Search results for: instrumental variable estimation
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 4279

Search results for: instrumental variable estimation

919 Performance of Non-Deterministic Structural Optimization Algorithms Applied to a Steel Truss Structure

Authors: Ersilio Tushaj

Abstract:

The efficient solution that satisfies the optimal condition is an important issue in the structural engineering design problem. The new codes of structural design consist in design methodology that looks after the exploitation of the total resources of the construction material. In recent years some non-deterministic or meta-heuristic structural optimization algorithms have been developed widely in the research community. These methods search the optimum condition starting from the simulation of a natural phenomenon, such as survival of the fittest, the immune system, swarm intelligence or the cooling process of molten metal through annealing. Among these techniques the most known are: the genetic algorithms, simulated annealing, evolution strategies, particle swarm optimization, tabu search, ant colony optimization, harmony search and big bang crunch optimization. In this study, five of these algorithms are applied for the optimum weight design of a steel truss structure with variable geometry but fixed topology. The design process selects optimum distances and size sections from a set of commercial steel profiles. In the formulation of the design problem are considered deflection limitations, buckling and allowable stress constraints. The approach is repeated starting from different initial populations. The design problem topology is taken from an existing steel structure. The optimization process helps the engineer to achieve good final solutions, avoiding the repetitive evaluation of alternative designs in a time consuming process. The algorithms used for the application, the results of the optimal solutions, the number of iterations and the minimal weight designs, will be reported in the paper. Based on these results, it would be estimated, the amount of the steel that could be saved by applying structural analysis combined with non-deterministic optimization methods.

Keywords: structural optimization, non-deterministic methods, truss structures, steel truss

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918 Assessment of Zinc Content in Nuts by Atomic Absorption Spectrometry Method

Authors: Katarzyna Socha, Konrad Mielcarek, Grzegorz Kangowski, Renata Markiewicz-Zukowska, Anna Puscion-Jakubik, Jolanta Soroczynska, Maria H. Borawska

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Nuts have high nutritional value. They are a good source of polyunsaturated fatty acids, dietary fiber, vitamins (B₁, B₆, E, K) and minerals: magnesium, selenium, zinc (Zn). Zn is an essential element for proper functioning and development of human organism. Due to antioxidant and anti-inflammatory properties, Zn has an influence on immunological and central nervous system. It also affects proper functioning of reproductive organs and has beneficial impact on the condition of skin, hair, and nails. The objective of this study was estimation of Zn content in edible nuts. The research material consisted of 10 types of nuts, 12 samples of each type: almonds, brazil nuts, cashews, hazelnuts, macadamia nuts, peanuts, pecans, pine nuts, pistachios, and walnuts. The samples of nuts were digested in concentrated nitric acid using microwave mineralizer (Berghof, Germany). The concentration of Zn was determined by flame atomic absorption spectrometry method with Zeeman background correction (Hitachi, Japan). The accuracy of the method was verified on certified reference material: Simulated Diet D. The statistical analysis was performed using Statistica v. 13.0 software. For comparison between the groups, t-Student test was used. The highest content of Zn was shown in pine nuts and cashews: 78.57 ± 21.9, 70.02 ± 10,2 mg/kg, respectively, significantly higher than in other types of nuts. The lowest content of Zn was found in macadamia nuts: 16.25 ± 4.1 mg/kg. The consumption of a standard 42-gram portion of almonds, brazil nuts, cashews, peanuts, pecans, and pine nuts covers the daily requirement for Zn above 15% of recommended daily allowances (RDA) for women, while in the case of men consumption all of the above types of nuts, except peanuts. Selected types of nuts can be a good source of Zn in the diet.

Keywords: atomic absorption spectrometry, microelement, nuts, zinc

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917 Climate Change Impact Due to Timber Product Imports in the UK

Authors: Juan A. Ferriz-Papi, Allan L. Nantel, Talib E. Butt

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Buildings are thought to consume about 50% of the total energy in the UK. The use stage in a building life cycle has the largest energy consumption, although different assessments are showing that the construction can equal several years of maintenance and operations. The selection of materials with lower embodied energy is very important to reduce this consumption. For this reason, timber is one adequate material due to its low embodied energy and the capacity to be used as carbon storage. The use of timber in the construction industry is very significant. Sawn wood, for example, is one of the top 5 construction materials consumed in the UK according to National Statistics. Embodied energy for building products considers the energy consumed in extraction and production stages. However, it is not the same consideration if this product is produced locally as when considering the resource produced further afield. Transport is a very relevant matter that profoundly influences in the results of embodied energy. The case of timber use in the UK is important because the balance between imports and exports is far negative, industry consuming more imported timber than produced. Nearly 80% of sawn softwood used in construction is imported. The imports-exports deficit for sawn wood accounted for more than 180 million pounds during the first four-month period of 2016. More than 85% of these imports come from Europe (83% from the EU). The aim of this study is to analyze climate change impact due to transport for timber products consumed in the UK. An approximate estimation of energy consumed and carbon emissions are calculated considering the timber product’s import origin. The results are compared to the total consumption of each product, estimating the impact of transport on the final embodied energy and carbon emissions. The analysis of these results can help deduce that one big challenge for climate change is the reduction of external dependency, with the associated improvement of internal production of timber products. A study of different types of timber products produced in the UK and abroad is developed to understand the possibilities for this country to improve sustainability and self-management. Reuse and recycle possibilities are also considered.

Keywords: embodied energy, climate change, CO2 emissions, timber, transport

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916 The Effect of Vertical Integration on Operational Performance: Evaluating Physician Employment in Hospitals

Authors: Gary Young, David Zepeda, Gilbert Nyaga

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This study investigated whether vertical integration of hospitals and physicians is associated with better care for patients with cardiac conditions. A dramatic change in the U.S. hospital industry is the integration of hospital and physicians through hospital acquisition of physician practices. Yet, there is little evidence regarding whether this form of vertical integration leads to better operational performance of hospitals. The study was conducted as an observational investigation based on a pooled, cross-sectional database. The study sample comprised over hospitals in the State of California. The time frame for the study was 2010 to 2012. The key performance measure was hospitals’ degree of compliance with performance criteria set out by the federal government for managing patients with cardiac conditions. These criteria relate to the types of clinical tests and medications that hospitals should follow for cardiac patients but hospital compliance requires the cooperation of a hospital’s physicians. Data for this measure was obtained from a federal website that presents performance scores for U.S. hospitals. The key independent variable was the percentage of cardiologists that a hospital employs (versus cardiologists who are affiliated but not employed by the hospital). Data for this measure was obtained from the State of California which requires hospitals to report financial and operation data each year including numbers of employed physicians. Other characteristics of hospitals (e.g., information technology for cardiac care, volume of cardiac patients) were also evaluated as possible complements or substitutes for physician employment by hospitals. Additional sources of data included the American Hospital Association and the U.S. Census. Empirical models were estimated with generalized estimating equations (GEE). Findings suggest that physician employment is positively associated with better hospital performance for cardiac care. However, findings also suggest that information technology is a substitute for physician employment.

