Search results for: time workflow network
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 21652

Search results for: time workflow network

17932 Fill Rate Window as a Criterion for Spares Allocation

Authors: Michael Dreyfuss, Yahel Giat

Abstract:

Limited battery range and long recharging times are the greatest obstacles to the successful adoption of electric cars. One of the suggestions to overcome these problems is that carmakers retain ownership of batteries and provide battery swapping service so that customers exchange their depleted batteries for recharged batteries. Motivated by this example, we consider the problem of optimal spares allocation in an exchangeable-item, multi-location repair system. We generalize the standard service measures of fill rate and average waiting time to reflect the fact that customers penalize the service provider only if they have to wait more than a ‘tolerable’ time window. These measures are denoted as the window fill rate and the truncated waiting time, respectively. We find that the truncated waiting time is convex and therefore a greedy algorithm solves the spares allocation problem efficiently. We show that the window fill rate is generally S-shaped and describe an efficient algorithm to find a near-optimal solution and detail a priori and a posteriori upper bounds to the distance from optimum. The theory is complemented with a large scale numerical example demonstrating the spare battery allocation in battery swapping stations.

Keywords: convex-concave optimization, exchangeable item, M/G/infinity, multiple location, repair system, spares allocation, window fill rate

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17931 Thermodynamic Performance of a Low-Cost House Coated with Transparent Infrared Reflective Paint

Authors: Ochuko K. Overen, Edson L. Meyer

Abstract:

Uncontrolled heat transfer between the inner and outer space of low-cost housings through the thermal envelope result in indoor thermal discomfort. As a result, an excessive amount of energy is consumed for space heating and cooling. Thermo-optical properties are the ability of paints to reduce the rate of heat transfer through the thermal envelope. The aim of this study is to analyze the thermal performance of a low-cost house with its walls inner surface coated with transparent infrared reflective paint. The thermo-optical properties of the paint were analyzed using Scanning Electron Microscopy/ Energy Dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (SEM/EDX), Fourier Transform Infra-Red (FTIR) and thermal photographic technique. Meteorological indoor and ambient parameters such as; air temperature, relative humidity, solar radiation, wind speed and direction of a low-cost house in Golf-course settlement, South Africa were monitored. The monitoring period covers both winter and summer period before and after coating. The thermal performance of the coated walls was evaluated using time lag and decrement factor. The SEM image shows that the coat is transparent to light. The presence of Al as Al2O and other elements were revealed by the EDX spectrum. Before coating, the average decrement factor of the walls in summer was found to be 0.773 with a corresponding time lag of 1.3 hours. In winter, the average decrement factor and corresponding time lag were 0.467 and 1.6 hours, respectively. After coating, the average decrement factor and corresponding time lag were 0.533 and 2.3 hour, respectively in summer. In winter, an average decrement factor of 1.120 and corresponding time lag of 3 hours was observed. The findings show that the performance of the coats is influenced by the seasons. With a 74% reduction in decrement factor and 1.4 time lag increase in winter, it implies that the coatings have more ability to retain heat within the inner space of the house than preventing heat flow into the house. In conclusion, the results have shown that transparent infrared reflective paint has the ability to reduce the propagation of heat flux through building walls. Hence, it can serve as a remedy to the poor thermal performance of low-cost housings in South Africa.

Keywords: energy efficiency, decrement factor, low-cost housing, paints, rural development, thermal comfort, time lag

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17930 Advantages of Neural Network Based Air Data Estimation for Unmanned Aerial Vehicles

Authors: Angelo Lerro, Manuela Battipede, Piero Gili, Alberto Brandl

Abstract:

Redundancy requirements for UAV (Unmanned Aerial Vehicle) are hardly faced due to the generally restricted amount of available space and allowable weight for the aircraft systems, limiting their exploitation. Essential equipment as the Air Data, Attitude and Heading Reference Systems (ADAHRS) require several external probes to measure significant data as the Angle of Attack or the Sideslip Angle. Previous research focused on the analysis of a patented technology named Smart-ADAHRS (Smart Air Data, Attitude and Heading Reference System) as an alternative method to obtain reliable and accurate estimates of the aerodynamic angles. This solution is based on an innovative sensor fusion algorithm implementing soft computing techniques and it allows to obtain a simplified inertial and air data system reducing external devices. In fact, only one external source of dynamic and static pressures is needed. This paper focuses on the benefits which would be gained by the implementation of this system in UAV applications. A simplification of the entire ADAHRS architecture will bring to reduce the overall cost together with improved safety performance. Smart-ADAHRS has currently reached Technology Readiness Level (TRL) 6. Real flight tests took place on ultralight aircraft equipped with a suitable Flight Test Instrumentation (FTI). The output of the algorithm using the flight test measurements demonstrates the capability for this fusion algorithm to embed in a single device multiple physical and virtual sensors. Any source of dynamic and static pressure can be integrated with this system gaining a significant improvement in terms of versatility.

