%0 Journal Article %A Eleftherios Giovanis %D 2010 %J International Journal of Economics and Management Engineering %B World Academy of Science, Engineering and Technology %I Open Science Index 43, 2010 %T Application of Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System in the Prediction of Economic Crisis Periods in USA %U https://publications.waset.org/pdf/7444 %V 43 %X In this paper discrete choice models, Logit and Probit are examined in order to predict the economic recession or expansion periods in USA. Additionally we propose an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system with triangular membership function. We examine the in-sample period 1947-2005 and we test the models in the out-of sample period 2006-2009. The forecasting results indicate that the Adaptive Neuro-fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) model outperforms significant the Logit and Probit models in the out-of sample period. This indicates that neuro-fuzzy model provides a better and more reliable signal on whether or not a financial crisis will take place. %P 1715 - 1720