Keywords: physician employment, hospitals, verical integration, cardiac care

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915 Attenuation of Endotoxin Induced Hepatotoxicity by Dexamethasone, Melatonin and Pentoxifylline in White Albino Mice: A Comparative Study

Authors: Ammara Khan

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Sepsis is characterized by an overwhelming surge of cytokines and oxidative stress to one of many factors, gram-negative bacteria commonly implicated. Despite major expansion and elaboration of sepsis pathophysiology and therapeutic approach; death rate remains very high in septic patients due to multiple organ damages including hepatotoxicity.The present study was aimed to ascertain the adequacy of three different drugs delivered separately and collectively- low dose steroid-dexamethasone (3mg/kg i.p) ,antioxidant-melatonin(10 mg/kg i.p) ,and phosphodiesterases inhibitor - pentoxifylline (75 mg/kg i.p)in endotoxin-induced hepatotoxicity in mice. Endotoxin/lipopolysaccharides induced hepatotoxicity was reproduced in mice by giving lipopolysaccharide of serotype E.Coli intraperitoneally. The preventive role was questioned by giving the experimental agent half an hour prior to LPS injection whereas the therapeutic potential of the experimental agent was searched out via post-LPS delivering. The extent of liver damage was adjudged via serum alanine aminotransferases (ALT) and aspartate aminotransferase (AST) estimation along with a histopathological examination of liver tissue. Dexamethasone is given before (Group 3) and after LPS (group 4) significantly attenuated LPS generated liver injury.Pentoxifylline generated similar results and serum ALT; AST histological alteration abated considerably (p≤ 0.05) both in animals subjected to pentoxifylline pre (Group 5) and post-treatment(Group 6). Melatonin was also prosperous in aversion (Group 7) and curation (Group 8) of LPS invoked hepatotoxicity as evident by lessening of augmented ALT (≤0.01) and AST (≤0.01) along with restoration of pathological changes in liver sections (p≤0.05). Combination therapies with dexamethasone in conjunction with melatonin (Group 9), dexamethasone together with pentoxifylline (Group 10), and pentoxifylline along with melatonin (Group 11) after LPS administration tapered LPS evoked hepatic dysfunction statistically considerably. In conclusion, both melatonin and pentoxifylline set up promising results in endotoxin-induced hepatotoxicity and can be used therapeutic adjuncts to conventional treatment strategies in sepsis-induced liver failure.

Keywords: endotoxin/lipopolysacchride, dexamethasone, hepatotoxicity, melatonin, pentoxifylline

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914 Effects of Destination Image, Perceived Value, Tourist Satisfaction and Service Quality on Destination Loyalty

Authors: Mahadzirah Mohamad, Nur Izzati Ab Ghani

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Worldwide, tourism sustained growth and remained to be one of the fast-growing sectors. Malaysia tourism industry experienced an unstable and declining pattern of international tourist arrival’s growth rate. The situation suggested that the industry was competitive and denoted the need to study factors that influence tourist loyalty. The primary purpose of this study was to develop a model that examined how destination image, perceived value, service quality and tourist satisfaction affect destination loyalty. The study was conducted at the Kuala Lumpur International Airport and Kota Kinabalu International Airport. The respondents were international tourists from United Kingdom and Australia and they were selected using simple random sampling method. A total of 337 respondents were subjected to data analysis using structural equation modelling. The study uncovered that perceived value and destination image was highly correlated and the model suggested that these constructs should be treated as one construct. The construct was labelled as overall destination image. Overall image had significant direct effect on service quality, satisfaction and loyalty. Service quality had a significant indirect effect on loyalty through satisfaction as a moderating variable. However, satisfaction had no mediating effect on the relationship between overall destination image and loyalty. The study suggested that more efforts should be focused on portraying the image of experiencing joy with many interesting natural scenic places to see whilst on a holiday to Malaysia. In addition, the destination management office should promote tourist visiting to Malaysia would enjoy quality service related to accommodation, information facilities, health, and shopping. Tourist satisfaction empirically proved to be an important construct that influenced destination loyalty. This study contributed to the extended knowledge that postulated overall image of a destination was measured by perceived value and destination image.

Keywords: destination image, destination loyalty, structural equation modelling, tourist satisfaction

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913 Numerical Modeling and Prediction of Nanoscale Transport Phenomena in Vertically Aligned Carbon Nanotube Catalyst Layers by the Lattice Boltzmann Simulation

Authors: Seungho Shin, Keunwoo Choi, Ali Akbar, Sukkee Um

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In this study, the nanoscale transport properties and catalyst utilization of vertically aligned carbon nanotube (VACNT) catalyst layers are computationally predicted by the three-dimensional lattice Boltzmann simulation based on the quasi-random nanostructural model in pursuance of fuel cell catalyst performance improvement. A series of catalyst layers are randomly generated with statistical significance at the 95% confidence level to reflect the heterogeneity of the catalyst layer nanostructures. The nanoscale gas transport phenomena inside the catalyst layers are simulated by the D3Q19 (i.e., three-dimensional, 19 velocities) lattice Boltzmann method, and the corresponding mass transport characteristics are mathematically modeled in terms of structural properties. Considering the nanoscale reactant transport phenomena, a transport-based effective catalyst utilization factor is defined and statistically analyzed to determine the structure-transport influence on catalyst utilization. The tortuosity of the reactant mass transport path of VACNT catalyst layers is directly calculated from the streaklines. Subsequently, the corresponding effective mass diffusion coefficient is statistically predicted by applying the pre-estimated tortuosity factors to the Knudsen diffusion coefficient in the VACNT catalyst layers. The statistical estimation results clearly indicate that the morphological structures of VACNT catalyst layers reduce the tortuosity of reactant mass transport path when compared to conventional catalyst layer and significantly improve consequential effective mass diffusion coefficient of VACNT catalyst layer. Furthermore, catalyst utilization of the VACNT catalyst layer is substantially improved by enhanced mass diffusion and electric current paths despite the relatively poor interconnections of the ion transport paths.