Keywords: aerodynamic angles, air data system, flight test, neural network, unmanned aerial vehicle, virtual sensor

Procedia PDF Downloads 221
17929 The Narrative Coherence of Autistic Children’s Accounts of an Experienced Event over Time

Authors: Fuming Yang, Telma Sousa Almeida, Xinyu Li, Yunxi Deng, Heying Zhang, Michael E. Lamb

Abstract:

Twenty-seven children aged 6-15 years with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) and 32 typically developing children were questioned about their participation in a set of activities after a two-week delay and again after a two-month delay, using a best-practice interview protocol. This paper assessed the narrative coherence of children’s reports based on key story grammar elements and temporal features included in their accounts of the event. Results indicated that, over time, both children with ASD and typically developing (TD) children decreased their narrative coherence. Children with ASD were no different from TD peers with regards to story length and syntactic complexity. However, they showed significantly less coherence than TD children. They were less likely to use the gist of the story to organize their narrative coherence. Interviewer prompts influenced children’s narrative coherence. The findings indicated that children with ASD could provide meaningful and reliable testimony about an event they personally experienced, but the narrative coherence of their reports deteriorates over time and is affected by interviewer prompts.

Keywords: autism spectrum disorders, delay, eyewitness testimony, narrative coherence

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17928 Combination of Unmanned Aerial Vehicle and Terrestrial Laser Scanner Data for Citrus Yield Estimation

Authors: Mohammed Hmimou, Khalid Amediaz, Imane Sebari, Nabil Bounajma

Abstract:

Annual crop production is one of the most important macroeconomic indicators for the majority of countries around the world. This information is valuable, especially for exporting countries which need a yield estimation before harvest in order to correctly plan the supply chain. When it comes to estimating agricultural yield, especially for arboriculture, conventional methods are mostly applied. In the case of the citrus industry, the sale before harvest is largely practiced, which requires an estimation of the production when the fruit is on the tree. However, conventional method based on the sampling surveys of some trees within the field is always used to perform yield estimation, and the success of this process mainly depends on the expertise of the ‘estimator agent’. The present study aims to propose a methodology based on the combination of unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) images and terrestrial laser scanner (TLS) point cloud to estimate citrus production. During data acquisition, a fixed wing and rotatory drones, as well as a terrestrial laser scanner, were tested. After that, a pre-processing step was performed in order to generate point cloud and digital surface model. At the processing stage, a machine vision workflow was implemented to extract points corresponding to fruits from the whole tree point cloud, cluster them into fruits, and model them geometrically in a 3D space. By linking the resulting geometric properties to the fruit weight, the yield can be estimated, and the statistical distribution of fruits size can be generated. This later property, which is information required by importing countries of citrus, cannot be estimated before harvest using the conventional method. Since terrestrial laser scanner is static, data gathering using this technology can be performed over only some trees. So, integration of drone data was thought in order to estimate the yield over a whole orchard. To achieve that, features derived from drone digital surface model were linked to yield estimation by laser scanner of some trees to build a regression model that predicts the yield of a tree given its features. Several missions were carried out to collect drone and laser scanner data within citrus orchards of different varieties by testing several data acquisition parameters (fly height, images overlap, fly mission plan). The accuracy of the obtained results by the proposed methodology in comparison to the yield estimation results by the conventional method varies from 65% to 94% depending mainly on the phenological stage of the studied citrus variety during the data acquisition mission. The proposed approach demonstrates its strong potential for early estimation of citrus production and the possibility of its extension to other fruit trees.

Keywords: citrus, digital surface model, point cloud, terrestrial laser scanner, UAV, yield estimation, 3D modeling

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17927 Comparison of Frequency-Domain Contention Schemes in Wireless LANs

Authors: Li Feng

Abstract:

In IEEE 802.11 networks, it is well known that the traditional time-domain contention often leads to low channel utilization. The first frequency-domain contention scheme, the time to frequency (T2F), has recently been proposed to improve the channel utilization and has attracted a great deal of attention. In this paper, we survey the latest research progress on the weighed frequency-domain contention. We present the basic ideas, work principles of these related schemes and point out their differences. This paper is very useful for further study on frequency-domain contention.

Keywords: 802.11, wireless LANs, frequency-domain contention, T2F

Procedia PDF Downloads 459
17926 Flexible Communication Platform for Crisis Management

Authors: Jiří Barta, Tomáš Ludík, Jiří Urbánek

Abstract:

The topics of disaster and emergency management are highly debated among experts. Fast communication will help to deal with emergencies. Problem is with the network connection and data exchange. The paper suggests a solution, which allows possibilities and perspectives of new flexible communication platform to the protection of communication systems for crisis management. This platform is used for everyday communication and communication in crisis situations too.

Keywords: crisis management, information systems, interoperability, crisis communication, security environment, communication platform

Procedia PDF Downloads 475
17925 Optimization of the Numerical Fracture Mechanics

Authors: H. Hentati, R. Abdelmoula, Li Jia, A. Maalej

Abstract:

In this work, we present numerical simulations of the quasi-static crack propagation based on the variation approach. We perform numerical simulations of a piece of brittle material without initial crack. An alternate minimization algorithm is used. Based on these numerical results, we determine the influence of numerical parameters on the location of crack. We show the importance of trying to optimize the time of numerical computation and we present the first attempt to develop a simple numerical method to optimize this time.

