{"title":"Spatial Variation of WRF Model Rainfall Prediction over Uganda","authors":"Isaac Mugume, Charles Basalirwa, Daniel Waiswa, Triphonia Ngailo","volume":127,"journal":"International Journal of Marine and Environmental Sciences","pagesStart":630,"pagesEnd":635,"ISSN":"1307-6892","URL":"https:\/\/publications.waset.org\/pdf\/10007552","abstract":"Rainfall is a major climatic parameter affecting
\r\nmany sectors such as health, agriculture and water resources. Its
\r\nquantitative prediction remains a challenge to weather forecasters
\r\nalthough numerical weather prediction models are increasingly being
\r\nused for rainfall prediction. The performance of six convective
\r\nparameterization schemes, namely the Kain-Fritsch scheme, the
\r\nBetts-Miller-Janjic scheme, the Grell-Deveny scheme, the Grell-3D
\r\nscheme, the Grell-Fretas scheme, the New Tiedke scheme of the
\r\nweather research and forecast (WRF) model regarding quantitative
\r\nrainfall prediction over Uganda is investigated using the root mean
\r\nsquare error for the March-May (MAM) 2013 season. The MAM
\r\n2013 seasonal rainfall amount ranged from 200 mm to 900 mm over
\r\nUganda with northern region receiving comparatively lower rainfall
\r\namount (200–500 mm); western Uganda (270–550 mm); eastern
\r\nUganda (400–900 mm) and the lake Victoria basin (400–650 mm). A
\r\nspatial variation in simulated rainfall amount by different convective
\r\nparameterization schemes was noted with the Kain-Fritsch scheme
\r\nover estimating the rainfall amount over northern Uganda (300–750
\r\nmm) but also presented comparable rainfall amounts over the eastern
\r\nUganda (400–900 mm). The Betts-Miller-Janjic, the Grell-Deveny,
\r\nand the Grell-3D underestimated the rainfall amount over most
\r\nparts of the country especially the eastern region (300–600 mm).
\r\nThe Grell-Fretas captured rainfall amount over the northern region
\r\n(250–450 mm) but also underestimated rainfall over the lake Victoria
\r\nBasin (150–300 mm) while the New Tiedke generally underestimated
\r\nrainfall amount over many areas of Uganda. For deterministic rainfall
\r\nprediction, the Grell-Fretas is recommended for rainfall prediction
\r\nover northern Uganda while the Kain-Fritsch scheme is recommended
\r\nover eastern region.","references":"[1] I. Mugume, M. D. Mesquita, C. Basalirwa, Y. Bamutaze, J. Reuder,\r\nA. Nimusiima, D. Waiswa, G. Mujuni, S. Tao, and T. Jacob Ngailo,\r\n\u201cPatterns of dekadal rainfall variation over a selected region in lake\r\nvictoria basin, uganda,\u201d Atmosphere, vol. 7, no. 11, p. 150, 2016.\r\n[2] B. A. Ogwang, H. Chen, X. Li, and C. Gao, \u201cThe influence of\r\ntopography on east african october to december climate: sensitivity\r\nexperiments with regcm4,\u201d Advances in Meteorology, vol. 2014, 2014.\r\n[3] S.W. Karuri and R.W. Snow, \u201cForecasting paediatric malaria admissions\r\non the kenya coast using rainfall,\u201d Global health action, vol. 9, 2016.\r\n[4] A. T. Kabo-Bah, C. J. Diji, K. Nokoe, Y. Mulugetta, D. Obeng-Ofori, and\r\nK. Akpoti, \u201cMultiyear rainfall and temperature trends in the volta river\r\nbasin and their potential impact on hydropower generation in ghana,\u201d\r\nClimate, vol. 4, no. 4, p. 49, 2016.\r\n[5] S. 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