Search results for: statistical modelling
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 5682

Search results for: statistical modelling

2682 A Coupled Model for Two-Phase Simulation of a Heavy Water Pressure Vessel Reactor

Authors: D. Ramajo, S. Corzo, M. Nigro

Abstract:

A Multi-dimensional computational fluid dynamics (CFD) two-phase model was developed with the aim to simulate the in-core coolant circuit of a pressurized heavy water reactor (PHWR) of a commercial nuclear power plant (NPP). Due to the fact that this PHWR is a Reactor Pressure Vessel type (RPV), three-dimensional (3D) detailed modelling of the large reservoirs of the RPV (the upper and lower plenums and the downcomer) were coupled with an in-house finite volume one-dimensional (1D) code in order to model the 451 coolant channels housing the nuclear fuel. Regarding the 1D code, suitable empirical correlations for taking into account the in-channel distributed (friction losses) and concentrated (spacer grids, inlet and outlet throttles) pressure losses were used. A local power distribution at each one of the coolant channels was also taken into account. The heat transfer between the coolant and the surrounding moderator was accurately calculated using a two-dimensional theoretical model. The implementation of subcooled boiling and condensation models in the 1D code along with the use of functions for representing the thermal and dynamic properties of the coolant and moderator (heavy water) allow to have estimations of the in-core steam generation under nominal flow conditions for a generic fission power distribution. The in-core mass flow distribution results for steady state nominal conditions are in agreement with the expected from design, thus getting a first assessment of the coupled 1/3D model. Results for nominal condition were compared with those obtained with a previous 1/3D single-phase model getting more realistic temperature patterns, also allowing visualize low values of void fraction inside the upper plenum. It must be mentioned that the current results were obtained by imposing prescribed fission power functions from literature. Therefore, results are showed with the aim of point out the potentiality of the developed model.

Keywords: PHWR, CFD, thermo-hydraulic, two-phase flow

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2681 Study of Objectivity, Reliability and Validity of Pedagogical Diagnostic Parameters Introduced in the Framework of a Specific Research

Authors: Emiliya Tsankova, Genoveva Zlateva, Violeta Kostadinova

Abstract:

The challenges modern education faces undoubtedly require reforms and innovations aimed at the reconceptualization of existing educational strategies, the introduction of new concepts and novel techniques and technologies related to the recasting of the aims of education and the remodeling of the content and methodology of education which would guarantee the streamlining of our education with basic European values. Aim: The aim of the current research is the development of a didactic technology for the assessment of the applicability and efficacy of game techniques in pedagogic practice calibrated to specific content and the age specificity of learners, as well as for evaluating the efficacy of such approaches for the facilitation of the acquisition of biological knowledge at a higher theoretical level. Results: In this research, we examine the objectivity, reliability and validity of two newly introduced diagnostic parameters for assessing the durability of the acquired knowledge. A pedagogic experiment has been carried out targeting the verification of the hypothesis that the introduction of game techniques in biological education leads to an increase in the quantity, quality and durability of the knowledge acquired by students. For the purposes of monitoring the effect of the application of the pedagogical technique employing game methodology on the durability of the acquired knowledge a test-base examination has been applied to students from a control group (CG) and students form an experimental group on the same content after a six-month period. The analysis is based on: 1.A study of the statistical significance of the differences of the tests for the CG and the EG, applied after a six-month period, which however is not indicative of the presence or absence of a marked effect from the applied pedagogic technique in cases when the entry levels of the two groups are different. 2.For a more reliable comparison, independently from the entry level of each group, another “indicator of efficacy of game techniques for the durability of knowledge” which has been used for the assessment of the achievement results and durability of this methodology of education. The monitoring of the studied parameters in their dynamic unfolding in different age groups of learners unquestionably reveals a positive effect of the introduction of game techniques in education in respect of durability and permanence of acquired knowledge. Methods: In the current research the following battery of methods and techniques of research for diagnostics has been employed: theoretical analysis and synthesis; an actual pedagogical experiment; questionnaire; didactic testing and mathematical and statistical methods. The data obtained have been used for the qualitative and quantitative of the results which reflect the efficacy of the applied methodology. Conclusion: The didactic model of the parameters researched in the framework of a specific study of pedagogic diagnostics is based on a general, interdisciplinary approach. Enhanced durability of the acquired knowledge proves the transition of that knowledge from short-term memory storage into long-term memory of pupils and students, which justifies the conclusion that didactic plays have beneficial effects for the betterment of learners’ cognitive skills. The innovations in teaching enhance the motivation, creativity and independent cognitive activity in the process of acquiring the material thought. The innovative methods allow for untraditional means for assessing the level of knowledge acquisition. This makes possible the timely discovery of knowledge gaps and the introduction of compensatory techniques, which in turn leads to deeper and more durable acquisition of knowledge.

