward versus downward) of what “would, should, or could” have been, and feeling of the illusion of control; IOC) over gambling outcomes as risk or protective factors in gambling decisions became pertinent. The present study sought to understand the differential contributions and conditional effects of upward versus downward counterfactual reasoning as pathways through which the association between IOC and gambling decisions of Nigerian youths (N = 120, mean age = 18.05, SD = 3.81) could be explained. The study adopted a randomized group design, and data were obtained by means of stimulus material (the Gambling Episode; GE) and self-report measures of IOC and Gambling Decision. One-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) result showed that participants in the upward counterfactual reasoning group (M = 22.08) differed from their colleagues in the downward counterfactual reasoning group (M = 17.33) on the decision to gamble, and this difference was significant [F(1,112) = 23, P < .01]. HAYES PROCESS macro moderation analysis results showed that 1) IOC and upward counterfactual reasoning were positively associated with the decision to gamble (B = 14.21, t = 6.10, p < .01 and B = 7.22, t = 2.07, p <.05, respectively), 2) downward counterfactual reasoning was negatively associated with the decision to gamble more to recover losses (B = 10.03, t = 3.21, p < .01), 3) upward counterfactual reasoning did not moderate the association between IOC and gambling decision (p > .05), and 4) downward counterfactual reasoning negatively moderated the association between IOC and gambling decision (B = 07, t = 2.18, p < .05) such that the association was strong at the low level of downward counterfactual, but wane at high levels of downward counterfactual reasoning. The implication of these findings is that IOC and upward counterfactual reasoning were risk factors and promoted gambling behavior, while downward counterfactual reasoning protects individuals from gambling activities. Thus, it is concluded that downward counterfactual reasoning strategies should be included in gambling therapy and treatment packages as it could diminish feelings of both IOC and negative feelings of missed positive outcomes and the urge to gamble.

Keywords: counterfactual reasoning, gambling cognition, gambling decision, Nigeria, youths

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Authors: Sirilak Kongkaew, Pathumwadee Yodmanee, Nopporn Kaiyawet, Arthitaya Meeprasert, Thanyada Rungrotmongkol, Toshikatsu Kaburaki, Hiroshi Noguchi, Fujio Takeuch, Nawee Kungwan, Supot Hannongbua

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Behçet’s disease (BD) is a genetic autoimmune expressed by multisystemic inflammatory disorder mostly occurred at the skin, joints, gastrointestinal tract, and genitalia, including ocular, oral, genital, and central nervous systems. Most BD patients in Japan and Korea were strongly indicated by the genetic factor namely HLA-B*51 (especially, HLA-B*51:01) marker in HMC class I, while HLA-A*26:01 allele has been detected from the BD patients in Greek, Japan, and Taiwan. To understand the selective binding of the MICA-TM peptide towards the HLAs associated with BD, the molecular dynamics simulations were applied on the four HLA alleles (B*51:01, B*35:01, A*26:01, and A*11:01) in complex with such peptide. As a result, the key residues in the binding groove of HLA protein which play an important role in the MICA-TM peptide binding and stabilization were revealed. The Van der Waals force was found to be the main protein-protein interaction. Based on the binding free energy prediction by MM/PBSA method, the MICA-TM peptide interacted stronger to the HLA alleles associated to BD in the identical class by 7-12 kcal/mol. The obtained results from the present study could help to differentiate the HLA alleles and explain a source of Behçet’s disease.

Keywords: Behçet’s disease, MD simulations, HMC class I, autoimmune

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Authors: Yuntao Liu, Lei Wang, Haoran Xia

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Machine learning has shown extensive applications in the development of classification models for autism spectrum disorder (ASD) using neural image data. This paper proposes a fusion multi-modal classification network based on a graph neural network. First, the brain is segmented into 116 regions of interest using a medical segmentation template (AAL, Anatomical Automatic Labeling). The image features of sMRI and the signal features of fMRI are extracted, which build the node and edge embedding representations of the brain map. Then, we construct a dynamically updated brain map neural network and propose a method based on a dynamic brain map adjacency matrix update mechanism and learnable graph to further improve the accuracy of autism diagnosis and recognition results. Based on the Autism Brain Imaging Data Exchange I dataset(ABIDE I), we reached a prediction accuracy of 74% between ASD and TD subjects. Besides, to study the biomarkers that can help doctors analyze diseases and interpretability, we used the features by extracting the top five maximum and minimum ROI weights. This work provides a meaningful way for brain disorder identification.

Keywords: autism spectrum disorder, brain map, supervised machine learning, graph network, multimodal data, model interpretability

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Authors: Devin Doos, Ashley Hughes, Trang Pham, Paul Barach, Rami Ahmed

