Search results for: financial numbers game
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 4648

Search results for: financial numbers game

1558 Climate Policy Actions for Sustaining International Agricultural Development Projects: The Role of Non-State, Sub-National Stakeholder Engagements, and Monitoring and Evaluation

Authors: EMMANUEL DWAMENA SASU

Abstract:

International climate policy actions require countries under Paris Agreement to design instruments, provide support (financial and technical), and strengthen institutional capacity with tendency to transcending policy formulation to implementation and sustainability. Changes associated with moisture depletion has been a growing phenomenon; especially in developing countries with projected global GDP drop from 7% to 2% between 2005 and 2050. These developments have potential to adversely affect food production in feeding the growing world population, with corresponding rise in global hunger. Incongruously, there is global absence of a harmonized policy direction; capable of providing the required indicators on climate policies for monitoring sustainability of international agricultural development projects. We conduct extensive review and synthesis on existing limitations on global climate policy governance, agricultural food security and sustainability of international agricultural development projects, and conjecture the role of non-state and sub-national climate stakeholder engagements, and monitoring and evaluation strategies for improved climate policy action for sustaining international agricultural development projects.

Keywords: climate policy, agriculture, development projects, sustainability

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1557 Bayesian Value at Risk Forecast Using Realized Conditional Autoregressive Expectiel Mdodel with an Application of Cryptocurrency

Authors: Niya Chen, Jennifer Chan

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In the financial market, risk management helps to minimize potential loss and maximize profit. There are two ways to assess risks; the first way is to calculate the risk directly based on the volatility. The most common risk measurements are Value at Risk (VaR), sharp ratio, and beta. Alternatively, we could look at the quantile of the return to assess the risk. Popular return models such as GARCH and stochastic volatility (SV) focus on modeling the mean of the return distribution via capturing the volatility dynamics; however, the quantile/expectile method will give us an idea of the distribution with the extreme return value. It will allow us to forecast VaR using return which is direct information. The advantage of using these non-parametric methods is that it is not bounded by the distribution assumptions from the parametric method. But the difference between them is that expectile uses a second-order loss function while quantile regression uses a first-order loss function. We consider several quantile functions, different volatility measures, and estimates from some volatility models. To estimate the expectile of the model, we use Realized Conditional Autoregressive Expectile (CARE) model with the bayesian method to achieve this. We would like to see if our proposed models outperform existing models in cryptocurrency, and we will test it by using Bitcoin mainly as well as Ethereum.

Keywords: expectile, CARE Model, CARR Model, quantile, cryptocurrency, Value at Risk

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1556 The Efficacy of Pre-Hospital Packed Red Blood Cells in the Treatment of Severe Trauma: A Retrospective, Matched, Cohort Study

Authors: Ryan Adams

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Introduction: Major trauma is the leading cause of death in 15-45 year olds and a significant human, social and economic costs. Resuscitation is a stalwart of trauma management, especially in the pre-hospital environment and packed red blood cells (pRBC) are being increasingly used with the advent of permissive hypotension. The evidence in this area is lacking and further research is required to determine its efficacy. Aim: The aim of this retrospective, matched cohort study was to determine if major trauma patients, who received pre-hospital pRBC, have a difference in their initial emergency department cardiovascular status; when compared with injury-profile matched controls. Methods: The trauma databases of the Royal Brisbane and Women's Hospital, Royal Children's Hospital (Herston) and Queensland Ambulance Service were accessed and major trauma patient (ISS>12) data, who received pre-hospital pRBC, from January 2011 to August 2014 was collected. Patients were then matched against control patients that had not received pRBC, by their injury profile. The primary outcomes was cardiovascular status; defined as shock index and Revised Trauma Score. Results: Data for 25 patients who received pre-hospital pRBC was accessed and the injury profiles matched against suitable controls. On admittance to the emergency department, a statistically significant difference was seen in the blood group (Blood = 1.42 and Control = 0.97, p-value = 0.0449). However, the same was not seen with the RTS (Blood = 4.15 and Control 5.56, p-value = 0.291). Discussion: A worsening shock index and revised trauma score was associated with pre-hospital administration of pRBC. However, due to the small sample size, limited matching protocol and associated confounding factors it is difficult to draw any solid conclusions. Further studies, with larger patient numbers, are required to enable adequate conclusions to be drawn on the efficacy of pre-hospital packed red blood cell transfusion.

Keywords: pre-hospital, packed red blood cells, severe trauma, emergency medicine

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1555 Off-Farm Work and Cost Efficiency in Staple Food Production among Small-Scale Farmers in North Central Nigeria

Authors: C. E. Ogbanje, S. A. N. D. Chidebelu, N. J. Nweze

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The study evaluated off-farm work and cost efficiency in staple food production among small-scale farmers in North Central Nigeria. Multistage sampling technique was used to select 360 respondents (participants and non-participants in off-farm work). Primary data obtained were analysed using stochastic cost frontier and test of means’ difference. Capital input was lower for participants (N2,596.58) than non-participants (N11,099.14). Gamma (γ) was statistically significant. Farm size significantly (p<0.01) increased cost outlay for participants and non-participants. Average input prices of enterprises one and two significantly (p<0.01) increased cost. Sex, household size, credit obtained, formal education, farming experience, and farm income significantly (p<0.05) reduced cost inefficiency for non-participants. Average cost efficiency was 11%. Farm capital was wasted. Participants’ substitution of capital for labour did not put them at a disadvantage. Extension agents should encourage farmers to obtain financial relief from off-farm work but not to the extent of endangering farm cost efficiency.

