Search results for: Monte Carlo simulated

Authors: Mejía M. Paula, Ramírez L. Leonardo, Puerta A. Gabriel

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In telemedicine, the image repository service is important to increase the accuracy of diagnostic support of medical personnel. This study makes comparison between two routing algorithms regarding the quality of service (QoS), to be able to analyze the optimal performance at the time of loading and/or downloading of medical images. This study focused on comparing the performance of Tabu Search with other heuristic and metaheuristic algorithms that improve QoS in telemedicine services in Colombia. For this, Tabu Search and Simulated Annealing heuristic algorithms are chosen for their high usability in this type of applications; the QoS is measured taking into account the following metrics: Delay, Throughput, Jitter and Latency. In addition, routing tests were carried out on ten images in digital image and communication in medicine (DICOM) format of 40 MB. These tests were carried out for ten minutes with different traffic conditions, reaching a total of 25 tests, from a server of Universidad Militar Nueva Granada (UMNG) in Bogotá-Colombia to a remote user in Universidad de Santiago de Chile (USACH) - Chile. The results show that Tabu search presents a better QoS performance compared to Simulated Annealing, managing to optimize the routing of medical images, a basic requirement to offer diagnostic images services in telemedicine.

Keywords: medical image, QoS, simulated annealing, Tabu search, telemedicine

Procedia PDF Downloads 219

Authors: Khanh To Duc, Monica Chiogna, Gianfranco Adimari

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With three diagnostic categories, assessment of the performance of diagnostic tests is achieved by the analysis of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) surface, which generalizes the ROC curve for binary diagnostic outcomes. The volume under the ROC surface (VUS) is a summary index usually employed for measuring the overall diagnostic accuracy. When the true disease status can be exactly assessed by means of a gold standard (GS) test, unbiased nonparametric estimators of the ROC surface and VUS are easily obtained. In practice, unfortunately, disease status verification via the GS test could be unavailable for all study subjects, due to the expensiveness or invasiveness of the GS test. Thus, often only a subset of patients undergoes disease verification. Statistical evaluations of diagnostic accuracy based only on data from subjects with verified disease status are typically biased. This bias is known as verification bias. Here, we consider the problem of correcting for verification bias when continuous diagnostic tests for three-class disease status are considered. We assume that selection for disease verification does not depend on disease status, given test results and other observed covariates, i.e., we assume that the true disease status, when missing, is missing at random. Under this assumption, we discuss several solutions for ROC surface analysis based on imputation and re-weighting methods. In particular, verification bias-corrected estimators of the ROC surface and of VUS are proposed, namely, full imputation, mean score imputation, inverse probability weighting and semiparametric efficient estimators. Consistency and asymptotic normality of the proposed estimators are established, and their finite sample behavior is investigated by means of Monte Carlo simulation studies. Two illustrations using real datasets are also given.

Keywords: imputation, missing at random, inverse probability weighting, ROC surface analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 416

Authors: Halil Ibrahim Demir, Abdullah Hulusi Kokcam, Fuat Simsir, Özer Uygun

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Traditionally, three important manufacturing functions which are process planning, scheduling and due-date assignment are performed sequentially and separately. Although there are numerous works on the integration of process planning and scheduling and plenty of works focusing on scheduling with due date assignment, there are only a few works on integrated process planning, scheduling and due-date assignment. Although due-dates are determined without taking into account of weights of the customers in the literature, here weighted due-date assignment is employed to get better performance. Jobs are scheduled according to weighted earliest due date dispatching rule and due dates are determined according to some popular due date assignment methods by taking into account of the weights of each job. Simulated Annealing, Evolutionary Strategies, Random Search, hybrid of Random Search and Simulated Annealing, and hybrid of Random Search and Evolutionary Strategies, are applied as solution techniques. Three important manufacturing functions are integrated step-by-step and higher integration levels are found better. Search meta-heuristics are found to be very useful while improving performance measure.

Keywords: process planning, weighted scheduling, weighted due-date assignment, simulated annealing, evolutionary strategies, hybrid searches

Procedia PDF Downloads 462

Authors: M. Taouzari, A. Sardi, J. El Aoufi, Ahmed Mouhsen

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The purpose of this work is to design a reader antenna fed by 90° hybrid coupler that would ensure a tag which is detected regardless of its orientation for the radio frequency identification system covering the UHF and ISM bands frequencies. Based on this idea, the proposed work is dividing in two parts, first part is about study and design hybrid coupler using the resonators planar called T-and Pi networks operating in commercial bands. In the second part, the proposed antenna fed by the hybrid coupler is designed on FR4 substrate with dielectric permittivity 4.4, thickness dielectric 1.6mm and loss tangent 0.025. The T-slot is inserted in patch of the proposed antenna fed by the hybrid coupler is first designed, optimized and simulated using electromagnetic simulator ADS and then simulated in a full wave simulation software CST Microwave Studio. The simulated antenna by the both softwares achieves the expected performances in terms of matching, pattern radiation, phase shifting, gain and size.