Keywords: fracture mechanics, optimization, variation approach, mechanic

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17924 A Hybrid Algorithm Based on Greedy Randomized Adaptive Search Procedure and Chemical Reaction Optimization for the Vehicle Routing Problem with Hard Time Windows

Authors: Imen Boudali, Marwa Ragmoun

Abstract:

The Vehicle Routing Problem with Hard Time Windows (VRPHTW) is a basic distribution management problem that models many real-world problems. The objective of the problem is to deliver a set of customers with known demands on minimum-cost vehicle routes while satisfying vehicle capacity and hard time windows for customers. In this paper, we propose to deal with our optimization problem by using a new hybrid stochastic algorithm based on two metaheuristics: Chemical Reaction Optimization (CRO) and Greedy Randomized Adaptive Search Procedure (GRASP). The first method is inspired by the natural process of chemical reactions enabling the transformation of unstable substances with excessive energy to stable ones. During this process, the molecules interact with each other through a series of elementary reactions to reach minimum energy for their existence. This property is embedded in CRO to solve the VRPHTW. In order to enhance the population diversity throughout the search process, we integrated the GRASP in our method. Simulation results on the base of Solomon’s benchmark instances show the very satisfactory performances of the proposed approach.

Keywords: Benchmark Problems, Combinatorial Optimization, Vehicle Routing Problem with Hard Time Windows, Meta-heuristics, Hybridization, GRASP, CRO

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17923 Impact of Joule Heating on the Electrical Conduction Behavior of Carbon Composite Laminates under Simulated Lightning Strike

Authors: Hong Yu, Dirk Heider, Suresh Advani

Abstract:

Increasing demands for high strength and lightweight materials in aircraft industry prompted the wide use of carbon composites in recent decades. Carbon composite laminates used on aircraft structures are subject to lightning strikes. Unlike its metal/alloy counterparts, carbon fiber reinforced composites demonstrate smaller electrical conductivity, yielding more severe damages due to Joule heating. The anisotropic nature of composite laminates makes the electrical and thermal conduction within carbon composite laminates even more complicated. Good understanding of the electrical conduction behavior of carbon composites is the key to effective lightning protection design. The goal of this study is to numerically and experimentally investigate the impact of ultra-high temperature induced by simulated lightning strike on the electrical conduction of carbon composites. A lightning simulator is designed to apply standard lightning current waveform to composite laminates. Multiple carbon composite laminates made from IM7 and AS4 carbon fiber are tested and the transient resistance data is recorded. A microstructure based resistor network model is developed to describe the electrical and thermal conduction behavior, with consideration of temperature dependent material properties. Material degradations such as thermal and electrical breakdown are also modeled to include the effect of high current and high temperature induced by lightning strikes. Good match between the simulation results and experimental data indicates that the developed model captures the major conduction mechanisms. A parametric study is then conducted using the validated model to investigate the effect of system parameters such as fiber volume fraction, inter-ply interface quality, and lightning current waveforms.

Keywords: carbon composite, joule heating, lightning strike, resistor network

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17922 Numerical Evolution Methods of Rational Form for Diffusion Equations

Authors: Said Algarni

Abstract:

The purpose of this study was to investigate selected numerical methods that demonstrate good performance in solving PDEs. We adapted alternative method that involve rational polynomials. Padé time stepping (PTS) method, which is highly stable for the purposes of the present application and is associated with lower computational costs, was applied. Furthermore, PTS was modified for our study which focused on diffusion equations. Numerical runs were conducted to obtain the optimal local error control threshold.

Keywords: Padé time stepping, finite difference, reaction diffusion equation, PDEs

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17921 Derivation of a Risk-Based Level of Service Index for Surface Street Network Using Reliability Analysis

Authors: Chang-Jen Lan

Abstract:

Current Level of Service (LOS) index adopted in Highway Capacity Manual (HCM) for signalized intersections on surface streets is based on the intersection average delay. The delay thresholds for defining LOS grades are subjective and is unrelated to critical traffic condition. For example, an intersection delay of 80 sec per vehicle for failing LOS grade F does not necessarily correspond to the intersection capacity. Also, a specific measure of average delay may result from delay minimization, delay equality, or other meaningful optimization criteria. To that end, a reliability version of the intersection critical degree of saturation (v/c) as the LOS index is introduced. Traditionally, the level of saturation at a signalized intersection is defined as the ratio of critical volume sum (per lane) to the average saturation flow (per lane) during all available effective green time within a cycle. The critical sum is the sum of the maximal conflicting movement-pair volumes in northbound-southbound and eastbound/westbound right of ways. In this study, both movement volume and saturation flow are assumed log-normal distributions. Because, when the conditions of central limit theorem obtain, multiplication of the independent, positive random variables tends to result in a log-normal distributed outcome in the limit, the critical degree of saturation is expected to be a log-normal distribution as well. Derivation of the risk index predictive limits is complex due to the maximum and absolute value operators, as well as the ratio of random variables. A fairly accurate functional form for the predictive limit at a user-specified significant level is yielded. The predictive limit is then compared with the designated LOS thresholds for the intersection critical degree of saturation (denoted as X

Keywords: reliability analysis, level of service, intersection critical degree of saturation, risk based index

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17920 Optimization of Process Parameters in Wire Electrical Discharge Machining of Inconel X-750 for Dimensional Deviation Using Taguchi Technique

Authors: Mandeep Kumar, Hari Singh

Abstract:

The effective optimization of machining process parameters affects dramatically the cost and production time of machined components as well as the quality of the final products. This paper presents the optimization aspects of a Wire Electrical Discharge Machining operation using Inconel X-750 as work material. The objective considered in this study is minimization of the dimensional deviation. Six input process parameters of WEDM namely spark gap voltage, pulse-on time, pulse-off time, wire feed rate, peak current and wire tension, were chosen as variables to study the process performance. Taguchi's design of experiments methodology has been used for planning and designing the experiments. The analysis of variance was carried out for raw data as well as for signal to noise ratio. Four input parameters and one two-factor interaction have been found to be statistically significant for their effects on the response of interest. The confirmation experiments were also performed for validating the predicted results.