Keywords: Lattice Boltzmann method, nano transport phenomena, polymer electrolyte fuel cells, vertically aligned carbon nanotube

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912 Implementation of Integrated Multi-Channel Analysis of Surface Waves and Waveform Inversion Techniques for Seismic Hazard Estimation with Emphasis on Associated Uncertainty: A Case Study at Zafarana Wind Turbine Towers Farm, Egypt

Authors: Abd El-Aziz Khairy Abd El-Aal, Yuji Yagi, Heba Kamal

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In this study, an integrated multi-channel analysis of Surface Waves (MASW) technique is applied to explore the geotechnical parameters of subsurface layers at the Zafarana wind farm. Moreover, a seismic hazard procedure based on the extended deterministic technique is used to estimate the seismic hazard load for the investigated area. The study area includes many active fault systems along the Gulf of Suez that cause many moderate and large earthquakes. Overall, the seismic activity of the area has recently become better understood following the use of new waveform inversion methods and software to develop accurate focal mechanism solutions for recent recorded earthquakes around the studied area. These earthquakes resulted in major stress-drops in the Eastern desert and the Gulf of Suez area. These findings have helped to reshape the understanding of the seismotectonic environment of the Gulf of Suez area, which is a perplexing tectonic domain. Based on the collected new information and data, this study uses an extended deterministic approach to re-examine the seismic hazard for the Gulf of Suez region, particularly the wind turbine towers at Zafarana Wind Farm and its vicinity. Alternate seismic source and magnitude-frequency relationships were combined with various indigenous attenuation relationships, adapted within a logic tree formulation, to quantify and project the regional exposure on a set of hazard maps. We select two desired exceedance probabilities (10 and 20%) that any of the applied scenarios may exceed the largest median ground acceleration. The ground motion was calculated at 50th, 84th percentile levels.

Keywords: MASW, seismic hazard, wind turbine towers, Zafarana wind farm

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911 Marginal Productivity of Small Scale Yam and Cassava Farmers in Kogi State, Nigeria: Data Envelopment Analysis as a Complement

Authors: M. A. Ojo, O. A. Ojo, A. I. Odine, A. Ogaji

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The study examined marginal productivity analysis of small scale yam and cassava farmers in Kogi State, Nigeria. Data used for the study were obtained from primary source using a multi-stage sampling technique with structured questionnaires administered to 150 randomly selected yam and cassava farmers from three Local Government Areas of the State. Description statistics, data envelopment analysis and Cobb-Douglas production function were used to analyze the data. The DEA result on the overall technical efficiency of the farmers showed that 40% of the sampled yam and cassava farmers in the study area were operating at frontier and optimum level of production with mean technical efficiency of 1.00. This implies that 60% of the yam and cassava farmers in the study area can still improve their level of efficiency through better utilization of available resources, given the current state of technology. The results of the Cobb-Douglas analysis of factors affecting the output of yam and cassava farmers showed that labour, planting materials, fertilizer and capital inputs positively and significantly affected the output of the yam and cassava farmers in the study area. The study further revealed that yam and cassava farms in the study area operated under increasing returns to scale. This result of marginal productivity analysis further showed that relatively efficient farms were more marginally productive in resource utilization This study also shows that estimating production functions without separating the farms to efficient and inefficient farms bias the parameter values obtained from such production function. It is therefore recommended that yam and cassava farmers in the study area should form cooperative societies so as to enable them have access to productive inputs that will enable them expand. Also, since using a single equation model for production function produces a bias parameter estimates as confirmed above, farms should, therefore, be decomposed into efficient and inefficient ones before production function estimation is done.

Keywords: marginal productivity, DEA, production function, Kogi state

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910 A Prospective Randomised Observational Study of Obstructed Total Anamalous Pulmonary Venous Connection (TAPVC) Repair Patients

Authors: Sanjeev Singh

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Background: Obstructed total anomalous pulmonary venous connection (OTAPVC) typically presents with severe cardiovascular decompensation and requires urgent surgical management. Pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) is a major risk factor affecting mortality. Perioperative management focuses on providing inotropic support and managing potential pulmonary hypertensive episodes. The aim of this study was to determine the outcome of patients with high pulmonary arterial pressure (PAP) with milrinone alone and a combination of milrinone and inhaled nitric oxide (INO). Material and Methods: After the approval of the ethical committee, this single-center prospective randomized and observational study was conducted over a period of two years among eighty-six patients with obstructed TAPVC repair with severe PAH. Group-I patients received milrinone, and Group-II patients received both milrinone (after aortic cross-clamp removal) and INO during the post-operative period at the cardiac care unit (CCU). Clinical outcomes such as ventilation time, length of stay (LOS) in the CCU, LOS in the hospital, complications, and hospital mortality were compared between the two groups. Result: The average ventilation time, LOS in CCU, and LOS in hospital for group I were 96.82 ± 19.46 hours, 10.91 ± 7.53 days, and 14.46 ± 7.58 days, respectively, and for group II, it was 85.14 ± 15.79 hours, 7.28 ± 3.68 days, and 10.21 ± 3.14 days, respectively, which was statistically significantly lower for group II. Reintubation, RV dysfunction, and hospital mortality were 16.3%, 37.2%, and 6.9% in group I, and 4.8%, 14.6%, and 2.4% in group II, respectively. The P value for each variable was significant < 0.05 (except mortality). Conclusion: Preoperative obstruction is a risk factor for postoperative obstruction, as 235 patients with obstructed TAPVC had severe PAH (39.98%) in this study. Management of severe PAH with a combination of milrinone and INO had a better outcome than milrinone alone.

Keywords: inhaled nitric oxide, milrinone, pulmonary artery hypertension, total anomalous pulmonary venous connection

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909 Radiofrequency Ablation: A Technique in the Management of Low Anal Fistula

Authors: R. Suresh, C. B. Singh, A. K. Sarda

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Background: Over the decades, several surgical techniques have been developed to treat anal fistulas with variable success rates and complications. Large amount of work has been done in radiofrequency excision of the fistula for several years but no work has been done for ablating the tract. Therefore one can consider for obliteration ofanal fistula by Radiofrequency ablation (RFA). Material and Methods: A randomized controlled clinical trial was conducted at Lok Nayak Hospital, where a total of 40 patients were enrolled in the study and they were randomly assigned to Group I (fistulectomy)(n=20) and Group II (RFA) (n=20). Aim of the study was to compare the efficacy of RFA of fistula versus fistulectomy in the treatment of a low anal fistula and to evaluate RFA as an effective alternative to fistulectomy with respect to time taken for wound healing as primary outcome and post-operative pain, time taken to return to work as secondary outcomes. Patients with simple low anal fistulas, single internal and external opening, not more than two secondary tracts were included. Patients with high complex fistula, fistulas communicating with cavity, fistula due to condition like tuberculosis, Crohn's, malignancy were excluded from the study. Results: Both groups were comparable with respect to age, sex ratio, type of fistula. Themean healing time was significantly shorter in group II (41.02 days) than in group I(62.68 days).The mean operative time was significantly shorter in groupII (21.40 min) than in group I(28.50 min). The mean time taken to return to work was significantly shorter in group II(8.30 days)than in group I(12.01 days).There was no significant difference in the post operative hospital stay, mean postoperative pain score, wound infection and recurrence between the two groups. Conclusion: The patients who underwent RFA of fistula had shorter wound healing time, operative time and time taken to return to work when compared to those who underwent fistulectomy and therefore RFA shows outcome comparable to fistulectomy in the treatment of low anal fistula.

