Search results for: game predictions

Authors: Sakshi Dhumale, Madhushree C., Amba Shetty

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The effect of station density on the geostatistical prediction of groundwater levels is of critical importance to ensure accurate and reliable predictions. Monitoring station density directly impacts the accuracy and reliability of geostatistical predictions by influencing the model's ability to capture localized variations and small-scale features in groundwater levels. This is particularly crucial in regions with complex hydrogeological conditions and significant spatial heterogeneity. Insufficient station density can result in larger prediction uncertainties, as the model may struggle to adequately represent the spatial variability and correlation patterns of the data. On the other hand, an optimal distribution of monitoring stations enables effective coverage of the study area and captures the spatial variability of groundwater levels more comprehensively. In this study, we investigate the effect of station density on the predictive performance of groundwater levels using the geostatistical technique of Ordinary Kriging. The research utilizes groundwater level data collected from 121 observation wells within the semi-arid Berambadi watershed, gathered over a six-year period (2010-2015) from the Indian Institute of Science (IISc), Bengaluru. The dataset is partitioned into seven subsets representing varying sampling densities, ranging from 15% (12 wells) to 100% (121 wells) of the total well network. The results obtained from different monitoring networks are compared against the existing groundwater monitoring network established by the Central Ground Water Board (CGWB). The findings of this study demonstrate that higher station densities significantly enhance the accuracy of geostatistical predictions for groundwater levels. The increased number of monitoring stations enables improved interpolation accuracy and captures finer-scale variations in groundwater levels. These results shed light on the relationship between station density and the geostatistical prediction of groundwater levels, emphasizing the importance of appropriate station densities to ensure accurate and reliable predictions. The insights gained from this study have practical implications for designing and optimizing monitoring networks, facilitating effective groundwater level assessments, and enabling sustainable management of groundwater resources.

Keywords: station density, geostatistical prediction, groundwater levels, monitoring networks, interpolation accuracy, spatial variability

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Authors: Max Neu

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A large variety of studies on the utilization of games in classroom settings promote positive effects on students motivation for learning. Still, most of those studies rarely can give any specifics about the factors that might lead to changes in students motivation. The undertaken study has been conducted in tandem with the development of a highly classroom-optimized serious game, with the intent of providing a subjectively positive initial contact with the subject of political participation and to enable the development of personal motivation towards further engagement with the topic. The goal of this explorative study was to Identify the factors that influence students motivation towards the subject when serious games are being used in classroom education. Therefor, students that have been exposed to a set of classes in which a classroom optimized serious game has been used. Afterwards, a selection of those have been questioned in guided interviews that have been evaluated through Qualitative Content Analysis. The study indicates that at least 23 factors in the categories, mechanics, content and context potentially influence students motivation to engage with the classes subject. The conclusions are of great value for the further production of classroom games as well as curricula involving digital games in general.

Keywords: formal education, games in classroom, motivation, political education

Procedia PDF Downloads 109

Authors: Ran Yue, Zhejing Li

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Context: The context of this study is the field of Digital Basketball Sports Games (DBSG). The existing DBSGs often prioritize competitiveness and confrontation, neglecting the narrative and progressive expression, especially from a female standpoint. This study aims to address this gap by analyzing existing DBSGs and proposing a comprehensive framework tailored to meet the needs and desires of women in basketball. Research Aim: The aim of this research is to examine the narrative perspectives of women in basketball and understand their desires and expectations within the sport. It also seeks to investigate methods to seamlessly integrate women's basketball stories into gameplay, addressing their specific needs and expectations. Additionally, the study aims to develop a digital basketball sports game framework that combines narrative richness and entertainment, with a focus on the female audience. Methodology: The study utilizes affective-arousal theories as a psychological framework to explore how emotional arousal influences player engagement and responses in the digital basketball sports game. It employs in-depth case studies to examine specific instances and gain insights into the implementation and impact of narrative elements and educational features in existing DBSGs. Comparative studies are conducted to analyze different DBSGs, identifying effective strategies and shortcomings. Findings: The research findings contribute to the development of a digital basketball game framework from a female perspective. This framework enhances the completeness, diversity, and inclusivity of digital basketball sports games. By addressing the specific needs of women in basketball, including fundamental knowledge, sports skills, safety awareness, and rehabilitation training methods, the framework provides a foundational reservoir for a broader range of basketball participation. It enriches the gaming experience by enhancing enjoyment, narrative, and diversity. It also acts as a catalyst to encourage more women to engage with basketball stories, participate in the sport, persevere, and derive greater enjoyment while benefiting their physical fitness and health. Theoretical Importance: The study contributes to the existing literature by incorporating game motivation psychology theories and proposing a comprehensive framework that caters to the specific needs of women in basketball. It emphasizes the importance of considering the narrative and progressive expression in DBSGs, especially from a female perspective. The research explores affective-arousal theories and provides insights into how emotional arousal can influence player engagement and responses in digital basketball sports games. Data Collection and Analysis Procedures: The study collects data through in-depth case studies of existing DBSGs, examining specific instances to uncover insights into the implementation and impact of narrative elements and educational features. Comparative studies are conducted to contrast and analyze various DBSGs, identifying effective strategies and shortcomings. The analysis procedures involve identifying commonalities, differences, strengths, and weaknesses among the DBSGs, guiding the development of a female-centric perspective in the proposed framework. Questions Addressed: The study addresses the following questions: What are the narrative perspectives of women in basketball? How can women's basketball stories be seamlessly integrated into gameplay? What are the specific needs and expectations of women in basketball? What effective strategies and shortcomings exist in current DBSGs? How can a digital basketball game framework be developed to cater to the female audience? Conclusion: In conclusion, this study contributes to the field of DBSGs by proposing a comprehensive digital basketball game framework from a female perspective. The framework enhances the inclusivity, diversity, and enjoyment of DBSGs by addressing the specific needs and desires of women in basketball. It provides a foundation for a broader range of basketball participation, enriching the gaming experience and benefiting women's physical fitness and health. The research, using affective-arousal theories and in-depth case studies, provides valuable insights into the implementation and impact of narrative elements and educational features in existing DBSGs, guiding the development of the proposed female-centric framework.

