Search results for: forecast model

Authors: Ameer A. Jebur, William Atherton, Rafid M. Alkhaddar, Edward Loffill

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Superstructures like offshore platforms, tall buildings, transition towers, skyscrapers and bridges are normally designed to resist compression, uplift and lateral forces from wind waves, negative skin friction, ship impact and other applied loads. Better understanding and the precise simulation of the response of batter piles under the action of independent uplift loads is a vital topic and an area of active research in the field of geotechnical engineering. This paper investigates the use of finite element code (FEC) to examine the behaviour of model batter piles penetrated in dense sand, subjected to pull-out pressure by means of numerical modelling. The concept of the Winkler Model (beam on elastic foundation) has been used in which the interaction between the pile embedded depth and adjacent soil in the bearing zone is simulated by nonlinear p-y curves. The analysis was conducted on different pile slenderness ratios (lc⁄d) ranging from 7.5, 15.22 and 30 respectively. In addition, the optimum batter angle for a model steel pile penetrated in dense sand has been chosen to be 20° as this is the best angle for this simulation as demonstrated by other researcher published in literature. In this numerical analysis, the soil response is idealized as elasto-plastic and the model piles are described as elastic materials for the purpose of simulation. The results revealed that the applied loads affect the pullout pile capacity as well as the lateral pile response for dense sand together with varying shear strength parameters linked to the pile critical depth. Furthermore, the pile pull-out capacity increases with increasing the pile aspect ratios.

Keywords: slenderness ratio, soil-pile interaction, winkler model (beam on elastic foundation), pull-out capacity

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Authors: Nahla Elazab, Mohamed Aboudina, Ghada Ibrahim, Hossam Fahmy, Ahmed Khalil

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This paper presents the developed memristor based demodulators for eight circular Quadrature Amplitude Modulation (QAM) and Binary Frequency Shift Keying (BFSK) operating at relatively high frequency. In our implementations, the experimental-based ‘nonlinear’ dopant drift model is adopted along with the proposed circuits providing incorporation of all known non-idealities of practically realized memristor and gaining high operation frequency. The suggested designs leverage the distinctive characteristics of the memristor device, definitely, its changeable average memristance versus the frequency, phase and amplitude of the periodic excitation input. The proposed demodulators feature small integration area, low power consumption, and easy implementation. Moreover, the proposed QAM demodulator precludes the requirement for the carrier recovery circuits. In doing so, the designs were validated by transient simulations using the nonlinear dopant drift memristor model. The simulations results show high agreement with the theory presented.

Keywords: BFSK, demodulator, high frequency memristor applications, memristor based analog circuits, nonlinear dopant drift model, QAM

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Authors: Nandini Paliwal

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Since aviation industry is one of the fastest growing sectors of the world economy, states depend on the air transport industry to maintain or stimulate economic growth. It significantly promotes and contributes to the economic well-being of every nation as well as world in general. Because of the continuous and rapid growth in civil aviation, it is inevitably leading to congested skies, flight delays and most alarmingly, a decrease in the safety of air navigation facilities. Safety is one of the most important concerns of aviation industry that has been unanimously recognised across the whole world. The available capacity of the air navigation system is not sufficient for the demand that is being generated. It has been indicated by forecast that the current growth in air traffic has the potential of causing delays in 20% of flights by 2020 unless changes are brought in the current system. Therefore, a safe, orderly and expeditious air navigation system is needed at the national and global levels, which, requires the implementation of an air traffic management (hereinafter referred as ‘ATM’) system to ensure an optimum flow of air traffic by utilising and enhancing capabilities provided by technical advances. The objective of this paper is to analyse the applicability of national regulations in case of liability arising out of air traffic management services and whether the current legal regime is sufficient to cover multilateral agreements including the Single European Sky regulations. In doing so, the paper will examine the international framework mainly the Article 28 of the Chicago Convention and its relevant annexes to determine the responsibility of states for providing air navigation services. Then, the paper will discuss the difference between the concept of responsibility and liability under the air law regime and how states might claim sovereign immunity for the functions of air traffic management. Thereafter, the paper will focus on the cross border agreements including the bilateral and multilateral agreements. In the end, the paper will address the scheme of Single European Sky and the need for an international convention dealing with the liability of air navigation service providers. The paper will conclude with some suggestions for unification of the laws at an international level dealing with liability of air navigation service providers and the requirement of enhanced co-operation among states in order to keep pace with technological advances.