Keywords: dual band antenna, RFID, hybrid coupler, polarization, radiation pattern

Procedia PDF Downloads 131

Authors: Sea Hoon Lim

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A superfluid is a fluid of bosons that flows without resistance. In order to be a superfluid, a substance’s particles must behave like bosons, yet remain mobile enough to be considered a superfluid. Bosons are low-temperature particles that can be in all energy states at the same time. If bosons were to be cooled down, then the particles will all try to be on the lowest energy state, which is called the Bose Einstein condensation. The temperature when bosons start to matter is when the temperature has reached its critical temperature. For example, when Helium reaches its critical temperature of 2.17K, the liquid density drops and becomes a superfluid with zero viscosity. However, most materials will solidify -and thus not remain fluids- at temperatures well above the temperature at which they would otherwise become a superfluid. Only a few substances currently known to man are capable of at once remaining a fluid and manifesting boson statistics. The most well-known of these is helium and its isotopes. Because hydrogen is lighter than helium, and thus expected to manifest Bose statistics at higher temperatures than helium, one might expect hydrogen to also be a superfluid. As of today, however, no one has yet been able to produce a bulk, hydrogen superfluid. The reason why hydrogen did not form a superfluid in the past is its intermolecular interactions. As a result, hydrogen molecules are much more likely to crystallize than their helium counterparts. The key to creating a hydrogen superfluid is therefore finding a way to reduce the effect of the interactions among hydrogen molecules, postponing the solidification to lower temperature. In this work, we attempt via computer simulation to produce bulk superfluid hydrogen through binary mixing. Binary mixture is a technique of mixing two pure substances in order to avoid crystallization and enhance super fluidity. Our mixture here is KALJ H2. We then sample the partition function using this Path Integral Monte Carlo (PIMC), which is well-suited for the equilibrium properties of low-temperature bosons and captures not only the statistics but also the dynamics of Hydrogen. Via this sampling, we will then produce a time evolution of the substance and see if it exhibits superfluid properties.

Keywords: superfluidity, hydrogen, binary mixture, physics

Procedia PDF Downloads 316

Authors: Zekang Lan, Yan Xu, Yingkun Huang, Dian Huang, Shengzhong Feng

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Jobs on high-performance computing (HPC) clusters can suffer significant performance degradation due to inter-job network interference. Topology-aware job allocation problem (TJAP) is such a problem that decides how to dedicate nodes to specific applications to mitigate inter-job network interference. In this paper, we study the window-based TJAP on a fat-tree network aiming at minimizing the cost of communication hop, a defined inter-job interference metric. The window-based approach for scheduling repeats periodically, taking the jobs in the queue and solving an assignment problem that maps jobs to the available nodes. Two special allocation strategies are considered, i.e., static continuity assignment strategy (SCAS) and dynamic continuity assignment strategy (DCAS). For the SCAS, a 0-1 integer programming is developed. For the DCAS, an approach called neural simulated algorithm (NSA), which is an extension to simulated algorithm (SA) that learns a repair operator and employs them in a guided heuristic search, is proposed. The efficacy of NSA is demonstrated with a computational study against SA and SCIP. The results of numerical experiments indicate that both the model and algorithm proposed in this paper are effective.

Keywords: high-performance computing, job allocation, neural simulated annealing, topology-aware

Procedia PDF Downloads 116

Authors: Barby Jennette A. Florano

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Dietary intake has been associated with the health and wellbeing of adults, and lifestyle related diseases. The aim of this study was to investigate whether nutrition knowledge, food label use, and food preference are associated with the dietary intake in a sample of San Jose Del Monte City, Bulacan (SJDM) adults. A sample of 148 adults, with a mean age of 20 years, completed a validated questionnaire related to their demographic, dietary intake, nutrition knowledge, food label use and food preference. Data were analyzed using Pearson correlation and there was no association between dietary intake and nutrition knowledge. However, there were positive relationships between dietary intake and food label use (r=0.1276, p<0.10), and dietary intake and food preference (r=0.1070, p<0.10). SJDM adults who use food label and have extensive food preference had better diet quality. This finding magnifies the role of nutrition education as a potential tool in health campaigns to promote healthy eating patterns and reading food labels among students and adults. Results of this study can give information for the design of future nutrition education intervention studies to assess the efficacy of nutrition knowledge and food label use among a similar sample population.