Keywords: objectivity, reliability and validity of pedagogical diagnostic parameters introduced in the framework of a specific research

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2680 Investigation of Projected Organic Waste Impact on a Tropical Wetland in Singapore

Authors: Swee Yang Low, Dong Eon Kim, Canh Tien Trinh Nguyen, Yixiong Cai, Shie-Yui Liong

Abstract:

Nee Soon swamp forest is one of the last vestiges of tropical wetland in Singapore. Understanding the hydrological regime of the swamp forest and implications for water quality is critical to guide stakeholders in implementing effective measures to preserve the wetland against anthropogenic impacts. In particular, although current field measurement data do not indicate a concern with organic pollution, reviewing the ways in which the wetland responds to elevated organic waste influx (and the corresponding impact on dissolved oxygen, DO) can help identify potential hotspots, and the impact on the outflow from the catchment which drains into downstream controlled watercourses. An integrated water quality model is therefore developed in this study to investigate spatial and temporal concentrations of DO levels and organic pollution (as quantified by biochemical oxygen demand, BOD) within the catchment’s river network under hypothetical, projected scenarios of spiked upstream inflow. The model was developed using MIKE HYDRO for modelling the study domain, as well as the MIKE ECO Lab numerical laboratory for characterising water quality processes. Model parameters are calibrated against time series of observed discharges at three measurement stations along the river network. Over a simulation period of April 2014 to December 2015, the calibrated model predicted that a continuous spiked inflow of 400 mg/l BOD will elevate downstream concentrations at the catchment outlet to an average of 12 mg/l, from an assumed nominal baseline BOD of 1 mg/l. Levels of DO were decreased from an initial 5 mg/l to 0.4 mg/l. Though a scenario of spiked organic influx at the swamp forest’s undeveloped upstream sub-catchments is currently unlikely to occur, the outcomes nevertheless will be beneficial for future planning studies in understanding how the water quality of the catchment will be impacted should urban redevelopment works be considered around the swamp forest.

Keywords: hydrology, modeling, water quality, wetland

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2679 User Satisfaction Survey Based Facility Performance Evaluation

Authors: Gopikrishnan Seshadhri, V. M. Topkar

Abstract:

Facility management post occupation is a facet that has gained tremendous ground in the recent times. While the efficiency of expenditure and utilization of all types of resources are monitored to ensure timely completion with minimum cost and acceptable quality during construction phase, value for money comes out only when the facility performs satisfactorily post occupation, meeting aspirations and expectations of users of the facility. It is more so for the public facilities. Due to the paradigm shift in focus to outcome based performance evaluation, user satisfaction obtained mainly through questionnaires has become the single important criterion in performance evaluation. Questionnaires presently being used to gauge user satisfaction being subjective, the feedback obtained do not necessarily reflect actual performance. Hence, there is a requirement of developing a survey instrument that can gauge user satisfaction as objectively as possible and truly reflects the ground reality. A near correct picture of actual performance of the built facility from the user point of view will enable facility managers to address pertinent issues. This paper brings out the need for an effective survey instrument that will elicit more objective user response. It also lists steps involved in formulation of such an instrument.

Keywords: facility performance evaluation, attributes, attribute descriptors, user satisfaction surveys, statistical methods, performance indicators

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2678 Thyroid Hormones and Thyrotropin Status in Nepalese Postmenopausal Women

Authors: S. A. Khan, B. Mishra, O. Sherchan

Abstract:

Background and Aims: Thyroid disorder is the most common endocrine disorder after diabetes mellitus. Females are more vulnerable to this disease, and old age is an important risk factor. This study was undertaken to investigate the burden of thyroid disorder in Nepalese postmenopausal women. Methods: In the present cross-sectional study, we included 271 post-menopausal women. Three ml of blood was collected following standard protocol after taking the written consent. Serum was separated and analyzed for free T3, free T4, and Thyroid Stimulating Hormone (TSH) by Chemiluminescence Immunoassay (CLIA) method in Snibe Maglumi 1000 analyzer. Data obtained was analyzed in SPSS Version 21. P < 0.05 was set for statistical significant at 95% Confidence Interval (CI). Results: Majority of the participants belong to Janjati (46.5%) ethnicity, followed by Brahmin/Chhetri (41.7%), residing either in urban or suburban locality. Most of them were non-vegetarian, non-smoker, and non-alcoholic. Subjects were divided into hyperthyroid (TSH < 0.3 uIU/ml), hypothyroid (TSH > 4.5 uIU/ml), and euthyroid (TSH=0.3-4.5 uIU/ml) based on TSH value. We reported 10.3% hyperthyroid and 29.2% hypothyroid cases. TSH was significantly correlated with T3 (r=-0.244; p < 0.001) T4 (r=-0.398; p < 0.001); age (r=-0.138; p=0.023) and BMI (r=0.123; p=0.043). Multiple linear regression model for TSH reveals only T3 and T4 were significantly associated with TSH (p < 0.001; p=0.001). Conclusion: To conclude, nearly 39.5% of the postmenopausal women had thyroid disorder. Postmenopausal women are vulnerable to thyroid disorder; therefore, requires regular thyroid monitoring.

Keywords: thyroid stimulating hormone, TSH, T3, T4, thyroid disorder

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2677 A Simulation of Patient Queuing System on Radiology Department at Tertiary Specialized Referral Hospital in Indonesia

Authors: Yonathan Audhitya Suthihono, Ratih Dyah Kusumastuti

Abstract:

The radiology department in a tertiary referral hospital faces service operation challenges such as huge and various patient arrival, which can increase the probability of patient queuing. During the COVID-19 pandemic, it is mandatory to apply social distancing protocol in the radiology department. A strategy to prevent the accumulation of patients at one spot would be required. The aim of this study is to identify an alternative solution which can reduce the patient’s waiting time in radiology department. Discrete event simulation (DES) is used for this study by constructing several improvement scenarios with Arena simulation software. Statistical analysis is used to test the validity of the base case scenario model and to investigate the performance of the improvement scenarios. The result of this study shows that the selected scenario is able to reduce patient waiting time significantly, which leads to more efficient services in a radiology department, be able to serve patients more effectively, and thus increase patient satisfaction. The result of the simulation can be used by the hospital management to improve the operational performance of the radiology department.