Keywords: digital basketball game, game framework, female perspective, game narratives

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Authors: Jaeyoung Lee, Minji Je

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Objectives: The adolescents not attending school are named out-of-school adolescents. They are more vulnerable to health management and are likely to be exposed to a number of risk factors. This study was conducted to investigate the problem behavior of out-of-school adolescents and analyze the difference caused by gender. Methods: In this study, the problem behaviors of out-of-school adolescents, the vulnerable class, were defined in 8 types and based on this definition, the survey on run away from home, drop out, prostitution, violence, internet game addiction, theft, drug addiction, and smoking was conducted. The study was conducted in a total of 507 out-of-school adolescents, including 342 males, and 165 females. The type, frequency and start time of the 8 problem behaviors were identified. The collected data were analyzed with chi-square test and t-test using SPSS statistics 22. Results: Among the problem behaviors of the subjects, violence ( =17.41, p < .001), internet game addiction ( =16.14, p < .001), theft ( =22.48, p < .001), drug addiction ( =4.17, p=.041), and smoking ( =3.90, p=.048) were more significantly high in male out-of-school adolescents than female out-of-school adolescents. In addition, the frequency of the problem behavior was higher in male out-of-school adolescents with statistical significance than in female out-of-school adolescents (t=5.08, p= < .001). In terms of the start time of the problem behavior, only internet game addiction was higher in male out-of-school adolescents with the statistical significance than in female out-of-school adolescents ( =6.22, p=.032). No statistically significant difference was found in other problem behaviors (p > .05). Conclusions: In this study, it was found that gender difference in problem behaviors of out-of-school adolescents exists, and its frequency and difference of types were identified. When the social countermeasures were provided for those adolescents, a distinguished approach is required depending on the patterns of problem behavior and gender. When preparing policy alternatives and interventions for out-of-school adolescents, it is required to reflect the results of this study.

Keywords: addictive behavior, adolescent, gender, problem behavior

Procedia PDF Downloads 205

Authors: Kadir Özsoy

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Creating a moderately competitive learning environment is believed to have positive effects on student interest and motivation. The best way today to attract young learners to get involved in a fun, competitive learning experience is possible through mobile applications as these learners mostly rely on games and applications on their phones and tablets to have fun, communicate, look for information and study. In this study, a mobile application called ‘QuizUp’ is used to create a specific game topic for elementary level students at Anadolu University Preparatory School. The topic is specially designed with weekly-added questions in accordance with the course syllabus. Students challenge their classmates or randomly chosen opponents to answer questions related to their course subjects. They also chat and post on the topic’s wall in English. The study aims at finding out students’ perceptions towards the use of the application as a classroom and extra-curricular activity through a survey. The study concludes that educational games boost students’ motivation, lead to increased effort, and positively change their studying habits.

Keywords: competitive learning, educational application, effort, motivation 'QuizUp', study habits

Procedia PDF Downloads 357

Authors: Yuexi Xiong, Jingwu He

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The structural components in an energy facility such as steam turbine machines are operated under high stress and elevated temperature in an endured time period and thus the creep deformation and creep rupture failure are important issues that need to be addressed in the design of such components. There are numerous creep models being used for creep analysis that have both advantages and disadvantages in terms of accuracy and efficiency. The Isochronous Creep Analysis is one of the simplified approaches in which a full-time dependent creep analysis is avoided and instead an elastic-plastic analysis is conducted at each time point. This approach has been established based on the rupture dependent creep equations using the well-known Larson-Miller parameter. In this paper, some fundamental aspects of creep deformation and the rupture dependent creep models are reviewed and the analysis procedures using isochronous creep curves are discussed. Four rupture failure criteria are examined from creep fundamental perspectives including criteria of Stress Damage, Strain Damage, Strain Rate Damage, and Strain Capability. The accuracy of these criteria in predicting creep life is discussed and applications of the creep analysis procedures and failure predictions of simple models will be presented. In addition, a new failure criterion is proposed to improve the accuracy and effectiveness of the existing criteria. Comparisons are made between the existing criteria and the new one using several examples materials. Both strain increase and stress relaxation form a full picture of the creep behaviour of a material under high temperature in an endured time period. It is important to bear this in mind when dealing with creep problems. Accordingly there are two sets of rupture dependent creep equations. While the rupture strength vs LMP equation shows how the rupture time depends on the stress level under load controlled condition, the strain rate vs rupture time equation reflects how the rupture time behaves under strain-controlled condition. Among the four existing failure criteria for rupture life predictions, the Stress Damage and Strain Damage Criteria provide the most conservative and non-conservative predictions, respectively. The Strain Rate and Strain Capability Criteria provide predictions in between that are believed to be more accurate because the strain rate and strain capability are more determined quantities than stress to reflect the creep rupture behaviour. A modified Strain Capability Criterion is proposed making use of the two sets of creep equations and therefore is considered to be more accurate than the original Strain Capability Criterion.