Keywords: dietary intake, nutrition knowledge, food preference, food label use

Procedia PDF Downloads 91

Authors: Jinsiang Shaw, Sheng-Xiang Xu

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This paper presents the development of an autonomous automated guided vehicle (AGV) with a robot arm attached on top of it within the framework of robot operation system (ROS). ROS can provide libraries and tools, including hardware abstraction, device drivers, libraries, visualizers, message-passing, package management, etc. For this reason, this AGV can provide automatic navigation and parts transportation and pick-and-place task using robot arm for typical industrial production line use. More specifically, this AGV will be controlled by an on-board host computer running ROS software. Command signals for vehicle and robot arm control and measurement signals from various sensors are transferred to respective microcontrollers. Users can operate the AGV remotely through the TCP / IP protocol and perform SLAM (Simultaneous Localization and Mapping). An RGBD camera and LIDAR sensors are installed on the AGV, using these data to perceive the environment. For SLAM, Gmapping is used to construct the environment map by Rao-Blackwellized particle filter; and AMCL method (Adaptive Monte Carlo localization) is employed for mobile robot localization. In addition, current AGV position and orientation can be visualized by ROS toolkit. As for robot navigation and obstacle avoidance, A* for global path planning and dynamic window approach for local planning are implemented. The developed ROS AGV with a robot arm on it has been experimented in the university factory. A 2-D and 3-D map of the factory were successfully constructed by the SLAM method. Base on this map, robot navigation through the factory with and without dynamic obstacles are shown to perform well. Finally, pick-and-place of parts using robot arm and ensuing delivery in the factory by the mobile robot are also accomplished.

Keywords: automated guided vehicle, navigation, robot operation system, Simultaneous Localization and Mapping

Procedia PDF Downloads 149

Authors: Abdulkadir Magaji

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This study analyzes and compares the actual measured and simulated performance of a 3.2 kwP grid-connected photovoltaic system. The system is located at the Outdoor Facility of Government Day secondary School Katsina State, which lies approximately between coordinate of 12°15′N 7°30′E. The system consists of 14 Mono crystalline silicon modules connected in two strings of 7 series-connected modules, each facing north at a fixed tilt of 340. The data presented in this study were measured in the year 2015, where the system supplied a total of 4628 kWh to the local electric utility grid. The performance of the system was simulated using PVsyst software using measured and Meteonorm derived climate data sets (solar radiation, ambient temperature and wind speed). The comparison between measured and simulated energy yield are discussed. Although, both simulation results were similar, better comparison between measured and predicted monthly energy yield is observed with simulation performed using measured weather data at the site. The measured performance ratio in the present study shows 58.4% is higher than those reported elsewhere as compared in the study.

Keywords: performance, evaluation, grid connection, photovoltaic system

Procedia PDF Downloads 181

Authors: Agnieszka Dudzik

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The problem of correlation between random variables in the structural reliability analysis has been extensively discussed in literature on the subject. The cases taken under consideration were usually related to correlation between random variables from one side of ultimate limit state: correlation between particular loads applied on structure or correlation between resistance of particular members of a structure as a system. It has been proved that positive correlation between these random variables reduces the reliability of structure and increases the probability of failure. In the paper, the problem of correlation between random variables from both side of the limit state equation will be taken under consideration. The simplest case where these random variables are of the normal distributions will be concerned. The case when a degree of that correlation is described by the covariance or the coefficient of correlation will be used. Special attention will be paid on questions: how much that correlation changes the reliability level and can it be ignored. In reliability analysis will be used well-known methods for assessment of the failure probability: based on the Hasofer-Lind reliability index and Monte Carlo method adapted to the problem of correlation. The main purpose of this work will be a presentation how correlation of random variables influence on reliability index of steel bar structures. Structural design parameters will be defined as deterministic values and random variables. The latter will be correlated. The criterion of structural failure will be expressed by limit functions related to the ultimate and serviceability limit state. In the description of random variables will be used only for the normal distribution. Sensitivity of reliability index to the random variables will be defined. If the reliability index sensitivity due to the random variable X will be low when compared with other variables, it can be stated that the impact of this variable on failure probability is small. Therefore, in successive computations, it can be treated as a deterministic parameter. Sensitivity analysis leads to simplify the description of the mathematical model, determine the new limit functions and values of the Hasofer-Lind reliability index. In the examples, the NUMPRESS software will be used in the reliability analysis.

Keywords: correlation of random variables, reliability index, sensitivity of reliability index, steel structure

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Authors: Meriem Boukais, B. Dennai, A. Ould- Abbas

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The efficiency of SiGe solar cells might be improved by a wide-band-gap window layer. In this work we were simulated using the one dimensional simulation program called analysis of microelectronic and photonic structures (AMPS-1D). In the modeling, the thickness of silicon window was varied from 80 to 150 nm. The rest of layer’s thicknesses were kept constant, by varying thickness of window layer the simulated device performance was demonstrate in the form of current-voltage (I-V) characteristics and quantum efficiency (QE).

