Search results for: data management system

Authors: Mohamed Saad Ahmed Hussien

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This paper discusses the risk management in Islamic banks and aims to determine the difference in the practices and methods of risk management in those banks compared to the conventional banks, and to make a case study of the biggest Islamic bank in Egypt (Faisal Islamic Bank of Egypt) to identify the most important financial risks faced and how to manage those risks. It was found that Islamic banks face two types of risks. The first type is similar to the risks in conventional banks; the second type is the additional risks which facing the Islamic banks only as a result of some Islamic modes of financing. With regard to the risk management, Islamic banks such as conventional banks applied the regulatory rules issued by the Central Banks and the Basel Committee; Islamic banks also applied the instructions and procedures issued by the Islamic Financial Services Board (IFSB). Also, Islamic banks are similar to the conventional banks in the practices and methods which they use to manage the risks. And there are some factors that may affect the risk management in Islamic banks, such as the size of the bank and the efficiency of the administration and the staff of the bank.

Keywords: conventional banks, Faisal Islamic Bank of Egypt, Islamic banks, risk management

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Authors: A. G. Matveev

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The copyrights system is a combination of different elements. The number, content and the correlation of these elements are different for different legal orders. The models of copyrights systems display this system in terms of the interaction of economic and author's moral rights. Monistic and dualistic models are the most popular ones. The article deals with different points of view on the monism and dualism in copyright system. A specific model of the copyright in Switzerland in the XXth century is analyzed. The evolution of a French dualistic model of copyright is shown. The author believes that one should talk not about one, but rather about a number of dualism forms of copyright system.

Keywords: copyright, exclusive copyright, economic rights, author's moral rights, rights of personality, monistic model, dualistic model

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Authors: Seung-Hwan Ju, Yo-Han Choi, Hee-Suk Seo, Tae-Kyung Kim

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This study investigates the permissions requested by Android applications, and the possibility of identifying suspicious applications based only on information presented to the user before an application is downloaded. The pattern analysis is based on a smaller data set consisting of confirmed malicious applications. The method is evaluated based on its ability to recognize malicious potential in the analyzed applications. In this study, we develop a system to monitor that mobile application permission at application update. This study is a service-based malware analysis. It will be based on the mobile security study.

Keywords: malware patterns, application permission, application analysis, security

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Authors: Aderonke Oluseun Akinwumi, Olusola A. Komolaf

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This paper gives information about the wide array of challenges facing both the electric utilities and consumers in the distribution system in developing countries, using Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife Nigeria as a case study. It also proffers cost-effective solution through remote monitoring, diagnostic and operation of distribution networks without compromising the system reliability. As utilities move from manned and unintelligent networks to completely unmanned smart grids, switching activities at substations and feeders will be managed and controlled remotely by dedicated systems hence this design. The Substation Remote Diagnostic and Operation Solution (sRDOs) would remotely monitor the load on Medium Voltage (MV) and Low Voltage (LV) feeders as well as distribution transformers and allow the utility disconnect non-paying customers with absolutely no extra resource deployment and without interrupting supply to paying customers. The aftermath of the implementation of this design improved the lifetime of key distribution infrastructure by automatically isolating feeders during overload conditions and more importantly erring consumers. This increased the ratio of revenue generated on electricity bills to total network load.

Keywords: electric utility, consumers, remote monitoring, diagnostic, system reliability, manned and unintelligent networks, unmanned smart grids, switching activities, medium voltage, low voltage, distribution transformer

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Authors: Young-Su Ryu, Kyung-Won Park, Jae-Hoon Song, Ki-Won Kwon

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In this paper, an embedded frequency modulation (FM) transmission control software (SW) for a low power battery system is designed and implemented. The simultaneous translation systems for various languages are needed as so many international conferences and festivals are held in world wide. Especially in portable transmitting and receiving systems, the ability of long operation life is used for a measure of value. This paper proposes an embedded FM transmission control SW for low power battery system and shows the results of the SW implemented on a portable FM transmission system.

Keywords: FM transmission, simultaneous translation system, portable transmitting and receiving systems, low power embedded control SW

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Authors: Azar Baghtaghi

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Financial risk management is critically important as it enables companies to maintain stability and profitability amidst market fluctuations and unexpected events. It involves the precise identification of risks that could impact investments, assets, and potential revenues. By implementing effective risk management strategies, companies can insure themselves against adverse market changes and prevent potential losses. In today's era, where markets are highly complex and influenced by various factors such as macroeconomic policies, exchange rate fluctuations, and natural disasters, the need for meticulous planning to cope with these uncertainties is more pronounced. Ultimately, financial risk management means being prepared for the future and the ability to sustain business in changing environments. A company capable of managing its risks not only achieves sustainable profitability but also gains the confidence of shareholders, investors, and business partners, enhancing its competitive position in the market. In this article, the types of financial risk and risk management strategies for improving financial performance were investigated. By identifying the risks stated in this article and their evaluation techniques, it is possible to improve the organization's financial performance.

Keywords: strategy, risk, risk management, financial performance.