Keywords: creep analysis, high temperature mateials, rapture evalution, steam turbine machines

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Authors: Mohammad Alshawaf, Rahmat Poudineh, Nawaf Alhajeri

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The power generated from photovoltaic (PV) modules is non-dispatchable on demand due to the stochastic nature of solar radiation. The random variations in the measured intensity of solar irradiance are due to clouds and, in the case of arid regions, dust storms which decrease the intensity of intensity of solar irradiance. Therefore, modeling PV power output using average, maximum, or minimum solar irradiance values is inefficient to predict power generation reliably. The overall objective of this paper is to predict the power output of PV modules using Monte Carlo approach based the weather and solar conditions measured in Kuwait. Given the 250 Wp PV module used in study, the average daily power output is 1021 Wh/day. The maximum power was generated in April and the minimum power was generated in January 1187 Wh/day and 823 Wh/day respectively. The certainty of the daily predictions varies seasonally and according to the weather conditions. The output predictions were far more certain in the summer months, for example, the 80% certainty range for August is 89 Wh/day, whereas the 80% certainty range for April is 250 Wh/day.

Keywords: Monte Carlo, solar energy, variable renewable energy, Kuwait

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Authors: Samir K. Safi

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The purpose of this study was to compare the performance of two types of models, namely MIDAS and MIDAS-GARCH, in predicting the volatility of crude oil returns based on gold price returns and the COVID-19 pandemic. The study aimed to identify which model would provide more accurate short-term and long-term predictions and which model would perform better in handling the increased volatility caused by the pandemic. The findings of the study revealed that the MIDAS model performed better in predicting short-term and long-term volatility before the pandemic, while the MIDAS-GARCH model performed significantly better in handling the increased volatility caused by the pandemic. The study highlights the importance of selecting appropriate models to handle the complexities of real-world data and shows that the choice of model can significantly impact the accuracy of predictions. The practical implications of model selection and exploring potential methodological adjustments for future research will be highlighted and discussed.

Keywords: GARCH-MIDAS, MIDAS, crude oil, gold, COVID-19, volatility

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Authors: X. Wang, T. J. Craft, H. Iacovides

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When handling the near-wall regions of turbulent flows, it is necessary to account for the viscous effects which are important over the thin near-wall layers. Low-Reynolds- number turbulence models do this by including explicit viscous and also damping terms which become active in the near-wall regions, and using very fine near-wall grids to properly resolve the steep gradients present. In order to overcome the cost associated with the low-Re turbulence models, a more advanced wall function approach has been implemented within OpenFoam and tested together with a standard log-law based wall function in the prediction of flows which involve 2-D shock wave/turbulent boundary layer interactions (SWTBLIs). On the whole, from the calculation of the impinging shock interaction, the three turbulence modelling strategies, the Lauder-Sharma k-ε model with Yap correction (LS), the high-Re k-ε model with standard wall function (SWF) and analytical wall function (AWF), display good predictions of wall-pressure. However, the SWF approach tends to underestimate the tendency of the flow to separate as a result of the SWTBLI. The analytical wall function, on the other hand, is able to reproduce the shock-induced flow separation and returns predictions similar to those of the low-Re model, using a much coarser mesh.

Keywords: SWTBLIs, skin-friction, turbulence modeling, wall function

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Authors: Yeoju Chung

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Adolescents internet and smartphone addiction are increasing in Korea. But differences between internet addiction and smartphone addiction have been researched in these days. The main objective of this article is to explore the presence of clusters within a sample of adolescents based on dimensions associated with addiction and internet usage needs. The sample consists of 617 adolescents in the 14-19 year age group who were recruited in Korea A cluster analysis identified four groups of participants: internet overuse(IO), smartphone overuse(SO), both overuse(B) and normal(N) use group. MANOVA analysis based on internet usage showed that there are differences among four groups in internet usage needs. IO has higher cyber self-seeking needs and emotion and thought expression needs than SO. SO has higher real relationship and life needs with cyberworld than IO, B, and N. B has the highest cyber self-seeking needs and emotion and thought expression needs, however, game fun seeking needs is the highest in IO. These results support that IO seeks game fun needs, SO seeks real relationship and life needs, and B seeks cyber self and expression in cyberworld.

Keywords: addiction, internet, needs, smartphone

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Authors: Santiago Moll Lopez, Erica Vega Fleitas, Dolors Rosello Ferragud, Luis Manuel Sanchez Ruiz, Jose Antonio Moraño Fernandez

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Game-based learning (GBL) is becoming popular in education. Learning through games offers students a motivating experience related to the social aspect of games. Among the significant positive outcomes are promoting positive emotions and collaboration, improving the assimilation of concepts, and creating an attractive and dynamic environment standout. This work presents a study of the design and implementation of games created with RPG Maker MZ software with a Sci-Fi storytelling environment for developing specific and transversal skills in a Mathematics subject at the Beng in Aerospace Engineering. Games were applied during regular classes and as a part of a Flip-Teaching methodology to increase the motivation and the assimilation of mathematical concepts in an engaging way. The key features of the games were the introduction of avatar design and the promotion of collaboration among students. Students' opinions and grades obtained in the activities and exams showed increased motivation and a significant improvement in their performance compared with other groups or past students' performances.