Keywords: discrete event simulation, hospital management patient queuing model, radiology department services

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2676 The Effectiveness of Group Counseling of Mindfulness-Based Cognitive Therapy on Cognitive Emotion Regulation in High School Students

Authors: Hossein Ilanloo, Sedigheh Ahmadi, Kianoosh Zahrakar

Abstract:

The present study aims at investigating the effectiveness of group counseling of mindfulness-based cognitive therapy on cognitive emotion regulation in high school students. The research design was quasi-experimental and pre-test-post-test type and a two-month follow-up with a control group. The statistical population of the study consisted of all-male high school students in Takestan city in the Academic Year 2020-2021. The sample comprised 30 high school male students selected through the convenience sampling method and randomly assigned to experimental (n=15) and control (n=15) groups. The experimental group then received ten sessions of 90-minute group counseling of mindfulness-based cognitive therapy, and the control group did not receive any intervention. In order to collect data, the author used the Cognitive Emotion Regulation Questionnaire (CERQ). The researcher also used multivariate analysis of covariance, repeated measures, LSD post hoc test, and SPSS-26 software for data analysis.

Keywords: mindfulness-based cognitive therapy, cognitive emotion regulation, students, high schools

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2675 Long-Term Modal Changes in International Traffic - Modelling Exercise

Authors: Tomasz Komornicki

Abstract:

The primary aim of the presentation is to try to model border traffic and, at the same time to explain on which economic variables the intensity of border traffic depended in the long term. For this purpose, long series of traffic data on the Polish borders were used. Models were estimated for three variants of explanatory variables: a) for total arrivals and departures (total movement of Poles and foreigners), b) for arrivals and departures of Poles, and c) for arrivals and departures of foreigners. Each of the defined explanatory variables in the models appeared as the logarithm of the natural number of persons. Data from 1994-2017 were used for modeling (for internal Schengen borders for the years 1994-2007). Information on the number of people arriving in and leaving Poland was collected for a total of 303 border crossings. On the basis of the analyses carried out, it was found that one of the main factors determining border traffic is generally differences in the level of economic development (GDP) and the condition of the economy (level of unemployment) and the degree of border permeability. Also statistically significant for border traffic are differences in the prices of goods (fuels, tobacco, and alcohol products) and services (mainly basic ones, e.g., hairdressing services). Such a relationship exists mainly on the eastern border (border traffic determined largely by differences in the prices of goods) and on the border with Germany (in the first analysed period, border traffic was determined mainly by the prices of goods, later - after Poland's accession to the EU and the Schengen area - also by the prices of services). The models also confirmed differences in the set of factors shaping the volume and structure of border traffic on the Polish borders resulting from general geopolitical conditions, with the year 2007 being an important caesura, after which the classical population mobility factors became visible. The results obtained were additionally related to changes in traffic that occurred as a result of the CPOVID-19 pandemic and as a result of the Russian aggression against Ukraine.

Keywords: border, modal structure, transport, Ukraine

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2674 Nafion Multiwalled Carbon Nano Tubes Composite Film Modified Glassy Carbon Sensor for the Voltammetric Estimation of Dianabol Steroid in Pharmaceuticals and Biological Fluids

Authors: Nouf M. Al-Ourfi, A. S. Bashammakh, M. S. El-Shahawi

Abstract:

The redox behavior of dianabol steroid (DS) on Nafion Multiwalled Carbon nano -tubes (MWCNT) composite film modified glassy carbon electrode (GCE) in various buffer solutions was studied using cyclic voltammetry (CV) and differential pulse- adsorptive cathodic stripping voltammetry (DP-CSV) and successfully compared with the results at non modified bare GCE. The Nafion-MWCNT composite film modified GCE exhibited the best electrochemical response among the two electrodes for the electro reduction of DS that was inferred from the EIS, CV and DP-CSV. The modified sensor showed a sensitive, stable and linear response in the concentration range of 5 – 100 nM with a detection limit of 0.08 nM. The selectivity of the proposed sensor was assessed in the presence of high concentration of major interfering species. The analytical application of the sensor for the quantification of DS in pharmaceutical formulations and biological fluids (urine) was determined and the results demonstrated acceptable recovery and RSD of 5%. Statistical treatment of the results of the proposed method revealed no significant differences in the accuracy and precision. The relative standard deviations for five measurements of 50 and 300 ng mL−1 of DS were 3.9 % and 1.0 %, respectively.

Keywords: dianabol steroid, determination, modified GCE, urine

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2673 Progressive Type-I Interval Censoring with Binomial Removal-Estimation and Its Properties

Authors: Sonal Budhiraja, Biswabrata Pradhan

Abstract:

This work considers statistical inference based on progressive Type-I interval censored data with random removal. The scheme of progressive Type-I interval censoring with random removal can be described as follows. Suppose n identical items are placed on a test at time T0 = 0 under k pre-fixed inspection times at pre-specified times T1 < T2 < . . . < Tk, where Tk is the scheduled termination time of the experiment. At inspection time Ti, Ri of the remaining surviving units Si, are randomly removed from the experiment. The removal follows a binomial distribution with parameters Si and pi for i = 1, . . . , k, with pk = 1. In this censoring scheme, the number of failures in different inspection intervals and the number of randomly removed items at pre-specified inspection times are observed. Asymptotic properties of the maximum likelihood estimators (MLEs) are established under some regularity conditions. A β-content γ-level tolerance interval (TI) is determined for two parameters Weibull lifetime model using the asymptotic properties of MLEs. The minimum sample size required to achieve the desired β-content γ-level TI is determined. The performance of the MLEs and TI is studied via simulation.