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Authors: Hui Zhang, Sherif Beskhyroun

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In this study, a highly flexible LoRa-Based wireless sensing system was used to assess the strain state performance of building structures. The system was developed to address the local damage limitation of structural health monitoring (SHM) systems. The system is part of an intelligent SHM system designed to monitor, collect and transmit strain changes in key structural components. The main purpose of the wireless sensor system is to reduce the development and installation costs, and reduce the power consumption of the system, so as to achieve long-time monitoring. The highly stretchable flexible strain gauge is mounted on the surface of the structure and is waterproof, heat resistant, and low temperature resistant, greatly reducing the installation and maintenance costs of the sensor. The system was also developed with the aim of using LoRa wireless communication technology to achieve both low power consumption and long-distance transmission, therefore solving the problem of large-scale deployment of sensors to cover more areas in large structures. In the long-term monitoring of the building structure, the system shows very high performance, very low actual power consumption, and wireless transmission stability. The results show that the developed system has a high resolution, sensitivity, and high possibility of long-term monitoring.

Keywords: LoRa, SHM system, strain measurement, civil structures, flexible sensing system

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Authors: Utsav Bhardwaj, Shyama Prasad Das

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To meet the extensive requirements of thermal management of the circuit card assemblies (CCAs), satellites, PCBs, microprocessors, any other electronic circuitry, pulsating heat pipes (PHPs) have emerged in the recent past as one of the best solutions technically. But industrial application of PHPs is still unexplored up to a large extent due to their poor reliability. There are several systems as well as operational parameters which not only affect the performance of an operating PHP, but also decide whether the PHP can operate sustainably or not. Functioning may completely be halted for some particular combinations of the values of system and operational parameters. Among the system parameters, adiabatic length is one of the important ones. In the present work, a simplest single branch PHP system with an adiabatic section has been considered. It is assumed to have only one vapour bubble and one liquid plug. First, the system has been mathematically modeled using film evaporation/condensation model, followed by the steps of recognition of equilibrium zone, non-dimensionalization and linearization. Then proceeding with a periodical solution of the linearized and reduced differential equations, stability analysis has been performed. Slow and fast variables have been identified, and averaging approach has been used for the slow ones. Ultimately, temporal evolution of the PHP is predicted by numerically solving the averaged equations, to know whether the oscillations are likely to sustain/decay temporally. Stability threshold has also been determined in terms of some non-dimensional numbers formed by different groupings of system and operational parameters. A combined analytical and numerical approach has been used, and it has been found that for each combination of all other parameters, there exists a maximum length of the adiabatic section beyond which the PHP cannot function at all. This length has been called as “Critical Adiabatic Length (L_ac)”. For adiabatic lengths greater than “L_ac”, oscillations are found to be always decaying sooner or later. Dependence of “L_ac” on some other parameters has also been checked and correlated at certain evaporator & condenser section temperatures. “L_ac” has been found to be linearly increasing with increase in evaporator section length (L_e), whereas the condenser section length (L_c) has been found to have almost no effect on it upto a certain limit. But at considerably large condenser section lengths, “L_ac” is expected to decrease with increase in “L_c” due to increased wall friction. Rise in static pressure (p_r) exerted by the working fluid reservoir makes “L_ac” rise exponentially whereas it increases cubically with increase in the inner diameter (d) of PHP. Physics of all such variations has been given a good insight too. Thus, a methodology for quantification of the critical adiabatic length for any possible set of all other parameters of PHP has been established.

Keywords: critical adiabatic length, evaporation/condensation, pulsating heat pipe (PHP), thermal management

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Authors: Ljubica Milanović Glavan, Vesna Bosilj Vukšić, Dalia Suša

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In order to gain a competitive advantage, many companies are focusing on reorganization of their business processes and implementing process-based management. In this context, assessing process performance is essential because it enables individuals and groups to assess where they stand in comparison to their competitors. In this paper, it is argued that process performance measurement is a necessity for a modern process-oriented company and it should be supported by a holistic process performance measurement system. It seems very unlikely that a universal set of performance indicators can be applied successfully to all business processes. Thus, performance indicators must be process-specific and have to be derived from both the strategic enterprise-wide goals and the process goals. Based on the extensive literature review and interviews conducted in Croatian company a conceptual framework for process performance measurement system was developed. The main objective of such system is to help process managers by providing comprehensive and timely information on the performance of business processes. This information can be used to communicate goals and current performance of a business process directly to the process team, to improve resource allocation and process output regarding quantity and quality, to give early warning signals, to make a diagnosis of the weaknesses of a business process, to decide whether corrective actions are needed and to assess the impact of actions taken.