Keywords: fistulectomy, low anal fistula, radio frequency ablation, wound healing

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908 Empirical Investigations on Speed Differentiations of Traffic Flow: A Case Study on a Basic Freeway Segment of O-2 in Istanbul

Authors: Hamed Rashid Sarand, Kemal Selçuk Öğüt

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Speed is one of the fundamental variables of road traffic flow that stands as an important evaluation criterion for traffic analyses in several aspects. In particular, varieties of speed variable, such as average speed, free flow speed, optimum speed (capacity speed), acceleration/deceleration speed and so on, have been explicitly considered in the analysis of not only road safety but also road capacity. In the purpose of realizing 'road speed – maximum speed difference across lanes' and 'road flow rate – maximum speed difference across lanes' relations on freeway traffic, this study presents a case study conducted on a basic freeway segment of O-2 in Istanbul. The traffic data employed in this study have been obtained from 5 remote traffic microwave sensors operated by Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality. The study stretch is located between two successive freeway interchanges: Ümraniye and Kavacık. Daily traffic data of 4 years (2011-2014) summer months, July and August are used. The speed data are analyzed into two main flow areas such as uncongested and congested flows. In this study, the regression analyses were carried out in order to examine the relationship between maximum speed difference across lanes and road speed. These investigations were implemented at uncongested and congested flows, separately. Moreover, the relationship between maximum speed difference across lanes and road flow rate were evaluated by applying regression analyses for both uncongested and congested flows separately. It is concluded that there is the moderate relationship between maximum speed difference across lanes and road speed in 50% cases. Additionally, it is indicated that there is the moderate relationship between maximum speed difference across lanes and road flow rate in 30% cases. The maximum speed difference across lanes decreases as the road flow rate increases.

Keywords: maximum speed difference, regression analysis, remote traffic microwave sensor, speed differentiation, traffic flow

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907 Urban Retrofitting Application Based on Social-Media to Model the Malioboro Smart Central Business Design through Statistical Regression Approach

Authors: Muhammad Hardyan Prastyanto, Aisah Azhari Marwangi, Yulinda Rizky Pratiwi

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Globalization has become a driving force for the current technological developments. The presence of the Virtual Space provides opportunities for people to self-actualization through access to a wider world, quickly and easily. Cities that are part of the existence of life, witness the history of civilization over time, also has been the major object to upgrading on technological sector. A smart city is one where the government and citizenry are using the best available means, including ICT, to achieve their shared goals. This often includes economic development, environmental sustainability, and improved quality of life for citizens. Thus theory is the basis for research of this study. This study aimed to know the implementation of the Urban Retrofitting at Malioboro area based on Information and Communication Technologies. The method of this study is by reviewing the effectiveness of the E-commerce uses as a major system to identification the Malioboro Smart Central Business District. By using a significance level of 5 %, it can be concluded that addresses have a significant influence on the ratings obtained, namely regarding the location of the hotel establishment. But despite the use of the website does not have a significant influence on the rating of the hotel, using the website still has influence significantly on the rating, because the p -value (Sig.) of the variable website is not so much different from the significance level determined by the researcher. In the interpretation, if a hotel is located on the Pasar Kembang streets and not to use the website, so the hotel is likely to have a rating of the constant value which is 3.183. However, if a hotel located on the Sosrowijayan streets, so the hotel rating will be increased by 0,302. Then if a hotel has been using a website, so the hotel rating will increase by 0,264. It is possible to conclude the effectiveness of ICT’s (Website) uses and location to identification the urban retrofitting through increasing of building rating in Malioboro Central Business District.

Keywords: urban retrofitting, e-commerce, information and communication technology, statistic regression, SCBD, Malioboro

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906 Load Transfer of Steel Pipe Piles in Warming Permafrost

Authors: S. Amirhossein Tabatabaei, Abdulghader A. Aldaeef, Mohammad T. Rayhani

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As the permafrost continues to melt in the northern regions due to global warming, a soil-water mixture is left behind with drastically lower strength; a phenomenon that directly impacts the resilience of existing structures and infrastructure systems. The frozen soil-structure interaction, which in ice-poor soils is controlled by both interface shear and ice-bonding, changes its nature into a sole frictional state. Adfreeze, the controlling mechanism in frozen soil-structure interaction, diminishes as the ground temperature approaches zero. The main purpose of this paper is to capture the altered behaviour of frozen interface with respect to rising temperature, especially near melting states. A series of pull-out tests are conducted on model piles inside a cold room to study how the strength parameters are influenced by the phase change in ice-poor soils. Steel model piles, embedded in artificially frozen cohesionless soil, are subjected to both sustained pull-out forces and constant rates of displacement to observe the creep behaviour and acquire load-deformation curves, respectively. Temperature, as the main variable of interest, is increased from a lower limit of -10°C up to the point of melting. During different stages of the temperature rise, both skin deformations and temperatures are recorded at various depths along the pile shaft. Significant reduction of pullout capacity and accelerated creep behaviour is found to be the primary consequences of rising temperature. By investigating the different pull-out capacities and deformations measured during step-wise temperature change, characteristics of the transition from frozen to unfrozen soil-structure interaction are studied.

Keywords: Adfreeze, frozen soil-structure interface, ice-poor soils, pull-out capacity, warming permafrost

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905 Advantages of Neural Network Based Air Data Estimation for Unmanned Aerial Vehicles

Authors: Angelo Lerro, Manuela Battipede, Piero Gili, Alberto Brandl

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Redundancy requirements for UAV (Unmanned Aerial Vehicle) are hardly faced due to the generally restricted amount of available space and allowable weight for the aircraft systems, limiting their exploitation. Essential equipment as the Air Data, Attitude and Heading Reference Systems (ADAHRS) require several external probes to measure significant data as the Angle of Attack or the Sideslip Angle. Previous research focused on the analysis of a patented technology named Smart-ADAHRS (Smart Air Data, Attitude and Heading Reference System) as an alternative method to obtain reliable and accurate estimates of the aerodynamic angles. This solution is based on an innovative sensor fusion algorithm implementing soft computing techniques and it allows to obtain a simplified inertial and air data system reducing external devices. In fact, only one external source of dynamic and static pressures is needed. This paper focuses on the benefits which would be gained by the implementation of this system in UAV applications. A simplification of the entire ADAHRS architecture will bring to reduce the overall cost together with improved safety performance. Smart-ADAHRS has currently reached Technology Readiness Level (TRL) 6. Real flight tests took place on ultralight aircraft equipped with a suitable Flight Test Instrumentation (FTI). The output of the algorithm using the flight test measurements demonstrates the capability for this fusion algorithm to embed in a single device multiple physical and virtual sensors. Any source of dynamic and static pressure can be integrated with this system gaining a significant improvement in terms of versatility.