Keywords: air traffic management, safety, single European sky, co-operation

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Authors: Adriana Martínez-Arias, John Josephraj Selvaraj, Luis Octavio González-Salcedo

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In the Colombian Pacific, Dorado fish (Coryphaena hippurus L.) fisheries is of great commercial interest. However, its habitat and fisheries may be affected by climatic change especially by the actual increase in sea surface temperature. Hence, it is of interest to study the dynamics of these species fishing zones. In this study, we developed Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) models to predict Catch per Unit Effort (CPUE) as an indicator of species abundance. The model was based on four oceanographic variables (Chlorophyll a, Sea Surface Temperature, Sea Level Anomaly and Bathymetry) derived from satellite data. CPUE datasets for model training and cross-validation were obtained from logbooks of commercial fishing vessel. Sea surface Temperature for Colombian Pacific were projected under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios 4.5 and 8.5 using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and CPUE maps were created. Our results indicated that an increase in sea surface temperature reduces the potential fishing zones of this species in the Colombian Pacific. We conclude that ANN is a reliable tool for simulation of climate change effects on the potential fishing zones. This research opens a future agenda for other species that have been affected by climate change.

Keywords: climatic change, artificial neural networks, dorado fish, CPUE

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Authors: Ilkay Turk Cakir, Murat Altinli, Zekeriya Uysal, Abdulkadir Senol, Olcay Bolukbasi Yalcinkaya, Ali Yilmaz

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The Higgs boson was discovered by the ATLAS and CMS experimental groups in 2012 at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC). Production and decay properties of the Higgs boson, Standard Model (SM) couplings, and limits on effective scale of the Higgs boson’s couplings with other bosons are investigated at particle colliders. Deviations from SM estimates are parametrized by effective Lagrangian terms to investigate Higgs couplings. This is a model-independent method for describing the new physics. In this study, sensitivity to neutral gauge boson anomalous couplings with the Higgs boson is investigated using the parameters of the Large Hadron electron Collider (LHeC) and the Future Circular electron-hadron Collider (FCC-eh) with a model-independent approach. By using MadGraph5_aMC@NLO multi-purpose event generator with the parameters of LHeC and FCC-eh, the bounds on the anomalous Hγγ, HγZ and HZZ couplings in e− p → e− q H process are obtained. Detector simulations are also taken into account in the calculations.

Keywords: anomalos couplings, FCC-eh, Higgs, Z boson

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Authors: B. SahaRoy, T. Medhi, S. C. Saha

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To understand the friction stir welding process, it is very important to know the nature of the material flow in and around the tool. The process is a combination of both thermal as well as mechanical work i.e it is a coupled thermo-mechanical process. Numerical simulations are very much essential in order to obtain a complete knowledge of the process as well as the physics underlying it. In the present work a model based approach is adopted in order to study material flow. A thermo-mechanical based CFD model is developed using a Finite Element package, Comsol Multiphysics. The fluid flow analysis is done. The model simultaneously predicts shear strain fields, shear strain rates and shear stress over the entire workpiece for the given conditions. The flow fields generated by the streamline plot give an idea of the material flow. The variation of dynamic viscosity, velocity field and shear strain fields with various welding parameters is studied. Finally the result obtained from the above mentioned conditions is discussed elaborately and concluded.

Keywords: AA6061-T6, CFD modelling, friction stir welding, material flow

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Authors: Chaluntorn Vichasilp, Sutee Wangtueai

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This study aims to develop a new method to detect active compounds in Thai herbs (1-deoxynojirimycin (DNJ) in mulberry leave, anthocyanin in Mao and curcumin in turmeric) using near infrared spectroscopy (NIRs). NIRs is non-destructive technique that rapid, non-chemical involved and low-cost determination. By NIRs and chemometrics technique, it was found that the DNJ prediction equation conducted with partial least square regression with cross-validation had low accuracy R2 (0.42) and SEP (31.87 mg/100g). On the other hand, the anthocyanin prediction equation showed moderate good results (R2 and SEP of 0.78 and 0.51 mg/g) with Multiplication scattering correction at wavelength of 2000-2200 nm. The high absorption could be observed at wavelength of 2047 nm and this model could be used as screening level. For curcumin prediction, the good result was obtained when applied original spectra with smoothing technique. The wavelength of 1400-2500 nm was created regression model with R2 (0.68) and SEP (0.17 mg/g). This model had high NIRs absorption at a wavelength of 1476, 1665, 1986 and 2395 nm, respectively. NIRs showed prospective technique for detection of some active compounds in Thai herbs.

Keywords: anthocyanin, curcumin, 1-deoxynojirimycin (DNJ), near infrared spectroscopy (NIRs)

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Authors: Min Wei

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The green hotel provides the products/services consistent with the full utilization of resources, protecting the ecological environment conducive to customers’ requirements and health. In order to better develop the green hospitality industry, this paper applies the game theory to analyze the intrinsic relationship and balanced interests among the stakeholders including government, hotels, and tourists during green hospitality development. Based on the hypothesis in game theory, this paper tries to construct a linkage mechanism in stakeholders, by which a theoretical basis for the interests’ balance can be realized. By using game theory and constructing a game model including tourists, hotels and government, this paper analyzes the relationship of the various stakeholders involved in the green hospitality development, and subsequently proposes the development model of green hospitality industry. On the one hand, this paper applies game theory to construct a green hotel development model and provides a theoretical basis for the interest balance of stakeholders based on theoretical perspective. On the other hand, the current development of green hospitality industry is still in initial phase, and the outcome of this research tries to guide tourists to form a green awareness and to establish the concept of green consumption for hotel development, so that green hotel products/services are provided. In addition, this paper provides a basis for decision making in the relevant government departments so that the interests of all stakeholders are promoted and cooperative game between stakeholders is established, for which the sustainable development of green hotels is achieved. The findings indicate that the process of achieving green hospitality industry development is to maximize the whole interests of stakeholders.