Keywords: ANOVA, DOE, inconel, machining, optimization

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17919 Performance Assessment of Carrier Aggregation-Based Indoor Mobile Networks

Authors: Viktor R. Stoynov, Zlatka V. Valkova-Jarvis

Abstract:

The intelligent management and optimisation of radio resource technologies will lead to a considerable improvement in the overall performance in Next Generation Networks (NGNs). Carrier Aggregation (CA) technology, also known as Spectrum Aggregation, enables more efficient use of the available spectrum by combining multiple Component Carriers (CCs) in a virtual wideband channel. LTE-A (Long Term Evolution–Advanced) CA technology can combine multiple adjacent or separate CCs in the same band or in different bands. In this way, increased data rates and dynamic load balancing can be achieved, resulting in a more reliable and efficient operation of mobile networks and the enabling of high bandwidth mobile services. In this paper, several distinct CA deployment strategies for the utilisation of spectrum bands are compared in indoor-outdoor scenarios, simulated via the recently-developed Realistic Indoor Environment Generator (RIEG). We analyse the performance of the User Equipment (UE) by integrating the average throughput, the level of fairness of radio resource allocation, and other parameters, into one summative assessment termed a Comparative Factor (CF). In addition, comparison of non-CA and CA indoor mobile networks is carried out under different load conditions: varying numbers and positions of UEs. The experimental results demonstrate that the CA technology can improve network performance, especially in the case of indoor scenarios. Additionally, we show that an increase of carrier frequency does not necessarily lead to improved CF values, due to high wall-penetration losses. The performance of users under bad-channel conditions, often located in the periphery of the cells, can be improved by intelligent CA location. Furthermore, a combination of such a deployment and effective radio resource allocation management with respect to user-fairness plays a crucial role in improving the performance of LTE-A networks.

Keywords: comparative factor, carrier aggregation, indoor mobile network, resource allocation

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17918 Relativistic Effects of Rotation

Authors: Yin Rui, Yin Ming, Wang Yang

Abstract:

For a rotational reference frame of the theory of special relativity, the critical radius is defined as the distance from the axis to the point where the tangential velocity is equal to the speed of light, and the critical cylinder as the set of all points separated from the axis by this critical radius. Based on these terms, two relativistic effects of rotation are discovered: (i) the tangential velocity in the region of Outside Critical Cylinder (OCC) is not superluminal due to the existence of space-time exchange; (ii) some of the physical quantities of the rotational body have an opposite mathematic sign at OCC versus those at Inside Critical Cylinder (ICC), which is termed as the Critical Cylindrical Effect (CCE). The laboratory experiments demonstrate that the repulsive force exerted on an anion by electrons will change to an attractive force by the electrons in precession while the anion is at OCC of the precession. Thirty-six screenshots from four experimental videos are provided. Theoretical proofs for both space-time exchange and CCE are then presented. The CCEs of field force are also discussed.

Keywords: critical radius, critical cylindrical effect, special relativity, space-time exchange

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17917 A Method of Detecting the Difference in Two States of Brain Using Statistical Analysis of EEG Raw Data

Authors: Digvijaysingh S. Bana, Kiran R. Trivedi

Abstract:

This paper introduces various methods for the alpha wave to detect the difference between two states of brain. One healthy subject participated in the experiment. EEG was measured on the forehead above the eye (FP1 Position) with reference and ground electrode are on the ear clip. The data samples are obtained in the form of EEG raw data. The time duration of reading is of one minute. Various test are being performed on the alpha band EEG raw data.The readings are performed in different time duration of the entire day. The statistical analysis is being carried out on the EEG sample data in the form of various tests.

Keywords: electroencephalogram(EEG), biometrics, authentication, EEG raw data

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17916 Power Ultrasound Application on Convective Drying of Banana (Musa paradisiaca), Mango (Mangifera indica L.) and Guava (Psidium guajava L.)

