Search results for: emerging risks
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 3546

Search results for: emerging risks

6 A Comprehensive Study of Spread Models of Wildland Fires

Authors: Manavjit Singh Dhindsa, Ursula Das, Kshirasagar Naik, Marzia Zaman, Richard Purcell, Srinivas Sampalli, Abdul Mutakabbir, Chung-Horng Lung, Thambirajah Ravichandran

Abstract:

These days, wildland fires, also known as forest fires, are more prevalent than ever. Wildfires have major repercussions that affect ecosystems, communities, and the environment in several ways. Wildfires lead to habitat destruction and biodiversity loss, affecting ecosystems and causing soil erosion. They also contribute to poor air quality by releasing smoke and pollutants that pose health risks, especially for individuals with respiratory conditions. Wildfires can damage infrastructure, disrupt communities, and cause economic losses. The economic impact of firefighting efforts, combined with their direct effects on forestry and agriculture, causes significant financial difficulties for the areas impacted. This research explores different forest fire spread models and presents a comprehensive review of various techniques and methodologies used in the field. A forest fire spread model is a computational or mathematical representation that is used to simulate and predict the behavior of a forest fire. By applying scientific concepts and data from empirical studies, these models attempt to capture the intricate dynamics of how a fire spreads, taking into consideration a variety of factors like weather patterns, topography, fuel types, and environmental conditions. These models assist authorities in understanding and forecasting the potential trajectory and intensity of a wildfire. Emphasizing the need for a comprehensive understanding of wildfire dynamics, this research explores the approaches, assumptions, and findings derived from various models. By using a comparison approach, a critical analysis is provided by identifying patterns, strengths, and weaknesses among these models. The purpose of the survey is to further wildfire research and management techniques. Decision-makers, researchers, and practitioners can benefit from the useful insights that are provided by synthesizing established information. Fire spread models provide insights into potential fire behavior, facilitating authorities to make informed decisions about evacuation activities, allocating resources for fire-fighting efforts, and planning for preventive actions. Wildfire spread models are also useful in post-wildfire mitigation strategies as they help in assessing the fire's severity, determining high-risk regions for post-fire dangers, and forecasting soil erosion trends. The analysis highlights the importance of customized modeling approaches for various circumstances and promotes our understanding of the way forest fires spread. Some of the known models in this field are Rothermel’s wildland fuel model, FARSITE, WRF-SFIRE, FIRETEC, FlamMap, FSPro, cellular automata model, and others. The key characteristics that these models consider include weather (includes factors such as wind speed and direction), topography (includes factors like landscape elevation), and fuel availability (includes factors like types of vegetation) among other factors. The models discussed are physics-based, data-driven, or hybrid models, also utilizing ML techniques like attention-based neural networks to enhance the performance of the model. In order to lessen the destructive effects of forest fires, this initiative aims to promote the development of more precise prediction tools and effective management techniques. The survey expands its scope to address the practical needs of numerous stakeholders. Access to enhanced early warning systems enables decision-makers to take prompt action. Emergency responders benefit from improved resource allocation strategies, strengthening the efficacy of firefighting efforts.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, deep learning, forest fire management, fire risk assessment, fire simulation, machine learning, remote sensing, wildfire modeling

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5 Modern Day Second Generation Military Filipino Amerasians and Ghosts of the U.S. Military Prostitution System in West Central Luzon's 'AMO Amerasian Triangle'

Authors: P. C. Kutschera, Elena C. Tesoro, Mary Grace Talamera-Sandico, Jose Maria G. Pelayo III

Abstract:

Second generation military Filipino Amerasians comprise a formidable contemporary segment of the estimated 250,000-plus biracial Amerasians in the Philippines today. Overall, they are a stigmatized and socioeconomically marginalized diaspora, historically; they were abandoned or estranged by U.S. military personnel fathers assigned during the century-long Colonial, Post-World War II and Cold War Era of permanent military basing (1898-1992). Indeed, U.S. military personnel remain stationed in smaller numbers in the Philippines today. This inquiry is an outgrowth of two recent small sample studies. The first surfaced the impact of the U.S. military prostitution system on formation of the ‘Derivative Amerasian Family Construct’ on first generation Amerasians; a second, qualitative case study suggested the continued effect of the prostitution systems' destructive impetuous on second generation Amerasians. The intent of this current qualitative, multiple-case study was to actively seek out second generation sex industry toilers. The purpose was to focus further on this human phenomenon in the post-basing and post-military prostitution system eras. As background, the former military prostitution apparatus has transformed into a modern dynamic of rampant sex tourism and prostitution nationwide. This is characterized by hotel and resorts offering unrestricted carnal access, urban and provincial brothels (casas), discos, bars and pickup clubs, massage parlors, local barrio karaoke bars and street prostitution. A small case study sample (N = 4) of female and male second generation Amerasians were selected. Sample formation employed a non-probability ‘snowball’ technique drawing respondents from the notorious Angeles, Metro Manila, Olongapo City ‘AMO Amerasian Triangle’ where most former U.S. military installations were sited and modern sex tourism thrives. A six-month study and analysis of in-depth interviews of female and male sex laborers, their families and peers revealed a litany of disturbing, and troublesome experiences. Results showed profiles of debilitating human poverty, history of family disorganization, stigmatization, social marginalization and the ghost of the military prostitution system and its harmful legacy on Amerasian family units. Emerging were testimonials of wayward young people ensnared in a maelstrom of deep economic deprivation, familial dysfunction, psychological desperation and societal indifference. The paper recommends that more study is needed and implications of unstudied psychosocial and socioeconomic experiences of distressed younger generations of military Amerasians require specific research. Heretofore apathetic or disengaged U.S. institutions need to confront the issue and formulate activist and solution-oriented social welfare, human services and immigration easement policies and alternatives. These institutions specifically include academic and social science research agencies, corporate foundations, the U.S. Congress, and Departments of State, Defense and Health and Human Services, and Homeland Security (i.e. Citizen and Immigration Services) It is them who continue to endorse a laissez-faire policy of non-involvement over the entire Filipino Amerasian question. Such apathy, the paper concludes, relegates this consequential but neglected blood progeny to the status of humiliating destitution and exploitation. Amerasians; thus, remain entrapped in their former colonial, and neo-colonial habitat. Ironically, they are unwitting victims of a U.S. American homeland that fancies itself geo-politically as a strong and strategic military treaty ally of the Philippines in the Western Pacific.

Keywords: Asian Americans, diaspora, Filipino Amerasians, military prostitution, stigmatization

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4 Numerical Simulation of Von Karman Swirling Bioconvection Nanofluid Flow from a Deformable Rotating Disk

Authors: Ali Kadir, S. R. Mishra, M. Shamshuddin, O. Anwar Beg

Abstract:

Motivation- Rotating disk bio-reactors are fundamental to numerous medical/biochemical engineering processes including oxygen transfer, chromatography, purification and swirl-assisted pumping. The modern upsurge in biologically-enhanced engineering devices has embraced new phenomena including bioconvection of micro-organisms (photo-tactic, oxy-tactic, gyrotactic etc). The proven thermal performance superiority of nanofluids i.e. base fluids doped with engineered nanoparticles has also stimulated immense implementation in biomedical designs. Motivated by these emerging applications, we present a numerical thermofluid dynamic simulation of the transport phenomena in bioconvection nanofluid rotating disk bioreactor flow. Methodology- We study analytically and computationally the time-dependent three-dimensional viscous gyrotactic bioconvection in swirling nanofluid flow from a rotating disk configuration. The disk is also deformable i.e. able to extend (stretch) in the radial direction. Stefan blowing is included. The Buongiorno dilute nanofluid model is adopted wherein Brownian motion and thermophoresis are the dominant nanoscale effects. The primitive conservation equations for mass, radial, tangential and axial momentum, heat (energy), nanoparticle concentration and micro-organism density function are formulated in a cylindrical polar coordinate system with appropriate wall and free stream boundary conditions. A mass convective condition is also incorporated at the disk surface. Forced convection is considered i.e. buoyancy forces are neglected. This highly nonlinear, strongly coupled system of unsteady partial differential equations is normalized with the classical Von Karman and other transformations to render the boundary value problem (BVP) into an ordinary differential system which is solved with the efficient Adomian decomposition method (ADM). Validation with earlier Runge-Kutta shooting computations in the literature is also conducted. Extensive computations are presented (with the aid of MATLAB symbolic software) for radial and circumferential velocity components, temperature, nanoparticle concentration, micro-organism density number and gradients of these functions at the disk surface (radial local skin friction, local circumferential skin friction, Local Nusselt number, Local Sherwood number, motile microorganism mass transfer rate). Main Findings- Increasing radial stretching parameter decreases radial velocity and radial skin friction, reduces azimuthal velocity and skin friction, decreases local Nusselt number and motile micro-organism mass wall flux whereas it increases nano-particle local Sherwood number. Disk deceleration accelerates the radial flow, damps the azimuthal flow, decreases temperatures and thermal boundary layer thickness, depletes the nano-particle concentration magnitudes (and associated nano-particle species boundary layer thickness) and furthermore decreases the micro-organism density number and gyrotactic micro-organism species boundary layer thickness. Increasing Stefan blowing accelerates the radial flow and azimuthal (circumferential flow), elevates temperatures of the nanofluid, boosts nano-particle concentration (volume fraction) and gyrotactic micro-organism density number magnitudes whereas suction generates the reverse effects. Increasing suction effect reduces radial skin friction and azimuthal skin friction, local Nusselt number, and motile micro-organism wall mass flux whereas it enhances the nano-particle species local Sherwood number. Conclusions - Important transport characteristics are identified of relevance to real bioreactor nanotechnological systems not discussed in previous works. ADM is shown to achieve very rapid convergence and highly accurate solutions and shows excellent promise in simulating swirling multi-physical nano-bioconvection fluid dynamics problems. Furthermore, it provides an excellent complement to more general commercial computational fluid dynamics simulations.