Keywords: game-based learning, rol games, mathematics, science fiction

Procedia PDF Downloads 95

Authors: F. Saccucci

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Gamification has now started to take root in the post-secondary classroom. Educators have learned much about gamification to date but there is still a great deal to learn. One definition of gamification is the ability to engage post-secondary students with games that are fun and correlate to class room curriculum. There is no shortage of literature illustrating the advantages of gamification in the class room. This study is an extension of similar thought as well as an extension of a previous study where in class testing proved with the used of paired T-test that gamification did significantly improve the students’ understanding of subject material. Gamification itself in the class room can range from high end computer simulated software to paper based games of which both have advantages and disadvantages. This analysis used a paper based game to highlight certain qualitative advantages of gamification. The paper based game in this analysis was inexpensive, required low preparation time for the faculty member and consumed approximately 20 minutes of class room time. Data for the study was collected through in class student feedback surveys and narrative from the faculty member moderating the game. Students were randomly selected into groups of four. Qualitative advantages identified in this analysis included: 1. Students had a chance to meet, connect and know other students. 2. Students enjoyed the gamification process given there was a sense of fun and competition. 3. The post assessment that followed the simulation game was not part of their grade calculation therefore it was an opportunity to participate in a low risk activity whereby students could subsequently self-assess their understanding of the subject material. 4. In the view of the student, content knowledge did increase after the gamification process. These qualitative advantages identified in this analysis contribute to the argument that there should be an attempt to use gamification in today’s post-secondary class room. The analysis also highlighted that eighty (80) percent of the respondents believe twenty minutes devoted to the gamification process was appropriate, however twenty (20) percentage of respondents believed that rather than scheduling a gamification process and its post quiz in the last week, a review for the final exam may have been more useful. An additional study to this hopes to determine if the scheduling of the gamification had any correlation to a percentage of the students not wanting to be engaged in the process. As well, the additional study hopes to determine at what incremental level of time invested in class room gamification produce no material incremental benefits to the student as well as determine if any correlation exist between respondents preferring not to have it at the end of the semester to students not believing the gamification process added to the increase of their curricular knowledge.

Keywords: gamification, inexpensive, non-quantitative advantages, post-secondary

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Authors: Elham Delzendeh, Song Wu, Mustafa Al-Adhami, Rima Alaaeddine

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Over the last 15 years, prediction of energy consumption has become a common practice and necessity at different stages of the building’s lifecycle, particularly, at the design and post-occupancy stages for planning and maintenance purposes. This is due to the ever-growing response of governments to address sustainability and reduction of CO₂ emission in the building sector. However, there is a level of uncertainty in the estimation of energy consumption in buildings. The accuracy of energy consumption predictions is directly related to the precision of the initial inputs used in the energy assessment process. In this study, multiple cases of large non-residential buildings at design, construction, and post-occupancy stages are investigated. The energy consumption process and inputs, and the actual and predicted energy consumption of the cases are analysed. The findings of this study have pointed out and evidenced various parameters that cause uncertainty in the prediction of energy consumption in buildings such as modelling, location data, and occupant behaviour. In addition, unavailability and insufficiency of energy-consumption-related inputs at different stages of the building’s lifecycle are classified and categorized. Understanding the roots of uncertainty in building energy analysis will help energy modellers and energy simulation software developers reach more accurate energy consumption predictions in buildings.

Keywords: building lifecycle, efficiency, energy analysis, energy performance, uncertainty

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Authors: Man Fung Ho, Lap So, Jiaqi Zhang, Yuheng Zhao, Huiyang Lu, Tat Shing Choi, K. Y. Michael Wong

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Nowadays, a tremendous amount of data is available in the transportation system, enabling the development of various machine learning approaches to make short-term latency predictions. A natural question is then the choice of relevant information to enable accurate predictions. Using traffic data collected from the Taiwan Freeway System, we consider the prediction of short-term latency of a freeway segment with a length of 17 km covering 5 measurement points, each collecting vehicle-by-vehicle data through the electronic toll collection system. The processed data include the past latencies of the freeway segment with different time lags, the traffic conditions of the individual segments (the accumulations, the traffic fluxes, the entrance and exit rates), the total accumulations, and the weekday latency profiles obtained by Gaussian process regression of past data. We arrive at several important conclusions about how data should be refined to obtain accurate predictions, which have implications for future system-wide latency predictions. (1) We find that the prediction of median latency is much more accurate and meaningful than the prediction of average latency, as the latter is plagued by outliers. This is verified by machine-learning prediction using XGBoost that yields a 35% improvement in the mean square error of the 5-minute averaged latencies. (2) We find that the median latency of the segment 15 minutes ago is a very good baseline for performance comparison, and we have evidence that further improvement is achieved by machine learning approaches such as XGBoost and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM). (3) By analyzing the feature importance score in XGBoost and calculating the mutual information between the inputs and the latencies to be predicted, we identify a sequence of inputs ranked in importance. It confirms that the past latencies are most informative of the predicted latencies, followed by the total accumulation, whereas inputs such as the entrance and exit rates are uninformative. It also confirms that the inputs are much less informative of the average latencies than the median latencies. (4) For predicting the latencies of segments composed of two or three sub-segments, summing up the predicted latencies of each sub-segment is more accurate than the one-step prediction of the whole segment, especially with the latency prediction of the downstream sub-segments trained to anticipate latencies several minutes ahead. The duration of the anticipation time is an increasing function of the traveling time of the upstream segment. The above findings have important implications to predicting the full set of latencies among the various locations in the freeway system.