Keywords: asymptotic normality, consistency, regularity conditions, simulation study, tolerance interval

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2672 Effects of Long Term Whole Body Vibration Training on Lipid Profile of Young Men

Authors: Farshad Ghazalian, Laleh Hakemi, Lotfali Pourkazemi, Maryam Ameri, Seyed Hossein Alavi

Abstract:

Background: The use of whole body vibration (WBV) as an exercise method has rapidly increased over the last decade. The aim of this study was to evaluate long term effects of different amplitudes of whole body vibration training with progressive frequencies on lipid profile of young healthy men. Materials and methods: Thirty three healthy male students were divided randomly in three groups: high amplitude vibration group (n=11), low amplitude vibration group (n=11), and control group (n=11). The vibration training consisted of 5 week whole-body vibration 3 times a week with amplitudes 4 and 2 mm and progressive frequencies from 25 Hz with increments of 5 Hz weekly. Concentrations TG, HDL, LDL, cholesterol, and VLDL before and after 5 weeks of training were measured in plasma samples. Statistical analysis was done using one way analysis of variance. P<0.05 was considered statistically significant. Results: The most important result of the present study is finding no favorable changes of 5-week vibration training with different amplitudes on blood lipid profiles. Discussion and conclusions: It was emphasized that in vibration training there should be a relationship between intensity and volume of exercise and lipid responses in order to improve blood lipoprotein profiles.

Keywords: long term, body, vibration training, lipid

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2671 Mathematics Anxiety and Attitude among Nigerian University Library and Information Science Undergraduate Students

Authors: Fredrick Olatunji Ajegbomogun, Clement Ola Adekoya

Abstract:

Mathematics has, for ages, been an essential subject in the education curriculum across the globe. The word mathematics scares the majority of undergraduate students and even more library and information science (LIS) students who have not seen the pertinence of the subject to their academic pursuits. This study investigated mathematics anxiety and attitudes among LIS undergraduate students in Nigerian universities. The study adopted a descriptive survey research design. Multi-stage and convenient sampling techniques were used for the study. Data were collected using a questionnaire and analyzed using descriptive statistical tools. It was found that mathematics is important in LIS education. The students displayed a high level of anxiety toward mathematics. The students have a negative attitude toward mathematics. However, the hypotheses tested revealed that while the LIS female undergraduate students displayed low levels of anxiety and a positive attitude toward mathematics, the level of anxiety of the male undergraduate students was high, and their attitude toward mathematics was negative. It was recommended that LIS undergraduate students develop a positive attitude towards mathematics and appreciate that the paradigm shift in the practice of librarianship is towards mathematics as a way of developing technological tools (hardware and software) to facilitate the effective delivery of library services.

Keywords: anxiety, attitude, library and information science, mathematics anxiety, undergraduate students, Nigerian universities

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2670 River Network Delineation from Sentinel 1 Synthetic Aperture Radar Data

Authors: Christopher B. Obida, George A. Blackburn, James D. Whyatt, Kirk T. Semple

Abstract:

In many regions of the world, especially in developing countries, river network data are outdated or completely absent, yet such information is critical for supporting important functions such as flood mitigation efforts, land use and transportation planning, and the management of water resources. In this study, a method was developed for delineating river networks using Sentinel 1 imagery. Unsupervised classification was applied to multi-temporal Sentinel 1 data to discriminate water bodies from other land covers then the outputs were combined to generate a single persistent water bodies product. A thinning algorithm was then used to delineate river centre lines, which were converted into vector features and built into a topologically structured geometric network. The complex river system of the Niger Delta was used to compare the performance of the Sentinel-based method against alternative freely available water body products from United States Geological Survey, European Space Agency and OpenStreetMap and a river network derived from a Shuttle Rader Topography Mission Digital Elevation Model. From both raster-based and vector-based accuracy assessments, it was found that the Sentinel-based river network products were superior to the comparator data sets by a substantial margin. The geometric river network that was constructed permitted a flow routing analysis which is important for a variety of environmental management and planning applications. The extracted network will potentially be applied for modelling dispersion of hydrocarbon pollutants in Ogoniland, a part of the Niger Delta. The approach developed in this study holds considerable potential for generating up to date, detailed river network data for the many countries where such data are deficient.

Keywords: Sentinel 1, image processing, river delineation, large scale mapping, data comparison, geometric network

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2669 A Study on the False Alarm Rates of MEWMA and MCUSUM Control Charts When the Parameters Are Estimated

Authors: Umar Farouk Abbas, Danjuma Mustapha, Hamisu Idi

Abstract:

It is now a known fact that quality is an important issue in manufacturing industries. A control chart is an integrated and powerful tool in statistical process control (SPC). The mean µ and standard deviation σ parameters are estimated. In general, the multivariate exponentially weighted moving average (MEWMA) and multivariate cumulative sum (MCUSUM) are used in the detection of small shifts in joint monitoring of several correlated variables; the charts used information from past data which makes them sensitive to small shifts. The aim of the paper is to compare the performance of Shewhart xbar, MEWMA, and MCUSUM control charts in terms of their false rates when parameters are estimated with autocorrelation. A simulation was conducted in R software to generate the average run length (ARL) values of each of the charts. After the analysis, the results show that a comparison of the false alarm rates of the charts shows that MEWMA chart has lower false alarm rates than the MCUSUM chart at various levels of parameter estimated to the number of ARL0 (in control) values. Also noticed was that the sample size has an advert effect on the false alarm of the control charts.

