%0 Journal Article
	%A Elison Eduardo Jardim Bierhals and  Claudineia Brazil and  Deivid Pires and  Rafael Haag and  Elton Gimenez Rossini
	%D 2019
	%J International Journal of Energy and Environmental Engineering
	%B World Academy of Science, Engineering and Technology
	%I Open Science Index 147, 2019
	%T Uncertainty of the Brazilian Earth System Model for Solar Radiation 
	%U https://publications.waset.org/pdf/10010122
	%V 147
	%X This study evaluated the uncertainties involved in the solar radiation projections generated by the Brazilian Earth System Model (BESM) of the Weather and Climate Prediction Center (CPTEC) belonging to Coupled Model Intercomparison Phase 5 (CMIP5), with the aim of identifying efficiency in the projections for solar radiation of said model and in this way establish the viability of its use. Two different scenarios elaborated by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were evaluated: RCP 4.5 (with more optimistic contour conditions) and 8.5 (with more pessimistic initial conditions). The method used to verify the accuracy of the present model was the Nash coefficient and the Statistical bias, as it better represents these atmospheric patterns. The BESM showed a tendency to overestimate the data ​​of solar radiation projections in most regions of the state of Rio Grande do Sul and through the validation methods adopted by this study, BESM did not present a satisfactory accuracy.

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