Keywords: cost efficiency, mean difference, North Central Nigeria, off-farm work, participants and non-participants, small-scale farmers

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1554 Multilayered Assembly of Gelatin on Nanofibrous Matrix for 3-D Cell Cultivation

Authors: Ji Un Shin, Wei Mao, Hyuk Sang Yoo

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Electrospinning is a versatile tool for fabricating nano-structured polymeric materials. Gelatin hydrogels are considered to be a good material for cell cultivation because of high water swellability as well as good biocompatibility. Three-dimensional (3-D) cell cultivation is a desirable method of cell cultivation for preparing tissues and organs because cell-to-cell interactions or cell-to-matrix interactions can be much enhanced through this approach. For this reason, hydrogels were widely employed as tissue scaffolds because they can support cultivating cells and tissue in multi-dimensions. Major disadvantages of hydrogel-based cell cultivation include low mechanical properties, lack of topography, which should be enhanced for successful tissue engineering. Herein we surface-immobilized gelatin on the surface of nanofibrous matrix for 3-D cell cultivation in topographical cues added environments. Electrospun nanofibers were electrospun with injection of poly(caprolactone) through a single nozzle syringe. Electrospun meshes were then chopped up with a high speed grinder to fine powders. This was hydrolyzed in optimized concentration of sodium hydroxide solution from 1 to 6 hours and harvested by centrifugation. The freeze-dried powders were examined by scanning electron microscopy (SEM) for revealing the morphology and fibrilar shaped with a length of ca. 20um was observed. This was subsequently immersed in gelatin solution for surface-coating of gelatin, where the process repeated up to 10 times for obtaining desirable coating of gelatin on the surface. Gelatin-coated nanofibrils showed high waterswellability in comparison to the unmodified nanofibrils, and this enabled good dispersion properties of the modified nanofibrils in aqueous phase. The degree of water-swellability was increased as the coating numbers of gelatin increased, however, it did not any meaning result after 10 times of gelatin coating process. Thus, by adjusting the gelatin coating times, we could successfully control the degree of hydrophilicity and water-swellability of nanofibrils.

Keywords: nano, fiber, cell, tissue

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1553 The Impact of Funders on the Media Industry in the Kurdistan Region Iraqi

Authors: Abdulsamad Qadir Hussien

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This paper examines the impact of funders on the media industry in the Kurdistan Region Iraqi (henceforth KRI). The key objectives of the study are also looking at: how the media industry funder influences the media organization and journalists’ practices in the Kurdish community; how the media organizations attempt to utilize the available capabilities to serve the goals of the funded entities, whether they are parties, NGOs, governments, commercial companies or have individual ownership of media institutes. Further, the research project seeks to discover the influence and role of the funder on the media content and determine the prioritizing that will broadcast on the media. Furthermore, the project tries to understand to what extent the media organizations have a commitment to achieve the public interest and public affairs by following the key ethical principles. The study also attempts to explain the situation of the public service media. These variables are measured through a survey questionnaire distributed among a sample of 108 journalists and media practitioners. This research project, therefore, explores a new topic for study in the Kurdish community regarding the media industry, funding, and financial support. This article adopted surveys (n=108) as data collection tools by using a statistical method (SPSS 21). The data of the study have been tabulated, coded, and presented in a descriptive form.

Keywords: funding, journalists’ practices, Kurdish media industry, public services media

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1552 Impact of Locally Synthesized Carbon Nanotubes against Some Local Clinical Bacterial Isolates

Authors: Abdul Matin, Muazzama Akhtar, Shahid Nisar, Saddaf Mazzar, Umer Rashid

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Antibiotic resistance is an increasing concern worldwide now a day. Neisseria gonorrhea and Staphylococcus aureus are known to cause major human sexually transmitted and respiratory diseases respectively. Nanotechnology is an emerging discipline and its application in various fields especially in medical sciences is gigantic. In the present study, we synthesized multi-walled carbon nanotubes (MWNTs) using acid oxidation method and solubilized MWNTs were with length predominantly >500 nm and diameters ranging from 40 to 50 nm. The locally synthesized MWNTs were used against gram positive and negative bacteria to determine their impact on bacterial growth. Clinical isolates of Neisseria gonorrhea (isolate: 4C-11) and Staphylococcus aureus (isolate: 38541) were obtained from local hospital and normally cultured in LB broth at 37°C. Both clinical strains can be obtained on request from University of Gujarat. Spectophometric assay was performed to determine the impact of MWNTs on bacterial growth in vitro. To determine the effect of MWTNs on test organisms, various concentration of MWNTs were used and recorded observation on various time intervals to understand the growth inhibition pattern. Our results demonstrated that MWNTs exhibited toxic effects to Staphylococcus aureus while showed very limited growth inhibition to Neisseria gonorrhea, which suggests the resistant potential of Neisseria against nanoparticles. Our results clearly demonstrate the gradual decrease in bacterial numbers with passage of time when compared with control. Maximum bacterial inhibition was observed at maximum concentration (50 µg/ml). Our future work will include further characterization and mode of action of our locally synthesized MWNTs. In conclusion, we investigated and reported for the first time the inhibitory potential of locally synthesized MWNTs on local clinical isolates of Staphylococcus aureus and Neisseria gonorrhea.

Keywords: antibacterial activity, multi walled carbon nanotubes, Neisseria gonorrhea, spectrophotometer assay, Staphylococcus aureus

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1551 Effects of Plyometric Exercises on Agility, Power and Speed Improvement of U-17 Female Sprinters in Case of Burayu Athletics Project, Oromia, Ethiopia

