Study on the Effect of Road Infrastructure, Socio-Economic and Demographic Features on Road Crashes in Bangladesh

Authors: Shakil M. Rifaat, Md. H. Rahman, Mohammed, Mosabbir Pasha

Abstract:

Road crashes not only claim lives and inflict injuries but also create economic burden to the society due to loss of productivity. The problem of deaths and injuries as a result of road traffic crashes is now acknowledged to be a global phenomenon with authorities in virtually all countries of the world concerned about the growth in the number of people killed and seriously injured on their roads. However, the road crash scenario of a developing country like Bangladesh is much worse comparing with this of developed countries. For developing proper countermeasures it is necessary to identify the factors affecting crash occurrences. The objectives of the study is to examine the effect of district wise road infrastructure, socioeconomic and demographic features on crash occurrence .The unit of analysis will be taken as individual district which has not been explored much in the past. Reported crash data obtained from Bangladesh Road Transport Authority (BRTA) from the year 2004 to 2010 are utilized to develop negative binomial model. The model result will reveal the effect of road length (both paved and unpaved), road infrastructure and several socio economic characteristics on district level crash frequency in Bangladesh.

Keywords: Demographic, Negative Binomial Model, Road Infrastructure, Socio-economic, Traffic Safety.

Digital Object Identifier (DOI): doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1093466

References:

[1] M. Peden, R. Scurfield, and D. Sleet, E. Jarawan, and C. Mathers, World Report on Road Traffic Injury Prevention, World Health Organization, Geneva, 2004.
[2] Transport Canada, Road Safety in Canada, Transport Canada, Ottawa, TP 15145E, ISBN 978-1-100-18621-4, 2011.
[3] M. M. R. Sheikh, "A Statistical Analysis of Road Traffic Accidents and Casualties in Bangladesh,” M.S. thesis, Dept. Civil Eng., Napier Univ., Germany, 2004.
[4] A. A. Jahan, "Road safety countermeasures and traffic calming practices in Roads and Highways Department in Bangladesh,” in Proc. International Conference on Road Safety, Dhaka, Bangladesh, 2006, pp.120-123.
[5] M. M. Hoque, M. F. Rahman , S. Sarkar, and M. Ashrafuzzaman, "Hazardous road locations on national highways in Bangladesh,” in Proc. International Conference on Road Safety, Dhaka, Bangladesh, 2006 , pp.229-237.
[6] M. M. Hoque, "The road to road safety: Issues and initiatives in Bangladesh”, in Proc. 2nd Asian Regional Conference on Safe Community and 1st Bangladesh Conference on Injury Prevention, Dhaka, 2004.
[7] R.Tay, and S. M. Rifaat, "Factors contributing to the severity of crashes at intersections,” Journal of Advanced Transportation, Vol. 41, No. 3, pp.245-265, 2007.
[8] X. Wang, and M. Abdel-Aty, "Analysis of left-turn crash injury severity by conflicting pattern using partial proportional odds models,” Accident Analysis and Prevention, Vol. 40, pp.1674- 1682, 2008.
[9] R. B. Noland, and L. Oh, "The effect of infrastructure and demographic change on traffic-related fatalities and crashes: a case study of Illinois country-level data,” Accident Analysis Prevention, 36, pp.525–532, 2004.
[10] D. J. Graham, and S. Glaister, "Spatial variation in road pedestrian casualties: the role of urban scale, density and land use mix,” Urban Studies, Vol. 40, No. 8, pp.1591–1607, 2003.
[11] S. Rahman, S., "Development of an Accident Prediction Model for Intersections of Dhaka City, Bangladesh,” International Journal of Computer Applications, Vol. 47, No. 16, pp.10-16, 2012.
[12] M. S. Haque., and K. G. Meraz, "Study of hazard index on Ambarkhana to Bandar, Under Sylhet City Corporation,” Journal of civil engineering, The institution of engineers Bangladesh, Vol. 36, pp.15-23, 2008.
[13] S. Joshua, and N. Garber, "Estimating truck accident rate and involvement using linear and Poisson regression model,” Transportation Planning and Technology, Vol. 15, pp.41-58, 1990.
[14] S. P. Miaou, "The relationship between truck accidents and geometric design of road section: poisson versus negative binomial regression,” Accident Analysis and Prevention, Vol. 26, pp.471-482, 1994.
[15] E. Amoros, J. L. Martin., and B. Laumon, "Comparison of road crashes incidence and severity between some French counties,” Accident Analysis and Prevention, 35, pp.537–547, 2003.
[16] A. Hadayeghi, A. S. Shalaby, B. N. Persaud, B. N. and C. Cheung. C., "Temporal transferability and updating of zonal level accident prediction model,” Accident Analysis and Prevention, 38, pp.579-589, 2006.
[17] J. A. Valverde, and P. P. Jovanis, "Spatial analysis of fatal and injury crashes in Pennsylvania,” Accident Analysis and Prevention, 38, pp.618-625, 2006.