Keywords: Croatia, key performance indicators, performance measurement, process performance

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Authors: Madeleine Cox

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Objective; analyse patient choices in management of first trimester miscarriage, rates of complications including repeat procedure. Design: all first trimester miscarriages from a tertiary institution on the Gold Coast in a 6 month time frame (July to December 2021) were reviewed, including choice of management, histopathology, any representations or admissions, and potential complications. Results: a total of 224 first trimester miscarriages were identified. Of these, 183 (81%) opted to have surgical management in the first instance. Of the remaining patients, 18 (8%) opted to have medical management, and 28 (12.5%) opted to have expectant management. In total, 33(15%) patients required a repeat treatment for retained products. 1 had medical management for a small volume PROC post suction curette. A significant number of these patients initially opted for medical management but then elected to have shorter follow up than usual and went on to have retained products noted. 5 women who had small volumes of RPOC post medical or surgical management had repeat suction curette, however, had very small volumes of products on scan and on curette and may have had a good result with repeated misoprostol administration. It is important to note that whilst a common procedure, suction curettes are not without risk. 2 women had significant blood loss of 1L and 1.5L. A third women had a uterine perforation, a rare but recognised complication, she went on to require a laparoscopy which identified a small serosal bowel injury which was closed by the colorectal team. Conclusion: Management of first trimester miscarriage should be guided by patient preference. It is important to be able to provide patients with their choice of management, however, it is also important to have a good understanding of the risks of each management choice, chances of repeated procedure, appropriate time frame for follow up. Women who choose to undertake medical or expectant management should be supported through this time, with appropriate time frame between taking misoprostol and repeat scan so that the true effects can be evaluated. Patients returning for scans within 2-3 days are more likely to be booked for further surgery, however, may reflect patients who did not have adequate counselling or simply changed their mind on their preferred management options.

Keywords: miscarriage, gynaecology, obstetrics, first trimester

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Authors: Beata Jackowska-Zduniak

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We formulate and analyze a mathematical model describing dynamics of the hypothalamus-pituitary-thyroid homoeostatic mechanism in endocrine system. We introduce to this system two types of couplings and delay. In our model, feedback controls the secretion of thyroid hormones and delay reflects time lags required for transportation of the hormones. The influence of delayed feedback on the stability behaviour of the system is discussed. Analytical results are illustrated by numerical examples of the model dynamics. This system of equations describes normal activity of the thyroid and also a couple of types of malfunctions (e.g. hyperthyroidism).

Keywords: mathematical modeling, ordinary differential equations, endocrine system, delay differential equation

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Authors: Rafikoddin Kazi

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Almost all the major religions of the world condemn the transactions based on interest which promotes self-centered and materialistic thinking. Still, it is amazing to note that it has become the tradition of transaction at world level hence it is called traditional financial system. The main feature of this system is that it considers economic aspects of the transaction only. This system supports the economic development and not the welfare of humankind. However, it is worth mentioning the fact that, except Islamic financial system no other financial system stood in front of it as a viable alternative system. Although many countries have tried to create financial infrastructure and system, still the Malaysian Islamic financial system has got its own peculiarity. It has made tremendous progress in creating sound Islamic Financial system. However, the historical aspect of this country which has passed through Islamic and traditional financial system has got its own advantages and disadvantages. The advantageous factor is that, despite having mix and heterogeneous culture, it has succeeded in creating Islamic Financial System based on the dual legal system to satisfy the needs of multi-cultural factors. This fact has proved that Islamic Financial System does not need purely Muslim population. However, due to adoption of the dual legal system, several legal issues have been taken place. According to this system, the application of Islamic Law has been limited only up to some family and religious matters. The rest of the matters are being dealt with under the traditional laws, the principles and practices of which are different from that of the Islamic Legal System. The matter becomes all the more complicated when the cases are partially or simultaneously concerned with traditional vis-à-vis Islamic Laws as it requires expertise in both the legal systems. However, the educational principles and systems are different in respect of both the systems. To face this problem, Shariah Advisory Council has been established. But the Multiplicity of Shariah authorities without judicial power has created confusion at various levels. Therefore, some experts have stressed the need for improving, empowering the Islamic financial, legal system to make it more integrated and holistic. In view of the above, an endeavor has been made in this paper to throw some light on the matters related to the adoption of the dual legal system. The paper is conceptual in nature and the method adopted is the intensive survey of literature thereby all the information has been gathered from the secondary sources.

Keywords: Islamic financial system, Islamic legal system, Islamic capital market (ICM) , traditional financial system

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Authors: Małgorzata Smolarek

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One of the barriers to the development of small and medium-sized enterprises (SME) are difficulties connected with management of human resources. The first part of article defines the specifics of staff management in small and medium enterprises. The practical part presents results of own studies in the area of diagnosis of the state of the human resources management in small and medium-sized enterprises in Poland. It takes into account its impact on the functioning of SME in a variable environment. This part presents findings of empirical studies, which enabled verification of the hypotheses and formulation of conclusions. The findings presented in this paper were obtained during the implementation of the project entitled 'Tendencies and challenges in strategic managing SME in Silesian Voivodeship.' The aim of the studies was to diagnose the state of strategic management and human resources management taking into account its impact on the functioning of small and medium enterprises operating in Silesian Voivodeship in Poland and to indicate improvement areas of the model under diagnosis. One of the specific objectives of the studies was to diagnose the state of the process of strategic management of human resources and to identify fundamental problems. In this area, the main hypothesis was formulated: The enterprises analysed do not have comprehensive strategies for management of human resources. The survey was conducted by questionnaire. Main Research Results: Human resource management in SMEs is characterized by simplicity of procedures, and the lack of sophisticated tools and its specificity depends on the size of the company. The process of human resources management in SME has to be adjusted to the structure of an organisation, result from its objectives, so that an organisation can fully implement its strategic plans and achieve success and competitive advantage on the market. A guarantee of success is an accurately developed policy of human resources management based on earlier analyses of the existing procedures and possessed human resources.