Authors: Abdeta Bayissa Mekessa

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The purpose of this study was to examine the effects of plyometric exercises on agility, power, and speed and improvement of U-17 female sprinters in the case of the Burayu Athletics project. The true experimental research design was employed for conducting this study. The total populations of the study were 14 U-17 female sprinters from Burayu athletics project. The populations were small in numbers; therefore, the researcher took all as a sample by using comprehensive sampling techniques. These subjects were classified into the Experimental group (N=7) and the Control group (N=7) by using simple random sampling techniques. The Experimental group participated in plyometric training for 8 weeks, 3 days per week and 60 minutes duration per day in addition to their regular training. But, the control groups were following their only regular training program. The variables selected for the purpose of this study were agility, power and speed. The tests were the Illinois agility test, standing long jump test, and 30m sprint test, respectively. Both groups were tested before (pre-test) and after (post-test) 8 weeks of plyometric training. For data analysis, the researcher used SPSS version 26.0 software. The collected data was analyzed using a paired sample t-test to observe the difference between the pre-test and post-test results of the plyometric exercises of the study. The significant level of p<0.05 was considered. The result of the study shows that after 8 weeks of plyometric training, significant improvements were found in Agility (MD=0.45, p<0.05), power (MD=-1.157, P<0.05) and speed (MD=0.37, P<0.05) for experimental group subjects. On the other hand, there was no significant change (P>0.05) in those variables in the control groups. Finally, the findings of the study showed that eight (8) weeks of plyometric exercises had a positive effect on agility, power and speed improvement of female sprinters. Therefore, Athletics coaches and athletes are highly recommended to include plyometric exercise in their training program.

Keywords: ploymetric exercise, speed power, aglity, female sprinter

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1550 The Conservatoire Crisis: An Exploration into the Lived Experiences of Conservatoire Graduates

Authors: Scott Caizley

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Widening participation amongst state schooled and British and Minority Ethnic (BME) students in UK conservatoires throughout the past years has persisted to remain at an all time low despite major efforts to increase access for those from underrepresented backgrounds. In the academic year of 2017/18, two of the UK’s leading music conservatoires recruited less state school students than Oxbridge. Whilst conservatories face further public stigmatisation and heavy financial penalties for failing to meet government benchmarks; there appears to be a more costly outcome to this crisis. This of course, is the lack of sociocultural diversity, which is perpetuated both within the conservatoire sector and the classical music industry. This research investigates the lived experiences of former state-schooled students who attended a UK music conservatoire. Given the participant’s underrepresented status, the research seeks to answer whether or not the students are fitting in or standing out within the conservatoire environment. The research will explore the findings through a Bourdieusian contextual framework with hope of generating a wealth of new practises to the field of Higher Music Education. It is through illuminating the underrepresented voices within these elite spaces, which could aid future research and policy to help tackle the diversity dilemma and give classical music the social and cultural renewal it so desperately needs.

Keywords: classical music, lived experiences, higher music education, Bourdieusian

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1549 Self-Determination Theory at the Workplace: Associations between Need Satisfaction and Employment Outcomes

Authors: Wendy I. E. Wesseling

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The unemployment rate has been on the rise since the outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2008. Especially labor market entrants suffer from economic downfall. Despite the abundance of programs and agencies that help to reintegrate unemployed youth, considerable less research attention has been paid to 'fit' between these programs and its participants that ensure a durable labor market transition. According to Self-Determination Theory, need satisfaction is associated with better (mental) adjustment. As such, three hypothesis were formulated: when workers’ needs for competence (H1), relatedness (H2), and autonomy (H3) are satisfied in the workplace, they are more likely to remain employed at the same employer. To test these assumptions, a sample of approximately 800 young people enrolled in a youth unemployment policy participated in a longitudinal study. The unemployment policy was aimed at the development of generic and vocational competences, and had a maximum duration of six months. Need satisfaction during the program was measured, as well as their employment outcomes up to 12 months after completion of the policy. All hypotheses were (partly) supported. Some limitations should be noted. First, since our sample consisted primarily of highly educated white graduates, it remains to be tested whether our results generalize to other groups of unemployed youth. Moreover, we are unable to conclude whether the results are due to the intervention, participants (selection effect), or both, because of the lack of a control group.

Keywords: need satisfaction, person-job fit, self-determination theory, youth unemployment policy

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1548 Comparative Parametric Analysis on the Dynamic Response of Fibre Composite Beams with Debonding

Authors: Indunil Jayatilake, Warna Karunasena

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Fiber Reinforced Polymer (FRP) composites enjoy an array of applications ranging from aerospace, marine and military to automobile, recreational and civil industry due to their outstanding properties. A structural glass fiber reinforced polymer (GFRP) composite sandwich panel made from E-glass fiber skin and a modified phenolic core has been manufactured in Australia for civil engineering applications. One of the major mechanisms of damage in FRP composites is skin-core debonding. The presence of debonding is of great concern not only because it severely affects the strength but also it modifies the dynamic characteristics of the structure, including natural frequency and vibration modes. This paper deals with the investigation of the dynamic characteristics of a GFRP beam with single and multiple debonding by finite element based numerical simulations and analyses using the STRAND7 finite element (FE) software package. Three-dimensional computer models have been developed and numerical simulations were done to assess the dynamic behavior. The FE model developed has been validated with published experimental, analytical and numerical results for fully bonded as well as debonded beams. A comparative analysis is carried out based on a comprehensive parametric investigation. It is observed that the reduction in natural frequency is more affected by single debonding than the equally sized multiple debonding regions located symmetrically to the single debonding position. Thus it is revealed that a large single debonding area leads to more damage in terms of natural frequency reduction than isolated small debonding zones of equivalent area, appearing in the GFRP beam. Furthermore, the extents of natural frequency shifts seem mode-dependent and do not seem to have a monotonous trend of increasing with the mode numbers.