Keywords: average run length, MCUSUM chart, MEWMA chart, false alarm rate, parameter estimation, simulation

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2668 Effect of Coupling Media on Ultrasonic Pulse Velocity in Concrete: A Preliminary Investigation

Authors: Sura Al-Khafaji, Phil Purnell

Abstract:

Measurement of the ultrasonic pulse velocity (UPV) is an important tool in diagnostic examination of concrete. In this method piezoelectric transducers are normally held in direct contact with the concrete surface. The current study aims to test the hypothesis that a preferential coupling effect might exist i.e. that the speed of sound measured depends on the couplant used. In this study, different coupling media of varying acoustic impedance were placed between the transducers and concrete samples made with constant aggregate content but with different compressive strengths. The preliminary results show that using coupling materials (both solid and a range of liquid substances) has an effect on the pulse velocity measured in a given concrete. The effect varies depending on the material used. The UPV measurements with solid coupling were higher than these from the liquid coupling at all strength levels. The tests using couplants generally recorded lower UPV values than the conventional test, except when carbon fiber composite was used, which retuned higher values. Analysis of variances (ANOVA) was performed to confirm that there are statistically significant differences between the measurements recorded using a conventional system and a coupled system.

Keywords: compressive strength, coupling effect, statistical analysis, ultrasonic

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2667 The Role of Homocysteine in Bone and Cartilage Regeneration

Authors: Arif İsmailov, Naila Hasanova, Gunay Orujalieva

Abstract:

Homocysteine (HCY) is an indicator of prognostic value in monitoring regenerative processes in osteoporosis and osteoporotic fractures. The osteoporosis is known to be a serious health and economic problem, especially for women in the postmenopausal period. The study was carried out on patients 45-83 years old divided into 3 groups: group I – 14 patients with osteoporosis , group II – 15 patients with non-osteoporotic fractures, group III – 25 patients with osteoporotic fractures. The control group consisted of practically healthy 14 people. A blood sample was taken at 3 stages to monitor the dynamics of HCY level: on the 1st day before treatment, on the 10th day of treatment and 1 month after it. Blood levels of Hcy were determined at a wavelength of 450 nm by the ELİSA(Cloud Clone Corp.Elisa kits,USA). The statistical evaluation was performed by using SPSS 26.0 program (IBM SPSS Inc., USA).The results showed that on the 1st day before the treatment HCY concentration was statistically increased 2.7 times(PU = 0.108) in group I, 5.6 times (PU <0.001) in group II and 6.5 times (PU <0.001) in group III compared to the control group. Thus, the average value of HCY in group I was 1.76 ± 0.56 μg/ml; in group II – 3.57 ± 0.62 μg/ml; in group III – 4.2 ± 0.50 μg/ml. HCY level increases more sharply after fractures,especially in osteoporotic patients. In treatment period Vitamin D plays an important role in synthesis of the Cystathionine β‐synthase enzyme, which regulates HCY metabolism. Increased Hcy levels could lead to an increase in the risk of fracture through the interference in collagen cross-linking.

Keywords: homocysteine, osteoporosis, osteoporotic fractures, Vitamin D

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2666 Harnessing Nigeria's Forestry Potential for Structural Applications: Structural Reliability of Nigerian Grown Opepe Timber

Authors: J. I. Aguwa, S. Sadiku, M. Abdullahi

Abstract:

This study examined the structural reliability of the Nigerian grown Opepe timber as bridge beam material. The strength of a particular specie of timber depends so much on some factors such as soil and environment in which it is grown. The steps involved are collection of the Opepe timber samples, seasoning/preparation of the test specimens, determination of the strength properties/statistical analysis, development of a computer programme in FORTRAN language and finally structural reliability analysis using FORM 5 software. The result revealed that the Nigerian grown Opepe is a reliable and durable structural bridge beam material for span of 5000mm, depth of 400mm, breadth of 250mm and end bearing length of 150mm. The probabilities of failure in bending parallel to the grain, compression perpendicular to the grain, shear parallel to the grain and deflection are 1.61 x 10-7, 1.43 x 10-8, 1.93 x 10-4 and 1.51 x 10-15 respectively. The paper recommends establishment of Opepe plantation in various Local Government Areas in Nigeria for structural applications such as in bridges, railway sleepers, generation of income to the nation as well as creating employment for the numerous unemployed youths.

Keywords: bending and deflection, bridge beam, compression, Nigerian Opepe, shear, structural reliability

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2665 Spatial Orientation of Land Use Activities along Buffalo River Estuary: A Study in Buffalo City Metropolitan Municipality, Eastern Cape South Africa

Authors: A. Ngunga, M. K. Soviti, S. Nakin

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South Africa is one of the developing countries rich in estuary ecosystem. Previous studies have identified many impacts of land use activities on the pollution status of the estuaries. These land use activity and related practices are often blamed for the many pollution problems affecting the estuaries. For example, the estuarine ecosystems on a global scale are experiencing vast transformations from anthropogenic influences; Buffalo River Estuary is one of the influenced estuaries whereby the sources of pollution are unknown. These problems consequently lead to the degradation of the estuaries. The aim of the research was to establish the factors that have the potential to impact pollution status of Buffalo river estuary. Study focuses on Identifying and mapping land use activities along Buffalo River Estuary. Questionnaire survey, structured interviews, direct observation, GPS survey and ArcGIS mapping were the methods used for data collection in the area, and results were analyzed and presented by ANOVA and Microsoft Excel statistical methods. The results showed that harbour is the main source of pollution, in Buffalo River Estuary, through Ballast water discharge. Therefore that requires more concern for protecting and cleaning the estuary.