Keywords: human resources management, human resources policy, personnel strategy, small and medium enterprises

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Authors: Omar Shakra

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This paper contains a huge number of benefits that we can use it in several places and times in fire safety protection in the Middle East especially in Egypt . People here in Egypt did not consider the safety and fire protection as important as it is. But on the other hand, its very important for them to contain the fire systems and safety in every facility, the companies , hospitals , police stations , and even the super markets must use the fire system. It makes the facility safe to the visitors while they are using it.From my point of view as the owner Fire Safety Company called Deluge Egypt , i can say that not all of the companies use the fire system protection according to the high cost they prefer to build their company without the protection, and this is make the building totally unsafe to be used from the visitors or client.So, i am looking for new methods and technology to invest in Egypt, and this is through attending this Conference and let the audiences know more about the services i provide and [to let them know about the importance of the Fire Safety in Egypt. The Objectives of my research 1- The system that i used in my Company. 2- The benefits of the Fire System Protection. 3-The importance of the Fire System and safety. 4-The use of the new Technologies. 5-The hardships that i found while having new deals with new clients.

Keywords: fire, system, protection, fire hydrants, security, alarms

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Authors: Soheila Sadeghi

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Accurate forecasting of project performance metrics is crucial for successfully managing and delivering urban road reconstruction projects. Traditional methods often rely on static baseline plans and fail to consider the dynamic nature of project progress and external factors. This research proposes a machine learning-based approach to forecast project performance metrics, such as cost variance and earned value, for each Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) category in an urban road reconstruction project. The proposed model utilizes time series forecasting techniques, including Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks, to predict future performance based on historical data and project progress. The model also incorporates external factors, such as weather patterns and resource availability, as features to enhance the accuracy of forecasts. By applying the predictive power of machine learning, the performance forecasting model enables proactive identification of potential deviations from the baseline plan, which allows project managers to take timely corrective actions. The research aims to validate the effectiveness of the proposed approach using a case study of an urban road reconstruction project, comparing the model's forecasts with actual project performance data. The findings of this research contribute to the advancement of project management practices in the construction industry, offering a data-driven solution for improving project performance monitoring and control.

Keywords: project performance forecasting, machine learning, time series forecasting, cost variance, earned value management

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Authors: Mulalo Mushaisano

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It has been revealed in the existing literature that specific knowledge management practices can be implemented and utilized in organizations to enable sustaining service innovation. This kind of innovation is of crucial importance in service environments such as institutions of higher education because it allows the delivery of enhanced services which are designed to add value and deliver better services to clients. However, there is a widespread lack of the necessary implementation of essential knowledge practices in higher education institutions owing to a variety of internal challenges and barriers. The primary objective of the study was to identify the essential knowledge management practices required for the enablement of service innovation. The main outcome was the development of a framework of knowledge management practice which can be applied in institutions of higher education to achieve service innovation. The study will address the gap in where existing literature mostly explored the aforementioned processes in the context of commercial and corporate organizations and not in the higher education environment.

Keywords: higher education, innovation, knowledge management, service innovation

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Authors: Bit-Na Kwon, Dong-Hyun Ha, Hyoung-Kyu Song

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In wireless communication, space-time block code (STBC), cyclic delay diversity (CDD) and space-time cyclic delay diversity (STCDD) are used as the spatial diversity schemes and have been widely studied for the reliable communication. If these schemes are used, the communication system can obtain the improved performance. However, the quality of the system is degraded when the distance between a source and a destination is distant in wireless communication system. In this paper, the cooperative transmission scheme using two sources is proposed and improves the performance of the wireless communication system.

Keywords: OFDM, Cooperative communication, CDD, STBC, STCDD

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Authors: Perpetual Onyejelem, Kenichi Matsui