Keywords: debonding, dynamic response, finite element modelling, novel FRP beams

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1547 Online Course of Study and Job Crafting for University Students: Development Work and Feedback

Authors: Hannele Kuusisto, Paivi Makila, Ursula Hyrkkanen

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Introduction: There have been arguments about the skills university students should have when graduated. Current trends argue that as well as the specific job-related skills the graduated students need problem-solving, interaction and networking skills as well as self-management skills. Skills required in working life are also considered in the Finnish national project called VALTE (short for 'prepared for working life'). The project involves 11 Finnish school organizations. As one result of this project, a five-credit independent online course in study and job engagement as well as in study and job crafting was developed at Turku University of Applied Sciences. The aim of the oral or e-poster presentation is to present the online course developed in the project. The purpose of this abstract is to present the development work of the online course and the feedback received from the pilots. Method: As the University of Turku is the leading partner of the VALTE project, the collaborative education platform ViLLE (https://ville.utu.fi, developed by the University of Turku) was chosen as the online platform for the course. Various exercise types with automatic assessment were used; for example, quizzes, multiple-choice questions, classification exercises, gap filling exercises, model answer questions, self-assessment tasks, case tasks, and collaboration in Padlet. In addition, the free material and free platforms on the Internet were used (Youtube, Padlet, Todaysmeet, and Prezi) as well as the net-based questionnaires about the study engagement and study crafting (made with Webropol). Three teachers with long teaching experience (also with job crafting and online pedagogy) and three students working as trainees in the project developed the content of the course. The online course was piloted twice in 2017 as an elective course for the students at Turku University of Applied Sciences, a higher education institution of about 10 000 students. After both pilots, feedback from the students was gathered and the online course was developed. Results: As the result, the functional five-credit independent online course suitable for students of different educational institutions was developed. The student feedback shows that students themselves think that the developed online course really enhanced their job and study crafting skills. After the course, 91% of the students considered their knowledge in job and study engagement as well as in job and study crafting to be at a good or excellent level. About two-thirds of the students were going to exploit their knowledge significantly in the future. Students appreciated the variability and the game-like feeling of the exercises as well as the opportunity to study online at the time and place they chose themselves. On a five-point scale (1 being poor and 5 being excellent), the students graded the clarity of the ViLLE platform as 4.2, the functionality of the platform as 4.0 and the easiness of operating as 3.9.

Keywords: job crafting, job engagement, online course, study crafting, study engagement

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1546 Comparing the Theory to the Practice of Islamic Banking: A Case Study of Pakistan

Authors: Zareen Khan

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Islamic Banking has experienced high growth in Pakistan in recent years and has successfully survived the economic downturn of 2009-2011. Despite the increase in branch network and expansion of services, it is unclear if Islamic banks are truly following the theory and practical application of Shariah Law. This paper explores the theological basis of Islamic finance and examines the discrepancies between the theory and practice of Islamic banking using Pakistan as a case study. It discusses areas where Islamic banks lack proper Shariah compliance and analyzes the financial weaknesses of Islamic banks in terms of the services offered. Furthermore, the paper offers plausible explanations for the clientele of Islamic banks. The case study has three major findings. Firstly, most of the employees of Islamic banks come from conventional banking backgrounds and the banks have to invest in additional trainings to specialize employees in Islamic Banking. Secondly despite the efforts of State Bank of Pakistan, there is a lack of accounting and auditing standards tailored for Islamic Banking. Thirdly, majority of the clients of Islamic banks in Pakistan are accustomed to conventional banking causing the bankers to “speak the conventional banking language.” Combined, these three factors can create gaps in the practical application of Islamic finance in Islamic banks in Pakistan.

Keywords: islamic finance, comparing theory with practice, islamic banking, Pakistan

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1545 Use of Fuzzy Logic in the Corporate Reputation Assessment: Stock Market Investors’ Perspective

Authors: Tomasz L. Nawrocki, Danuta Szwajca

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The growing importance of reputation in building enterprise value and achieving long-term competitive advantage creates the need for its measurement and evaluation for the management purposes (effective reputation and its risk management). The paper presents practical application of self-developed corporate reputation assessment model from the viewpoint of stock market investors. The model has a pioneer character and example analysis performed for selected industry is a form of specific test for this tool. In the proposed solution, three aspects - informational, financial and development, as well as social ones - were considered. It was also assumed that the individual sub-criteria will be based on public sources of information, and as the calculation apparatus, capable of obtaining synthetic final assessment, fuzzy logic will be used. The main reason for developing this model was to fulfill the gap in the scope of synthetic measure of corporate reputation that would provide higher degree of objectivity by relying on "hard" (not from surveys) and publicly available data. It should be also noted that results obtained on the basis of proposed corporate reputation assessment method give possibilities of various internal as well as inter-branch comparisons and analysis of corporate reputation impact.

Keywords: corporate reputation, fuzzy logic, fuzzy model, stock market investors

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1544 Trading Volume on the Tunisian Financial Market: An Approach Explaining the Hypothesis of Investors Overconfidence

Authors: Fatma Ismailia, Malek Saihi

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This research provides an explanation of exchange incentives on the Tunis stock market from a behavioural point of view. The elucidation of the anomalies of excessive volume of transactions and that of excessive volatility cannot be done without the recourse to the psychological aspects of investors. The excessive confidence has been given the predominant role for the explanation of these phenomena. Indeed, when investors store increments, they become more confident about the precision of their private information and their exchange activities then become more aggressive on the subsequent periods. These overconfident investors carry out the intensive exchanges leading to an increase of securities volatility. The objective of this research is to identify whether the trading volume and the excessive volatility of securities observed on the Tunisian stock market come from the excessive exchange of overconfident investors. We use a sample of daily observations over the period January 1999 - October 2007 and we relied on various econometric tests including the VAR model. Our results provide evidence on the importance to consider the bias of overconfidence in the analysis of Tunis stock exchange specificities. The results reveal that the excess of confidence has a major impact on the trading volume while using daily temporal intervals.