Keywords: green hospitality, game theory, stakeholders, development model

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Authors: Sajjad Negahban, Ruihe Wang, Baojiang Sun

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Gas-lift dual gradient drilling is a solution for deepwater drilling challenges. As well, Continuous development of drilling technology leads to increase employment of mineral oil based drilling fluids and synthetic-based drilling fluids, which have adequate characteristics such as: high rate of penetration, lubricity, shale inhibition and low toxicity. The paper discusses utilization of nitrified mineral oil base drilling for deepwater drilling and for more accurate prediction of pressure in DGD at marine riser, solubility and bubble pressure were considered in steady state hydraulic model. The Standing bubble pressure and solubility correlations, and two models which were acquired from experimental determination were applied in hydraulic model. The effect of the black oil correlations, and new solubility and bubble pressure models was evaluated on the PVT parameters such as oil formation volume factor, density, viscosity, volumetric flow rate. Eventually, the consequent simulated pressure profile due to these models was presented.

Keywords: solubility, bubble pressure, gas-lift dual gradient drilling, steady state hydraulic model

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Authors: Charine Faith H. Lagrimas, Rommel N. Galvan, Rizalinda L. de Leon

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An ongoing study, methyl laurate to be used as a refrigerant in an HVAC system, requires the crystallization kinetics of the said substance. Step-wise and normal forms of Avrami model parameters were used to describe the isothermal crystallization kinetics of methyl laurate at different temperatures from Differential Scanning Calorimetry (DSC) measurements. At 3 °C, parameters showed that methyl laurate exhibits a secondary crystallization. The primary crystallization occurred with instantaneous nuclei and spherulitic growth; followed by a secondary instantaneous nucleation with a lower growth of dimensionality, rod-like. At 4 °C to 6 °C, the exotherms from DSC implied that the system was under the isokinetic range. The kinetics behavior is the same which is instantaneous nucleation with one-dimensional growth. The differences for the isokinetic range temperatures are the activation energies (directly proportional to T) and nucleation rates (inversely proportional to T). From the images obtained during the crystallization of methyl laurate using an optical microscope, it is confirmed that the nucleation and crystal growth modes obtained from the optical microscope are consistent with the parameters from Avrami model.

Keywords: Avrami model, isothermal crystallization, lipids kinetics, methyl laurate

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Authors: Gyo Woo Lee, Man Young Kim

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A mathematical heat transfer model for the prediction of transient heating of the slab in a direct-fired walking beam type reheating furnace has been developed by considering the nongray thermal radiation with given furnace environments. The furnace is modeled as radiating nongray medium with carbon dioxide and water with five-zoned gas temperature and the furnace wall is considered as a constant temperature lower than furnace gas one. The slabs are moving with constant velocity depending on the residence time through the non-firing, charging, preheating, heating, and final soaking zones. Radiative heat flux obtained by considering the radiative heat exchange inside the furnace as well as convective one from the surrounding hot gases are introduced as boundary condition of the transient heat conduction within the slab. After validating thermal radiation model adopted in this work, thermal fields in both model and real reheating furnace are investigated in terms of radiative heat flux in the furnace and temperature inside the slab. The results show that the slab in the furnace can be more heated with higher slab emissivity and residence time.

Keywords: reheating furnace, steel slab, radiative heat transfer, WSGGM, emissivity, residence time

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Authors: Guilherme F. Guimaraes, Alfredo R. De Faria, Ronnie R. Rego, Andre L. R. D'Oliveira

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The development of methods for predicting manufacturing phenomena steadily grows due to their high potential to contribute to the component’s performance and durability. One of the most relevant phenomena in manufacturing is the residual stress state development through the manufacturing chain. In most cases, the residual stresses have their origin due to heterogenous plastifications produced by the processes. Although a few manufacturing processes have been successfully approached by numerical modeling, there is still a lack of understanding on how these processes' interactions will affect the final stress state. The objective of this work is to analyze the influence of previous stresses on the residual stress state induced by plastic deformation of a quasi-static indentation. The model consists of a simplified approach of shot peening, modeling four cases with variations in indenter size and force. This model was validated through topography, measured by optical 3D focus-variation, and residual stress, measured with the X-ray diffraction technique. The validated model was then exposed to several initial stress states, and the effect on the final residual stress was analyzed.