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Solid waste management is one essential area for urban administration to achieve environmental sustainability. Proper solid waste management (SWM) improves the environment by reducing diseases and increasing public health. On the other way, improper SWM practices negatively impact public health and environmental sustainability. This article evaluates SWM in Port Harcourt, Nigeria, with the goal of determining the current solid waste management practices and their health implications. This study used secondary data, which relies on existing published literature and official documents. The Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) statement and its four-stage inclusion/exclusion criteria were utilized as part of a systematic literature review technique to locate the literature that concerns SWM practices and the implementation of solid waste management policies between 2014-2023 in PortHarcourt and its health effects from specific databases (Scopus and Google Scholar). The results found that despite the existence and implementation of the Rivers State Waste Management Policy and the formulation of the National Policy on Solid Waste Management in Port Harcourt, residents continued to dump waste in drainages. They were unaware of waste sorting and dumped waste haphazardly. This trend has persisted due to a lack of political commitment to the effective implementation and monitoring of policies and strategies and a lack of training provided to waste collectors regarding the SWM approach, which involves sorting and separating waste. In addition, inadequate remuneration for waste collectors, the absence of community participation in policy formulation, and insufficient awareness among residents regarding the 3R approach are also contributory factors. This caused the emergence of vector-borne diseases such as malaria, lassa fever, and cholera in Port Harcourt, increasing the expense of healthcare for locals, particularly low-income households. The study urges the government to prioritize protecting the health of its citizens by studying the methods other nations have taken to address the problem of solid waste management and adopting those that work best for their region. The bottom-up strategy should be used to include locals in developing solutions. However, citizens who are always the most impacted by this issue should launch initiatives to address it and put pressure on the government to assist them when they have limitations.

Keywords: health effects, solid waste management practices, environmental pollution, Port-Harcourt

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Authors: A. Hidalgo, A. Desportes, E. Bonin, A. Kadaoui, T. Bouaricha

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Present paper is concerned with portfolio management with Black-Litterman (B-L) model. Considered stocks are exclusively limited to large companies stocks on US market. Results obtained by application of the model are presented. From analysis of collected Dow Jones stock data, remarkable explicit analytical expression of optimal B-L parameter τ, which scales dispersion of normal distribution of assets mean return, is proposed in terms of standard deviation of covariance matrix. Implementation has been developed in Matlab environment to split optimization in Markovitz sense from specific elements related to B-L representation.

Keywords: Black-Litterman, Markowitz, market data, portfolio manager opinion

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Authors: Qingqing Feng, S. Thomas Ng, Frank J. Xu, Jiduo Xing

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Faced with unprecedented challenges including aging assets, lack of maintenance budget, overtaxed and inefficient usage, and outcry for better service quality from the society, today’s infrastructure systems has become the main focus of many metropolises to pursue sustainable urban development and improve resilience. Digital twin, being one of the most innovative enabling technologies nowadays, may open up new ways for tackling various infrastructure asset management (IAM) problems. Digital twin application for IAM, as its name indicated, represents an evolving digital model of intended infrastructure that possesses functions including real-time monitoring; what-if events simulation; and scheduling, maintenance, and management optimization based on technologies like IoT, big data and AI. Up to now, there are already vast quantities of global initiatives of digital twin applications like 'Virtual Singapore' and 'Digital Built Britain'. With digital twin technology permeating the IAM field progressively, it is necessary to consider the maturity of the application and how those institutional or industrial digital twin application processes will evolve in future. In order to deal with the gap of lacking such kind of benchmark, a draft maturity model is developed for digital twin application in the IAM field. Firstly, an overview of current smart cities maturity models is given, based on which the draft Maturity Model of Digital Twin Application for Infrastructure Asset Management (MM-DTIAM) is developed for multi-stakeholders to evaluate and derive informed decision. The process of development follows a systematic approach with four major procedures, namely scoping, designing, populating and testing. Through in-depth literature review, interview and focus group meeting, the key domain areas are populated, defined and iteratively tuned. Finally, the case study of several digital twin projects is conducted for self-verification. The findings of the research reveal that: (i) the developed maturity model outlines five maturing levels leading to an optimised digital twin application from the aspects of strategic intent, data, technology, governance, and stakeholders’ engagement; (ii) based on the case study, levels 1 to 3 are already partially implemented in some initiatives while level 4 is on the way; and (iii) more practices are still needed to refine the draft to be mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive in key domain areas.

Keywords: digital twin, infrastructure asset management, maturity model, smart city

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Authors: Jean-Philippe Amat, Timothée Vergne, Aymeric Hans, Bénédicte Ferry, Pascal Hendrikx, Jackie Tapprest, Barbara Dufour, Agnès Leblond