Keywords: overconfidence, trading volume, efficiency, rationality, anomalies, behavioural finance, cognitive biases

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1543 Lease Contract: Concept and Types, Comparative Legal Analysis Between Bulgarian Legislation and European Countries

Authors: Veselin Konstantinov Hristov

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In recent years, the lease contract has become more and more applicable and occupies a key place in commercial relations and business. In Bulgaria, the legal regulation of the leasing contract is relatively new and imperfectly developed. There are many legal loopholes and it is they that determine the need for a comparative legal analysis. The purpose of the study is to analyze the various European legislations regarding the leasing contract and to find effective solutions for the legal system of Bulgaria. First of all, are examined the concept of the leasing contract, which originated in the United States of America around the 1950s and spread in Europe, and the etymology of the term "leasing". After that, the main types of lease contracts – financial and operational – are examined and analyzed in detail. Their features and characteristics were studied, as well as a comparative analysis was made between them. Next, in the research, a comparative-legal analysis of the leasing contract in different European countries was made in terms of its development and distribution, as well as its legal characteristics. The mechanism of action and functioning of the leasing contract in several European countries is analyzed. Conclusions are made regarding the legal framework under which the lease contract is most effective. Types of leasing contracts specific only to certain European countries and their advantages are examined. In conclusion, recommendations are made to improve the legal framework of the leasing contract in Bulgaria.

Keywords: alternative financing, leasing contract, financing instruments, innovation

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1542 International Student Mobility to China: A Fastest and Emerging Market for International Students among Developing Countries

Authors: Yasir Khan, Qiu Bin, Antonio-Mihi Ramirez

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This study determines the inflow of international students to China in recent years and the corresponding internationalization strategies in the higher education sector. China has placed attracting international students on in its plan along with the growing of global impact. Acknowledging the stable economy, growth rate, trade, lower renminbi rate, high wages, employment opportunities, high level income per capita, relative low taxes and political system consolidate to attract more international students. A large number of international students making a vast contribution to the higher education sector of China. Understanding the significance of education mission as well as of financial ‘bottom line’ the Chinese government gave great importance to invite more international students from worldwide. The large number of international students in the China has been particularly notable from Asian countries specifically neighboring countries, Pakistan, Thailand, India, Vietnam, South Korea, Magnolia, Malaysia, and Russia. This study summarizes internationalization of higher education in China and also provides directions for future research in this regard.

Keywords: international student mobility, 2020 Govt Planning, emerging market, internationalization of higher education

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1541 Comparison of Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve Smoothing Methods

Authors: D. Sigirli

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The Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve is a commonly used statistical tool for evaluating the diagnostic performance of screening and diagnostic test with continuous or ordinal scale results which aims to predict the presence or absence probability of a condition, usually a disease. When the test results were measured as numeric values, sensitivity and specificity can be computed across all possible threshold values which discriminate the subjects as diseased and non-diseased. There are infinite numbers of possible decision thresholds along the continuum of the test results. The ROC curve presents the trade-off between sensitivity and the 1-specificity as the threshold changes. The empirical ROC curve which is a non-parametric estimator of the ROC curve is robust and it represents data accurately. However, especially for small sample sizes, it has a problem of variability and as it is a step function there can be different false positive rates for a true positive rate value and vice versa. Besides, the estimated ROC curve being in a jagged form, since the true ROC curve is a smooth curve, it underestimates the true ROC curve. Since the true ROC curve is assumed to be smooth, several smoothing methods have been explored to smooth a ROC curve. These include using kernel estimates, using log-concave densities, to fit parameters for the specified density function to the data with the maximum-likelihood fitting of univariate distributions or to create a probability distribution by fitting the specified distribution to the data nd using smooth versions of the empirical distribution functions. In the present paper, we aimed to propose a smooth ROC curve estimation based on the boundary corrected kernel function and to compare the performances of ROC curve smoothing methods for the diagnostic test results coming from different distributions in different sample sizes. We performed simulation study to compare the performances of different methods for different scenarios with 1000 repetitions. It is seen that the performance of the proposed method was typically better than that of the empirical ROC curve and only slightly worse compared to the binormal model when in fact the underlying samples were generated from the normal distribution.

Keywords: empirical estimator, kernel function, smoothing, receiver operating characteristic curve

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1540 The Fusion of Blockchain and AI in Supply Chain Finance: Scalability in Distributed Systems

Authors: Wu You, Burra Venkata Durga Kumar

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This study examines the promising potential of integrating Blockchain and Artificial Intelligence (AI) technologies to scalability in Distributed Systems within the field of supply chain finance. The finance industry is continually confronted with scalability challenges in its Distributed Systems, particularly within the supply chain finance sector, impacting efficiency and security. Blockchain, with its inherent attributes of high scalability and secure distributed ledger system, coupled with AI's strengths in optimizing data processing and decision-making, holds the key to innovating the industry's approach to these issues. This study elucidates the synergistic interplay between Blockchain and AI, detailing how their fusion can drive a significant transformation in the supply chain finance sector's Distributed Systems. It offers specific use-cases within this field to illustrate the practical implications and potential benefits of this technological convergence. The study also discusses future possibilities and current challenges in implementing this groundbreaking approach within the context of supply chain finance. It concludes that the intersection of Blockchain and AI could ignite a new epoch of enhanced efficiency, security, and transparency in the Distributed Systems of supply chain finance within the financial industry.

Keywords: blockchain, artificial intelligence (AI), scaled distributed systems, supply chain finance, efficiency and security

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1539 Exploring the Role of Immune-Modulators in Pathogen Recognition Receptor NOD2 Mediated Protection against Visceral Leishmaniasis

Authors: Junaid Jibran Jawed, Prasanta Saini, Subrata Majumdar

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Background: Leishmania donovani infection causes severe host immune-suppression through the modulation of pathogen recognition receptors. Apart from TLRs (Toll Like Receptor), recent studies focus on the important contribution of NLR (NOD-Like Receptor) family member NOD1 and NOD2 as these receptors are capable of triggering host innate immunity. The aim of this study was to decipher the role of NOD1/NOD2 receptors during experimental visceral leishmaniasis (VL) and the important link between host failure and parasite evasion strategy. Method: The status of NOD1 and NOD2 receptors were analysed in uninfected and infected cells through western blotting and RT-PCR. The active contributions of these receptors in reducing parasite burden were confirmed by siRNA mediated silencing, and over-expression studies and the parasite numbers were calculated through microscopic examination of the Giemsa-stained slides. In-vivo studies were done by using non-toxic dose of Mw (Mycobacterium indicus pranii), Ara-LAM(Arabinoasylated lipoarabinomannan) along with MDP (Muramyl dipeptide) administration. Result: Leishmania donovani infection of the macrophages reduced the expression of NOD2 receptors whereas NOD1 remain unaffected. MDP, a NOD2-ligand, treatment during over-expression of NOD2, reduced the parasite burden effectively which was associated with increased pro-inflammatory cytokine generation and NO production. In experimental mouse model, Ara-LAM treatment increased the expression of NOD2 and in combination with MDP it showed active therapeutic potential against VL and found to be more effective than Mw which was already reported to be involved in NOD2 modulation. Conclusion: This work explores the essential contribution of NOD2 during experimental VL and mechanistic understanding of Ara-LAM + MDP combination therapy to work against this disease and highlighted NOD2 as an essential therapeutic target.