Keywords: data refinement, machine learning, mutual information, short-term latency prediction

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Authors: Steven W. Carruthers

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The purpose of the present research is to equate two test forms as part of a study to evaluate the educational effectiveness of the ARTé: Mecenas art history learning game. The researcher applied Item Response Theory (IRT) procedures to calculate item, test, and mean-sigma equating parameters. With the sample size n=134, test parameters indicated “good” model fit but low Test Information Functions and more acute than expected equating parameters. Therefore, the researcher applied equipercentile equating and linear equating to raw scores and compared the equated form parameters and effect sizes from each method. Item scaling in IRT enables the researcher to select a subset of well-discriminating items. The mean-sigma step produces a mean-slope adjustment from the anchor items, which was used to scale the score on the new form (Form R) to the reference form (Form Q) scale. In equipercentile equating, scores are adjusted to align the proportion of scores in each quintile segment. Linear equating produces a mean-slope adjustment, which was applied to all core items on the new form. The study followed a quasi-experimental design with purposeful sampling of students enrolled in a college level art history course (n=134) and counterbalancing design to distribute both forms on the pre- and posttests. The Experimental Group (n=82) was asked to play ARTé: Mecenas online and complete Level 4 of the game within a two-week period; 37 participants completed Level 4. Over the same period, the Control Group (n=52) did not play the game. The researcher examined between group differences from post-test scores on test Form Q and Form R by full-factorial Two-Way ANOVA. The raw score analysis indicated a 1.29% direct effect of form, which was statistically non-significant but may be practically significant. The researcher repeated the between group differences analysis with all three equating methods. For the IRT mean-sigma adjusted scores, form had a direct effect of 8.39%. Mean-sigma equating with a small sample may have resulted in inaccurate equating parameters. Equipercentile equating aligned test means and standard deviations, but resultant skewness and kurtosis worsened compared to raw score parameters. Form had a 3.18% direct effect. Linear equating produced the lowest Form effect, approaching 0%. Using linearly equated scores, the researcher conducted an ANCOVA to examine the effect size in terms of prior knowledge. The between group effect size for the Control Group versus Experimental Group participants who completed the game was 14.39% with a 4.77% effect size attributed to pre-test score. Playing and completing the game increased art history knowledge, and individuals with low prior knowledge tended to gain more from pre- to post test. Ultimately, researchers should approach test equating based on their theoretical stance on Classical Test Theory and IRT and the respective  assumptions. Regardless of the approach or method, test equating requires a representative sample of sufficient size. With small sample sizes, the application of a range of equating approaches can expose item and test features for review, inform interpretation, and identify paths for improving instruments for future study.

Keywords: effectiveness, equipercentile equating, IRT, learning games, linear equating, mean-sigma equating

Procedia PDF Downloads 192

Authors: Irsa Ejaz, Siyang He, Wei Li, Naiyue Hu, Chaochen Tang, Songbo Li, Meng Li, Boubacar Diallo, Guanghui Xie, Kang Yu

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Background: Near-infrared spectroscopy (NIR) is a non-destructive, fast, and low-cost method to measure the grain quality of different cereals. Previously reported NIR model calibrations using the whole grain spectra had moderate accuracy. Improved predictions are achievable by using the spectra of whole grains, when compared with the use of spectra collected from the flour samples. However, the feasibility for determining the critical biochemicals, related to the classifications for food, feed, and fuel products are not adequately investigated. Objectives: To evaluate the feasibility of using NIRS and the influence of four sample types (whole grains, flours, hulled grain flours, and hull-less grain flours) on the prediction of chemical components to improve the grain sorting efficiency for human food, animal feed, and biofuel. Methods: NIR was applied in this study to determine the eight biochemicals in four types of sorghum samples: hulled grain flours, hull-less grain flours, whole grains, and grain flours. A total of 20 hybrids of sorghum grains were selected from the two locations in China. Followed by NIR spectral and wet-chemically measured biochemical data, partial least squares regression (PLSR) was used to construct the prediction models. Results: The results showed that sorghum grain morphology and sample format affected the prediction of biochemicals. Using NIR data of grain flours generally improved the prediction compared with the use of NIR data of whole grains. In addition, using the spectra of whole grains enabled comparable predictions, which are recommended when a non-destructive and rapid analysis is required. Compared with the hulled grain flours, hull-less grain flours allowed for improved predictions for tannin, cellulose, and hemicellulose using NIR data. Conclusion: The established PLSR models could enable food, feed, and fuel producers to efficiently evaluate a large number of samples by predicting the required biochemical components in sorghum grains without destruction.

Keywords: FT-NIR, sorghum grains, biochemical composition, food, feed, fuel, PLSR

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Authors: Anne C. Richer-De-Forges, Dominique Arrouays, Songchao Chen, Mercedes Roman Dobarco

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Most of the digital soil mapping (DSM) products rely on machine learning (ML) prediction models and/or the use or pedotransfer functions (PTF) in which calibration data come from soil analyses performed in labs. However, many other observations (often qualitative, nominal, or ordinal) could be used as proxies of lab measurements or as input data for ML of PTF predictions. DSM and ML are briefly described with some examples taken from the literature. Then, we explore the potential of an ordinal qualitative variable, i.e., the hand-feel soil texture (HFST) estimating the mineral particle distribution (PSD): % of clay (0-2µm), silt (2-50µm) and sand (50-2000µm) in 15 classes. The PSD can also be measured by lab measurements (LAST) to determine the exact proportion of these particle-sizes. However, due to cost constraints, HFST are much more numerous and spatially dense than LAST. Soil texture (ST) is a very important soil parameter to map as it is controlling many of the soil properties and functions. Therefore, comes an essential question: is it possible to use HFST as a proxy of LAST for calibration and/or validation of DSM predictions of ST? To answer this question, the first step is to compare HFST with LAST on a representative set where both information are available. This comparison was made on ca 17,400 samples representative of a French region (34,000 km2). The accuracy of HFST was assessed, and each HFST class was characterized by a probability distribution function (PDF) of its LAST values. This enables to randomly replace HFST observations by LAST values while respecting the PDF previously calculated and results in a very large increase of observations available for the calibration or validation of PTF and ML predictions. Some preliminary results are shown. First, the comparison between HFST classes and LAST analyses showed that accuracies could be considered very good when compared to other studies. The causes of some inconsistencies were explored and most of them were well explained by other soil characteristics. Then we show some examples applying these relationships and the increase of data to several issues related to DSM. The first issue is: do the PDF functions that were established enable to use HSFT class observations to improve the LAST soil texture prediction? For this objective, we replaced all HFST for topsoil by values from the PDF 100 time replicates). Results were promising for the PTF we tested (a PTF predicting soil water holding capacity). For the question related to the ML prediction of LAST soil texture on the region, we did the same kind of replacement, but we implemented a 10-fold cross-validation using points where we had LAST values. We obtained only preliminary results but they were rather promising. Then we show another example illustrating the potential of using HFST as validation data. As in numerous countries, the HFST observations are very numerous; these promising results pave the way to an important improvement of DSM products in all the countries of the world.