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The surveillance of infectious diseases is necessary to describe their occurrence and help the planning, implementation and evaluation of risk mitigation activities. However, the exact number of detected cases may remain unknown whether surveillance is based on serological tests because identifying seroconversion may be difficult. Moreover, incomplete detection of cases or outbreaks is a recurrent issue in the field of disease surveillance. This study addresses these two issues. Using a viral animal disease as an example (equine viral arteritis), the goals were to establish suitable rules for identifying seroconversion in order to estimate the number of cases and outbreaks detected by a surveillance system in France between 2006 and 2013, and to assess the sensitivity of this system by estimating the total number of outbreaks that occurred during this period (including unreported outbreaks) using a capture-recapture model. Data from horses which exhibited at least one positive result in serology using viral neutralization test between 2006 and 2013 were used for analysis (n=1,645). Data consisted of the annual antibody titers and the location of the subjects (towns). A consensus among multidisciplinary experts (specialists in the disease and its laboratory diagnosis, epidemiologists) was reached to consider seroconversion as a change in antibody titer from negative to at least 32 or as a three-fold or greater increase. The number of seroconversions was counted for each town and modeled using a unilist zero-truncated binomial (ZTB) capture-recapture model with R software. The binomial denominator was the number of horses tested in each infected town. Using the defined rules, 239 cases located in 177 towns (outbreaks) were identified from 2006 to 2013. Subsequently, the sensitivity of the surveillance system was estimated as the ratio of the number of detected outbreaks to the total number of outbreaks that occurred (including unreported outbreaks) estimated using the ZTB model. The total number of outbreaks was estimated at 215 (95% credible interval CrI95%: 195-249) and the surveillance sensitivity at 82% (CrI95%: 71-91). The rules proposed for identifying seroconversion may serve future research. Such rules, adjusted to the local environment, could conceivably be applied in other countries with surveillance programs dedicated to this disease. More generally, defining ad hoc algorithms for interpreting the antibody titer could be useful regarding other human and animal diseases and zoonosis when there is a lack of accurate information in the literature about the serological response in naturally infected subjects. This study shows how capture-recapture methods may help to estimate the sensitivity of an imperfect surveillance system and to valorize surveillance data. The sensitivity of the surveillance system of equine viral arteritis is relatively high and supports its relevance to prevent the disease spreading.

Keywords: Bayesian inference, capture-recapture, epidemiology, equine viral arteritis, infectious disease, seroconversion, surveillance

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Authors: Kostas Kouvaris, Anastasia Eleftheriou, Georgios A. Sarantitis, Apostolos Chondronasios

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To achieve the objective of almost zero carbon energy solutions by 2050, the EU needs to accelerate the development of integrated, highly efficient and environmentally friendly solutions. In this direction, district heating and cooling (DHC) emerges as a viable and more efficient alternative to conventional, decentralized heating and cooling systems, enabling a combination of more efficient renewable and competitive energy supplies. In this paper, we develop a forecasting tool for near real-time local weather and thermal energy demand predictions for an entire DHC network. In this fashion, we are able to extend the functionality and to improve the energy efficiency of the DHC network by predicting and adjusting the heat load that is distributed from the heat generation plant to the connected buildings by the heat pipe network. Two case-studies are considered; one for Vransko, Slovenia and one for Montpellier, France. The data consists of i) local weather data, such as humidity, temperature, and precipitation, ii) weather forecast data, such as the outdoor temperature and iii) DHC operational parameters, such as the mass flow rate, supply and return temperature. The external temperature is found to be the most important energy-related variable for space conditioning, and thus it is used as an external parameter for the energy demand models. For the development of the forecasting tool, we use state-of-the-art deep neural networks and more specifically, recurrent networks with long-short-term memory cells, which are able to capture complex non-linear relations among temporal variables. Firstly, we develop models to forecast outdoor temperatures for the next 24 hours using local weather data for each case-study. Subsequently, we develop models to forecast thermal demand for the same period, taking under consideration past energy demand values as well as the predicted temperature values from the weather forecasting models. The contributions to the scientific and industrial community are three-fold, and the empirical results are highly encouraging. First, we are able to predict future thermal demand levels for the two locations under consideration with minimal errors. Second, we examine the impact of the outdoor temperature on the predictive ability of the models and how the accuracy of the energy demand forecasts decreases with the forecast horizon. Third, we extend the relevant literature with a new dataset of thermal demand and examine the performance and applicability of machine learning techniques to solve real-world problems. Overall, the solution proposed in this paper is in accordance with EU targets, providing an automated smart energy management system, decreasing human errors and reducing excessive energy production.

Keywords: machine learning, LSTMs, district heating and cooling system, thermal demand

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Authors: N. Pegahfar, P. Ghafarian

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In this research, the synoptic weather conditions during the heavy flood of 10-12 January 2020 in the Sistan-va-Balouchestan Province of Iran will be analyzed. To this aim, reanalysis data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), NCEP Global Forecasting System (GFS) analysis data, measured data from a surface station together with satellite images from the European Organization for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT) have been used from 9 to 12 January 2020. Atmospheric parameters both at the lower troposphere and also at the upper part of that have been used, including absolute vorticity, wind velocity, temperature, geopotential height, relative humidity, and precipitation. Results indicated that both lower-level and upper-level currents were strong. In addition, the transport of a large amount of humidity from the Oman Sea and the Red Sea to the south and southeast of Iran (Sistan-va-Balouchestan Province) led to the vast and unexpected precipitation and then a heavy flood.

Keywords: Sistan-va-Balouchestn Province, heavy flood, synoptic, analysis data

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Authors: Kay Thinzar Phu, Lwin Lwin Oo

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In an intelligent transport system and advanced driver assistance system, the developing of real-time traffic sign detection and recognition (TSDR) system plays an important part in recent research field. There are many challenges for developing real-time TSDR system due to motion artifacts, variable lighting and weather conditions and situations of traffic signs. Researchers have already proposed various methods to minimize the challenges problem. The aim of the proposed research is to develop an efficient and effective TSDR in real time. This system proposes an adaptive thresholding method based on RGB color for traffic signs detection and new features for traffic signs recognition. In this system, the RGB color thresholding is used to detect the blue and yellow color traffic signs regions. The system performs the shape identify to decide whether the output candidate region is traffic sign or not. Lastly, new features such as termination points, bifurcation points, and 90’ angles are extracted from validated image. This system uses Myanmar Traffic Sign dataset.