Keywords: estuary, land-use activities, pollution, mapping, water pollution

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2664 Study on Capability of the Octocopter Configurations in Finite Element Analysis Simulation Environment

Authors: Jeet Shende, Leonid Shpanin, Misko Abramiuk, Mattew Goodwin, Nicholas Pickett

Abstract:

Energy harvesting on board the Unmanned Ariel Vehicle (UAV) is one of the most rapidly growing emerging technologies and consists of the collection of small amounts of energy, for different applications, from unconventional sources that are incidental to the operation of the parent system or device. Different energy harvesting techniques have already been investigated in the multirotor drones, where the energy collected comes from the systems surrounding ambient environment and typically involves the conversion of solar, kinetic, or thermal energies into electrical energy. The energy harvesting from the vibrated propeller using the piezoelectric components inside the propeller has also been proven to be feasible. However, the impact on the UAV flight performance using this technology has not been investigated. In this contribution the impact on the multirotor drone operation has been investigated at different flight control configurations which support the efficient performance of the propeller vibration energy harvesting. The industrially made MANTIS X8-PRO octocopter frame kit was used to explore the octocopter operation which was modelled using SolidWorks 3D CAD package for simulation studies. The octocopter flight control strategy is developed through integration of the SolidWorks 3D CAD software and MATLAB/Simulink simulation environment for evaluation of the octocopter behaviour under different simulated flight modes and octocopter geometries. Analysis of the two modelled octocopter geometries and their flight performance is presented via graphical representation of simulated parameters. The possibility of not using the landing gear in octocopter geometry is demonstrated. The conducted study evaluates the octocopter’s flight control technique and its impact on the energy harvesting mechanism developed on board the octocopter. Finite Element Analysis (FEA) simulation results of the modelled octocopter in operation are presented exploring the performance of the octocopter flight control and structural configurations. Applications of both octocopter structures and their flight control strategy are discussed.

Keywords: energy harvesting, flight control modelling, object modeling, unmanned aerial vehicle

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2663 Assessment of Educational Service Quality at Master's Level in an Iranian University Using Based on HEdPERF Model

Authors: Faranak Omidian

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The aim of this research was to examine the quality of education service at master's level in the Islamic Azad University of Dezful. In terms of objective, this is an applied research and in regard to methodology, it is a descriptive analytical research. The statistical population included all students of master's degree in the Islamic Azad University of Dezful. The sample size was determined using stratified random sampling method in different fields of study. The research questionnaire is the translated version of standardized Abdullah's HEdPERF 41-item scale which is based on a 5-point Likert scale. In order to determine the validity, the translated questionnaire was given to the professors of educational sciences. The correlation among all questions has been regarded at a value of 0.644. The results showed that the quality of educational service at master's level in this university, based on chi-square goodness of fit test, was equal to 73.36 and its degree of freedom was 2 at a significant level of 0.001, indicating the low desirability of the services. According to Friedman test, academic responsiveness has been reported to be in a higher status than other dimensions with an average rank of 3.94 while accessibility, with an average rank of 2.15, has been in the lowest status from master's students' viewpoint.

Keywords: educational service quality, master's level, Iranian university

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2662 Churn Prediction for Savings Bank Customers: A Machine Learning Approach

Authors: Prashant Verma

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Commercial banks are facing immense pressure, including financial disintermediation, interest rate volatility and digital ways of finance. Retaining an existing customer is 5 to 25 less expensive than acquiring a new one. This paper explores customer churn prediction, based on various statistical & machine learning models and uses under-sampling, to improve the predictive power of these models. The results show that out of the various machine learning models, Random Forest which predicts the churn with 78% accuracy, has been found to be the most powerful model for the scenario. Customer vintage, customer’s age, average balance, occupation code, population code, average withdrawal amount, and an average number of transactions were found to be the variables with high predictive power for the churn prediction model. The model can be deployed by the commercial banks in order to avoid the customer churn so that they may retain the funds, which are kept by savings bank (SB) customers. The article suggests a customized campaign to be initiated by commercial banks to avoid SB customer churn. Hence, by giving better customer satisfaction and experience, the commercial banks can limit the customer churn and maintain their deposits.

Keywords: savings bank, customer churn, customer retention, random forests, machine learning, under-sampling

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2661 Teachers' Perceptions of Their Principals' Interpersonal Emotionally Intelligent Behaviours Affecting Their Job Satisfaction

Authors: Prakash Singh

Abstract:

For schools to be desirable places in which to work, it is necessary for principals to recognise their teachers’ emotions, and be sensitive to their needs. This necessitates that principals are capable to correctly identify their emotionally intelligent behaviours (EIBs) they need to use in order to be successful leaders. They also need to have knowledge of their emotional intelligence and be able to identify the factors and situations that evoke emotion at an interpersonal level. If a principal is able to do this, then the control and understanding of emotions and behaviours of oneself and others could improve vastly. This study focuses on the interpersonal EIBS of principals affecting the job satisfaction of teachers. The correlation coefficients in this quantitative study strongly indicate that there is a statistical significance between the respondents’ level of job satisfaction, the rating of their principals’ EIBs and how they believe their principals’ EIBs will affect their sense of job satisfaction. It can be concluded from the data obtained in this study that there is a significant correlation between the sense of job satisfaction of teachers and their principals’ interpersonal EIBs. This means that the more satisfied a teacher is at school, the more appropriate and meaningful a principal’s EIBs will be. Conversely, the more dissatisfied a teacher is at school the less appropriate and less meaningful a principal’s interpersonal EIBs will be. This implies that the leaders’ EIBs can be construed as one of the major factors affecting the job satisfaction of employees.