Keywords: aerodynamic angles, air data system, flight test, neural network, unmanned aerial vehicle, virtual sensor

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904 Prediction of Seismic Damage Using Scalar Intensity Measures Based on Integration of Spectral Values

Authors: Konstantinos G. Kostinakis, Asimina M. Athanatopoulou

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A key issue in seismic risk analysis within the context of Performance-Based Earthquake Engineering is the evaluation of the expected seismic damage of structures under a specific earthquake ground motion. The assessment of the seismic performance strongly depends on the choice of the seismic Intensity Measure (IM), which quantifies the characteristics of a ground motion that are important to the nonlinear structural response. Several conventional IMs of ground motion have been used to estimate their damage potential to structures. Yet, none of them has been proved to be able to predict adequately the seismic damage. Therefore, alternative, scalar intensity measures, which take into account not only ground motion characteristics but also structural information have been proposed. Some of these IMs are based on integration of spectral values over a range of periods, in an attempt to account for the information that the shape of the acceleration, velocity or displacement spectrum provides. The adequacy of a number of these IMs in predicting the structural damage of 3D R/C buildings is investigated in the present paper. The investigated IMs, some of which are structure specific and some are nonstructure-specific, are defined via integration of spectral values. To achieve this purpose three symmetric in plan R/C buildings are studied. The buildings are subjected to 59 bidirectional earthquake ground motions. The two horizontal accelerograms of each ground motion are applied along the structural axes. The response is determined by nonlinear time history analysis. The structural damage is expressed in terms of the maximum interstory drift as well as the overall structural damage index. The values of the aforementioned seismic damage measures are correlated with seven scalar ground motion IMs. The comparative assessment of the results revealed that the structure-specific IMs present higher correlation with the seismic damage of the three buildings. However, the adequacy of the IMs for estimation of the structural damage depends on the response parameter adopted. Furthermore, it was confirmed that the widely used spectral acceleration at the fundamental period of the structure is a good indicator of the expected earthquake damage level.

Keywords: damage measures, bidirectional excitation, spectral based IMs, R/C buildings

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903 The Relationship between Mothers’ Attachment Style, Mindful Parenting and Perception of the Child

Authors: Brigitta Szabo, Miklosi Monika

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Background/Aims: In early childhood, the context of development is the caregiver-child relationship. Maternal attachment style plays a major role in the intergenerational transmission of psychopathology. The aim of this study was to explore the relationship between the mothers’ attachment style, mindful parenting, and perception of the child. Method: Data was collected from 144 non-clinical mothers who have a child below the age of 3 years. Mothers completed self-report questionnaires, including the following scales: a demographic questionnaire, Attachment Style Questionnaire (ASQ), Interpersonal Mindfulness in Parenting Scale (IMP), and the Mothers’ Object Relations Scale (MORS-SF). K-means cluster analysis was used to identify the mothers’ attachment styles. Mediation analyses with Mothers’ Object Relations Scale (MORS-SF) positive emotions and dominance subscales as dependent variables, mothers’ attachment style (ASQ) as an independent variable, and mindful parenting (IMP) as a mediator were conducted. Results: Four attachment styles (secure, preoccupied, fearful, dismissing) were identified. The relationship between mothers’ attachment style and mindful parenting was significant (R2 = .51; F(4,139) = 36.60; p < .001). Compared to the secure attachment style as a reference group, both preoccupied and dismissing styles were related to lower levels of mindful parenting; however, this relationship was the strongest in case of fearful style. In mediation analysis the direct effects of mothers’ attachment style on the perception of the child were not significant (MORS positive emotions: R2= .29; F(5,138) = 11.22; p < .001; MORS dominance: R2= .39 F(5,138) = 17.54, p < .001). However, indirect effects through mindful parenting were significant; higher levels of mindful parenting were associated with higher levels of MORS positive emotions and lower levels of MORS dominance. Conclusions: These findings suggest that attachment styles are related to the perception of the child through mindful parenting. Mindfulness-based parenting training might be useful in case of attachment-related problems to improve the parent-child relationship.

Keywords: mindfulness, mindful parenting, attachement, perception

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902 Factors Affecting Autistic Children's Development during the Early Years in Elementary School: A Longitudinal Study in Taiwan

Authors: Huang Ying

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The present study was to investigate factors affecting children's improvement through the first two years of elementary school on a population-based sample of children with autism in Taiwan. All the children were diagnosed with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) by clinical psychologists according to DSM-IV. Children's development was assessed by the Vineland Adaptive Behavior Scales-Chinese version (VABS-C) on the first and the third grade. Children's improvement was measured by the difference between the standardized total score of the third and the first year. In Taiwan, school-age children with special-education needs will be arranged into different classes, including normal classes (NC), resource classes (RC), and special classes (SC) by the government. Therefore, type of class was one of the independent variables. Moreover, as early intervention is considered to be crucial, the earliest age when intervention begins was collected from parents. Attention was also included in the analysis. Teachers were asked to evaluate children's attention with a 3-item Likert Scale. The frequency of paying attention to the class or the task was recorded and scores were summed up. Additionally, standardized scores of the VABS-C in the first grade were used as pretest scores representing children's developmental level at the beginning of elementary school. Multiple regression was conducted with improvement as the dependent variable. Results showed that children in special classes had smaller improvement compared to those in normal or resource classes. Attention positively predicted improvement yet the effect of earliest intervention age was not significant. Furthermore, scores in the first grade negatively predicted improvement, which indicated that children with higher developmental levels would make less progress in the following years. Results were to some degree consistent with previous findings through meta-analysis that the effectiveness of conventional intervention methods lacked sufficient evidence to support.