Keywords: modeling, SiGe, AMPS-1D, quantum efficiency, conversion, efficiency

Procedia PDF Downloads 721

Authors: Imran Badshah

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Pedestrian service time reflects the performance of the facility, and it’s a key parameter to analyze the capability of facilities provided to serve pedestrians. The level of service of pedestrians (LOS) mainly depends on pedestrian time and safety. The pedestrian time utilized by taking a service is mainly influenced by the number of available services and the time utilized by each pedestrian in receiving a service; that is called a delay time. In this paper, we analyzed the simulated pedestrian service time with different delay times. A simulation is performed in AnyLogic by developing a model that reflects the real scenario of pedestrian services such as ticket machine gates at rail stations, airports, shopping malls, and cinema halls. The simulated pedestrian time is determined for various delay values. The simulated result shows how pedestrian time changes with the delay pattern. The histogram and time plot graph of a model gives the mean, maximum and minimum values of the pedestrian time. This study helps us to check the behavior of pedestrian time at various services such as subway stations, airports, shopping malls, and cinema halls.

Keywords: agent-based simulation, anylogic model, pedestrian behavior, time delay

Procedia PDF Downloads 210

Authors: Boukais Meriem, B. Dennai, A. Ould-Abbas

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The efficiency of SiGe solar cells might be improved by a wide-band-gap window layer. In this work we were simulated using the one dimensional simulation program called analysis of microelectronic and photonic structures (AMPS-1D). In the simulation, the thickness of silicon window was varied from 80 to 150 nm. The rest of layer’s thicknesses were kept constant, by varying thickness of window layer the simulated device performance was demonstrate in the form of current-voltage (I-V) characteristics and quantum efficiency (QE).

Keywords: SiGe, AMPS-1D, simulation, conversion, efficiency, quantum efficiency

Procedia PDF Downloads 805

Authors: Niroshan K. Walgama Wellalage, Tieling Zhang, Richard Dwight

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State-based Markov deterioration models (SMDM) sometimes fail to find accurate transition probability matrix (TPM) values, and hence lead to invalid future condition prediction or incorrect average deterioration rates mainly due to drawbacks of existing nonlinear optimization-based algorithms and/or subjective function types used for regression analysis. Furthermore, a set of separate functions for each condition state with age cannot be directly derived by using Markov model for a given bridge element group, which however is of interest to industrial partners. This paper presents a new approach for generating Homogeneous SMDM model output, namely, the Modified Weibull approach, which consists of a set of appropriate functions to describe the percentage condition prediction of bridge elements in each state. These functions are combined with Bayesian approach and Metropolis Hasting Algorithm (MHA) based Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation technique for quantifying the uncertainty in model parameter estimates. In this study, factors contributing to rail bridge deterioration were identified. The inspection data for 1,000 Australian railway bridges over 15 years were reviewed and filtered accordingly based on the real operational experience. Network level deterioration model for a typical bridge element group was developed using the proposed Modified Weibull approach. The condition state predictions obtained from this method were validated using statistical hypothesis tests with a test data set. Results show that the proposed model is able to not only predict the conditions in network-level accurately but also capture the model uncertainties with given confidence interval.

Keywords: bridge deterioration modelling, modified weibull approach, MCMC, metropolis-hasting algorithm, bayesian approach, Markov deterioration models

Procedia PDF Downloads 727

Authors: Michele Catalano, Jacopo Di Domenico, Luca Riccetti, Andrea Teglio

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We develop a data-driven agent based model (ABM) for the Italian economy. We calibrate the model for the initial condition and parameters. As a preliminary step, we replicate the Monte-Carlo simulation for the Austrian economy. Then, we evaluate the dynamic properties of the model: the long-run equilibrium and the allocative efficiency in terms of disequilibrium patterns arising in the search and matching process for final goods, capital, intermediate goods, and credit markets. In this perspective, we use a randomized initial condition approach. We perform a robustness analysis perturbing the system for different parameter setups. We explore the empirical properties of the model using a rolling window forecast exercise from 2010 to 2022 to observe the model’s forecasting ability in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. We perform an analysis of the properties of the model with a different number of agents, that is, with different scales of the model compared to the real economy. The model generally displays transient dynamics that properly fit macroeconomic data regarding forecasting ability. We stress the model with a large set of shocks, namely interest policy, fiscal policy, and exogenous factors, such as external foreign demand for export. In this way, we can explore the most exposed sectors of the economy. Finally, we modify the technology mix of the various sectors and, consequently, the underlying input-output sectoral interdependence to stress the economy and observe the long-run projections. In this way, we can include in the model the generation of endogenous crisis due to the implied structural change, technological unemployment, and potential lack of aggregate demand creating the condition for cyclical endogenous crises reproduced in this artificial economy.

