@article{(Open Science Index):https://publications.waset.org/pdf/15033, title = {Forecasting Malaria Cases in Bujumbura}, author = {Hermenegilde Nkurunziza and Albrecht Gebhardt and Juergen Pilz}, country = {}, institution = {}, abstract = {The focus in this work is to assess which method allows a better forecasting of malaria cases in Bujumbura ( Burundi) when taking into account association between climatic factors and the disease. For the period 1996-2007, real monthly data on both malaria epidemiology and climate in Bujumbura are described and analyzed. We propose a hierarchical approach to achieve our objective. We first fit a Generalized Additive Model to malaria cases to obtain an accurate predictor, which is then used to predict future observations. Various well-known forecasting methods are compared leading to different results. Based on in-sample mean average percentage error (MAPE), the multiplicative exponential smoothing state space model with multiplicative error and seasonality performed better.}, journal = {International Journal of Mathematical and Computational Sciences}, volume = {4}, number = {1}, year = {2010}, pages = {14 - 19}, ee = {https://publications.waset.org/pdf/15033}, url = {https://publications.waset.org/vol/37}, bibsource = {https://publications.waset.org/}, issn = {eISSN: 1307-6892}, publisher = {World Academy of Science, Engineering and Technology}, index = {Open Science Index 37, 2010}, }