Keywords: plasticity, residual stress, finite element method, manufacturing

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Authors: Weikang Gong, Chunhua Li

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Dynamics plays an essential role in function exertion of proteins. Elastic network model (ENM), a harmonic potential-based and cost-effective computational method, is a valuable and efficient tool for characterizing the intrinsic dynamical properties encoded in biomacromolecule structures and has been widely used to detect the large-amplitude collective motions of proteins. Gaussian network model (GNM) and anisotropic network model (ANM) are the two often-used ENM models. In recent years, many ENM variants have been proposed. Here, we propose a small but effective modification (denoted as modified mENM) to the multiscale ENM (mENM) where fitting weights of Kirchhoff/Hessian matrixes with the least square method (LSM) is modified since it neglects the details of pairwise interactions. Then we perform its comparisons with the original mENM, traditional ENM, and parameter-free ENM (pfENM) on reproducing dynamical properties for the six representative proteins whose molecular dynamics (MD) trajectories are available in http://mmb.pcb.ub.es/MoDEL/. In the results, for B-factor prediction, mENM achieves the best performance among the four ENM models. Additionally, it is noted that with the weights of the multiscale Kirchhoff/Hessian matrixes modified, interestingly, the modified mGNM/mANM still has a much better performance than the corresponding traditional ENM and pfENM models. As to dynamical cross-correlation map (DCCM) calculation, taking the data obtained from MD trajectories as the standard, mENM performs the worst while the results produced by the modified mENM and pfENM models are close to those from MD trajectories with the latter a little better than the former. Generally, ANMs perform better than the corresponding GNMs except for the mENM. Thus, pfANM and the modified mANM, especially the former, have an excellent performance in dynamical cross-correlation calculation. Compared with GNMs (except for mGNM), the corresponding ANMs can capture quite a number of positive correlations for the residue pairs nearly largest distances apart, which is maybe due to the anisotropy consideration in ANMs. Furtherly, encouragingly the modified mANM displays the best performance in capturing the functional motional modes, followed by pfANM and traditional ANM models, while mANM fails in all the cases. This suggests that the consideration of long-range interactions is critical for ANM models to produce protein functional motions. Based on the analyses, the modified mENM is a promising method in capturing multiple dynamical characteristics encoded in protein structures. This work is helpful for strengthening the understanding of the elastic network model and provides a valuable guide for researchers to utilize the model to explore protein dynamics.

Keywords: elastic network model, ENM, multiscale ENM, molecular dynamics, parameter-free ENM, protein structure

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Authors: Saidi Abdelkrim, Hamouine Abdelmadjid, Abdellatif Megnounif

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The study of interaction between vehicles and bridge structures has become extremely important. Large deflections and vibration induced by heavy and high-speed vehicles affect significantly the safety and efficiency of bridge. The vibration of a bridge caused by passage of vehicles is one of the most imperative considerations in the design of a bridge as a common sort of transportation structure. A major goal of this study is to create a simplified model of a vehicle bridge system in MATLAB. The model will then be used to study the influence of parameters to vehicle-bridge vibrations.

Keywords: vehicle-bridge interaction, Newmark-β, MATLAB code

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Authors: Eslam Mohammed Abdelkader, Mohamed Marzouk, Tarek Zayed

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Infrastructure systems are crucial to every aspect of life on Earth. Existing Infrastructure is subjected to degradation while the demands are growing for a better infrastructure system in response to the high standards of safety, health, population growth, and environmental protection. Bridges play a crucial role in urban transportation networks. Moreover, they are subjected to high level of deterioration because of the variable traffic loading, extreme weather conditions, cycles of freeze and thaw, etc. The development of Bridge Management Systems (BMSs) has become a fundamental imperative nowadays especially in the large transportation networks due to the huge variance between the need for maintenance actions, and the available funds to perform such actions. Deterioration models represent a very important aspect for the effective use of BMSs. This paper presents a probabilistic time-based model that is capable of predicting the condition ratings of the concrete bridge decks along its service life. The deterioration process of the concrete bridge decks is modeled using semi-Markov process. One of the main challenges of the Markov Chain Decision Process (MCDP) is the construction of the transition probability matrix. Yet, the proposed model overcomes this issue by modeling the sojourn times based on some probability density functions. The sojourn times of each condition state are fitted to probability density functions based on some goodness of fit tests such as Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, Anderson Darling, and chi-squared test. The parameters of the probability density functions are obtained using maximum likelihood estimation (MLE). The condition ratings obtained from the Ministry of Transportation in Quebec (MTQ) are utilized as a database to construct the deterioration model. Finally, a comparison is conducted between the Markov Chain and semi-Markov chain to select the most feasible prediction model.