Keywords: agent-based models, behavioral macro, macroeconomic forecasting, micro data

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Authors: Venkat S. Somayajula

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Ground surface temperature history prediction model plays a vital role in determining standards for international nuclear waste management. International standards for borehole based nuclear waste disposal require paleoclimate cycle predictions on scale of a million forward years for the place of waste disposal. This research focuses on developing a paleoclimate cycle prediction model using Bayesian long-short term memory (LSTM) neural architecture operated on accumulated borehole temperature history data. Bayesian models have been previously used for paleoclimate cycle prediction based on Monte-Carlo weight method, but due to limitations pertaining model coupling with certain other prediction networks, Bayesian models in past couldn’t accommodate prediction cycle’s over 1000 years. LSTM has provided frontier to couple developed models with other prediction networks with ease. Paleoclimate cycle developed using this process will be trained on existing borehole data and then will be coupled to surface temperature history prediction networks which give endpoints for backpropagation of LSTM network and optimize the cycle of prediction for larger prediction time scales. Trained LSTM will be tested on past data for validation and then propagated for forward prediction of temperatures at borehole locations. This research will be beneficial for study pertaining to nuclear waste management, anthropological cycle predictions and geophysical features

Keywords: Bayesian long-short term memory neural network, borehole temperature, ground surface temperature history, paleoclimate cycle

Procedia PDF Downloads 128

Authors: Meng H. Lean, Wei-Ping L. Chu

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The effects of ferroelectric nanofiller size, shape, loading, and polarization, on bipolar charge injection, transport, and recombination through amorphous and semicrystalline polymers are studied. A 3D particle-in-cell model extends the classical electrical double layer representation to treat ferroelectric nanoparticles. Metal-polymer charge injection assumes Schottky emission and Fowler-Nordheim tunneling, migration through field-dependent Poole-Frenkel mobility, and recombination with Monte Carlo selection based on collision probability. A boundary integral equation method is used for solution of the Poisson equation coupled with a second-order predictor-corrector scheme for robust time integration of the equations of motion. The stability criterion of the explicit algorithm conforms to the Courant-Friedrichs-Levy limit. Trajectories for charge that make it through the film are curvilinear paths that meander through the interspaces. Results indicate that charge transport behavior depends on nanoparticle polarization with anti-parallel orientation showing the highest leakage conduction and lowest level of charge trapping in the interaction zone. Simulation prediction of a size range of 80 to 100 nm to minimize attachment and maximize conduction is validated by theory. Attached charge fractions go from 2.2% to 97% as nanofiller size is decreased from 150 nm to 60 nm. Computed conductivity of 0.4 x 1014 S/cm is in agreement with published data for plastics. Charge attachment is increased with spheroids due to the increase in surface area, and especially so for oblate spheroids showing the influence of larger cross-sections. Charge attachment to nanofillers and nanocrystallites increase with vol.% loading or degree of crystallinity, and saturate at about 40 vol.%.

Keywords: nanocomposites, nanofillers, electrical double layer, bipolar charge transport

Procedia PDF Downloads 354

Authors: Francisco Miroslav Ulloa-Stanojlovic, Gina Polo, Ricardo Augusto Dias

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In Brazil, there is a high incidence of rabies in herbivores of economic interest (HEI) transmitted by the common vampire bat Desmodus rotundus, the presence of human rabies cases and the huge economic losses in the world's largest cattle industry, it is important to assist the National Program for Control of Rabies in herbivores in Brazil, that aims to reduce the incidence of rabies in HEI populations, mainly through epidemiological surveillance, vaccination of herbivores and control of vampire-bat roosts. Material and Methods: A spatiotemporal retrospective Kulldorff's spatial scan statistic based on a Poisson model and Monte Carlo simulation and an Anselin's Local Moran's I statistic were used to uncover spatial clustering of HEI rabies from 2000 – 2014. Results: Were identify three important clusters with significant year-to-year variation (Figure 1). In 2000, was identified one area of clustering in the North region, specifically in the State of Tocantins. Between the year 2000 and 2004, a cluster centered in the Midwest and Southeast region including the States of Goiás, Minas Gerais, Rio de Janeiro, Espirito Santo and São Paulo was prominent. And finally between 2000 and 2005 was found an important cluster in the North, Midwest and South region. Conclusions: The HEI rabies is endemic in the country, in addition, appears to be significant differences among the States according to their surveillance services, that may be difficulting the control of the disease, also other factors could be influencing in the maintenance of this problem like the lack of information of vampire-bat roosts identification, and limited human resources for realization of field monitoring. A review of the program control by the authorities it’s necessary.

Keywords: Brazil, Desmodus rotundus, herbivores, rabies

Procedia PDF Downloads 417

Authors: Ibrahim Mostafa El-Mongy, Abdelmegid Allam

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In this article analysis and investigation of the effect of loading a horn antenna with frequency selective surface (FSS) of crossed dipoles of finite size is presented. It is fabricated on Rogers RO4350 (lossy) of relative permittivity 3.33, thickness 1.524 mm and loss tangent 0.004. Basically it is applied for filtering and minimizing the interference and noise in the desired band. The filtration is carried out using a finite FSS of crossed dipoles of overall dimensions 98x58 mm2. The filtration is shown by limiting the transmission bandwidth from 4 GHz (8–12 GHz) to 0.25 GHz (10.75–11 GHz). It is simulated using CST MWS and measured using network analyzer. There is a good agreement between the simulated and measured results.