Keywords: attention, early intervention, elementary school, special education in Taiwan

Procedia PDF Downloads 291
901 The Relationship of Fast Food Consumption Preference with Macro and Micro Nutrient Adequacy Students of SMP Negeri 5 Padang

Authors: Widari

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This study aims to determine the relationship of fast food consumption preferences with macro and micro nutrient adequacy students of SMP Negeri 5 Padang. This study used a cross sectional study conducted on 100 students of SMP Negeri 5 Padang. The variables studied were fast food preferences, nutrition adequacy macronutrients (carbohydrate, protein, fat, fiber) and micro nutrients (sodium, calcium, iron). Confounding factor in this study was the physical activity level because it was considered quite affecting food consumption of students. Data collected by using a questionnaire food recall as many as 2 x 24 hours to see the history of the respondents eat at school day and on holidays. Then, data processed using software Nutrisurvey and Microsoft Excel 2010. The analysis was performed on samples that have low and medium category on physical activity. The physical activity was not analyzed with another variable to see the strength of the relationship between independent and dependent variables. So that, do restrictions on physical activity variables in an attempt to get rid of confounding in design. Univariate and bivariate analyzes performed using SPSS 16.0 for Windows with Kolmogrov-Smirnov statistical tests, confidence level = 95% (α = 0,05). Results of univariate analysis showed that more than 70% of respondents liked fast food. On average, respondents were malnourished macro; malnourished fiber (100%), carbohydrates (72%), and protein (56%), whereas for fat, excess intake of the respondents (41%). Furthermor, many respondents who have micronutrient deficiencies; 98% for sodium, 96% for iron, and 91% for calcium. The results of the bivariate analysis showed no significant association between fast food consumption preferences with macro and micro nutrient adequacy (p > 0,05). This happens because in the fact not all students who have a preference for fast food actually eat them. To study better in the future, it is expected sampling really like and eat fast food in order to obtain better analysis results.

Keywords: fast food, nutritional adequacy, preferences, students

Procedia PDF Downloads 374
900 The Predictive Implication of Executive Function and Language in Theory of Mind Development in Preschool Age Children

Authors: Michael Luc Andre, Célia Maintenant

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Theory of mind is a milestone in child development which allows children to understand that others could have different mental states than theirs. Understanding the developmental stages of theory of mind in children leaded researchers on two Connected research problems. In one hand, the link between executive function and theory of mind, and on the other hand, the relationship of theory of mind and syntax processing. These two lines of research involved a great literature, full of important results, despite certain level of disagreement between researchers. For a long time, these two research perspectives continue to grow up separately despite research conclusion suggesting that the three variables should implicate same developmental period. Indeed, our goal was to study the relation between theory of mind, executive function, and language via a unique research question. It supposed that between executive function and language, one of the two variables could play a critical role in the relationship between theory of mind and the other variable. Thus, 112 children aged between three and six years old were recruited for completing a receptive and an expressive vocabulary task, a syntax understanding task, a theory of mind task, and three executive function tasks (inhibition, cognitive flexibility and working memory). The results showed significant correlations between performance on theory of mind task and performance on executive function domain tasks, except for cognitive flexibility task. We also found significant correlations between success on theory of mind task and performance in all language tasks. Multiple regression analysis justified only syntax and general abilities of language as possible predictors of theory of mind performance in our preschool age children sample. The results were discussed in the perspective of a great role of language abilities in theory of mind development. We also discussed possible reasons that could explain the non-significance of executive domains in predicting theory of mind performance, and the meaning of our results for the literature.

Keywords: child development, executive function, general language, syntax, theory of mind

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899 Advancement in Scour Protection with Flexible Solutions: Interpretation of Hydraulic Tests Data for Reno Mattresses in Open Channel Flow

Authors: Paolo Di Pietro, Matteo Lelli, Kinjal Parmar

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Water hazards are consistently identified as among the highest global risks in terms of impact. Riverbank protection plays a key role in flood risk management. For erosion control and scour protection, flexible solutions like gabions & mattresses are being used since quite some time now. The efficacy of erosion control systems depends both on the ability to prevent soil loss underneath, as well as to maintain their integrity under the effects of the water flow. The paper presents the results of a research carried out at the Colorado State University on the performance of double twisted wire mesh products, known as Reno Mattresses, used as soil erosion control system. Mattresses were subjected to various flow conditions on a 10m long flume where they were placed on a 0.30 m thick soil layer. The performance against erosion was evaluated by assessing the effect of the stone motion inside the mattress combined with the condition of incipient soil erosion underneath, in relationship to the mattress thickness, the filling stone properties and under variable hydraulic flow regimes. While confirming the stability obtained using a conventional design approach (commonly referred to tractive force theories), the results of the research allowed to introduce a new performance limit based on incipient soil erosion underneath the revetment. Based on the research results, the authors propose to express the shear resistance of mattresses used as soil erosion control system as a function of the size of the filling stones, their uniformity, their unit weight, the thickness of the mattress, and the presence of vertical connecting elements between the mattress lid and bottom.

Keywords: Reno Mattress, riverbank protection, hydraulics, full scale tests

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898 A Simple Approach to Establish Urban Energy Consumption Map Using the Combination of LiDAR and Thermal Image

Authors: Yu-Cheng Chen, Tzu-Ping Lin, Feng-Yi Lin, Chih-Yu Chen

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Due to the urban heat island effect caused by highly development of city, the heat stress increased in recent year rapidly. Resulting in a sharp raise of the energy used in urban area. The heat stress during summer time exacerbated the usage of air conditioning and electric equipment, which caused more energy consumption and anthropogenic heat. Therefore, an accurate and simple method to measure energy used in urban area can be helpful for the architectures and urban planners to develop better energy efficiency goals. This research applies the combination of airborne LiDAR data and thermal imager to provide an innovate method to estimate energy consumption. Owing to the high resolution of remote sensing data, the accurate current volume and total floor area and the surface temperature of building derived from LiDAR and thermal imager can be herein obtained to predict energy used. In the estimate process, the LiDAR data will be divided into four type of land cover which including building, road, vegetation, and other obstacles. In this study, the points belong to building were selected to overlay with the land use information; therefore, the energy consumption can be estimated precisely with the real value of total floor area and energy use index for different use of building. After validating with the real energy used data from the government, the result shows the higher building in high development area like commercial district will present in higher energy consumption, caused by the large quantity of total floor area and more anthropogenic heat. Furthermore, because of the surface temperature can be warm up by electric equipment used, this study also applies the thermal image of building to find the hot spots of energy used and make the estimation method more complete.