Authors: Erika K. Méndez, Carlos E. Orrego, Diana L. Manrique, Juan D. Gonzalez, Doménica Vallejo

Abstract:

High moisture content in fruits generates post-harvest problems such as mechanical, biochemical, microbial and physical losses. Dehydration, which is based on the reduction of water activity of the fruit, is a common option for overcoming such losses. However, regular hot air drying could affect negatively the quality properties of the fruit due to the long residence time at high temperature. Power ultrasound (US) application during the convective drying has been used as a novel method able to enhance drying rate and, consequently, to decrease drying time. In the present study, a new approach was tested to evaluate the effect of US on the drying time, the final antioxidant activity (AA) and the total polyphenol content (TPC) of banana slices (BS), mango slices (MS) and guava slices (GS). There were also studied the drying kinetics with nine different models from which water effective diffusivities (Deff) (with or without shrinkage corrections) were calculated. Compared with the corresponding control tests, US assisted drying for fruit slices showed reductions in drying time between 16.23 and 30.19%, 11.34 and 32.73%, and 19.25 and 47.51% for the MS, BS and GS respectively. Considering shrinkage effects, Deff calculated values ranged from 1.67*10-10 to 3.18*10-10 m2/s, 3.96*10-10 and 5.57*10-10 m2/s and 4.61*10-10 to 8.16*10-10 m2/s for the BS, MS and GS samples respectively. Reductions of TPC and AA (as DPPH) were observed compared with the original content in fresh fruit data in all kinds of drying assays.

Keywords: banana, drying, effective diffusivity, guava, mango, ultrasound

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17915 Discrete Estimation of Spectral Density for Alpha Stable Signals Observed with an Additive Error

Authors: R. Sabre, W. Horrigue, J. C. Simon

Abstract:

This paper is interested in two difficulties encountered in practice when observing a continuous time process. The first is that we cannot observe a process over a time interval; we only take discrete observations. The second is the process frequently observed with a constant additive error. It is important to give an estimator of the spectral density of such a process taking into account the additive observation error and the choice of the discrete observation times. In this work, we propose an estimator based on the spectral smoothing of the periodogram by the polynomial Jackson kernel reducing the additive error. In order to solve the aliasing phenomenon, this estimator is constructed from observations taken at well-chosen times so as to reduce the estimator to the field where the spectral density is not zero. We show that the proposed estimator is asymptotically unbiased and consistent. Thus we obtain an estimate solving the two difficulties concerning the choice of the instants of observations of a continuous time process and the observations affected by a constant error.

Keywords: spectral density, stable processes, aliasing, periodogram

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17914 Virtual Reality and Avatars in Education

Authors: Michael Brazley

Abstract:

Virtual Reality (VR) and 3D videos are the most current generation of learning technology today. Virtual Reality and 3D videos are being used in professional offices and Schools now for marketing and education. Technology in the field of design has progress from two dimensional drawings to 3D models, using computers and sophisticated software. Virtual Reality is being used as collaborative means to allow designers and others to meet and communicate inside models or VR platforms using avatars. This research proposes to teach students from different backgrounds how to take a digital model into a 3D video, then into VR, and finally VR with multiple avatars communicating with each other in real time. The next step would be to develop the model where people from three or more different locations can meet as avatars in real time, in the same model and talk to each other. This research is longitudinal, studying the use of 3D videos in graduate design and Virtual Reality in XR (Extended Reality) courses. The research methodology is a combination of quantitative and qualitative methods. The qualitative methods begin with the literature review and case studies. The quantitative methods come by way of student’s 3D videos, survey, and Extended Reality (XR) course work. The end product is to develop a VR platform with multiple avatars being able to communicate in real time. This research is important because it will allow multiple users to remotely enter your model or VR platform from any location in the world and effectively communicate in real time. This research will lead to improved learning and training using Virtual Reality and Avatars; and is generalizable because most Colleges, Universities, and many citizens own VR equipment and computer labs. This research did produce a VR platform with multiple avatars having the ability to move and speak to each other in real time. Major implications of the research include but not limited to improved: learning, teaching, communication, marketing, designing, planning, etc. Both hardware and software played a major role in project success.

Keywords: virtual reality, avatars, education, XR

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17913 Oil Demand Forecasting in China: A Structural Time Series Analysis

Authors: Tehreem Fatima, Enjun Xia

Abstract:

The research investigates the relationship between total oil consumption and transport oil consumption, GDP, oil price, and oil reserve in order to forecast future oil demand in China. Annual time series data is used over the period of 1980 to 2015, and for this purpose, an oil demand function is estimated by applying structural time series model (STSM). The technique also uncovers the Underline energy demand trend (UEDT) for China oil demand and GDP, oil reserve, oil price and UEDT are considering important drivers of China oil demand. The long-run elasticity of total oil consumption with respect to GDP and price are (0.5, -0.04) respectively while GDP, oil reserve, and price remain (0.17; 0.23; -0.05) respectively. Moreover, the Estimated results of long-run elasticity of transport oil consumption with respect to GDP and price are (0.5, -0.00) respectively long-run estimates remain (0.28; 37.76;-37.8) for GDP, oil reserve, and price respectively. For both model estimated underline energy demand trend (UEDT) remains nonlinear and stochastic and with an increasing trend of (UEDT) and based on estimated equations, it is predicted that China total oil demand somewhere will be 9.9 thousand barrel per day by 2025 as compare to 9.4 thousand barrel per day in 2015, while transport oil demand predicting value is 9.0 thousand barrel per day by 2020 as compare to 8.8 thousand barrel per day in 2015.