Keywords: Ara-LAM (Arabinoacylated Lipoarabinomannan), NOD2 (nucleotide binding oligomerization receptor 2), MDP (muramyl di peptide), visceral Leishmaniasis

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1538 Initial Settlers and Gender Norms: Evidence From the United States

Authors: Joanne Haddad

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The distinctive traits of early settlers at initial stages of institutional development may be crucial for cultural formation. In 1973, the cultural geographer Wilbur Zelinsky postulated this in his doctrine of “first effective settlement”. There is however little empirical evidence supporting the role of early settlers in shaping culture over the long run. This paper tests this hypothesis by relating early settlers’ culture to within state variation in gender norms in the United States. Settlers’ culture is captured using past female labor force participation, women’s suffrage, and financial rights at their place of origin. The paper documents the distinctive characteristics of settlers’ populations and provide suggestive evidence in support of the transmission of gender norms across space and time. Results from this analysis show that women’s labor supply is higher, in both the short and long run, in U.S. counties that historically hosted a larger settler population originating from places with favorable gender attitudes. Findings from this study shed new light on the importance of the characteristics of immigrants and their place of origin for cultural formation in hosting societies.

Keywords: female labor force participation, settlers, gender norms, cultural formation.

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1537 Risk Assessment on Construction Management with “Fuzzy Logy“

Authors: Mehrdad Abkenari, Orod Zarrinkafsh, Mohsen Ramezan Shirazi

Abstract:

Construction projects initiate in complicated dynamic environments and, due to the close relationships between project parameters and the unknown outer environment, they are faced with several uncertainties and risks. Success in time, cost and quality in large scale construction projects is uncertain in consequence of technological constraints, large number of stakeholders, too much time required, great capital requirements and poor definition of the extent and scope of the project. Projects that are faced with such environments and uncertainties can be well managed through utilization of the concept of risk management in project’s life cycle. Although the concept of risk is dependent on the opinion and idea of management, it suggests the risks of not achieving the project objectives as well. Furthermore, project’s risk analysis discusses the risks of development of inappropriate reactions. Since evaluation and prioritization of construction projects has been a difficult task, the network structure is considered to be an appropriate approach to analyze complex systems; therefore, we have used this structure for analyzing and modeling the issue. On the other hand, we face inadequacy of data in deterministic circumstances, and additionally the expert’s opinions are usually mathematically vague and are introduced in the form of linguistic variables instead of numerical expression. Owing to the fact that fuzzy logic is used for expressing the vagueness and uncertainty, formulation of expert’s opinion in the form of fuzzy numbers can be an appropriate approach. In other words, the evaluation and prioritization of construction projects on the basis of risk factors in real world is a complicated issue with lots of ambiguous qualitative characteristics. In this study, evaluated and prioritization the risk parameters and factors with fuzzy logy method by combination of three method DEMATEL (Decision Making Trial and Evaluation), ANP (Analytic Network Process) and TOPSIS (Technique for Order-Preference by Similarity Ideal Solution) on Construction Management.

Keywords: fuzzy logy, risk, prioritization, assessment

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1536 T Cell Immunity Profile in Pediatric Obesity and Asthma

Authors: Mustafa M. Donma, Erkut Karasu, Burcu Ozdilek, Burhan Turgut, Birol Topcu, Burcin Nalbantoglu, Orkide Donma

Abstract:

The mechanisms underlying the association between obesity and asthma may be related to a decreased immunological tolerance induced by a defective function of regulatory T cells (Tregs). The aim of this study is to establish the potential link between these diseases and CD4+, CD25+ FoxP3+ Tregs as well as T helper cells (Ths) in children. This is a prospective case control study. Obese (n:40), asthmatic (n:40), asthmatic obese (n:40), and healthy children (n:40), who don't have any acute or chronic diseases, were included in this study. Obese children were evaluated according to WHO criteria. Asthmatic patients were chosen based on GINA criteria. Parents were asked to fill up the questionnaire. Informed consent forms were taken. Blood samples were marked with CD4+, CD25+ and FoxP3+ in order to determine Tregs and Ths by flow cytometric method. Statistical analyses were performed. p≤0.05 was chosen as meaningful threshold. Tregs exhibiting anti-inflammatory nature were significantly lower in obese (0,16%; p≤0,001), asthmatic (0,25%; p≤0,01) and asthmatic obese (0,29%; p≤0,05) groups than the control group (0,38%). Ths were counted higher in asthma group than the control (p≤0,01) and obese (p≤0,001)) groups. T cell immunity plays important roles in obesity and asthma pathogeneses. Decreased numbers of Tregs found in obese, asthmatic and asthmatic obese children may help to elucidate some questions in pathophysiology of these diseases. For HOMA-IR levels, any significant difference was not noted between control and obese groups, but statistically higher values were found for obese asthmatics. The values obtained in all groups were found to be below the critical cut off points. This finding has made the statistically significant difference observed between Tregs of obese, asthmatic, obese asthmatic, and control groups much more valuable. These findings will be useful in diagnosis and treatment of these disorders and future studies are needed. The production and propagation of Tregs may be promising in alternative asthma and obesity treatments.