Keywords: bio-nanofluids, rotating disk bioreactors, Von Karman swirling flow, numerical solutions

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3 Sustainable Agricultural and Soil Water Management Practices in Relation to Climate Change and Disaster: A Himalayan Country Experience

Authors: Krishna Raj Regmi

Abstract:

A “Climate change adaptation and disaster risk management for sustainable agriculture” project was implemented in Nepal, a Himalayan country during 2008 to 2013 sponsored jointly by Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), Nepal. The paper is based on the results and findings of this joint pilot project. The climate change events such as increased intensity of erratic rains in short spells, trend of prolonged drought, gradual rise in temperature in the higher elevations and occurrence of cold and hot waves in Terai (lower plains) has led to flash floods, massive erosion in the hills particularly in Churia range and drying of water sources. These recurring natural and climate-induced disasters are causing heavy damages through sedimentation and inundation of agricultural lands, crops, livestock, infrastructures and rural settlements in the downstream plains and thus reducing agriculture productivity and food security in the country. About 65% of the cultivated land in Nepal is rainfed with drought-prone characteristics and stabilization of agricultural production and productivity in these tracts will be possible through adoption of rainfed and drought-tolerant technologies as well as efficient soil-water management by the local communities. The adaptation and mitigation technologies and options identified by the project for soil erosion, flash floods and landslide control are on-farm watershed management, sloping land agriculture technologies (SALT), agro-forestry practices, agri-silvi-pastoral management, hedge-row contour planting, bio-engineering along slopes and river banks, plantation of multi-purpose trees and management of degraded waste land including sandy river-bed flood plains. The stress tolerant technologies with respect to drought, floods and temperature stress for efficient utilization of nutrient, soil, water and other resources for increased productivity are adoption of stress tolerant crop varieties and breeds of animals, indigenous proven technologies, mixed and inter-cropping systems, system of rice/wheat intensification (SRI), direct rice seeding, double transplanting of rice, off-season vegetable production and regular management of nurseries, orchards and animal sheds. The alternate energy use options and resource conservation practices for use by local communities are installation of bio-gas plants and clean stoves (Chulla range) for mitigation of green house gas (GHG) emissions, use of organic manures and bio-pesticides, jatropha cultivation, green manuring in rice fields and minimum/zero tillage practices for marshy lands. The efficient water management practices for increasing productivity of crops and livestock are use of micro-irrigation practices, construction of water conservation and water harvesting ponds, use of overhead water tanks and Thai jars for rain water harvesting and rehabilitation of on-farm irrigation systems. Initiation of some works on community-based early warning system, strengthening of met stations and disaster database management has made genuine efforts in providing disaster-tailored early warning, meteorological and insurance services to the local communities. Contingent planning is recommended to develop coping strategies and capacities of local communities to adopt necessary changes in the cropping patterns and practices in relation to adverse climatic and disaster risk conditions. At the end, adoption of awareness raising and capacity development activities (technical and institutional) and networking on climate-induced disaster and risks through training, visits and knowledge sharing workshops, dissemination of technical know-how and technologies, conduct of farmers' field schools, development of extension materials and their displays are being promoted. However, there is still need of strong coordination and linkage between agriculture, environment, forestry, meteorology, irrigation, climate-induced pro-active disaster preparedness and research at the ministry, department and district level for up-scaling, implementation and institutionalization of climate change and disaster risk management activities and adaptation mitigation options in agriculture for sustainable livelihoods of the communities.