Keywords: china, forecasting, oil, structural time series model (STSM), underline energy demand trend (UEDT)

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17912 Delays for Emergency Cesarean Sections and Neonatal Outcomes in Three Rural District Hospitals in Rwanda: A Retrospective Cross-Sectional Study

Authors: J. Niyitegeka, G. Nshimirimana, A. Silverstein, J. Odhiambo, Y. Lin, T. Nkurunziza, R. Riviello, S. Rulisa, P. Banguti, H. Magge, M. Macharia, J. P. Dushime, R. Habimana, B. Hedt-Gauthier

Abstract:

In low-resource settings, women needing an emergency cesarean section experiences various delays in both reaching and receiving care that is often linked to poor neonatal outcomes. In this study, we quantified different measures of delays and assessed the association between these delays and neonatal outcomes at three rural district hospitals in Rwanda. This retrospective study included 441 neonates and their mothers who underwent emergency cesarean sections in 2015 at Butaro, Kirehe and Rwinkwavu District Hospitals. Four possible delays were measured: Time from start of labor to district hospital admission, travel time from a health center to the district hospital, time from admission to surgical incision, and time from the decision for the emergency cesarean section to surgical incision. Neonatal outcomes were categorized as unfavorable (APGAR < 7 or death) and favorable (APGAR ≥ 7). We assessed the relationship between each type of delay and neonatal outcomes using multivariate logistic regression. In our study, 38.7% (108 out of 279) of neonates’ mothers labored for 12 to 24 hours before hospital admission and 44.7% (159 of 356) of mothers were transferred from health centers that required 30 to 60 minutes of travel time to reach the district hospital. 48.1% (178 of 370) of caesarean sections started within five hours after admission and 85.2% (288 of 338) started more than thirty minutes after the decision for the emergency cesarean section was made. Neonatal outcomes were significantly worse among mothers with more than 90 minutes of travel time from the health center to the district hospital compared to health centers attached to the hospital (OR = 5.12, p = 0.02). Neonatal outcomes were also significantly different depending on decision to incision intervals; neonates with cesarean deliveries starting more than thirty minutes after decision had better outcomes than those started immediately (OR = 0.32, p = 0.04). Interventions that decrease barriers to access to maternal health care services can improve neonatal outcome after emergency cesarean section. Triaging could explain the inverse relationship between time from decision to incision and neonatal outcome; this must be studied more in the future.

Keywords: Africa, emergency obstetric care, rural health delivery, maternal and child health

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17911 Vehicle Routing Problem with Mixed Fleet of Conventional and Heterogenous Electric Vehicles and Time Dependent Charging Costs

Authors: Ons Sassi, Wahiba Ramdane Cherif-Khettaf, Ammar Oulamara

Abstract:

In this paper, we consider a new real-life Heterogenous Electric Vehicle Routing Problem with Time Dependant Charging Costs and a Mixed Fleet (HEVRP-TDMF), in which a set of geographically scattered customers have to be served by a mixed fleet of vehicles composed of a heterogenous fleet of Electric Vehicles (EVs), having different battery capacities and operating costs, and Conventional Vehicles (CVs). We include the possibility of charging EVs in the available charging stations during the routes in order to serve all customers. Each charging station offers charging service with a known technology of chargers and time-dependent charging costs. Charging stations are also subject to operating time windows constraints. EVs are not necessarily compatible with all available charging technologies and a partial charging is allowed. Intermittent charging at the depot is also allowed provided that constraints related to the electricity grid are satisfied. The objective is to minimize the number of employed vehicles and then minimize the total travel and charging costs. In this study, we present a Mixed Integer Programming Model and develop a Charging Routing Heuristic and a Local Search Heuristic based on the Inject-Eject routine with three different insertion strategies. All heuristics are tested on real data instances.

Keywords: charging problem, electric vehicle, heuristics, local search, optimization, routing problem

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17910 Estimation of Consolidating Settlement Based on a Time-Dependent Skin Friction Model Considering Column Surface Roughness

Authors: Jiang Zhenbo, Ishikura Ryohei, Yasufuku Noriyuki

Abstract:

Improvement of soft clay deposits by the combination of surface stabilization and floating type cement-treated columns is one of the most popular techniques worldwide. On the basis of one dimensional consolidation model, a time-dependent skin friction model for the column-soil interaction is proposed. The nonlinear relationship between column shaft shear stresses and effective vertical pressure of the surrounding soil can be described in this model. The influence of column-soil surface roughness can be represented using a roughness coefficient R, which plays an important role in the design of column length. Based on the homogenization method, a part of floating type improved ground will be treated as an unimproved portion, which with a length of αH1 is defined as a time-dependent equivalent skin friction length. The compression settlement of this unimproved portion can be predicted only using the soft clay parameters. Apart from calculating the settlement of this composited ground, the load transfer mechanism is discussed utilizing model tests. The proposed model is validated by comparing with calculations and laboratory results of model and ring shear tests, which indicate the suitability and accuracy of the solutions in this paper.

