Reliability Assessment of Bangladesh Power System Using Recursive Algorithm

Authors: Nahid-Al-Masood, Jubaer Ahmed, Amina Hasan Abedin, S. R. Deeba, Faeza Hafiz, Mahmuda Begum

Abstract:

An electric utility-s main concern is to plan, design, operate and maintain its power supply to provide an acceptable level of reliability to its users. This clearly requires that standards of reliability be specified and used in all three sectors of the power system, i.e., generation, transmission and distribution. That is why reliability of a power system is always a major concern to power system planners. This paper presents the reliability analysis of Bangladesh Power System (BPS). Reliability index, loss of load probability (LOLP) of BPS is evaluated using recursive algorithm and considering no de-rated states of generators. BPS has sixty one generators and a total installed capacity of 5275 MW. The maximum demand of BPS is about 5000 MW. The relevant data of the generators and hourly load profiles are collected from the National Load Dispatch Center (NLDC) of Bangladesh and reliability index 'LOLP' is assessed for the period of last ten years.

Keywords: Recursive algorithm, LOLP, forced outage rate, cumulative probability.

Digital Object Identifier (DOI): doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1085846

References:

[1] Marco Cepin. "Assesment of power system reliability-Methods and applications", Springer-Verlag London Limited 2011
[2] R. Billinton and R.N.Allan, "Reliability evaluation of power system". Plenum Press, New York,1996
[3] C. Singh, and R. Billinton, System Reliability Modeling and Evaluation, London, U.K., Hutchinson Educational, 1977.
[4] R. Billinton , and G. Singh, "Application of Adverse and Extreme Adverse Weather: Modeling in Transmission and Distribution System Reliability Evaluation," Proc. Inst. Elect. Eng., Gen., Transm., Distrib., vol. 153, no. 1, pp. 115-120, Jan. 2006.
[5] C. Dichirico, and C. Singh, "Reliability Analysis of Transmission Lines with Common Mode Failures When Repair Times are Arbitrarily Distributed," IEEE Trans. Power Syst., vol. 3, no. 3, pp. 1012-1019, Aug. 1988.
[6] R. Billinton, and W. Li, "A Novel Method for Incorporating Weather Effects in Composite System Adequacy Evaluation," IEEE Trans. Power Syst., vol. 6, no. 3, pp. 1154-1160, Aug. 1991.
[7] M. R. Bhuiyan and R. N. Allan, "Inclusion of Weather Effects in Composite System Reliability Evaluation Using Sequential Simulation," Proc. Inst. Elect. Eng., Gen., Transm., Distrib., vol. 141, no. 6, pp. 575- 584, Nov. 1994.
[8] Yong Liu, and Singh, C., "Reliability Evaluation of Composite Power Systems Using Markov Cut-Set Method", IEEE Trans. Power Syst., vol. 25, no. 2, pp. 777-785, May 2010.
[9] Guest Editorial, "Alternative Representations of Epistemic Uncertainty", Reliability Engineering and System Safety 85 (2004), pp. 1-10.
[10] F. Owen Hoffman, and Jana S. Hammonds, "Propagation of Uncertainty in Risk Assessments: The Need to Distinguish Between Uncertainty Due to Lack of Knowledge and Uncertainty Due to Variability", Risk Analysis, vol. 14, no. 5, pp. 707-712, 1994.
[11] Roy Billinton, and Dange Huang, "Aleatory and Epistemic Uncertainty Considerations in Power System Reliability Evaluation", Proc. Inst. Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems, pp. 1-8, May 2008.
[12] Li, W. "Incorporating Aging Failures in Power System Reliability Evaluation" , IEEE Power Engineering Review, vol. 22, no. 7, pp. 59, July 2002.
[13] R. A. Davidson, H. Liu, I. K. Sarpong, P. Sparks, and D. V. Rosowsky, "Electric Power Distribution System Performance in Carolina Hurricanes," Nat. Haz. Rev., vol. 4, no. 1, pp. 36-45, Feb. 2003.
[14] H. Liu, R. A. Davidson, D. V. Rosowsky, and J. R. Stedinger, "Negative Binomial Regression of Electric Power Outages in Hurricanes," J. Infrastruct. Syst., vol. 11, no. 4, pp. 258-267, Dec. 2005.
[15] Jonnavithula, S., and Billinton, R., "Topological Analysis in Bulk Power System Reliability Evaluation", IEEE Trans. Power Syst., vol. 12, no. 1, pp. 456-463, Feb. 1997.