%0 Journal Article
	%A Hamid R. S. Mojaveri and  Seyed S. Mousavi and  Mojtaba Heydar and  Ahmad Aminian
	%D 2009
	%J International Journal of Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering
	%B World Academy of Science, Engineering and Technology
	%I Open Science Index 25, 2009
	%T Validation and Selection between Machine Learning Technique and Traditional Methods to Reduce Bullwhip Effects: a Data Mining Approach
	%U https://publications.waset.org/pdf/4950
	%V 25
	%X The aim of this paper is to present a methodology in
three steps to forecast supply chain demand. In first step, various data
mining techniques are applied in order to prepare data for entering
into forecasting models. In second step, the modeling step, an
artificial neural network and support vector machine is presented
after defining Mean Absolute Percentage Error index for measuring
error. The structure of artificial neural network is selected based on
previous researchers' results and in this article the accuracy of
network is increased by using sensitivity analysis. The best forecast
for classical forecasting methods (Moving Average, Exponential
Smoothing, and Exponential Smoothing with Trend) is resulted based
on prepared data and this forecast is compared with result of support
vector machine and proposed artificial neural network. The results
show that artificial neural network can forecast more precisely in
comparison with other methods. Finally, forecasting methods'
stability is analyzed by using raw data and even the effectiveness of
clustering analysis is measured.
	%P 48 - 54