Keywords: emotional intelligence, teachers' emotions, teachers' job satisfaction, principals' emotionally intelligent behaviours

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2660 Subacute Toxicity Study of Total Alkaloids of Seeds of Peganum harmala in Female Rat

Authors: Mahdeb Nadia, Ghadjati Nadhra, Bettihi Sara, Daamouche Z. El Youm, Bouzidi Abdelouahab

Abstract:

The effects of subacute administration of total alkaloids of seeds Peganum harmala were studied in female Albino-Wistar rats. After intraperitoneal administration of dose 50 mg/kg for 10 days and 40 mg/kg for 7 days of total alkaloids to the seeds of Peganum harmala (animal treatment lasted 17 days), there were remarkable changes in general appearance and deaths occurred in experimental group. After 17 days a significant reduction was observed in the surviving animals treated with total alkaloid seeds.The Red Blood Cells (RBC), Hematocrit (HCT), Hemoglobin (HGB) and White blood cells (WBCs), show significant reduction in the treated groups. There were no statistical differences in Glutamic-Oxaloacetic Transaminase (GOT), Glutamic-pyruvic Transaminase (GPT) and Alkaline Phosphatase (ALP), total protein, glucose and creatinine observed between groups. However the urea was significantly higher in the treated female rats than the control group. Histological examination of liver showed no histopathological changes. Alkaloids of Peganum harmala showed significant toxicity in female rats.

Keywords: Peganum harmala, rat, liver, kidney, alkaloids, toxicity

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2659 The Determinants of Country Corruption: Unobserved Heterogeneity and Individual Choice- An empirical Application with Finite Mixture Models

Authors: Alessandra Marcelletti, Giovanni Trovato

Abstract:

Corruption in public offices is found to be the reflection of country-specific features, however, the exact magnitude and the statistical significance of its determinants effect has not yet been identified. The paper aims to propose an estimation method to measure the impact of country fundamentals on corruption, showing that covariates could differently affect the extent of corruption across countries. Thus, we exploit a model able to take into account different factors affecting the incentive to ask or to be asked for a bribe, coherently with the use of the Corruption Perception Index. We assume that discordant results achieved in literature may be explained by omitted hidden factors affecting the agents' decision process. Moreover, assuming homogeneous covariates effect may lead to unreliable conclusions since the country-specific environment is not accounted for. We apply a Finite Mixture Model with concomitant variables to 129 countries from 1995 to 2006, accounting for the impact of the initial conditions in the socio-economic structure on the corruption patterns. Our findings confirm the hypothesis of the decision process of accepting or asking for a bribe varies with specific country fundamental features.

Keywords: Corruption, Finite Mixture Models, Concomitant Variables, Countries Classification

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2658 Self-Perceived Employability of Students of International Relations of University of Warmia and Mazury in Poland

Authors: Marzena Świgoń

Abstract:

Nowadays, graduates should be prepared for serious challenges in the internal and external labor market. The notion that a degree is a “passport to employment” has been relegated to the past. In the last few years a phenomenon in the form of the increasing unemployment of highly educated young people in EU countries, including Poland has been observed. Empirical studies were conducted among Polish students in the scope of the so-called self-perceived employability review. In this study, a special scale was used which consisted of 19 statements regarding five components: student’s perception of university; field of study; self-belief; state of the external labor market; and, personal knowledge management. The respondent group consisted of final-year master’s students of International Relations at the University of Warmia and Mazury in Olsztyn, Poland. The findings of the empirical studies were compiled using statistical methods: descriptive statistics and inferential statistics. In general, in light of the conducted studies, the self-perceived employability of the Polish students was not high. Limitations of the studies were discussed, as well as the implications for future research in the scope of the students’ employability.

Keywords: self-perceived employability, students of international relations, university students, students employability

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2657 Geophysical Mapping of Anomalies Associated with Sediments of Gwandu Formation Around Argungu and Its Environs NW, Nigeria

Authors: Adamu Abubakar, Abdulganiyu Yunusa, Likkason Othniel Kamfani, Abdulrahman Idris Augie

Abstract:

This research study is being carried out in accordance with the Gwandu formation's potential exploratory activities in the inland basin of northwest Nigeria.The present research aims to identify and characterize subsurface anomalies within Gwandu formation using electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) and magnetic surveys, providing valuable insights for mineral exploration. The study utilizes various data enhancement techniques like derivatives, upward continuation, and spectral analysis alongside 2D modeling of electrical imaging profiles to analyze subsurface structures and anomalies. Data was collected through ERT and magnetic surveys, with subsequent processing including derivatives, spectral analysis, and 2D modeling. The results indicate significant subsurface structures such as faults, folds, and sedimentary layers. The study area's geoelectric and magnetic sections illustrate the depth and distribution of sedimentary formations, enhancing understanding of the geological framework. Thus, showed that the entire formations of Eocene sediment of Gwandu are overprinted by the study area's Tertiary strata. The NE to SW and E to W cross-profile for the pseudo geoelectric sections beneath the study area were generated using a two-dimensional (2D) electrical resistivity imaging. 2D magnetic modelling, upward continuation, and derivative analysis are used to delineate the signatures of subsurface magnetic anomalies. The results also revealed The sediment thickness by surface depth ranges from ∼4.06 km and ∼23.31 km. The Moho interface, the lower and upper mantle crusts boundary, and magnetic crust are all located at depths of around ∼10.23 km. The vertical distance between the local models of the foundation rocks to the north and south of the Sokoto Group was approximately ∼6 to ∼8 km and ∼4.5 km, respectively.