Keywords: digital soil mapping, improvement of digital soil mapping predictions, potential of using hand-feel soil texture, soil texture prediction

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Authors: Lin Lu, Qiang Li, Tao Cai, Pengjun Zhang

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In this study, a detailed analysis of trajectory stability and flow characteristics of a high-speed projectile during the water-entry and water-exit process has been investigated numerically. The Zwart-Gerber-Belamri (Z-G-B) cavitation model and the SST k-ω turbulence model based on the Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) method are employed. The numerical methodology is validated by comparing the experimental photograph of cavitation shape and the experimental underwater velocity with the numerical simulation results. Based on the numerical methodology, the influences of rotational speed, water-entry and water-exit angle of the projectile on the trajectory stability and flow characteristics have been carried out in detail. The variation features of projectile trajectory and total resistance have been conducted, respectively. In addition, the cavitation characteristics of water-entry and water-exit have been presented and analyzed. Results show that it may not be applicable for the water-entry and water-exit to achieve the projectile stability through the rotation of projectile. Furthermore, there ought to be a critical water-entry angle for the water-entry stability of practical projectile. The impact of water-exit angle on the trajectory stability and cavity phenomenon is not as remarkable as that of the water-entry angle.

Keywords: cavitation characteristics, high-speed projectile, numerical predictions, trajectory stability, water-entry, water-exit

Procedia PDF Downloads 135

Authors: Vishal Das, Tianyi Mao, Zhicheng Geng, Carmen Flores, Diego Pelloso, Fang Wang

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Accurate sell-in and sell-out forecasting is a ubiquitous problem in the retail industry. It is an important element of any demand planning activity. As a global food and beverage company, Nestlé has hundreds of products in each geographical location that they operate in. Each product has its sell-in and sell-out time series data, which are forecasted on a weekly and monthly scale for demand and financial planning. To address this challenge, Nestlé Chilein collaboration with Amazon Machine Learning Solutions Labhas developed their in-house solution of using machine learning models for forecasting. Similar products are combined together such that there is one model for each product category. In this way, the models learn from a larger set of data, and there are fewer models to maintain. The solution is scalable to all product categories and is developed to be flexible enough to include any new product or eliminate any existing product in a product category based on requirements. We show how we can use the machine learning development environment on Amazon Web Services (AWS) to explore a set of forecasting models and create business intelligence dashboards that can be used with the existing demand planning tools in Nestlé. We explored recent deep learning networks (DNN), which show promising results for a variety of time series forecasting problems. Specifically, we used a DeepAR autoregressive model that can group similar time series together and provide robust predictions. To further enhance the accuracy of the predictions and include domain-specific knowledge, we designed an ensemble approach using DeepAR and XGBoost regression model. As part of the ensemble approach, we interlinked the sell-out and sell-in information to ensure that a future sell-out influences the current sell-in predictions. Our approach outperforms the benchmark statistical models by more than 50%. The machine learning (ML) pipeline implemented in the cloud is currently being extended for other product categories and is getting adopted by other geomarkets.

Keywords: sell-in and sell-out forecasting, demand planning, DeepAR, retail, ensemble machine learning, time-series

Procedia PDF Downloads 273

Authors: Armin Rahimi

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The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) has been a very successful project in determining math redistribution within the Earth system. Large deformations caused by earthquakes are in the high frequency band. Unfortunately, GRACE is only capable to provide reliable estimate at the low-to-medium frequency band for the gravitational changes. In this study, we computed the gravity changes after the 2012 Mw8.6 Indian Ocean earthquake off-Sumatra using the GRACE Level-2 monthly spherical harmonic (SH) solutions released by the University of Texas Center for Space Research (UTCSR). Moreover, we calculated gravity changes using different fault models derived from teleseismic data. The model predictions showed non-negligible discrepancies in gravity changes. However, after removing high-frequency signals, using Gaussian filtering 350 km commensurable GRACE spatial resolution, the discrepancies vanished, and the spatial patterns of total gravity changes predicted from all slip models became similar at the spatial resolution attainable by GRACE observations, and predicted-gravity changes were consistent with the GRACE-detected gravity changes. Nevertheless, the fault models, in which give different slip amplitudes, proportionally lead to different amplitude in the predicted gravity changes.