Keywords: climate change adaptation, disaster risk management, soil-water management practices, sustainable agriculture

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2 Developing VR-Based Neurorehabilitation Support Tools: A Step-by-Step Approach for Cognitive Rehabilitation and Pain Distraction during Invasive Techniques in Hospital Settings

Authors: Alba Prats-Bisbe, Jaume López-Carballo, David Leno-Colorado, Alberto García Molina, Alicia Romero Marquez, Elena Hernández Pena, Eloy Opisso Salleras, Raimon Jané Campos

Abstract:

Neurological disorders are a leading cause of disability and premature mortality worldwide. Neurorehabilitation (NRHB) is a clinical process aimed at reducing functional impairment, promoting societal participation, and improving the quality of life for affected individuals. Virtual reality (VR) technology is emerging as a promising NRHB support tool. Its immersive nature fosters a strong sense of agency and embodiment, motivating patients to engage in meaningful tasks and increasing adherence to therapy. However, the clinical benefits of VR interventions are challenging to determine due to the high heterogeneity among health applications. This study explores a stepwise development approach for creating VR-based tools to assist individuals with neurological disorders in medical practice, aiming to enhance reproducibility, facilitate comparison, and promote the generalization of findings. Building on previous research, the step-by-step methodology encompasses: Needs Identification– conducting cross-disciplinary meetings to brainstorm problems, solutions, and address barriers. Intervention Definition– target population, set goals, and conceptualize the VR system (equipment and environments). Material Selection and Placement– choose appropriate hardware and software, place the device within the hospital setting, and test equipment. Co-design– collaboratively create VR environments, user interfaces, and data management strategies. Prototyping– develop VR prototypes, conduct user testing, and make iterative redesigns. Usability and Feasibility Assessment– design protocols and conduct trials with stakeholders in the hospital setting. Efficacy Assessment– conduct clinical trials to evaluate outcomes and long-term effects. Cost-Effectiveness Validation– assess reproducibility, sustainability, and balance between costs and benefits. NRHB is complex due to the multifaceted needs of patients and the interdisciplinary healthcare architecture. VR has the potential to support various applications, such as motor skill training, cognitive tasks, pain management, unilateral spatial neglect (diagnosis and treatment), mirror therapy, and ecologically valid activities of daily living. Following this methodology was crucial for launching a VR-based system in a real hospital environment. Collaboration with neuropsychologists lead to develop A) a VR-based tool for cognitive rehabilitation in patients with acquired brain injury (ABI). The system comprises a head-mounted display (HTC Vive Pro Eye) and 7 tasks targeting attention, memory, and executive functions. A desktop application facilitates session configuration, while database records in-game variables. The VR tool's usability and feasibility were demonstrated in proof-of-concept trials with 20 patients, and effectiveness is being tested through a clinical protocol with 12 patients completing 24-session treatment. Another case involved collaboration with nurses and paediatric physiatrists to create B) a VR-based distraction tool during invasive techniques. The goal is to alleviate pain and anxiety associated with botulinum toxin (BTX) injections, blood tests, or intravenous placements. An all-in-one headset (HTC Vive Focus 3) deploys 360º videos to improve the experience for paediatric patients and their families. This study presents a framework for developing clinically relevant and technologically feasible VR-based support tools for hospital settings. Despite differences in patient type, intervention purpose, and VR system, the methodology demonstrates usability, viability, reproducibility and preliminary clinical benefits. It highlights the importance approach centred on clinician and patient needs for any aspect of NRHB within a real hospital setting.