Keywords: urban heat island, urban planning, LiDAR, thermal imager, energy consumption

Procedia PDF Downloads 239
897 Extending Theory of Planned Behavior to Modelling Chronic Patients’ Acceptance of Health Information: An Information Overload Perspective

Authors: Shu-Lien Chou, Chung-Feng Liu

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Self-health management of chronic illnesses plays an important part in chronic illness treatments. However, various kinds of health information (health education materials) which government or healthcare institutions provide for patients may not achieve the expected outcome. One of the critical reasons affecting patients’ use intention could be patients’ perceived Information overload regarding the health information. This study proposed an extended model of Theory of Planned Behavior, which integrating perceived information overload as another construct to explore patients’ use intention of the health information for self-health management. The independent variables are attitude, subject norm, perceived behavior control and perceived information overload while the dependent variable is behavior intention to use the health information. The cross-sectional study used a structured questionnaire for data collection, focusing on the chronic patients with coronary artery disease (CAD), who are the potential users of the health information, in a medical center in Taiwan. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics of the basic information distribution of the questionnaire respondents, and the Partial Least Squares (PLS) structural equation model to study the reliability and construct validity for testing our hypotheses. A total of 110 patients were enrolled in this study and 106 valid questionnaires were collected. The PLS analysis result indicates that the patients’ perceived information overload of health information contributes the most critical factor influencing the behavioral intention. Subjective norm and perceived behavioral control of TPB constructs had significant effects on patients’ intentions to use health information also, whereas the attitude construct did not. This study demonstrated a comprehensive framework, which extending perceived information overload into TPB model to predict patients’ behavioral intention of using heath information. We expect that the results of this study will provide useful insights for studying health information from the perspectives of academia, governments, and healthcare providers.

Keywords: chronic patients, health information, information overload, theory of planned behavior

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896 Vibration Analysis of FGM Sandwich Panel with Cut-Outs Using Refined Higher-Order Shear Deformation Theory (HSDT) Based on Isogeometric Analysis

Authors: Lokanath Barik, Abinash Kumar Swain

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This paper presents vibration analysis of FGM sandwich structure with a complex profile governed by refined higher-order shear deformation theory (RHSDT) using isogeometric analysis (IGA). Functionally graded sandwich plates provide a wide range of applications in aerospace, defence, and aircraft industries due to their ability to distribute material functions to influence the thermo-mechanical properties as desired. In practical applications, these structures generally have intrinsic profiles, and their response to loads is significantly affected due to cut-outs. IGA is primarily a NURBS-based technique that is effective in solving higher-order differential equations due to its inherent C1 continuity imposition in solution space for a single patch. Complex structures generally require multiple patches to accurately represent the geometry, and hence, there is a loss of continuity at adjoining patch junctions. Therefore, patch coupling is desired to maintain continuity requirements throughout the domain. In this work, a novel strong coupling approach is provided that generates a well-defined NURBS-based model while achieving continuity. The methodology is validated by free vibration analysis of sandwich plates with present literature. The results are in good agreement with the analytical solution for different plate configurations and power law indexes. Numerical examples of rectangular and annular plates are discussed with variable boundary conditions. Additionally, parametric studies are provided by varying the aspect ratio, porosity ratio and their influence on the natural frequency of the plate.

Keywords: vibration analysis, FGM sandwich structure, multipatch geometry, patch coupling, IGA

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895 Investigation of Shear Strength, and Dilative Behavior of Coarse-grained Samples Using Laboratory Test and Machine Learning Technique

Authors: Ehsan Mehryaar, Seyed Armin Motahari Tabari

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Coarse-grained soils are known and commonly used in a wide range of geotechnical projects, including high earth dams or embankments for their high shear strength. The most important engineering property of these soils is friction angle which represents the interlocking between soil particles and can be applied widely in designing and constructing these earth structures. Friction angle and dilative behavior of coarse-grained soils can be estimated from empirical correlations with in-situ testing and physical properties of the soil or measured directly in the laboratory performing direct shear or triaxial tests. Unfortunately, large-scale testing is difficult, challenging, and expensive and is not possible in most soil mechanic laboratories. So, it is common to remove the large particles and do the tests, which cannot be counted as an exact estimation of the parameters and behavior of the original soil. This paper describes a new methodology to simulate particles grading distribution of a well-graded gravel sample to a smaller scale sample as it can be tested in an ordinary direct shear apparatus to estimate the stress-strain behavior, friction angle, and dilative behavior of the original coarse-grained soil considering its confining pressure, and relative density using a machine learning method. A total number of 72 direct shear tests are performed in 6 different sizes, 3 different confining pressures, and 4 different relative densities. Multivariate Adaptive Regression Spline (MARS) technique was used to develop an equation in order to predict shear strength and dilative behavior based on the size distribution of coarse-grained soil particles. Also, an uncertainty analysis was performed in order to examine the reliability of the proposed equation.

Keywords: MARS, coarse-grained soil, shear strength, uncertainty analysis

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894 An Evaluation of the Feasibility of Several Industrial Wastes and Natural Materials as Precursors for the Production of Alkali Activated Materials

Authors: O. Alelweet, S. Pavia

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In order to face current compelling environmental problems affecting the planet, the construction industry needs to adapt. It is widely acknowledged that there is a need for durable, high-performance, low-greenhouse gas emission binders that can be used as an alternative to Portland cement (PC) to lower the environmental impact of construction. Alkali activated materials (AAMs) are considered a more sustainable alternative to PC materials. The binders of AAMs result from the reaction of an alkali metal source and a silicate powder or precursor which can be a calcium silicate or an aluminosilicate-rich material. This paper evaluates the particle size, specific surface area, chemical and mineral composition and amorphousness of silicate materials (most industrial waste locally produced in Ireland and Saudi Arabia) to develop alkali-activated binders that can replace PC resources in specific applications. These include recycled ceramic brick, bauxite, illitic clay, fly ash and metallurgical slag. According to the results, the wastes are reactive and comply with building standards requirements. The study also evidenced that the reactivity of the Saudi bauxite (with significant kaolinite) can be enhanced on thermal activation; and high calcium in the slag will promote reaction; which should be possible with low alkalinity activators. The wastes evidenced variable water demands that will be taken into account for mixing with the activators. Finally, further research is proposed to further determine the reactive fraction of the clay-based precursors.