Keywords: floating type improved foundation, time-dependent skin friction, roughness, consolidation

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17909 Functional Connectivity Signatures of Polygenic Depression Risk in Youth

Authors: Louise Moles, Steve Riley, Sarah D. Lichenstein, Marzieh Babaeianjelodar, Robert Kohler, Annie Cheng, Corey Horien Abigail Greene, Wenjing Luo, Jonathan Ahern, Bohan Xu, Yize Zhao, Chun Chieh Fan, R. Todd Constable, Sarah W. Yip

Abstract:

Background: Risks for depression are myriad and include both genetic and brain-based factors. However, relationships between these systems are poorly understood, limiting understanding of disease etiology, particularly at the developmental level. Methods: We use a data-driven machine learning approach connectome-based predictive modeling (CPM) to identify functional connectivity signatures associated with polygenic risk scores for depression (DEP-PRS) among youth from the Adolescent Brain and Cognitive Development (ABCD) study across diverse brain states, i.e., during resting state, during affective working memory, during response inhibition, during reward processing. Results: Using 10-fold cross-validation with 100 iterations and permutation testing, CPM identified connectivity signatures of DEP-PRS across all examined brain states (rho’s=0.20-0.27, p’s<.001). Across brain states, DEP-PRS was positively predicted by increased connectivity between frontoparietal and salience networks, increased motor-sensory network connectivity, decreased salience to subcortical connectivity, and decreased subcortical to motor-sensory connectivity. Subsampling analyses demonstrated that model accuracies were robust across random subsamples of N’s=1,000, N’s=500, and N’s=250 but became unstable at N’s=100. Conclusions: These data, for the first time, identify neural networks of polygenic depression risk in a large sample of youth before the onset of significant clinical impairment. Identified networks may be considered potential treatment targets or vulnerability markers for depression risk.

Keywords: genetics, functional connectivity, pre-adolescents, depression

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17908 Time Series Modelling for Forecasting Wheat Production and Consumption of South Africa in Time of War

Authors: Yiseyon Hosu, Joseph Akande

Abstract:

Wheat is one of the most important staple food grains of human for centuries and is largely consumed in South Africa. It has a special place in the South African economy because of its significance in food security, trade, and industry. This paper modelled and forecast the production and consumption of wheat in South Africa in the time covid-19 and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war by using annual time series data from 1940–2021 based on the ARIMA models. Both the averaging forecast and selected models forecast indicate that there is the possibility of an increase with respect to production. The minimum and maximum growth in production is projected to be between 3million and 10 million tons, respectively. However, the model also forecast a possibility of depression with respect to consumption in South Africa. Although Covid-19 and the war between Ukraine and Russia, two major producers and exporters of global wheat, are having an effect on the volatility of the prices currently, the wheat production in South African is expected to increase and meat the consumption demand and provided an opportunity for increase export with respect to domestic consumption. The forecasting of production and consumption behaviours of major crops play an important role towards food and nutrition security, these findings can assist policymakers and will provide them with insights into the production and pricing policy of wheat in South Africa.

Keywords: ARIMA, food security, price volatility, staple food, South Africa

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17907 Time Delayed Susceptible-Vaccinated-Infected-Recovered-Susceptible Epidemic Model along with Nonlinear Incidence and Nonlinear Treatment

Authors: Kanica Goel, Nilam

Abstract:

Infectious diseases are a leading cause of death worldwide and hence a great challenge for every nation. Thus, it becomes utmost essential to prevent and reduce the spread of infectious disease among humans. Mathematical models help to better understand the transmission dynamics and spread of infections. For this purpose, in the present article, we have proposed a nonlinear time-delayed SVIRS (Susceptible-Vaccinated-Infected-Recovered-Susceptible) mathematical model with nonlinear type incidence rate and nonlinear type treatment rate. Analytical study of the model shows that model exhibits two types of equilibrium points, namely, disease-free equilibrium and endemic equilibrium. Further, for the long-term behavior of the model, stability of the model is discussed with the help of basic reproduction number R₀ and we showed that disease-free equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable if the basic reproduction number R₀ is less than one and unstable if the basic reproduction number R₀ is greater than one for the time lag τ≥0. Furthermore, when basic reproduction number R₀ is one, using center manifold theory and Casillo-Chavez and Song theorem, we showed that the model undergoes transcritical bifurcation. Moreover, numerical simulations are being carried out using MATLAB 2012b to illustrate the theoretical results.

Keywords: nonlinear incidence rate, nonlinear treatment rate, stability, time delayed SVIRS epidemic model

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17906 Time and Energy Saving Kitchen Layout

Authors: Poonam Magu, Kumud Khanna, Premavathy Seetharaman

Abstract:

The two important resources of any worker performing any type of work at any workplace are time and energy. These are important inputs of the worker and need to be utilised in the best possible manner. The kitchen is an important workplace where the homemaker performs many essential activities. Its layout should be so designed that optimum use of her resources can be achieved.Ideally, the shape of the kitchen, as determined by the physical space enclosed by the four walls, can be square, rectangular or irregular. But it is the shape of the arrangement of counter that one normally refers to while talking of the layout of the kitchen. The arrangement can be along a single wall, along two opposite walls, L shape, U shape or even island. A study was conducted in 50 kitchens belonging to middle income group families. These were DDA built kitchens located in North, South, East and West Delhi.The study was conducted in three phases. In the first phase, 510 non working homemakers were interviewed. The data related to personal characteristics of the homemakers was collected. Additional information was also collected regarding the kitchens-the size, shape , etc. The homemakers were also questioned about various aspects related to meal preparation-people performing the task, number of items cooked, areas used for meal preparation , etc. In the second phase, a suitable technique was designed for conducting time and motion study in the kitchen while the meal was being prepared. This technique was called Path Process Chart. The final phase was carried out in 50 kitchens. The criterion for selection was that all items for a meal should be cooked at the same time. All the meals were cooked by the homemakers in their own kitchens. The meal preparation was studied using the Path Process Chart technique. The data collected was analysed and conclusions drawn. It was found that of all the shapes, it was the kitchen with L shape arrangement in which, on an average a homemaker spent minimum time on meal preparation and also travelled the minimum distance. Thus, the average distance travelled in a L shaped layout was 131.1 mts as compared to 181.2 mts in an U shaped layout. Similarly, 48 minutes was the average time spent on meal preparation in L shaped layout as compared to 53 minutes in U shaped layout. Thus, the L shaped layout was more time and energy saving layout as compared to U shaped.