Keywords: adaptive thresholding based on RGB color, blue color detection, feature extraction, yellow color detection

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Authors: Kristian Bugeja, Upeshala A. Jayawardena, Clarissa Fenech, Mark Zammit Vincenti

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Introduction: Biliary colic, acute cholecystitis, and gallstone pancreatitis are some of the most common surgical presentations at Gozo General Hospital (GGH). National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) guidelines advise that suitable patients with acute biliary problems should be offered a laparoscopic cholecystectomy within one week of diagnosis. There has traditionally been difficulty in achieving this mainly due to the reluctance of some surgeons to operate in the acute setting, limited, timely access to MRCP and ERCP, and organizational issues. Methodology: A retrospective study was performed involving all biliary pathology-related admissions to GGH during the two-year period of 2019 and 2020. Patients’ files and electronic case summary (ECS) were used for data collection, which included demographic data, primary diagnosis, co-morbidities, management, waiting time to surgery, length of stay, readmissions, and reason for readmissions. NICE clinical guidance 188 – Gallstone disease were used as the standard. Results: 51 patients were included in the study. The mean age was 58 years, and 35 (68.6%) were female. The main diagnoses on admission were biliary colic in 31 (60.8%), acute cholecystitis in 10 (19.6%). Others included gallstone pancreatitis in 3 (5.89%), chronic cholecystitis in 2 (3.92%), gall bladder malignancy in 4 (7.84%), and ascending cholangitis in 1 (1.97%). Management included laparoscopic cholecystectomy in 34 (66.7%); conservative in 8 (15.7%) and ERCP in 6 (11.7%). The mean waiting time for laparoscopic cholecystectomy for patients with acute cholecystitis was 74 days – range being between 3 and 146 days since the date of diagnosis. Only one patient who was diagnosed with acute cholecystitis and managed with laparoscopic cholecystectomy was done so within the 7-day time frame. Hospital re-admissions were reported in 5 patients (9.8%) due to vomiting (1), ascending cholangitis (1), and gallstone pancreatitis (3). Discussion: Guidelines were not met for patients presenting to Gozo General Hospital with acute biliary pathology. This resulted in 5 patients being re-admitted to hospital while waiting for definitive surgery. The local issues resulting in the delay to surgery need to be identified and steps are taken to facilitate the provision of urgent cholecystectomy for suitable patients.

Keywords: biliary colic, acute cholecystits, laparoscopic cholecystectomy, conservative management

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Authors: John P. O’Sullivan, Thomas M. P. Ratouis, Michael J. O’Sullivan

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As the use of geothermal energy grows internationally more effort is required to monitor and protect areas with rare and important geothermal surface features. A number of approaches are presented for developing and calibrating numerical geothermal reservoir models that are capable of accurately representing geothermal surface features. The approaches are discussed in the context of cases studies of the Rotorua geothermal system and the Orakei-korako geothermal system, both of which contain important surface features. The results show that models are able to match the available field data accurately and hence can be used as valuable tools for predicting the future response of the systems to changes in use.

Keywords: geothermal reservoir models, surface features, monitoring, TOUGH2

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Authors: Tugba Sevinc Gamsiz, Emine Koroglu, Ozcan Keskin

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Aim: Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is considered the most common chronic liver disease in the general population. The higher mortality and morbidity among NAFLD patients and lack of symptoms makes early detection and management important. In our study, we aimed to evaluate the relationship between noninvasive imaging and biochemical markers in diabetic and nondiabetic patients diagnosed with NAFLD. Materials and Methods: The study was conducted from (September 2017) to (December 2017) on adults admitted to Internal Medicine and Gastroenterology outpatient clinics with hepatic steatosis reported on ultrasound or transient elastography within the last six months that exclude patients with other liver diseases or alcohol abuse. The data were collected and analyzed retrospectively. Number cruncher statistical system (NCSS) 2007 program was used for statistical analysis. Results: 116 patients were included in this study. Diabetic patients compared to nondiabetics had significantly higher Controlled Attenuation Parameter (CAP), Liver Stiffness Measurement (LSM) and fibrosis values. Also, hypertension, hepatomegaly, high BMI, hypertriglyceridemia, hyperglycemia, high A1c, and hyperuricemia were found to be risk factors for NAFLD progression to fibrosis. Advanced fibrosis (F3, F4) was present in 18,6 % of all our patients; 35,8 % of diabetic and 5,7 % of nondiabetic patients diagnosed with hepatic steatosis. Conclusion: Transient elastography is now used in daily clinical practice as an accurate noninvasive tool during follow-up of patients with fatty liver. Early diagnosis of the stage of liver fibrosis improves the monitoring and management of patients, especially in those with metabolic syndrome criteria.