Keywords: bridge management system, bridge decks, deterioration model, Semi-Markov chain, sojourn times, maximum likelihood estimation

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Authors: Xiaobo Liu, Rakesh Mishra, Yun Zhang

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Continuous monitoring of forest canopy height with large coverage is essential for obtaining forest carbon stocks and emissions, quantifying biomass estimation, analyzing vegetation coverage, and determining biodiversity. LiDAR can be used to collect accurate woody vegetation structure such as canopy height. However, LiDAR’s coverage is usually limited because of its high cost and limited maneuverability, which constrains its use for dynamic and large area forest canopy monitoring. On the other hand, optical satellite images, like Sentinel-2, have the ability to cover large forest areas with a high repeat rate, but they do not have height information. Hence, exploring the solution of integrating LiDAR data and Sentinel-2 images to enlarge the coverage of forest canopy height prediction and increase the prediction repeat rate has been an active research topic in the environmental remote sensing community. In this study, we explore the potential of training a Random Forest Regression (RFR) model and a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) model, respectively, to develop two predictive models for predicting and validating the forest canopy height of the Acadia Forest in New Brunswick, Canada, with a 10m ground sampling distance (GSD), for the year 2018 and 2021. Two 10m airborne LiDAR-derived canopy height models, one for 2018 and one for 2021, are used as ground truth to train and validate the RFR and CNN predictive models. To evaluate the prediction performance of the trained RFR and CNN models, two new predicted canopy height maps (CHMs), one for 2018 and one for 2021, are generated using the trained RFR and CNN models and 10m Sentinel-2 images of 2018 and 2021, respectively. The two 10m predicted CHMs from Sentinel-2 images are then compared with the two 10m airborne LiDAR-derived canopy height models for accuracy assessment. The validation results show that the mean absolute error (MAE) for year 2018 of the RFR model is 2.93m, CNN model is 1.71m; while the MAE for year 2021 of the RFR model is 3.35m, and the CNN model is 3.78m. These demonstrate the feasibility of using the RFR and CNN models developed in this research for predicting large-coverage forest canopy height at 10m spatial resolution and a high revisit rate.

Keywords: remote sensing, forest canopy height, LiDAR, Sentinel-2, artificial intelligence, random forest regression, convolutional neural network

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Authors: Manjie Li, Xiangju Cheng, Yongcan Chen

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With rapid development of industrialization and urbanization, water environmental deterioration is widespread in majority of urban rivers, which seriously affects city image and life satisfaction of residents. As an emergency measure to improve water quality, clean water diversion is introduced for water environmental management. Lubao River and Southwest River, two urban rivers in typical plain tidal river network, are identified as technically and economically feasible for the application of clean water diversion. One-dimensional hydrodynamic-water quality model is developed to simulate temporal and spatial variations of water level and water quality, with satisfactory accuracy. The mathematical model after calibration is applied to investigate hydrodynamic and water quality variations in rivers as well as determine the optimum operation scheme of water diversion. Assessment system is developed for evaluation of positive and negative effects of water diversion, demonstrating the effectiveness of clean water diversion and the necessity of pollution reduction.

Keywords: assessment system, clean water diversion, hydrodynamic-water quality model, tidal river network, urban rivers, water environment improvement

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Authors: Harvard Najoan, Sarwono Sutikno, Yusep Rosmansyah

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Most enterprises are now using information technology services as their assets to support business objectives. These kinds of services are provided by the internal service provider (inside the enterprise) or external service provider (outside enterprise). To deliver quality information technology services, the service provider (which from now on will be called ‘organization’) either internal or external, must have a standard for service management system. At present, the standard that is recognized as best practice for service management system for the organization is international standard ISO/IEC 20000:2011. The most important part of this international standard is the first part or ISO/IEC 20000-1:2011-Service Management System Requirement, because it contains 22 for organization processes as a requirement to be implemented in an organizational environment in order to build, manage and deliver quality service to the customer. Assessing organization management processes is the first step to implementing ISO/IEC 20000:2011 into the organization management processes. This assessment needs Process Assessment Model (PAM) as an assessment instrument. PAM comprises two parts: Process Reference Model (PRM) and Measurement Framework (MF). PRM is built by transforming the 22 process of ISO/IEC 20000-1:2011 and MF is based on ISO/IEC 33020. This assessment instrument was designed to assess the capability of service management process in Divisi Teknologi dan Sistem Informasi (Information Systems and Technology Division) as an internal organization of PT Pos Indonesia. The result of this assessment model can be proposed to improve the capability of service management system.

Keywords: ISO/IEC 20000-1:2011, ISO/IEC 33020:2015, process assessment, process capability, service management system

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Authors: Emad Bataineh, Sara Al-Mutawa

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The primary focus of this study is to investigate and identify the perceptions of potential end users relating to factors which impact on e-services acceptance. Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) has been adopted in this study as it can be extended when technologies are introduced. This research validates the developed TAM model and evaluates the variance of the outcome variable (acceptance of e-services). Five factors were adopted as determinants of acceptance of e-services: ease of use, security, trust, web skills, and language. The study was undertaken in the General Directorate of Residency and Foreigners Affairs (GDRFA) in the UAE. A quantitative survey methodology was adopted in this study, which surveyed 466 customers who use the GDRFA e-services. The overall findings revealed that security language, web skills and support significantly affected ease of use and perceived usefulness. However, the trust doesn’t affect the ease of use. Further, ease of use significantly affects intention to use and perceived usefulness while in turn intention to use was influenced by perceived usefulness. This study offers an understanding of people’s adoption of e-government services with the help of established theories such as TAM and various factors that influence the e-government adoption with reference to UAE.