Keywords: alkali activated materials, alkali-activated binders, sustainable building materials, recycled ceramic brick, bauxite, red mud, clay, fly ash, metallurgical slags, particle size, chemical and mineral composition and amorphousness, water demand, particle density

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893 Temperature Effect on Changing of Electrical Impedance and Permittivity of Ouargla (Algeria) Dunes Sand at Different Frequencies

Authors: Naamane Remita, Mohammed laïd Mechri, Nouredine Zekri, Smaïl Chihi

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The goal of this study is the estimation real and imaginary components of both electrical impedance and permittivity z', z'' and ε', ε'' respectively, in Ouargla dunes sand at different temperatures and different frequencies, with alternating current (AC) equal to 1 volt, using the impedance spectroscopy (IS). This method is simple and non-destructive. the results can frequently be correlated with a number of physical properties, dielectric properties and the impacts of the composition on the electrical conductivity of solids. The experimental results revealed that the real part of impedance is higher at higher temperature in the lower frequency region and gradually decreases with increasing frequency. As for the high frequencies, all the values of the real part of the impedance were positive. But at low frequency the values of the imaginary part were positive at all temperatures except for 1200 degrees which were negative. As for the medium frequencies, the reactance values were negative at temperatures 25, 400, 200 and 600 degrees, and then became positive at the rest of the temperatures. At high frequencies of the order of MHz, the values of the imaginary part of the electrical impedance were in contrast to what we recorded for the middle frequencies. The results showed that the electrical permittivity decreases with increasing frequency, at low frequency we recorded permittivity values of 10+ 11, and at medium frequencies it was 10+ 07, while at high frequencies it was 10+ 02. The values of the real part of the electrical permittivity were taken large values at the temperatures of 200 and 600 degrees Celsius and at the lowest frequency, while the smallest value for the permittivity was recorded at the temperature of 400 degrees Celsius at the highest frequency. The results showed that there are large values of the imaginary part of the electrical permittivity at the lowest frequency and then it starts decreasing as the latter increases (the higher the frequency the lower the values of the imaginary part of the electrical permittivity). The character of electrical impedance variation indicated an opportunity to realize the polarization of Ouargla dunes sand and acquaintance if this compound consumes or produces energy. It’s also possible to know the satisfactory of equivalent electric circuit, whether it’s miles induction or capacitance.

Keywords: electrical impedance, electrical permittivity, temperature, impedance spectroscopy, dunes sand ouargla

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892 Rainfall Estimation over Northern Tunisia by Combining Meteosat Second Generation Cloud Top Temperature and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Microwave Imager Rain Rates

Authors: Saoussen Dhib, Chris M. Mannaerts, Zoubeida Bargaoui, Ben H. P. Maathuis, Petra Budde

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In this study, a new method to delineate rain areas in northern Tunisia is presented. The proposed approach is based on the blending of the geostationary Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) infrared channel (IR) with the low-earth orbiting passive Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI). To blend this two products, we need to apply two main steps. Firstly, we have to identify the rainy pixels. This step is achieved based on a classification using MSG channel IR 10.8 and the water vapor WV 0.62, applying a threshold on the temperature difference of less than 11 Kelvin which is an approximation of the clouds that have a high likelihood of precipitation. The second step consists on fitting the relation between IR cloud top temperature with the TMI rain rates. The correlation coefficient of these two variables has a negative tendency, meaning that with decreasing temperature there is an increase in rainfall intensity. The fitting equation will be applied for the whole day of MSG 15 minutes interval images which will be summed. To validate this combined product, daily extreme rainfall events occurred during the period 2007-2009 were selected, using a threshold criterion for large rainfall depth (> 50 mm/day) occurring at least at one rainfall station. Inverse distance interpolation method was applied to generate rainfall maps for the drier summer season (from May to October) and the wet winter season (from November to April). The evaluation results of the estimated rainfall combining MSG and TMI was very encouraging where all the events were detected rainy and the correlation coefficients were much better than previous evaluated products over the study area such as MSGMPE and PERSIANN products. The combined product showed a better performance during wet season. We notice also an overestimation of the maximal estimated rain for many events.

Keywords: combination, extreme, rainfall, TMI-MSG, Tunisia

Procedia PDF Downloads 176
891 Modelling Causal Effects from Complex Longitudinal Data via Point Effects of Treatments

Authors: Xiaoqin Wang, Li Yin

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Background and purpose: In many practices, one estimates causal effects arising from a complex stochastic process, where a sequence of treatments are assigned to influence a certain outcome of interest, and there exist time-dependent covariates between treatments. When covariates are plentiful and/or continuous, statistical modeling is needed to reduce the huge dimensionality of the problem and allow for the estimation of causal effects. Recently, Wang and Yin (Annals of statistics, 2020) derived a new general formula, which expresses these causal effects in terms of the point effects of treatments in single-point causal inference. As a result, it is possible to conduct the modeling via point effects. The purpose of the work is to study the modeling of these causal effects via point effects. Challenges and solutions: The time-dependent covariates often have influences from earlier treatments as well as on subsequent treatments. Consequently, the standard parameters – i.e., the mean of the outcome given all treatments and covariates-- are essentially all different (null paradox). Furthermore, the dimension of the parameters is huge (curse of dimensionality). Therefore, it can be difficult to conduct the modeling in terms of standard parameters. Instead of standard parameters, we have use point effects of treatments to develop likelihood-based parametric approach to the modeling of these causal effects and are able to model the causal effects of a sequence of treatments by modeling a small number of point effects of individual treatment Achievements: We are able to conduct the modeling of the causal effects from a sequence of treatments in the familiar framework of single-point causal inference. The simulation shows that our method achieves not only an unbiased estimate for the causal effect but also the nominal level of type I error and a low level of type II error for the hypothesis testing. We have applied this method to a longitudinal study of COVID-19 mortality among Scandinavian countries and found that the Swedish approach performed far worse than the other countries' approach for COVID-19 mortality and the poor performance was largely due to its early measure during the initial period of the pandemic.

Keywords: causal effect, point effect, statistical modelling, sequential causal inference

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890 Creation of Computerized Benchmarks to Facilitate Preparedness for Biological Events

Authors: B. Adini, M. Oren

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Introduction: Communicable diseases and pandemics pose a growing threat to the well-being of the global population. A vital component of protecting the public health is the creation and sustenance of a continuous preparedness for such hazards. A joint Israeli-German task force was deployed in order to develop an advanced tool for self-evaluation of emergency preparedness for variable types of biological threats. Methods: Based on a comprehensive literature review and interviews with leading content experts, an evaluation tool was developed based on quantitative and qualitative parameters and indicators. A modified Delphi process was used to achieve consensus among over 225 experts from both Germany and Israel concerning items to be included in the evaluation tool. Validity and applicability of the tool for medical institutions was examined in a series of simulation and field exercises. Results: Over 115 German and Israeli experts reviewed and examined the proposed parameters as part of the modified Delphi cycles. A consensus of over 75% of experts was attained for 183 out of 188 items. The relative importance of each parameter was rated as part of the Delphi process, in order to define its impact on the overall emergency preparedness. The parameters were integrated in computerized web-based software that enables to calculate scores of emergency preparedness for biological events. Conclusions: The parameters developed in the joint German-Israeli project serve as benchmarks that delineate actions to be implemented in order to create and maintain an ongoing preparedness for biological events. The computerized evaluation tool enables to continuously monitor the level of readiness and thus strengths and gaps can be identified and corrected appropriately. Adoption of such a tool is recommended as an integral component of quality assurance of public health and safety.

Keywords: biological events, emergency preparedness, bioterrorism, natural biological events

Procedia PDF Downloads 425