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Over 115,000 Health Care Workers (HCWs) have died from COVID-19, and millions have been infected while caring for patients. HCWs have filed thousands of safety complaints surrounding safety concerns due to Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) shortages, which included concerns around inadequate and PPE reuse. Protocols for donning and doffing PPE remain ambiguous, lacking an evidence-base, and often result in wide deviations in practice. PPE donning and doffing protocol deviations commonly result in self-contamination but have not been thoroughly addressed. No evidence-driven protocols provide guidance on protecting HCW during periods of PPE reuse. Objective: The aim of this study was to examine safety-related threats and risks to Health Care Workers (HCWs) due to the reuse of PPE among Emergency Department personnel. Method: We conducted a prospective observational study to examine the risks of reusing PPE. First, ED personnel were asked to don and doff PPE in a simulation lab. Each participant was asked to don and doff PPE five times, according to the maximum reuse recommendation set by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Each participant was videorecorded; video recordings were reviewed and coded independently by at least 2 of the 3trained coders for safety behaviors and riskiness of actions. A third coder was brought in when the agreement between the 2 coders could not be reached. Agreement between coders was high (81.9%), and all disagreements (100%) were resolved via consensus. A bowtie risk assessment chart was constructed analyzing the factors that contribute to increased risks HCW are faced with due to PPE use and reuse. Agreement amongst content experts in the field of Emergency Medicine, Human Factors, and Anesthesiology was used to select aspects of health care that both contribute and mitigate risks associated with PPE reuse. Findings: Twenty-eight clinician participants completed five rounds of donning/doffing PPE, yielding 140 PPE donning/doffing sequences. Two emerging threats were associated with behaviors in donning, doffing, and re-using PPE: (i) direct exposure to contaminant, and (ii) transmission/spread of contaminant. Protective behaviors included: hand hygiene, not touching the patient-facing surface of PPE, and ensuring a proper fit and closure of all PPE materials. 100% of participants (n= 28) deviated from the CDC recommended order, and most participants (92.85%, n=26) self-contaminated at least once during reuse. Other frequent errors included failure to tie all ties on the PPE (92.85%, n=26) and failure to wash hands after a contamination event occurred (39.28%, n=11). Conclusions: There is wide variation and regular errors in how HCW don and doffPPE while including in reusing PPE that led to self-contamination. Some errors were deemed “recoverable”, such as hand washing after touching a patient-facing surface to remove the contaminant. Other errors, such as using a contaminated mask and accidentally spreading to the neck and face, can lead to compound risks that are unique to repeated PPE use. A more comprehensive understanding of the contributing threats to HCW safety and complete approach to mitigating underlying risks, including visualizing with risk management toolsmay, aid future PPE designand workflow and space solutions.

Keywords: bowtie analysis, health care, PPE reuse, risk management

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Authors: Saeed Ghali, Hoda El-Faramawy, Mamdouh Eissa, Michael Mishreky

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Scale-resistant austenitic stainless steel, X45CrNiW 18-9, has been developed, and modified steels produced through partial and total nickel replacement by nitrogen. These modified steels were produced in a 10 kg induction furnace under different nitrogen pressures and were cast into ingots. The produced modified stainless steels were forged, followed by air cooling. The phases of modified stainless steels have been investigated using the Schaeffler diagram, dilatometer, and microstructure observations. Both partial and total replacement of nickel using 0.33-0.50% nitrogen are effective in producing fully austenitic stainless steels. The nitrogen contents were determined and compared with those calculated using the Institute of Metal Science (IMS) equation. The results showed great deviations between the actual nitrogen contents and predicted values through IMS equation. So, an equation has been derived based on chemical composition, pressure, and temperature at 1600oC. [N%] = 0.0078 + 0.0406*X, where X is a function of chemical composition and nitrogen pressure. The derived equation has been used to calculate the nitrogen content of different steels using published data. The results reveal the difficulty of deriving a general equation for the prediction of nitrogen content covering different steel compositions. So, it is necessary to use a narrow composition range.

Keywords: solubility, nitrogen, stainless steel, Schaeffler

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Authors: Zuoji Huang, Jinyan Sun, Chunlin Wang, Haiming Qian, Nan Xu

Abstract:

The spatial extent and area of central river bars can always vary due to the impact of water level, sediment supply and human activities. In 2016, a catastrophic flood disaster caused by sustained and heavy rainfall happened in the middle and lower Yangtze River. The flood led to the most serious economic and social loss since 1954, and strongly affected the central river bar. It is essential to continuously monitor the dynamics change of central bars because it can avoid frequent field measurements in central bars before and after the flood disaster and is helpful for flood warning. This paper focused on the dynamic change of central bars of Phoenix bar and Changsha bar in the Yangtze River in 2016. In this study, GF-1 (GaoFen-1) WFV(wide field view) data was employed owing to its high temporal frequency and high spatial resolution. A simple NDWI (Normalized Difference Water Index) method was utilized for river central bar mapping. Human-checking was then performed to ensure the mapping quality. The relationship between the area of central bars and the measured water level was estimated using four mathematical models. Furthermore, a risk assessment index was proposed to map the spatial pattern of inundation risk of central bars. The results indicate a good ability of the GF-1 WFV imagery with a 16-m spatial resolution to characterize the seasonal variation of central river bars and to capture the impact of a flood disaster on the area of central bars. This paper observed a significant negative but nonlinear relationship between the water level and the area of central bars, and found that the cubic function fits best among four models (R² = 0.9839, P < 0.000001, RMSE = 0.4395). The maximum of the inundated area of central bars appeared during the rainy season on July 8, 2016, and the minimum occurred during the dry season on December 28, 2016, which are consistent with the water level measured by the hydrological station. The results derived from GF-1 data could provide a useful reference for decision-making of real-time disaster early warning and post-disaster reconstruction.

Keywords: central bars, dynamic change, water level, the Yangtze river

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