Keywords: kitchen layout, meal preparation, path process chart technique, workplace

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17905 Development of Real Time System for Human Detection and Localization from Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Using Optical and Thermal Sensor and Visualization on Geographic Information Systems Platform

Authors: Nemi Bhattarai

Abstract:

In recent years, there has been a rapid increase in the use of Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAVs) in search and rescue (SAR) operations, disaster management, and many more areas where information about the location of human beings are important. This research will primarily focus on the use of optical and thermal camera via UAV platform in real-time detection, localization, and visualization of human beings on GIS. This research will be beneficial in disaster management search of lost humans in wilderness or difficult terrain, detecting abnormal human behaviors in border or security tight areas, studying distribution of people at night, counting people density in crowd, manage people flow during evacuation, planning provisions in areas with high human density and many more.

Keywords: UAV, human detection, real-time, localization, visualization, haar-like, GIS, thermal sensor

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17904 Artificial Neural Network Approach for Modeling and Optimization of Conidiospore Production of Trichoderma harzianum

Authors: Joselito Medina-Marin, Maria G. Serna-Diaz, Alejandro Tellez-Jurado, Juan C. Seck-Tuoh-Mora, Eva S. Hernandez-Gress, Norberto Hernandez-Romero, Iaina P. Medina-Serna

Abstract:

Trichoderma harzianum is a fungus that has been utilized as a low-cost fungicide for biological control of pests, and it is important to determine the optimal conditions to produce the highest amount of conidiospores of Trichoderma harzianum. In this work, the conidiospore production of Trichoderma harzianum is modeled and optimized by using Artificial Neural Networks (AANs). In order to gather data of this process, 30 experiments were carried out taking into account the number of hours of culture (10 distributed values from 48 to 136 hours) and the culture humidity (70, 75 and 80 percent), obtained as a response the number of conidiospores per gram of dry mass. The experimental results were used to develop an iterative algorithm to create 1,110 ANNs, with different configurations, starting from one to three hidden layers, and every hidden layer with a number of neurons from 1 to 10. Each ANN was trained with the Levenberg-Marquardt backpropagation algorithm, which is used to learn the relationship between input and output values. The ANN with the best performance was chosen in order to simulate the process and be able to maximize the conidiospores production. The obtained ANN with the highest performance has 2 inputs and 1 output, three hidden layers with 3, 10 and 10 neurons in each layer, respectively. The ANN performance shows an R2 value of 0.9900, and the Root Mean Squared Error is 1.2020. This ANN predicted that 644175467 conidiospores per gram of dry mass are the maximum amount obtained in 117 hours of culture and 77% of culture humidity. In summary, the ANN approach is suitable to represent the conidiospores production of Trichoderma harzianum because the R2 value denotes a good fitting of experimental results, and the obtained ANN model was used to find the parameters to produce the biggest amount of conidiospores per gram of dry mass.

Keywords: Trichoderma harzianum, modeling, optimization, artificial neural network

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17903 Advancements in Predicting Diabetes Biomarkers: A Machine Learning Epigenetic Approach

Authors: James Ladzekpo

Abstract:

Background: The urgent need to identify new pharmacological targets for diabetes treatment and prevention has been amplified by the disease's extensive impact on individuals and healthcare systems. A deeper insight into the biological underpinnings of diabetes is crucial for the creation of therapeutic strategies aimed at these biological processes. Current predictive models based on genetic variations fall short of accurately forecasting diabetes. Objectives: Our study aims to pinpoint key epigenetic factors that predispose individuals to diabetes. These factors will inform the development of an advanced predictive model that estimates diabetes risk from genetic profiles, utilizing state-of-the-art statistical and data mining methods. Methodology: We have implemented a recursive feature elimination with cross-validation using the support vector machine (SVM) approach for refined feature selection. Building on this, we developed six machine learning models, including logistic regression, k-Nearest Neighbors (k-NN), Naive Bayes, Random Forest, Gradient Boosting, and Multilayer Perceptron Neural Network, to evaluate their performance. Findings: The Gradient Boosting Classifier excelled, achieving a median recall of 92.17% and outstanding metrics such as area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC) with a median of 68%, alongside median accuracy and precision scores of 76%. Through our machine learning analysis, we identified 31 genes significantly associated with diabetes traits, highlighting their potential as biomarkers and targets for diabetes management strategies. Conclusion: Particularly noteworthy were the Gradient Boosting Classifier and Multilayer Perceptron Neural Network, which demonstrated potential in diabetes outcome prediction. We recommend future investigations to incorporate larger cohorts and a wider array of predictive variables to enhance the models' predictive capabilities.

Keywords: diabetes, machine learning, prediction, biomarkers

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