Keywords: e-government portal, e-service, usability, TAM model

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Authors: Frank Papworth, Inam Khan

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Fib’s model code 2020 has four approaches for design life verification. Historically ‘deemed to satisfy provisions have been the principal approach, but this has limited options for materials and covers. The use of an equation in fib’s model code for service life design to predict time to corrosion initiation has become increasingly popular to justify further options, but in some cases, the analysis approaches are incorrect. Even when the equations are computed using full probabilistic analysis, there are common mistakes. This paper reviews the work of recent fib commissions on implementing the service life model to assess the reliability of durability designs, including initiation and propagation periods. The paper goes on to consider the assessment of deemed to satisfy requirements in national codes and considers the influence of various options, including different steel types, various cement systems, quality of concrete and cover, on reliability achieved. As modelling is based on achieving agreed target reliability, consideration is given to how a project might determine appropriate target reliability.

Keywords: chlorides, marine, exposure, design life, reliability, modelling

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Authors: Elison Eduardo Jardim Bierhals, Claudineia Brazil, Deivid Pires, Rafael Haag, Elton Gimenez Rossini

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The objective of this work is to evaluate the results of solar radiation projections between 2006 and 2013 for the state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil. The projections are provided by the General Circulation Models (MCGs) belonging to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Phase 5 (CMIP5). In all, the results of the simulation of six models are evaluated, compared to monthly data, measured by a network of thirteen meteorological stations of the National Meteorological Institute (INMET). The performance of the models is evaluated by the Nash coefficient and the Bias. The results are presented in the form of tables, graphs and spatialization maps. The ACCESS1-0 RCP 4.5 model presented the best results for the solar radiation simulations, for the most optimistic scenario, in much of the state. The efficiency coefficients (CEF) were between 0.95 and 0.98. In the most pessimistic scenario, HADGen2-AO RCP 8.5 had the best accuracy among the analyzed models, presenting coefficients of efficiency between 0.94 and 0.98. From this validation, solar radiation projection maps were elaborated, indicating a seasonal increase of this climatic variable in some regions of the Brazilian territory, mainly in the spring.

Keywords: climate change, projections, solar radiation, validation

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Authors: Shewangizaw Tesfaye Wolde

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The current engineering community has developed a method called performance based seismic design in which we design structures based on predefined performance levels set by the parties. Since we design our structures economically for the maximum actions expected in the life of structures they go beyond their elastic limit, in need of nonlinear analysis. In this paper conventional pushover analysis (nonlinear static analysis) is used for the performance assessment of the case study Reinforced Concrete (RC) Frame building located in Addis Ababa City, Ethiopia where proposed peak ground acceleration value by RADIUS 1999 project and others is more than twice as of EBCS-8:1995 (RADIUS 1999 project) by taking critical planar frame. Fiber beam-column model is used to control material nonlinearity with tension stiffening effect. The reliability of the fiber model and validation of software outputs are checked under verification chapter. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to propose a way for structural performance assessment of existing reinforced concrete frame buildings as well as design check.

Keywords: seismic, performance, fiber model, tension stiffening, reinforced concrete

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Authors: Luis Prada, Jose Gomez, Arlex Chaves, Julio Pedraza

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Polymeric liquids have been used in the oil industry, especially at enhanced oil recovery (EOR). From the rheological point of view, polymers have the particularity of being viscoelastic liquids. One of the most common and useful models to describe that behavior is the Upper Convected Maxwell model (UCM). The main characteristic of the polymer used in EOR process is the increase in viscosity which pushes the oil outside of the reservoir. The elasticity could contribute in the drag of the oil that stays in the reservoir. Studying the elastic effect on the oil drop at the pore scale, bring an explanation if the addition of elastic force could mobilize the oil. This research explores if the contraction and expansion of the polymer in the pore scale may increase the elastic behavior of this kind of fluid. For that reason, this work simplified the pore geometry and build two simple geometries with micrometer lengths. Using source terms with the user define a function this work introduces the UCM model in the ANSYS fluent simulator with the purpose of evaluating the elastic effect of the polymer in a contraction and expansion geometry. Also, using the Eulerian multiphase model, this research considers the possibility that extra elastic force will show a deformation effect on the oil; for that reason, this work considers an oil drop on the upper wall of the geometry. Finally, all the simulations exhibit that at the pore scale conditions exist extra vortices at UCM model but is not possible to deform the oil completely and push it outside of the restrictions, also this research find the conditions for the oil displacement.