Keywords: asthma, flow cytometry, pediatric obesity, T cells

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1535 Approaches to Reduce the Complexity of Mathematical Models for the Operational Optimization of Large-Scale Virtual Power Plants in Public Energy Supply

Authors: Thomas Weber, Nina Strobel, Thomas Kohne, Eberhard Abele

Abstract:

In context of the energy transition in Germany, the importance of so-called virtual power plants in the energy supply continues to increase. The progressive dismantling of the large power plants and the ongoing construction of many new decentralized plants result in great potential for optimization through synergies between the individual plants. These potentials can be exploited by mathematical optimization algorithms to calculate the optimal application planning of decentralized power and heat generators and storage systems. This also includes linear or linear mixed integer optimization. In this paper, procedures for reducing the number of decision variables to be calculated are explained and validated. On the one hand, this includes combining n similar installation types into one aggregated unit. This aggregated unit is described by the same constraints and target function terms as a single plant. This reduces the number of decision variables per time step and the complexity of the problem to be solved by a factor of n. The exact operating mode of the individual plants can then be calculated in a second optimization in such a way that the output of the individual plants corresponds to the calculated output of the aggregated unit. Another way to reduce the number of decision variables in an optimization problem is to reduce the number of time steps to be calculated. This is useful if a high temporal resolution is not necessary for all time steps. For example, the volatility or the forecast quality of environmental parameters may justify a high or low temporal resolution of the optimization. Both approaches are examined for the resulting calculation time as well as for optimality. Several optimization models for virtual power plants (combined heat and power plants, heat storage, power storage, gas turbine) with different numbers of plants are used as a reference for the investigation of both processes with regard to calculation duration and optimality.

Keywords: CHP, Energy 4.0, energy storage, MILP, optimization, virtual power plant

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1534 The Effects of Collaborative Videogame Play on Flow Experience and Mood

Authors: Eva Nolan, Timothy Mcnichols

Abstract:

Gamers spend over 3 billion hours collectively playing video games a week, which is arguably not nearly enough time to indulge in the many benefits gaming has to offer. Much of the previous research on video gaming is centered on the effects of playing violent video games and the negative impacts they have on the individual. However, there is a dearth of research in the area of non-violent video games, specifically the emotional and cognitive benefits playing non-violent games can offer individuals. Current research in the area of video game play suggests there are many benefits to playing for an individual, such as decreasing symptoms of depression, decreasing stress, increasing positive emotions, inducing relaxation, decreasing anxiety, and particularly improving mood. One suggestion as to why video games may offer such benefits is that they possess ideal characteristics to create and maintain flow experiences, which in turn, is the subjective experience where an individual obtains a heightened and improved state of mind while they are engaged in a task where a balance of challenge and skill is found. Many video games offer a platform for collaborative gameplay, which can enhance the emotional experience of gaming through the feeling of social support and social inclusion. The present study was designed to examine the effects of collaborative gameplay and flow experience on participants’ perceived mood. To investigate this phenomenon, an in-between subjects design involving forty participants were randomly divided into two groups where they engaged in solo or collaborative gameplay. Each group represented an even number of frequent gamers and non-frequent gamers. Each participant played ‘The Lego Movie Videogame’ on the Playstation 4 console. The participant’s levels of flow experience and perceived mood were measured by the Flow State Scale (FSS) and the Positive and Negative Affect Schedule (PANAS). The following research hypotheses were investigated: (i.) participants in the collaborative gameplay condition will experience higher levels of flow experience and higher levels of mood than those in the solo gameplay condition; (ii.) participants who are frequent gamers will experience higher levels of flow experience and higher levels of mood than non-frequent gamers; and (iii.) there will be a significant positive relationship between flow experience and mood. If the estimated findings are supported, this suggests that engaging in collaborative gameplay can be beneficial for an individual’s mood and that experiencing a state of flow can also enhance an individual’s mood. Hence, collaborative gaming can be beneficial to promote positive emotions (higher levels of mood) through engaging an individual’s flow state.

Keywords: collaborative gameplay, flow experience, mood, games, positive emotions

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1533 Electromyography Analysis during Walking and Seated Stepping in the Elderly

Authors: P. Y. Chiang, Y. H. Chen, Y. J. Lin, C. C. Chang, W. C. Hsu

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The number of the elderly in the world population and the rate of falls in this increasing numbers of older people are increasing. Decreasing muscle strength and an increasing risk of falling are associated with the ageing process. Because the effects of seated stepping training on the walking performance in the elderly remain unclear, the main purpose of the proposed study is to perform electromyography analysis during walking and seated stepping in the elderly. Four surface EMG electrodes were sticked on the surface of lower limbs muscles, including vastus lateralis (VL), and gastrocnemius (GT) of both sides. Before test, maximal voluntary contraction (MVC) of the respective muscle was obtained using manual muscle testing. The analog raw data of EMG signals were digitized with a sampling frequency of 2000 Hz. The signals were fully rectified and the linear envelope were calculated. Stepping motion cycle was separated into two phases by stepping timing (ST) and pedal return timing (PRT). ST refer to the time when the pedal marker reached the highest height, representing the contra-lateral leg was going to release the pedal. PRT refer to the time when the pedal marker reached the lowest height, representing the contra-lateral leg was going to step the pedal. We assumed that ST acted the same role in initial contact during walking, and PRT for toe-off. The period from ST to next PRT was called pushing phase (PP), during which the leg would start to step with resistance, and we compare this phase with the stance phase in level walking. The period from PRT to next ST was called returning phase (RP), during which leg would not have any resistance in this phase, and we compare this phase with the swing phase in level walking. VL and Gastro muscular activation had similar patterns in both side. The ability may transfer to those needed during loading response, mid-stance and terminal swing phase. User needed to make more effort in stepping compared with walking with similar timing; thus the strengthening of the VL and Gastro may be helpful to improve the walking endurance and efficiency for the elderly.