Keywords: diabetes, elastography, fatty liver, fibrosis, metabolic syndrome

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Authors: Nazim Habibov, Alena Auchynnikava, Lida Fan

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The exploration of the relationship between social trust and the support of the welfare system in transitional countries has attracted growing interests in recent decades. This study estimates the effects of interpersonal and institutional trust on the support of the welfare system in 27 countries in Eastern Europe the former Soviet Union. We estimate the data sets from the Life-in-Transition Survey 2010 and 2016 with binomial regression models. The results indicate that both interpersonal and institutional trust have positive effects on the support for the welfare system in all the three areas under investigation: helping the needy, public healthcare and public education, both in the less developed countries of the former Soviet Union and in the more developed Eastern European countries. Furthermore, the positive effects of interpersonal and institutional trust on support for helping the needy, public healthcare and public education were found to grow over time. In conclusion, this study confirms that interpersonal and institutional trusts have positive effects for the public support of the welfare system in these transitional countries under investigation, regardless of their level of development.

Keywords: central and eastern Europe, former Soviet union, international social welfare policy, comparative social welfare policy

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Authors: Jung-Hong Hong, Jing-Cen Yang, Cai-Yu Ou

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The analysis of geographic inequality heavily relies on the use of location-enabled statistical data and quantitative measures to present the spatial patterns of the selected phenomena and analyze their differences. To protect the privacy of individual instance and link to administrative units, point-based datasets are spatially aggregated to area-based statistical datasets, where only the overall status for the selected levels of spatial units is used for decision making. The partition of the spatial units thus has dominant influence on the outcomes of the analyzed results, well known as the Modifiable Areal Unit Problem (MAUP). A new spatial reference framework, the Taiwan Geographical Statistical Classification (TGSC), was recently introduced in Taiwan based on the spatial partition principles of homogeneous consideration of the number of population and households. Comparing to the outcomes of the traditional township units, TGSC provides additional levels of spatial units with finer granularity for presenting spatial phenomena and enables domain experts to select appropriate dissemination level for publishing statistical data. This paper compares the results of respectively using TGSC and township unit on the mortality data and examines the spatial characteristics of their outcomes. For the mortality data between the period of January 1^st, 2008 and December 31^st, 2010 of the Taitung County, the all-cause age-standardized death rate (ASDR) ranges from 571 to 1757 per 100,000 persons, whereas the 2^nd dissemination area (TGSC) shows greater variation, ranged from 0 to 2222 per 100,000. The finer granularity of spatial units of TGSC clearly provides better outcomes for identifying and evaluating the geographic inequality and can be further analyzed with the statistical measures from other perspectives (e.g., population, area, environment.). The management and analysis of the statistical data referring to the TGSC in this research is strongly supported by the use of Geographic Information System (GIS) technology. An integrated workflow that consists of the tasks of the processing of death certificates, the geocoding of street address, the quality assurance of geocoded results, the automatic calculation of statistic measures, the standardized encoding of measures and the geo-visualization of statistical outcomes is developed. This paper also introduces a set of auxiliary measures from a geographic distribution perspective to further examine the hidden spatial characteristics of mortality data and justify the analyzed results. With the common statistical area framework like TGSC, the preliminary results demonstrate promising potential for developing a web-based statistical service that can effectively access domain statistical data and present the analyzed outcomes in meaningful ways to avoid wrong decision making.

Keywords: mortality map, spatial patterns, statistical area, variation

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Authors: Shefaa Mansour, Hassan Arafat, Shadi Hasan

Abstract:

Management of reverse osmosis (RO) brine has become a major area of research due to the environmental concerns associated with it. This study worked on studying the feasibility of the direct contact membrane distillation (DCMD) system in the treatment of this RO brine. The system displayed great potential in terms of its flux and salt rejection, where different operating conditions such as the feed temperature, feed salinity, feed and permeate flow rates were varied. The highest flux of 16.7 LMH was reported with a salt rejection of 99.5%. Although the DCMD has displayed potential of enhanced water recovery from highly saline solutions, one of the major drawbacks associated with the operation is the fouling of the membranes which impairs the system performance. An operational run of 77 hours for the treatment of RO brine of 56,500 ppm salinity was performed in order to investigate the impact of fouling of the membrane on the overall operation of the system over long time operations. Over this time period, the flux was observed to have reduced by four times its initial flux. The fouled membrane was characterized through different techniques for the identification of the organic and inorganic foulants that have deposited on the membrane surface. The Infrared Spectroscopy method (IR) was used to identify the organic foulants where SEM images displayed the surface characteristics of the membrane. As for the inorganic foulants, they were identified using X-ray Diffraction (XRD), Ion Chromatography (IC) and Energy Dispersive Spectroscopy (EDS). The major foulants found on the surface of the membrane were inorganic salts such as sodium chloride and calcium sulfate.

Keywords: brine treatment, membrane distillation, fouling, characterization

Procedia PDF Downloads 436