Keywords: neurological disorders, neurorehabilitation, stepwise development approach, virtual reality

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1 Impacts of Transformational Leadership: Petronas Stations in Sabah, Malaysia

Authors: Lizinis Cassendra Frederick Dony, Jirom Jeremy Frederick Dony, Cyril Supain Christopher

Abstract:

The purpose of this paper is to improve the devotion to leadership through HR practices implementation at the PETRONAS stations. This emphasize the importance of personal grooming and Customer Care hospitality training for their front line working individuals and teams’ at PETRONAS stations in Sabah. Based on Thomas Edison, International Leadership Journal, theory, research, education and development practice and application to all organizational phenomena may affect or be affected by leadership. FINDINGS – PETRONAS in short called Petroliam Nasional Berhad is a Malaysian oil and gas company that was founded on August 17, 1974. Wholly owned by the Government of Malaysia, the corporation is vested with the entire oil and gas resources in Malaysia and is entrusted with the responsibility of developing and adding value to these resources. Fortune ranks PETRONAS as the 68th largest company in the world in 2012. It also ranks PETRONAS as the 12th most profitable company in the world and the most profitable in Asia. As of the end of March 2005, the PETRONAS Group comprised 103 wholly owned subsidiaries, 19 partly owned outfits and 57 associated companies. The group is engaged in a wide spectrum of petroleum activities, including upstream exploration and production of oil and gas to downstream oil refining, marketing and distribution of petroleum products, trading, gas processing and liquefaction, gas transmission pipeline network operations, marketing of liquefied natural gas; petrochemical manufacturing and marketing; shipping; automotive engineering and property investment. PETRONAS has growing their marketing channel in a competitive market. They have combined their resources to pursue common goals. PETRONAS provides opportunity to carry out Industrial Training Job Placement to the University students in Malaysia for 6-8 months. The effects of the Industrial Training have exposed them to the real working environment experience acting representing on behalf of General Manager for almost one year. Thus, the management education and reward incentives schemes have aspire the working teams transformed to gain their good leadership. Furthermore, knowledge and experiences are very important in the human capital development transformation. SPSS extends the accurate analysis PETRONAS achievement through 280 questionnaires and 81 questionnaires through excel calculation distributed to interview face to face with the customers, PETRONAS dealers and front desk staffs stations in the 17 stations in Kota Kinabalu, Sabah. Hence, this research study will improve its service quality innovation and business sustainability performance optimization. ORIGINALITY / VALUE – The impact of Transformational Leadership practices have influenced the working team’s behaviour as a Brand Ambassadors of PETRONAS. Finally, the findings correlation indicated that PETRONAS stations needs more HR resources practices to deploy more customer care retention resources in mitigating the business challenges in oil and gas industry. Therefore, as the business established at stiff competition globally (Cooper, 2006; Marques and Simon, 2006), it is crucial for the team management should be capable to minimize noises risk, financial risk and mitigating any other risks as a whole at the optimum level. CONCLUSION- As to conclude this research found that both transformational and transactional contingent reward leadership4 were positively correlated with ratings of platoon potency and ratings of leadership for the platoon leader and sergeant were moderately inter correlated. Due to this identification, we recommended that PETRONAS management should offers quality team management in PETRONAS stations in a broader variety of leadership training specialization in the operation efficiency at the front desk Customer Care hospitality. By having the reliability and validity of job experiences, it leverages diversity teamwork and cross collaboration. Other than leveraging factor, PETRONAS also will strengthen the interpersonal front liners effectiveness and enhance quality of interaction through effective communication. Finally, through numerous CSR correlation studies regression PETRONAS performance on Corporate Social Performance and several control variables.1 CSR model activities can be mis-specified if it is not controllable under R & D which evident in various feedbacks collected from the local communities and younger generation is inclined to higher financial expectation from PETRONAS. But, however, it created a huge impact on the nation building as part of its social adaptability overreaching their business stakeholders’ satisfaction in Sabah.

Keywords: human resources practices implementation (hrpi), source of competitive advantage in people’s development (socaipd), corporate social responsibility (csr), service quality at front desk stations (sqafd), impacts of petronas leadership (iopl)

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