Keywords: antenna, filtenna, frequency selective surface (FSS), horn

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Authors: Collen Kawiya

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In an effort of reducing post-harvest losses and improving the supply of quality fish products in Malawi, the fish solar tent dryers have been designed in the southern part of Lake Malawi for processing small fish species under the project of Cultivate Africa’s Future (CultiAF). This study was done to promote the adoption of the fish solar tent dryers by the many small scale fish processors in Malawi through the assessment of the economic viability of these dryers. With the use of the project’s baseline survey data, a business model for a constructed ‘ready for use’ solar tent dryer was developed where investment appraisal techniques were calculated in addition with the sensitivity analysis. The study also conducted a risk analysis through the use of the Monte Carlo simulation technique and a probabilistic net present value was found. The investment appraisal results showed that the net present value was US$8,756.85, the internal rate of return was 62% higher than the 16.32% cost of capital and the payback period was 1.64 years. The sensitivity analysis results showed that only two input variables influenced the fish solar dryer investment’s net present value. These are the dried fish selling prices that were correlating positively with the net present value and the fresh fish buying prices that were negatively correlating with the net present value. Risk analysis results showed that the chances that fish processors will make a loss from this type of investment are 17.56%. It was also observed that there exist only a 0.20 probability of experiencing a negative net present value from this type of investment. Lastly, the study found that the net present value of the fish solar tent dryer’s investment is still robust in spite of any changes in the levels of investors risk preferences. With these results, it is concluded that the fish solar tent dryers in Malawi are an economically viable investment because they are able to improve the returns in the fish processing activity. As such, fish processors need to adopt them by investing their money to construct and use them.

Keywords: investment appraisal, risk analysis, sensitivity analysis, solar tent drying

Procedia PDF Downloads 278

Authors: Sanjal Gavande, Thomas Mazzuchi, Shahram Sarkani

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In a complex aerospace operational environment, identifying failures in a procedure involving multiple human-machine interactions are difficult. These failures could lead to accidents causing loss of hardware or human life. The likelihood of failure further increases if operational procedures are tested for a novel system with multiple human-machine interfaces and with no prior performance data. The existing approach in the literature of reviewing complex operational tasks in a flowchart or tabular form doesn’t provide any insight into potential system failures due to human decision-making ability. To address these challenges, this research explores an agent-based simulation approach for reliability assessment and fault detection in complex human-machine systems while utilizing a human decision-making model. The simulation will predict the emergent behavior of the system due to the interaction between humans and their decision-making capability with the varying states of the machine and vice-versa. Overall system reliability will be evaluated based on a defined set of success-criteria conditions and the number of recorded failures over an assigned limit of Monte Carlo runs. The study also aims at identifying high-likelihood failure locations for the system. The research concludes that system reliability and failures can be effectively calculated when individual human and machine agent states are clearly defined. This research is limited to the operations phase of a system lifecycle process in an aerospace environment only. Further exploration of the proposed agent-based and human decision-making model will be required to allow for a greater understanding of this topic for application outside of the operations domain.

Keywords: agent-based model, complex human-machine system, human decision-making model, system reliability assessment

Procedia PDF Downloads 168

Authors: Sandeep, A. Joshi, Kamal, Piu Dhibar, Parveen Kumar

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In the present work strong ground motion has been simulated using a modified semi-empirical technique (MSET), with frequency dependent radiation pattern model. Joshi et al. (2014) have modified the semi-empirical technique to incorporate the modeling of strong motion generation areas (SMGAs). A frequency dependent radiation pattern model is applied to simulate high frequency ground motion more precisely. Identified SMGAs (Kurahashi and Irikura 2012) of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake (Mw 9.0) were modeled using this modified technique. Records are simulated for both frequency dependent and constant radiation pattern function. Simulated records for both cases are compared with observed records in terms of peak ground acceleration and pseudo acceleration response spectra at different stations. Comparison of simulated and observed records in terms of root mean square error suggests that the method is capable of simulating record which matches in a wide frequency range for this earthquake and bears realistic appearance in terms of shape and strong motion parameters. The results confirm the efficacy and suitability of rupture model defined by five SMGAs for the developed modified technique.

Keywords: strong ground motion, semi-empirical, strong motion generation area, frequency dependent radiation pattern, 2011 Tohoku Earthquake

Procedia PDF Downloads 537

Authors: Anne Heirman, Vincent van der Noort, Rob van Son, Marije Petersen, Lisette van der Molen, Gyorgy Halmos, Richard Dirven, Michiel van den Brekel