Keywords: ANSYS fluent, interfacial fluids mechanics, polymers, pore scale, viscoelasticity

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Authors: Marek Długosz, Paweł Skruch

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One of purposes of home automation systems is to provide appropriate comfort to the users by suitable air temperature control and stabilization inside the rooms. The control of temperature level is not a simple task and the basic difficulty results from the fact that accurate parameters of the object of control, that is a building, remain unknown. Whereas the structure of the model is known, the identification of model parameters is a difficult task. In this paper, a control algorithm allowing the present temperature to be reached inside the building within the specified time without the need to know accurate parameters of the building itself is presented.

Keywords: control, home automation system, wireless networking, automation engineering

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Authors: Kim Michelle Siegling, Thomas Spengler, Sebastian Herzog

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In personnel economics, the choice of a leadership style is about the question of how a supervisor should lead his or her employees in such a way that operational goals are achieved. In this paper, it is assumed that such leadership decisions are made according to the situation. Thus, the optimal or at least a permissible leadership style has to be selected from a set of several possible leadership styles. For this choice, a wide range of models has been developed in the scientific literature, from which the so-called normative decision model will be picked out and focused on. While the original model is based on univocal rules, this paper develops a fuzzy rule system.

Keywords: leadership, leadership styles, rule based systems, fuzzy logic

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Authors: V. A. Dubovsky, V. V. Savchenko, A. A. Baryskevich

Abstract:

The current trend in the automotive industry towards automatic vehicles is creating new challenges related to human factors. This occurs due to the fact that the driver is increasingly relieved of the need to be constantly involved in driving the vehicle, which can negatively impact his/her situation awareness when manual control is required, and decrease driving skills and abilities. These new problems need to be studied in order to provide road safety during the transition towards self-driving vehicles. For this purpose, it is important to develop an appropriate conceptual model of the interaction between the driver and the automated vehicle, which could serve as a theoretical basis for the development of mathematical and simulation models to explore different aspects of driver behaviour in different road situations. Well-known driver behaviour models describe the impact of different stages of the driver's cognitive process on driving performance but do not describe how the driver controls and adjusts his actions. A more complete description of the driver's cognitive process, including the evaluation of the results of his/her actions, will make it possible to more accurately model various aspects of the human factor in different road situations. This paper presents a conceptual model of the 'driver – highly automated vehicle' system based on the P.K. Anokhin's theory of functional systems, which is a theoretical framework for describing internal processes in purposeful living systems based on such notions as goal, desired and actual results of the purposeful activity. A central feature of the proposed model is a dynamic coupling mechanism between the decision-making of a driver to perform a particular action and changes of road conditions due to driver’s actions. This mechanism is based on the stage by stage evaluation of the deviations of the actual values of the driver’s action results parameters from the expected values. The overall functional structure of the highly automated vehicle in the proposed model includes a driver/vehicle/environment state analyzer to coordinate the interaction between driver and vehicle. The proposed conceptual model can be used as a framework to investigate different aspects of human factors in transitions between automated and manual driving for future improvements in driving safety, and for understanding how driver-vehicle interface must be designed for comfort and safety. A major finding of this study is the demonstration that the theory of functional systems is promising and has the potential to describe the interaction of the driver with the vehicle and the environment.

Keywords: automated vehicle, driver behavior, human factors, human-machine system

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Authors: Sandeep, A. Joshi, Kamal, Piu Dhibar, Parveen Kumar

Abstract:

In the present work strong ground motion has been simulated using a modified semi-empirical technique (MSET), with frequency dependent radiation pattern model. Joshi et al. (2014) have modified the semi-empirical technique to incorporate the modeling of strong motion generation areas (SMGAs). A frequency dependent radiation pattern model is applied to simulate high frequency ground motion more precisely. Identified SMGAs (Kurahashi and Irikura 2012) of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake (Mw 9.0) were modeled using this modified technique. Records are simulated for both frequency dependent and constant radiation pattern function. Simulated records for both cases are compared with observed records in terms of peak ground acceleration and pseudo acceleration response spectra at different stations. Comparison of simulated and observed records in terms of root mean square error suggests that the method is capable of simulating record which matches in a wide frequency range for this earthquake and bears realistic appearance in terms of shape and strong motion parameters. The results confirm the efficacy and suitability of rupture model defined by five SMGAs for the developed modified technique.