Keywords: high-resolution aeromagnetic data, electrical resistivity imaging, subsurface anomalies, 2d dorward modeling

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2656 A Comparative Analysis of Safety Orientation and Safety Performance in Organizations: A Project Management Perspective

Authors: Dina Alfreahat, Zoltan Sebestyen

Abstract:

Safety is considered as one of the project’s success factors. Poor safety management may result in accidents that impact human, economic, and legal issues. Therefore, it is necessary to consider safety and health as a project success factor along with other project success factors, such as time, cost, and quality. Organizations have a knowledge deficit of the implementation of long-term safety practices, and due to cost control, safety problems tend to receive the least priority. They usually assume that safety management involves expenditures unrelated to production goals, thereby considering it unnecessary for profitability and competitiveness. The purpose of this study is to introduce, analysis and identify the correlation between the orientation of the public safety procedures of an organization and the public safety standards applied in the project. Therefore, the authors develop the process and collect the possible mathematical-statistical tools supporting the previously mentioned goal. The result shows that the adoption of management to safety is a major factor in implementing the safety standard in the project and thereby improving safety performance. It may take time and effort to adopt the mindset of safety orientation service development, but at the same time, the higher organizational investment in safety and health programs will contribute to the loyalty of staff to safety compliance.

Keywords: project management perspective, safety orientation, safety performance, safety standards

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2655 Exploring Gender Bias in Self-Report Measures of Psychopathy

Authors: Katie Strong, Brian P. O'Connor, Jacqueline M. Kanippayoor

Abstract:

To date, self-report measures of psychopathy have largely been conceptualized with a male-focused understanding of the disorder, with the presumption that psychopathy expression is uniform across genders. However, generalizing this understanding to the female population may be misleading. The objective of this research was to explore gender differences in the expression of psychopathy and to assess current self-report psychopathy measures for gender bias. It was hypothesized that some items in commonly used measures of psychopathy may show gender bias and that existing measures may not contain enough items that are relevant to the manifestation of psychopathy in women. An exploratory investigation was conducted on statistical bias in common measures of psychopathy, and novel, relevant, but previously neglected items and measures were included in a new data collection. The participant pool included a sample of 403 university students and 354 participants recruited using Amazon Mechanical Turk. Item Response Theory methods - including Differential Item Functioning - were used to assess for the item- and test- level bias across several common self-report measures of psychopathy. Analyses indicated occasional and modest levels of item-level bias, and that some additional female-relevant items merit consideration for inclusion in measures of psychopathy. These findings suggest that current self-report measures of psychopathy may be demonstrating gender-bias and warrant further examination.

Keywords: gender, measurement bias, personality, psychopathy

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2654 Effect of Be, Zr, and Heat Treatment on Mechanical Behavior of Cast Al-Mg-Zn-Cu Alloys (7075)

Authors: Mahmoud M. Tash

Abstract:

The present study was undertaken to investigate the effect of aging parameters (time and temperature) on the mechanical properties of Be-and/or Zr- treated Al-Mg-Zn (7075) alloys. Ultimate tensile strength, 0.5% offset yield strength and % elongation measurements were carried out on specimens prepared from cast and heat treated 7075 alloys containing Be and/or Zr. Different aging treatment were carried out for the as solution treated (SHT) specimens. The specimens were aged at different conditions; Natural and artificial aging was carried out at room temperature, 120C, 150C, 180C and 220C for different periods of time. Duplex aging was performed for SHT conditions (pre-aged at different time and temperature followed by high temperature aging). Ultimate tensile strength, yield strength and % elongation data results as a function of different aging parameters are analysed. A statistical design of experiments (DOE) approach using fractional factorial design is applied to acquire an understanding of the effects of these variables and their interactions on the mechanical properties of Be- and/or Zr- treated 7075 alloys. Mathematical models are developed to relate the alloy mechanical properties with the different aging parameters.

Keywords: casting aging treatment, mechanical properties, Al-Mg-Zn alloys, Be- and/or Zr-treatment, experimental correlation

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2653 Short Review on Models to Estimate the Risk in the Financial Area

Authors: Tiberiu Socaciu, Tudor Colomeischi, Eugenia Iancu

Abstract:

Business failure affects in various proportions shareholders, managers, lenders (banks), suppliers, customers, the financial community, government and society as a whole. In the era in which we have telecommunications networks, exists an interdependence of markets, the effect of a failure of a company is relatively instant. To effectively manage risk exposure is thus require sophisticated support systems, supported by analytical tools to measure, monitor, manage and control operational risks that may arise. As we know, bankruptcy is a phenomenon that managers do not want no matter what stage of life is the company they direct / lead. In the analysis made by us, by the nature of economic models that are reviewed (Altman, Conan-Holder etc.), estimating the risk of bankruptcy of a company corresponds to some extent with its own business cycle tracing of the company. Various models for predicting bankruptcy take into account direct / indirect aspects such as market position, company growth trend, competition structure, characteristics and customer retention, organization and distribution, location etc. From the perspective of our research we will now review the economic models known in theory and practice for estimating the risk of bankruptcy; such models are based on indicators drawn from major accounting firms.

Keywords: Anglo-Saxon models, continental models, national models, statistical models

Procedia PDF Downloads 405