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Objective: Voice prosthesis leakage significantly impacts laryngectomies patients' quality of life, causing insecurity and frequent unplanned hospital visits and costs. In this study, the concept of prophylactic voice prosthesis replacement was explored to prevent leakages. Study Design: A retrospective cohort study. Setting: Tertiary hospital. Methods: Device lifetimes and voice prosthesis replacements of a retrospective cohort, including all patients with laryngectomies between 2000 and 2012 in the Netherlands Cancer Institute, were used to calculate the number of needed voice prostheses per patient per year when preventing 70% of the leakages by prophylactic replacement. Various strategies for the timing of prophylactic replacement were considered: Adaptive strategies based on the individual patient’s history of replacement and fixed strategies based on the results of patients with similar voice prosthesis or treatment characteristics. Results: Patients used a median of 3.4 voice prostheses per year (range 0.1-48.1). We found a high inter-and intrapatient variability in device lifetime. When applying prophylactic replacement, this would become a median of 9.4 voice prostheses per year, which means replacement every 38 days, implying more than six additional voice prostheses per patient per year. The individual adaptive model showed that preventing 70% of the leakages was impossible for most patients, and only a median of 25% can be prevented. Monte-Carlo simulations showed that prophylactic replacement is not feasible due to the high Coefficient of Variation (Standard Deviation/Mean) in device lifetime. Conclusion: Based on our simulations, prophylactic replacement of voice prostheses is not feasible due to high inter-and intrapatient variation in device lifetime.

Keywords: voice prosthesis, voice rehabilitation, total laryngectomy, prosthetic leakage, device lifetime

Procedia PDF Downloads 129

Authors: Nikolaos Papadimas, Joanna Bennett, Amir Sakhaei, Timothy Dodwell

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Composite modeling of consolidation processes is playing an important role in the process and part design by indicating the formation of possible unwanted prior to expensive experimental iterative trial and development programs. Composite materials in their uncured state display complex constitutive behavior, which has received much academic interest, and this with different models proposed. Errors from modeling and statistical which arise from this fitting will propagate through any simulation in which the material model is used. A general hyperelastic polynomial representation was proposed, which can be readily implemented in various nonlinear finite element packages. In our case, FEniCS was chosen. The coefficients are assumed uncertain, and therefore the distribution of parameters learned using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. In engineering, the approach often followed is to select a single set of model parameters, which on average, best fits a set of experiments. There are good statistical reasons why this is not a rigorous approach to take. To overcome these challenges, A hierarchical Bayesian framework was proposed in which population distribution of model parameters is inferred from an ensemble of experiments tests. The resulting sampled distribution of hyperparameters is approximated using Maximum Entropy methods so that the distribution of samples can be readily sampled when embedded within a stochastic finite element simulation. The methodology is validated and demonstrated on a set of consolidation experiments of AS4/8852 with various stacking sequences. The resulting distributions are then applied to stochastic finite element simulations of the consolidation of curved parts, leading to a distribution of possible model outputs. With this, the paper, as far as the authors are aware, represents the first stochastic finite element implementation in composite process modelling.

Keywords: data-driven , material consolidation, stochastic finite elements, surrogate models

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Authors: Shu-Yu Chung, Ying-Fang Wang, Shih-Min Wang

Abstract:

To conduct long-term exposure assessments are important for workers exposed to chemicals with chronic effects. However, it usually encounters with several constrains, including cost, workers' willingness, and interference to work practice, etc., leading to inadequate long-term exposure data in the real world. In this study, an integrated approach was developed for conducting long-term exposure assessment for welding workers in a shipbuilding factory. A laboratory study was conducted to yield the fume generation rates under various operating conditions. The results and the measured environmental conditions were applied to the near field/far field (NF/FF) model for predicting long term fume exposures via the Monte Carlo simulation. Then, the predicted long-term concentrations were used to determine the prior distribution in Bayesian decision analysis (BDA). Finally, the resultant posterior distributions were used to assess the long-term exposure and serve as basis for initiating control strategies for shipbuilding workers. Results show that the NF/FF model was a suitable for predicting the exposures of metal contents containing in welding fume. The resultant posterior distributions could effectively assess the long-term exposures of shipbuilding welders. Welders' long-term Fe, Mn and Pb exposures were found with high possibilities to exceed the action level indicating preventive measures should be taken for reducing welders' exposures immediately. Though the resultant posterior distribution can only be regarded as the best solution based on the currently available predicting and monitoring data, the proposed integrated approach can be regarded as a possible solution for conducting long term exposure assessment in the field.

Keywords: Bayesian decision analysis, exposure assessment, near field and far field model, shipbuilding industry, welding fume

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Authors: Hossein Bazmara, Kaamran Raahemifar, Mostafa Sefidgar, Madjid Soltani

Abstract:

Angiogenesis is formation of new blood vessels from existing vessels. Due to flow of blood in vessels, during angiogenesis, blood flow plays an important role in regulating the angiogenesis process. Multiple mathematical models of angiogenesis have been proposed to simulate the formation of the complicated network of capillaries around a tumor. In this work, a multi-scale model of angiogenesis is developed to show the effect of blood flow on capillaries and network formation. This model spans multiple temporal and spatial scales, i.e. intracellular (molecular), cellular, and extracellular (tissue) scales. In intracellular or molecular scale, the signaling cascade of endothelial cells is obtained. Two main stages in development of a vessel are considered. In the first stage, single sprouts are extended toward the tumor. In this stage, the main regulator of endothelial cells behavior is the signals from extracellular matrix. After anastomosis and formation of closed loops, blood flow starts in the capillaries. In this stage, blood flow induced signals regulate endothelial cells behaviors. In cellular scale, growth and migration of endothelial cells is modeled with a discrete lattice Monte Carlo method called cellular Pott's model (CPM). In extracellular (tissue) scale, diffusion of tumor angiogenic factors in the extracellular matrix, formation of closed loops (anastomosis), and shear stress induced by blood flow is considered. The model is able to simulate the formation of a closed loop and its extension. The results are validated against experimental data. The results show that, without blood flow, the capillaries are not able to maintain their integrity.