Keywords: undersea earthquake, GRACE observation, gravity change, dislocation model, slip distribution

Procedia PDF Downloads 355

Authors: Joseph Mouallem, Seyed Reza Amini Niaki, Norman Chavez-Cussy, Christian Costa Milioli, Fernando Eduardo Milioli

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Sub-grid closures for filtered two-fluid models (fTFM) useful in large scale simulations (LSS) of riser flows can be derived from highly resolved simulations (HRS) with microscopic two-fluid modeling (mTFM). Accurate sub-grid closures require accurate mTFM formulations as well as accurate correlation of relevant filtered parameters to suitable independent variables. This article deals with both of those issues. The accuracy of mTFM is touched by assessing the impact of gas sub-grid turbulence over HRS filtered predictions. A gas turbulence alike effect is artificially inserted by means of a stochastic forcing procedure implemented in the physical space over the momentum conservation equation of the gas phase. The correlation issue is touched by introducing a three-filtered variable correlation analysis (three-marker analysis) performed under a variety of different macro-scale conditions typical or risers. While the more elaborated correlation procedure clearly improved accuracy, accounting for gas sub-grid turbulence had no significant impact over predictions.

Keywords: fluidization, gas-particle flow, two-fluid model, sub-grid models, filtered closures

Procedia PDF Downloads 123

Authors: Darius Phiri, Moses Chibesa, Donald Zulu, Robby Kasubika

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In Zambia, wildlife is co-managed by Zambia Wildlife Authority (ZAWA) and the local communities by sharing management responsibilities and benefits derived from harvesting wildlife resources under a benefit sharing mechanism. Although the benefit sharing mechanism has been formulated under good principles, it is still facing numerous challenges. In response to these challenges, a study on the sustainability of ZAWA benefit sharing mechanism was carried out in order to assess its potential and continuity in line with community empowerment and wildlife resources management. Systematic sampling was used with a sampling intensity of 4% to administer three types of questionnaires to community members in Mumbwa Game Management Area (GMA), ZAWA officers, and to the Ministry of Tourism, Environment and Natural Resources (MTENR) staffs. The collected data was then analysed using SPSS version 16.5. The findings indicated that many people in the GMA do not participate fully because of lacking satisfactory benefits. However, the mechanism contribute to the community well-being and can still remain sustainable especially if measures to address the current challenges are put in place.

Keywords: benefit sharing, concessions, licenses, poaching, local communities, sustainability

Procedia PDF Downloads 396

Authors: Tazeen Fatima

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Use of project management in web & software development projects is very significant. It has been observed that even with the application of effective project management, projects usually do not complete their lifecycle and fail. To minimize these failures, key performance indicators have been introduced in previous studies to counter project failures. However, there are always gaps and problems in the KPIs identified. Despite of incessant efforts at technical and managerial levels, projects still fail. There is no substantial approach to identify and avoid these failures in the very beginning of the project lifecycle. In this study, we aim to answer these research problems by analyzing the concept of predictive analytics which is a specialized technology and is very easy to use in this era of computation. Project organizations can use data gathering, compute power, and modern tools to render efficient Predictions. The research aims to identify such a predictive analytics approach. The core objective of the study was to reduce failures and introduce effective implementation of project management principles. Existing predictive analytics methodologies, tools and solution providers were also analyzed. Relevant data was gathered from projects and was analyzed via predictive techniques to make predictions well advance in time to render effective project management in web & software development industry.

Keywords: project management, predictive analytics, predictive analytics methodology, project failures

Procedia PDF Downloads 347

Authors: Javad Sarvestan, Zdenek Svoboda

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Force-time (F-T) curvature characteristics are globally referenced as the main indicators of athletic jump performance. Nevertheless, to the best of authors’ knowledge, no investigation tried to deeply study the relationship between F-T curve variables and real-game jump performance among elite volleyball players. To this end, this study was designated to investigate the association between F-T curve variables, including movement timings, force, velocity, power, rate of force development (RFD), modified reactive strength index (RSImod), and net impulse with spike jump height during real-game circumstances. Twelve young elite volleyball players performed 3 countermovement jump (CMJ) and 3 spike jump in real-game circumstances with 1-minute rest intervals to prevent fatigue. Shapiro-Wilk statistical test illustrated the normality of data distribution, and Pearson’s product correlation test portrayed a significant correlation between CMJ height and peak RFD (0.85), average RFD (r=0.81), RSImod (r=0.88) and concentric net impulse (r=0.98), and also significant correlation between spike jump height and peak RFD (0.73), average RFD (r=0.80), RSImod (r=0.62) and concentric net impulse (r=0.71). Multiple regression analysis also reported that these factors have a strong contribution in predicting of CMJ (98%) and spike jump (77%) heights. Outcomes of this study confirm that the RFD, concentric net impulse, and RSImod values could precisely monitor and track the volleyball attackers’ explosive strength, muscular stretch-shortening cycle function efficiency, and ultimate spike jump height. To this effect, volleyball coaches and trainers are advised to have an in-depth focus on their athletes’ progression or the impacts of strength trainings by observing and chasing the F-T curve variables such as RFD, net impulse, and RSImod.

Keywords: net impulse, reactive strength index, rate of force development, stretch-shortening cycle

Procedia PDF Downloads 135

Authors: Luis Fonseca, Filipe Cabral Pinto, Susana Sargento

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The increase of the world population, especially in large urban centers, has resulted in new challenges particularly with the control and optimization of public safety. Thus, in the present work, a solution is proposed for the prediction of criminal occurrences in a city based on historical data of incidents and demographic information. The entire research and implementation will be presented start with the data collection from its original source, the treatment and transformations applied to them, choice and the evaluation and implementation of the Machine Learning model up to the application layer. Classification models will be implemented to predict criminal risk for a given time interval and location. Machine Learning algorithms such as Random Forest, Neural Networks, K-Nearest Neighbors and Logistic Regression will be used to predict occurrences, and their performance will be compared according to the data processing and transformation used. The results show that the use of Machine Learning techniques helps to anticipate criminal occurrences, which contributed to the reinforcement of public security. Finally, the models were implemented on a platform that will provide an API to enable other entities to make requests for predictions in real-time. An application will also be presented where it is possible to show criminal predictions visually.