Keywords: strong ground motion, semi-empirical, strong motion generation area, frequency dependent radiation pattern, 2011 Tohoku Earthquake

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Authors: Komal Rathore, Aydin Sunol, Gita Iranipour, Luke Mulford

Abstract:

Advanced wastewater treatment plants have complex biological kinetics, time variant influent flow rates and long processing times. Due to these factors, the modeling and operational control of advanced wastewater treatment plants become complicated. However, development of a robust model for advanced wastewater treatment plants has become necessary in order to increase the efficiency of the plants, reduce energy costs and meet the discharge limits set by the government. A dynamic model was designed using the Envirosim (Canada) platform software called BioWin for several wastewater treatment plants in Hillsborough County, Florida. Proper control strategies for various parameters such as mixed liquor suspended solids, recycle activated sludge and waste activated sludge were developed for models to match the plant performance. The models were tuned using both the influent and effluent data from the plant and their laboratories. The plant SCADA was used to predict the influent wastewater rates and concentration profiles as a function of time. The kinetic parameters were tuned based on sensitivity analysis and trial and error methods. The dynamic models were validated by using experimental data for influent and effluent parameters. The dissolved oxygen measurements were taken to validate the model by coupling them with Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) models. The Biowin models were able to exactly mimic the plant performance and predict effluent behavior for extended periods. The models are useful for plant engineers and operators as they can take decisions beforehand by predicting the plant performance with the use of BioWin models. One of the important findings from the model was the effects of recycle and wastage ratios on the mixed liquor suspended solids. The model was also useful in determining the significant kinetic parameters for biological wastewater treatment systems.

Keywords: BioWin, kinetic modeling, flowsheet simulation, dynamic modeling

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Authors: Ahmadali Tahmasebimoradi, Chetra Mang, Xavier Lorang

Abstract:

Thanks to the additive manufacturing process, lattice structures are replacing the traditional structures in aeronautical and automobile industries. In order to evaluate the mechanical response of the lattice structures, one has to resort to numerical techniques. Ansys is a globally well-known and trusted commercial software that allows us to model the lattice structures and analyze their mechanical responses using either solid or beam elements. In this software, a script may be used to systematically generate the lattice structures for any size. On the one hand, solid elements allow us to correctly model the contact between the substrates (the supports of the lattice structure) and the lattice structure, the local plasticity, and the junctions of the microbeams. However, their computational cost increases rapidly with the size of the lattice structure. On the other hand, although beam elements reduce the computational cost drastically, it doesn’t correctly model the contact between the lattice structures and the substrates nor the junctions of the microbeams. Also, the notion of local plasticity is not valid anymore. Moreover, the deformed shape of the lattice structure doesn’t correspond to the deformed shape of the lattice structure using 3D solid elements. In this work, motivated by the pros and cons of the 3D and beam models, a numerically hybrid model is presented for the lattice structures to reduce the computational cost of the simulations while avoiding the aforementioned drawbacks of the beam elements. This approach consists of the utilization of solid elements for the junctions and beam elements for the microbeams connecting the corresponding junctions to each other. When the global response of the structure is linear, the results from the hybrid models are in good agreement with the ones from the 3D models for body-centered cubic with z-struts (BCCZ) and body-centered cubic without z-struts (BCC) lattice structures. However, the hybrid models have difficulty to converge when the effect of large deformation and local plasticity are considerable in the BCCZ structures. Furthermore, the effect of the junction’s size of the hybrid models on the results is investigated. For BCCZ lattice structures, the results are not affected by the junction’s size. This is also valid for BCC lattice structures as long as the ratio of the junction’s size to the diameter of the microbeams is greater than 2. The hybrid model can take into account the geometric defects. As a demonstration, the point clouds of two lattice structures are parametrized in a platform called LATANA (LATtice ANAlysis) developed by IRT-SystemX. In this process, for each microbeam of the lattice structures, an ellipse is fitted to capture the effect of shape variation and roughness. Each ellipse is represented by three parameters; semi-major axis, semi-minor axis, and angle of rotation. Having the parameters of the ellipses, the lattice structures are constructed in Spaceclaim (ANSYS) using the geometrical hybrid approach. The results show a negligible discrepancy between the hybrid and 3D models, while the computational cost of the hybrid model is lower than the computational cost of the 3D model.

Keywords: additive manufacturing, Ansys, geometric defects, hybrid finite element model, lattice structure

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Authors: Taha Benarbia, Kay W. Axhausen, Anugrah Ilahi

Abstract:

Electric car sharing system as ecologic transportation increasing in the world. The complexity of managing electric car sharing systems, especially one-way trips and battery autonomy have direct influence to on supply and demand of system. One must be able to precisely model the demand and supply of these systems to better operate electric car sharing and estimate its effect on mobility management and the accessibility that it provides in urban areas. In this context, our work focus to develop performances optimization model of the system based on discrete event simulation and stochastic Petri net. The objective is to search optimal decisions and management parameters of the system in order to fulfil at best demand while minimizing undesirable situations. In this paper, we present new model of electric cars sharing with relocation based on monitoring system. The proposed approach also help to precise the influence of battery charging level on the behaviour of system as important decision parameter of this complex and dynamical system.

Keywords: electric car-sharing systems, smart mobility, Petri nets modelling, discrete event simulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 183