Keywords: elderly, electromyography, seated stepping, walking

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1532 Palliative Care and Persons with Intellectual Disabilities

Authors: Miriam Colleran, Barbara Sheehy-Skeffington

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Background: To explore if there are unique features in the palliative care needs of patients with intellectual disability that may impact on planning for resource and service provision for them. Aim: The purpose of this practice review is to assess the indications for, numbers of and outcomes of care for adults with intellectual disabilities referred to a specialist palliative care service over a twoyear period. Service utilization aspects considered included the frequency of home visits by a specialist palliative care doctor or clinical nurse specialist and the number of hospice admissions that occurred for the patients. Method: A retrospective review was carried out of persons 18 years and older with intellectual disabilities referred to a specialist palliative care service over a 5-year period from 30.11.3018 to 29.11.2023. A manual review was carried out of the register using key terms, namely, known residential care and community dwelling places of service providers for persons with intellectual disabilities in the area and registered diagnoses in addition to the patients known to the clinicians who had intellectual disabilities. Results: 25 referrals were made to the specialist palliative care service of 23 persons with intellectual disabilities during that time. However, this may be an underestimate. 15 women and 8 men were referred with an age range of 19 to 86 years of age. The majority had a diagnosis of Down’s syndrome or Trisomy 21. 5 patients referred did not have home visits from the specialist palliative care team. A range of 2 to 48 phone calls per person occurred by the specialist palliative care team regarding this cohort of patients. The outcomes for the patients included discharge and death. The majority of patients that died, did so in the community. One person however died in hospital. Another person died in a hospice out of area. Conclusion: Providing specialist palliative care for adults with intellectual disabilities is an important element of palliative care. The dominance of the community as the place of death for these patients and the limited number of patients dying in either hospice or hospital are noteworthy. Further research is necessary and education to inform, support, and empower specialist palliative care professionals in optimizing palliative and end-of-life care for persons with intellectual disabilities and to inform service development and provision.

Keywords: about intellectual disability, palliative care

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1531 Prevalence of Burnout among Health Care Workers During Covid-19 Pandemic at a Tertiary Hospital in Mauritius

Authors: Mubarak Jan Beebee Zeba Mahetaab, Sumera Bibi Keenoo

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Background: Covid-19 was first reported in Wuhan. On 13th March 2020, WHO declared Covid-19 as a pandemic disease with 140,936 cases globally. The outbreak of covid-19 occurred in over 184 countries, and it created a lot of medical and mental burdens. Aside from the physical problems, the mental health of the medical staff has been of critical concern. Aims and Objectives: To determine the prevalence of burnout among HCW dealing with COVID-19, identify the risk factors and find measures to support their mental health while dealing with the current and future pandemic. Methodology: A cross-sectional study was conducted among the HCW who fought against COVID-19 in SSRN Hospital in Mauritius. The HCWs were recruited using the snowballing sampling technique. Age, gender, job category, income, duration of vacation, working environment and importance of mental health were measured. Results: The prevalence of burnout was highest among HCA. Age had no significant association with pandemic-related burnout. In Mauritius, burnout during the pandemic is linked with lower income and having less vacation days. Conclusion: Burnout is prevalent among healthcare workers working during the Covid-19 Pandemic. Interventions such as psychological counselling, yoga and financial increments need to be implemented to help the healthcare workers.

Keywords: burnout, Covid-19, health care professionals, pandemic

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1530 Representations of Germanophobia during the German Unification and the Euro Crisis: A Comparative Study in the Portuguese Press

Authors: Ana Luisa Mouro, Ana Maria Ramalheira

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The Reunification of Germany, in 1990, was not received with great enthusiasm by other European countries. On the contrary, the union of the two German states was accompanied by great concern towards its possible political and economic consequences. The Europeans had not forgotten Germany’s responsibility in the outbreak of the Second World War, and many feared that this new nation would again long for a hegemonic role. During the following years, however, the notion of a threatening Germany faded away, giving place to a description of Germany as an economic giant but a political dwarf. Twenty years after the Reunification, with the outbreak of the financial crisis, Germany conquered a key and powerful position at the heart of Europe and Germanophobia started to gain ground again. The present study has been based on the survey, selection and critical analysis of news reporting, opinion articles, interviews and editorials, published in the weekly Expresso and the daily Público, during two historical moments: the Reunification of Germany in 1990 and the European Crisis, between 2008 and 2015. The findings of this study will show that Germany’s growing influence over the current European economic and political scene woke up old 'demons' that had been 'sleeping' since 1990.

Keywords: media and cultural studies, Euro crisis, German Unification, Germanophobia, Portuguese quality press

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1529 Efficiency and Performance of Legal Institutions in the Middle East in the 21st Century

Authors: Marco Khalaf Ayad Milhaail

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In thinking about the role of legal rules and their impact on social ethics and social structures, scholars have explored many issues related to gender, power, and ideology. First, it provides a framework for defining feminist legal studies through an overview of the field's evolution in terms of equality, rights, and justice. Secondly, it encourages those interested in equality, rights, and justice regarding women's issues to participate in international comparative law research. Third, we must emphasize that those seeking solutions to disability and discrimination must be aware of the need to confront the so-called undermining of culture. Therefore, an effective way for women to solve this problem is to rely heavily on international law, which establishes basic legal principles such as gender equality, rights, and justice and can help create a domestic environment. Woman has gained many advantages by adopting the law of Divorce in the Islamic Sharea. Any Egyptian woman can get divorce by letting her rightful rights and wealth to her husband in return for her freedom.

Keywords: stability, harsh environments, techniques, thermal, properties, materials, applications, brittleness, fragility, disadvantages, bank, branches, profitability, setting prediction, effective target, measurement, evaluation, performance, commercial, business, profitability, sustainability, financial, system, banks

Procedia PDF Downloads 40