The Effect of Arms Embargoes on Ongoing Armed Conflict: Are They Really Reducing Conflict Duration?

Authors: Mustafa Kirisci

Abstract:

Arms embargoes have not been adequately examined in terms of their effects on conflict duration. Prior research on arms embargoes has generally investigated the effect of arms embargoes on arms import/export practices and violations in arms embargoes, but it says little about the effect on conflict duration. This paper attempts to fill this gap and aims to investigate the effect of arms embargoes on conflict duration throughout the world. More precisely, the purpose of the paper is to understand how arms embargoes affect the duration of both internal and interstate conflicts. Given the theoretical framework, the main hypothesis of the paper is arms embargoes will have no reduction effect on conflict duration when arms transfer and region are controlled. This hypothesis is tested by using OLS regression. Results indicate that arms embargoes have no effect on both internal and interstate conflict duration. Another crucial result is that both small and major arms transfers made by the embargoed countries during the internal conflict increase the duration of the conflict, but no effect on interstate conflict duration. The final part concludes and provide explanations on what these results imply for finishing the conflict and bringing the peace.

Keywords: arms embargo, arms transfer, internal conflict, international conflict