Keywords: crime prediction, machine learning, public safety, smart city

Procedia PDF Downloads 111

Authors: Cameron Hamilton, Walter Potter, Gerrit Hoogenboom, Ronald McClendon, Will Hobbs

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A model was constructed to predict the amount of solar radiation that will make contact with the surface of the earth in a given location an hour into the future. This project was supported by the Southern Company to determine at what specific times during a given day of the year solar panels could be relied upon to produce energy in sufficient quantities. Due to their ability as universal function approximators, an artificial neural network was used to estimate the nonlinear pattern of solar radiation, which utilized measurements of weather conditions collected at the Griffin, Georgia weather station as inputs. A number of network configurations and training strategies were utilized, though a multilayer perceptron with a variety of hidden nodes trained with the resilient propagation algorithm consistently yielded the most accurate predictions. In addition, a modeled DNI field and adjacent weather station data were used to bolster prediction accuracy. In later trials, the solar radiation field was preprocessed with a discrete wavelet transform with the aim of removing noise from the measurements. The current model provides predictions of solar radiation with a mean square error of 0.0042, though ongoing efforts are being made to further improve the model’s accuracy.

Keywords: artificial neural networks, resilient propagation, solar radiation, time series forecasting

Procedia PDF Downloads 384

Authors: Yi-Hsiang Pan, Ching-Hsiang Chen, Wei-Ting Hsu

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The purpose of this study was to compare the learning effects of the sports education model (SEM) to those of the traditional teaching model (TTM) in physical education classes in terms of students learning motivation, action control, learning strategies, and learning performance. A quasi-experimental design was utilized in this study, and participants included two physical educators and four classes with a total of 94 students in grades 5 and 6 of elementary schools. Two classes implemented the SEM (n=47, male=24, female=23; age=11.89, SD=0.78) and two classes implemented the TTM (n=47, male=25, female=22, age=11.77; SD=0.66). Data were collected from these participants using a self-report questionnaire (including a learning motivation scale, action control scale, and learning strategy scale) and a game performance assessment instrument, and multivariate analysis of covariance was used to conduct statistical analysis. The findings of the study revealed that the SEM was significantly better than the TTM in promoting students learning motivation, action control, learning strategies, and game performance. It was concluded that the SEM could promote the mechanics of students self-regulated learning process, and thereby improve students movement performance.

Keywords: self-regulated learning theory, learning process, curriculum model, physical education

Procedia PDF Downloads 342

Authors: Seoi Lee, Dongjoo Chin, Heewon Kim

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Gamification refers to a technique that applies game elements to non-gaming elements, such as education and exercise, to make people more engaged in these behaviors. The purpose of this study was to identify effective elements in gamification for changing human behaviors. In order to accomplish this purpose, a survey based on learning theory was developed, especially for assessing antecedents and consequences of behaviors, and 8 popular and 8 unpopular games were selected for comparison. A total of 407 adult males and females were recruited via crowdsourcing Internet marketplace and completed the survey, which consisted of 19 questions for antecedent and 14 questions for consequences. Results showed no significant differences in consequence questions between popular and unpopular games. For antecedent questions, popular games are superior to unpopular games in character customization, play type selection, a sense of belonging, patch update cycle, and influence or dominance. This study is significant in that it reveals the elements of gamification based on learning theory. Future studies need to empirically validate whether these factors affect behavioral change.

Keywords: gamification, learning theory, antecedent, consequence, behavior change, behaviorism

Procedia PDF Downloads 223

Authors: Agni Stylianou-Georgiou, Eliza Pitri

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This study is a design narrative that discusses researchers’ new learning based on changes made in pedagogies and learning opportunities in the context of a Cognitive Psychology and an Art History undergraduate course. The purpose of this study was to investigate how to encourage creative problem-based play in tertiary education engaging instructors and student-teachers in designing educational games. Course instructors modified content to encourage flexible thinking during game design problem-solving. Qualitative analyses of data sources indicated that Thinking Birds’ questions could encourage flexible thinking as instructors engaged in creative problem-based play. However, student-teachers demonstrated weakness in adopting flexible thinking during game design problem solving. Further studies of student-teachers’ shifting perspectives during different instructional design tasks would provide insights for developing the Thinking Birds’ questions as tools for creative problem solving.

Keywords: creative problem-based play, educational games, flexible thinking, tertiary education

Procedia PDF Downloads 291

Authors: Shan Li, Qiuwen Ma

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Integrated project delivery (IPD) is a project delivery method distinguished by a shared risk/rewards mechanism and multiparty agreement. IPD has drawn increasingly attention from construction industry because of its efficiency of solving adversarial problems and reliability to deliver high-performing buildings. However, some evidence showed that some project participants obtained less profit from IPD projects than the typical projects. They attributed it to the unfair IPD sharing mechanism, which resulted in additional time and cost of negotiation on the sharing fractions among project participants. The study is aimed to investigate the reward distribution by constructing a principal-agent model. Based on cooperative game theory, it is examined how to distribute the shared project rewards between client and non-client parties, and identify the sharing fractions among non-client parties. It is found that at least half of the project savings should be allocated to the non-client parties to motivate them to create more project value. Second, the client should raise his sharing fractions when the integration among project participants is efficient. In addition, the client should allocate higher sharing fractions to the non-client party who is more able. This study can help the IPD project participants make fair and motivated sharing mechanisms.

Keywords: cooperative game theory, IPD, principal agent model, sharing mechanism

Procedia PDF Downloads 292