Keywords: angiogenesis, endothelial cells, multi-scale model, cellular Pott's model, signaling cascade

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Authors: U. Yavas, M. Gokasan

Abstract:

Control of diesel engine’s air path has drawn a lot of attention due to its multi input-multi output, closed coupled, non-linear relation. Today, precise control of amount of air to be combusted is a must in order to meet with tight emission limits and performance targets. In this study, passenger car size diesel engine is modeled by AVL Boost RT, and then simulated with standard, industry level PID controllers. Finally, linear model predictive control is designed and simulated. This study shows the importance of modeling and control of diesel engines with flexible algorithm development in computer based systems.

Keywords: predictive control, engine control, engine modeling, PID control, feedforward compensation

Procedia PDF Downloads 636

Authors: Radha Tomar, Satish K. Jain, Manish Panchal, P. S. Rathore

Abstract:

In the presented work, inset fed microstrip patch antenna (IFMPA) based two port MIMO Antenna system has been proposed, which is suitable for wireless local area network (WLAN) applications. IFMPA has been designed, optimized for 2.4 GHz and applied for MIMO formation. The optimized parameters of the proposed IFMPA have been used for fabrication of antenna and two port MIMO in a laboratory. Fabrication of the designed MIMO antenna has been done and tested experimentally for performance parameters like Envelope Correlation Coefficient (ECC), Mean Effective Gain (MEG), Directive Gain (DG), Channel Capacity Loss (CCL), Multiplexing Efficiency (ME) etc and results are compared with simulated parameters extracted with simulated S parameters to validate the results. The simulated and experimentally measured plots and numerical values of these MIMO performance parameters resembles very much with each other. This shows the success of MIMO antenna design methodology.

Keywords: multiple-input and multiple-output, wireless local area network, vector network analyzer, envelope correlation coefficient

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Authors: Gaurav Upadhyay, Nand Kishore, Prashant Ranjan, V. S. Tripathi, Shivesh Tripathi

Abstract:

A frequency reconfigurable multiband antenna for intelligent transportation system (ITS) applications is proposed in this paper. A PIN-diode is used for reconfigurability. Centre frequencies are 1.38, 1.98, 2.89, 3.86, and 4.34 GHz in “ON” state of Diode and 1.56, 2.16, 2.88, 3.91 and 4.45 GHz in “OFF” state. Achieved maximum bandwidth is 18%. The maximum gain of the proposed antenna is 2.7 dBi in “ON” state and 3.95 dBi in “OFF” state of the diode. The antenna is simulated, fabricated, and tested in the lab. Measured and simulated results are in good confirmation.

Keywords: ITS, multiband antenna, PIN-diode, reconfigurable

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Authors: Shaikah Alsubayae, Gianluigi Casse, Carlos Chavez, Jon Taylor, Alan Taylor, Mohammad Alsulimane

Abstract:

Ensuring accurate radiotherapy with carbon therapy requires precise monitoring of radiation dose distribution within the patient's body. This monitoring is essential for targeted tumor treatment, minimizing harm to healthy tissues, and improving treatment effectiveness while lowering side effects. In our investigation, we employed a methodological approach to monitor secondary proton doses in carbon therapy using Monte Carlo simulations. Initially, Geant4 simulations were utilized to extract the initial positions of secondary particles formed during interactions between carbon ions and water. These particles included protons, gamma rays, alpha particles, neutrons, and tritons. Subsequently, we studied the relationship between the carbon ion beam and these secondary particles. Interaction Vertex Imaging (IVI) is valuable for monitoring dose distribution in carbon therapy. It provides details about the positions and amounts of secondary particles, particularly protons. The IVI method depends on charged particles produced during ion fragmentation to gather information about the range by reconstructing particle trajectories back to their point of origin, referred to as the vertex. In our simulations regarding carbon ion therapy, we observed a strong correlation between some secondary particles and the range of carbon ions. However, challenges arose due to the target's unique elongated geometry, which hindered the straightforward transmission of forward-generated protons. Consequently, the limited protons that emerged mostly originated from points close to the target entrance. The trajectories of fragments (protons) were approximated as straight lines, and a beam back-projection algorithm, using recorded interaction positions in Si detectors, was developed to reconstruct vertices. The analysis revealed a correlation between the reconstructed and actual positions.

Keywords: radiotherapy, carbon therapy, monitoring of radiation dose, interaction vertex imaging

Procedia PDF Downloads 84